Wow, you don't know Mr Game and Watch that well, do you? You've pretty much put out that he has nothing going for him against a "good zelda" besides his bucket, and even that you're underestimating. You even made things up! How very un-classy.
The chef can't be put away quickly enough to avoid din's fire. Let alone pull out a bucket in time. Maybe if zelda was at max distace doing so, but why would she be? No way G&W can kill zelda at as low of % as she can kill him. Zelda's lightning kick, for example, is more powerful than any move in G&W's repetoir save a lucky "9" hammer. not only this, but G&W is lighter than anyone save jigglypuff. I'm betting a lighting kick will kill at lower than 40% damage. And don't say: ignore that, it's hard to hit with. because zelda can hit with it in either direction, a good zelda is capable of landing it often enough and, even if it never connects the whole match, it keeps G&W from getting close to her in the air unless he wants to risk certain death.
Actually, it can be put away. If Zelda is close as she can get, without getting hit (Otherwise, if the food things hit her the Din's fire is null) and G&W is using Chef, I can consistently drop it into a bucket. It's not that hard, especially once you see her starting up the attack. You also must understand that not all G&W's use the chef, so I really don't know why you brought that up. Point is, you can bucket out of chef.
Now to your next point...
I call BS. Not one of Zelda's moves can kill G&W at 40%. In fact, every single attack in Zelda's repertoire, with the exception of her Fair/Bair, only starts killing G&W at 100% damage. You claim that she has better killing options? Barely. Here, I did a quick test in training mode to see at what percents Zelda killed G&W and what percents he killed her. These are taken from the center of Final Destination, and DI is
used.
Kill Percents (WITH DI)
G&W Fsmash - 75%
G&W Dsmash - 71%
G&W Usmash - 70%
G&W Fair - 123%
Zelda Fsmash - Over 120%
Zelda Dsmash - 130ish?
Zelda Usmash - 105% (last hit of the attack)
Zelda Fair - 75% Sweetspotted
I was more precise with G&W's, and got sloppy with Zelda. Regardless, she clearly does not have the advantage over G&W when it comes to killing. Some other things I checked were throws, and those didnt kill until the mid to high 100s. I also took account that the smash attack did multiple hits for the Usmash, and only got hit with the last hit. I forgot to only get hit by the last hit of the Fsmash, so its a bit off, of course. Theres also the fact that two of those hit multiple times before shooting G&W off. G&W can easily DI in the middle of the hits, so DIing your attacks are easy. G&W's attacks can be quite sudden, giving a large chance of you DIing incorrectly or even forgetting to do that!
The 40% is way off.
G&W can shut down your projectiles AND has superior killing options thus far.
as for ground game, He can't chef her because he'll get din's fired for doing so, but zelda can't din's fire offensively because it'll get bucketed for doing so. Zelda's dash attack has loads of priority making it a great approach, especially considering that, once airborne, G&W has absolutely nothing (even donkey kong Jr AKA key) which can break through her U smash. His Fire is quite threatening, but is outranged by zelda's Fsmash. His Dsmash is also threatening, but is far outsped by zelda's . If zelda can range G&W properly, he shouldn't stand much of a chance at all in the matchup.
As I just mentioned, the whole argument that chef is useless because of Din's Fire is wrong. He can bucket.
The thing is, without Din's fire, you're going to have to approach now. Zelda's approaching options are sorta... limited. Her Dash attack is predictable, easy to punish, and can be shield grabbed. G&W's Bair can easily eat through it, and I would not be surprised in the least if G&W's Dtilt broke through it. His dash attack would cancel out her dash attack (this is just novelty information, it's not like I'd go to cancel your out in a match; I would just punish you normally.). Face it. She's more geared to forcing an approach than approaching herself.
And airborne G&W useless? hahaha
Obviously he's not going to use Uair into your Usmash, so bringing up any of his aerials save his Dair is stupid.
But lefts go into your claim that key cant break her Usmash. G&W's Key, when getting momentum, and as long as it hasn't just started up or is finishing up, will break through Zelda's Usmash. His Dair out prioritizes her smash; The kay will break through every spark, and will only take damage on the second hit, but he will still go through and hit her, knocking her back. She can still hit G&W if he mistimes the key. Did you know he could easily bait an usmash by doing his Dair, and thne slowfalling it?
How do you propose she deal with the Turtle? It outranges her Fsmash. The Dtilt? It outranges everything of hers, save the Fsmash (which you can do a quick turtle to punish). If it comes to a battle of pokes, G&W will usually win. His Dsmah is slower, but has more range and far more power.
Try to outspace him. He forces an approach from you, has attacks the out prioritizes your own, and has a spacing game on par with hers.
Game and watch and zelda both have recoveries that the other character is pretty much incapable of gimping, though zelda's is often punishable if she's forced to land on the stage, and G&W is a sitting duck for din's fire after using his unless he opts to drop the parachute.
She's very punishable with her recovery. G&W isn't
If he's coming onto the stage from above with parachute, he can easily go into bucket.
If he's coming from under, he can just sweetspot the ledge, and use his invincibility frames to negate Din's Fire, OR he can pull away from the ledge and quickly bucket.
Basically, what G&W has going for him in the matchup is that he reduces zelda's projectile game... but reducing part of another character's game isn't enough to say: favoured in matchup, unless this character can actually best the other in other ways. G&W has faster moves than zelda. He's capable of outspeeding her with a powerful attack if he gets in close, but he can't outrange her, and doesn't outprioritize her either. Add to that the fact that he's lighter weight and is, overall weaker you just don't have a winning hand there. I mean, don't get me wrong, G&W is good enough to stand a fighting chance in this match, maybe even make it close to even, but zelda is so much more than din's fire alone, and he doesn't have much of an answer to any of her other aspects.
I'm sorry to say, but she does not out range him, and she does not out prioritize him either. They both have options when it comes to range and priority, and Zelda doesn't have the better ones to work with. I'm not saying G&W's are superior, but they're close enough that it's just silly to claim that Zelda shuts down G&W in these areas.
And lighter and weaker? No. G&W has more options of killing, and they're far stronger and harder to DI against. Despite his light frame, he deals with her comparable weak moves with good Directional Influence. He kills far sooner than she does, except for her kick, which isn't a problem because he can still take her in close combat and worry little about it. Turtle wins.
and no zelda worth her salt is going to feed you 3 din's fires... not saying to ignore the bucket; the fact alone that you have the move prevents zelda from using Din's fire as offensively as she might, but saying that G&W's bucket can auto kill zelda with his bucket is just silly. It can happen, but it's a rare enough occurance not to make a whole lot of difference in the match beyond the implications just stated. Besides, once he has a full bucket, he's used his trup card, he can no longer suck up her other fires. Don't misread me, I' not saying that filling up a G&W bucket is a GOOD idea, but I'm saying that, if it happens, zelda is more than capable of capatilizing on it to kind of do some damage control.
Once the bucket is full, others spamming projectiles does become somewhat a problem.
Not so much, though.
Because both Fair and the Key totally cancel out Din's Fire. The Jab, the Hammers, and a few others cancel out it to, but the Fair and Dair cancel it out around the whole body, similar to Yoshi's Nair.
Now when you're close, you play a lot differently, because that is the amazing mindgame that is the bucket.
G&W has the advantage.
http://smashboards.com/showthread.php?t=158672
Even the Zelda guide sees this as a hard matchup.