Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Jomosensual]

Abstaining again because I have no mental energy to do a write up right now and I'm lost in all the poetry stuff

Predictions:
From Soft -7.42

Noms:
Riptor x5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Grunty

Chance: 0%
Why must you force me to rhyme?
It takes up so much time.

This witch got kicked to the corner
By the Bear who's company also owns her.

Now she's just a background prop
On a stage that just won't stop.

Plus, she's an added Spirit.
Um... can someone help me rhyme with "spirit"?

The only chance she has now
Is if Microsoft comes back to the next cash cow.

But that depends on cooperation
For a far too off operation.

Abstain on want. I know nothing about Banjo-Kazooie.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist xMax

 

[DanganZilla5]

Let's see if I can brew up a writeup for this fumblin' witch.

Chance: 1%

A grisly witch from a represented series.
She may have the attitude of a comedian,
but she has the chances of a bear escaping a bear trap.
Why?
Look no further than fellow company brethrens,
Master Chief, the icon,
Fulgore, the bustling killer of instincts,
Conker, one who matches the vulgar of the wicked witch herself.
But that's not all.
I hear from the skies: DLC spirit!
Now that's as bad luck as getting squished by a boulder.
Looks like the bear and bird have already covered most of the bases,
outmatched her in demand,
there is isn't much this witch can bring to the table,
aside from more green,
plus boss music,
which should've been there already

Want: 15%

There's nothin' better than rhythms.
'cept a guy in a green suit,
or a cyborg with a hairdo,
or battlin' toads,
basically there's little interest from your's truly,
Her words may be charming,
but her game's represented plentifully,
just rather see other folks come into town.

Prediction: basically Dark Souls - 16%

Noms: Yuri Lowell x20

 

[GoodGrief741]

I can't rhyme so have the lyrics to Alexander Hamilton instead

Spoiler

How does a b*stard, orphan, son of a wh*re
And a Scotsman, dropped in the middle of a forgotten spot
In the Caribbean by providence impoverished
In squalor, grow up to be a hero and a scholar?
The ten-dollar founding father without a father
Got a lot farther by working a lot harder
By being a lot smarter
By being a self-starter
By fourteen, they placed him in charge of a trading charter
And every day while slaves were being slaughtered and carted away
Across the waves, he struggled and kept his guard up
Inside, he was longing for something to be a part of
The brother was ready to beg, steal, borrow, or barter
Then a hurricane came, and devastation reigned
Our man saw his future drip, dripping down the drain
Put a pencil to his temple, connected it to his brain
And he wrote his first refrain, a testament to his pain
Well, the word got around, they said, this kid is insane, man
Took up a collection just to send him to the mainland
Get your education, don't forget from whence you came
And the world is gonna know your name
What's your name, man?
Alexander Hamilton
My name is Alexander Hamilton
And there's a million things I haven't done
But just you wait, just you wait
When he was ten his father split, full of it, debt-ridden
Two years later, see Alex and his mother bed-ridden
Half-dead sittin' in their own sick, the scent thick
And Alex got better but his mother went quick
Moved in with a cousin, the cousin committed suicide
Left him with nothin' but ruined pride, something new inside
A voice saying, "Alex, you gotta fend for yourself"
He started retreatin' and readin' every treatise on the shelf
There would have been nothin' left to do for someone less astute
He woulda been dead or destitute without a cent of restitution
Started workin', clerkin' for his late mother's landlord
Tradin' sugar cane and rum and all the things he can't afford
Scammin' for every book he can get his hands on
Plannin' for the future see him now as he stands on
The bow of a ship headed for the new land
In New York you can be a new man
In New York you can be a new man (just you wait)
In New York you can be a new man (just you wait)
In New York you can be a new man
In New York, New York
Just you wait
Alexander Hamilton
Alexander Hamilton
We are waiting in the wings for you
Waiting in the wings for you
You could never back down
You never learned to take your time
Oh, Alexander Hamilton
Alexander Hamilton
When America sings for you
Will they know what you overcame?
Will they know you rewrote your game?
The world will never be the same, oh
The ship is in the harbor now
See if you can spot him (just you wait)
Another immigrant comin' up from the bottom (just you wait)
His enemies destroyed his rep America forgot him
We, fought with him
Me, I died for him
Me, I trusted him
Me, I loved him
And me, I'm the damn fool that shot him (shot him, shot him)
There's a million things I haven't done
But just you wait
What's your name, man?
Alexander Hamilton

Now for my boring-ass rating

Chance: 0%
Microsoft already got a fighter in this Pass, unfortunately. Plus B-K just joined Smash, in this game and for DLC. So it seems pretty early for it to get another rep. Third party franchises getting their second unique characters is a new phenomenon, like it's happened only once. So Grunty's inclusion hinges on multiple nigh-impossible scenarios coming to fruition at once.

Want: 90%
I hope Banjo sticks around in future entries because I'd love to have Gruntilda as a fighter. She's incredibly memorable and one of the quintessential villains in gaming imo. The witch is one of the untapped archetypes and I can think of only her, Ashley and Kamek as potentials. She isn't what I'd pick for a second Microsoft rep or even a second Rare rep but she'd be a worthy choice and one I'd enjoy.

Seriously, at the very least a Smash taunt with her has to be included at some point. They don't even need to pay for voice acting, it's perfect!

Noms: Junpei X10
From prediction: 14%

 

[Ridrool64]

It's time for me to return, as for Smash I once again yearn!

Gruntilda Chance: 0%, to my dismay, we shall not see Grunty on that day. It's been said here and there, but her chances were killed by bird and bear. She's on a stage, plain as vanilla, near the mountain and Banjo's villa. We've had promotions, that I can see, but none so far for DLC. And just to not look like a twit, I know about her own Spirit. Even giving those their leave, she won't happen now with Steve. As a result, I think it's clear, Gruntilda Winkybunion will not be here. With many fantasties to hear and foster, Grunty will not join the roster.

Gruntilda Want, is still somewhat low, but 35% is where I'll go. If she was picked, I'd have some beef, for them rejecting Master Chief. He's green too, and really big, compared to his stardom she's a twig. Comes from a new genre to boot, the one where you aim and shoot. Even if they were totally bonkers, the next MS slot should be Conker's. And if they won't walk those roads, then there's always the Battletoads. Others might want it more, but a Microsoft rep I don't adore. But as a character, I like her enough. She'd be straightforward and have no fluff. Except for her rhymes, that part's great, and I'd have her laugh in 8. I already want a different mage, but with Grunty around I wouldn't rage. She is great, I won't lie, but for me Grunty's not do or die.

Time to use those extra noms, what would I think be the bomb? Speaking of that raunchy red squirrel, I'll give them to him, let him have a whirl! In other words, Conker's my choice, give him all nominations to my voice! Yes, even the extras, they'll finally be used, and when we rate him I'll be amused!

For From Soft I shan't predict, I'd be too soft or too strict. I don't know what to give them there, so I'll abstain, and let others fare.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Sadly I will have to say,
that I will be abstaining today.
Until next game the witch has to grieve,
since she's certainly not coming since we just got Steve.
It's unusual for me to abstain in a row, two times,
but there's no way I can beat these epic rhymes!

Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
FromSoft Rep - 32.95% - Demons and Bloodborne will have to wait for their roles, because there's no way anybody's topping Dark Souls!

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Gruntilda Zeppeli.

Chance: 0%

No Rhymes for me, because i suck at them.

Gruntilda is pretty much a no hoper, if we get a MC character, it will be well..............................MC. Even i believe he's the on line next, even if i find him unlikely (and wish he never came to Smash) Yeah, there's Sephiroth, but muh FF7 content you know? Banjo is already well fed, and don't tell me you think Gruntilda's absence as a Mii Costume means anything.

Want: 15%

I would prefer Conker first as the next Rareware character, but it's hard to deny Banjo & Kazooie's character charm. Plus, i would take her over Master Chief anyday of the week, oh yeah.

Noms:
Yuri Lowell Rerate X5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Oh, we're doin' a rhyme? Sorry, I ain't got no time.
Abstain.

Noms: Corvo x5

 

[NintenRob]

Todays the day we rate we the witch
To see if she appears in Smash on Switch
To other fighters we must compare
Lets just see how her number fair
For her chance I must give a Zero (chance 0%)
Afterall, we do have the hero.
And to forget her stage role would be amiss
Though other fighters, i wish she'd diss
But things change with the score of want
You could say it comes with a change of font
a score so high, I'd say Ninety (want 90%)
afterall, she's the Great Witch Grunty


nominate new Zelda rep xMax (i hope that rhyme was enough to score maximum noms)

 

[Flyboy]

Gruntilda

My poetry skills, I must say, lack...
But this is fun, so what the heck!

It has been said and said before
She's a spirit, a cameo, nothing more
Banjo already was a surprise
But a second Rare rep feels like lies
Especially one also from BK
Over the Battletoads, Fulgore, Conker, no way!
Enough, though, of this song and dance
I give her 0% Chance.

My want score is a little higher
For she as a villain I do admire
Her moves with magic, bots, and spells
Would surely give the fighters hell!
And while my love of BK has faded
I am certainly not close to jaded
To see one more villain join the fray
Would absolutely make my day!
She's funny and fresh, and exciting to boot
But competition renders this point moot
For not only will Rare characters give her grief
Bethesda is Microsoft, as is Master Chief.
With tears in my eyes, as though cutting an onion...
10% Want for Ms. Winkybunion.

My love of Dishonored is not always loud
But for these nominations I am very proud
For a series I love, though it may lay low...
Maximum Noms for Corvo Attano.

 

[Yiptap]

You can't force me to rate in rhyme! That would be a waste of time!

Chance: 0%
If you give this Gruntilda a chance score higher than 0, then that'll just leave me at a loss for words. Not only is Grunty a DLC spirit, she is also a fricking stage cameo. Now that the obvious is stated, what else stops the lass from getting in? Well first off, Microsoft owns Rare. Not only did Rare get a character the pass before with Banjo and Kazooie, but Microsoft already got a rep this pass with Steve. It's not the most damning evidence, but I believe that we won't have two reps of the same company in one pass. Oh, and Master Chief is a much more requested and well-known pick than Grunty.

Want: 20%
I have no real attachment to Banjo and Kazooie at all. I don't really see a need to include Gruntilda in the game. But it isn't like I hate the idea neither. She just isn't a character that makes me say "How the f*** is Gruntilda in Smash!?"

Noms: Meat Boy x All

 

[fogbadge]

she is also a fricking stage cameo.

king dedede is a stage cameo

 

[DaUsername]

I'll abstain from Grunty this time.
Do I still get double noms because of this rhyme?

From prediction: 20%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x however many I earned

 

[Yiptap]

king dedede is a stage cameo

Forgot that sorry

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Gruntillda
0.1% Chance
I could go on, but others did for me
Grunty is extremely unlikely
A Microsoft double dip already would be rare,
But for Grunty? I doubt they would care
Bethesda reps and Master Chief hog that scene
Grunty in smash will still be a dream
Even if we check in on Rare
they have other options to spare
Conker, Killer Instinct and Battletoads
Offer a second rare rep many other roads
The competition is to fierce for this witch
This rating went of without a hitch.

0% Want
I am sorry to say this today
But would I want Grunty? No way
While her music being absent is a crime
There are better Rare choices for next time
Despite being never rated in this thread
Conker is more appealing, Grunty should stay dead
A cult classic with a link to Banjo
Is Grunty better than this? Hell no
And if we go Microsoft to give further beef
no one can stand up to the Chief
Halo is a gaming all star, Microsoft's golden boy
Master Chief in Smash would give everyone joy
Bethesda also brings Dragonborn and Doomguy
Shooting Grunty right out of the sky.

But probably Grunty's greatest sin
Is the spot speculation is in
We have about 2 more spots left for hope
With a bonus slot in the AU website our only hope
The content is limited as of now
Gruntilda would not make me go wow
I do not hate her, but alas
Grunty in smash does not get a pass
Would she be unique and fun?
Doesn't matter, think of what else we could have done
Slots are scarce, and I won't change my stances
Grunty is going to do bad in Rate Their Chances.

Rean should be locked in, so today
Conker gets max noms thrown my way.

Tomorrow we have From Software I guess,
Which is another dark souls rating with extra finesse
In terms of its odds, I would not say great
So in terms of percentage, lets go with an 8.

One last thing before I bail,
there is something on the noms list I have to entail.
Rean and Estelle are both from Trails and are almost locked in
Would a double day of those two be a sin?
Now before I make this a reality for us
There is one caveat we have to discuss
Since I was the one pushing for Rean on the list
Those that pushed Estelle would have to agree, yall get the gist.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

No love for rhymes? It’s sad to see.
These rhymes seemed fun at least to me.

Who knows, maybe someone in the pack
Will do a rhyme post before I come back.

E3 is coming in shortly now
This thread might come to a crashing halt, but how?

As for Rean and Estelle, I think doing a dual day would be ideal as it makes the days more diverse, after all, if you're not interested in Trails, having 2 days dedicated to it can come across as annoying at worst

 

[Pillow]

Gruntilda
Chance - 0%
Banjo's already in
His series don't need another win
Sure Grunty's cool
But can't stand against the current pool
Rhyming's too hard
Nintendo pls fix Charizard

Want - 0%
While we do need more villains
This one leaves me big chillin
It's not like she'd make me angry
But the superior witch is clearly Ashley

Noms:
xMax Miku

 

[TCT~Phantom]

View attachment 317818


As for Rean and Estelle, I think doing a dual day would be ideal as it makes the days more diverse, after all, if you're not interested in Trails, having 2 days dedicated to it can come across as annoying at worst

Sad to see the distaste for rhymes,
but glad to see support for Estelle and Rean
One Trails day might be better than two
Did anyone else push Estelle other than you?

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Sad to see the distaste for rhymes,
but glad to see support for Estelle and Rean
One Trails day might be better than two
Did anyone else push Estelle other than you?

HAHAAAA REAN'S PRONOUNCED LIKE GREEN YOU CRACKED

I think Blankiturayman got some votes in? Not sure

 

[FancySmash]

Eh heh heh heh heh!

"At last, at last, it's Grunty's turn!
Once I'm in Smash, that bear will burn!
For chance, I'm clearly a perfect score,
I'm far too important to ignore.
Dingpot says my chance is low,
But boo I say, what does it know!
My battle theme was left out,
And that was from an iconic bout.
Clearly they intend for me as DLC,
And then soon I'll star in Banjo Threeie!
As for want, it's an obvious score,
It matches chance, and then times four!
Of course I wanna be in Smash,
Wait till gamers see me bash!
They'll say, 'wow, that Grunty's great!',
Not bad for a witch from '98!"

Jokes aside, the real score:
Chance: 1%
Want: 95%

Not my preferred villain, but if Final Fantasy can get a villain despite lacking content from the beginning, I'm definitely down for other third parties getting their respective foe. My most wanted is Eggman, but Grunty here, and others like Wily, the Pac Ghosts, you name it. I say give 'em a chance. Chance though... not likely. She's already a spirit and a stage presence, and Steve serves this pass' Microsoft character. So unlikely, but I'd welcome it.

 

[Lionfranky]

Gruntilda

Double Zero

I will say again and again. Series that already got plenty of contents in the game are pretty much out. They need to show new contents to convince players that each slot is worth money. Gruntilda has none of it. She doesn't have fan-demand. Even within Rare pool, there is too much competition: Battletoad, Killer Instinct, Perfect Dark Zero and Conker (which I don't want). And within Microsoft pool, Master Chief runs top. As there are only two slots left, I don't want anyone from MS pool to stand in his way.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

I had to check the numbers, but it looks like Todd Snap overtook Carmen Sandiago barely, so I will end the day.

Rate a From Software rep, predict Todd Snap.

On a side note, I will be trying to get through this week faster so we can certainly get to E3 on time. If the top 10 does not shift too much, here is what I would have in mind. Just keep in mind I want to make sure we get through this week around by the 14th at the latest, so be prepared to make sure your write ups are on time.

If the noms list holds where it is (I did not math it out outside of the top two), this is likely what we would do. Waiting on GoodGrief to get the final noms list for that.

610: Todd Snap
611: Carmen Sandiago
612: LoL
613: Estelle Bright and Rean Schwarzer Double Day
614: Tetra
615: Riptor

That brings us to the fixed schedule. Since speculation might be done completely, we likely will do a shorter fixed schedule, depending on what people want. We will discuss this later in the week.

 

[Perkilator]

Chance: 20%
Realistically, the only series I can see representing FromSoft (at least, among the series I can be bothered to mention) is Dark Souls. Demon's Souls and Bloodborne are owned by Sony, and Sekiro's owned by Activision.

Want: 80%
I've never actually played a FromSoft game, much less (God forbid) a SoulsBorne game, but Chosen Undead is a character I happily support! I made a moveset back in the day, inspired primarily by Source Gaming's interpretation.

Todd Snap: 35%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot ×5

 

[DanganZilla5]

From the company that brought you challenging as **** software

Chance: 20%

So let's break this down shall we. I'll be going over pretty much all of the notable titles that From Software has made.

• Armored Core - A decently popular series with a big catalogue of games. But there hasn't been a game in 8 years and from what I've seen it has never breached a Nintendo system. I'm not sure if this would be on Nintendo's radar.
• Bloodborne - Unfortunately it's owned by Sony. If Sony were to get a rep I'd imagine it would be someone like Kratos or Nathan Drake.
• Sekiro Shadows Die Twice - A critically acclaimed and very successful recent title. It was released in early 2019 so the timing works well but there are two things that hurt this. 1. it's not on the Switch and 2. To my knowledge Activision owns it since they published it in the West. If Activision does get a character it would be Crash due to all his merits but if not, well there are other candidates like Tracer too.
• Dark Souls - By far the most likely pick out of this bunch. It has made a name for itself and it's one of the most influential series of these past couple generations. Out of Bamco's impressive selection, it is one of their more likely candidates. The only thing is that Bamco is in a weird spot as they seem to be chilling in the background which raises concern whether or not they would actually get another rep. But with how significant and successful Dark Souls is, I do think it is at least a dark horse (pun intended) choice.

Want: 40%

Overall I would be fine with any of these. I suck at this company's games but I appreciate them. I did enjoy what I played of Bloodborne even though I eventually rage quitted and sold the game (which I rarely do). But what I do like about From Software's games is the atmosphere and I have to admit that the combat is rewarding. And generally there is something about these games I would be interested in if they did make it into Smash. For Dark Souls and Bloodborne it would be the atmospheric stage and moody music, for Sekiro it would be the classic Japanese stage and the moveset, and as for Armored Core, well it's a mech game and I'm totally up for a mech character in Smash (There is Bowser Jr. but I'm talking about just a straight up mech like a Gundam even though Gundam is a pipe dream for Smash). It just so happens that I found Armored Core 2 Another Age at a flea market today and played some of it. It's brutal but it's something that I could see myself getting invested in.

But I'm going to slightly lean towards no for this concept as I don't feel strongly towards any of these getting into Smash and there are plenty of other companies that I would like to see get a rep (or more reps) first.

Prediction: Todd Snap - 13%

Noms: Ayumi Tachibana x10

 

[AirMac1]

I’m gonna abstain. I’ve never played a FromSoftware game in my life.

Prediction: Todd Snap 10%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep. xMAX

 

[BowserKing]

From Software

Chance: 5%. Chances are, if a character from From Software were to show up it will be from Dark Souls, but even then, I have doubts a fighter from that company’s will appear in the game. With that said, if a character from said company did appear, I would be surprised.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much about From Software, but a fighter from said company would be fun to play as, but the question is who? Overall, a rep from that company would make a decent Smash bros Rep.

Prediction: Todd Snap (5%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp

 

[GoodGrief741]

THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 611: Todd Snap (Pokémon)
Day 612: Conker (Conker)
Day 613: Carmen Sandiego (Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego?)
Day 614: Yuri Lowell (Tales)
Day 615: Concept: League of Legends rep
Day 616: Rean Schwarzer (Trails/The Legend of Heroes/Dragon Slayer)*
Day 617: Riptor (Killer Instinct)

So, yesterday more people made the effort to rhyme than I expected. That means a lot of noms were thrown around, and a lot of changes went down in the top seven. Todd snapped the crown right out of Carmen's thieving hands, but that's just the tip of the iceberg. Conker got a whopping 75 noms, which propelled him all the way to second place. Yuri also joined into a pretty high place, and those two kicked Estelle and Tetra off the schedule.

The new top seven consists of Estelle Bright*, Corvo Attano, Tetra, Senator Armstrong, Meat Boy, Junpei, Sackboy and Louie.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Grunty pre-Concept: From Software rep

Estelle Bright x235
Corvo Attano x235
Tetra x230
Senator Armstrong x220
Meat Boy x220
Junpei (Zero Escape) x220
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Louie x185

200 - 151

Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x175
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x165
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x155

150 - 101

Mii Costume: Monika x135
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x135
[Rerate] Tails x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x128
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Gunvolt x100
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Garchomp x87
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Ratchet & Clank x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Demi-Fiend x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
[Rerate] Gene x50
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x45
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Reimu x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Octoling x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Crash Bandicoot spins past 150 noms.

*Now here's a question for the denizens of the thread. In order to speed things up pre-E3 we had thought to combine Rean and Estelle's days - the people who nominated them were okay with it and that would have allowed for an 8th character to get rated. However now we find ourselves in the opposite situation as it was Estelle who didn't make the schedule.

So the question to all of you is: would it be okay if we still fused the two days? Some things worth noting: Estelle is currently tied for 8th place, with Corvo; it's possible that E3 has the two final reveals; if E3 has just one reveal we might do a fixed schedule after it, so the next top seven might not get chosen for a while. With all that in mind, it's up to you guys.

 

[DanganZilla5]

I'm fine with combining the days for the two Falcom reps. Besides I think similar points will be brought up in both days anyway.

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the From Software mood:

Spoiler: From Software Music

-----

I'm going to abstain since I'm not too familiar with the company.

Todd Snap chance prediction: 1.00%

Nominations:
Conker Mii Costume: 2B x5

(Also I'm fine with combining the two days)

 

[Lionfranky]

Some songs to get into the From Software mood:

Spoiler: From Software Music

-----

I'm going to abstain since I'm not too familiar with the company.

Todd Snap chance prediction: 1.00%

Nominations:
Conker x5

(Also I'm fine with combining the two days)

Conker is locked, so nomination toward the squirrel is obsolete.

 

[Perkilator]

I think I'm gonna ditch out of RTC.

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain nominate new Zelda character x5.

I figured Carmen would lose top spot, but since she was guaranteed for the schedule, nominating her felt pointless so I decided to nominate something else.

 

[fogbadge]

i take it we no longer get double noms for rhyming? anyway im gonna abstain as im not overly familiar with from software beyond the fact that dark sould is agonizingly difficult. guess ill put my 5 noms towards the tails rerate

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Oh my ****ing god my draft got deleted and I forgot to save it in my notes. Give me a bit and I'll either edit it in or post it later today

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Basically just Dark Souls
Chance: 7.5%
Yeah, Dark Souls is the only FromSoft IP I see having a shot here. That franchise is the face of the studio and Bandai Namco own stake in it. Their other games are owned by devs not involved with Smash and they're already Dark Souls in everything but name anyway, besides Armored Core of course. Dark Souls is first in the From Softsware pecking order but that might not be the same when it comes to Namco. Tales of is huge competition and characters like Lloyd and Yuri are more highly demanded and likely safer picks. That's unfortunate for Souls since the DLC will soon end.

Want: Abstaining

Todd Snap: 4.34%
Gene x5

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Chance: 30% From Software went from the small company you may have known for Echo Night or Armoured Core before they took over the goddamn planet with revolutionary masterpiece Dark Souls, making people constantly try to imitate but never end up replicating the brutally harsh and depressing world that left people so satisfied if they finally got through. I think it's safe to say that alongside Skyrim, Dark Souls is one of the most important games in the last decade. The only real hurdle this has is that From Soft's most beloved works are owned by Sony or Namco, the latter seeming hesitant to get another character out of fear for seeming biased as they make Smash these days

Want: 40% Truth be told I only have like 2 minutes of experience of From Soft under my belt, trying Dark Souls 3 at a friend before dying because an enemy popped up out of nowhere when I was trying to get a feel for the controls and made me panick off of a cliff. Despite this I have major respect for the Soulsborne style even if I feel that an easy mode wouldn't ruin it. The intense atmosphere and rich lore are fascinating and sense of scale makes for a damn perfect adaptation of Berserk

Junpei x 10

 

[Pillow]

Chance - 50%
As others have said, Dark Souls is the most likely candidate from FromSoft. The series literally spawned its own genre in recent years. It's widely popular Worldwide and in Japan. I'm giving it a 50% chance, which is pretty much the highest I'm willing to give anything right now with only 2 characters left. A Dark Souls Rep is something I would bet on, if I had to predict anyone.

As for who the character would be, I do genuinely think that it's far more likely we get the avatar character over someone like Solaire. It just kind of follows the usual Smash trend.

I also wanted to bring attention to Sekiro, which is much less of a household name, but was still a major success, a technical successor to the series as DS is a completed trilogy, and it's release window has good timing for Smash DLC selection. While I do think Dark Souls is still more likely, I would say Wolf from Sekiro still stands a pretty decent chance

Want - 50-80%
Despite me being the one to nominate FromSoft, it was mostly because I was curious on what others thought the chances were on the character I personally deem most likely to appear. While i have played through all the Dark Souls game, and consider myself a fan, I do think that the Chosen Undead might be a clunky looking and feeling character in Smash. The want goes up if it's Wolf or the Bloodborne hunter instead, but as previously mentioned, these other representatives stand little to no shot.

Noms:
Miku x Max

 

[Jomosensual]

Fromsoft rep

Chance 15 - There's a few sleeper picks here I'd like to talk about. The obvious one is Dark Souls, which has pretty much been in the outer circle of speculation for a while now. I actually thought Dark Souls was Bandi Namco, so that's interesting. After that I think we have 2 good sleeper picks. The first is Wolf from Sekiro. Sekiro won game of the year fairly recently so I take no issues with Nintendo deciding they want to capitalize on that. However, it also isn't on the switch and I don't Sekiro is big enough to overcome that right now. The other game is Bloodborne, which was also a massive critical success and while not as recent as Sekiro, it still did very, very well to the point where I occasionally still hear about it now. Much like Sekiro though, it's not on the switch and I'm not sure it's big enough to break that barrier down.


Want 50 - I wouldn't hate it. If it's one of the 3 series above I think it's 100% deserving. Not going much higher than that though since I don't have any history with any of those series and we could easily get something dumb given how broad the topic is.

Predictions:
Todd Snap - 0.67%

Noms( Haven't had to nom something new in a long while)
Ori x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

Literally the worst name any developer has ever had

Chance: 5%
From Soft technically doesn't own any of the Souls games (maybe Elden Ring? But that's probably Bamco too) so this is more of an abstract grouping of several different companies' reps than a real thing. Well, I guess From Soft might own the IP to some of their other projects but we all know we're basically rating this for the Souls stuff. It's From Soft's claim to fame, the most influential thing they ever did and pretty much the only thing they're doing really.

So, Sony owns Demon's Souls and Bloodborne. That basically means they're out, even in the small chance we get a Sony rep it won't be from one of those franchises. Same with Sekiro, there are other Acti-Blizz franchises that would get priority. Which leaves us with Elden Ring and Dark Souls. Those are owned by Bandai Namco, a company that's already involved in Smash and whose frontrunner series are pretty much out of the equation, leaving room for a darkhorse to take the spot. Elden Ring is probably not it seeing how it's not out and is not planned for the Switch. But Dark Souls is in a good position. It has games on Nintendo and calling it influential and historically significant is an understatement.

However I think what kills Dark Souls is Sakurai's newfound interest in replicating a series' gameplay through its character. Dark Souls has slow and punishing combat with an emphasis on precise strikes and constant healing. I don't think there's a way to implement that into a fighter without making them either incredibly broken or boring to play as and against. If the limb-button system, a much less integral part of Tekken, kept Heihachi out of Smash, I don't see how Dark Souls stands much of a chance.

Want: abstain
The only From Soft games I've played and enjoyed are the Armored Core games and Metal Wolf Chaos. Please From Soft bring back Armored Core, Front Mission tried and failed and I need mecha games in my life. But yeah, as awesome as having Michael Wilson the President of the United States of America in Smash would be, there's no chance of it happening, so I gotta judge this on the merits of Dark Souls.

I don't really like the Dark Souls games. I have an insane amount of respect for the way they tell their stories which is super unique and something that can only be done in videogames. The same goes for how they invented a genre (technically Demon's Souls but still, impressive). But the execution of the gameplay not so much, I found hitboxes and collision detection pretty broken to the point where they made the difficulty unfair and the deaths cheap. Normally I love games that kick my ass but combined with how punishing deaths are and how slow-paced progression is, yeah, I didn't enjoy what I played. From what I've seen Bloodborne is much more refined and Sekiro is that and also super fast paced so those would probably be more to my liking but they aren't the games that would get a fighter anyway.

I also don't find the concept of a Dark Souls fighter to be enticing at all. I've already mentioned how I don't think a fighter would work gameplay-wise, but character-wise a generic mute in a suit of armor isn't very compelling to me either.

That said Dark Souls would absolutely deserve a character even if I think it's a series that would be better served with a stage and a boss. So at the end of the day if Sakurai surprises me and the execution is alright I'd probably accept the inclusion.

Noms: Gunvolt x10
Todd Snap prediction: 4.8%

Oh by the way we'd love to hear more feedback on the Estelle thing, even if it's just "I don't have an opinion on this", please say so so that at least we know you're aware!

 

[Inue Houji]

I'm up for the Trails double day.

FromSoft rep
Chance: 5%
While FromSoft might have had a decent chance normally, I'm still dead set on Lloyd/a Tales character being one of the last two fighters. With Bandai-Namco's rep situation being what it is, I doubt they'd get two back-to-back fighters.
As for which series would be repped, Dark Souls is pretty much the only answer. Sekiro won game of the years and stuff, yeah, but it's Dark Souls. Even if I'm not much of a fan of the games, even I have to admit their influence and visibility in the past 10 years or so. The chosen undead would probably be their pick, but who knows? Maybe they'll surprise us for once.

Want: 40%
As for me personally, I'm kinda meh on the concept generally.
However,..... if we got Raikoh from Otogi, I'd be totally on board!
Alas, this will never happen.
The realistic pick would be Dark Souls, and for that I wouldn't be very excited. I respect the importance of the series though, so it gets some bonus points for that.

Predictions
Todd Snap: 3.1%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x10