Bill Rizer
Chance - 3%
While this may come across as a really low rating to some, the fact that there are so many plausible characters remaining and only two characters left in the pass means this is actually a fairly high score from me.
Given the sheer number of iconic NES platformers, it's truly astonishing how many are in Smash Bros. Really, just look at the list of platformers from that time period: Super Mario Bros 1, 2, & 3, Donkey Kong, Mega Man, Metroid, Kirby, Castlevania, Kid Icarus, Ice Climbers. All of those games are in Smash.
But there are some notable omissions. Taking a look at the NES Classic, the platforming games of note which lack a playable character in Smash are few and far between: Ninja Gaiden, Bubble Bobble, Ghosts 'n Goblins...and Contra.
Bubble Bobble isn't discussed much mostly because of its ownership (it's a Taito game, now owned by Square Enix) and because its fallen out of the public eye. Arthur from Ghosts 'n Goblins is a Mii costume, taking him out of the running. Naturally, Ryu Hayabusa has been a topic of major discussion as of late, with his series continuing to this day and with his status as Koei Tecmo's mascot.
But Contra has been strangely overlooked in the speculation scene. While the series hasn't been quite as successful in the modern day as Ninja Gaiden, it's unquestionably iconic, and its ownership lies with Konami, who already has characters in Smash, a potentially good sign for how legal negotiations might go. The characters are recognizable, would be easy to implement into Smash Bros., and would be unique, effectively acting as our first character from a shooter.
Simply put, the main obstacle that Bill faces is competition. Third party possibilities are at least in the dozens, and there are very few characters left to add to the game. If Sakurai were to decide that he wanted to add another iconic third party character from an NES platformer, Bill faces stiff competition from Ryu Hayabusa, whose series is still going strong and who fills a similar niche in that respect. If Sakurai wanted to add an iconic shooter character, he faces competition from Master Chief, Doom Guy, and more. Further, it's not Sakurai himself choosing characters this time around; it's Nintendo themselves. Nintendo has strikingly little incentive to request Bill.
That said, Bill has a very, very good chance if we end up getting another Smash game in the future. His credentials are very good, and he's right up Sakurai's alley. But he may have to wait until then.
Want - Abstain
I have very little personal attachment to Contra. I recognize that the games are iconic, and I don't think he would be an unworthy addition, but I don't particularly care about the series either.
Nominations - Echo: Ms. Pac-Man (all noms that I have)