It blows my mind that people seem to think that doing a late aerial into the ground should be a relatively safe action.
In order to connect with a shield with a low aerial, you have to put them in a position where they are passive, since it takes too long to get to them if you do a late aerial. This game also has fairly reliable anti-airs that not only beat most aerials, but are especially punishing, like utilts for true combos, and up-smashes that kill. Some Up-Bs and u-smashes even have invincibility frames like a Street Fighter DP.
So let me ask you this: If anti-airs exist, why
should late aerials be unsafe? The jumper already would have to force them to shield and/or get through the anti-air. Isn't that risky enough? Does the jumper not deserve to earn anything from having the initiative?
I mean, the mix up
could be:
-Late aerial "beats" shield - reward is safe negative frames, but if it hits it would lead to a true combo or at least +frames
-Any attack beats late aerial - reward is a true combo or juggle
-Early aerial beats some attacks - reward is some damage and +frames
-Anti-air/disjoints beat all aerial timings - reward is a true combo or juggle
-Shielding beats early aerial - reward is out of shield punishes
-Early fastfall or air dodge beats anti-airs? - not always possible but the reward is a dash grab or attack as a whiff punish
-Wait and bait beats anti-airs - If you are close enough and the air-speed is fast enough that it's impossible to anti-air on reaction, they'll forced to anti-air on prediction to beat aerials. This could be baited. Reward is a dashing punish or +frames.
Result: It's dangerous to jump-in if the opponent is looking for it and is ready to react with an anti-air, or, if the character lacks strong anti-airs they must read the aerial attack timing.
But instead, it's:
-Late aerial beats no defensive response from the opponent - reward is damage and either - or + frames, rarely a combo, if it hits
-Any attack beats late aerial - reward is a true combo or juggle
-Early aerial beats some attacks - reward is some damage but -frames
-Anti-air/disjoints beat all aerial timings - reward is a true combo or juggle
-Shielding beats early aerial - reward is out of shield punishes
-Shielding beats late aerial - reward is shield grab
-Early fastfall or air dodge beats anti-airs? - not always possible but the reward is a dash grab or attack as a whiff punish
-Wait and bait beats anti-airs - If you are close enough and the air-speed is fast enough that it's impossible to anti-air on reaction, they'll forced to anti-air on prediction to beat aerials. This could be baited. Reward is a dashing punish or +frames.
Result: Why would you try and anti-air? Just shield, it beats everything. Guy jumping in? Sorry, you can't do that. Instead you can only do aerials that auto-cancel, allow you to fade away, or avoid punishment in some way. You can't really jump in, you only poke at them and fade back/crossup. Instead of being able to choose between that less committal but less rewarding set of options and a high risk, high reward committed mixups, you can only play low risk, low reward or high risk, low-medium reward, no matter what position you have your opponent in.
It would absolutely be better if the game had less landing lag or shield stun from aerials. I don't think long range aerials deserve to be safe unless they are spaced, though. Safe attacks give you reward for taking the initiative. I don't think the current system does that.
