Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Hollywoodrok12]

Okay. Before I start, I have to say this. Bandana Dee and Dixie Kong are both very valid additions to Smash. I'll save any more words about them for the actual rerates.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 0.001%. It's quite simple, really. Nintendo's picking the DLC, which means the only Nintendo characters (if any) are going to probably be promotional, and definitely not someone as highly requested as Dixie. Even then, she wouldn't be the first character they'd go to. And of course, there's the elephant in the room. Dixie's a spirit, and I wholeheartedly believe that Spirits do, in fact, deconfirm fighters. If she were to get into ultimate, it would've been base game.

Want: 40%. Dixie is a main character of the Donkey Kong series, much like Diddy and King K. Rool, where she even has her own game in the form of DKC3. The only reasons my rating for her isn't higher are 1: She doesn't appear in many Mario spin-offs, which really helps get people (especially newer Mario/DK fans) attached to the character and 2: I want Shantae, and I really think the possibility of Dixie using her hair for moves places her in direct competition with her. The reasons she's not at the top of the want score may be personal, but I do acknowledge her worthiness of a slot.

Bandana Dee:

Chance: 1*10^-11%. (Feel free to round that down to 0%.) There are quite a few factors, and it's very long.

Spoiler: Long

1: Modern Kirby. Sakurai has a history of focusing its representation on his own Kirby games. Whether it's a vendetta, negligence or somehow thinking that he's over representing Kirby and is making the mistake of actually underrepresenting it, Modern Kirby's exclusion is pretty much an unwritten rule of Smash Bros, beyond Final Smashes and content ported over from other games like songs and PNG Files.

2: Hatebase. Particularly the group of people that calls him a "Goomba with a Hat", despite his constant appearance in sidekick roles in nearly every Kirby game since Return to Dream Land. However, ever since Gamexplain's video, the opinion that Bandana Dee is nothing more than a "Hat Goomba" has grown exponentially across the internet. Bandana Dee's divisiveness would probably have him be shoved to the wayside in favor of another character who is more universally liked.

3: . Byleth takes a HUGE toll on Bandana Dee's chances for two reasons. The first is that he's a Nintendo character. Him being a Nintendo character hugely hurts Bandana Dee's chances, since Nintendo wants to represent as many different companies as possible. Secondly, Byleth is the first ever spear user in Smash. As a result, Bandana Dee's moveset is far less unique, which comes into direct conflict with Sakurai's design philosophy of making characters as different as possible.

4: 3rd Party/Promotional Precedent. As per Nintendo's business plan, Nintendo wants the pass to be mostly 3rd party. Obviously, Bandana Dee doesn't fit into this business plan. Kirby games aren't big enough for Nintendo to shoehorn in a rep for a new game like Pokemon or Fire Emblem, and there's no Kirby game to promote, so Bandana Dee sits completely outside of Smash's DLC business model, which makes him nearly impossible in and of itself.

5: Spirit. Spirits deconfirm. Why pick someone who is already represented when you can get a new, unexpected character who has never been represented in Smash at all? Even if a spirit were to become a fighter (edit: WHICH WON'T HAPPEN), it's unlikely that a 2nd would be promoted, since it would be such a special thing that a spirit is being promoted into a fighter. However, as I said before, I don't think a spirit getting promoted is going to happen at all.

Want: 100%. He's tied for my most wanted character (and is my sole #1 on a pro-BWD day). Bandana Dee's the fourth main character of Kirby, having important roles in nearly every Kirby game since RtDL. Kirby's a major enough franchise to have a fourth character. Modern Kirby is desperately aching for the representation in Smash beyond Final Smashes, ported songs and PNG Files. In my opinion, he needs to be in Smash.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 5%
Can't see it happening just with the overall treatment DK tends to get. Yeah we got K. Rool but that was after huge fan push.
Dixie, frankly, should have been in by now. Either Sm4sh or Ultimate at least.

Want: 100%
Aside from Toad/Captain Toad, Dixie is the character I feel deserves to be in this Nintendo fighting game most.

Bandana Waddle Dee:
Chance: 3%
Like Dixie, can't see it happening. Sakurai loves his series but I don't think he see's waddle dee as anything but fodder.

Want: 100%
After Toad and Dixie, Bandana Dee is my biggest want and a true Nintendo star. Alas I can't see him making it for some reason.

Minimum two full sentences. Please add a second sentence to Dixie's want rating to make sure it's counted. (I don't know the exact criteria for how they do the calcs and how much leeway they give).

 

[GoodGrief741]

Byleth takes a HUGE toll on Bandana Dee's chances for two reasons. The first is that he's a Nintendo character. Him being a Nintendo character hugely hurts Bandana Dee's chances, since Nintendo wants to represent as many different companies as possible. Secondly, Byleth is the first ever spear user in Smash. As a result, Bandana Dee's moveset is far less unique, which comes into direct conflict with Sakurai's design philosophy of making characters as different as possible.

Nintendo wants to rep as many companies as possible? Huh, guess that's why 3 out of 5 characters were from companies that already had content in the game.

And how does Byleth make Dee less unique? A realistic humanoid that wields a spear for a few moves and a tiny orb creature that wields the spear for all his moveset don't overlap much. Call me when Byleth does the spear copter.

5: Spirit. Spirits deconfirm. Why pick someone who is already represented when you can get a new, unexpected character who has never been represented in Smash at all? Even if a spirit were to become a fighter, it's unlikely that a 2nd would be promoted, since it would be such a special thing that a spirit is being promoted into a fighter. However, as I said before, I don't think a spirit getting promoted is going to happen at all.

You're contradicting yourself. You say spirits being promoted is this super special thing, but then say there's no reason to add a spirit over someone more unexpected. Either spirits are a huge shocker, and therefore worth including for the hype, or they aren't, and therefore they are possible. Pick a lane.

Also, to answer your question of why... Can someone post the "Money" imagine from yesterday?

Minimum two full sentences. Please add a second sentence to Dixie's want rating to make sure it's counted. (I don't know the exact criteria for how they do the calcs and how much leeway they give).

I'm very strict and much more so when it's a character I want. Anything that isn't false, a one-liner ("Nuff said"), padding ("I don't have anything else to say") or the words "literally who" passes, though.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Dixie Kong who is Diddy's girlfriend, sister, cousin?

Chance: 0.01%

I doubt much will change with Volume 2 as it's confirmed that Vol 2 will also have new stages, music, and Spirit boards. Which means it'll be characters from a game(1st party wise) or a series that has no representation in Ultimate in any form. Nintendo's the one choosing the DLC and they're mostly focused on collabs with other 3rd party characters that would help benefit the Switch as well as promoting any upcoming game they feel needs to be promoted in Smash. The spirit board part is also important as the five Vol 1 Spirit Boards represent a series or game that don't have spirits yet in particular(Blyeth's Spirit board image uses only Three Houses). So I doubt Dixie could even bring much to the table.

Want: 0.01%

I'm fine with the DK representation in the game. And Dixie is more of a base game newcomer instead of a DLC one. Even then I prefer Funky Kong.

Bandana Waddle Bartholomew Dee

Chance: 0.01%

What I said about Dixie also applies to the little guy as well. He's already represented in the game in some form and wouldn't bring much to the table in content compared to a game or franchise not already represented in the game.

Want: 0.01%

Like Dixie Kong, he feels more of a Base Game newcomer instead. And I'm content with the Kirby representation in terms of characters(stages on the other hand...).


Rex Prediction: 17.77%
Elma Prediction: 18.99%

Nominate Darksiders Rep x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Nintendo wants to rep as many companies as possible? Huh, guess that's why 3 out of 5 characters were from companies that already had content in the game.

And how does Byleth make Dee less unique? A realistic humanoid that wields a spear for a few moves and a tiny orb creature that wields the spear for all his moveset don't overlap much. Call me when Byleth does the spear copter.

You're contradicting yourself. You say spirits being promoted is this super special thing, but then say there's no reason to add a spirit over someone more unexpected. Either spirits are a huge shocker, and therefore worth including for the hype, or they aren't, and therefore they are possible. Pick a lane.

Also, to answer your question of why... Can someone post the "Money" imagine from yesterday?

I'm very strict and much more so when it's a character I want. Anything that isn't false, a one-liner ("Nuff said"), padding ("I don't have anything else to say") or the words "literally who" passes, though.

Thanks for making me realize I wanted to see Byleth doing the Spear Copter.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Minimum two full sentences. Please add a second sentence to Dixie's want rating to make sure it's counted. (I don't know the exact criteria for how they do the calcs and how much leeway they give).

I've added another. Not my best argument for wanting Dixie but my brain is basically mush after work today and I've always given her(and Dee) 100% want.

 

[Iko MattOrr]

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 10%
While she's a main character in the series, and a Nintendo icon still missing from the roster, I doubt she's joining the roster in the second wave of dlcs. If it was for a new game, then I would say her chance are 80% if not, more, maybe even 100%. She definitely feels as a base roster character.
The fact that she's already represented as a spirit may or may not influence her chance.

Want: 40%
Despite being a fan of 2D platformers, I never got into the Donkey Kong series, there's something about the games' universe, the characters and even the gameplay and level design, that always kept me away from it (I tried multiple times but it fails to gain my interest).
Though, Dixie is a missing Nintendo icon, and I wouldn't mind her in the roster for the sake of improving the franchise's representation (since DK is one of those franchises that never get the amount of content it deserves).

Bandana Waddle Dee:
Chance 10%
Copy-paste from Dixie and change "her" to "him"... except the fact that I don't consider Bandana Waddle Dee as a Nintendo icon, at all. When it comes to representing the main characters of Kirby, HAL usually puts the main trio along with one or more regular waddle dees (excluding some rare cases). Usually the Waddle Dee species is what is considered one of the main characters of Kirby (like Toads in Mario), not one specific version of them. Even Bandana Waddle Dee is often just called Waddle Dee and considered as one of them (in my country his official name is "Helper Waddle Dee", obviously translated to English).

Want: 0%
As a Kirby fan, I'm extremely annoyed by the fact that Kirby has no content in Smash outside of the games Sakurai himself made as a director (ok, excluding a few music tracks and some .png files). If Kirby miraculously gets a new character, it would be a huge disappointment if said character is the one who brings nothing new from what the other characters already in the game do.
Kirby is already the "puffball" and the one who brings copy abilities into the moveset (Bandana Waddle Dee's moveset would be based on spear and parasol abilities); Metaknight is already the "puffball" who fights by slashing and stabbing. Bandana Waddle Dee would be like Isabelle to Villager, yeah she has some new moves, but feels like the same thing but with some additional fanservice.

As I said multiple times, I'm not against Waddle Dees in smash, I'm only against Bandana Waddle Dee specifically. After Piranha Plant, the Smash developers have proved that generic mobs can be full characters and be awesome at the same time. So why Bandana Waddle Dee, and limiting the moveset to Spear and Parasol only (beam is not happening people, Waddle Dees have never used beam in their history outside of Smash Flash that's an unofficial fangame, and that miniboss in Kirby 64 where the Waddle Dee was transformed into a Waddle Doo); when you can have regular Waddle Dee, or even a group of regular Waddle Dees, fighting in a clumsy and creative way?

Spoiler

And especially wear several different hats other than just a bandanna of different colors? (especially when the Bandanna can still be one of his alts)

Spoiler

and countless more.

Honestly "Bandana" Waddle Dee always felt like a wasted opportunity to me, considering what the full Waddle Dee species can offer with some creativity.

Besides, if I have to choose a modern Kirby rep, I'd rather go for Magolor, and if it's not limited to modern, I'd obviously go for Adeleine & Ribbon; but seriously, give me anything else (Susie, Three Mage Sisters, Dark Matter, Gooey, wathever), but not Bandana Waddle Dee please.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Nintendo wants to rep as many companies as possible? Huh, guess that's why 3 out of 5 characters were from companies that already had content in the game.

I am referring to companies represented with content in DLC Fighter Passes. No company has had more than one character in a fighter pass, and I think Nintendo would avoid picking the same company twice for the sake of variety.

And how does Byleth make Dee less unique? A realistic humanoid that wields a spear for a few moves and a tiny orb creature that wields the spear for all his moveset don't overlap much. Call me when Byleth does the spear copter.

The amount of overlap doesn't matter. It's that there's overlap at all and why there's overlap. The whole point of Byleth, in Sakurai's eyes, is to implement axes, bows and lances/spears in Smash. Sakurai adding Byleth was him saying "there are spears in Smash now". Can Byleth use a spear for more than his side attacks? No. Can he use his spear like a helicopter? No. But in Sakurai's eyes as well as the eyes of many fans, Byleth renders Bandana Dee to be pretty much obsolete. In their eyes, a spearman with a sword, bow and axe is a replacement for a sphere boy that's a spear master. Because Sakurai made it special that Byleth is the first spear user, so it wouldn't make sense to add a second any time soon, if ever.

You're contradicting yourself. You say spirits being promoted is this super special thing, but then say there's no reason to add a spirit over someone more unexpected. Either spirits are a huge shocker, and therefore worth including for the hype, or they aren't, and therefore they are possible. Pick a lane.

For the spirits thing, I said that, as a failsafe, IF they picked a spirit to promote, that they'd deconfirm afterwards. However, I fully believe they won't promote them at all. THAT is my lane. Apologies for being unclear.

 

[TheCJBrine]

The amount of overlap doesn't matter. It's that there's overlap at all and why there's overlap. The whole point of Byleth, in Sakurai's eyes, is to implement axes, bows and lances/spears in Smash. Sakurai adding Byleth was him saying "there are spears in Smash now". Can Byleth use a spear for more than his side attacks? No. Can he use his spear like a helicopter? No. But in Sakurai's eyes as well as the eyes of many fans, Byleth renders Bandana Dee to be pretty much obsolete. In their eyes, a spearman with a sword, bow and axe is a replacement for a sphere boy that's a spear master. Because Sakurai made it special that Byleth is the first spear user, so it wouldn't make sense to add a second any time soon, if ever.

I don't see how Byleth using a spear for a few attacks kills Bandana Dee, and I don't recall Sakurai making it some super-special thing like you imply. Maybe he noted it, but it wasn't that big of a deal, and there's no way he'd actually care when we already have a bunch of fighters using swords and whatever, especially since Bandana Dee actually focuses on using a spear (though I assume he could use a parasol as well for a move or two, maybe a throw). Dee might not get in, but it won't be because "meh we already have Byleth."

Plus, Byleth's point wasn't to implement those weapons for the sake of those weapons, it was to be more unique from the other FE characters and utilize more weapons/classes or whatever from FE (the weapon tree or something, I forgot what people called it). Sakurai can take characters with the same weapons and make them move/play differently, so why would Byleth's few stabby-stabby attacks kill Bandana Dee when he would have unique moves as well?

 

[Rangez]

The amount of overlap doesn't matter. It's that there's overlap at all and why there's overlap. The whole point of Byleth, in Sakurai's eyes, is to implement axes, bows and lances/spears in Smash. Sakurai adding Byleth was him saying "there are spears in Smash now". Can Byleth use a spear for more than his side attacks? No. Can he use his spear like a helicopter? No. But in Sakurai's eyes as well as the eyes of many fans, Byleth renders Bandana Dee to be pretty much obsolete. In their eyes, a spearman with a sword, bow and axe is a replacement for a sphere boy that's a spear master. Because Sakurai made it special that Byleth is the first spear user, so it wouldn't make sense to add a second any time soon, if ever.

So because Byleth uses a spear/lance in his moveset, that automatically means any other characters that fight with a similar weapon are off the table?
That's just some really dumb reasoning.

 

[Megadoomer]

The amount of overlap doesn't matter. It's that there's overlap at all and why there's overlap. The whole point of Byleth, in Sakurai's eyes, is to implement axes, bows and lances/spears in Smash. Sakurai adding Byleth was him saying "there are spears in Smash now". Can Byleth use a spear for more than his side attacks? No. Can he use his spear like a helicopter? No. But in Sakurai's eyes as well as the eyes of many fans, Byleth renders Bandana Dee to be pretty much obsolete. In their eyes, a spearman with a sword, bow and axe is a replacement for a sphere boy that's a spear master. Because Sakurai made it special that Byleth is the first spear user, so it wouldn't make sense to add a second any time soon, if ever.

This part here doesn't make sense to me. Link was the first Smash character to use a bow and a sword; does that make every character that comes after him who uses a bow and/or sword obsolete or pointless? It seems bizarre to say that a character stands no chance because another character uses a similar weapon for a small part of their moveset.

 

[JCKirbs]

This part here doesn't make sense to me. Link was the first Smash character to use a bow and a sword; does that make every character that comes after him who uses a bow and/or sword obsolete or pointless? It seems bizarre to say that a character stands no chance because another character uses a similar weapon for a small part of their moveset.

Look at Joker.
Bayonetta was already the first person to use a gun, and the way he used his knife didn't look incredibly unique either. Stuff like Rebel's Guard could also be linked to characters who gain an advantage from getting attacked, like Incineroar (upon activating his Down-B).
Even then, he's still a welcomed addition who still brings something cool to the table.

Unless you're thinking of a character who would be a complete duplicate to another character (they're called Echoes), a character who wields a Lance for 2-3 moves shouldn't discount a character who's entire moveset could be based around equally, if not more flashier and interesting moves from a similarly functioning weapon.

 

[GoodGrief741]

He's already represented in the game in some form and wouldn't bring much to the table in content compared to a game or franchise not already represented in the game.

The amount of Kirby games without any representation says otherwise.

I am referring to companies represented with content in DLC Fighter Passes. No company has had more than one character in a fighter pass, and I think Nintendo would avoid picking the same company twice for the sake of variety.

Well then it's a good thing that Fighter Pass 1 ended. For this new Fighter Pass Nintendo's still in play.

The whole point of Byleth, in Sakurai's eyes, is to implement axes, bows and lances/spears in Smash.

The whole point of Byleth was to add a character from a recent game, and more specifically Three Houses.

But in Sakurai's eyes as well as the eyes of many fans, Byleth renders Bandana Dee to be pretty much obsolete.

Citation needed.

 

[Dukemon102]

Byleth making Bandana Dee obsolete? Alright. Because he totally doesn't have only just 3 moves with the spear that are 2 basic stabs and an arc swing. Show me the spear moves where Byleth throws his spear as a projectile, or charges and then throws 3 spears, or the move where he uses his spear as an helicopter, or the one he where does an upward or downward thrust... you get the idea. Imagine if we were deconfirming characters based on weapons, no swordfighters besides Link would ever be in the game LOL.

 

[Perkilator]

Byleth making Bandana Dee obsolete? Alright. Because he totally doesn't have only just 3 moves with the spear that are 2 basic stabs and an arc swing. Show me the spear moves where Byleth throws his spear as a projectile, or charges and then throws 3 spears, or the move where he uses his spear as an helicopter, or the one where does an upward or downward thrust... you get the idea. Imagine if we where deconfirming characters based on weapons, no swordfighters besides Link would ever be in the game LOL.

This reminds me of the pre-release days where people assumed was deconfirmed because of 's Throw.

 

[Louie G.]

DIXIE KONG

CHANCE: 2%
Look, I really sympathize with Dixie Kong. She's a longstanding request, almost got into Brawl, she's relevant within her series once again and would clearly not be a very difficult character to incorporate due to her similarities to Diddy Kong. She feels like a no-brainer, but this time she was snubbed in favor of King K. Rool - which, by the way, was totally the right call. It's a shame that DKC couldn't have gotten two new characters after being snubbed for so long, but considering the limited space doubling up on a series with two original characters out of the small amount we got may have been a bit controversial.

I'm sure that Dixie Kong was considered in Ultimate, but passed on in favor of K. Rool and decidedly has too much unique about her to be a legitimate echo fighter. So where does she stand now? I'd be perfectly happy if I was proven wrong, but I doubt that adding another DK character is a priority right now. Dixie Kong is popular, but not THAT overwhelmingly popular to make her a DLC frontrunner. It seems like Nintendo and Sakurai want to focus more on opening up new avenues for representation, and Dixie Kong doubles up on a series that just got a newcomer... and doesn't really offer much representation that the other three can't already provide. Like, I know she'd have a different moveset, but I mean in terms of DKC she doesn't open up any worlds that aren't currently in Smash... compared to like, Byleth who introduces Three Houses for example.

I just can't see Dixie being a priority over plenty of third party characters, new IPs and more refreshing longstanding requests. Whether or not there's a new DKC title to promote is left to be seen, but as things stand now I don't see much benefit.

WANT: 65%
I like Dixie Kong, I think once she's in Smash the DKC franchise will be as fully represented as it can reasonably be. While I think DK, Diddy and K. Rool do the trick, Dixie Kong is that rewarding cherry on top that nobody could really be upset about. I'm not sure if I wan't her right now though, there are characters who I'd rather see take precedent for the remaining DLC instead of doubling up on Donkey Kong love. I love all the new content K. Rool brought with him, and how we got some well-deserved, overdue love for the series in Ultimate. I'd like to see that love distributed to other series right now instead of retreading ground, but I mean hey if Dixie Kong makes it in it's certainly well deserved.

BANDANA DEE

CHANCE: 7.5%
I have slightly more faith in Bandana Dee. I don't think he's going to happen, but I think he's got a shot at it. We've yet to see how this next wave will truly be handled, whether or not the characters will be chosen in a similar fashion to last time, but it's easy to assume that it probably will be. That... doesn't put Bandana Dee in the best situation, but I will say that his demand trumps Dixie's by quite a bit.

Dee has a very dedicated fanbase, he still places high on polls worldwide and his support has not really dwindled since Ultimate's debut unlike other characters who missed their chance or had since been disconfirmed. I think first party characters are generally at a disadvantage moving ahead in DLC if they don't have a game to promote or significant new content to bring with them. Dee has neither of these currently, but his support has arguably been the most consistent of the first party characters. If they want to go with an easy fan favorite, he's a good pick. You can build him off Kirby since he's just a ball, his moveset is pretty much laid out for him, he's a first party character and would require minimal negotiation. Kirby didn't get too much new content in Ultimate either, so for what it's worth that wouldn't feel particularly redundant either.

Again it's not something I'm super confident in or anything, but something that I think is at least feasible to think about. It's really just Dee's significant and consistent popularity keeping him afloat, but otherwise there isn't much reason to add him right now.

WANT: 75%
Bandana Dee is not my preference for a new Kirby character, but it's silly to pretend he's not my best chance at getting one. Kirby is my favorite video game series out there and I'd be happy with anything I can get. While Dee isn't super exciting, he'd make me happy.

PREDICTIONS:
Rex - 32.50% (This character is definitely gonna get overrated by a lot of people)
Elma - 15.65%

NOMINATIONS: TRAVIS TOUCHDOWN x5

 

[11th]

If we're going to start discounting characters just because an existing fighter has something similar, then at least pick the best example possible. Byleth has very little in common with Bandana Dee outside of having a lance/spear for a handful of moves. I'd say that Dee has more in common with the Belmonts than anyone else. (hitboxes) Even then, he would still be incredibly different due to his body type, size, mobility, and specials.

If you want to go the body type route instead, then the closest match would be Meta Knight, but Dee's normals would still be much more disjointed and would be thrusts instead of sweeps, and his specials would be completely different. He doesn't have much in common with Kirby or Jigglypuff, and (probably) wouldn't even have the extra jumps that the other three do. If we can have a dozen or so realistically proportioned human sword fighters, then I don't think they would have any trouble differentiating four puffballs.

All that said, as someone who tends to lean towards shorties, I will always welcome more variety in that area and I would be happy with Dee just for bringing that. Liking the Kirby series and him is just the cherry on top.

 

[Sid-cada]

Dixie Kong

Chance - 0.5% - Dixie's time, unfortunately, has passed. The general consensus seems to be that DK's fanbase is willing to wait on Dixie at least slightly due to K. Rool being seen as enough. She'll probably be saved for a latter date, as in general there are so many more requested characters that there will be some miracle required for her to get in.

Want - 60% - Net enthused by her, and I'm mostly fine with where DK is now. That said, I do think she's a fairly understandable inclusion, and I can accept adding her to the roster.

Bandanna Dee

Chance - 7.5% - Maybe the only spirit I have real confidence in getting promoted. Bandana Dee has consistently been a top contender for quite a while, and the outcry has been there for some time. He'd probably be a fairly easy crowd pleaser if they wanted another Nintendo character and they didn't just simply use them for promotion. That said, spirits could still be an obstacle, and the past trend could be indicative of the future, so I have no idea about the chances. I say nay.

Want - 100% - My most wanted character. I've been a Kirby fan for a while, and Bandanna Dee honestly really feels needed if Kirby is to have proper representation in the future. While there are some characters that I also want in Kirby, they just don't feel right before Dee.

Nomiantions

De Blob X5

 

[Dbombiallo]

Bandana Dee
Chance 20%
Really one of last remaining first party characters left and the Kirby series needs some promotion.
Want 100%
I love Kirby and would be nice to see another character join the roster. Plus a unique Movesets to smash. While there other cool kirby characters Bandana Dee would just feel more natural.

 

[Calamitas]

Bandana Dee
Chance 20%
Really one of last remaining first party characters left and the Kirby series needs some promotion.
Want 100%
I love Kirby and would be nice to see another character join the roster. Plus a unique Movesets to smash. While there other cool kirby characters Bandana Dee would just feel more natural.

If you want to have your rating be actually counted at the end of the day, you're gonna have write more than just that one sentence for your chance rating, just so you know.

 

[RetrogamerMax]

Dixie Kong

Chance 10%:

I don't think Nintendo will pick her to be a DLC character because they no plans to release the next DKCR game anytime soon to promote her. Plus while popular, they're other characters most notably 3rd party characters Nintendo would whether pick to be DLC just for the easy money. Plus we just got K. Rool so Sakurai probably sees that as enough for us right now.

Want 100%:

She is my 3rd most wanted character and my 2nd favorite DK character only behind K. Rool himself. She would be so unique and fun to play as in Smash if they put her in as a unique fighter with most of her moves all involving around her hair. Plus I feel like she is literally the biggest missing Nintendo rep besides Toad who deserves to be in this game.

Bandana Dee

Chance 30%:

Why does Dee have a 20% higher likely rate than Dixie you may ask? Well it's simple really... HE DOMINANTS POLLS!!! The last Smash poll Source Gaming had he was ranked at number 2 only behind Banjo & Kazooie who wasn't announced yet. He is literally in the top 5 or even top 3 everytime you see him in a poll. His popularity is way too much to write him off, but at the same time I see Nintendo and Sakurai not picking him for some reason. Maybe we ain't getting a Kirby game anytime soon for him to promote it or Sakurai and Nintendo just mainly wants to focus on 3rd party characters for the rest of the DLC in this game. We will have to wait and see.

Want 60%:

I'm not a big fan of Dee I honestly prefer Marx, but I feel like he deserves to be the next Kirby rep being the 4th wheel and all. Plus I feel like he is one of the major Nintendo All Stars missing from the game along with Dixie Kong, Toad, Waluigi, and Pig Ganon. I also would be happy for his fans if he get's in.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Quick question. Did we ever rate the concept of a Contra rep? I was thinking about it today and it could actually happen.

 

[Jomosensual]

Quick question. Did we ever rate the concept of a Contra rep? I was thinking about it today and it could actually happen.

I think we may have rated a contra character in the past but IDK for sure. Def not the whole series though

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Rex from Xenoblade 2 and Elma from Xenoblade X.

Predict Midna and Skull Kid from the Zelda series.

Megadoomer

-----

Music Post

Here are some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

Rex

Spoiler: Xenoblade 2 Music

Elma

Spoiler: Xenoblade X Music

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Rex & Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 50%
Like I said before for Dixie and Dee, we don't know how things work out for the 2nd FP. Obviously the DLC Mii Costume hurts him, but then we have the issue of the main reason Sakurai excluded him being debunked by Byleth, which was the timing of the release of XB2, an older game than Three Houses. Sakurai also felt the need to personally apologize for not making him playable more than a year ago, which can go either way for him.

Want: 100%
He looks like a cool character and XB2 is a well liked game. I fully support his inclusion, both based on the characters and the fact that Xenoblade could use another representative.

Elma

Chance: 50%
There is a strange lack of XBX content in the way of music. I'd say there are plenty of songs they could include in an Elma fighter pack. Otherwise, it's the same as Dixie, Dee, and Rex in that things can go anyway for the 2nd FP.


Want: 100%
I support her too, in that XBX is a good game and that Elma is a good character. Again with Rex, Xenoblade is one of the series that could use another rep.

Noms:
Terra Branford x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Rex
Chance 20 - Not impossible but IDK about this one. On one hand Sakurai really wanted him in, so it's a matter if Nintendo wants him or not. But do they? I have no clue. That's kinda the problem. Shulk's game getting a remaster shows that XB has some level of importance to Nintendo. Looking into it fast it appears that there's only 3 XB2 songs in the game so that's going to be a problem I'd think. Stage is easy enough too. Don't know about spirits because I haven't played any XB so IDK who is and isn't there from the XB2. Feels like the biggest issue is if Nintendo wants him or not, or maybe Sakurai was able to get a pick for himself? Its possible I guess by I'm not expecting it. Feel like it's more likely we get a continuation of the crossover and get a new series or a new game that has no real content

Want 50 - Xenoblade is the one series I think might be under repped right now. If they're not now then they likely will be by the tim the next Smash game is here. Dont hate the idea of another character getting added in. No real connection to the series but it feels like it's rising up.


Elma
Chance 1 - Have a hard time seeing this one happening anymore. The extreme lack of XBX content could have been considered suspicious at first with DLC pack 1. Now we're in Fighters Pass 2 though, and any ideas that this was planned seem to be out the window because more DLC wasn't planned at first. So it's more likely that they just decided to not put the content in instead of holding it back for DLC. There's also Sakurais love of the series to consider, but he wanted Rex, not Elma. Even though we're told Nintendo gives him the names and then he decides if it's possible to make them fighters or not I really doubt he has no input or the characters. It seems like Elma missed her time and has been passed over. Leaving the door open because I remember rumors about another XBX game the last time we did Elma but IDK what that was all about.

Want 50 - Same as above. XB is close to needing more character and I dont really have a preference as to who gets in. Don't know a lot about the character but she has some solid support too and some of the stuff I've seen for moveset makes it seem like she wouldnt be boring I guess.

Predictions
Midna .5%
Skull Kid 5%

Noms
Falinks x5

 

[DaybreakHorizon]

Rex & Pyra

Chance: 1%
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 released at the wrong time. Too late for the Game Awards and too early for a spot in Smash. I have no clue why Sakurai and co. would backtrack to cover Rex & Pyra, popularity notwithstanding. Even then, their popularity is largely in Japan, and other characters are more popular and more relevant.

Want: 10%
They'd be neat, but they're far from my most wanted.

Elma

Chance: 0%
Xenoblade Chronicles X is the black sheep of the Xenoblade Chronicles series. Clearly Monolith Soft have moved on from it, and everyone else should too. Rex & Pyra would be the most modern Xenoblade Chronicles rep and not even they could get in, so what makes anyone think Nintendo, Sakurai, and co. would go with Elma, a character from a 5 year old game with little to no prospects of appearing again? She had her chance as the promo rep for Sm4sh DLC, and we all know how that ended.

Want: 1%
She wouldn't be the worst character. But also, there are a lot of better picks for Fighters Pass 2.

Nominations:
Gran/Djeeta x 5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Quick question. Did we ever rate the concept of a Contra rep? I was thinking about it today and it could actually happen.

No, we haven't. It's a good concept though, I'd like to see that rated.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

REX

Chance: 0% dude's already been spirited away, which I consider a death sentence, though there's also the extra work he'd may end up taking due to his Blade bull**** which would take more resources compared to others. There's also how it's been a while since XB2 came out and Nintendo DLC's been reserved for promotional picks outside of the Plant, a character who was planned for base game but wasn't finished on time.

Want: 0% I ****in hate this dude, his voice is like a chainsaw getting revved right next to my ears and his game is one of the biggest ****ing disappointments I have ever seen, ACTUAL garbage.




ELMA

Chance: 0% Spirited Away, Sawano's music rights and the fact XCX doesn't seem to matter to Nintendo at all make me think Elma's got no hope.


Want: 80: Her game was disappointing as hell but I did like her during my playthrough, her sci-fi aesthetics and skin tone make her stand out a lot when compared to the rest of the cast but her fighting style being a combination of dual swords AND dual guns is practically begging for a more action oriented game than Xenoblade. Plus, despite Sawano fully owning XCX's music, it slaps so I want it


EDIT: Shanoa x 5 for noms

 

[Ninjaed]

Rex & Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 1%
The "argument" Sakurai gave that the game was too recent has been proven to be pure PR talk now that we've gotten Byleth. In short, the Mii costume is a consolation prize. Rex isn't coming in. I'm giving 1% on the off-chance that the 2nd DLC Wave wasn't entirely planned at first and that Rex was that high on the priority list.

Want: 70%
Rex himself is meh but the concept we could get definitely has its appeal. I do hope that if we do get him, he'll have other weapons featured in his kit somehow.

Elma

Chance: 0.5%
I think if we're getting a new XC rep, it's going to be Rex. That said, Elma did cameo in XC2 so the devs know of her appeal at least, and XCX content in Smash is currently fairly sparce. She also has some unique features which would be interesting to see in Smash. Elma has at least that going in her favour. Still, I think she has a spirit so her chances may as well be 0. It's not like Nintendo planned all their spirits and possibly Spirit Events during the development of the game after all, right?

Want: 50%
I've not finished XCX, changing all the cables to play on my Wii U is too much of a bother, so I don't know all there is to know about her. I just don't like the console. Still, Elma sounds fun enough so why the heck not.

Predictions:
Midna - 4%
Skull Kid - 4%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Rex & Pyra/Mythra

Chance: 1%
The "argument" Sakurai gave that the game was too recent has been proven to be pure PR talk now that we've gotten Byleth. In short, the Mii costume is a consolation prize. Rex isn't coming in. I'm giving 1% on the off-chance that the 2nd DLC Wave wasn't entirely planned at first and that Rex was that high on the priority list.

Want: 70%
Rex himself is meh but the concept we could get definitely has its appeal. I do hope that if we do get him, he'll have other weapons featured in his kit somehow.

Elma

Chance: 0.5%
I think if we're getting a new XC rep, it's going to be Rex. That said, Elma did cameo in XC2 so the devs know of her appeal at least, and XCX content in Smash is currently fairly sparce. She also has some unique features which would be interesting to see in Smash. Elma has at least that going in her favour. Still, I think she has a spirit so her chances may as well be 0. It's not like Nintendo planned all their spirits and possibly Spirit Events during the development of the game after all, right?

Want: 50%
I've not finished XCX, changing all the cables to play on my Wii U is too much of a bother, so I don't know all there is to know about her. I just don't like the console. Still, Elma sounds fun enough so why the heck not.

Predictions:
Midna - 4%
Skull Kid - 4%

Nominations: Segata Sanshiro x5

I'm pretty sure the 'too recent' remark was because the situation was basegame, meaning Sakurai would need to hold off on working on Rex as nothing about him would be finalized until fairly late in development which is why Roy's Smash personality is so different from his actual personality

 

[warpenguin55]

Rex
Chance: 1%
Sadly, I'm going to say it. I think Rex is dead. The 1% he gets is solely because we know he was planned, unlike Waluigi, Isaac, Dixie Kong, or BWD. Thats why I give him the bonus point. Sure as hell didn't help Chorus Kids.

As for why I think Rex is dead, excluding the spirits deconfirm arguement, it's because of extra DLC content. Yes there are some spirits that didn't make it like Lora or Jin. The spirit boards are directly related to the character being added. Terry is the only one that characters that he had nothing to do with, but those were other SNK games. There's also the fact that we already have some XB2 music in smash. The music argument isn't once I'm staying on too long, I played most of the game with no sound.

Want: 95%
I'm pretty attached to XB2. I'm going to try to finish it tomorrow assuming nothing comes up. Rex is kinda generic but that's a JRPG main protagonist for ya. I have like 100 hours on the game and played it every Saturday and Sunday between calls at my call center job back before that place went downhill. When I ran out of things to do I would randomly wander around because I loved how pretty everything looked. Assuming the ending isn't stupid I would recommend it.

Elma
Chance: 0%
I see no reason for Elma to get over Rex. Rex is more requested, the game is newer, and Xenoblade 2 outsold Xenoblade X. I think Elma missed her chance.

Want: 0%
I don't know **** about Elma. So take that, combine it with the fact I'm going to try to finish Xenoblade 2(a game I have a ton of time on) tomorrow and you get a whole lot of give me Rex instead. I'd just really prefer Rex.

Predict:
Midna 7%
Skull Kid 5%


Noms:
Gnar x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

No time for nap, Rex-Rex!

Chance: 15% - Rex is in a weird position but might end up getting Zoroark'd. His game was considered too new for a base game slot and released between Smash games. Furthermore there's the matter of his Mii Costume that was given as a consolation prize. The spirit may be the final nail in the coffin for poor Rex-Rex. If Nintendo skipped over him once then I don't see them going back for him unless there's a good reason. There's nothing new related to Xenoblade 2 for Rex to promote and the next Xenoblade product is a remaster of 1. With Shulk already in the game I don't see Nintendo double dipping in that regard.

On the other hand, the lack of Xenoblade 2 content (aside from a few songs) is suspicious. though this could be attributed to the lack of substantial development on 2 when Ultimate was being developed. Sakurai could also bring him in in the way be brought Joker since he loves Xenoblade 2 and wants to thank MonolithSoft for their hard work, but Nintendo has the final word, so things aren't looking too good.

Still, Rex has a lot of moveset potential. His hookshot, Double Spinning Edge, Rolling Smash, and even a blade switching mechanic that could change up his specials. There's plenty to work off of. Same for stages, the locales in the game are gorgeous, and a place like Uraya or Mor Ardain would make a fantastic stage (Gormott would be alright as well but we already have a grassy plains area in Gaur Plains so it'd be redundant).

Want: 25% - Rex is in a weird spot for me. I got Xenoblade 2 for Christmas this year and I have very mixed feelings on it. On one hand, the story is pretty good and I've really liked some of the characters like Tora, Poppi, Pyra, Vandham, Dromarch, and even Rex himself. I think it'd be a lot of fun to see them in the game! I'm in the middle of Chapter 5 and I think it's shaping up well.

The gameplay on the other hand... well let's just say it continually reminds me of why I prefer Western RPGs like the Elder Scrolls games WAY more than JRPGs. I understand all of the mechanics and have no problem playing the game, but it feels like a chaotic in-between between an action RPG and a traditional JRPG, and is somewhat tedious at times. Unlike a lot of games, it doesn't really draw me in and make me want to play more. I feel more like I have to tell myself to play it rather than wanting to, and that's a problem for me. When it comes to games, if the gameplay isn't making me want to play more, than I don't care how good the story is. I love a good story, but ultimately gameplay is the most important thing to me, and if a game's gameplay isn't my cup of tea then the story isn't enough to make up for it. I really don't get people's insistance that story is a good replacement for gameplay. It isn't bad, but it isn't really drawing me in or making me want to come back for more.

A lot of the "mature" and "open minded" people in the Smashboards community, the members of the Modern Fire Emblem/Xenoblade/Persona/Platinum Games crowd will often say things like "Play this game, give it a chance, you'll LOVE the characters and suddenly really want them in Smash!". While I do like Rex to an extent, in no way did it affect my want score towards Rex in Smash, and I don't suddenly adore the franchise after trying it. I know this isn't the place to rant, but the fact that these kinds of opinions and people are placed on such high pedestals is honestly upsetting. Especially since they can have free reign slamming the characters they deem "cereal mascots". I'm just bringing this up since I don't want to see this have an inflated effect on the want scores, and people shouldn't feel bad if they give Rex or Elma a low want rating. And I wanted to show that their statements and insistence didn't have an effect on my want score.

Now, here's something that DID have an effect on my want score: Byleth. Somehow not too new for Ultimate when Rex was. Like Isaac I have honest sympathy for Rex now, he was essentially robbed. I'd love to see him get a roster spot to get some justice for him and his fans. He's such a nice guy and didn't deserve to be snubbed like this.

Overall, Rex would bring some good stuff to the table, but unlike popular opinion playing his game didn't suddenly make him a heavily desired character for me. But if he made the roster I'd still be happy for him and his fans. Xenoblade's done well enough that it deserves another rep.


Elma

Chance: 1% - I just don't see Elma happening. Even with the lack of X stuff in Ultimate, X had a much more lukewarm reception than the games that came before and after it. Her best chance would've been as Smash 4 DLC but that time has passed. She can't promote anything, and she doesn't have the huge fan demand that Rex does. Plus Rex was the one Sakurai wanted to add all along, not Elma, so if Sakurai gets the chance for a new Xenoblade character it's going to be Rex without a doubt. Elma being a spirit is the final nail in the coffin for her. She's mainly a case of unfortunate timing, and while she has content she could bring with her, X has been greatly overshadowed by 2 at this point. 2 had much better reception, and if it's anything that Nintendo observes closely, it's sales numbers.

Want: 0% - I have no attachment to Elma or Xenoblade X, and would rather see Rex instead. Not much else to say on Elma, for me she just kind of...exists, and I don't have much interest in giving X a try, especially since the more well-recieved 2 didn't exactly pull me in. Maybe I'll watch a let's play of it at some point for the plot, but it's not a game I would want to commit 100+ hours to.


Nominations:
Bubsy x5

Predictions:
Midna - 7.35%
Skull Kid - 15.33%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Toy story joke or something idk I've never played XB2
Chance: 10%
He would've had a great shot if Sakurai was the one who decided the line up. Nintendo, I'm not so sure about. Xenoblade 2 was already some time ago. He wouldn't really be a promotional pick for that game and I doubt we'll see Rex in a future game any time soon. Who knows, tho. He does have a huge fan following in Japan that rivals the demand for Bandana Dee although I'm not sure if he's also huge outside the Smash bubble.

Want: 0%
This character and the game he hails from just don't look like it would click with me. Some cutscenes from that game just make me wince. He's also competition to first-parties I'd rather have cause I imagine the spot for Nintendo characters will be tight.

L-ma
Chance: 1%
Unless anything Xenoblade X related has been in the works for some time next to the XC1 remaster, it's likely Elma was another victim of timing. Since her game was on the Wii U and still hasn't been ported, I have a feeling Nintendo would view her as too risky. Especially with XB2 being much more popular and Rex having more demand.

Want: 50%
As somebody who hasn't played the series, XCX does look like the way more appealing game to me. Elma's design also doesn't make my eyes bleed like Rex does. No personal connection but I would be happy for her supporters.

Midna: 9.76%
Skull Kid: 23.61%
Reporter and wrestler x5

 

[PSIGuy]

Hoo boy, very skewed numbers here.

Rex
Chance: 10%
Decently popular, still requested, some unique possibilities when it comes to implementing his fighting style (assymetrical Ice Climbers built around comboing with two different fighters?). If we were going to get a non-shill oriented first party he'd be very viable. And the only character Sakurai has publically apologized for not-including, for what it's worth.
Want: 1%
I've played through XC2 and I liked him for all of one chapter. Then the game goes through the motions of trying to convince me this idiot kid and a 500 year old sword are the perfect couple and I just lost interest. The other thing is I have no faith in Sakurai translating his moveset into something interesting after seeing what he did to Joker (another character he professed to love) and his wishes that the Rex Mii costume will "really make you feel like you're playing as Rex". I can only see him as slow Shulk with a Joker/Byleth recovery and a Pokemon Trainer gimmick (except instead of 3 movesets it's 2 different sets of attributes).

Elma
Chance: 1%
Unless there's a hail mary in the form of something Xenoblade X related in the next two years that is ALSO the beneficiary of a Nintendo-mandated advertizing push which also somehow gets prioritized in front of ****ing POKEMON and a NEW ZELDA GAME, she doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell. I think her dual gun-dual sword loadout would be enough to make her stand-out without just being budget Bayonetta with anime swordsmen attacks and the first non-duo female fighter would probably be met with some positive reception but she's hardly the only option for that.
Want: 100%
Easily my most wanted character, and has been since the possibilty of her being Smash 4 DLC arose in my mind (before being shattered by Corrin moments later). It's been a regret of mine for years that I only picked up X on launch day and therefore too late to put any votes in for her in the Smash ballot. Oh well. I'll just keep adding to my collection of Elma spirits (I've got about two pages full so far).

 

[BowserKing]

Rex

Chance: 15%. While he has a spirit and a Mii Costume, which has justified reasons for the base roaster, he could show up as DLC. The problem is that if he gets in, who gets in with him, Pyra or Mythra, and even then, there will be competition from tons of other fighters. However, since he was briefly considered, he could have a chance.

Want: 50 to 55%. I was reluctant about Rex joining smash, for unknown reasons. However, there is moveset potential, but the way I see it is that Rex and either Pyra or Mythra would have the same Mechanic as Pokémon Trainer, switching characters in each term, so they would have an unique moveset. I considered that moveset to be a fun one, and they could be fun to play as. At least we also get more Xenoblade tracks.

Elma

Chance: 15%. Just like Rex, Elma has a spirit, but she does not have a Mii Costume, giving her a little boost. She has some popularity on her side as well, plus Xenoblade X could use some more representation. Competition from other fighters, including Rex is an issue, but I think Elma could have a chance to appear in the game.

Want: 85%. I honestly think Elma is the better choice, as she has moveset potential and she would totally be a fun character to play as. Plus if she gets in, we could get soundtracks from Xenoblade X, and even the other ones two. Either way, I think Elma would be worth getting to be playable for this game, and even if she doesn't, there is always next game.

Prediction: Midna (15%) and Skull Kid (15%)

Noms: 2 for Falinks and 3 for Decidueye, 3 for Concept: Returning stages and 2 for Echo: Lord Fredrick (E67)

 

[DanganZilla5]

Rex

Chance: 20%

Rex has a lot of fan support to back him up and Sakurai intended to put him in the game, but Xenoblade 2 just came out too late for him to be in the base game. To me, what really hurts his chances is his Mii costume in which you had to pay for the first Fighters Pass to get. It really feels like these paid Mii costumes are a death sentence to the characters. However, I feel that Rex might be the sole exception to this. We had to pay for the fighters pass, not Rex himself. In other words, he was a bonus to something else you paid for. Maybe this is a stretch, but seeing as Sakurai wanted to put Rex in the base game and made a big deal out of his Mii costume says a lot about Rex. With a fresh new fighters pass, this is the time to make up for that, unless if Nintendo gets in the way and asks for another Pokemon.

Other than that, Rex should be clear. I"m confident that spirits don't deconfirm. It's the same attitude I have with assist trophies. If Sakurai wants to add a character, he will add a character. In fact, Lucas and I believe Mewtwo had trophies in Smash 4 before they became playable characters. He has unique moveset potential and plenty of music is missing from his game. though spirits might be a bit more difficult. Overall, Rex is one of the likeliest first party characters alongside Waluigi and Isaac.

Hear me out. With Xenoblade Chronicles Remaster, Rex could possibly be chosen as the promotional pick. Sure they could also go with Fiora, but we already have Shulk. And again, Sakurai apologized to Rex fans, so if he had the opportunity to add another Xenoblade character, he would most likely choose Rex. With all this in mind, I'm confident in Rex and I feel like he could be one of the few first party characters to make it in.

Want: 65%

I'm not a big Xenoblade Chronicles fan, but from what I've seen from the second game, Rex looks like a fun character and he would have an awesome moveset. Xenoblade has some nice music as well so it would be good to get some more of it. In addition, so many people speak so passionately about Rex that it has touched my heart and I would like to see Rex make it to see his fans be happy.


Elma

Chance: 4%

She has some demand, but if a Xenoblade rep got in, it would be Rex. Xenoblade X was on Wii U and never got ported over to the Switch. Not to mention Rex and Xenoblade 2 are in general more popular and requested, plus Rex was the one to get recognition from Sakurai himself. I'm just not feeling it. Rex just overshadows her. She has merit for sure, with moveset potential and some demand, but it's already an uphill battle to get another Xenoblade rep in the game.

Want: 10%

She doesn't interest me too much. Plus I would much rather have Rex instead. Maybe I just haven't seen much of her game, but she would have to have an interesting moveset to win me over.

Predictions:
Skull Kid - 5%
Midna - 3%

Noms: Crypto x5

 

[jamesster445]

The Virgin Rex
Chance: 30%
Want: 31%

Rex is the least interesting aspect of XB2. His Blade/Driver gimmick is shared with 90% of the cast of Alrest. He relies so heavily on Pyra/Mythra that he cannot stand on his own merits (referringto his potentials a fighter in Smash). But he is at least a XB character which is something I do think we need more of. Jury's out on whether or not Spirits/Miis are upgradable. Also I just dont like the guy.

But we would get more XB2 music and I will fully admit that XB2 has the best soundtrack in the series so that is a huge point for him.

The Chad Elma
Chance: 20%
Want: 100%

Elma is from the heavily sci fi themed XBX as opposed to the more fantasy inspired XB1 and XB2. So aesthetically she's already bringing something different. Elma also has a more unique fighting style thanks to being a Full Metal Jaguar, (aka dual swords and dual guns and an emphasis on mobility) without relying too heavily on gimmicks. And there is a lot of missing XBX content that fers an opportunity to be added. Unfortunately she and XBX are considered a black sheep of the franchise and it doesn't help that the future of XBX is shaky at best. Honestly her best shot was for the base roster of Ultimate.


Nominations: Ring Fit Adventure x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Steel Diver

Chance: 50%
Yeah, dunno what you're all going about, I think Rex is extremely likely. Dude's highly wanted, especially in Japan where it matters most honestly. He can bring a new moveset, a stage, music (there's only 3 XB2 songs) and Spirits (there's only 8 of them). He's from an up and coming franchise that Nintendo wants to get bigger. The game itself isn't that old, not "promote it" old, but then again Byleth got in to promote a game that was months old at the time of his release. And Rex could be seen as a promotion for the remake of Xenoblade 1 (I'm not seeing that game getting a promotional rep, but if they want one I think they'll go with Rex over someone from the game). Most importantly we have Sakurai apologizing for his exclusion, which says a lot honestly. I see Rex as one of the most likely first party additions and we're definitely getting some of those.

Want: 95%
Rex was robbed, plain and simple. If timing was that big of an issue Byleth shouldn't have been able to get in. It was just FE getting the royal treatment over the other series. Since we don't know when the next Smash is coming, we don't know if there'd be a Xenoblade 3 or 4 in between whose character would take the spot. I really don't want Rex to be robbed of a place in Smash forever so I'm really hoping he gets in. I really like Rex and Pyra's designs and think they'd be a really cool addition to Smash moveset-wise.

Elma knows where you live

Chance: 5%
Elma isn't very popular. She isn't from a very popular game. Her direct competition is someone who is. She's even less relevant. She's not even the main character of her game. Honestly I don't see any chance for her to get in over Rex, unless there's either a Xenoblade Chronicles X port or a sequel. I could see a port happening.

Want: 25%
I don't hate anything about Elma but I find her an incredibly boring character. Xenoblade X didn't really wow me, but I found her the most boring part of it by far. And I'd prefer if the main character of the game got in.

That said, I'm not really against her inclusion, but I do want Rex to get over her. If he was already in and Elma got in too, I'd be like sure whatever.

Noms: Kiryu x5
Predictions: there appears to be a ceiling for what people are willing to give to an AT, so sadly I think Midna and Skull Kid won't fare much better. I'll give Skull Kid 17% and Midna 13.01% and be very happy if they go higher.

though there's also the extra work he'd may end up taking due to his Blade bull**** which would take more resources compared to others.

I don't think it'd be more resource intensive than Joker or Hero.

I'm giving 1% on the off-chance that the 2nd DLC Wave wasn't entirely planned at first and that Rex was that high on the priority list.

I'm sorry but do you have even a shred of evidence that the 2nd wave was planned at first?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Dixie Kong/Bandana Dee pre-Elma/Rex

Freddy Fazbear x255
Kazuma Kiryu x215
The Blob (De Blob) x190
Crypto x180
Carmen Sandiego x170
[Rerate] Travis Touchdown x165
Concept: Octopath Traveler rep x155

150 - 101

Reporter & Wrestler x120
Mii Costume: Hollow Knight x115
Gex x110

100 - 51

Big Daddy (BioShock) x85
Chun-Li x85
Ryo Hazuki x80
Mii Costume: Quote x80
Ring Fit Adventurer x80
Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Concept: Devolver Digital rep x75
[Rerate] Paper Mario x70
Meowth x69
Decidueye x68
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x68
Brian (Quest 64) x65
Segata Sanshiro x60
Bubsy x60

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Earthworm Jim x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Darksiders rep x40
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x35
Boss: Ender Dragon x31
Concept: DLC music packs x30
[Rerate] Concept: Gen 8 Pokémon x30
Gnar (League of Legends) x30
Falinks x30
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
[Rerate] Kratos x25
Urbosa x25
Giygas x25

Under 25

Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x23
Terra Branford x18
Rival Pokémon Trainer x17
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x17
Zeraora x15
Hornet (Hollow Knight) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
Guardian (Destiny) x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gooigi x10
Concept: Level-5 rep x10
[Rerate] Steve x10
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x10
Black Shadow x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Gordon Freeman x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Alucard (Castlevania) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x5
Sirfetch'd x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
Ahri (League of Legends) x5
Otto Matic x5
Concept: New Zelda character x5
Chell x3
Magolor x3
[Rerate] Andy x2
3 Mage Sisters x2

In a strange turn of events there's absolutely nothing to mention about the nominations list.