Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Jomosensual]

Im good with whatever for the double days

 

[Yiptap]

Abstain

Noms: Meat Boy x 5

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about FromSoft.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

From Software with Love

5% Chance

Let's be honest, this is a Dark Souls rating with extra steps. And there lies the problem. See, I am on the train that Mii Costumes are not a good sign for a company being on board. With Heihachi being a MIi, that spells bad news in my eyes. Why not save the namco costumes for a Namco character, like Chosen Undead? In terms of Namco characters, I would say Dark Souls is one of the more likely choices at the end of the day. Aside from Tales of and Tekken, it would be what I would go with for a Namco character, so that's a boon. But I doubt we will get anything from Namco, as much as Dark Souls has been super influential over the past decade.

Abstain Want

I honestly do not care for the Soulsborne style that much. I played a bit of Bloodborne and it never hooked me. Perhaps if I replayed it I would care more. At the end of the day though, I just do not care about this at all right now. Maybe if I get into the Souls games I would care more, I love the artstyle and the gameplay having a strong focus on challenge tickles my fancy. But I have many other games I want to play first, so it is low on my priorities list.

Nominating Officer Howard x 10

Ending the day, rate Todd Snap from Pokemon and predict Conker from Conker.

Just going to put my Todd Snap rating in here so I do not double post.

0.1% Chance

I mean, Pokemon Snap is the new hotness again. But Todd is only a supporting character in the new one. It also does not help that Todd has to compete with actual pokemon for a Pokemon spot. Yeah, repping snap would be cool, but I think GF would prefer to do a Gen 8 or even a Gen 4 pokemon. Legends Trainer also would imo be a more likely pick. When you are in a series like Pokemon, the competition is fierce. Sadly, Todd ends up falling short.

I also figured I would mention this since I know this would be brought up. Technically, Todd Snap made his debut in the anime. Given the timeframe of when Snap was being developed, I doubt that the anime episode was made without some prior knowledge of what Pokemon Snap would be. As a result, we gave Todd a pass. This did not affect my rating but I figured I would share it now.

20% Want

Honestly, I would rather we get a Pokemon Snap stage than a pokemon snap character. The idea of going on an on rails pokemon photography adventure, seeing pokemon interact with the stage via fruit or pester balls? That sounds fun. Trying to work that into a moveset? I do not see it. Combine that with how limited slots are and I just do not see the appeal. Maybe if we rated this in October I would be more generous, but with only 2 slots left, with another one disappearing within the next 8 days? No dice

Officer Howard x 10


Also since people seem to be ok with the double day, here is the schedule as of now.

Day 611: Todd Snap (Pokémon)
Day 612: Conker (Conker)
Day 613: Carmen Sandiego (Where in the World Is Carmen Sandiego?)
Day 614: Yuri Lowell (Tales)
Day 615: Concept: League of Legends rep
Day 616: Rean Schwarzer (Trails/The Legend of Heroes/Dragon Slayer) and Estelle Bright (Trails/The Legend of Heroes/Dragon Slayer)
Day 617: Riptor (Killer Instinct)

Do note that I will be trying to move the days along faster so that we can for sure make it through this schedule before E3. I want to ensure we get a prediction day without leaving the schedule out to dry.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Double posting because Smashboards was down for a while.
Since Smashboards was down for a while, we are gonna have to do a double day in order to stay on pace for E3. As a result, Conker and Riptor will be a double day now.

611: Todd
612: Conker and Riptor
613: Carman Sandiago
614: Yuri Lowell
615: League Rep
616: Estelle and Rean

 

[Jomosensual]

Todd Snap

Chance 0 - Yeah, cant feel like we'll be seeing any humans fighting for the pokemon series. With how may options for fighters there are from just the Pokemon themselves I can't see them going for a normal looking dude. Pokemon Snap being back helps but not enough. Maybe in another role but for now I don't see it.

Want 20 - Nope, dont have any real need for this. Havent touched Snap but don't think i need a human for smash from the seires to fight. Pokemon has way too many good choices to do that. Leaving the door open in case he has a crazy good moveset but otherwise no, do not want.

Predictions
Conker 5.82
Riptor 3.53

Noms:
Joe Random x10

 

[BowserKing]

Todd Snap

Chance: 5%. Chances are, if we get a new Pokémon Rep, it would be an actual Pokémon (possibly with trainers) and even then, there is a huge diversity of Pokémon to choose from. Todd would promote the new Pokémon snap game, and that he also counts as a retro rep, but again, his chance is quite low.

Want: 55%. While I prefer playable Pokémon, Todd Snap would be fun to play as, and I can see him take pictures of the roaster, and the Pokéball Pokémon in addition to this, but some smashers might not want a picture taken. Overall, he would be a interesting Pokémon Rep and a decent Smash Bros rep.

Prediction: Conker (5%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Chance: 0%
Yeah this just doesn't line up with how Pokemon is represented in Smash. Franchise Spin-offs rarely, if ever, get even a minimum amount of representation in Smash to my knowledge. Snap only has some Melee trophy to its name and despite the hot new entry, it will likely stay that way. A Pokemon character for FP2 means a Pokemon from Sword/Shield. That's basically law at this point. Not to mention Todd himself is a human photographer who sits in his yellow vehicle throwing apples and gas balls. He doesn't have any Pokemon of his own and not only would that mean he's got little to work with, there just ain't a way TPC would approve of that concept in my mind. (I'll note that I don't really know about anything he does in the new game since I haven't checked it out)

Want: 1%
I'd prefer this to a SwSh mon at least. Still, I'm not in a Pokemon mood when it comes to Smash, regardless of how unique Todd would be. I've heard decent things about the new release but I don't have my mind on that currently. Maybe I would have if I played the original as a lil todd-ler but I never owned a N64 and don't see a reason to visit that. I've seen multiple playthroughs of it tho and I got the point. Okay game but not really in a need for major Smash representation. There are other Pokemon spin-off series that probably deserve it more.

Conker: 6.51%
Riptor: 2.86%
Gene x10

 

[Sari]

Todd Snap's rating was so hype that it crashed the site for several hours.

Chance: 0%
A character from a Pokemon spin-off game. He does appear in the newest Pokemon Snap but even then his role is very minimal. With both Gen 8 and the recent Gen 4 remakes existing, I don't see why they'd go for Todd. There's just so many other areas in the Pokemon realm than they could capitalize off of other than this cute little spin-off. Even ignoring all of the other Pokemon competition, I don't see why they'd use one of the remaining DLC slots to promote a spin-off character like Todd. At best, I can see Snap getting a spirit event and that's it. But then again Smash sort of has a history of not caring about the Pokemon spin-offs (see Mystery Dungeon) so we might not even get that.

Want: 0%
Yeah sorry but I never really got into the Pokemon Snap games. Even if I did, I wouldn't really want a character from it. I'm still rooting for some other Pokemon characters such as Eevee, Blaziken, or even Cinderace. Pokemon has a ton of areas they could cover that I'd rather them not waste it on a human spin-off character. On top of all of this, I'm sort of burnt out on Pokemon as a while so I'm not exactly clamoring for one to begin with.

-----

Conker chance prediction: 8.93%

Riptor chance prediction: 1.00%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x10

 

[fogbadge]

a guy who aged really well

chance: 0% yeah not happening. regardless of having debuted in the anime stuff from pokemon spin offs doesnt seem to happen in smash at all. not even pokemon go which they push a lot to the point where we have a character named go in the anime. so if there was a spin off character for pokemon i feel itd be from go. and if you were to factor in popularity mystery dungeon is the one most suggested for stuff as far as i can tell. and lastly i do not fancy the odds of any human pokemon character.

want: 70% hed be kinda cool not because he got handsome in new snap. He's a likeable enough characters and i would like to see what they could do with a pokemon snap moveset. it would be cool to have some pokemon spin off stuff and snap is a great source, though some of the areas may make for some generic stages, but never did FE any harm. so snap would probably be my top choice for spin off to include followed by a pokemon smile stage set on a huge set of teeth. so yeah not the most inducing pokemon character thered ever be but that doesnt mean he wouldnt be fun to have on the roster.

noms go to rerate tails

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Shutterbug sounds like it could be a pokemon

Chance: 0% As we all know, The Pokemon Company are much more stingier than any other company involved in Smash to the point we can't even have Shiny palettes, which is evident by the lack of Pokemon spinoff content. There's the Detective Pikachu Spirit. And that's it, no Ranger, Mystery Dungeon, Colloseum or XD, PokePark, nothing! Snap is easily one of the most beloved spinoffs in the franchise to the point people begged for a sequel and finally got it recently, but does it do enough to change TPC's mindset? My answer is no, especially as TPC doesn't seem to like humans fighting in the series

Want: Abstain, Snap's not my kind of game so I can't judge it fairly even if it may be my earliest video game memory

Junpei x10

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know enough about Pokemon Snap to know how this would work.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

OH SNAP, IT'S TODD.

Chance: 1%

It's a video game character, and has not been discomfirmed. That's all he has going for.

His cons are:
-Bascially was irrelevant for over 20 years until recently, and his game was likely developed way after FP2 was finished.
-He is a nobody in the larger Pokémon sphere, plus Pokémon reps are always well..............Pokémon, and there's no reason to think otherwise.
-No one has requested him, and if there was requests, they are too low and too late to affect the roster.
-Spin-Off content is generally scarce in Smash, he wasn't even in Melee as a Trophy, only his vehicle.

I can't think of a single reason to see this character as a serious contender.

Want: 0%

NO thanks, there are multiple Pokémon choices i would have before this one.

In fact, let me name you 20 Pokémon i would rather have:

-Meowth
-Heracross
-Scizor
-Suicune
-Eevee
-Gengar
-Decidueye
-Darkrai
-Midday Lycanroc
-Mimikyu
-Zoroark
-Pidgeott
-Pangoro
-Deoxys
-Garchomp
-Whimsicott
-Hawlucha
-Silvally
-Rillaboom
-MissingNo.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Todd Snap

Chance: 5%

I was going to go higher than this but after thinking about it, I'm leaning towards Nintendo not choosing this. While Pokemon Snap is in the limelight right now, there are several obstacles in Todd's way. First, Pokemon spinoffs do not get a lot of love in Smash. It's mostly the mainline games that the general content and the selected fighters are based on. Second, some people bring up a good point in regards to translating Pokemon Snap's gameplay into Smash's gameplay. It's hard to imagine a moveset based on taking pictures. I'm sure Sakurai could manage it but he may not even bother with it because, and this is the third reason, most of the Pokemon characters in Smash are actual Pokemon (Technically every character since even with Pokemon Trainer you are still directly controlling the Pokemon). This indicates that Nintendo would likely want either a gen 8 or 4 Pokemon or one of the Pokemon from Legends: Arceus.

Want: 10%

I like the general idea of this and a traveling Snap stage would be chill and neat. But overall I'm still hesitant on another Pokemon rep. "Give other series more attention" is my motto and even putting aside that if there had to be another Pokemon character there are still far more interesting choices. On the top of my head, Gengar, Sceptile, Garchomp, Dragapult, Toxtricity, and most of the legendaries would get me more interested.

Predictions for Conker and Riptor: 7.50% for both

Noms: Ayumi Tachibana x10

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Todd Snap

Chance: 0%

I believe Pokémon still has a shot at one more character, but it won't be Todd. The character had not been promoted prior to the game's release and hasn't been at the forefront of the franchise for quite some time (if ever really). If a non-Pokémon character were to be added into Smash I'm more apt to believe a Gym Leader, Rival, Final Four, Champion, or Professor ... basically ANYONE else outside of characters from side games.

Want: 5%

Todd would be a let down. I enjoy his character, and I'm sure the moveset would be creative ... but I think Professor Oak, Giovanni, Blue, and Cynthia would be better suited. Particularly Cynthia since she's one of the most recognizable characters in the franchise and we have two games for Sinnoh coming out soon.

No nominations for me, as I see Carmen Sandiego on the list. Big fan! :3

 

[NintenRob]

Abstain

Nominate new Zelda character x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Tell me lies, tell me sweet little lies

Chance: 3%
Okay, so I started nominating him before we knew the full extent of his role in New Snap. I assumed he would be a playable character. My bad.

Still, it's safe to say that with Snap in his name, he'd be the go-to choice for a PS rep. Gen 8 is disconfirmed due to the Spirit Event, but that doesn't mean Pokemon can't get a fighter. There's three games that I could see get the promotional focus: New Snap, the Gen 4 remakes and Arceus. Sure, remakes and spin-offs don't usually get repped, but I still think it's worth taking a look at every potential candidate for the dreaded shill pick, just so we don't get caught off guard. What does Snap have over the other two? Well, it's already out. And it has the prettiest graphics. It's probably gonna be the best received by the fanbase when all is said and done unless Arceus manages to polish the **** out of itself in the short timespan until release.

So, Todd. I think it's easy to envision him as a fighter, using his camera like Frank West and throwing food and riding the vehicle whose name I'm too lazy to look up. However another strike against him is that we've never had a human representing Pokemon and TPC has historically been reluctant to even try to market its human characters despite their massive popularity.

Want: 95%
Honestly? Todd would be the only Pokemon fighter that I wouldn't hate for being more oversaturation. He's just too different from the norm, a human character from a spin-off that's an on-rails shooter instead of... fire rabbit. And also I absolutely adore Pokemon Snap. I spent way too much time with the original, and a sequel was a pipe dream that miraculously came true.

(sidenote: in a bizarre coincidence the majority of my pipe dream games are all suddenly becoming a thing and releasing in 2021 - GnG Resurrection, the FDC remakes, the Great Ace Attorney localized, NEO TWEWY, No More Heroes 3, Psychonauts 2, SMTV, and STALKER 2 all in one year! All I need is Ghost Trick 2 and I'm going to have to start coming up with new pipe dreams)

Noms: Gunvolt X10
Wait no wrong duo
Conker prediction: 3.69%
Riptor prediction: 0.79%

 

[AirMac1]

Chance: 10%
I don’t know much about Pokémon snap, but since there’s a new Pokémon Snap game out, I think Todd Snap has a chance to get in. Not a big chance, but he still has a chance.

Want: 60%
I haven’t played any of the Pokémon Snap games, but a character that uses a camera would be cool.

Prediction:
Conker: 7%
Riptor: 1%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now.

Rate Conker and Riptor, Predict Carmen Sandiago.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

"Woah guys a naughty Nintendo game!"

Chance: 1% Conker isn't impossible, but he really has the odds against him. For starters, the company. Microsoft owns a ****ton of franchises and has multiple characters that are more requested and more well-received. Another issue is the game's content, while Smash has included stuff that the kiddos can't handle, I feel that when the entirety of Conker is crass adult humour, it gets very hard to include content that bypasses that. There's the Great Mighty Poo, the caveman with a small ****, the giant boiler with testicles, etc. Everything needs to get toned down, cameos included. And finally, fan demand. I don't see any demand for Conker at all, he didn't become the successor to Banjo's popularity, that was Crash.

Want: 0% I believe that Rare's 3D platformers have never been good and while I wholeheartedly agree that games can be judged for more than gameplay, I do not like Bad Fur Day at all, I like crass humour but thw game feels like it relies on shock value too much yet gets praise because "Oh my god a Nintendo game that said a naughty word!" and of course, pretending 64 era Rare is perfect. If this wasn't bad enough, I'd be disappointed as that'd mean no Chief, no KI and no Battletoads

Ah yes, a Microsoft owned Mick Gordon rep

Chance: 0% Yeah this is just straight up not happening, Killer Instinct has it's advantages, such as how it actually came back and did a damn good job at the revival to the point that I got convinced that anyone saying Microsoft doesn't care about classic Rare never cared about classic Rare but just a specific game. The issues however become abundantly clear, for starters, competition. Why would Riptor of all characters be given priority over Fulgore, the series mascot and why would Riptor get chosen over other MS characters such as the immensely popular Master Chief? Riptor's not even that popular of a request so there's no reason to prioritize her.

Want: 30% I highly respect Killer Instinct and while I'd vastly prefer Fulgore over Riptor, I'd just be happy to get Killer Instinct content in general, especially as Mick Gordon's work belongs in more fighting games

Junpei x20

 

[Sari]

Some songs for today's characters:

Conker

Spoiler: Conker Music

Riptor

Spoiler: Killer Instinct Theme

 

[DaUsername]

Abstain Todd.
Conker prediction: 5%
Riptor prediction: 2%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Inue Houji]

Todd Snap
Abstaining.(1 hour rule).

Predictions
Conker: 0.5%
Riptor: 0.1%

Nominations
Ratchet & Clank x5

 

[Pillow]

Rare Boys
Chance - 1% (Conker) 0% (Ripter)
So at the end of the day Rare is still owned by Microsoft and if we get a Microsoft character not named Master Chief then I'll eat my sock. Conker does get a chance rating above 0 as his game is a cult classic, but what makes Bad Fur Day so beloved is all the content that Smash would censor out anyway leaving us with an angry mute squirrel. Killer Instinct on the other hand isn't an unheard of series, but neither was it very popular, and Riptor isn't even the most likely candidate from KI.

Want - 0%
I liked Bad Fur Day, but again, I don't want to see a censored Conker. Without the vulgarity, he's just not that interesting to me. And while seeing a realistic Dinosaur in Smash would be kinda funny, with only 2 spots left my tolerance for these kind of one off joke characters has gotten lower.

Noms:
xMax Miku

 

[fogbadge]

abstain on both. i know a little about conker but not enough to do a rating, no idea who the other is. nom tails x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Tableleg
Chance: 0.1%
Similarly to Banjo-Kazooie, Conker is the protagonist of a Rare developed N64 3D platformer that still seems beloved today. After Mircosoft aquired the IP, a remake for the Xbox was released. Those games are basically his whole legacy. Now it took quite a while for the bear and bird to get into Smash and I'm not seeing the red squirrel join so soon after. He's from a western game and I can't find info on Japanese popularity so that's already a red flag. He faces some stiff competition too. I doubt we'll get another Xbox rep but there are certainly more likely options. Of course Conker's biggest issue is that his big game isn't exactly for good boys and girls. Game features gore, feces, sexual imagery and whatnot, which Nintendo and Sakurai would likely stay away from The IP has some family-friendly games but yeah, those are not representative of what Conker is known for. Yall remember Young Conker for the Microsoft HoloLens? Or the GameBoy Colour game? I don't think a lot of people do. They instead know Conker for the greedy, horny, cussing, drunk, urinating, gun-shooting rodent he is depicted as in Bad Fur Day and instead of toning it all down and mess with what people liked about the game, I just see them not taking the risk.

Want: Abstaining

Jurrasic Park
Chance: 0%
Killer Instinct did have a revival in 2013 but honestly its been quite a while since then were I think you can say the franchise is dormant again. (Now watch a sequel getting announced at E3) Anyway, I'm not seeing this happen also. Competition from other Xbox series, one in particular, just seems too difficult to get around. Riptor herself isn't even the face of the franchise and would just be a bit random, I feel. I can't see the argument for her being one of the final two characters.

Want: Abstaining

Carmen San Diego: 2.42%
Gene x10

 

[BowserKing]

Conker

Chance: 5%. First of all, Banjo and Kazooie and Steve being in the fighter’s passes has reduced Conker’s chance of appearing in the game. With that said, there is a slim chance of being a Mii Costume and a brighter chance of being playable in the sequel.

Want: 80%. Meanwhile, Conker would totally be a fun character to play as, and I can see him, Banjo and Kazooie and Diddy Kong reunite with one another and gang up on the likes of King K.Rool. Overall, Conker would totally be a great Smash bros rep.

Riptor

Chance: 5% Just like Conker, Banjo and Kazooie and Steve’s inclusion has that chance reduced to almost nothing. There could be a chance for spirits, but even then, I see Master Chief get in first.

Want: 70%.I have not played Dark Souls, but Riptor would be fun to play as, and we do need more dinosaurs in Smash Bros. I can see Riptor fight Yoshi in Kongo Jungle 64. Overall, Riptor would make a good Smash Bros rep, perhaps even more.

Prediction: Carmen (10%) and Gex (5%)

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[Sari]

Conker

Chance: 1%
We got Steve in this pass who is owned by Microsoft. And Conker is owned by Rare who is owned by Microsoft. I don't see them doubledipping with the same company in one pass. Even if we were to get another Microsoft character, I think Master Chief would have priority. He's just much bigger to the point where I could see him crashing the internet. Conker doesn't have the amount of fan support that Banjo did plus his series has been dead for a long time (not counting whatever the heck Microsoft has tried to do with him for the last decade).

Want: 90%
I'm really surprised we have never rated Conker until now. He might be a gross and perverted little rodent but at the same time he'd feel right at home in Smash. At the same time, he'd also feel completely out of place when compared to the other family friendly/serious characters. Really though it's hard for me to see Conker getting into Smash and not enjoying him (unless they went with one of his... other designs in recent years). I think Conker can be represented well in Smash without being overly censored. Like of course he's not going to have a pissing attack, but the Smash 64 Remix mod did a good job at representing him for the most part. When it comes to Microsoft characters he's probably my most wanted.

-----

Abstaining on Riptor.

-----

Carmen Sandiego chance prediction: 8.95%

Nominations:
Mii Costume: 2B x15 (via extra noms)

 

[GoodGrief741]

I'm sorry I missed the noms update, between the faster days, the site crashing and me being busy I just couldn't get around to it. Expect calcs tonight though!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: From Software rep pre-Todd Snap

Corvo Attano x235
Tetra x230
Meat Boy x225
Junpei (Zero Escape) x225
Senator Armstrong x220
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Louie x185
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x185

200 - 151

Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x165
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x160

150 - 101

Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x140
[Rerate] Tails x140
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x128
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x115
[Rerate] Officer Howard x115
Gunvolt x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Garchomp x92
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Ratchet & Clank x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Demi-Fiend x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55
[Rerate] Gene x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Reimu x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Octoling x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x10
Ori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Firebrand x1

Meat Boy and Junpei find a way past Senator Armstrong and are now tied for third place. Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku dances into the fray, tied with Sackboy and Louie for sixth place.

Gunvolt and Concept: New Zelda character shoot past 100 noms.

Gene kicks into the over 50 nom club.

Joining the list for that day are Ori and a rerate of Ayumi Tachibana, each with 10 noms!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Todd Snap pre-Conker/Riptor

Corvo Attano x235
Junpei (Zero Escape) x235
Tetra x230
Meat Boy x225
Senator Armstrong x225
Sackboy x185
[Rerate] Louie x185
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x185

200 - 151

Kaede Akamatsu x170
Stage: Bowser's Castle x167
Boss: Rayquaza x165
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x160

150 - 101

[Rerate] Tails x150
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x128
Echo (Bowser) x128
Mii Costume: 2B x125
[Rerate] Officer Howard x125
Gunvolt x120
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Garchomp x97
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Ratchet & Clank x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Magolor x65
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x65
Demi-Fiend x65
[Rerate] Gene x65
Ghirahim x60
Gooigi x60
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

[Rerate] Agumon x50
Plague Knight x50
Springtrap x50
Concept: Crazy Taxi character x50
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Reimu x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Captain Charlie (Pikmin) x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
[Rerate] Ayumi Tachibana x20
[Rerate] Earthworm Jim x16
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Echo: Ms. Pac-Man x15
Octoling x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Ori x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Siris (Infinity Blade) x5
[Rerate] Phoenix Wright x5
Concept: Tsukihime rep x5
[Rerate] Eggman x5
Joe Random (MLB: The Show) x5
Firebrand x1

Junpei outsmarts Meat Boy and Tetra, ties for first place against Corvo Attano. Senator Armstrong catches up with Meat Boy and the pair duke it out for fourth place.

A challenger approaches! It's Joe Random, with 5 noms!

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about either.

Nominations: Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x5 (or is it 10 due to the double day?)

 

[GoodGrief741]

Now for my ratings

Conker

Chance: 1%
That 1% would be a 0 if Riptor wasn't here for perspective. I don't think there's gonna be another Microsoft character. And if there were he'd have to compete against Master Chief. If we take every other Microsoft character out of the equation and focus only on Rare I'd say it's Conker's spot to lose but he's far from unopposed with the likes of our recently rated Gruntilda, the Battletoads and Joanna Dark being strong candidates for several reasons.

I don't think implementation is a concern, much like Metal Gear and Persona (or even moreso) you can take Conker out of context and make him look completely inoffensive.

Want: 87%
Conker's Bad Fur Day is just an absolute classic. It's too bad it never got a sequel because there was so much potential but alas. I do have some concerns with how he'd be implemented. Like I said above I think if Nintendo and Sakurai wanted him they could totally have him in a way that's harmless, but that doesn't necessarily mean it'd be fitting for the character. Still, he totally deserves it and I'd like his inclusion so much that I doubt I'd mind if he was toned down.

Riptor

Double zeroes. Riptor is a character in Killer Instinct. Killer Instinct is another influential and iconic Rare IP that's now owned by Microsoft. This again means that they have to compete with the entire Microsoft library. With said library already having a fighter in this Pass. I'd put Killer Instinct in a good spot for getting a fighter if Microsoft wasn't a factor, slightly under the 3 I mentioned above. But... why Riptor? Riptor's just one of the bunch. Even missed KI Gold. If the series got a character it'd probably be Orchid or Fulgore or Jago.

As for want, I love Killer Instinct. I'd probably derive some enjoyment from seeing it in Smash no matter the fighter. And Riptor is, and this is important, a freaking dinosaur. But it's just such a random pick.

Noms: Gunvolt x10
Carmen prediction: a score too low for her majesty

(or is it 10 due to the double day?)

'Tis not.

 

[chocolatejr9]

'Tis not.

There's a joke I can make here. Something about an F?

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Riptor
0.01% Chance
Look, I am gonna be blunt. Riptor likely would not be the KI character we get. We would probably end up with Fulgore or someone else that is more iconic. Riptor is a cool character, but KI has plenty of characters that would probably get in before Riptor.

Also KI is owned by Microsoft. I already made it clear that I think double dips are unlikely, but Riptor suffers even more than others because the competition is so fierce. Even outside of KI you have Conker, Dragonborn, Doomslayer, and Master Chief. That is extinction level competition.

20% Want

KI has an awesome OST. This is basically from that alone. I would prefer Fulgore since imo he is the KI rep. This is kind of like rating Chun Li before rating Ryu in my eyes. Would I like it? Maybe, but at least in my eyes something has to come first.

Conker

0.1% Chance

Conker got a surge of support after Banjo…and that is the problem. Conker honestly got his support way too late for it to matter, and even then it is not that much. Is it respectable? Yeah, I expect Conker to probably hit top 20 in want. But it is not the fervent demand that Banjo had and it is far too late. Now if this was Smash 6 speculation, I would say Conker would be someone to keep a decent eye on.

But this is Smash Ultimate speculation. Sadly for the squirrel, he has issues. First off, Conker’s Bad Fur Day did not release in Japan. Conker himself would not arrive in Japan until Conker Live and Reloaded (which in my opinion is a travesty that missed everything that made the original Conker good and replaced its fun multiplayer mode with one that…was not). While the Banjo games were not exactly smash hits in Japan, at least they were there. But even more pressing is Microsoft’s competition. Bethesda, Killer Instinct, and Master Chief all loom over the squirrel. He has a better chance being a table leg to be honest.

100% Want

God, I love the original Conker's Bad Fur Day. Some of my fondest memories from middle school were just playing Conker at my house with my friends. We came up with stupid names for the weapons, it was a blast. The game is a ton of fun and gives me all sorts of warm and fuzzy memories. I would love for Conker to get into Smash, no matter how unlikely he is. It is one of those "never ever" characters for me. I genuinely think Conker has a snowball's chance in hell to ever be in Smash. But if he was I would be elated. Honestly, even if Conker's Bad Fur Day is not a perfect game, it is a blast and one of my favorite N64 games.

Kaede Akamatsu x 20, lets throw a wrench into the top 7

 

[Jomosensual]

Riptor

Chance 0 - So there's 3 big issues standing in the way here. First, it's that Riptor isn't the most popular character in the series. That would likely be Fulgore. Steve also got in Smash from Microsoft already and we really don't know if double dipping is a thing or not. Then finally there's the issue that she'd have to get in over Master Chief, which I very much don't see being a thing. So yeah, there's not a ton here for Riptor, even if she is cool.

Want 100 - So Killer Instinct and I have a bit of a history. Myself, Warpenguin, and a bunch of my cousins used to play KI at my grandparents house when we were younger. None of us were any good obviously but the game was quite fun and was my first real experience in fighting games outside of playing Melee when I was like 5 at my cousins house. I don't remember if Riptor was even in it, probably should have just nommed KI in general, which I think has a shot. Riptor is really cool though so I tossed her up. I really miss playing the series though and would love to see it get into Smash.


Abstaining on Conker as I don't really have much to say about him

Predictions
Carmen Sandiego - 5.64

Noms:
Joe Random x10

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Gonna abstain on Riptor, though his extinction-level competition really puts him in a bad spot, and his lack of fan demand doesn't help either.

Conker

Chance: 0.5% - Conker's chances are having quite a bad fur day, I'd say. Microsoft is loaded with competition, Master Chief in particular being a massive obstacle, along with Dragonborn by technicality. Conker, unlike Riptor, IS more well-known outside of die-hard Rareware circles than Riptor, but fan demand is still something he's starving for. No doubt this is due to the....direction...Rareware decided to take his series in. The alcohol, sex, and dark overload are something Nintendo wouldn't want their game associated with, which is a death blow given it's what Conker's identity became, along with it resulting in the death of his franchise. Microsoft has tried a couple of small things with Conker since their acquisition, but none of them really went anywhere, so I don't see it being given priority by the higher ups at Microsoft. It could "sneak in" in the way Banjo-Kazooie did, but the odds of that are slim. Plus Conker, unlike Banjo-Kazooie, likely has no Japanese popularity, as Japanese audiences are typically turned off by the kind of humor Conker fuels itself by, and I don't think the CatDog fanbase is the hot demographic Nintendo is targeting.

Want: 0% - Yeah, I cannot say I'd want Conker at all if they decided to go by his Bad Fur Day depiction. I am really not a fan of grimdark, feel-bad humor that makes up the current identity of Conker, and I don't think I want to see p****** attacks or baby dinosaur demonic sacrifices in Smash any time soon, if ever. Granted, if they DID include this depiction of Conker he'd be greatly watered down, though even then, the implications are still there. Now, if it were pre-Bad Fur Day Conker, he would be kinda cool, as a character that primarily uses a slingshot, and Diddy Kong Racing references in his moveset are another fun way to round it out. Though more than likely any fan demand at all would be to his current depiction, and it's just not something I would want to see in Smash. A lot of the newcomer reveal trailers in Ultimate are already bad enough (I really don't get why people are praising the fact that characters are getting killed), we really don't need to multiply it by ten...


Nominations:
[Rerate] Louie x10

Predictions:
Carmen Sandiego - 2.84% - Conditions haven't changed much for her, but Nintendo's lack of relationship with her owner isn't going to lead to promising ratings despite her surprise Japanese popularity.

 

[DanganZilla5]

Prepare for some savagery. And make it double! Cause we are rating a foul-mouthed squirrel and a literal dinosaur (That's the joke that I randomly made up as I woke up this morning)

Conker chance: 3%
Riptor chance: 0.01%

I'm gonna talk about these two at the same time since I have some similar things to say. But first, a paragraph for each of them.

Conker's Bad Fur Day is a classic N64 game. It's beloved and still gets referenced and discussed to this day. As for the adult humor, I don't think it's a huge deal. Conker would certainly be toned down a lot, but I think they could get away with some references to toilet humor and him saying some minor curses like "dam". Basically I think they could get around that situation without completely getting rid of his charm. What concerns me is the fact that apparently the game didn't release in Japan until the inferior Xbox version. That makes me question how aware Japan is of the game. Also, it's likely that the surge of demand that Conker got after Banjo was too late to be a factor and it's not a giant amount of demand anyway. There is also the fact that his game never got a sequel. It only got a port to the Xbox and was included in Rare Replay but that just says to me that Microsoft isn't that interested in the I.P which unfortunately means it hasn't been flourishing which would certainly help its chances.

Speaking of Rare Replay and other Rare I.Ps, let's talk about KIller Instinct. It's a badass game that became notable for its long string of combos and it got a couple sequels and a reboot in 2013. I do think it's arguably a darkhorse pick. The problem with this particular rating is that we are rating Riptor. I don't think there is a clear frontrunner for the series, but candidates like Fulgore and a few others make more sense. I don't think there is anything that makes Riptor stand out from the crowd.

So, where do these two fall in the grand scheme of things? Well as a reminder I believe that we won't be getting double dips. That is what kills these scores for me. I get that it's a fan rule, blah, blah but so far it has held up well and the fact that we had Banjo and Steve separated by different passes says something. And even if I believe that another Microsoft rep is coming, I would place my bets on Master Chief who made it to the front cover of Famitsu. Plus there are a few other Rare characters like Joanne Dark and Battletoads that act as competition too. BTW I've seen some people bring up Bethesda as a factor. Why? The acquisition happened after the pass was decided so they shouldn't even be a factor. But overall, I don't think Riptor is happening, but Conker has a minute chance. I just think Nintendo has priorities elsewhere.

_____________________

Want for Conker: 20%

I've played some of Conker's Bad Fur Day and there was a Twitch streamer that I used to watch whom I saw play a large portion of the game. The first thing I'll say is that the humor is hit-or-miss for me. I like some of the humor like the Great Mighty Poo who is charming in a weird way but some of the humor that puts other characters in bad situations and puts them down is not for me and is mean-spirited. Other than that though, the gameplay is fun and there is some potential for neat stages and movesets. It's just that I'm not really feeling this for Smash. I would not be opposed to it but I guess it's because Microsoft has so many other candidates that I'm more attached to that makes me feel hesitant towards this.

_______________________

Want for Riptor: 70%

I'll agree that Riptor would be kind of random but hey it's a dinosaur and it's Killer Instinct so I'll take it. I really enjoy the 2013 game and I just think Killer Instinct is awesome. Mick Gordon really needs to have his music in Smash as it's a masterpiece. I highly enjoy the series for it's meaty sound effects that make every hit sound impactful, the memorable character designs, and the over the top combos that look ultra fancy and cool. Any Killer Instinct content would be greatly appreciated.

Prediction: Carmen Sandiego - 6%

Noms: Ayumi Tachibana x10

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

Well, there he is, Conker The Squirrel.

Chance: 1%

Conker the Squirrel is the protagonist of his eponymous series, starring first as a racer cameo in Diddy Kong Racing, where he was a more cheerful and kid-friendly character, because of a shift between development. Conker was once meant to be a kid friendly platformer ala Mario 64, but once Banjo Kazooie got released, the development team of Conker (which was different from the one that made Banjo) decided to give it an overhaul in the form Bad Fur Day, an M-rated game filled with swearing, violence (from splapstick to graphic) and sexual innuendo. One could argue that this would make him a no-no for Nintendo, but we got Bayonetta, a sadistic overly-sexualized witch who tortures angels. really the only one difference between the two is that one is a little raunchier than the other, and Conker doesn't have to worry about being censored like Bayo was, nor other "tamer" characters like Pyra and Mythra. There's also Castlevania, whose games while usually not overly graphic, are also M-Rated sometimes (plus the Netflix series, which is FILLED with graphic gore and.......................that...........Alucard scene)

To pretend that this would would be a killing blow for Conker is wrong in my eyes, Conker is also caracterized by his cartoony appereance and hammerspace antics ala Looney Tunes (evidence of this is the Context Sensitive Pad, which gives him the ability of doing whatever the game feels its appropiate, like pulling off a Flamethrower, turning into an Anvil, and many, many, MANY other things) So i don't think the banning of (realistic) Guns is an issue, since he has MULTIPLE weapons (Bazookas, Granades since Snake uses them too, plus the more out-there Frying Pan, Baseball Bat, a Flamethrower and even a Chainsaw) and neither is the lack of swearing or alcohol (Conker actually is one of the characters who swears the least)

So what is in Conker's way?
-Being basically a nobody in Japan, the REAL death sentence in my eyes, hell the original N64 version didn't release in Japan until Rare Replay!
-He is an obscure character in the grander scheme of things, which means he is not that popular in Smash circles or general gaming sphere.
-His franchise has been dead since the mid-2000's, and the only other thing aside from ports has been.................Young Conker, we don't talk about that.
-Both a KI rep and Master Chief seem more probable (i will abstain on Riptor, but i do see a greater argument for him and his franchise) due to their larger status in the game industry.

Yeah, not gonna happen.

Want: 70%

Conker gives me such a complicated feeling. When i was younger, the idea of playing this M-Rated Cartoon game was just fascinating to me, i remember playing hours and hours of the multiplayer, and despite me never beating the game (i got far until the Caveman section) i must admit it was interesting and quite fun for a story, although being honest.....


....i think Conker would have been better off releasing as Twelve Tales. As a product, Conker Bad Fur Day is a much more interesting thing to analyze and experience, but as a game to play and enjoy in a general sense, i think Conker 64 was just the better option, it looked more fun, more entertaining, and it would have probably been a major mainstream success and would have meant the series would have been going and would have been a serious contender in Smash like Banjo was (at least for the Ballot days), rather than being this cult classic that is a fasciating experience, but not that great of a game (at least single player) and once you remove the raunchy humor of the game you get a game that is nowhere as fun to play as Banjo Kazooie, and one could argue that a watered down Conker would be like Mortal Kombat without Fatalities and Gore or Senran Kagura without all the Boobs And Arse and in-your-face Sex Appeal Fanservice, so what Could Conker bring to Smash? Well there's one thing:


It would probably be the closest thing we could have to a Looney Tunes character in the roster. With that angle, it goes from a "eh?" choice to a "HOLY **** WHY DIDN'T I THINK ABOUT THIS"? choice to me. Sure, Conker's Bad Furd Days was more "South Park with Looney Tunes Lookalikes", but this idea is still solid to me. A Funny cartoon animal that breaks the fourth wall filled with Hammerspace nonesense? After the game being filled with "Serious" and "Cool" characters like Sephiroth, Terry, Hero and Joker, having this wacky cartoon character pulling off basball bats and frying pans like it was something out of Tom and Jerry is just great, and would be a breath of fresh air, even if we lack a certain ingredient of raunchyness that made BFD the cult-classic that it is, i think it would be a good direction to take Conker in Smash for Sakurai, i mean it's better than to Turn Ganondorf from a sword-weilding Warlock to a knockoff of a character with made-up moves.

A Squirrel who is a Toonforce User? Definetly far more interesting thatn most roster choices left in my eyes.

Even with all the mixed feelings Conker gives me, i can't deny he is proof of Rareware's charm and style that no other developer can recreate. And yes, i would have him over Master Chief, but if i listed every single character that i would rather have over MC i would be here until Covid becomes irrelevant.

Oh and his Smash Remix moveset is lit.

 

[Lionfranky]

Conker

Chance: 0%

His original game wasn't even released in Japan. He isn't even that popular or famous in west either. He doesn't have Banjo level of support. Sure... Conker game was released in Japan via Rare Replay... guess which Xbox series fared best there? Conker wasn't even successful compared to Banjo either. I don't see why either Microsoft or Nintendo would pursue this squirrel when there is a much bigger fish. Not to mention, Crash who has much bigger support overlaps with Conker.

Want: 0%

No thanks. I haven't played any Conker game, so I have no attachment toward this series. Conker supporters I contacted put bad taste in my mouth. I know someone had nerve to say Conker is more famous than Halo in Japan. No offense to genuine and calm supporters. Banjo is enough for furry platformer. If they had to pick another one, I would go with Crash. And it's no secret that I'm an avid Chief supporter. So please forgive me if I sound bit aggressive, but with only two slots left, I want something way more epic to fill the remaining slots.

Riptor

Abstain on both

Others already covered up what I wanted to say. Too much competition. Not enough fan demand

 

[Yiptap]

I need to make up for lost time yesterday!

Furry Porn: The Game
Chance: 2%
Let's get the obvious outta the way: Microsoft already had a character this pass. I'm a firm believer in no company double dip in a pass, looking at the patterns we've already had. Plus, Rare had a character in the last pass (Banjo and Kazooie), though that's not saying much. Conker's also got a hell of a competition with the Microsoft champ, Master Chief. I also want to bring up the argument of "NOOOOO! CONKER IS TOO INAPPROPIATE!!111!!!" That's a pretty invalid argument, considering we got Bayonetta. Plus, a child probably couldn't tell Conker is a drunk, swearing squirrel who fights giant pieces of crap. However, the fatal blow to Conker is the fact that his 100% child friendly game wasn't released in Japan until Rare freaking Replay! I'm pretty sure that a character needs more Japanese presence than what Conker has.

Want: 40%
I have no attachment to Conker or any of Rare whatsoever. But Conker looks funny, like that one giant piece of **** from the same game. Nothing that I'm for, but nothing I'm against either.

Abstain on Riptor. I have no idea who or what Riptor is.

Noms: Meat Boy x All

 

[AirMac1]

Conker:
Chance: 20%
If Rare does get another rep in Smash, I do see it being Conker. That said, I don’t see Rare getting another rep in Smash at the moment.

Want: 80%
I’ve never played Conker’s Bad Fur Day, but I’ve seen clips from the game, and Conker seems like a cool character for Smash.

Riptor:
I’m gonna abstain, since I don’t know much about the Killer Instinct series of games.

Prediction: Carman Sandiego 0.5%

Noms: Concept: Crazy Taxi rep xMAX