Okay here’s how I feel about Elma. And don’t tell me I have bias because Xenoblade X is one of my favorite games of all time. I’ve put out at least 1000 hours into that thing.
There’s (hopefully) no denying that the ballot and a popularity among fans is what is deciding what characters get in. When the smash ballot rolled around Elma’s game wasn’t even out yet, meaning she missed out on an entire month of voting until April 29, when her game was released. She obviously wasn’t the most popular character for the ballot compared to a lot of other characters like Isaac, K. Rool, Bandana Waddle Dee, etc. Xenoblade X also wasn’t the most popular game (although it had modest sales) despite good critical reception. This can probably be blamed on being a title for the Wii U, a dying console. Iirc, the ballot closed on October 2015 and the project plan was finished on December 2015, meaning she didn’t have a lot of time to gain widespread support. Imo if this were any other smash game relevancy would save her. But we now know that relevancy doesn’t matter, like, at all. That’s just how I see it and her chances. Also, I might be wrong on this, but I’ve only seen widespread support for her once everyone agreed Rex and Pyra weren’t making it. I’d love to be wrong about this because I love Xenoblade X, but I just don’t see it happening.