Official Smash Ultimate Discussion

[Luigi The President]

And Vergeben openly said not long after the mentioned the SE character that he and his sources ignore any instance of Geno being brought up/"Geno isn't seriously considered".

To me at last, that's an aggressively backhanded deconfirmation if there was one.

Excuse me what this. Didn't happen, lmao

 

[StrawHatX]

That isn't my point dude. Obviously Sora is a bigger dollar sign. But the thing is his inclusion as DLC is not gonna outweigh some of the cons he brings. He's promoting direct competition, why do people keep shrugging this point off?

Do you think Nintendo would have some sort of problem advertising KH3 because it’s on the PS4 and Xbox? They still get Sora in SMash which helps advertise Smash and the Switch. We’ve had Snake is Smash. Cloud was in Smash long before we heard about a FF7 port. I think you’re thinking way too hard about it.

And we’ve had KH games on handhelds already. Disney and Square have already worked with Nintendo before on KH stuff. I don’t see the problem.

You really think Nintendo will push for a character that sells them a few more classics and that Square most likely doesn’t want to promote as opposed to adding to their new friendship with Square and putting a popular character like Sora in a Smash that advertises Smash better and further promotes KH3?

 

[Diem]

High 80s on metacritic, 1.8 million units shipped by the end of the 205-2016 fiscal year... "not very well received" my ***. The vocal echo chamber doesn't reflect jack in terms of critical and commercial success; oftentimes, it runs directly counter to it.

Of course there's a difference between what the critics and sales say and what people online say. But good sales and reviews don't do a whole lot of good if later word of mouth is negative. If you get good reviews from critics and good initial sales, that's a short-term good. But the following months and years are full of people grumbling about the game, that's a long-term problem, because then people's expectations for the new game are being colored by how the old one was.

The Evil Within sold well and reviewed well, but the general consensus later on was negative. Then last year, The Evil Within 2 came out, and it was seriously improved over the first game, remedying a lot of the flaws, but because there was already such a lukewarm-to-negative perception of the first one, it sold poorly, despite it being considered much better.

Mass Effect 3 also received glowing reviews and huge sales. Safe to say, those metrics don't reflect the general consensus of that game, either.

 

[doomedtacox]

So I'll say this much about Geno:

I don't think his chances are zero. The only reason I don't think his chances are zero is because I believe Vergeben, and while he doesn't make sense as a choice basically every other possible Square Rep feels like a really dubious choice as well.

A Dragon Quest character is being touted as a likely choice, but I stand by my previous statement that I really doubt it. Dragon Quest is a "literal who" franchise in the west, and I doubt Nintendo want to pick out a character who's going to sell like garbage in most of the world. People like to claim "cross-promotion!", but Nintendo don't even own Dragon Quest. I could see them being willing to sacrifice DLC sales to cross-promote a first-party character they're profiting directly from, but to promote a third-party character from games on their system? Nah.

Sora I think very much fits the bill of a character that would fit right in for Smash, but I do acknowledge the points that adding Sora is advertising a game that's not even coming to a Nintendo platform, and that the licensing hell may turn Nintendo off. Someone pointed out that Ryu, Cloud, and Snake all potentially advertised games that were not coming to a Nintendo console, but that neglects to consider that those selections were made and the licensing was handled purely by Sakurai. Let Nintendo itself make the decisions and they're more likely to consider how selections influence the company as a whole as opposed to just Smash Bros. I don't think Sora is impossible, I just think this creates some obstacles in the way of him being an "obvious choice".

What else do Square have? Not a lot. Every other Final Fantasy character suffers from a lack of iconicism (save perhaps Sephiroth) to pull in sales, or the same problem as Sora of not even hailing from a game on a Nintendo platform. Same goes for Lara Croft (who I suspect Sakurai would also reject as infeasible due to his gun rules). Most of their other characters are simply not popular enough to justify dealing with licensing and sharing DLC sales.

That said, where does this leave Geno? Geno has a couple of things in his favor. For one, I really doubt Sakurai was completely excluded from decision making. Nintendo may have compiled the list on their own, but I think it's likely Sakurai had some voice and input in the discussion. Between that and their access to the ballot, the fan demand is surely noted. Geno is also relatively easy to license from Square since there's no other companies involved, and they've already gotten the rights to his likeness once. Geno has a sizable and vocal fanbase who would drum up excitement and hype and possibly get people who don't know about the character excited to buy him.

But his boons pretty much end there. And then reality sets in: If they want to hit fan favorites, why Geno? Sure, he's popular within the Smash fanbase. But even if they were going for a character popular in the Smash fanbase, there are easier choices to pull from the ballot. Bandana Waddle Dee is projected to have done super well in Japan and decently in the states. That's a modern character that is still receiving games (and thus promotes for them), and has no licensing weight attached to it. Why in the world would Nintendo pick the puppet over a character like that? And he's not the only one. I'm sure they have at least a dozen solid choices from the ballot that are easier to implement and with more benefit than Geno.

So yeah, I don't think Geno has hit 0% yet simply because I think the alternatives for a "Square Rep" have some pretty solid arguments against them on their own. But the arguments against Geno are potentially stronger than any of them, so I wouldn't get too hopeful.

Well Nintendo is a Japanese company first and foremost, and DQ11 had what square calls "amazing" sales in NA so that would probably be enough for them. Plus DQ11 is coming to the switch probably next year.

 

[The DanMan051]

Excuse me what this. Didn't happen, lmao

Bit more recent than I claimed, but:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77060095?jumpto=136#136
"Geno is someone practically everyone is predicting and expecting. Meaning that they internally probably do not take that one as seriously as names they themselves have been putting out to employees.
That's not to say that he isn't a name on their list of characters they have been telling people it is though. "

 

[Luigi The President]

Do you think Nintendo would have some sort of problem advertising KH3 because it’s on the PS4 and Xbox? They still get Sora in SMash which helps advertise Smash and the Switch. We’ve had Snake is Smash. Cloud was in Smash long before we heard about a FF7 port. I think you’re thinking way too hard about it.

And we’ve had KH games on handhelds already. Disney and Square have already worked with Nintendo before on KH stuff. I don’t see the problem.

You really think Nintendo will push for a character that sells them a few more classics and that Square most likely doesn’t want to promote as opposed to adding to their new friendship with Square and putting a popular character like Sora in a Smash that advertises Smash better and further promotes KH3?

Yes, I do, and I don't know why you disagree?
Sora still has numerous points going for him. This simply isn't one of them.

Snake in Smash was added solely due to Sakurai's close friendship with Kojima, and he namely was not DLC. The Cloud point is completely irrelevant.

It doesn't matter how many KH games are on handhelds. My point is-as I'll say again and again-KH3, the biggest KH game ever, is coming out in January. The Squenix character is the first to be revealed-so realistically Sora will be revealed mere months BEFORE OR AFTER KH3 is released, promoting KH3 pretty extensively regardless.

 

[Deathcarter]

"Springman, Skull Kid, Rex, Waluigi"
So I got some bad news

I guess Chrom will never be made an echo since he already has a role in the game as Robin's final Smash....

…Oh wait.

 

[KingofKoopas]

High 80s on metacritic, 1.8 million units shipped by the end of the 2015-2016 fiscal year... "not very well received" my ***. The vocal echo chamber doesn't reflect jack in terms of critical and commercial success; oftentimes, it runs directly counter to them.

I would wait for the audience scores dude, this can be said for any aggregator site for anything. Games. Movies. Books. anything.

 

[Untouch]

I imagine the Nintendo suits are involved in DLC this time because when Smash 4 was released, they didn't know how well Smash DLC sells and how much it can influence other series.
Nintendo wants a slice of that now, they want to use the influence that Smash DLC can provide for business reasons.

 

[J0eyboi]

What else do Square have? Not a lot. Every other Final Fantasy character suffers from a lack of iconicism (save perhaps Sephiroth) to pull in sales, or the same problem as Sora of not even hailing from a game on a Nintendo platform. Same goes for Lara Croft (who I suspect Sakurai would also reject as infeasible due to his gun rules). Most of their other characters are simply not popular enough to justify dealing with licensing and sharing DLC sales.

ok but hear me out

Bravely.

shut up let me dream

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

I guess Chrom will never be made an echo since he already has a role in the game as Robin's final Smash....

…Oh wait.

Standard Samus is in Zero Suit Samus' final smash
Chrom doesn't really change anything

 

[Luigi The President]

Bit more recent than I claimed, but:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77060095?jumpto=136#136
"Geno is someone practically everyone is predicting and expecting. Meaning that they internally probably do not take that one as seriously as names they themselves have been putting out to employees.
That's not to say that he isn't a name on their list of characters they have been telling people it is though. "

So you were just...wrong? Not trying to be rude, but...no?

First off from what I gather this is Verge's opinion. Seeing as he says, "probably".
Second off, he then goes on to state "that's not to say Geno isn't on the list I've been given." How is this a deconfirmation in any sense?
Third, he doesn't say his sources don't take Geno seriously. He said Squenix MAY NOT take seeing Geno on any given leak /AS/ seriously as they would another character because /IN VERGE'S VIEW/ everyone expects and predicts him.

 

[doomedtacox]

Microsoft could be in the process of porting Banjo-Kazooie. Does this seem plausible to you?

Also, no, it would negatively impact...I'm not trying to be rude, I'm just tired of pointing out how promoting KH3 is nothing but detrimental to them as it stands.

If you think the odds of Banjo getting ported are the same as some older KH games getting ported, just lol.

And how would it negatively impact them? Nobody is gonna see Sora in smash and be like "welp time to sell my switch and buy a PS4 with KH3".

 

[Ignoritus]

And Vergeben openly said not long after the mentioned the SE character that he and his sources ignore any instance of Geno being brought up/"Geno isn't seriously considered".

To me at last, that's an aggressively backhanded deconfirmation if there ever was one.

I'm going to need the source on this if you still have it. I may be misrecalling his exact statements, but from what I remember of what he said at the time he actually more or less admitted that Geno was on his list of names he heard, but he speculated Square didn't care about leaks containing Geno even though he was in their bait list because so many fakes included him. I remember his exact statements being vague and unclear, but not an outright deconfirmation.

 

[Will]

How about everyone zips their lips and we get Cooking Mama in peace?

 

[Luigi The President]

I guess Chrom will never be made an echo since he already has a role in the game as Robin's final Smash....

…Oh wait.

Nah dog I ain't doing this one believe what you want

If you think the odds of Banjo getting ported are the same as some older KH games getting ported, just lol.

And how would it negatively impact them? Nobody is gonna see Sora in smash and be like "welp time to sell my switch and buy a PS4 with KH3".

Yet, if Microsoft is working with Nintendo to get Minecraft in Smash, then their relationship is growing, hm? And they've already worked to port MC onto Nintendo consoles, and their relationship is visibly growing.

Doesn't matter; neither of these ports are confirmed OR implied to exist, so it's useless to bring them up.

Also it'd negatively impact them because no matter what the philosophy is it's promoting a direct competitor's game. I don't know why we need to defend this point so heavily. Sora has countless other points. I just don't think this is one to rely on.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Looking at what Verge said, it seems likely Geno actually is on his list, plus given the quote he was replying to and his wording, the stuff about SE and Geno seems like it was definitely his own opinion (albeit a weird one as it conflicts with SE's supposed paranoia).

 

[Yoshisaurus Rex]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but Meta Knight is tonight’s blog post.

Spoiler

 

[StrawHatX]

Yes, I do, and I don't know why you disagree?
Sora still has numerous points going for him. This simply isn't one of them.

Snake in Smash was added solely due to Sakurai's close friendship with Kojima, and he namely was not DLC. The Cloud point is completely irrelevant.

It doesn't matter how many KH games are on handhelds. My point is-as I'll say again and again-KH3, the biggest KH game ever, is coming out in January. The Squenix character is the first to be revealed-so realistically Sora will be revealed mere months BEFORE OR AFTER KH3 is released, promoting KH3 pretty extensively regardless.

So your argument is that Nintendo won’t put Sora in Smash because it helps KH3 sales on other consoles?

I can just imagine the meeting between Nintendo and Square now:
“Look, we know Kingdom Hearts is a massive series for you guys and KH3 is on the way, and thank you for all the upcoming FF games and such, but instead of putting Sora into Smash we were thinking about Geno. He hasn’t been relevant for 22 years, but he might sell us a few more classics. You guys down with that?”

As others have mentioned, Nintendo would probably make more money off DLC sales with Sora then they would for SNES classics sold by having Geno in the game.

 

[monadoboy]

Chrom should've been an AT too so he would've been everywhere

 

[Luigi The President]

So your argument is that Nintendo won’t put Sora in Smash because it helps KH3 sales on other consoles?

I can just imagine the meeting between Nintendo and Square now:
“Look, we know Kingdom Hearts is a massive series for you guys and KH3 is on the way, and thank you for all the upcoming FF games and such, but instead of putting Sora into Smash we were thinking about Geno. He hasn’t been relevant for 22 years, but he might sell us a few more classics. You guys down with that?”

As others have mentioned, Nintendo would probably make more money off DLC sales with Sora then they would for SNES classics sold by having Geno in the game.

Oh, my lord. I'm sorry if I sound rude but I'm just getting impatient. First off please stop bringing up the SNES Classic point because it's irrelevant to the current point and my wrists hurt from all this typing.

I'm going to try to break it down.

First off, yeah, that is my argument, and I don't know what's so heinous about it. KH3 is gonna be a huge game for the Xbone and PS4. It's gonna sell like crazy. Why on earth would Nintendo help with that by putting Sora in?

You keep explaining to me the benefit Squenix gets but relegate Nintendo's benefit to "they'd get money from Sora's DLC".

 

[ColtonS25]

Chrom should've been an AT too so he would've been everywhere

Every Chrom is here!

The real Ultimate tagline.

 

[Mc.Rad]

Bit more recent than I claimed, but:
https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/234547-super-smash-bros-ultimate/77060095?jumpto=136#136
"Geno is someone practically everyone is predicting and expecting. Meaning that they internally probably do not take that one as seriously as names they themselves have been putting out to employees.
That's not to say that he isn't a name on their list of characters they have been telling people it is though. "

Vergeben please say that in English

 

[Dyamanttine]

Chrom should've been an AT too so he would've been everywhere

Or not at all... haha

 

[NineS]

I think the issue here is that people are trying to argue (for the most part) that Sora is more likely to be in Smash than Geno.
While I do think this is true, people should move onto the next step.

Who is more likely than Sora? and so on?

 

[Idon]

Not sure if this has been mentioned yet but Meta Knight is tonight’s blog post.

Spoiler

View attachment 178075

What's even the point anymore?
We got footage of preeeeeetty much everyone.

 

[TheCJBrine]

With Sora, wouldn't DLC profits be split between Nintendo, Square and Disney?

With Dragon Quest you take Disney out, but add in a couple or so more.

Geno would just be Square other than Nintendo.

of course idk how the profits work and they may sell enough for Nintendo to still make a profit...

 

[R O F L]

I guess Chrom will never be made an echo since he already has a role in the game as Robin's final Smash....

…Oh wait.

Hocotate ship for smash

 

[Deathcarter]

Nah dog I ain't doing this one believe what you want

Don't go trying to be slick bruh. You know you can't cite a "rule" for which characters are deconfirmed when Sakurai himself already broke that rule.

Standard Samus is in Zero Suit Samus' final smash
Chrom doesn't really change anything

So you agree with me that nobody in the game is deconfirmed for DLC then.

 

[Luigi The President]

I think the issue here is that people are trying to argue (for the most part) that Sora is more likely to be in Smash than Geno.
While I do think this is true, people should move onto the next step.

Who is more likely than Sora? and so on?

Oh I mean obviously the DQ rep wins out over Geno AND Sora in my mind lol

 

[The DanMan051]

I would wait for the audience scores dude, this can be said for any aggregator site for anything. Games. Movies. Books. anything.

Of course there's a difference between what the critics and sales say and what people online say. But good sales and reviews don't do a whole lot of good if later word of mouth is negative. If you get good reviews from critics and good initial sales, that's a short-term good. But the following months and years are full of people grumbling about the game, that's a long-term problem, because then people's expectations for the new game are being colored by how the old one was.

The Evil Within sold well and reviewed well, but the general consensus later on was negative. Then last year, The Evil Within 2 came out, and it was seriously improved over the first game, remedying a lot of the flaws, but because there was already such a lukewarm-to-negative perception of the first one, it sold poorly, despite it being considered much better.

Mass Effect 3 also received glowing reviews and huge sales. Safe to say, those metrics don't reflect the general consensus of that game, either.

4.2/5 average user score on gamefaqs and 7.3/10 on metacritic (places were games with the slightest bit of controversy get negativity bombed-- I recall FEW and Xenoblade 2 both had around a 1.5 user score on gamefaqs right after they opened them up for scoring). Meanwhile, Mass Effect 3 has a 5.9/10 user metascore... but also 4.2/5 user score on gamefaqs.
Evil Within: 3.8/5 on gamefaqs, 7.5/10 user and critic metascore (which really isn't "reviewed well" when most major outlets skew towards the upper part of the scale).

It's almost like the correlation trying to be drawn doesn't really work; vocal minorities can shape the "consensus" on a game after the fact, but critic reviews and commercial sales are infinitely more solid metrics.

So you were just...wrong? Not trying to be rude, but...no?

First off from what I gather this is Verge's opinion. Seeing as he says, "probably".
Second off, he then goes on to state "that's not to say Geno isn't on the list I've been given." How is this a deconfirmation in any sense?
Third, he doesn't say his sources don't take Geno seriously. He said Squenix MAY NOT take seeing Geno on any given leak /AS/ seriously as they would another character because /IN VERGE'S VIEW/ everyone expects and predicts him.

The fact he's saying all that, to me, certainly implies that he isn't exactly taking it seriously either. But I'll admit, it was less explicit than I thought.

 

[Noipoi]

What's even the point anymore?
We got footage of preeeeeetty much everyone.

It's tradition at this point.
Besides, I wanna see who the last blog post before release is.

 

[Luigi The President]

Don't go trying to be slick bruh. You know you can't cite a "rule" for which characters are deconfirmed when Sakurai himself already broke that rule.


So you agree with me that nobody in the game is deconfirmed for DLC then.

Sakurai has never deconfirmed the "fan made rule" of Assist Trophies not being playable fighters in the game they appear in.

 

[Deleted member]

Vergeben please say that in English

Translated to English: "Enjoy my good friend Homura."

 

[StrawHatX]

Oh, my lord. I'm sorry if I sound rude but I'm just getting impatient. First off please stop bringing up the SNES Classic point because it's irrelevant to the current point and my wrists hurt from all this typing.

I'm going to try to break it down.

First off, yeah, that is my argument, and I don't know what's so heinous about it. KH3 is gonna be a huge game for the Xbone and PS4. It's gonna sell like crazy. Why on earth would Nintendo help with that by putting Sora in?

You keep explaining to me the benefit Squenix gets but relegate Nintendo's benefit to "they'd get money from Sora's DLC".

Because you act like Nintendo doesn’t benefit by making Square happy. They’re getting FF ports, Square has its own division now for making games on the Switch, and your argument as to why Nintendo wouldn’t return the favor with Sora in Smash is because KH3 isn’t on the Switch.

 

[Ramen Tengoku]

Don't go trying to be slick bruh. You know you can't cite a "rule" for which characters are deconfirmed when Sakurai himself already broke that rule.


So you agree with me that nobody in the game is deconfirmed for DLC then.

No... I still believe assists and such are out
Final Smashes seem to be an exception

 

[Luigi The President]

Because you act like Nintendo doesn’t benefit by making Square happy. They’re getting FF ports, Square has its own division now for making games on the Switch, and your argument as to why Nintendo wouldn’t return the favor with Sora in Smash is because KH3 isn’t on the Switch.

Nintendo has already made Squenix happy with the FF ports.
I don't think Nintendo will place "making Squenix happy" above "reaching a satisfying profit for both companies".

There's no real "favors" to be made up...they have a relationship of mutual benefit right now.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

The hype created by Geno as DLC would excite the Smash fanbase.

The reveal of Sora would create internet imploding hype, similar to Cloud or Snake.

I love Geno. I think he’s a great character, and he would be extremely fun. Like, I would love to see him revealed. To compare him and say that he makes more sense, or something to that effect, than Sora? No way.

We’re comparing a character from a one off SNES game, it doesn’t matter if it’s “relevant” because of a collectible item that Nintendo is selling. Geno doesn’t sell that, the mere fact that it’s a collectible that has classic games on it sells that.

While I see where some people are coming from in terms of “KH fans won’t necessarily buy a Switch and the game just to play as Sora”. Great. Then why add Snake? Why add Cloud? Why add Bayonetta? That’s a crap point, and it’s absurd. It means literally nothing.

3rd party characters are beginnings for business relationships and advertisement, as well as making this the greatest gaming crossover in gaming history. Geno wouldn’t contribute to that, but Sora would.

Did you notice how in the September Direct, Final Fantasy VII, X, and IX were announced for Switch? That conveniently happened after Cloud, and after relations between the two companies (Nintendo and SE) greatly improved.

There is little to no reason, if i’m being honest, to believe that Geno would sell more than Sora. Smash fans will mostly buy anything, #1, and I do think some of you underestimate just how much impact adding 3rd parties has.

I actually have a friend who has said if Sora was in Smash, he’d definitely get a Switch. Yes, it’s anecdotal evidence, but let’s not pretend it’s impossible.

What a mouthful. I’m not anti-Geno. I love Geno, and want to see him happen. I also like Sora, and think him happening would be crazy. Let’s not start up some ridiculous debate about the two characters though.

Think of it this way. You have a reveal of Smash DLC at the VGAs. Who would get more of a pop...Sora, the extremely iconic and “recognizable to almost any gaming fan” character, or Geno, a character that is mostly known within the Smash fanbase but is easily not recognized nearly as much as Sora?

 

[KingofKoopas]

4.2/5 average user score on gamefaqs and 7.3/10 on metacritic (places were games with the slightest bit of controversy get negativity bombed-- I recall FEW and Xenoblade 2 both had around a 1.5 user score on gamefaqs right after they opened them up for scoring). Meanwhile, Mass Effect 3 has a 5.9/10 user metascore... but also 4.2/5 user score on gamefaqs.
Evil Within: 3.8/5 on gamefaqs, 7.5/10 user and critic metascore (which really isn't "reviewed well" when most major outlets skew towards the upper part of the scale).

It's almost like the correlation trying to be drawn doesn't really work; vocal minorities can shape the "consensus" on a game after the fact, but critic reviews and commercial sales are infinitely more solid metrics.


The fact he's saying all that, to me, certainly implies that he isn't exactly taking it seriously either. But I'll admit, it was less explicit than I thought.

Thats the Metascore dude, they ask the critics for that, you wanna wait for the audience score. I aint saying youre not allowed to like or dislike the game, i am just saying you want a fair review wait fo rwhat the audience scores say cuz those are the people who pay money for the game.

 

[Amiibo Doctor]

How about everyone zips their lips and we get Cooking Mama in peace?

I think you mean Cooking Daddy: Shrek has shown himself to be quite the swamp chef.