Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[TCT~Phantom]

RealPokeFan11 I put all of them together to save time. There is no real point imo to rating all of this separate. I considered putting Chris on here but we had no real interest in him on this forum. Last time I did not do something like this was for the Gen 7 Pokemon. If I could go back in RTC and change one day around, it would be moving Gen 7 Pokemon Rep to the Gen 7 Day.

Ornl I feel that some of these observations do not really matter in the grand scheme of things. Resident Evil being from the same era as Banjo or being done by Kamiya in the past I feel does not matter at all and is just going into heuristics again. RE characters could do way more than just use a knife and a gun, look at Jill in MvC2 for a good example of what they would likely do. I do not think that gameplay controversy would be a thing, they managed to incorporate Snake and Bayonetta just fine and I would see more issues with a highly sexualized character like Bayonetta than something that at worst is a campy zombie shooter (the only scary RE game is 3, 1 and 2 are not scary and 4-6 are literally zombie action games). Music controversy does not make sense to me when we have Dragon Quest (look into the composer from DQ he's... a piece of work).

The thing is I think you do have some points in there that I agree with. Capcom does have the most content in the game, although that may be because they are relatively easy to work with. I personally think Costume Theory is not gonna happen myself, though I would not use a fan theory against a character's chances. And I can easily see why one would think we would be overrating Capcom characters. But giving a flat zero I think undersells RE completely. It is easily the biggest Japanese franchise with no involvement in Smash. It is incredibly relevant, with the RE2 remake just happening. It has a good history with Nintendo, especially recently with all of the ports. It also would be the perfect representation of the horror genre, which is not represented yet unless you consider Castlevania horror (which I do not). These things help make RE content happening make so much sense. The timing is perfect for it, it is a legendary franchise.

I feel that while I would understand a low score, a flat zero should be used more sparingly in my opinion. A flat zero should mean that there is no true conceivable way the character will get in this game. Thinking RE content is unlikely is fine. But it is certainly not a zero percent chance of happening.

Fixed schedule btw will be coming tomorrow.

 

[RouffWestie]

Steve
Chance: 5%
I don't think he reaches an audience that hasn't already bought a Switch, a copy of Smash, and the fighters pass. With only 2 slots left, I doubt he would make it over other characters.
Want: 20%
I still like Minecraft and think it would be neat to see what kind of moveset they could give him. But I'm not really invested in it that much.

Jill
Chance: 60%
RE makes a lot of sense as one of the next franchises that will be represented in Smash. It is obviously popular, it's got a lot of history, and it's a name that's recognizable to average gamers. It all comes down to whether or not Nintendo decided enough people would be interested in her.

Want: 0%
I've got no attachment to this series. She doesn't look interesting. If I wanted to play as this type of character, I'd just use ; infinitely more charismatic and has the same tools, if not better, than these characters.

Leon
Chance: 60%
Same as above.
Want: 0%
Same thing as above.

RE Rep
Chance: 60%
Same as above
Want: 1%
I love seeing how different video games are represented in Smash and would love to see what they could do with the horror genre. I like that Monster Hunter is represented with Rathalos as a boss. It's a very fitting way to include the main element of the Monster Hunter franchise in Smash. I like that Wii Fit, a fitness game, is represented with the avatar performing stretches to attack. I like that the NES zapper games where you would aim and shoot at the screen are now cleverly brought onto the Battlefield with a character that has several attacks where an implied character shoots from across the other side of the television.
But compared to those, having a boring ass agent to represent Resident Evil is underwhelming. I can only give a single percent because, hopefully, they would at least come with a stage that gets the job done.

 

[Troykv]

Steve? from Minecraft

Chance: 10%

He's now in a similar position of that of First Party Characters somehow, and maybe even worse because there isn't as big of a popular demand as of many other characters for him. Minecraft was mostly expected, and that was because he is pretty much the antithesis of Banjo (a character considered a wild dream) as a Smash Pick, in pretty much every single way. Steve now depends of the possibility of future Fighter Passes or other kinds of DLCs.

Want: 40%

Eh, nothing against the character, but doesn't appeal to me in any particular way; I like the game thought.

Concept: Resident Evil Character

Chance 50%

I'm very confident in the idea of a RE Character being a reality for the fact this franchise is popular, it would introduce people that wouldn't otherwise play Smash and it's one that Nintendo it's actually interested in promoting in their own platform. Resident Evil also got some important games that became tendency in internet; Resident Evil it's back with full force.

Want: 50%

I'm not sure how the characters would work, but I'm open to surprises.

Leon Kennedy

Chance: 45%

If a Resident Evil Character happens, he's without a doubt the most likely choice. Leon Kennedy it's the protag the most associated with Nintendo, and it's also the Main Character of Resident Evil 2 Remake; what a perfect moment to revive Leon.

Want: 55%

I kind of like Resident Evil, and Leon it's of the male characters the one I like the most

Jill Valentine

Chance: 20%

She is the alternative to Leon Kennedy if for some reason they wanted another character, it applies a similar reasoning to the Resident Evil Concept, and well, she is one of the most recognizable characters of the franchises like Chris and Leon.

Want: 55%

Female characters are always nice, I like her design.

____________________________

Nominations:

Micaiah x10

 

[Sari]

Brown bricks

Chance: 5%
It's like Steve had a giant tower of things going for his Smash inclusion, only for a certain bear with yellow shorts to knock it down. I don't see them double-dipping with Microsoft this season so Steve's chances take a giant hit thanks to Banjo. That said though, Vergeben said there'd be some form of Minecraft content in Smash and given his track record for Ultimate I can't exactly dismiss Steve just yet. He'll probably just get a mii costume though.

Want: 0%
Nothing against Minecraft or anything but Steve is just so bland and visually unappealing. This is one of the few characters with a somewhat realistic chance that I would flat out hate to see in Smash. Also I have zero interest in Minecraft's soundtrack appearing in Smash.

----------

Resident Evil

Jill chance: 40%
Leon chance: 45%
Overall Resident Evil rep chance: 50%

Resident Evil is Capcom's biggest franchise without any Smash representation so I think the series is ripe for a playable rep by now. That is of course assuming we get another Capcom rep which I think could go either way. While there is a small chance Chris could get in, I don't see him (or any other RE character) making it in over Jill or Leon.

When it comes to Jill or Leon, it seems that Leon is more likely. He has the advantage of being more popular among fans (from what I can tell), starring in RE4 which is one of the most acclaimed Gamecube games, and of course starring in the recent RE2 remake.

Jill has one slight advantage over Leon in that she debuted in the first ever game. Other than that though Leon would probably have priority over her for the reasons stated above.

Want (for all RE characters): Abstain
My only real experience with the series is playing a bit of RE4. I don't have that much relation with the series so I won't comment.

Nominations:
Terry Bogard x10

 

[Ultomato]

S(he) Te(lie)ve(d)

Chance: 1%
Not zero because the option is there, just...
Were likely not getting another Microsoft rep in this DLC cycle because of Banjo. And even in the next game: we don't know whether Banjo got special treatment because of Rare. Steve doesn't have that advantage.

Want: 60%
I've grown to like Minecraft over the past few months true Fwobs letsplay and I would like to see the game represented. However... I don't know how it'd be represented. Steve has no personality. At al. The music is boring and not suited for smash. Would you pick random mobs for the Spirits? Only the stage would really work.
So bottom line I would like to see Minecraft representation I just don't see it being good content.

3 interchangable ratings because it's all the same ****ing thing.

Chance: 35%
A capcom rep is a given at this point. As I mentioned several times before: I think Phoenix Wright is the most logical choice that would appeal to the widest audience. However, RE is still a very popular franchise and should not be overlooked.

Want: negative percentages
I really, really, really don't like the horror genre. Now, you could say "But Bayonetta was Times down for smash!". The same argument pops up for Doomslayer. Here's the thing: Bayo's genre is beat-em-up. You can properly represent that genre without swearing and sexual content. Dooms genre is Shooter and the same goes there for the gore.
You can't properly represent a horror game without horror. There's the hypocracy of it all: I hate horror but RE is still a very popular series with a huge legacy and, if I am to believe the people who play it, it's damn good games. I think it deserves a spot in smash, but I wouldn't want it to be repped poorly. Now with other characters I don't like I can Just... Not play Them, but here, the horror would Just seep through with the character and the stage if you face players online, meaning you unvoluntarily get horror in your party fighting game. I don't like that.

Noms: Rundas x5, Medabots rep x5 (I know it's gonna be 0% but let me dream okay!)

 

[Ornl]

I feel that while I would understand a low score, a flat zero should be used more sparingly in my opinion. A flat zero should mean that there is no true conceivable way the character will get in this game. Thinking RE content is unlikely is fine. But it is certainly not a zero percent chance of happening.

Thanks for your feedback, For my part, I would wait to read all the RTC shared posts before assuming that Resident Evil rep may be possible. I think that the Resident Evil chances increase mainly because of the names "Capcom" and "Resident Evil" are repeated in the messages of the forums. I think that repeated names are self-conditioning and self-influencing. Personally, I don't forget that I always thought Resident Evil was impossible, even I would be very happy to be wrong. For the moment, I still feel more in tune with some reviews from RTC about Jill for Sm4sh.
I warn other readers who would like to react that this poll makes it possible to express my feeling, and a reaction to a feeling can be considered as a judgment. I don't want to debate, but only to participate in a poll.

 

[Nquoid]

Steve:
Chance 5%
Want 5%

Whilst I don't think Banjo deconfirms any Minecraft content at all, I do think it makes Steve's chances almost 0. That doesn't mean I don't think they can throw a curveball at us and we get two Microsoft reps, but I think it's very unlikely.

I think Steve is my most "huh, people want this guy character?". I played and loved Minecraft when it first game out, watched Youtubers play around in it for years, and whilst working in retail I can't tell how much general Minecraft merch I sold. But never once did I look at Steve and think "this guy would fit perfectly in Smash". Would love to see Minecraft content, I don't want to see a slot used for Steve.

Leon
Chance 75%
Want 65%

Resident Evil 4 is widely seen as the one of the greatest games of all time and most people still think of that as a Gamecube title. If any Resident Evil rep gets chosen, it's going to be Leon. Just because of that legacy

I'm conflicted on the want though. Capcom already has so much content in the game, and I'm sure part of that is because they're so willing to play ball and probably have the deepest roster of any Japanese developer, as can be told by their own proliferation of crossover fighters. But unless we decide echoes don't count, then they'll have more characters than Sega, The historic Nintendo rival, and that feels wrong.

Jill
Chance 60%
Want 55%

Resident Evil 1 Remake on the Gamecube is sitll her most significant outing on a Nintendo console, and it is still the default version of that game. Plus the fact that Resident Evil 3 Remake is heavily rumoured to be coming very soon. I think Leon is the poster boy for Nintendo Resident Evil, but Jill is one of the stars of the first game, and didn't have her star tarnished by the 5 and 6 like some of the other Resident Evil protogonists

Same deal as Leon really, except I don't have the affection I have for 4 when it comes to the games that Jill stars in. I think Resident Evil is a worthy franchise to be in Smash, but maybe not at the expense of some other franchises.

Resident Evil Rep
Chance 75%
Want 65%

Same scores as Leon because I think that's my roof for a character, even if they had alts. Resident Evil is probably the biggest Eastern franchise not yet in Smash. Obviously sales aren't the most deciding factor, but that coupled with their significant presence on Nintendo consoles historically and the fact that the latest Direct spent a weirdly long time promoting the two worst titles in the series, it feels like something might be brewing there.

In terms of want, I think I'd much rather see Bandai Namco and Koei Tecmo get reps this time around. I'm very much of the opinion that we should be spreading the wealth amongst companies that have supported to Nintendo, and it would be great to see Lloyd or some other Bamco rep getting in as a thank you for the hard work they've put into Ultimate. Resident Evil is fantastic franchise that should be in Smash someday, but we also have Street Fighter and Mega Man, and that feels right so far.

 

[BowserKing]

Steve

Chance: formerly 30 to 40% given how popular Minecraft is. But with Banjo and Kazooie already in, chances are it's 10 to 15% (more likely as an assist now)

Want: 100%. As a big fan of Minecraft, I was wanting Steve to be playable since 2015, when Minecraft started to become more possible for Smash. Steve has a lot of moveset potential, making him a fun fighter to play as.

Resident Evil Rep

Chance: 10 to 20%. Given how popular they are and the re releases for the Switch, it could work. Plus Capcom is well represented in smash, so who knows.

Want: 50 to 60%. They have some potential as fun fighters. Their stage would be a deadly and fun stage to play on as well.

Noms: 2 for Adeleine and 3 for Boss: Kracko

 

[FancySmash]

House Builder

Chance: 5%
Banjo effectively stole Steve's spot, and in the event that another Microsoft character is chosen in a theoretical second pass, Master Chief returns as Steve's rival. It's very possible we may even see some Microsoft characters, such as Steve himself, as Mii costumes when Banjo releases. Though with only two fighters left to reveal, Steve's chances are rather low at being one of those two for the first pass.

Want: 25%
Eh, while Minecraft doesn't really interest me in terms of character, I will admit something unique could be done with a stage or moveset. That said, a lot of characters can have unique stages and movesets, so I guess that's not the true deciding factor.

Zombie Killer Female

Chance: 45%
I concede that a RE character might have a good chance. However, Jill doesn't have the highest chance. There's a certain... other character rated today with slightly better chances than her. That's not to say I think her chances are the worst. IDK, in some strange situation, maybe her competition is passed over.

Want: 50%
No connection to the resident evil franchise. So I'm just gonna go with a neutral 50% that could either increase or decrease if I ever form an opinion.

Zombie Killer Male

Chance: 50%
Simply a 5% better chance because of the being the more popular of the two. But let's be honest, after the Hero reveal, it's very possible a similar situation could be applied to various RE protagonists. That's why I really think the slightly better odds don't really matter all that much in the long run.

Want: 50%
Exactly the same situation with Jill. With no knowledge of the series what so ever, I'm gonna have to go split right down the middle in want.

3rd Resident Evil Rating today

Chance: 60%
In terms of seeing new franchises, Resident Evil doesn't have that bad of odds. Of course, with only a few spots left, I don't expect to see some representation, but it certainly has decent chances. Decent amount of games on Nintendo consoles, Capcom works well with Nintendo, only issue comes from competition with the previously rated Phoenix Wright.

Want: 50%
I really don't know how to say the same thing for a third time here. If it happens, cool. If not, oh well. Doesn't bother me one way or the other.

Predictions: N/A

Nominations:
Kamek x5
Captain Rainbow x5

 

[SilentSentinel]

Steve - 3% chance

Steve is probably toast with Banjo getting in, but we all know how big MC is and I still thinks there's a chance of this happening, if an exceedingly small one. If Steve doesn't get in, I think there's a solid chance of it happening next game.

Steve - 65% want

I've never played Minecraft, just kinda missed the boat since I was a but old for it at the time and focused on other genres. I think I would have enjoyed it if it had come out at the right time for me though. During the big Banjo/Steve debates the legitimate Steve fans left a good impression on me and I think he could be a very interesting fighter.

Jill - 30% chance

If I had to bet on any single franchise getting one of the remaining two fighters pass spots it would be Resident Evil, but which character? Jill has a few titles on the Switch now and of course was the first protagonist which does help, but Leon's debut game starting out on the GameCube and being a massive critical success may give him the edge. Something underrated for Jill could be that they may have wanted to make sure they added at least one female character, and Jill is a big female icon in gaming since Resident Evil kickstarted the survival horror genre. Jill has also been used more in crossovers between the two of them, showing up in MvC and Project X Zone.

Jill - 70% want

I prefer Leon since 4 was my first RE title, but I'd be cool with Jill as well. I love the franchise and would really like to see it in Smash Brothers.

Leon - 40% chance

Leon's Resident Evil 4 and 2 Remake have both been extremely well-received and the latter of those having released this year makes him fresh in people's minds. If they do another reveal at this years Game Awards it could see it being Leon since RE2R could have a presence there.

Leon - 90% want

Leon is my favorite character in the series and I think he'd be a great addition. I've always been sad that Jill and Chris tend to get the spotlight in crossovers so Leon making it would be really cool.

RE character - 75% chance

I basically added Jill and Leon's chances together with an additional 5% in case they decide on Chris or something else, but those two really feel like the frontrunners. Resident Evil is quite possibly the best selling Japanese IP that isn't in Smash, and Capcom has shown plenty of willingness to collaborate with the Smash team. I think Capcom getting another character in this pass is extremely likely, and Resident Evil is a juggernaut franchise. Phoenix Wright makes some sense as well and I could see some drawing parallels to Banjo vs Steve (smaller series with strong Nintendo history and some noted fan demand vs massive franchise), but I'm not so sure the Ace Attorney fan demand has been as noticed as Banjo's long running requests were. Plus, Capcom has arguably already acquiesced to fan demand by adding Mega Man to Smash 4 over Resident Evil despite the RE franchise having outsold Mega Man by nearly 60 million copies. It's time for their big money franchise to get in, and it's an addition that is instantly recognizable worldwide.

RE character - 90% want

As I said before, Leon is my preferred pick, but I'd be happy with just about anyone. Even if Chris with a reskinned Charizard Rock Smash was the pick.

 

[DaUsername]

Minecraft meme man
Chance: 0%
Steve is the main character of the highest selling game of all-time. Microsoft is pretty close to Nintendo when it comes to Minecraft, with stuff like the Mario DLC and crossplay. Too bad none of that matters since Banjo got in anyway!
But seriously, I don't think we'll see another MS character any time soon, and even if we did, I'm not sure if Steve would even be first in line.
Want: 0%
Despite Banjo getting in, I still don't think this guy should be in Smash. He's just not that interesting. He'd make an okay Mii costume, though.

RE ratings will come later, probably.
Noms: Another western character x10

 

[Wunderwaft]

Blockman

Chance: 5%
With Banjo getting in I believe this puts a damper on Steve's chances, because I don't find it likely that any company is getting two characters as DLC. Who knows, maybe there is a small possibility that Nintendo is double dipping for both, but I wouldn't really count on it. I see Steve as a Smash 6 addition, as he is a big name that will no doubt sell copies of the next Smash title.

Want: 100%
I do believe Minecraft deserves a spot in Smash. It's influence and impact on gaming cannot be ignored that easily. It's a game that everyone knows, played by all ages, and loved around the world.


Jill

Chance: 50%
I believe Resident Evil has a pretty good shot for DLC. It's a big IP owned by Capcom with some games on Nintendo consoles. And between all the possible characters Jill Valentine has a good possibility of being the representative of the series.

Want: 70%
I do like Jill, and she's my second preferred Resident Evil character. If she gets added then I'll still be happy with the outcome.


Leon

Chance: 50%
Same as Jill. Leon is one of most likely characters to represent Resident Evil as he is extremely popular and iconic. Resident Evil 4 was a limited exclusive for the Gamecube. And no doubt a lot of people discovered the series through that game. Hell it's still being released to this day! Regardless I find Leon to be of equal footing to Jill when it comes to who might be the representative of the series.

Want: 75%
Hell yes I want to see Leon! He's my most preferred Resident Evil character and I do wish to see him playable in Smash.



Resident Evil concept

Chance: 50%
Blah blah blah Resident Evil is popular you get the gist of it. I will say this however. I think if we get a Resident Evil character then we might the most popular characters as alt skins, I mean hey it happened with Hero as well. And when it's so hard to agree on one single character I think the development team might pick the most popular characters and add them as alt skins, which would satisfy everyone.

Want: 75%
Resident Evil is a series that I grew up with and love immensely. I do want to see this series get represented in Smash, it's an iconic and beloved franchise that influenced the gaming industry heavily. The idea of a playable character appeals to me since I'm intrigued in how the developers might incorporate a fighter from Resident Evil and what sort of ideas they might pull off.

 

[TheCJBrine]

My Boi:

Chance: 2.5% - I think Steve has a shot, however I find it hard to have any confidence in him making it in this time around unless there's a second Fighters Pass. While a second Microsoft character is certainly possible, I feel the next two characters may be from either Capcom and Namco or more new companies. Not because of the company, of course, but because Nintendo may want to make more relationships or they may find it easier to work with their current ones, so I think the chance of Steve making it this time is very small.

Want: 100% - I've become very attached to Steve as a character, having loved Minecraft since I first played it in 2011. While I usually use my own skin in the game instead of the default, I've always known about Steve or "Mr. Minecraft" and have seen him as a face of the game, especially considering he has a lot of merchandise, is on promotional material, and I think he was even the main character getting an invitation in the Minecon 2011 trailer. He may not have an official personality, but that's no different from other avatar characters and you can imagine one for him (I personally base his personality on what you have to do in Minecraft + imagine him being humorous as well due to how Mojang and some Minecraft stuff tend to be humorous); his animations shouldn't be a problem either, as he may have stiff limbs but I'd personally love it if they kept the stiff limbs, and his animations in Minecraft show he can move his limbs in all directions so Sakurai should have no problem making new ones for him, just like he did for every other character. I don't really care about the animations and stuff that much, though; I just want Steve to be in, giving us Minecraft stuff and a cool block dude to play as. I imagine him being very fun, and likely being funny as well, building blocks with one move and using various tools, weapons, and items in other moves, including items like potions and stuff unique to Minecraft.

Nominations:

Ninten x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Real quick update.

I have the tentative schedule down. There is just one more thing I wanted to talk about first: Crash.

He is not on the schedule. I left him off because I felt we just rated him and it would be biased given that I feel he would do even better right now. But if people want him on it I will put him on there.

As for the schedule, it is pretty simple. A couple of double days. I will let you know what the first day of it is now though since in my opinion it is the most important day going forward.

Day 302: Concept: Second Fighters Pass, Concept: Stages outside of the Fighters Pass and Concept: Echo Fighters and DLC

This is important because it essentially helps us codify what we expect. Food for thought.

I will likely end the day either tonight or tomorrow, pending participation.

 

[Ridrool64]

On Crash:

Even though we literally just rated him a little bit before E3, the fact that his new game is shaping up to be a major success and the fact that the western barrier has been officially broken means that Crash Bandicoot already needs yet another rerate.

Things have changed drastically enough that I normally wouldn't go for it, I'd be down for it since A. Crash is my uncontested Number 2 as of late and B. I think people would either see Banjo getting in as either the reason "he's in" or as a soft-disconfirmation.

That being said, we could stand to wait for a bit, so maybe tack him on at the end.

Is today the new day, or...?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Don't forget that we rated Edelgard at the very end of base game, and at the very beginning of DLC. I think we should do Crash again, now that his chances have increased even more in my opinion.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

So given popular demand, I decided that we shall do Crash as well. Here is the final schedule

Day 302: Concept: Second Fighters Pass, Concept: Stages outside of fighters pass and Concept: Echo Fighters and DLC
Day 303: Monster Hunter and Morrigan (Capcom Day)
Day 304: Captain Toad and Dixie (Mario Day)
Day 305: Lloyd Irving and Yuri Lowell (Tales Day)
Day 306: Rayman and Ezio (Ubisoft Day)
Day 307: Geno and Sora (Square Day)
Day 308: Ryu Hayabusa and Chosen Undead (Involved in leaks day)
Day 309: Shantae and Professor Layton (Smaller Niche franchises day)
Day 310: Edelgard, Dmitri, Claude, and Blyeth (Three Houses Day)
Day 311: Melmetal and Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon (Gen 8/Game I no longer am going to buy day)
Day 312: Concept: Tekken Rep and Concept: SNK Rep (Fighting Games Day)
Day 313: Agumon and Jibanyan (Monster Catcher Day)
Day 314: Crash and Spyro (Activision Day)
Day 315: Maxwell and Hollow Knight (Smaller niche stuff day 2)

Morrigan and Spyro due to being the leading characters for a long time on the noms list were incorporated into the fixed schedule. I took a group of popular or highly rated ideas and characters and grouped them together. Themes for the days I think are relatively clear, wanted to group similar enough stuff together.

In other news, I have decided it is time for a minor noms purge. Anything with less than 50 noms will be purged after this fixed schedule is done with. Given that there are 14 days, you can easily get whatever is low outside of the purge or even get something completely new out of the purge before it is done.

The day will end at midnight EST. Last call.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

and Dixie (Mario Day)

M a R i O ?

 

[RealPokeFan11]

M a R i O ?

Technically, the DK, Yoshi, and Wario universes are all a part of the Super Mario universe as a whole. Dixie and K. Rool were in Mario Super Sluggers.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I changed my mind I am ending the day now. I gave a lot of time and I am satisfied with discussion. Usually when I extend these days it just ends with a straggler posting but I want to get this day started now.


Stages outside of the Fighters Pass

66% Chance

Smash 4 did have DLC stages, quite a few in fact. However, the big crux of those were due to the stages being either cut from past smash games (I was elated when Pirate Ship, Dreamland, and Hyrule Castle came back) or were to advertise a new game in Mario Maker.

Thing is, Ultimate kinda kills any past stages coming back. Sector Z and Zebes are just too similar to Corneria and Brinstar. Mute City is very similar to Port Town Aero Dive. Mushroom Kingdom Melee is too similar to 64. Nobody misses Icicle Mountain. From Brawl, imma go out on a limb and say no one misses Rumble Falls. The flat zone stages were mashed together. Miiverse is dead. I doubt Pyrosphere is coming back for a big reason. Jungle Hijinx I think was cut for stage morph seeing as it would not work with the concept.

The big popular cut stages that would have a chance of coming back would be Poke Floats, Pac Maze, and Rainbow Road. Problem is, two of those stages were made with reused assets. With the Pokemon 3D models being future proofed (I am still mad so many won't be in SwSh at all), Poke Floats is the top contender to come back. Rainbow Road used the 3DS level, so unless they are going to rebuild that stage or revamp it for MK8 I do not think they will bring it back. As for Pac Maze, it would need a complete revamp, but I could see it coming back due to how iconic of a location it is.

Other than that, the only other stages that might come back are Pictochat, which I do not think will have enough demand seeing as Pictochat 2 exists rn, Orbital Gate, which I personally think would not come back due to lack of demand, and Wooly World, which I personally think is not coming back since I feel they would have added it around the time of Crafted World.

So out of the past stages, only two in Poke Floats and Pac Maze I feel have any chance. However, we also have to take into account the idea that stages might be used to promote new releases. If this is to be done, looking at Nintendo's release schedule the most likely games that would be promoted this way would be Three Houses, Links Awakening, LM3, and SwSh. Personally, I would not see promotion of Astral Chain or Daemon X Machina in a stage as likely, if they get content it will be a character. The only way to tell though is time.

Fighters Pass 2

75% Chance

I am pretty confident in this. Ultimate sold over 15 million units. assuming that at least 2 million bought the full fighters pass, that is 50 million in revenue. And that is not counting individual DLC packs. Granted, they have to divide up the money over third parties, but even at a lowball this is profitable enough I would be shocked they did not do a season 2.

I feel the elephant in the room is Smash Wii U. There is a clear reason Smash Wii U's DLC ended early. Rather, two reasons. Smash Ultimate and the Switch. The fact these two exist and started so soon after 4 shows why it was cut down early. I think this time, with no new system on the horizon and a much larger market, there will be a season 2.

Echo Fighter DLC

80% Chance

I actually am very confident in this over the other two. Part of me thinks due to mainly a lack of effort needed. For the time that it would take them to make a whole new stage, a brand new character, and a whole cinematic trailer, you could make a whole echo pass. Nintendo has plenty of candidates for this, so I think it is not a real question of no one being suited for it.

As for third parties, I could see echoes as well. I can see a mini pass with Shadow, Big Boss, and Protoman (they already have the model for him in the final smash). It just seems like easy money

100% Want for all

More content is more content. Why would I not want that? I want to get the most out of this game. I want to see more and more characters enter the fray. I want that mural to get even more packed. Imagine seeing Dixie Kong on that mural in an echo pass. Or imagine seeing Crash Bandicoot, Phoenix Wright, the RE Cast, Doomguy, Spyro, and hell even Sans duking it out on the mural. I want the hype train to keep going. I just want the best ending.

Heavy x 5

M a R i O ?

Technically, the DK, Yoshi, and Wario universes are all a part of the Super Mario universe as a whole. Dixie and K. Rool were in Mario Super Sluggers.

 

[Sari]

Stages outside fighter pass

Chance: 55%
With a lot of new Nintendo games coming up, I think there's a decent chance of them adding a promotional stage without going through all the effort to add a character. They sort of did that with the Mario Maker stage in SSB4 and I could see them doing the same thing with Three Houses or Sword/Shield.

Season 2 DLC

Chance: 30%
Sakurai has recently talked about his experience with DLC, saying that DLC is often risky to make and that it's usually better to just move onto the next game. A season 2 could still happen especially since Ultimate has been shattering records for Nintendo, but I'm honestly leaning towards them just wrapping up everything with Ultimate by the time this season pass ends.

Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 45%
Echos seem easier to make than regular characters so they could always add in an additional echo or two. I still find it weird how they made a big deal about echos being a thing but in the end we didn't get that many new ones.

-----

Want (for all of these): 100%
Pretty self-explanatory. More characters + stages keeps the game alive and makes speculating who will appear even more fun. I'd rather them support Ultimate over many years than to have to wait for the next game which would probably be on a different system anyway. In terms of new stages I'd like to see what they could do with a Three Houses stage. For echos I'd be down for a Princess Hilda echo off of Zelda. Having a second season pass would be great to have and hopefully we get some of the missed out first parties. There are so many possibilities with what they can do with DLC.

Monster Hunter chance prediction: 32.59%
Morrigan chance prediction: 5.11%

Nominations:
Boy this is tough. I still have about 95 extra noms and we already have Crash + SNK on the schedule...

I guess for now I'll throw my daily 5 noms to Heavy (TF2).

 

[BowserKing]

Second Fighters Pass

Chance: 50%. There have been rumors that there are 16 slots available in the game that are for DLC. Four have been given to and , with 2 more coming to the fighters pass. But then again, who knows.

Want: As long as there is first parties, 100%. If promoted spirits, Pokeball Pokémon and assists are allowed, then my choices are Fawful, Ray-Man, Shantae, Lugia and Knuckles (Krystal and Midna are honorable mentions). If not, then my choices are Steve, Sceptile, Porky, Midbus or Bendy

Stages Outside Fighter's Pass

Chance: 25 to 50%. DLC stages have already appeared in Game 4 without having characters to go with it, so who knows. Then again, there is a lot of stages to choose from.

Want: 100%. I definitely want Rainbow Road, Poke Floats, Meta Crystal, Pac-Maze, Yoshi's Woolly World and Rumble Falls to return. I would also like to see new stages like Bowser's Castle and Alolan Cruise.

Echoes Pass

Chance: 50%. They are easier to implement then new fighters, giving them an advantage. I feel this is a way to add fighters, without bringing in stress to come up with a moveset.

Want: 100%. I'll definitely be up for having Dark Bowser, Shadow, Dixie Kong, Octoling and Dark Meta Knight as echo fighters. This could hopefully bring in variety to choose, without being difficult to control at first.

Noms: 2 for Decidueye and 3 for Earthworm Jim

 

[GoodGrief741]

I never know how to rate these concepts. To me it's always a coin flip, either it happens or it doesn't. I won't be making any arguments or presenting any facts different from the rest so I'll just abstain.

As for Want, everyone gets 100%

Stages are really lacking this game. Don't get me wrong, there's 108, but I always felt that a Smash game's identity was in big part because of its stages. This time around they're all old stages, except for like 4. That kind of sucks, so yeah I'm all for new ones.

A second Fighter Pass is a no brainer. As satisfied as I am with this one, I want ****ing Nintendo characters in my Nintendo game. If we're not going to get a new Smash game in like ten years (I'm all for that btw) I would at least like to get some characters that at this point have no good reason not to be in Smash. If there's a second FP and it's more third parties, I'm gonna boycott.

Echo fighters are the biggest wasted idea Smash has ever had. They clearly didn't make many because they didn't know the reception they would get (something I get behind and should be implemented more *looks at Incineroar*) but yeah, the echoes we got were great, they padded out the roster and were more fanservicey than the unique newcomers. There's so many characters that could be clones and their fans would still be so happy! Make those fans happy, and they'll pay you.

Noms: Cronox5

Predictions: Monster Hunter 5.41%
Morrigan 1.8%

 

[GoodGrief741]

A lot of you didn't get their noms counted. It's a common occurrence when there's a lot of things to rate. Just be careful with the noms purge.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve/Leon S. Kennedy/Jill Valentine/Resident Evil rep pre-Concept: Second Fighter Pass/Concept: Stages outside the Fighter Pass/Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC

That's a long tag.

The new top seven consists of Heavy, Crono, Kyle Hyde, Kamek, Ellie, Saber, and Rundas.

Captain Rainbow bursts past 50 noms.

The concepts Dragalia Lost rep and Another western character reach 25 noms.

Today's new nominees are Kyo Kusanagi and Concept: Medabots rep, both with 5 noms.

Calcs will probably come tonight.

 

[Ridrool64]

Another $25 possibly wasted, possibly worth your time? Who knows.

Chance: 20%. I've made my peace with the possibility Arle (and Crash, as well as everybody below him, but I don't have the same level of personal investment as with Arle to Crash and below) may have to wait 10 years for the next chance at stardom. Everything is pointing towards this being the only set of DLC we get, much less the only pass we get. Sakurai has (I believe this was an unconfirmed rumor, though) mentioned DLC isn't as lucrative as base-game, in that same listing I can at least remember a line about a "sometimes it's better to move on to the next game", Sakurai and crew have been working on Smash for 7/8 years in a row at this point, the crew in general is dwindling as development goes on, Nintendo games are very, very rarely supported beyond year 1, and there's possibly a few more factors that might be at work. Now, it could be that Nintendo wants more money and they'll make more passes for more fighters as long as it keeps making money, but I don't know if they'll do that.

Want: I'm going to give three want scores for this concept.

Arle is a part of this pass: 100%, she's in and I don't care about anything anymore. Arle is a part of THAT pass: 100%, it means she's in.

So let's assume she's not. I'll go for a 75% score here. After all, more fighters would be more fun, more stages would be more fun, more music means more to love. I want to see this game thrive and survive for long, long periods of time, but at the same time, maybe there'll need to be a point where development stops. If we hit the big 100, great, that should be the milestone. But... that's going to add up to $50 USD, before tax, which would add up to being very, very close to the price of the base game. That's... that's a thing. And these torturous waiting periods... especially when one of your desired characters has become a major force in the speculation scene. (For me, it's not Arle, but Crash and to a lesser extent Lloyd and for a bit Frisk.)

Of course, I'm assuming the Fighter's Pass 2 would keep a balance between

Extra Stages which I can't make fun of.

Chance: 10%. Nope, I don't even expect more stages if we get future Fighter Passes. Because the bottom space of the box is apparently used for custom stages somewhere, that's it. Once we get stage 5, that'll be it for new stages unless they decide to add a new tab, which I really don't see anymore given that it'd stick out from the first 5 DLC stages, which are all on the same as the menu screen. I'm not sure they designed the stage select screen with stages beyond the current 5 extra in mind. If we do, I'd be eating my words.

Want: 75%. I mean, more locales would again, be more fun, and we really should have all the classic stages back "Everyone and Everywhere are Here!", but I would rather see them come with new fighters, or at least other new things too, if it isn't something like Poké Floats, Rainbow Road, or Pac-Maze levels of inexcusable absences, or a R.O.B. stage which really needs to be part of the game. I'm not gonna lose sleep over their exclusion, but it would be pleasant to have more beyond what we've got.

Attack of the Clones

Chance: 10%. Again, I believe the Fighter's Pass is all we're getting. No Echo Fighters will be a part of it, and I don't see an "echo pass" since that would be a massive waste of everybody's time. I found it bizarre that we're only getting a few clones, but that seems to be the way the cookie crumbles from my perspective.

Want: I've mostly shelved my desired Echoes since gunning for the uniques would be much more rewarding. That being said, 80%. Let the party grow bigger, and let the dev time get smaller. But, not part of a pass. If it can't be for free because of licensing or voice acting or whatever, release them as part of bundles, please. Not as part of a pass, that would be spending $25 for far less value, and even if it weren't that much, we'd still have this long drought we've had to put up with for ages (half a year before we got character 2, and we may have to wait for December for Banjo if we have to wait for September for Hero) only for much less. No stage, barely any songs, possibly not even DLC spirits, it'd feel like a boring endeavour if it were a pass. But, if it's not a pass? It'd be awesome.

(Psst. I'm intentionally sounding cynical so that all of these happen.)

Sunflower x 5.

 

[Jomosensual]

More DLC - Going to combine want scores here because they're the same

Chance 30 - I'm getting less and less positive on this as time goes on. This is really just my own feeling on it though as we haven't really had any info on this since the last time we rated this. Just a gut feeling right now. I think if we don't hear anything about it by E3 2021 I'll rule it dead. Until then I'm going to hold out hope because Smash reveals are among my favorite things in life.


Stages outside the fighter pass

Chance 0 - Yeah I don't think so here. The stage builder feels like it put an end to that. Doesn't really seem like there's any buzz around that possiblity and none have come out yet in the new updates. Not even sure which major stages aren't in this game other than Pokefloats. Still time I suppose, but I think thats going towards new modes instead.


Echo Fighter Pass
Chance 5 - This wouldnt be a major surprise since echos are seemingly way easier to create, but at the same time I'm running into some questions on the concept. Who would even be in this pass? There aren't a ton of names jumping off the sheet at me right now. Do they come with stages or music? What about the DLC spirit board? We're going to have to pay for them so if it's just 5 echos and nothing else that doesn't seem worth while for Nintendo to create


Wants of all of the above 100 - I'd be happy for any and all of these to come true. With Smash in my opinion more is more and I'm willing to take everything and anything they want to add on to the game

Noms
Kratos x 5

 

[3DSNinja]

More Stages:
Chances:90%: there is a serious lack of new stages. That plus the fan favorites that didn’t return (PAC-MAZE, Rainbow Road, Pokefloats makes this a certainty.
More Characters:
Chance:95%: It will happen. There are 16 empty slots, Sm4sh had its cut short, and Ultimate is a best seller. I nigh guarantee it.
More Charcters:Clone Edition:
Chance:100%: This will happen. Echoes take little dev time, there are plenty I can think of, and they are wanted. I guarantee we will get this.
Want for All: 100%: More content is just better. I would honestly see no reason NOT to support this.
Nominations: Blaze x4, Specter Knight x1

 

[jamesster445]

More stages through DLC
Chance: 50%
Want: 100%

Another Fighters Pass
Chance: 25%
Want: 100%

DLC Echoes
Chance: 50
Want: 100%

A lot of these are interconnected. They can do more characters but choose to release them individually. If more guests are included, those guests are definitely bringing a stage. But 1st parties like Rex or Porky might not need a stage. They could also do a Mario Maker and use stages to promote games like Daemon Ex Machina. And while they made a Big deal of labeling echo fighters, they haven't added that many so I wouldn't mind them adding more, even if I'm less inclined to pay for clones.

Either way I welcome all of it. My only request is that they do what Netherealm does and be upfront what these packs contain.

Nominations: Euden x5

 

[ze9]

Second Fighter Pass

Chance: 50%
In my opinion, it could go either way.
On one hand, Sakurai said in his book that DLCs are a riskier affair than some may think. On the other hand, if I'm not mistaken, Smash 3DS and Wii U DLCs have been the best selling DLCs on both their platforms, and Ultimate is probably going strong.
On one hand, Sakurai has been working on Smash for almost 10 years now. On the other, he doesn't look tired of it at all. Honestly, he looked more tired during Smash 4. He seemed really enthusiastic about Banjo, Joker and the DQ Heroes.
Even looking at the datamines, on one hand placeholders for more than the 6 DLC characters we're getting have been found. On the other, there are no placeholders for additional stages.
There's also the fact that apparently Nintendo wants to have more DLCs in their games... but it's also true that they usually haven't supported them for more than one year.
...Eeeeh, it could go either way. 50%.

Want: 100%
I'm not getting off this train until I get Dixie.

More stages through DLC
Chance: 0%
There's just no space on the stage select screen.
Want: 30%
Eeeh, I don't really care, there's plenty of stages already. It depends on what they offer. If they bring back Melee Mute City or if they do a Tropical Freeze stage, skyrocket my want percentage to 100%. If not... eh.

Echo fighters as DLC
Chance: 5%
I really don't think they'll do DLC echoes. Sakurai already said that they won't be doing them. Maybe as a bonus accompanying one of the characters of the Pass, but I don't think so.
Want: 50%
Eh, some more characters, even if they're just echoes, could be fun.

 

[Among Waddle Dees]

Concept: Second Fighters Pass
Chance: 40%. I almost want to abstain this, but if I do I'll end up abstaining the other chances. Normally I'd bump this lower since Sakurai doesn't seem invested in the idea, but this seems to be Nintendo's idea, so it wouldn't surprise me if they go for it anyway.
Want: 90%. With two fighters left on this one and concern of it all being third-party at a high rate, this should be a priority. If it ends up being another guest pass, then that'll change the rating, but I can't imagine too many instances where this would happen.

Concept: Extra Stages Beyond the Fighters Pass
Chance: 20%. I don't exactly see this happening, but including the 5 stages from the pass there is a slot missing in the stage selection. Could be that this leads to a new stage or a new menu of stages. But something tells me it means nothing and is a placeholder.
Want: 60%. Sure, I'd like it, although I'm not completely desperate for stages. Bonus points if they get added with updates, but I paid for the Super Mario Maker stage, so that's not really a problem.

Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC
Chance: 5%. Sakurai said no echo fighters, so it's likely not happening. There is a slight possibility he could change his mind, I guess. But I think that would be at the expense of a unique fighters pass.
Want: 0%. I shouldn't be this harsh, but I feel as though the process of echoes wasn't handled well, so I can't be on board. Sorry, but I don't have any characters I want to be a repeat of another.

Nominations
Adeleine (Kirby) x5

 

[Garteam]

Fighter's Pass 2 - 50%
I'm gonna be cautiously optimistic for this one.

Nearly everything seems to fall in place for this to be a near inevitability. Not only did Furukawa say that DLC that extends the shelf life of major releases was going to be a major upcoming strategy for Nintendo in the future, but Nintendo knows how much positive buzz is surrounding the Smash DLC. After all, Smash opened their biggest conference of the year with Smash and was the second last thing they showed before BotW 2. There being 15 unoccupied character slots in the base game is also rather suspicious. However, there's one thing that seems to get in the way of this: Sakurai.

Sakurai seems to be lukewarm at best on the idea of a 2nd Fighter's Pass, as he seems to fear dipping into the pool of newcomers for the next Smash. However, we've seen him change his mind on this sort of thing before (how many times has Sakurai said he's not going to direct the next Smash now?) As such, I'm going to say it really comes down to a coin flip. If Sakurai sticks to his guns, no Fighter's Pass 2 for sure. If Sakurai changes his mind, we're in business.

Extra Stages beyond Fighter's Pass - 30%

I'm not too sure about this one. We did see this kind of thing happen in Smash for Wii U/3DS, but Ultimate's DLC is much more formal than the more unstructured approach that game took. Never say never, but I think it's more likely not to happen than to happen.

Echo Fighters as DLC - 10%

I really don't see us getting an echo fighter as paid DLC. Like I said before, the more structured release schedule of Smash Ultimate makes me think an extra echo is out of the question. The only way I see this happening is if Sakurai says, "Hey, during development of the Fighter's Pass, we made this echo and we're giving them away as a special treat to fans for supporting the game for so long".

 

[chocolatejr9]

Second Fighters Pass, Stages outside Pass, and DLC Echo Fighters

Chance: 50% each
I feel like there are still too many unknowns with the DLC to determine this. They all make sense, but we don't know if there is some kind of roadmap. Plus, Sakurai apparently isn't the biggest fan of DLC in general. Even then, he has been known to change his mind on things. That was how Ridley got in, after all (okay, it was actually the Ballot, but you know what I mean). Overall, this is a bit of a coinflip.
Want: 100% each
All of these would be appealling to me. Additional characters and returning stages would be quite pleasent for the long term. It would also give me a reason to keep playing the game. We don't actually know when the next game is coming. All we know is that it probably won't be Ultimate 2, or anything like that. We may as well get these done while we still can.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

A reminder: just because you give three ratings the same score doesn't mean they aren't still three separate scores.

 

[chocolatejr9]

A reminder: just because you give three ratings the same score doesn't mean they aren't still three separate scores.

Wait, did I do it wrong then?

 

[GoodGrief741]

Wait, did I do it wrong then?

You'd need at least six more sentences for your noms and scores to count.

 

[Playstation Guy 1000]

second fighters pass
chance:45%
on one hand smash ultimate has been the 3rd best selling switch game of all time(sold almost 14 million copies) so it would be smart(from a business perspective) to make a second one but on the other hand Nintendo hasn't been focusing that much on dlc and considering Sakurai's comment on seasonal passes I kinda doubt on a second fighters pass.
want:60%
I wouldn't mind a second fighter pass to get more characters like(Crash Bandicoot, Rayman, Rex, Spring-Man etc.).

stages outside fighters pass
Chance:30%
I can somewhat see it happening but not likely especially the past stages with some being too similar to other stages(Mute City isn't there due to it's replacement Port Town Aero Dive, melee's Mushroom Kingdom was replace by smash 64's Mushroom Kingdom), or too difficult for 8 players(I.e. Icicle Mountain and definitely Poké Floats).
Want: abstain
I honestly don't know how to feel about stages outside the pass.

echo fighter dlc
Chance:10%
consider Sakurai's comment about echo fighters I heavily doubt it will happen.
want:75%
I would like to see some echo characters such as Funky Kong, Impa, Ninten and Octoling joining the fight.

Nominations: Heavy(Team Fortress) x5

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

GoodGrief741 I want to clarify if I made any errors then on previous posts.

I also am wondering, since I saw that Brian had 42 noms, was I the only one one to nom him? XD

 

[GoodGrief741]

The calcs are here. Thought it would take longer since I hadn't done calcs since E3, but turns out we only had like 5 days since then. Maybe we should work on the regularity of days...

Spoiler: Calcs

Tl;dr the following have extra noms

Artix 10 noms
Awakining 5 noms
DaUsername 50 noms
Delzethin 5 noms
FancySmash 5 noms
GoodGrief741 35 noms
PokéfreakofBACON 5 noms
Ridrool64 5 noms
Sari 95 noms
shocktarts17 5 noms
Ramen Tengoku 5 noms
Troykv 10 noms
Ultomato 5 noms
waddledeeonredyoshi 5 noms

Verde Coeden Scalesworth Whatever mistakes you might have made in the past, there's no point in fixing since you won't get those scores or noms counted retroactively. Though I'll be sure to point out any errors in the future.

And to my recollection you are the only one who has nominated Brian. Maybe a few stray noms from BowserKing who I think nominates randomly.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Verde Coeden Scalesworth Whatever mistakes you might have made in the past, there's no point in fixing since you won't get those scores or noms counted retroactively. Though I'll be sure to point out any errors in the future.

And to my recollection you are the only one who has nominated Brian. Maybe a few stray noms from BowserKing who I think nominates randomly.

I really said that poorly. I just wanted to know if I did the latest one(the RE and Steve set) correctly overall. That way I got a good idea of what to work with.

But yes, absolutely tag me if I don't have it done right. I'll always add more if asked.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I really said that poorly. I just wanted to know if I did the latest one(the RE and Steve set) correctly overall. That way I got a good idea of what to work with.

But yes, absolutely tag me if I don't have it done right. I'll always add more if asked.

Oh, you did the last day correctly.