Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

Oh, you did the last day correctly.

Okay, then I'm not worried. Thank you. Feel free to let me know any I didn't do correctly if you can remember. I absolutely wasn't asking for retroactive noms or anything like that. I actually forgot to nom more often than I tend to not give enough information, heh.

 

[Icedragonadam]

Second Fighter's Pass

Chance: 10%

I really think there's going to be just one pass. It seems pretty clear from Sakurai's book that he only has plans for one, considering that Ultimate wasn't originally going to have DLC.

Want: 60%

Mainly if Tales doesn't get a rep in the first Season's Pass then I would love another one so it would be another chance for it, but even if Tales does get a rep in the 1st pass It would be a bonus.

Stages outside of the Fighter's Pass

Chance: 5%

It would be nice but we're likely getting just the 5 from the pass. 108 is a significant number after all.

Want: 75%

That said it would be nice to get some of the old stages left out like Rainbow Road. And even new ones from franchises already in.

Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 35%

Seems pretty possible as they don't take that much effort compared to unique characters to make. Although it depends on if Nintendo sees it as profitable.

Want: 80%

There's plenty of great characters to use for an echo. Funky Kong, Hilda etc.

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

If the fighter pass is so great why isn't there a fighter pass 2?
Chance: 50%
This would certainly print even more money and be a great buisness decision, but it will all depend on Sakurai regardless of Ultimate's and the Switch's long lifespans. Interviews with him have made it clear that he prefers saving characters for future games rather than continuesly work on DLC, tho I'm not really sure if he even has a vision for what the next game will even be like, so anything's possible.

Want: 100%
Anymore opportunities to get my favorites in is fine by me. This game still has a long road ahead of it so a second fighter pass just seems right to me.

Banned
Chance: 20%
Maybe? I guess it's possible looking back at Sma4sh. But the fighter pass newcomers we have already bring in 5 more stages and this game isn't really hurting for more of them anyway. Especially not after they added stage builder.

Want: 60%
Can't really say no to more content but there is no missing stage I actively want back, besides 3ds Rainbow road to a small extent.
The stages in the fighter pass might just be enough for me.

Untapped potential
Chance: 10%
Unless they are currently focussing on getting all of the fighter pass done first and aren't bothering with any echoe untill that's out of the way, I doubt this will happen as I feel that if it actually was, they probably would've confirmed it by now. Since they don't take much to make it would've made sense to announce one or two alongside a fighter pass character, which has yet to happen.

Want: 90%
Give me Octolings, Dixie, Metal Sonic etc. It feels so strange to introduce this concept and only have it apply to a tenth of the roster.

Monster Hunter: 29.65%
Morrigan: 5.32%
Gene x10

 

[Neosonic97]

Fighter's Pass 2
Chance: 50%

It really could go either way. While I do think more fighters is likely, what I'm not sure on is whether they will be as part of a second fighter's pass or completely standalone. It's just one of those things.

Want: 100%
I don't see how anybody could NOT want this. That's all that really needs saying. More chances to get your most wanted? More characters in general? Yes Please!

Stages outside of the Fighter's Pass
Chance: 10%
Probably not. The standalone DLC stages were basically just returning stages from past games with the sole exception of Mario Maker. The only way we're getting standalone DLC stages is if stages like Pac-Maze and Poke Floats are brought back.

Want: 50%
I'm on the fence in regards to this one. More stages would be nice? But they'd have to be high quality.

DLC Echoes: Shadows of Smash
Chance: 40%
Slightly less than a second Fighter's Pass, but still because Echoes take less time to develop than unique fighters, and some peoples' most wanteds are Echoes.

Want: 50%
Again, I'm on the fence. Some characters I WOULD like would work best as Echoes, but I'd much rather prefer unique fighters.

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

With the Dragon Quest Heroes proving that Franchises can be centralised around Japan and still get into Smash (Plus Touhou getting an official release on the Switch anyway, blowing THAT barrier away too if it ever existed), Reimu probably needs a rerate.

 

[Ultomato]

Fighter Pass 2, Electric Boogaloo

Chance: 33,33%
Sakurai said he doesn't like the concept of a fighter pass, because he's selling something to people who "don't know what they're buying".
Off course, his say isn't the final say. Nintendo sees very clearly how much money they could make from more DLC and to be fair, Sakurai would probably love to make more characters (although it might cost him his health).
In the end I see a perfect threeway split between a. A fighter pass, b. Loose DLC characters, c. No new DLC.

Want: 100%
More characters! More speculation! #Fawfulinsmash! Take my money Nintendo!!!!?


What is this place?

Chance: 70%
Honestly I base this solely on the fact they did the same thing in smash 4. There are still plenty of old stages people have been screaming they want in (looking at you, Pokefloats!) and I just dont see any reason not to do it. Only thing I can think of is Nintendo going "There's already so many stages who the hell would pay for even more!?".

Want: 40%
"There's already so many stages who the hell would pay for even more!?"
Problem here is that they're 99% certainly all going to be returning stages, not new. Not that I wouldnt like the old stages back, I Just don't like getting my hopes uo for naught.


Spidermanpointing.png

Chance: 10%
This isn't very likely because Echoes, in the first place, were created to be able to add new characters without too much work. I don't see Sakurai selling that as DLC, that just seems like a base game only thing. There's also the Idea they could have that "you can't sell Them characters they already have!"

Want: 100%
Funky Kong. Wigglytuff. Dry Bowser. Impa. Hilda. Gen2 Pokémon trainer. Dixie Kong. Protoman. Grovyle. Hades. Ms Pacman. Celica. Dunban. Octoling. Wizpig. Infernape.

Noms: Rundas x5. Medabots rep x5

 

[3BitSaurus]

Fighters Pass 2

Chance: 20%
While Smash has been breaking records all around and selling like hotcakes, I don't think we're getting any more fighters beyond this. Even in the event that we do, it may not be in the form of a pack, like this one. People often point to Splatoon, Mario Tennis and Mario Kart to say "But Nintendo is learning to support their games in the long run! There's no way they wouldn't do that for Smash!", but the problem is that these are all games made by different teams with different game design visions. Yeah, it's possible, but don't count your chickens before they hatch.

Want: 90%
The only reason this isn't a 100% is because unless we get the possibilities of Spirits and Asist Trophies being promoted (unlikely imo), most characters in subsequent DLC would probably still be third parties. If somehow we could get Spirits, however, several characters like Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, Elma, Paper Mario and others would suddenly find themselves back on the run again, which is an interesting prospect.

Stages outside the Fighters Pass

Chance: 30%
I honestly think this is unlikely, considering most standalone stages in 3DS or Wii U were old stages. So unless we get stuff like Planet Zebes, Sector Z, Pac-Maze or Poké Floats, I wouldn't really count on it.

Want: 60%
Not a priority of mine, but if it happened somehow, I'd be okay with it, even for stages that I think don't make much of a difference, like some of the missing N64 ones. If we somehow got all-new stages, that would be kinda neat, I won't lie.

Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 20%
While they take less time to develop compared to original characters, I don't think Sakurai is willing to spend post-launch development time on them, even if they were sold at a lesser price and didn't have any extra content (stages, music, Spirits) with them.

Want: 75%
This would be a great shot for some of my wants, especially if Spirits/ATs were back on the speculation game. Octoling, Shadow, Proto Man, Impa... there's quite a few possibilities and, judging by the fanbase, there are enough people who would pay for it.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x 10

 

[chocolatejr9]

I edited my original post. Does it work now?

 

[Troykv]

Fighter Pass 2: The Electric Boogaloo (?)

Chance: 40%

The chance of a FP2 happening depends of mainly two things: the life span of Switch and Sakurai's opinion. With what looks like a bright future for the system; it depends un Sakurai this. The DLC will be a success; not doubt of that.

Want: 100%

More characters are always nice! I don't have any possible character that I would dislike to see in the game; so I'm open to everything!

DLC Stages

Chance: 25%

It would happen; SMK Stage was a thing... But I don't know; I have my doubts; after all se have all the popular Smash Legacy Stages except Poker Floats.

Want: 60%

It would be fun; I don't know what to expect xD

Echo Fighter as DLC

Chance: 30%

We don't have any particular reasons to expect it; but it can happen because of the fact people actually like it.

Want: 100%

Sure why not? More characters are always exciting! I'm open to any wild ideas :3

_______

Predictions

Monster Hunter: 23.4%
Morrigan: 4.6%

Nominations:

Micaiah x15

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Second Fighters Pass
Chance: 50%. Ultimate broke shattering records in sales for Nintendo, outselling Brawl, the previous King of sales, to be the best selling game in the series. It would certainly make financial sense. With BOTW 2, they stated they wanted to make a sequel because there was too much DLC to fit in the game. But for Smash, it seems they already worked really hard to bring back every Veteran and as many past stages as possible, so it would make much more sense to have as much DLC as possible rather than start from scratch in a new game where they would have to make cuts.
Want: 100%. With all the fighters in the fighter's pass requiring Spirit boards and their own stages, likely being unrepresented 3rd Parties, I would love a 2nd pass focusing on characters outside of these parameters. Plus, since this is almost certainly going to be the last game in the series to bring back every veteran, I really want as much as possible for this game rather than waiting for the next. Of course, a lot of this depends on the actual characters in the Pass.

Extra Stages Beyond the Fighters Pass
Chance: 45%. I don't think there are many spots left for stages, but it has been done before in Smash 4's DLC. It mainly comes down to the menu UI, but they have been shown to be willing to bend that in the past.
Want: 80%. I certainly wouldn't mind, there are still a lot of series that could use new ones, but it's not as much as a priority as characters for me. There are already so many stages in the game, so I wouldn't really see myself needing to buy them for anything other than Completionist purposes.

Echo Fighters as DLC
Chance: 50%. Sakurai said there would be no echos as part of the Fighter's Pass, but he never said anything about DLC in general. Echoes take less work, so it would be a way to add as many characters to Ultimate without devoting too much development time.
Want: 100%. There are a lot of echoes that could still be added, even of characters that could potentially be added in the Fighter's Pass. I would certainly love this, but it would depend a lot on which echos and how they are implemented.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Second Fighters Pass
Chance: 50%. Ultimate broke shattering records in sales for Nintendo, outselling Brawl, the previous King of sales, to be the best selling game in the series. It would certainly make financial sense.
Want: 100%. With all the fighters in the fighter's pass requiring Spirit boards and their own stages, likely being unrepresented 3rd Parties, I would love a 2nd pass focusing on characters outside of these parameters. Plus, since this is almost certainly going to be the last game in the series to bring back every veteran, I really want as much as possible for this game rather than waiting for the next. Of course, a lot of this depends on the actual characters in the Pass.

Extra Stages Beyond the Fighters Pass
Chance: 45%. I don't think there are many spots left for stages, but it has been done before in Smash 4's DLC.
Want: 75%. I certainly wouldn't mind, there are still a lot of series that could use new ones, but it's not as much as a priority as characters for me.

Echo Fighters as DLC
Chance: 50%. Sakurai said there would be no echos as part of the Fighter's Pass, but he never said anything about DLC in general.
Want: 100%. There are a lot of echoes that could still be added, even of characters that could potentially be added in the Fighter's Pass. I would certainly love this, but it would depend a lot on which echos and how they are implemented.

Just a reminder that there is a two sentences per score requirement. Glad to see a new face ^_^.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I edited my original post. Does it work now?

Yes

 

[Mushroomguy12]

Just a reminder that there is a two sentences per score requirement. Glad to see a new face ^_^.

Two sentence minimum or maximum?

Edit: Never mind, figured out it was minimum.

 

[StormC]

Fighter Pass Round 2

Chance: 10%. Nothing is impossible, but Nintendo is pretty conservative with paid DLC, rarely lasting more than a year, and this Fighters Pass is just called the "Fighters Pass," not season 2 or anything like that. As of February 2020, Sakurai will have been working on Smash, more-or-less nonstop, for 8 years. I really don't think this is in the cards. People just assume it'll happen because Ultimate sold a ton, but if Mario Kart 8 DX sold even more and saw zero DLC, I'm not optimistic. You can't really compare it to Splatoon 2 either which basically has a GAAS-like setup.

Want: 70%. I'm not convinced a second Pass would have any of the characters I would actually want to see, and I'm not sure how I feel about dropping another 20-25 bucks on DLC, even if it's Smash. I'm also pretty tired and worn out from character speculation. But it's still hard to say no to more fighters. Just please for the love of god put Dixie Kong on it.

More Stages

Chance: 5%. The stage select screen strikes me as very deliberate; they left enough spaces for the Fighters Pass stages and an extra spot for custom stage toggling. While Smash 4 did get some random stages here and there, overall the DLC for that game feels less planned out compared to Ultimate. The decision to put characters and stages together on the Pass makes me think that is their plan for characters and stages, and nothing else.

Want: 100%. Give me all the stages. My only real disappointment with Ultimate is the low stage count. I'll take each and every stage you give me. Especially a non-jungle Donkey Kong stage.

Echo Fighters

Chance: 10%. Again, nothing is impossible, but I'm reminded of how Sakurai described Dark Pit and Lucina as "desserts." He sees them as bonuses to add in with extra development time and resources, not really a whole character onto themselves. The fact that he specified the Fighters Pass wouldn't have Echo Fighters makes me think he considers them second-rate and not really worth selling. You would also have a hard time approximating their price; they certainly wouldn't be sold for free considering they charge for the Mii costumes, but they aren't worth a full fighter price either. I just don't see them bothering.

Want: 90%. More Echo DLC would be pretty great, although I don't think I would see any of the characters I want. It would be a relatively easy way to win over some fans, but I'm not that fussed either.

 

[-crump-]

Fighter Pass 2: Electric Boogaloo
Chance: 17%
I really doubt Sakurai will want to continue adding new characters after the current Fighter Pass comes to an end. Yes, there are open spaces, and yes, the game sold tremendously well, but what Sakurai said recently about his thoughts on DLC in general makes me think he’ll want to throw in the towel come February.

Want: 100%
Of course I want even more characters in Smash Ultimate, are you kidding me? New reveals and speculation are incredibly fun to witness, and I’d love for it to go on as long as possible.

More Stages
Chance: 5%
The way the stage select screen is layed out makes me think we’re getting exactly the number we were promised (5 stages for all 5 characters). There is a weird extra spot at the end there, but that’s for the Menu in My Music. There’s always the “EXTRA STAGES” button from Smash 4, but... ew. No. Don’t bring that back.

Want: 99%
Again, more Smash content is more Smash content. Inject it into my veins.
(I care slightly less about this because stage reveals/speculation isn’t nearly as hype as characters, but I still want it very much)

Extra Echo Fighters
Chance: 19%
I would say that additional Echo Fighters are sliiiiightly more likely than full on new characters after the pass ends, but again... I don’t think Sakurai is particularly interested in doing more after February 2020, and I can’t say I blame him.

Want: 50%
Hello, you happen to be talking to the one guy on Earth who actually stacks his Echo Fighters on the CSS (it looks better that way, fight me). Honestly, Echo Fighters aren’t something I’m particularly interested in; often they feel extraneous and only exist to bloat the already massive roster, and in worst cases they ruin the chances for an actually unique moveset in the future (sorry Dark Samus). I would still probably buy them because I’m a junkie for Smash DLC, but... meh.

 

[Sid-cada]

2nd Fighter Pass

Chance - 20% - Sakurai is not the type of man to milk a franchise. While Sakurai might not want to do a second, this game is a money maker fairly early in the Console's life cycle. Nintendo might presure him to take another swing, but right now I don't see it.

Want - 100% - Well, it's more characters. It's another chance for characters people want. What's not to like?


More Stages

Chance - 2.5% - Outside of the Fighter Pass ones, I don't see us getting any more. The majority of the others are simply unable to be implemented, due to either lost assests, being an upword scroller (and therefore unpopular), not working with stage morph, being replaced with an updated version, etc. I don't see independent stages either. While there is a small chance of a surprise, I don't see it.

Want - 75% - Not as hype-worthy as a character, but who can say no to more? It'll be interesting, that's for sure.

Extra Echos

Chance - 1.5% - While I can see one being potentially bundled with a character on release, selling them separately does not seem like it would happen. I think Sakurai would see this as too much of a cash-grab to implement; they are essentially extra credit characters when there is extra time. With DLC giving them just the right amount of time, I don't see them implementing this.

Want - 50% - I don't care at all about echos. I'll just leave them be.


Nominations

Cadence X5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Fighters Pass 2

Chance: 50%

I'm split on this one. Sakurai doesn't seem to be one to drag out dlc for too long, and if you look at the dlc for Smash 4 and Ultimate, the timeline is almost exact (Both games came out during holiday season and the dlc ends in February of the following year). However, if Nintendo wants the Switch to last 8 or so years as they have stated, additional dlc for Smash Ultimate makes sense as this is Sakurai's magnum opus, the ultimate Smash. It would make sense to just add onto it instead of making another Smash game in like 6 years. Ultimate is going to last for a long time, and honestly what could Sakurai do to follow up on this game any time soon?

Want: 100%

Anymore Smash content is good with me. More chances for my favorite characters to appear.


Stages Outside of Fighters Pass

Chance: 20%

I feel that it's possible, but unlikely. It seems like that unlike Smash 4, they are focusing on adding new modes and features rather than things like more stages, though admittedly we are still early in the fighters pass and we still have no clue what is going to come in the same updates as the next 4 fighters. But then there is the fact that the stage selection screen seems designed in a specific way, with an extra slot for custom stage toggling. Overall, my gut feeling says we most likely won't get any additional stages.

Want: 100%

Again, more Smash content for the win. Plus they could bring back older stages like Pac Maze and Rainbow Road. No reason not to bring them back.


Echo Fighter DLC

Chance: 50%

This is another one I'm conflicted about. It is easier to make echo fighters and it would be a convenient, quick way to make money. However, I feel like they might prioritize new characters if they were going to make a new fighters pass (which is a 50/50 in itself). There are some popular characters that could fit right into the echo fighter position like Dixie Kong, Black Knight, etc. But would those sell as well as brand new characters even at a lower cost? I'm honestly not sure. This is going to either happen, or not happen.

Want: 60%

If they only wanted to make an echo pass and be done with the dlc right there, I'll be alright with it. But I would much rather prefer brand new, unique characters. Plus there aren't many characters I want that would serve well as echo fighters, and characters I want like Shadow would be much better off as a unique character.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

It's been a while.

Second fighter pass:
Chance- 95%
Feel free to call me crazy, but those 21 remaining character IDs and 12 remaining WoL character slots don't seem like they're gonna be "future-proofing." Especially when they could very easily just add those empty slots in later if they needed, and especially when the same programmers did this same thing in smash 4. Not to mention that only doing 1 round of DLC with the best selling game in the franchise by far is basically a waste of money. They can literally print money by releasing DLC for this game, why stop with only 5 characters? Especially since we got so few newcomers in the base game.

Want- 100%
More characters is always a good thing in my book. Even if none of the characters I wanted got in, more characters to mess around with is always fun! As someone who plays Random more than any other character, more characters in the roster is technically a buff.

Stages outside of fighter pass:
Chance- 15%
I don't think it's entirely out of the question, but I think 5 stages is all we're going to get. When we get a second fighter pass, I don't think it'll have stages with it. There are some missing stages that people really want back, (pokefloats is the only one I care about) but all of them have very valid reasons for not being in, and DLC won't fix that I'm afraid. The only way we'd get more stages is if we got more characters who needed a stage.

Want- 69%
More stages are always fun, but unless they have a fun hazardless variant (and by fun I mean fair, like Mementos barely is) then it will only really affect me for the one day I play on it. That, and the FD/BF versions. Judging BK and Hero's stages, they'll probably be fair with hazards off? So if that trend follows suit, any stages would be nice! Just more unique platform layouts please!

Echo fighter DLC:
Chance- 65%
They introduced echo fighters as a way to make Lucina and Dark Pit likeable additions, and then only made like 4 more of them? To me it seems insane to not just add like 20 echo fighters, but Nintendo is known to make some dumb decisions. I think we'll almost assuredly see a few echo fighters. (My personal theory is that they'll replace stages in the second fighter pass, so it's a character/echo/music instead of character/stage/music.)

Want- 99%
I would've put this at 100%, but it's lower because I'm worried we'll get more Daisys and Richters... If the echos are different in gameplay at all, like Chrom/Lucina/Dark Pit/Dark Samus, then I would LOVE more echo fighters. They add so much variety and nuance to character selection with barely any effort on the dev team's part. Not to mention, more characters that people want to see in smash.

Just don't make them as boring as Daisy, please...

I'm not gonna use my noms for today yet because I can't seem to find the list of noms, I'll post again later with my noms for today if that's okay? (also can someone help me find the current list please I'm incompetent)

 

[Nemuresu]

Second Fighters Pass:
Chance: 10%-I'm not optimistic after what was revealed in Sakurai's book. Granted, since a lot of fighting games are starting to do more than one DLC season (FighterZ, Tekken 7, KOF XIV, and even MK11 may possibly have more than one because there's some characters in the datamine that won't be in this pass), so maybe I'm just not being optimistic about it.
Want: 80%-While I'd prefer to first wait to see the last two characters, I'm quite optimistic they're going to be nice characters to see in Smash. And frankly, adding more people to the roster is good in general (barring a few guys that I actively don't want to see in the game).

Stages outside of the Pass:
Chance: 20%-I'm confident we'll see one stage outside of the Pass, since the SSS still has one empty spot if all five stages are added. But more than that? Not as likely to me.
Want: 50%-Pretty neutral about stages. I mean, the only stage that I have a negative opinion of is 75m, and that's thanks to the horribly hard Spirit matches (Pauline and Donkey Kong and Lady, to be more specific).

Echo Fighters as DLC:
Chance: 5%-Don't know why, but I just don't see this happening. I know this can easily work as a free (or at least, cheap) DLC, but all we've seen in this game and the last has been unique-characters. Plus, I've seen the characters people vote for in the Echo Fighter thread, and I'm just not convinced of any of them working as clones.
Want: 0%-I sure as hell wouldn't pay money on clones. But even then, I just don't find the appeal on adding more clones outside of aesthetics. And barring a few characters like Black Shadow and Impa, I don't see what characters can work out in a deal like that.

Predictions (not accustomed to this, but there's frankly not that many things I'm interested in nominating now):
Hunter: 35% (I feel like some people are going to advocate in their favour)
Morrigan: 2.70%

 

[GoodGrief741]

A lot of you didn't get their noms counted. It's a common occurrence when there's a lot of things to rate. Just be careful with the noms purge.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Steve/Leon S. Kennedy/Jill Valentine/Resident Evil rep pre-Concept: Second Fighter Pass/Concept: Stages outside the Fighter Pass/Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC

Heavy (Team Fortress) x136
Crono x135
Kyle Hyde x135
Kamek x129
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117
Rundas x110

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Ninten x95
Terry Bogard x95
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x90
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Specter Knight x74
Velvet Crowe x70
Adeleine (Kirby) x70
Jin Kazama x70
X (Mega Man) x68
Gene (God Hand) x65
Blaze the Cat x56
Captain Rainbow x52
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x50
Decidueye x47
[Rerate] Micaiah x45
Brian (Quest 64) x42
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: More Bosses x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Gooey (Kirby) x34
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Earthworm Jim x27
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x25
Concept: Another western character x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Kyo Kusanagi x5
Concept: Medabots rep x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

That's a long tag.

The new top seven consists of Heavy, Crono, Kyle Hyde, Kamek, Ellie, Saber, and Rundas.

Captain Rainbow bursts past 50 noms.

The concepts Dragalia Lost rep and Another western character reach 25 noms.

Today's new nominees are Kyo Kusanagi and Concept: Medabots rep, both with 5 noms.

Calcs will probably come tonight.

It's been a while.

Second fighter pass:
Chance- 95%
Feel free to call me crazy, but those 21 remaining character IDs and 12 remaining WoL character slots don't seem like they're gonna be "future-proofing." Especially when they could very easily just add those empty slots in later if they needed, and especially when the same programmers did this same thing in smash 4. Not to mention that only doing 1 round of DLC with the best selling game in the franchise by far is basically a waste of money. They can literally print money by releasing DLC for this game, why stop with only 5 characters? Especially since we got so few newcomers in the base game.

Want- 100%
More characters is always a good thing in my book. Even if none of the characters I wanted got in, more characters to mess around with is always fun! As someone who plays Random more than any other character, more characters in the roster is technically a buff.

Stages outside of fighter pass:
Chance- 15%
I don't think it's entirely out of the question, but I think 5 stages is all we're going to get. When we get a second fighter pass, I don't think it'll have stages with it. There are some missing stages that people really want back, (pokefloats is the only one I care about) but all of them have very valid reasons for not being in, and DLC won't fix that I'm afraid. The only way we'd get more stages is if we got more characters who needed a stage.

Want- 69%
More stages are always fun, but unless they have a fun hazardless variant (and by fun I mean fair, like Mementos barely is) then it will only really affect me for the one day I play on it. That, and the FD/BF versions. Judging BK and Hero's stages, they'll probably be fair with hazards off? So if that trend follows suit, any stages would be nice! Just more unique platform layouts please!

Echo fighter DLC:
Chance- 65%
They introduced echo fighters as a way to make Lucina and Dark Pit likeable additions, and then only made like 4 more of them? To me it seems insane to not just add like 20 echo fighters, but Nintendo is known to make some dumb decisions. I think we'll almost assuredly see a few echo fighters. (My personal theory is that they'll replace stages in the second fighter pass, so it's a character/echo/music instead of character/stage/music.)

Want- 99%
I would've put this at 100%, but it's lower because I'm worried we'll get more Daisys and Richters... If the echos are different in gameplay at all, like Chrom/Lucina/Dark Pit/Dark Samus, then I would LOVE more echo fighters. They add so much variety and nuance to character selection with barely any effort on the dev team's part. Not to mention, more characters that people want to see in smash.

Just don't make them as boring as Daisy, please...

I'm not gonna use my noms for today yet because I can't seem to find the list of noms, I'll post again later with my noms for today if that's okay? (also can someone help me find the current list please I'm incompetent)

Hey, long time no see! The nominations are in the post above.

Also, since you left I have calculated scores and you won a prediction so you have 5 extra nominations to use whenever you please.

 

[PokéfreakofBACON]

Hey, long time no see! The nominations are in the post above.

Also, since you left I have calculated scores and you won a prediction so you have 5 extra nominations to use whenever you please.

Thanks! I'd like to use all 10 of them on nominating Grookey's final evolution then

 

[Nquoid]

Second Fighters Pass:
Chance 25%
Want 70%

I think based on Sakurai's previous comments about his distaste for DLC, he might push back against doing a second pass. The only things I can see changing that are; a) the DLC selling stupidly well, like 50% of all Smash Ultimate owners buy at least one character or b) the next Smash is so far away that Nintendo wants to extend this games lifecycle for longer. But yeah, Sakurai has been working on a Smash game ever since he finished Kid Icarus Uprising, I doubt he wants to spend another year catering to our confusing wishes

But want? There are so many assist trophies to upgrade, franchises not represented and characters just plain missing from the base game that would make excellent additions. And that's just if we assume 1st party. But this game has satisfied so many most wanteds for me, that I'm not sure my second five or third five most wanted can match stuff like Banjo, Ridley and K Krool.

Extra Stages:
Chance 50%
Want 50%

Last time most of the DLC stages were old levels weren't they? And I think almost every left out has a solid reason to not be in the game. Pac-Maze and Pokefloats would be awesome to see. But if we saw brand new stages, I'm not sure. My mind still thinks that Banjo might drop with a Minecraft stage as well, but that might be just included with the pass.

I'm happy with all the stages we have so far. I cant think of any glaring omissions that need filling and with the fighters pass dlc stages, theres only gap to be filled. So I want that filled and then nothing more.

Echo fighters:
Chance 40%
Want: 70%

I think echo fighters are harder to make than mii costumes, but easier than new fighters. So that's why their chance is higher. But it's still developing and new models, it cuts time down but it's still probably not enough to make it worth it. Especially since the expectation would be that they should be cheaper. I think it's more likely to happen than fighters pass, but I dont think either is overly likely.

But man I would love to see Dixie or Shadow make it into the game. Those two feel like the easiest slam dunk echoes out there. But I do find it amusing that changing the name to echoes and making them separate to the roster makes them so much more palatable than when they were clones. I doubt we'd be asking for a clone pass with any particular urgency, just because of the perception that they stole roster slots. Whereas now they feel like additional characters who weren't likely before.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Day over. Rate Monster Hunter and Morrigan (Darkstalkers) and predict Captain toad and Dixie Kong.

 

[Sari]

Some music to get in the mood for these characters:

Monster Hunter:

Spoiler

Morrigan:

Spoiler

Will post my ratings later.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Capcom's F-Zero

Chance: 0%
Morrigan getting in Smash? Please. There is rarely franchise so ignored by its maker. Morrigan has been kept alive by being in Capcom crossovers. They key word there being Capcom. Smash isn't a Capcom crossover, it's a Nintendo crossover with Capcom characters. It's Nintendo X Nintendo guest starring Capcom, not Nintendo X Capcom.

Add to that the fact that she has zero fanbase to speak of for Smash. The mainstream doesn't care about her. And while Darkstalkers is really great and there's a cult audience demanding its comeback, there's no real gaming impact or history to make Sakurai look at it for representation. There's so many Capcom characters with better chances I think it's likelier that Capcom will stop getting characters than Morrigan getting in.

Want: 0%
I love Darkstalkers and Morrigan is the best, but she really doesn't have a place in Smash. It would be like Isaac guest starring in Marvel vs. Capcom. I'll totally take a new Darkstalkers though. Please.

Capcom's Fire Emblem

Chance: 2%
I'm willing to admit the possibility of Monster Hunter getting in Smash down the line. It's Capcom's biggest game ever, popular in both sides of the globe (in somewhat different incarnations), and it was Monster Hunter (and Ace Attorney) what kept Capcom chugging during their **** years. But Rathalos got in base and man is that a way to absolutely diminish whatever impact a DLC fighter could have. Maybe Sakurai just thinks a boss is a better way to represent the franchise (I would agree). I don't see it.

Want: 40%
I much rather prefer Ace Attorney and Resident Evil (and other Capcom franchises that have less of a shot), but I'd be okay with it. I think it's earned its place and I have a couple friends who would be delighted.

Dixie prediction: 5%
Cap prediction: 2.82%

Nominations: Kyle Hydex5

 

[TillerManX]

Morrigan:0%
One problem I have with her is her huge cleavage. It does not feel suitable for smash. Also, she has no fanbase
Monster Hunter:40%
Rathalos is Monster Hunter representation, but it can still have a shot

 

[GoodGrief741]

One problem I have with her is her huge cleavage. It does not feel suitable for smash.

Samus says hi.

 

[TillerManX]

Zero Suit Samus does not show cleavage

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Monster hunter (from Monster hunter)
Chance: 2%
Rathalos in the base game already gives us some meaty Monster hunter representation. Makes adding the hunter on top of that as dlc a bit eyebrow-raising, no? Not to mention costume thory would screw them over royally.

Want: 0%
Competes with Leon, who belongs to the limited pool of tthird-parties I'm interested in seeing. The Monster Hunter games also don't really seem up my alley.

I want you to be my pizzaman
Chance: 0.1%
Darkstalkers is a series I know nothing but I've heard it's not really that huge or relevant, perhaps even kinda dead. Morrigan just seems very low on the priority table, especially as we already have the Street fighter boys as Capcom arcade fighter representation.

Want: 0%
Same reasoning as above. Tho I can't really give a judgement on Darkstalkers with how little I know about it.

Captain Toad: 2.95%
Dixie: 6.33%
Gene x5

 

[Sari]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 25%
Monster Hunter is one of Capcom's biggest franchises so I think there could easily be a rep. The main issue with this is that we already have Rathalos as a boss + assist trophy in Ultimate, so it might be odd for Nintendo/Sakurai to double dip with MH content when there is already a fairly big amount of it already in the game. Not to mention they still have the SSB4 Monster Hunter mii costume that they could just port over along with another Capcom rep's inclusion, like with what they did with the Sega mii costumes when Joker released. If we were to get another Capcom rep it'd probably be someone from a series that hasn't been represented in Smash yet.

Want: Abstain
Never really got into MH so I won't comment. Only thing I will say is that they'd be on the lower end of my want list since there are a lot of other Capcom reps I'd like to see.

-----

SOUL FIST! SOUL FIST! SOUL FIST! SOUL FIST! SOUL FIST!

Chance: 2%
There hasn't been a mainline Darkstalkers game in forever. That's not a good sign when Morrigan has to compete with more popular and relevant Capcom reps like Phoenix Wright or a RE rep. Yes she is in almost all of the Capcom VS titles but I don't think that'll be enough to get her into Smash when she has so much competition from Capcom alone.

Want: 5%
Like I said with MH, there are a ton of other Capcom characters I'd want to see first. If Capcom brought back her franchise that might make me more interested in her inclusion.

Captain Toad chance prediction: 7.13%
Dixie chance prediction: 13.06%

Nominations:
Heavy x5

 

[Ridrool64]

Capcom's Final Offerings

MH Chance: Eh... 30%. Even if you think a Capcom character is a lock because of Mii Costume theory, that's actually a death knell for MH, because they were a Smash 4 Mii Costume last I recall, and the only one IIRC that came from a loose series. Mii Costume theory, if it points to any Capcom character, points to RE or Wright. But since I don't believe it yet anyway, I can actually say I think they have a decent shot. Just, not too high given how things have a funny way of working out.

MH Want: 25%. Not a fan of Monster Hunter in general. That being said, it's an iconic series (at least in Japan recently, I think?) and it passes my minimum mark, so I wouldn't throw a hissy fit. Though honestly, just the Mii Costume back would be fine.

Morrigan Chance: She's got a problem where I can't think of a good reason for Darkstalkers to get a character before Resident Evil, Monster Hunter, Ace Attorney, or even Okami. All of them kick Darkstalkers in the behind in regards to fan demand or performance and notability, not to mention relevance (though I don't know if this is the case for Viewtiful Joe or Strider Hiryu). Thus, Morrigan gets a mere... 20%. It's barely possible, but I don't really know why she's on the table before them.

Morrigan Want: I have no familiarity with Darkstalkers, and I don't have enough with MvC to really count myself in on her. Based on what I can remember of her, she'd be cool but nothing more. 20%, maybe if I get myself refamiliarized with the character (in action, not just wikiskimming) it'll fluxuate more.

More Bosses x 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Second Fighter Pass/Concept: Stages outside the Fighter Pass/Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC pre-Morrigan Aensland/Monster Hunter

Heavy (Team Fortress) x146
Crono x140
Kyle Hyde x135
Kamek x129
Ellie (The Last of Us) x120
Saber (Fate) x117
Rundas x115

150 - 101

Protector (Etrian Odyssey) x105

100 - 51

Aloy x100
Concept: Valve rep x95
Boss: Kracko x95
Ninten x95
Terry Bogard x95
Cadence (Crypt of the Necrodancer) x95
Frogger x85
Noctis Lucis Caelum x80
Glover x80
9-Volt x80
Adeleine (Kirby) x75
Gene (God Hand) x75
Specter Knight x74
Velvet Crowe x70
Jin Kazama x70
X (Mega Man) x68
[Rerate] Micaiah x60
Blaze the Cat x56
Sunflower (Plants vs. Zombies) x55
Captain Rainbow x52
Papyrus x51

50 - 25

Decidueye x49
Brian (Quest 64) x42
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x40
Concept: More Bosses x40
Concept: DLC challenges x35
Gooey (Kirby) x34
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Qbby x30
Earthworm Jim x30
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x30
Farmer (Harvest Moon/Story of Seasons) x28
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Cooking Mama x25
Boss: Perfect Chaos x25
Concept: Another western character x25

Under 25

Reporter & Wrestler x20
Tora and Poppi x20
Johnny Silverhand x20
Concept: Spirits aren’t disconfirmations x18
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes fighter x18
King Boo x16
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Amaterasu x15
Black Shadow x13
Concept: Another joke character x13
[Rerate] Reimu Hakurei x13
Gex x12
Mike Jones x11
Marx (Kirby) x11
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Beat (Jet Set Radio) x10
Concept: Spectator Emotes x10
Concept: Lord Fredrik as an Echo Fighter of K. Rool x10
Concept: Grookey's final evolution x10
Concept: Medabots rep x10
Magolor x9
Toon Zelda x8
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Courier (Fallout) x5
Scorpion x5
Concept: Another literally who Level-5 Character who's popular in Japan, like Achilles or Mark Evans x5
Starman (Pro Wrestling) x5
Malzahar (League of Legends) x5
Concept: Master Chief Mii Costume x5
Worm (Worms) x5
Balloon Fighter x5
Tiz Arrior x5
[Rerate] Dovahkiin x5
Rash x5
Nightmare (Soul Calibur) x5
Concept: League of Legends rep x5
Kyo Kusanagi x5
Kratos x5
Lizalfos x4
Urbosa x3
Boss: Sans x2
Sub-Zero x2
Concept: Street Fighter Mii costumes x2
Stahl x1
Duster x1
Pappy Van Poodle x1
Dr. Eggman x1
Toon Zelda & Tetra x1
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x1

Sunflower and Micaiah cross the 50 nom mark. They are safe from the purge.

Today's new challengers are Grookey's final evolution (with 10 noms) and Kratos (with 5).

 

[Ornl]

Monster Hunter
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain
I know the good points. But Monster Hunter has some disadvantages:
- The series is already represented, I think Monster Hunter got stuck as an Assist Trophee, that Rathalos is already in the game isn't an open door, but a closed door. There is no reason for he/she to be in DLC while Rathalos is in the base game. It wouldn't be a surprise at the level of an Ultimate DLC.
- Capcom rep is too obvious IMO, costume theory is too obvious IMO, Capcom is already overrepresented in Ultimate (number of Fighters equal to Konami and Sega, most Assist Trophies and Spirit of all third-party companies).
- His/her rivals are Resident Evil rep and Phoenix Wright. And Lara Croft IMO (more iconic, more surprising as a 2nd Squenix rep non-expected, potential adventurer gameplay amost similar but more fun: no big sword but knife, bow, grappling hook, rope trap, climbing ax, flaming torch, blaze gasoline, artifacts, agility and sporty lightness... and emblematic but dispensable dual pistols).

Morrigan
Chance : 0% - Want : abstain
I don't know any particular advantages for her, having little weight compared to videgame women, Capcom and Smash Bros. There is already a Capcom fighting game rep in DLC, and a new Capcom fighting game rep in Ultimate.

Nomination : Lara Croft x5

 

[Icedragonadam]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 1%

Thing with Monster Hunter is that the monsters are the main draws of the franchise and it's represented well enough with that in Base Ultimate with Rathalos. MVCI is an exception IMO as the Capcom VS games aren't as reference heavy as Smash is.

Want: N/A

I never played any of the MH games, so I can't any stake into this.

Morrigan Aensland(Capcom's Captain Falcon)

Chance: 3%

She's not a very likely rep compared to the likes of a Resident Evil character or Dante. She's like Captain Falcon, more people know who she is than the series she comes from which hinders her. And besides, the series is on ice right now.

Want: 20%

Ehh she's not really on my radar TBH. I personally prefer the likes Lord Raptor, Jedah, B.B Hood etc.

Captain Toad Prediction: 0.25%
Dixie Kong Prediction: 0.31%

Nominate Velvet Crowe x5

 

[Neosonic97]

You've fainted.
Reward decreased by 2000z.
Returning to camp...
Chance: oof
Yeah, the Monster Hunter is pretty screwed. The entire argument hinges on not being represented in Smash already and, well, we got one of the series' mascots (The Rathalos is THE large monster, and probably the flagship monster of the entire series. There's a reason the plot-powered monster in Stories is a Rathalos!) as an Assist Trophy AND a Boss. Really, that's the big killer here: We already have Rathalos. Yeah, they're an assist trophy and a boss, but still.

Want: Abstain.
I'm haven't really got my feelings straight on this character. That's all I can really say.

The Capcom equivalent to Captain Falcon
Chance: oof
There are so many problems for Morrigan that there's just no way she's getting in. Capcom reps? We already have the Shotos and Mega Man. Relevancy? Darkstalkers is dead and Morrigan's only being helped up by being splashed into pretty much every Capcom crossover out there. To say nothing about the fact that Morrigan's design is a bit too risque for Smash (And given that Morrigan is a succubus, toning it down like they did for Samus wouldn't really mesh well with her character).

Want: NO
I have no history with Darkstalkers and being honest here, unless Darkstalkers actually DOES get revived, I'd prefer if we got other characters instead (Though Morrigan, along with Dimitri, is pretty much the face of Darkstalkers, so if Darkstalkers DID get a rep, it'd almost certainly be her). To say nothing about the myriad of other good Capcom reps out there (Phoenix Wright, A Resident Evil rep, Viewtiful Joe, Amaterasu, etc).

Noms: Reimu rerate x5

 

[frozolloyd]

The Hunter of Monsters:
Chance: 10 percent
Out of all the Capcom reps, this is the character that gets slept on the most. And to be fair, it is for a good reason. Being one of the Capcom series that have consistently supported Nintendo and is one of Capcom's biggest franchises, things looked good for this rep for a while. That is until Rathalos was shown off. In my opinion, if they wanted to add this character, they would have done it along side Rathalos in the base game, where it made the most sense. However, I give this character a little more credit because Capcom MIGHT have not added him to make more money by using him/her as DLC. Although I highly doubt it.
Want: 60 percent
I am not really attached to any of Capcom's remaining franchise, but to me, the sheer amount of weapons they could use for monster hunter would make a very interesting character.

The Klonoa of Capcom:
Chance: 1 percent
This one is a plain and simple one. Capcom doesn't seem to care about Morrigan at all and only seems to bring her back for Capcom specific crossovers. On top of that, Capcom has so many viable picks that are more popular and are still an alive franchise that I can see no reason why they would pick her over MH, Phoenix Wright or a RE rep. Even if she had a game being ported to the switch.
Want: 0 percent
I don't have a connection to her series and she doesn't look like she would be nearly interesting as the other 3 I mentioned.

Nom: Velvet Crowe x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Capcom rep is too obvious IMO

You used to say that about Banjo and look where we are now.

And Lara Croft IMO (more iconic, more surprising as a 2nd Squenix rep non-expected, potential adventurer gameplay amost similar but more fun: no big sword but knife, bow, grappling hook, rope trap, climbing ax, flaming torch, blaze gasoline, artifacts, agility and sporty lightness... and emblematic but dispensable dual pistols).

How are Lara Croft and Monster Hunter anywhere near to being in competition? They're different companies and like you say would play absolutely differently.

 

[Ornl]

No, I never said that Banjo was too obvious. Avoid ad hominem.

How are Lara Croft and Monster Hunter anywhere near to being in competition? They're different companies and like you say would play absolutely differently.

They are competing for me because I can't imagine them together as the last DLC, I find the bow and adventurous items wouldn't really bring different levels of fun.
I warn other readers who would like to react that this poll makes it possible to express my feeling, and a reaction to a feeling can be considered as a judgment. I don't want to debate, but only to participate in a poll.

 

[GoodGrief741]

No, I never said that Banjo was too obvious. Avoid ad hominem.

You did though, you said highly demanded characters didn't fit Reggie's 'unexpected' comment.

I don't want to debate

It is definitely encouraged to debate in this thread. People are bound to take exception to these kinds of statements.

 

[3BitSaurus]

Monster Hunter

Chance: 5%
Honestly, if it wasn't for Rathalos, they would be going toe-to-toe with Resident Evil and Ace Attorney right now for the most likely Capcom character to come next. Alas, there is base game content and that makes their chances take a massive drop, because licensing content and postponing it for DLC does not sound like something Sakurai would do (though, ironically, it kinda does sound like what their home company would do...).

Want: 25%
Frankly, Phoenix, Dante, Amaterasu and several others from Capcom would draw my interest first. But I won't deny that a case can be made for an interesting trap-based playstyle.

Morrigan Aensland

Chance: 1%
I'm not giving her a straight 0 unless she is flat out deconfirmed by someone at Capcom, but the reality is that she's unlikely. Even with Dante deconfirmed and the aforementioned Monster Hunter base game content, she would still have to go against Resident Evil and Ace Attorney - two franchises that are not only active and among Capcom's current top dogs, but are also highly requested (Phoenix Wright in particular). And then there's the other smaller Capcom reps that haven't been deconfirmed, like Viewtiful Joe, Amaterasu, Arthur... her chances are arguably slimmer than Klonoa's chance among Namco characters in my opinion, and that is saying something.

Want: 15%
I'm neutral in regards to wanting Morrigan. I think there are way better characters at Capcom (including all of those I have already mentioned), not to say anything about fighting game characters in general (like from Tekken, Soulcalibur, KOF), but I wouldn't be upset if she got in either.

Nominations: Kyo Kusanagi x5

 

[Ornl]

You did though, you said highly demanded characters didn't fit Reggie's 'unexpected' comment.

So it has nothing to do with my message. The intervention wasn't right, in addition to being an ad hominem feedback on a personal feeling.