Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[RealPokeFan11]

I'm gonna keep these short, since I'm in a lazy mood.

Monster Hunter
Chance: 20%
Want: 75%

+Widely popular and massively successful
+Highly requested and has moveset potential
-The series is already represented with Rathalos as a boss. This could either help or hurt the hunter's chances
-Strong competition from other Capcom characters

Monster Hunter sounds like a really cool character in my opinion. He (or she) feels like a great choice for the next fighter slot, and I wouldn't be mad if the hunter made it.

Cleavage: The character.
Chance: 0%
Want: 1%

-Series is dead
-Capcom doesn't give a flying you know what about the series
-Strong competition from other Capcom characters
-Barely requested
-Literally WHO!?

When I looked up Morrigan and saw her, the only reason I recognized her was because she was on a poster behind Brody's desk on that Yo Mama channel on YouTube. That really says a lot. She feels like a waste of a slot on the fighter pass, just because of how much of a "literally who" she is. I don't hate her, but I'd rather not see her make it over many other Capcom characters like Monster Hunter, Phoenix Wright, Leon Kennedy, and Amaterasu.

Captain Toad: 0.08%
Dixie Kong: 2.74%

Heavy Weapons Guy x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x10

Remember, only five nominations per day.

So it has nothing to do with my message. The intervention wasn't right, in addition to being an ad hominem feedback on a personal feeling.

Debating an argument that you previously made is not an ad hominem.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Remember, only five nominations per day.

Debating an argument that you previously made is not an ad hominem.

Ooh, right. It was ten the other day. Sorry, edited.

 

[Deleted member]

The Virgin Monster Hunter:

Chance:1%

Again, if you come from a video game, i give you a 1% by default. Realistically speaking, no matter how much merit and popularity MH has, it doesn't change the fact that it's already represented via Rathalos's Boss Fight. I don't think franchises already represented in the base game are going to be DLC (unless it's a PP situation, A.K.A a Nintendo standalone character like Dixie or Bandanna Dee), and therefore MH is automatically out.

Want:0%
I don't care about Monster Hunter, at all. I put it in the same level as Steve. Can see the merit of the character, but i i don't care in the slightlest. To me the Rathalos Boss is all it needs.
-------------------------

Morrigan:

Chance:1%
Putting her in Smash would be like if Capcom had its own Smash and put Captain Falcon as a Guest. The Darkstalkers series is pretty much dead, and while we have gotten a character whose franchises hasn't seen an installment for a decade, i think Morrigan lacks the circumstances for her to be included (Fan Demand, Support from the Company, beign seen as a former Nintendo icon, etc)

I don't think the sexyness is an issue though.

Want:0%

She is hot, but she ain't my choice for the next Capcom Character in Smash (assuming there even is one).

That award goes to:

NOMS:
THE CHAD SIR ARTHUR (GHOSTS N GOBLINS) X5

 

[FancySmash]

Monster Hunting of the non-pocket variety

Chance: 15%
Weirder things have happened. Rathalos is indeed a boss and assist trophy, but there's no playable character in sight. What does that mean? I'm honestly not sure. I have no knowledge of the Monster Hunter series. Maybe we could see a hunter? Or a popular monster? I mean, that's how Pokemon mainly decides it's roster, with popular creatures. Even when choosing a trainer, they still focus on the Pokemon. So I'll leave it at 15%, something of a maybe.

Want: 45%
I really don't have any connections to the series. That said, the Rathalos boss itself just... I don't know, I guess it feels generic. I mean, I fight it, and it comes across as a generic dragon boss. I'm sure Monster Hunter has more unique elements to pull from, but one boss isn't a good first impression for me. I guess I'll just have to see.

Moarrigan

Chance: 1%
I... guess? I mean, realistically no. Capcom has bigger fish to fry, and Morrigan and a few other Darkstalkers characters only appear in crossover titles now a days. Not Smash crossovers, Capcom crossovers. Morrigan essentially lives her days waiting for the next Capcom vs. game to be announced and participating in those. Otherwise, it's retirement for her.

Want: 40%
I also have no real connections to this series, so that's an instant 50%. However, I feel I can take a few more points off thanks to said crossover games and... oddly enough Puzzle Fighter. She's... OK, but Bayonetta already does the "dark" fighter thing. As did Dark Pit before her. And Ganondorf before him, you get the idea. Plus, if Capcom did get another fighter, I don't think it should be this series.

Dixie Kong and Captain Toad
Ah, I see the other two Nintendo All Stars are following Bandana Dee. Sorry you two, but considering he dropped in both chance and want, I can't see you guys faring much better in this era of all third parties.
8.64% for Dixie
4.56% for Captain Toad

Nominations:
Kamek x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Monster Hunter

5% Chance

The fact MH has its own section in the code and they got a chunk of the rights already makes this not a complete zero in my eyes. It is a big deal. But I do not see it happening. The fact we got MH content in the base game is the biggest tell for me. I feel if we were gonna get it as DLC, then we would get less in the base game.

Abstain Want

I aint play no Monster Hunter. I got the 3DS one and PS4 one but they way on my backlouge. Maybe someday I will be more educated.

Morrigan

1% Chance

Well she appears in essentially every Capcom crossover. That is a bonus. But Darkstalkers is as dead as disco. I also see her competition as way too big, with Resident Evil, MH, and Ace Attorney are the biggest roadblocks imo.

100% Want

I like Darkstalkers. I actually am decent at DS3 on the Saturn. I would be glad to see the franchise get some love.

Nominating Protoman x 5

 

[-crump-]

Monster Hunter
Chance: 30%
Monster Hunter is one of Capcom’s biggest franchises, especially as of recent. It makes a lot of sense to include a playable character from the series... It just seems odd they would wait this long into the game’s lifespan to do it, when Ratholos has been a part of the game since launch. I would have bought that they needed extra time to finish the character and decided to push it back to DLC, but if that were the case why were they pushed to the back end of the pass?

Still though, if we’re to expect a Capcom rep I think MH is one of the most obvious choices. Worldwide appeal, a dedicated fan base, and support on the Switch... they’ve got a lot in their favor. I think a Resident Evil character is slightly more likely, but not by much.

Want: 10%
If we were getting a character from MH I would much prefer a Palico, because that seems a hell of a lot more unique from a visual perspective. I’m also not a huge MH fan in general so eh, I’d rather see the last two spots go elsewhere.

Morrigan
Chance: 5%
A Capcom mascot to be sure... but one from a franchise seemingly dead in the water, and facing heavy competition from others belonging to the same company, all of whom are more mainstream and popular.

Want: 40%
Not familiar with Darkstalkers, but she’d make a pretty unique fighter, going off of MvC. More female representation is never bad, either.

 

[Jomosensual]

Monster Hunter

Chance 5 - Out of all the constantly floated characters I think this is the least likely. If Monster Hunter was getting in the game I really think he would have been revealed with Rathalos. I also think we're getting series that haven't been a part of smash before in this DLC.

Want 10 - Getting a generic monster hunter in the fighter pass would feel very underwhelming for me. Even throwing out the fact that we already had Rathalos shown off(getting Rathalos as a Ridley echo would have been sweet, just throwing that out there) there are so many other Capcom characters I'm more interested in seeing get into the game over MH. Phoenix Wright, Jill, Leon, Dante, and Nero all interest me more

Morrigan

Chance 20 - Going to preface this by saying that I don't know much about her or Darkstalkers so I might be off on some things, but multiple inclusions in the Marvel vs. Capcom series seems notable for her chances. Still don't think she has much of a shot though with more popular characters still not being in the game yet, but if Nintendo wanted to pick a more outside the box but not completely out there pick then I could see it


Want 20 - I wouldn't hate her getting in the game, but I would be a little disappointed if the Capcom rep turned out to be someone I don't really know when there's a lot of other reps I really want to see get in.


Noms
Kratos x5

 

[3DSNinja]

I am abstaining.
Blaze x 4, Specter Knight x1

 

[Ornl]

Debating an argument that you previously made is not an ad hominem.

Your manner of answering:
me - "Capcom rep is too obvious IMO"
you - "You used to say about Banjo and look where we are now"
uses both a false assertion about me (straw man) and the process that means "you are wrong since you were wrong before" (circumstantiæ ad hominem). Debating an argument is possible, but not with straw man and ad hominem argument which is fallacy and isn't right from the start.

 

[Nquoid]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 35%
Want 25%

I'd go slightly higher if Rathlos wasnt in the base game. Much like Minecraft, Monster Hunter feels like a franchise that is better represented through other means, which we already have. But man, Monster Hunter has become so huge in the last few years, that Resident Evil is probably the only franchise that still supercedes it at Capcom.

I've never played a MH game, but they look like a ton of fun. However I can't help but say that Monster Hunter would be fourth amongst likely Capcom franchises, and I cant deny Phoenix Wright and Amaterasu would fit my personal criteria better.

Morrigan

Chance: 5%
Want 5%

Capcom has too many other franchises that should take precedent over this one. Especially when you factor in how little mainstream attention Darkstalkers gets and I imagine a lot of people just knowing her from crossover games. Highly unlikely but not impossible.

I suck at regular fighting games, and whilst her design has always popped out I've never been inclined to play a game she's in. Couple with the franchises I personally would prefer Capcom would put in first, Morrigan is a long long way down my list of characters I'd like in Smash.

 

[Troykv]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 10%

This is a weird one; technically Monster Hunter themself isn't in the game as far as I remember... but the franchise is already represented by Rathalos (which is like the biggest icon of the franchise because the MH Protags aren't characters; at least DQ Hero's have recognizable designs)... The reason I can't give them a lower score it's because they're still one of the most popular franchises of recent years; and that can carry you, specially when you're franchise technically lacks a playable stage despite having already content there.

Want: 45%

Eh... I'm okay with it? I guess? They need to surprise me to see me more enthusiastic about them, because I don't have a particular connection with them, and at face value, they don't look special moveset wise.

Morrigan

Chance: 1%

I need to give her an almost 0% just for the fact Morrigan it's pretty much only carried for being popular thanks to Capcom crossovers and stuff; because everything else about her it's BAD NEWS; her franchise is literally dead, she lacks popular demand, and it's a character so alien to Nintendo that it would be a weird choice, but isn't impossible... it's just incredible unlikely, even more than First Parties appearing in FP1.

Want: 60%

I like her style and abilities, she is cool and sexy; I like it.

_____

Predictions:

Captain Toad: 10.3%
Dixie Kong: 11.5%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 20%

Monster Hunter is one of Capcom's most successful series, plus Monster Hunter World is their fastest selling game and I believe even their best selling game overall. It is a very popular franchise and with around 13 weapons a moveset would be very unique. However, Rathalos and MH music are in the game already, which is the best way to represent the series since it is about the monsters. This hurts the chances of a MH rep quite badly as it feels like a sign that Sakurai is fine with not having MH being represented by a playable character. Plus, Resident Evil, Ace Attorney, Devil May Cry and Okami give MH heavy competition. It could happen, but I am quite skeptical.

Want: 80%

I love the Monster Hunter games and it has some very different weapons like the Insect Glaive, giant hammer, and lance which are not usable in Smash yet. The Hunter would switch between each weapon in different attacks like the Inklings and it would be such a fun moveset. Also, plenty of awesome costume potential.


Morrigan

Chance: 1%

Darkstalkers is a long-running franchise that has a cult following and has many crossovers like in MvC. The thing is, why would Capcom or Nintendo choose Darkstalkers of all things? To my knowledge, the series has been semi-dead for a while now and doesn't offer much in the way of anything new. Resident Evil is the king of horror, Ace Attorney represents visual novels, Okami has a unique art style, Devil May Cry is 10x more popular and Monster Hunter is huge right now. It would not make financial sense to put in a Darkstalkers rep.

Want: 30% I guess

I admittedly don't know a lot about Darkstalkers but it seems like a charming series and Morrigan was one of my most played characters in MvC3. Still, in terms of Capcom reps, I would much rather have a character from the aforementioned franchises.

 

[Nemuresu]

Hunter:
Chance: 10%-If there's anything positive I can say about MH's presence in Smash, it's that it's scarce. There's more than enough material to make a pack with the Hunter in. That said, I expect everyone to come from franchises that aren't already in Smash
Want: 10%-I have 4 Ultimate for 3DS, but I never bothered going far into it, so my biggest knowledge on the character comes from the MvCI Huntress, but I do not expect the character to be a copy-paste from that game.

Morrigan:
Chance: 5%-Yes, not very likely. Don't need much to say. But frankly, I'm still not giving her a 0% due to prominence as a character, may not mean much, but still something worth looking for.
Want: 100%-Didn't nominate her for nothing. Darkstalkers, despite inactivity is so amazing, it deserves a chance at Smash. Plus, I'm for more fighting game characters, and specially music.

Predictions:
Captain Toad: 5.58%
Dixie Kong: 8.74%
I said once that only third-party characters would benefit from re-ratings, and after seeing the scores for Celica and Bandana Dee, I only expect similar results.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Nemuresu true, but look at how much things changed from November to now.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstaining on Monster Hunter, as I don't really know if they have a chance or not (Rathalos kinda threw me for a loop).

Morrigan

Chance: 0%
Darkstalkers is one of the most dead video game franchises that I know of. The last game we got was a remake of the first game, which completely bombed. This isn't exactly happening anytime soon.
Want: 5%
I will admit, a monster girl would be new and unique. However, I have no connection to the series. I will be happy for the fans, though.

Nominations: Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x5

 

[scarlet solsitce]

Morrigan in smash means so much to the Darkstalkers community I would break dance Wildly on live video for it not kidding

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Monster Hunter-
Chance: 1%. The game is heavily represented by a key part of it, Rathalos. I feel the Hunter is not nearly as important. There's some rumor that Capcom wasn't a fan of Monster Hunter as playable in the MvC series, but I didn't see any citing. I mean, it's a realistic view of the series, at least.

Want: 0%. I think it works fine as is with who we got. We don't need to add a protagonist in for the sake of it. There's multiple and viable choices within a franchise for a fun character. Pikachu showed that ages ago, being not only more popular than Red, but also a far easier moveset. Eventually we got an offshoot of Red's class with Pokemon Trainer, so but that was a good representation of the series with Pokemon switching, so it makes sense. I mean, the moveset could be fun too?

Morrigan-
Chance: 5%. She's an interesting character, and one of the least expected options. She's not as hard to tone done as people think, as you just need to reduce her chest size a bit to make the cleavage far less noticeable. She even has a nun outfit, after all.

Want: 100%. She's an amazing and fun character, actually one of the more Heroic Darkstalkers in canon, isn't a completely typical Succubus(she doesn't need to do inappropriate things with people to actually live, but it does weaken her if she doesn't), and actually isn't out to steal souls or anything like that. She also has a pretty neat moveset, despite the shotoclone status, and a good personality for who she is. Combined with some pretty good alts options(including Lilith, her sister), and she makes for a unique option. I like L. Raptor more, but no way he'd be chosen over a major mascot of the series.

I don't think there was a case of predictions today?

That said, usual noms of Brian x 5.

Edit:

Predictions-
Dixie Kong: 20%, but only as a Tag Team. I don't believe she's getting in solo as it's been a bit too suspicious she keeps missing the boat. It's far more likely he wants to keep the tag team idea. 5% as solo, because it's not impossible.
Captain Toad: 0%. I never believed he stood a chance. His core characterization is the inability to Jump. These core characterizations have never been changed outright in Smash either. Sonic still can almost not swim and now takes damage to drive it home. He doesn't have a swimming animation, but a drowning one. Just for one example. Being a cool All-Star isn't enough on its own. Keeping the character intact but interesting is way more important than that. Even those who don't normally fight(Wii Fit Trainer and Isabelle) keep their characterization overall intact. Isabelle doesn't treat it like a real fight, while Wii Fit Trainer doesn't have a pacifist outlook. That said, regular Toad or bust always felt way more realistic. Just because a prominent variation of a character comes out doesn't mean that character has anything really going for them.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Hey, I'm done with exams! Which means I have more free time, which means I might do calcs daily. Except on Fridays probably.

Spoiler: Calcs

Second Fighter Pass
40.43% Chance, 94,77% Want
This is now the most wanted concept, and the highest overall want score.

Stages outside the Fighter Pass
28.06% Chance, 75.35% Want
Last time we rated this it got 43.27% Chance and 85.96% Want. That was before the Stage Builder returned, so we didn't know what that extra spot was on the SSS.

Echo Fighters as DLC
31.16% Chance, 75.83% Want
Last time we rated this it got 26.00% Chance and 80.67% Want. At that point we didn't even know Joker so I guess anything went. Still, not as marked a fall.

There were no predictions yesterday so I won't list everyone with extra noms again.

There's some rumor that Capcom wasn't a fan of Monster Hunter as playable in the MvC series, but I didn't see any citing.

It's not Capcom, it's the MH dev team. Here's your source: https://www.siliconera.com/2011/03/...-didnt-want-the-hunter-in-marvel-vs-capcom-3/

I don't think there was a case of predictions today?

Dixie Kong and Captain Toad.

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Hey, I'm done with exams! Which means I have more free time, which means I might do calcs daily. Except on Fridays probably.

Spoiler: Calcs

Second Fighter Pass
40.43% Chance, 94,77% Want
This is now the most wanted concept, and the highest overall want score.

Stages outside the Fighter Pass
28.06% Chance, 75.35% Want
Last time we rated this it got 43.27% Chance and 85.96% Want. That was before the Stage Builder returned, so we didn't know what that extra spot was on the SSS.

Echo Fighters as DLC
31.16% Chance, 75.83% Want
Last time we rated this it got 26.00% Chance and 80.67% Want. At that point we didn't even know Joker so I guess anything went. Still, not as marked a fall.

There were no predictions yesterday so I won't list everyone with extra noms again.

It's not Capcom, it's the MH dev team. Here's your source: https://www.siliconera.com/2011/03/...-didnt-want-the-hunter-in-marvel-vs-capcom-3/

Dixie Kong and Captain Toad.

Will add those.

 

[Sid-cada]

Monster Hunter

Chance - 5% - I feel like we can't completely count them out. Yes, being in the main game is a big hit to them as of now. But Monster Hunter can be a real juggernaut in the games industry, and adding a character can seem like a good idea. Still, I feel like we should have heard something by now if they were in. That's the main problem.

Want - 60% - They'd be interesting-ish, I think. I just don't really care for them.


Morrigan

Chance - 0% - Darksalkers is currently sitting out. While not quite dead, they do need a reboot or something to make her chosen outside of just more cameos.

Want - 20% - Not interested in more fighting game characters, admittedly. After Ryu, I'd rather not have a repeat of his mechanics.


Predicitons

Dixie Kong - 1.23% - Mostly would be satisfied by Banjo, maybe?

Captain Toad - 0.45% - Peaches' Move set still stands in his way, it seems...


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over

Rate Captain Toad and Dixie Kong, Predict Lloyd Irving and Yuri Lowell.

 

[Sari]

Some music for today's characters:

Captain Toad songs:

Spoiler

Dixie Kong songs:

Spoiler

-----

Captain Toad

Chance: 1%
Not third party/spirit/tons of first party competition. If we were to get some form of Toad playable, it'd probably be the regular Toad that everyone is more familiar with. Also I don't see us getting another Mario character for this wave.

Want: 10%
Eh, I wouldn't mind Captain Toad though there are a lot of other Mario characters I'd want to see first (specifically Waluigi). I also sort of want to have the regular Toad in first.

---

Dixie Kong

Chance: 8%
Considering how popular she is I think Dixie is one of the front-runners for a first party rep. That said though I still believe that this DLC wave will mainly be made up of third parties.

Want: 90%
Dixie has always been my most wanted DK rep and is currently one of my most wanted first party reps. I think she is long overdue to appear as a playable character.

-----

Chance predictions:

Lloyd Irving: 45.36%
Yuri Lowell: 25.81%

-----

Nominations:
Heavy (TF2) x5

 

[3DSNinja]

This is going to be short.
Can't Jump
Chance:5%: He probably won't happen. He could get a sequel and be a promo pick tho.
Want:95%: He would be cool. would prefer the Wah-man tho.
Donkey Kong Country 4: Dixie's Smash Bros Adventure
Chance:15%: Second most likely first party IMO. But Bandana Dee is way more popular and we already got a DK rep...
Want:100%: More Donkey Kong Country music is always good. Plus we could get Gangplank Galleon as a stage.
Nominations: Blaze x3, Specter Knight x2

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Captain Toad

2% Chance

The greatest boon he has is the Toad model in Peach's moveset. It would mean there would not be as much of a need for new resources when making him. However, I feel it ain't gonna happen. Captain Toad never has had that much fan demand compared to other big first party characters. I do not see him getting in before Bandana Dee for instance. He might be a decent promo pick, but I aint seeing it.

30% Want

I mean I would rather just have Toad himself playable. I would take the good captain, but I would rather have Toad, Paper Mario, or hell Waluigi over him.

Dixie Kong

45% Chance

Simply put, if we get echos as DLC, she is the second most likely echo we could get in my opinion after the Octolings. It is an easy echo of Diddy that writes itself. Give her an Up B based on DK's that can be held to hover, give her Bubblegum Popgun instead of Peanuts, and change up her grab a bit to use hair. Everything else is an easy borrow from Diddy. I ain't gonna rate too many first parties this high, but this is one of the few ones I can see happening.


100% Want

I love me some DKC2. I love Tropical Freeze. I even liked DKC3. I would love to have Dixie as another notch of Rare's Nintendo history in the game.

Nominating Protoman x 5

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Captain Toad
Chance: 3%

I think he'd have a decent chance for Smash 6 or 7. However, for Ultimate, Toad is already part of Peach and Daisy's movesets.

Want: 25%

He's iconic and all and I wouldn't really mind him in a future game, but I think for now, we have enough Mario characters. Even then, if I absolutely had to pick another one, I'd choose Waluigi or Geno just to make more people happy. Though if I could replace the Piranha Plant with him I would.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 50%

If there is a 2nd Fighter's Pass that includes 1st Parties or just characters from already repped series in general or an Echo Fighter Pass, she should be the 1st in line. Regardless, she should be near the top of the 1st party list.

Want: 100%
IMO she is the biggest missing 1st party right now. It's already shocking that Rool and Banjo were added before her, now her absence is just glaring.

 

[Troykv]

Captain Toad:

Chance: 5%

Captain Kinopio it's a weird case with the fact he kind of already has a role in the form of the regular Toad, which can be both a good and a bad thing depending who you ask. But personally I think he's stucked in that limbo because of the fact Captain Toad's demand probably isn't big enough to make a difference like it would be with Bandana Dee. The fact the Toad used for Peach isn't actually Captain Toad it's the main reason I don't give them a 1%, but still, they're unlikely.

Want: 50%

The Toads are characters I don't care too much about, but I know several ironically and unironically like them, so I hope you can get some nice surprise in the future.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 30%

Dixie Kong it's probably the gold standart of a character that would benefit A LOT of additional characters other that the known 5 Characters (that most likely will be Third Party), because she is popular, and introducing her in the game actually would be very easy compared with pretty much anything else, being a semi-clone of Dixie is actually something that I kind of expect anyway. But otherwise she doesn't have that much going on without extra DLC.

Want: 55%

I appreciate the fact her fans are so active and have an incredible desire for the character despite the times it's going against her several times; she isn't exactly in her brighest moment right now, but it's far from the darkest. So let's try your best people!

____

Predictions:

Lloyd Irving: 43.3%
Yuri Lowethal: 24.5%

Nominations:

Micaiah (Fire Emblem) x5

 

[Nemuresu]

Captain Toad:
Chance: 0%-Disregarding Peach and Daisy, we already have a Mario character as DLC. I do not expect another Mario character to be in the game. Or at least, not in this Pass.
Want: 30%-I don't think more characters are necessary to show that Mario is Nintendo's top dog. Granted, I do not have anything against them.

Dixie Kong:
Chance: 1%-I'm not jumping the gun on additional DLC characters yet. I stand where all five character will be third-party, for the same reasons too: new franchises probably having priority, spirit boards, Piranha Plant shenanigans, and so on.
Want: 40%-I said it before, I don't mind her, but I'm not going to shed a tear if she doesn't happen. That, and that I still would prefer characters from new franchises.

Predictions:
Lloyd: 45.56%
Yuri: 22.47%

 

[StormC]

Captain Toad

Chance: 1%. Reasons are pretty self-explanatory, already a Spirit and stage cameo, lack of first parties on the Fighters Pass so far, generally speaking just not really on the radar at all and most likely deconfirmed. If we're getting another Mario newcomer as DLC it's 100% going to be Waluigi, which I guess is another way of saying we're not getting a Mario newcomer. Guess he isn't ready for adventure after all.

Want: 40%. I'm personally not invested in the character but it can be hard to not feel bad for the Toad fans who constantly get nothing. He's probably the single most recognizable Nintendo character not yet playable, and Captain Toad would give him a unique identity as well that could be utilized in his moveset. I'm not really invested in who the next Mario character "should" be but I would have a hard time arguing against Captain Toad's merit, especially if you think of him as a stand-in for the Toad character in general.

Dixie Kong

Chance: 5%. Having a Spirit and a Mii costume is pretty damning. The costume to me is a nod to however many votes Dixie got on the ballot, which was probably a decent amount. I'm also not convinced Sakurai sees Dixie as worth being playable on her own unless she's partnered with Diddy. If she could be conceived as an echo fighter I'm also 100% sure she would have been in the base game. Still a higher chance than Captain Toad since she has at least been considered before in some fashion and on the tier of "deconfirmation" I would put hers below the Captain's stage cameo.

Want: 90%. Easily my most wanted character left, I've wanted her since Smash 4 speculation. Her and to a lesser extent Bandana Dee would make the roster feel "complete" to me. DKC2 and DKC3 are some of my all time favorite games and I always defaulted to Dixie in them. It really feels like a shame that we get to have this amazing celebration of Rareware with K. Rool and Banjo-Kazooie in but Dixie is still sitting out. Assuming she can't be an echo I'd be totally fine with a Wolf/Lucas-level semi-clone, but at this point her best chance is Smash 6, and who knows what the DK franchise will look like by then. Although I still want to see her very much, my demand isn't to the level I think where I would be rallying around her for Smash 6 at this point, Ultimate has given me more than I could ever dream of and you truly can't have it all.

 

[Neosonic97]

Whaddaya mean, he can't jump?! He's a Mario character for crying out loud!
Chance: oof
We already got a DLC Mario character in Piranha Plant, Mario is (counting the Wario, DK and Yoshi series as Mario sub-series, as they do take place in the same universe) THE most represented series in Smash, AND the Fighter's Pass is looking to be all third parties.

Want: NO
I don't want another Mario rep until at least the next game.

Dixie Kong
Chance: double oof
She's already a spirit AND a Mii Costume, fighter's pass has a third party focus, we already got K.Rool in the game. Not much else needs to be said.

Want: ehh... 30%.
I have no real connection to Dixie. I only had a very brief experience with DKC2 (Which is also pretty much my only experience with the DKC series in general), so I'm not really fond of the idea. I can understand those who do want her, though.

Predictions
Lloyd: 40%
Yuri: 30%

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

 

[Ornl]

Captain Toad
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain
He's a 1st party and a Spirit. There are already Daisy with Toad as new Mario rep and Piranha Plant as new Mario DLC rep.

Dixie Kong
Chance : 0% (for this Fighter Pass) - Want : abstain
She's a 1st party and a Spirit. There are already K. Rool as new DK rep from ballot and Banjo-Kazooie as new Rare DLC rep from ballot.

Nominations : Lara Croft x5

 

[Deleted member]

White Man Can't Jump:

Chance: 1%

-I don't think there will be another Fighter Pass or additional characters for DLC.
-I don't see any Nintendo characters outside of a FE rep making it into the Fighter Pass.
-Already represented via Spirit.

Sorry bud, but he at least you come from a video game.


Want: 20%

I don't care about (Captain) Toad at all, but having Toad playable in some way or another should have been a thing since Brawl . Would have been a better choice than another certain DLC character......

NOT Girl Diddy (A.K.A Dixie Kong)

Chance:1%

Same as Cpt. Toad.

Want: 95%

EASILY one of my most wanted characters not playable in Smash yet. The only female nwecomer i would care about to boot. I just hope she isn't an echo. A Wolf-like approach is good though.

Noms:
Sir Arthur X2
Concept :No More DLC after the Fighter's Pass X3

 

[GoodGrief741]

Captain Kong Country: Dixie Toad Treasure Tracker's Double Trouble

Chance: 1% (each)
Want: 100% (each)

Two absolute Nintendo All-Stars. Toad is probably the single most iconic video game character ever to not be in Smash, and it's absolutely flabbergasting that he's not in when he's not even third party. Dixie, while not to the level of Toad, is still a rock star for sure, the star of one of the SNES' defining titles and a main character in another. They won't get in this Fighter Pass because it'll be third parties only and we all know that. I'm not willing to gamble on a second Pass, so until that's announced I'm thinking it's Smash 6 for them. But let's analyze them more in-depth.

Toad, specifically, is a character that apparently Sakurai can't make a moveset for. I say he should try harder instead of ****ing around with other dumb characters, but I digress. He also seems to think his appearance in Peach's moveset is either satisfactory enough for his fans, or that it somehow prevents him from being playable, yet can't be removed - he even doubled down on it by giving him an ever more major presence in Ultimate.

Maybe Toad has no clear moveset potential (he does, but let's assume he doesn't). Captain Toad solves that problem. Maybe Captain Toad didn't make the mark for Smash 4, but he did qualify for DLC, and most would prefer him to Corrin. So why is he still not in? Frankly I don't know, but it can't be a valid reason. And if there isn't a valid reason, then there might not be a valid reason for next game. I hope his fanbase rallies (it's pretty big, but it tends to die out as soon as Peach shows up for obvious reasons).

Dixie Kong, on the other hand, is a whole complication. Her fanbase can't decide whether she should be unique, an Echo, or something in-between. Sakurai could be in the same predicament - if he isn't still hanging on to the dumb notion that she only works paired up with Diddy. But the fanbase is strong, and vocal, and the fact that she could reasonably be made an Echo means that she has a bigger shot next time around. As for why she hasn't been included yet? **** if I know it took them 3 games to add Diddy and 5 to add K. Rool so maybe Sakurai just hates Rare or something.

Obviously I love both characters and they're part of the reason why I take exception when people say things like 'I hope Smash goes third parties only, the Nintendo characters are scraping the bottom of the barrel'. ***** these characters are sitting on the lid of the barrel and they're not even in so let's hold up a moment.

Yuri Lowell prediction: 19.5%
Lloyd Irving prediction: 49.99%

Noms: Crono X5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Both of them: 0.01%

-1st party characters have no chance of being in the first Fighter's Pass at this point, with most of them being Spirits including Captain Toad and Dixie. We already have Piranha Plant in the DLC so I doubt there will be another Mario character as DLC, Corrin was exception as he wasn't originally planned to be in at first. Dixie has support but still wouldn't make enough money compared to the likes of Guest Fighters, maybe in the 2nd Fighter's Pass if it's an Echo pass, but I doubt there will be any more DLC characters beyond the Fighter's Pass and maybe a stand alone promotional 1st party character.


Want: 0%

Dixie and Captain Toad are a lot more fitting for Base Game since as said before, 1st party fighters don't sell as much as Guest Fighters. I personally don't care for them TBH. I think Mario has enough characters already and I'm much more of a fan of Funky Kong than Dixie. And I rather the last two characters of the Fighter's Pass be 3rd party as well.

Tales Prediction Time:

Yuri Lowell: 45.55%
Lloyd Irving: 52.44%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Planet Cool]

Captain Toad:

Chance: 20%

Every single Smash has introduced at least one Mario character, and Captain Toad is pretty high-profile as he's been getting regular appearances in the main series since Galaxy in 2007. Piranha Plant has also put to bed the idea that "generic" characters can't be playable. On the other hand, a character that can't jump seems impossible to realize in Smash, and Peach and Daisy's specials seem to indicate that Sakurai doesn't consider him high-priority.

Want: 5%

Honestly, I don't think Toad is a very interesting character. He has the pedigree but not much else. And I think a "generic" Toad could be more interesting than Captain Toad, since he can jump and possibly use moves from games like Super Mario Bros. 2/USA and Wario's Woods.

Dixie Kong:

Chance: 80%

Dixie is one of the most conspicuously absent first-party characters, one of the most important and popular characters in the Donkey Kong series, and has been highly requested for years. Given all the love and attention that Sakurai has lavished on DK lately, I think she's pretty much a shoe-in.

Want: 100%

Donkey Kong is far and away my favorite Nintendo IP, Donkey Kong Country 2 is my all-time favorite game, and Dixie herself is my second favorite Kong (after Diddy), so I'd love to finally see her in Smash. I'd be happy enough if she were a semi-clone like Isabelle, bug since she's so unique, I think she deserves better.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Captain Toad

Chance: 0%
Honestly, Considering how much Nintendo has pushed the little guy not only with Treasure Tracker, but also over the last few games in the Mario series, I'd say he's one of the strongest contenders for a Mario character in a post-Ultimate world. That said, he has a Spirit in the base game, evolving from regular Toad, no less. So pretty much the exact same situation as Bandana Dee.

Want: 75%
I'd like to see Toad as playable, preferably borrowing not just from the Captain Toad games, but from other stuff too. Maybe Toadsworth could replace him in Peach's moveset? But even then, there are still a lot of charaters for him to go against, even in the Mario series (Paper Mario, Geno, Waluigi, etc.).

Dixie Kong

Chance: 0%
Same as Captain Toad and Bandana Dee: she has a Spirit that evolves, but it's even a little bit worse as there is a Spirit battle against her (BWD and Captain Toad evolve from Spirits you fight, while Dixie is directly fought herself). Like with other Spirits, I don't see her being promoted anytime soon.

Want: 100%
She's the last really big DK character not yet playable. And now with Banjo, her absence is even more noticeable as a Rare creation. Even if she ends up borrowing stuff from Diddy, I would love to see her as a playable fighter. When Smash 6 comes, she'll probably be one of the characters I'll rally behind the most.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[-crump-]

Captain Toad
Chance: 5%
I’m being generous, tbh.
On paper, Captain Toad has a lot going for him: I’d argue Toad is one of the most iconic characters in gaming, and the Captain is a non-generic version with his own spinoff along with multiple appearances in mainline Mario games. A spinoff which Nintendo considered valuable enough to port not once, but twice, and apparently sold well enough to warrant DLC. Adding him to Smash feels like an absolute no-brainer, and I’m almost certain he’s next on the list for first party characters.
...Which is where his problem lies. I very much doubt we’ll be getting ANY first party characters in the back-end of the Fighter Pass, and I also have doubts we’ll get any more DLC after that’s wrapped up. So, while I think under other circumstances he’d be 95% likely, here, he has basically no chance.

Want: 95%
Toad, but with a unique design and an actual personality? I love him. I think he’s more deserving than just about anyone else in Nintendo’s lineup at this point, and while I’d prefer Waluigi due to personal preference, I can’t say I’d blame anyone if CT got in first.

Dixie Kong
Chance: 5%
Not gonna say as much because almost everything I said about CT applies to her to. She’s iconic, she’s popular, and she should really be in already. Under other circumstances she’d be incredibly likely, but she’s not 3rd party so I really don’t think she’s got much of a chance.

Want: 100%
Prior to Ultimate, I saw her as a threat to K. Rool and thus wasn’t a supporter. Now that the big kroc is in, I really wish she had joined alongside him.
One of the main protagonists of DKC2 and the definitive main protagonist of DKC3 (who tf is Kiddy Kong), beloved by fans, myself included. As a full character, semiclone, or even a Chrom-esque echo, she’d be a fantastic addition, and would round out the DK representation PERFECTLY.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Since apparently people think Captain Toad's non-jumping is an issue, I'd like to remind you that Link can only jump in Zelda II and Breath of the Wild.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Monster Hunter/Morrigan Aensland pre-Captain Toad/Dixie Kong

Heavy (Team Fortress) x156
Crono x140
Kyle Hyde x140
Kamek x134
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117
Rundas x115

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Ninten x95
Terry Bogard x95
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Gene (God Hand) x80
Velvet Crowe x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x75
Specter Knight x75
Jin Kazama x70
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Micaiah x65
Blaze the Cat x60
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x55
Captain Rainbow x52
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Decidueye x49
Brian (Quest 64) x47
Concept: More Bosses x45
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x35
Gooey (Kirby) x34
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Earthworm Jim x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Concept: Another western character x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Kyo Kusanagi x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Kratos x5
Lara Croft x5
Sir Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x5
Proto Man x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Today's newcomers are Lara Croft, Sir Arthur, and Proto Man, each with 5 noms.

Icedragonadam You're gonna need more sentences for that post to get counted.

Planet Cool Jumping is a non-issue. He could always simply throw his backpack upwards a la Thor, or be carried upwards by a Flaptor, or bounced by a spring, or whatever. Having stuff happen to Captain Toad that moves him around is as much part of the game as him not jumping.

 

[Planet Cool]

Link can jump in lots of games, it's just that they don't all have a dedicated jump button.

The thing about Captain Toad is that not being able to jump is a big part of his identity. It's the reason his game plays the way it does. Of course they could let him jump on command like every other character, or come up with a cute excuse like the backpack or Flaptor, but it just wouldn't feel true to the character.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Link can jump in lots of games, it's just that they don't all have a dedicated jump button.

The thing about Captain Toad is that not being able to jump is a big part of his identity. It's the reason his game plays the way it does. Of course they could let him jump on command like every other character, or come up with a cute excuse like the backpack or Flaptor, but it just wouldn't feel true to the character.

Within Smash, I personally believe liberties with characters must be taken in order to meet their role in the game.

Easily one of the biggest examples of this is with Character size. Within Pokemon, Charizard is barely over 5 feet tall, Mewtwo is 6'6, Lucario is under 4 feet, and Pikachu is around a foot tall. Yet liberties were taken, and while everyone is in a general line with how their size is comapritively, the fact of the matter is that liberties were taken. Size also gives us more examples. Olimar is the size of a quarter, while Ridley and K Rool dwarf their heroes. Yet they are in Smash.

Liberties also are taken in the movesets of characters. Zelda borrowed the spells from OoT. Falcon literally just borrowed the model rig from Dragon King. I could go on in my view on this.

Does this potentially have a negative effect? Possibly. Sakurai is a fickle man. He may see Ridley as too big until he isn't. He may see the Miis as too peaceful until they are not.

I would argue giving Captain Toad very stumpy jumps would be true to his character. Make him have the lowest jumps in the series.


Keep in mind I think he is not happening. I just feel this arguement is flawed.