I think Ike is one of the ones who will vary by matchup. I think Eruption 2 and 3 will prove dominant (mostly 2, probably), Quick Draw 2, Aether 2, and Counter 1 and 3. I'm unconvinced that Eruption 1 or Quick Draw 3 will ultimately prove the best option for any/many matchups, but it's possible.
san? Thoughts?
Ike's vary by matchup, what other custom moves he's using, and personal preference. I suppose it's more up to preference since Ike never had the opportunity to use his specials offensively all that much until this iteration, and many are comfortable to use the ones that complements their playstyle. None of them are that bad except for Counter3.
After using these specials for the last week and a half or so, here are my overall thoughts on some of his best customs, and I agree that it's 2,2,2,2 though all of his defaults bar Eruption have some traits that may be preferable in other situations.
Eruption 2- Tempest:
I think this is his best custom. The windbox is very powerful and completely shuts down recoveries that don't sweetspot the edge correctly or covered by projectiles. The longer it's charged, the larger the radius on the windbox and the longer it lasts. With just this, it's a powerful gimmick, but it's true utility lies offstage.
You can spam it offstage with impunity because it lifts you up the longer you charge or if you're rising upon release while blowing away those nearby. This allows you to use it 3-5 times offstage before returning back and allows you to mix it up with your own aerials. Double jump + eruption2 doubles its height, so you can go quite far offstage and spam windboxes and aerials at your opponent. It also has an okay-ish hitbox underneath to retaliate against other attacks and tethers.
Once it's nearly fully charged and beyond, super armor activates upon release, making it even more useful. You can shield and air dodge the windbox, but a fully charged blast lasts longer than the air dodge, making it a little difficult to avoid in some situations when launched in the air.
I truly think that Eruption2 is a dumb/unfair move. If it doesn't gimp, it's highly disruptive and at least sets up for various other attacks and methods.
Eruption 3 has a huge and long-lasting hitbox, and I still think that Eruption 2 is going to be more useful on average.
Quick Draw 2- Close Combat:
People mentioned that it has more cooldown, but that's a little incorrect. There are lingering hitboxes almost until you're able to act again when used on the ground, dealing 3-7% and knocking the opponent slightly behind Ike. It also appears to be faster than QD1 and active for a farther distance. There's really not much to say. It's chargeable and holdable, beats most aerials and specials, beats or clanks with most grounded attacks (if you can time such a thing), and can trade with a good amount of attacks that usually beat it.
Aether2- Aether Drive:
I think this disappointed me a little bit with its vertical reach, but it has some nice properties. Mixed with Eruption 2 and QD 1 or 2, you can attack offstage and recover without worry because of the many high priority/super armor recovery options. It also combos at mid to middle-high %s, dealing a notable 27%. It can be combo'd into from nair at mid % depending on the enemy's size and rage/VI for ~33-34 damage.
Counter2- Paralyzing Counter:
I've never been much of a counter person, so a really situational one that leads to a partially charged upsmash or grab is much more valuable to me than the default despite it being overall buffed. There are times where I'll probably never use it in a match, but a threat of a KO after 100 with a single read on any hit is too good to pass up that implicit danger.
To go through the other ones quickly:
-Eruption2 is weak against teleporting, projectiles, and DK's upB, while Eruption3 excels in most edgeguarding situation at the cost of power and a % penalty when halfway charged and over.
-Aether3 is quick and deals great shield damage. It's spammable against opponents in the air and retains some super armor even after landing. This is good as a quicker option against gimpers, while aether2 can be good against everyone. If you have Aether3, you may want QD1 for an easier recovery or QD2 if you're confident enough.
-Quick Draw 3 is just another kill move available that can be easier to use than counter. If you don't use QD much to recover, it's a good option. It's also decent against those who like to gimp with aerials since QD3 will super armor any of their attempts. You're almost guaranteed the edge if you're close enough.
-Counter1 is what it is. It's quicker in this game and can kill at high percents when countering smashes. The existence of an easy counter option may be more comfortable than the tougher read that Counter2 requires. You could also argue that the initial frames are the most important anyways and the lingering counter active frames are lost against a good player.