Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Ryza from Atelier series.

Predict Grunty from the Banjo series.

Megadoomer

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Some songs to get into the Atelier mood:

Spoiler: Atelier Music

 

[Lionfranky]

Thicc Alchemist

Chance: 0%

Ryza is similar to Joker. While Ryza herself is pretty new, her series has been around since 1997. Despite that, Atelier is still a niche series. Atelier Ryza is a groundbreaking for Atelier series just like Persona 5 breaking into mainstream, but it's still nowhere close to Persona 5. Maybe, she has chance later, but definitely not in this pass.
Her developer pretty much deconfirmed her last year.
If they were under NDA, they wouldn't have said anything like this. FP2 was already decided back in 2019, so Ryza is pretty much out.
Even without deconfirmation, she faces strong competitor with strong legacy from Koei rep: Ryu Hayabusa who was also deconfirmed in similar manner.
If there is FP3 or more slot after FP2, her chance rises up but barely.

Want: 95%

Which is pretty shame... Ryza is really bright, charming and playful character. As for her game. it was surprisingly fun experience of playing Ryza 1. Story and character development were pretty spot on. I can see where criticism on side characters come from, but it wasn't too bad for me. I enjoyed combat more than that of DQ11. Ryza 2 improved further, but storyline focuses on Phi too much which I agree. But, I still enjoyed the game. Ryza is a staff user, so that's plus for me. She is not an anime swordsman. She can bring alchemy mechanic which she can use to cook up various potions and stuff. She also has many tools in her disposal. Ryza may share similar mechanic with Steve.... only with Steve's box being similar to Ryza's alchemy cauldron I would imagine. She can definitely bring something unique to the table.

Nom: Conker x 10

 

[DaUsername]

Abstain Haggar
Ryan prediction: 5%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Commander_Alph]

Abstain know nothing about Atelier

Noms: Zhao Yun x10

 

[AirMac1]

I’m gonna abstain, since I don’t know a thing about this character.

Prediction: 3%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep xMAX

 

[Perkilator]

Abstain.

Grunty: 5%

Noms: [Rerate] Crash Bandicoot ×5

 

[Sari]

Ryza

Chance: 0%
While the Atelier series has been going on for a very long time, the one which introduced Ryza released at the end of September 2019. We know from the Byleth presentation that FP2 was finalized by November 2019 at the latest, but I still believe that it was already decided on several months beforehand. For example when they announced more DLC at the start of September 2019, I think all of the FP2 names were already picked by then. Because of this, I think she may have missed the mark when it comes to timing. I doubt she'd get a pre-release sort of treatment which is usually just reserved for Fire Emblem characters.

Also she pretty much got deconfirmed in an interview last October, where the producer of her series said that they didn't think Ryza would be included with Nintendo's plans. Saying "yeah I'd like to see it happen" is one thing, but to basically say "I don't think she's happening" seems like she really isn't getting in. I know some may argue that he's just playing dumb, but with everything else going against her I just don't see Ryza happening.

Want: Abstain
Never got into the Atelier series so I won't give a score. When it comes to Koei Tecmo reps however, I'd prefer Hayabusa or probably even someone from Dead or Alive.

-----

Grunty chance prediction: 0.5%

Nominations:
Conker x10

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Alrighty.

ThICc THiGhTS SAVe LiVes.

Chance: 0%

Ryza is a character from the Atelier series. Starting in 1997 for the Playstation, it used to be basically niche-japan only franchise until the PS2 era. And honestly if we were rating this franchise back in the Smash 4 days, no one would entertain the idea at all.

The series is similar to the likes of Final Fantasy and Fire Emblem, in that certain games take place in their isolated worlds, sometimes if said entry is successful, it becomes it's own sub series, think compilation of FF7, but this time applying to other games like 4 and 6 and being part of the main series instead of Spin-Offs. There's Dusk, Arland, and in Ryza's case, Secret, the most recent Sub-series so far.

Atelier games are all about being Alchemy RPGs, all about using alchemy in order to gain stuff and become stronger. The series has been absurdly niche for years, until recently with Ryza's games, with her debut game being the best selling one so far. (though it didn't even sold a million)

Honestly though, i don't see why we would rate this character any higher than a 10%. Her series has always been niche as hell as the sales demonstrate, and outside of a vocal group of people, she really is not requested by the large majority of Smash fans like Banjo, and isn't a super popular character in the larger gaming sphere like Sephiroth, nor seems to be a prime choice for "shilling" like Our First Party choices, since most Third Parties tend to be much older.

Sure, Joker was less than 2 years old when he was announced, but by Persona 4 the series was already showing larger appeal than Atelier ever did, even after Ryza's game, and by Persona 5 the series literally became mainstream. There's also the fact that her first game released in 2019, Fighter Pass 2 was already decided by then (STEVE TOOK 5 YEARS) so that is another nail in the coffin.

Compared to more popular characters like Crash, or characters with bigger historical significance like Adol, she doesn't seem to be a main priority for Nintendo should they chose a newcomer. Not everyone can be Joker, sorry.

and lastly, there's no reason for me to believe she would be chosen over Tecmo's default face, Ryu Hayabusa, a character that is far more seniority and much more popular in the larger gaming sphere, and has bigger presence in Smash discussion as well, hell i don't think she would be chosen over Kasumi (DOA's main character that has been featued in cameos and crossovers occasionally) Ayane (DOA's breakout star that in some aspects has overshadowed Kasumi) or a Warriors character.

...............notice how i haven't mentioned that she was discomfirmed by her own developers. That is a death sentence right there and there. Admitedly, if it wasn't by that, i would have given her a..........1% chance, but basically that killed her. Yes i know Hayabusa has been discomfirmed as well, don't torture me.

Hell, by the time Smash 6 comes around, i think she will just be forgotten. I mentioned that the Atelier changes characters after some games, and so i predict that Ryza will suffer the same fate as Gen 3 and 5 Pokémon, at most she will be remembered as Rule34 bait unfortunately, as a Road to El Dorado fan, my apologies.

Want: 0%

and i'm okay with her not being chosen for Smash. The fact that she was basically competition for Ryu Hayabusa (a character that i actually wanted and stands a chance.....................well okay, stood a chance) meant that i was already against her. But once looking into her franchise, yeah i want her even less.

I hate how there are people that hate the idea of Smash being faithful to its Nintendo roots because it would mean "Bottom of the Barrel" Choices, and then we rate characters like this, which from a outisder's perspective, comes across as Niche Waifubait, no thanks. Im sure the series is more than that, but honestly it's hard to get excited for stuff like this. Hard Pass.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Smashboards kept crashing for me, I hope this gets up in time for the 2 hr mark.

Mike Haggar

2% Chance

Capcom competition is fierce. That alone is enough to hurt Haggar's election chances. Chun Li is huge and has to be brought up in particular. While Final Fight is not exactly a Street Fighter game, it is SF adjacent and the two series often overlap. As such, Chun Li represents strong competition within that same niche of Capcom. Dante and Phoenix Wright also come to mind as plausible Capcom reps that are strong competition. Heck, if you delve into niche stuff, characters like Amaterasu could also be seen as a roadblock. And this is without touching on the questions of if we are getting a capcom character period.

It also does not help that Final Fight is dead and has been for a while. While a reboot has been leaked, the franchise has been dead outside of Street Fighter and MvC cameos for a long time, even longer if one blocks Streetwise out of your minds. Essentially, I think Haggar operates in the same kind of niche that someone like Chrono would: a relatively popular SNES era character that has mountains of competition.

100% Want
...and much like Chrono, I would love for this to happen as unlikely as it is. Final Fight is cool. I like the soundtrack and 2d beat em ups are fun. Haggar also would be cool to me because, well, in my heart he kind of belongs. Final Fight just feels like it fits into the whole Smash world so well, it has a nice niche in Nintendo history. I would love Haggar, as unlikely as he is.

Rean Schwarzer x 10

 

[BowserKing]

Ryza

Chance: 5%. Her chance appears to be between low and mixed due to the second fighter’s pass having two slots left and while her franchise has been around for a while, she was more recently added. But that did not stop Byleth from getting in the first fighter’s pass, and if Joker and Cloud could get in, despite them not appearing in earlier games of Persona and Final Fantasy, then Ryza could have a Chance a spirit well.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as however, and I don’t think we have an alchemist in Smash yet, so she would bring something new to Smash. Overall, she would make a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Grunty: 0.5

Noms: 5 for Garchomp

 

[Cutie Gwen]

I wonder how many people will think she's called Ree-za and not Rye-za

Chance: 1% I'm gonna start this out by addressing the whole official dev disconfirmation by interview. It means literally nothing, why would anyone break NDA by saying "Oh yeah sure my character's in the game but hasn't been announced yet"? The answer is that there is no reason, it's a ****ty question that has no value in the world of journalism beyond getting Smash fans to click on articles about games that have no current relation to Smash. That being said, now on to stuff that actually DOES matter. The Atelier series is a small series that manages to do well despite low sales due to low budgets and dedicated fans, this hasn't mattered too much in the past, but it can still be an issue I feel, especially as Koei have both Ninja Gaiden and Dynasty Warriors, one having more popularity among Smash fans and the other being Koei's big money maker

Want: 30% I'm judging Ryza solely on mechanics and by my shallow surface level understanding of the Atalier series I can basically see Steve but with alchemy, so instead of making blocks, you'd be making potions. This does lead to a character who focuses on buffs and debuffs which I think is fairly interesting even if I'd much rather have SMT take this mechanic on. Also, fun fact, youtuber Clemps just uploaded his Ryza 2 review as of writing the want section, great timing RTC thread.

Junpei x10

 

[Pillow]

Ryza
Chance - 1%
I'll always ignore stuff like developer interviews in rating these characters, but even then her chances aren't great. She faces a lot of competition in the JRPG Genre. Tales, YS, Nier...Atelier Ryza is basically pretty far down on the list.

Want - 50%
I've never played her games, but she looks cute and we don't have many staff wielders in the game. I'd be basically okay with her, but overall unexcited.

Noms:
xMax Miku

 

[Louie G.]

RYZA

CHANCE - 1%
I feel like there's probably not a lot I can add to this that people haven't already acknowledged. A developer interview cast a pretty damning light on her odds already, but her shortcomings aren't limited to that. Atelier is a fairly small, fairly niche series in the grand scheme of things and while I'm very open to Smash shedding light on lesser celebrated franchises, Atelier falls pretty drastically short of any major competition. Within Koei Tecmo, I see no reason why they would go for Ryza over Hayabusa or a Dynasty Warriors character. As far as JRPGs go, Atelier fails to reach the heights of its competition like Tales, and I feel like that's a market that Smash has all but dried out this DLC cycle as is (I'm not expecting much more). Maybe none of these directly would destroy Ryza's odds, but putting her entire situation into perspective I find it hard to justify expecting her over much more viable competition.

WANT - ABSTAIN
No strong feelings. From what I do know she could probably end up being fairly unique, but I know little about the series. By default I'd say I don't want her at all but I always feel bad doing that for characters where I really don't know anything else about them aside from bits and pieces I've picked up on through Smash speculation.

Grunty - 0.45%

TAILS x10

 

[fogbadge]

abstain. i dont know this one at all. looking forward to tomorrow though. noms todd snap x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining because I likely won't have time to do a good enough write up

Predictions:
Grunty - .40%

Noms:
Riptor x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Ryza

Chance: 1%

I did not want to completely write Ryza off from the get go. Atelier is a long-running franchise with some Nintendo history and has found a niche for itself. But I do agree with the majority that I can't see why this would be chosen. It seems like quite a niche I.P and even after 22 main games the series has only shipped 4+ million units worldwide. The titles were also only available in Japan until recent years so that's another mark against it.

But what really hurts Ryza's chances in particular, and I didn't know this until Sari pointed it out, but apparently Ryza was only introduced to the series a couple months before the pass was finalized. So even if Nintendo wanted a character from this series, I'd imagine they were probably looking at other established candidates. And of course this is Koei Tecmo we are talking about. Even if Hayabusa's chances are toast there is still Dynasty Warriors which is a way more prominent series.

Oh yeah, and the developer interview that everyone else mentioned does hurt her chances, although I don't think it's quite as damming as something like the Doomguy interview. But it certainly doesn't help.

Want: Abstain

Haven't had the chance to try the games out. They seem charming but it's not something I'm super interested in and even though I've accepted that I'm not getting Hayabusa there is still Dynasty Warriors which I've grown a fondness for.

Prediction: Grunty - 3.50%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x15

 

[Golden Icarus]

Ryza
Chance: 0.1%
Despite some of the more surprising third party additions we've gotten, one thing that has consistently held true is that a third party company will almost always get their mascot added first and foremost. Mega Man was chosen as our first Capcom character, despite being relatively dormant at the time and both RE and SF being more successful IPs. Pac-Man was our Namco rep, instead of someone from the more relevant Tekken or Tales. We got Sonic for Sega, Snake for Konami, Terry for SNK, Cloud for SE...a third party company's first character is pretty much always the "obvious" choice. Now, there's a few that are debatable. We got Joker, even though Jack Frost is usually considered the mascot of Atlus. However, P5 was such a breakout title for Atlus that it's pretty justified. Plus, Jack Frost sits in the same weird category as someone like Slime or Moogle/Chocobo. It's kind of weird to choose a mostly generic NPC before a main protagonist. And aside from Joker, we also got Banjo, who is far from the biggest star that Microsoft had to offer. However, you can still justify it by seeing Banjo as a Rare rep, rather than a Microsoft rep, in which case he was definitely the strongest choice.

All this to say, if we do get a Koei Tecmo character, I am 99% sure that it would be Hayabusa. He's been around for years, has crossed over with tons of other franchises, and is easily the biggest Smash request as far as KT characters go. He is very clearly the mascot of that company, and despite some decent arguments to be made for DoA, Warriors, or maybe even Nioh, I really don't think that any of those series have characters who could hold a candle to Hayabusa. If we were to get someone from Atelier, I'm pretty certain that Hayabusa (and probably Kasumi and a Warriors character) would have to come first, and with only two slots left, I am definitely not expecting two KT characters...

Want: Abstain
I'm not really interested in the idea for a few reasons, but since I've never played the games I'll just abstain.

Grunty: 6.6%
Noms: Demi-Fiend x10

Question for the folks in charge of the thread: With E3 just around the corner and there being a very real possibility that we will end up finding out about the rest of the Fighters Pass, are there any special days planned leading up to that? I know that we've already done a day for "remaining FP2 character predictions," but with how much has changed since March, I was curious if we might want to do another day like that before E3.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Question for the folks in charge of the thread: With E3 just around the corner and there being a very real possibility that we will end up finding out about the rest of the Fighters Pass, are there any special days planned leading up to that? I know that we've already done a day for "remaining FP2 character predictions," but with how much has changed since March, I was curious if we might want to do another day like that before E3.

In terms of plans, there is nothing concrete. We have discussed doing a fixed schedule, but that would only be if people feel like there is a good reason to have one. If we did, it would be probably a week or two at most. I do think that at the bare minimum we will do a prediction day of whats left, but nothing is concrete yet. Stay tuned.

 

[NintenRob]

Given how close to the end we are, I don't think a fixed schedule is a good idea. People are likely to miss out on rating their characters.

Speaking of, might not be a bad idea putting a halt on nominating new characters. I highly doubt we'll get through the list as is. and if we do, maybe we can fit in some last minute popular ratings. Also wouldn't mind rating some concepts about the future of the smash series after Ultimate.


As for today, I know nothing about ryza, So I'll abstain since I have nothing to say.

Tomorrow will be fun though.

Prediction Grunty 0%

Nominate Carmen Sandiego x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Fighter Pass more like Thighter Pass amirite

Double zeroes. The devs said she isn't in Smash. Not just that she isn't in, but that they don't think Sakurai would even be interested. Ouch. Please send out hugs to the Atelier devs, they need the self-esteem boost.

This would still be a double zero rating even without the interview though. Atelier is just not iconic or demanded or popular or influential. The biggest breakout title it had is still niche as ****. It did crafting before everyone else, sure, but the way I see it, videogames didn't start using crafting because of Atelier, they started using crafting because of Minecraft. If you pioneered something that would have been popularized regardless of you doing it that takes away a lot of the prestige from it.

Not to mention, I think there's no way Ryza gets in over her fellow Tecmo Koei brethren. Hayabusa, alone, casts a tall shadow. But if you stack her against someone from Dead or Alive or Dynasty Warriors or even Nioh I think she falls short.

There's also that whole "her game came out barely before the Pass was finalized" deal but just read Sari's post, I don't want to be redundant.

As for want, I have played an Atelier or 2. I would describe them as "cozy" and while world-weary 21-year old me might appreciate that a lot, "just played Chrono Trigger" 9-year old me thought they were lame as ****. Plus I haven't played the one(s?) with Ryza so all I know about her is her design. It's... quite the design, but that doesn't change how I feel about her in Smash one way or the other.

Grunty prediction: 1.42%
Noms:

Spoiler: GoodGrief's dilemma

With two days left before the week ends, Todd is safe up there in second place. However this kinda puts me in an awkward position. There are two characters I'm hoping to nominate. E3 is just 12 days away, during which either or both of of my characters could be confirmed or disconfirmed, and after that could come a fixed schedule. I certainly don't want to waste nominations that could become obsolete in less than two weeks. But I'm also part of the team that would assemble the fixed schedule, and I don't want to abuse that power to save myself the nominations. Therefore what I've resolved to do is to wait until after E3, and if we do a fixed schedule I just won't propose the characters I want to nominate. If the others in the team think of them, great for me! And if not, well, I have over 100 extra noms stashed, I'll be fine. So for now I'll just help characters I like get into/stay in the top 7.

Inb4 E3 brings the last 2 characters and I sat on all these extra noms for nothing

Noms: Junpei x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Mike Haggar pre-Ryza

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x256
Todd Snap x255
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
Estelle Bright x235
Tetra x230
Riptor x230
Rean Schwarzer x230

250 - 201

Senator Armstrong x210
Corvo Attano x210
Meat Boy x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x200
Junpei (Zero Escape) x190
Sackboy x185
Conker x175
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x165
[Rerate] Louie x160
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x160

150 - 101

[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x123
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105
[Rerate] Tails x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Gunvolt x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Garchomp x82
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Ratchet & Clank x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
Demi-Fiend x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Reimu x40
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x35
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Gene x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Octoling x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Todd Snap passes League of Legends rep and takes second place.

Corvo Attano and Meat Boy sneak past 200 noms.

Tails flies past 100 noms.

Crazy Taxi character speeds past 25 noms.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain today, feeling quite tired today. Though GoodGrief and Sari put it perfectly, and a series as niche as Atelier, let alone one Nintendo didn't even have the confidence to promote in their overseas Directs, just isn't happening.

Also a fixed schedule would be okay as long as it's short and as long as the characters have a good reason to be rerated. But given how many characters we have to get through before the end, I think we'd need to keep a good pace going rather than letting any particular days drag on for too long (as often happens with fixed schedules). Speaking of which, if we do go down the fixed schedule route, I'm more than willing to help out in the event that any of the showrunners are busy, since I have plenty of time on my hands.

Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x20

Predictions:
Gruntilda - 0.28% - Maybe for a future game, but seeing as we just got the main characters this game, along with both Master Chief and all of Bethesda as future competition, I think a second Banjo-Kazooie rep is a bit of a long shot at the moment. Plus she was a post-release DLC spirit anyway.

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Gonna abstain today, feeling quite tired today. Though GoodGrief and Sari put it perfectly, and a series as niche as Atelier, let alone one Nintendo didn't even have the confidence to promote in their overseas Directs, just isn't happening.

Oh yeah. I remember poor Ryza got cucked by this ****ing game of all things.

It was pretty amusing to be honest, and it speaks as to how Nintendo sees the franchise.

I forgot to do Noms:

Nominating Yuri Lowell (Rerate) X5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Atelier.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ryza

0.1% Chance

Unfortunately, that interview is pretty damning. That alone would likely have put the poor girl down in the single digits, but a lot of factors seem hellbent on making sure she did poorly here. For starters, Alterier is niche. While we have gotten Terry who was niche in the West and do entertain other franchises that are niche like Falcom's JRPGs or heck Danganronpa, Alterier is a much more niche franchise. You could even argue that Nintendo thinks it is so niche that they did not push it in their mini direct, instead focusing on some crappy WWE game. It also does not help she is from Koei Tecmo. While Hayabusa also got hurt by interviews, there was a reason Crashabusa was a thing. Furthermore, you have Dynasty Warriors, a franchise Nintendo still promotes and even has their franchises cross over with. Sadly for Ryza, she probably ain't getting in this game.

Abstain want

Ryza is cool enough, I like the crafting stuff for Alterier in concept, and I have had some interest in playing the Alterier games. Keyword playing. I have not played them yet. My backlog is long with Trails taking up my RPG spot for the foreseeable future. So while I am interested in Ryza and her series, I can't give her a good rating in good faith for want. Maybe if we do this game in Smash 6, I might be speaking a different tune. For now, I can say the character and the series do genuinely interest me, but god I do not have the time on my plate for another JRPG.

Rean Schwarzer x 10

Grunty prediction: 0.15%, yeah this is gonna be brutal. I would expect a halfway decent want score though.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Ryza
Double zeroes
Yup, that sound like a something that would break NDA, alright. Not much more to say after that, frankly. Atelier feels like something way too niche and we're basically all in agreement Hayabusa has her beat (although he's arguably deconfirmed as well). Not to mention the other Koei series. I've hear her latest game sold decently well but it apparently doesn't line up with FP2's planning phase and thus doesn't matter. Also I totally forgot Nintendo chose to promote WWE shovelware to western audiences over her IP. If Nintendo can't be arsed to show Atelier in a low-key mini Direct, it's safe to say she wasn't chosen for Smash.
I myself don't have much interest in her series either. Atelier does not rank highly on my list of JRPGs to check out. I also feels she's too niche and would be confused if her of all characters were one of the final two. No harsh feelings as usual but I don't care for her.

Grunty: 0. 88% She'll do horribly but I look forward to the rhymes
Gene x10

 

[Yiptap]

Abstain on Ryza. Everything has been said already.

Noms: Meat Boy x All
Gruntilda: 0.2% (At least one person will give Gruntilda a 5%)

 

[AirMac1]

Oh yeah. I remember poor Ryza got cucked by this ****ing game of all things.

It was pretty amusing to be honest, and it speaks as to how Nintendo sees the franchise.

I forgot to do Noms:

Nominating Yuri Lowell (Rerate) X5

WWE 2K Battlegrounds isn’t actually that bad, to be honest.

 

[SharkLord]

I debated whether or not to pop in here one last time. I feel like all there is to be said has been said already regarding chances and either way nothing is gonna change her low rating in that area, but I thought I'd drop off the writeup I had from a while back

Y'know, I've kinda been drifting away from writing big writeups. I've been meaning to do this one for a while; Better late than never, I suppose.

For this, I'll be covering Ryza, titular protagonist of Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness and the Secret Hideout, and it's sequel, Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends and the Secret Fairy. Unfortunately, I've only played the first AR, so my essay will have to be limited to that. And yeah, I know she's deconfirmed, but screw it. This is for fun more than anything.

Atelier is pretty simple to explain. It's a JRPG, but instead of heroic swordsmen with crazy hairdos that exist to spite gravity and ancient gods that threaten the safety of the world, it's cute, cozy little experiences focused on personal plotlines. The gameplay's main selling point is the alchemy, where you can go out and collect stuff, then use that stuff in synthesis to create items to help you in battle. The older games used to have a time limit, but recent installments do away with that in favor of a more open world where you can explore at your own pace. The games have never made massive numbers, but aside from the couple years between the second and third games, Gust has been making games every year, plus a sizeable amount of spinoffs. For reference:

Atelier Ryza focuses on the titular Reisalin "Ryza" Stout, a girl growing up on Kurken Island. Kurken is a pretty small island, and she's at that age where she wants to go out and explore rather than remain stuck on the island, even if all the adults tell her "no." She discovers her true calling when she and her friends go to the mainland and are saved by a traveling duo, one of which is an alchemist himself. He takes her under her wing, and it's not long before she surpasses him. There's a bit more plot in there, and it's a bit darker than the standard Atelier fare, but it's not a really shocking or high-stakes one. The bulk of the game is Ryza going around the island and nearby land and using the stuff she finds to synthesize stuff.

Unlike past Atelier games, which operate on a turn-based system, Atelier Ryza shifts to a semi-real-time combat system where each combatant has a cooldown system, and everyone acts on their own instead of waiting for the turn to end. Your allies and enemies act independently, while you choose your next move. Aside from the items, there's also the Action Points, or AP, which can be spent to use skills. Alternatively, you can go to the next level when the gauge fills up, increasing the effects of the normal attacks and skills.

And now, for the moveset potential. Ryza's kit would mostly be her various gathering tools, I think. Her staff that she uses in combat is the default, but there's a couple other stuff she could use.

• Scythe - A tool for precise cuts and slicing off delicate items that other tools would smash
• Axe - A heavier tool for tougher items
• Bug Net - For catching... Y'know, bugs
• Fishing Rod - Ditto, but for aquatic creatures
• Bug Net - For catching... Y'know, bugs
• Hammer - For when the hammer won't cut it and you need to get what's inside the rocks
• Bomb Rod - Explosives
• Wind Shoes - Rather than a tool for gathering, the Wind Shoes let Ryza skip across rocks and fly up using patches of wind

It should also be noted that due to the limited carrying space, the game lets you merge tools together, effectively getting the same haul you'd get for using both tools on an item in one swing. Specifically, you can the Scythe's attributes to the Axe, the Fishing Rod's effects to the Bug Net, and the Bomb Rod's explosives to the hammer.

Aside from that, there's the synthesis. You may think, "Didn't Steve take that?", but I think it would also incorporate elements of Hero's MP Gauge and Command List too. Ryza would be able to gather materials and use them at her Cauldron, where she can craft various items that would probably work like an actual throwable item. We could have her just use Smash's items, but if we want to adhere to the source material, here's some examples:

• Bomb - More or less a stick of dynamite
• Ice Caltrops - Would cover the ground and bring pain to those that step on them
• Poison Gas - Probably something like Piranha Plant's side special
• Thorny Embrace - Something to keep opponents trapped
• Lightning Bell - An electric projectile, basically

Those are just some of the things you can craft in Atelier Ryza. Anyways, that about wraps it up. Hope I piqued your interest.

Basically, if you like casual games and seeing all the different items you can find, check out Atelier. Apparently the second game is better than the first, but it also assumes you played the first game already and you should at least see a walkthrough of the first if you want to understand the story

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The day is over, here me say,
It’s gruntilda’s day today.

The rules will get a twist this time,
Double noms for you if done in rhyme.
Meet the two sentences and do the twist,
I’m pretty sure you get the gist.

Tomorrow to predict you got Concept:From Software Rep.
It’s basically a dark souls day I bet, yep.

Also of note to all you in heaven,
Today is the last day to affect the top seven.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

TCT I hope you step on a lego for enforcing these rhymes

Chance: 0% Yeah nah. People often wonder if we can get 2 characters from the same company out of concern for overlap but 2 characters from the same franchise? Yeah nah it's not happening lmao. Ignoring this, there's no real reason for Gruntilda to be even considered. There are countless other villains that can be added, a chunk of Microsoft characters that could be added and a bunch if characters who have actual fan demand backing them. She's got literally nothing going for her so why go back and add a second character from a dead game when barely anyone actually cares about the character getting added?

Want: 0% And I'm not going to mourn her exclusion at all. I've made myself clear when I say I dislike Banjo and having a character who' only got the 3 memorable traits of lol rhyming, lol grossout humour and lmao ****ty game design wouldn't exactly convince me. If we had to have another Rare character then I'd much rather have someone from the games I actually like from them like Fulgore or the Battletoads. There's also how Banjo content failed to give me the one song I liked last time and I doubt Click Clock Wood would be included in a pack and if we get the Teddy Bear Picnick remix that I'm prettt sure is her main theme, I'm gonna be a tad salty we didn't get Krauser's theme, another public domain song though instead of a nursery rhyme it's Dies Irae.

Estelle x5
Junpei x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

TCT I hope you step on a lego for enforcing these rhymes

Chance: 0% Yeah nah. People often wonder if we can get 2 characters from the same company out of concern for overlap but 2 characters from the same franchise? Yeah nah it's not happening lmao. Ignoring this, there's no real reason for Gruntilda to be even considered. There are countless other villains that can be added, a chunk of Microsoft characters that could be added and a bunch if characters who have actual fan demand backing them. She's got literally nothing going for her so why go back and add a second character from a dead game when barely anyone actually cares about the character getting added?

Want: 0% And I'm not going to mourn her exclusion at all. I've made myself clear when I say I dislike Banjo and having a character who' only got the 3 memorable traits of lol rhyming, lol grossout humour and lmao ****ty game design wouldn't exactly convince me. If we had to have another Rare character then I'd much rather have someone from the games I actually like from them like Fulgore or the Battletoads. There's also how Banjo content failed to give me the one song I liked last time and I doubt Click Clock Wood would be included in a pack and if we get the Teddy Bear Picnick remix that I'm prettt sure is her main theme, I'm gonna be a tad salty we didn't get Krauser's theme, another public domain song though instead of a nursery rhyme it's Dies Irae.

Estelle x5
Junpei x5

No love for rhymes? It’s sad to see.
These rhymes seemed fun at least to me.

Who knows, maybe someone in the pack
Will do a rhyme post before I come back.

E3 is coming in shortly now
This thread might come to a crashing halt, but how?

 

[BowserKing]

Gruntilda

Chance: .5% (5% if this game gets a sequel). Due to Banjo and Kazooie being in the game and Steve being in the second Fighter’s pass, it’s safe to say that Gruntila won’t be getting in, at least in this pass. And it’s also surprising that Banjo and Kazooie don’t have any Mii Costumes, and it’s a slim possibility she would appear as a Mii Costume, it’s still a slim one. But in a sequel to Ultimate, she would be more of a possibility.

Want: 85%. She would be fun to play as, and I can see her in a free for all with Banjo and Kazooie, Steve and King K.Rool. In fact, I see her as the final opponent Banjo and Kazooie face off against in their classic mode. I also see Gruntila facing off against Bayonetta. And of course you should never forget about her rhymes that she’s could use on her stage. Overall, she has a lot of potential and wouldn’t make a very great Smash Bros fighter.

Prediction: From Software Rep (5%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[Louie G.]

GRUNTY

CHANCE - 0%
A strong case for Grunty cannot be found,
For the poor witch resides in a stage background.
Now I know this may not spell certain doom,
But I don't think Alfonzo can pilot a broom.
And even if he could... as far as I can see,
Spiral Mountain was DLC.

But alas, beyond that how does Gruntilda fare?
Well maybe if they wanted someone else from Rare.
From Microsoft though, it'd have to be Chief.
If it was somehow Grunty, I'd be in disbelief.

WANT - 30%
Gruntilda is great and fun no doubt,
but Grunty DLC... I can do without.
Rare has received so much love already,
so for now I'd prefer something else instead...y.

FROM SOFTWARE - 27.5%
Recently a lot of confidence has sparked
for the series that features Souls which are Dark.

TAILS x (max)
He may be a costume but in my defense,
a new Sega character makes a lot of sense.

 

[Perkilator]

Grunty's part of the bear and bird's Spirit board,
An unfortunate victim of the great PNG hoard.

That's why, while it causes me pain,
For today I simply have to abstain.

FromSoft Rep: 40%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot ×5

 

[Sari]

Grunty

Chance: 0%
This is an easy rating for the old lass.
As we already got Banjo in the first pass.
Additional Banjo content is a sailed away ship.
As I do not seeing the series getting a double-dip.

Outside of the Bear there is nothing but grief.
Since Microsoft also owns Master Chief.
More popular and relevant is how Chief wins the night.
As he is more likely to finish the fight.

Oh, did I mention a certain pet peeve?
Well that would be none other than Steve.
It's hard for one pass to see Microsoft get two.
Which means Grunty's chances are totally through.


Want: 0%
Is she my most wanted witch? Well that's putting it brashly.
As I would still much prefer WarioWare's Ashley.
The same comes with other names of the Microsoft source.
Since Chief would be way more hype of course.

If all of this trashing wasn't enough to hurl...
I haven't even talked about a certain squirrel!
Conker is another character that's gotten my care.
And just like with Grunty he's owned by Rare.

Between the green space man and the funny drunk rodent.
Grunty getting in first would be a really bad moment.
She'll have to stay a background character... at least I'd hope so.
Since if cameos are eligible than I'd rather have Kyo!

-----

From Software chance prediction: 15.00%

Nominations:
Conker x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

I have no idea how I'm going to count sentences for this but I'm loving it, keep it coming y'all

Spoiler: Nominations post-Ryza pre-Grunty

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x261
Todd Snap x260
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x242
Rean Schwarzer x240
Estelle Bright x235
Riptor x235
Tetra x230

250 - 201

[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x220
Senator Armstrong x210
Corvo Attano x210
Meat Boy x210
Junpei (Zero Escape) x205

200 - 151

Conker x195
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Louie x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x165
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x165

150 - 101

[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x150
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x123
D.Va x115
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x115
[Rerate] Tails x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Gunvolt x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Garchomp x87
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Ratchet & Clank x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Demi-Fiend x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Reimu x40
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
[Rerate] Gene x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Octoling x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Riptor claws past Tetra and ties with Estelle Bright for fourth place. And then Rean Schwarzer cuts past Tetra, Riptor and Estelle and he takes fourth place.

Yuri Lowell and Junpei escape beyond 200 noms.

Gene punches past 25 noms.

 

[fogbadge]

in place of a funny line,
this video works just fine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ELRgkRMkj6w

for chances I'm afraid its 0.
we wont see her alongside hero.
when it comes to this smash bout,
another MS character i do doubt.
i feel theyd rather have the chief
though his inclusion would give me grief
but if ever another from this series
it would be her in all theories.
but alas this time its not to be
we wont see her at E3

as for want its 100%
i would be beyond content.
as a villain she is amazing
hence why now i am praising.
her moveset would be wild
her power would not be mild.
with her spell and machines
she may seem a little extreme.
but she would be a lot of fun
more so than a chief with a gun.
id hope her alt would be the skeleton
while she turns her foes to gelatin.

i hope ive earned noms a plenty
for todd snap i give 20

 

[AirMac1]

Chance: 3%
We just got the title characters from Banjo-Kazooie, so I don’t see us getting the main villain from the series anytime soon. Also, Gruntilda has a lot of competition from other Microsoft characters, especially other Rare characters.

Want: 50%
As much as I enjoy Banjo-Kazooie, I don’t see a reason to include the villain in Smash at the moment. I mean, even Bowser wasn’t added to Smash until Melee! That said, I wouldn’t oppose to the idea.

Prediction: FromSoftware rep: 30%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep xMAX

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Gruntilda
Chance: 0%

I feel that the lady larger than Taft likely has already been given the shaft.
Unfortunately for this mean green witch, she's in as a Spirit and that's a *****.
The duo from Rare took quite a lot, of fan demand which Grunty has not.
When the Bear and Bird are here and there, I think a double-dip's kinda unfair.
Still, for Xbox she would lose the race against the Spartan from outer-space.

Want: 1%

She's from a game I did not play, but I think a Spirit she can stay.
The witch is fun with her broom and tank, yet her inclusion would just leave me blank.
More Banjo content frankly would be a bore, for my wanted fighters it would close another door.
A second rep Rare does not need, inviting some other dev would be a better deed.
Got nothing against the witch who rhymes, these final DLC will just be tough times.

Fromsoft: 15.29%
Gene x20