Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[ShotoStar]

The Legendary Super Saiyan, Ally to good, Nightmare to you (Goku, DBZ):

Chance: 100% 0.001%
Goku is..... not getting in. There's no ****ing way he does, Zilch. Zero. But, For the fun of it lets look at what he could have going for and against him since Goku deserves that much, right? Let's start with the good cause if we start with the bad this would end in a single sentence.

What all does Goku have going for him? Well; First of all, He's insanely iconic. Maybe not to Gaming specifically but certainly to the overall media sphere and may be the single most iconic anime character after all for the longest time Dragon Ball was the single highest selling anime/manga series, at least until around the late 00s-early 2010s (link) before One Piece eventually caught up to it.

Though, Sales aren't everything and while One Piece may be the best selling Manga series nowadays Dragon Ball totally has the bigger cultural impact in the broad sense as can be seen, for example, throughout countless references to it in other media. Just look on YouTube at all the "Dragon Ball references in ___" compilation videos.

Dragon Ball is one of, if not the most immediately recognizable anime series to the broader general audience and has an influence that even matches up to series such as Mario, Pokemon, Sonic, So on so forth. And the DBZ games? They do fairly well for licensed games such as the Dragon Ball Xenoverse games which even get DLC till today with more planned for even fall of this year according to the wiki (link) which is especially impressive considering Xenoverse 2 came out in 2016, five years ago when not even Ultimate has that sorta lifespan and considering the "Rule of Diminishing Returns" it should mean the games have a fairly big audience and is doing fairly well.

And DBFZ? Well, That's obvious. DBFZ is one of the bigger traditional fighting games out there currently which has a dedicated, loyal fanbase of active players and an equally dedicated if not more competitive scene. Dragon Ball is one of those rare licensed video game series which constantly seems to do rather well and has games that are surprisingly good quality, considering. Not to mention Namco-Bandai has the license for DB games last time I checked so it should be a whole lot easier for them to get someone like Goku over someone like Mickey, Popeye, Tony Hawk, etc. etc. if they were to get a "4th party" character.

Iconic, Influential, Popular, DB's games do fairly well considering they're licensed games, etc. etc. He does have stuff going for him but...

Bad news? Sakurai and co. ABSOLUTELY HAVE NO PLANS OF PUTTING HIM (OR ANY "4TH PARTY" CHARACTER) IN SMASH. to which he has stated ad nauseam (link) (link).

Plus, Goku while he would be absolutely hilarious and I would personally be down for him he'd go against Sakurai and co.'s vision on what Smash Bros is. Smash Bros is supposed to be a celebration of gaming, as Sakurai has said a few times before. Goku while having games, games that even do quite well, is simply not a video game character and therefore goes against everything Sakurai has set out to do with the Smash Bros series.

Could his opinion change? Yeah, That's how humans work. Everyone can change their mind but until then I'd advise against actually believe Goku has any realistic chance, although I don't think anyone legitimately believes Goku has a chance at all let alone a good one. Goku just ain't happening fellas, I'm sorry.


Want: 80%
That said I think Goku would be absolutely hilarious, without question. Goku would be such a kino and based pick and it'd blow everyone away I think it'd seriously be hilarious to see everyone freak out and I'd be excited myself cause DBZ was a childhood show of mine, the first anime I've ever watched so I have that history with Goku.

He's a fun character with a really fun personality that'd mesh well with the cast of Smash, His sheer existence in Smash Bros would be absolutely ridiculous, surreal and hilarious, He'd just be really kino and I'd love it. Only hold-offs I have with him getting in is two things, just two things;

Fist would be that with him getting in that'd open the door for other "4th party" characters to get in which would probably kill any chance of any gaming characters I want in to get in due to that door being just too wide of a thing to open and most of the characters I want are rather niche and already have a very small chance of happening as is (Geno, a WTC character, Reimu, Kiryu, etc. etc.) and at least for the former two that'd instantly be a death knell I think.

Second would be while at first I think it'd be funny that it'd throw speculation into absolute chaos and it would be funny to see everyone freak out and try and wrap their heads around it, it'd.... also get tiring after awhile. After the sheer hilarity of Goku being in and speculation going ape**** in response wares off it'd just permanently damage the speculation scene as a whole. It'd be a permanent dent in the wellness of speculation and the health of the community.

Besides those two hold-offs I'm absolutely down for Goku in Smash and that's only like a hold-off worthy of 20% percent, most of me would fully welcome Goku in cause within himself it'd be hilarious and a really based, kino pick.

Nominations:
Beatrice (Umineko) x30

 

[Lionfranky]

Not to mention Namco-Bandai has the license for DB games last time I checked so it should be a whole lot easier for them to get someone like Goku over someone like Mickey, Popeye, Tony Hawk, etc. etc. if they were to get a "4th party" character.

It's not that simple. That's like saying Warner Brothers can just ask Sony and put Spiderman into their DC movies. Sony still has the license to Spiderman movie, but they can't just lend Spiderman to any studio because that would be breaking contract with Disney/Marvel. Technically, Mickey should be easier to obtain than Goku because Mickey is soley owned by Disney, not separated by different right holders from different regions. Disney Japan still falls under Disney, but Viz Media and Funimation are independent from Shueisha. More right holders = more difficulty. Simple as that.

 

[Pillow]

I hate April Fools. Abstain on Goku.

Noms:
xMax FromSoft

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now. Hope Yall enjoyed April Fools.

Today we have the Third Party Double dip. To clarify, this is whether a third party will get two characters in this pass. Be it a second Square, second Microsoft, or FP 10 and 11 are from the same company.

For tomorrow, predict Agent 47 from Hitman.

 

[Sari]

Some songs relating to some popular 3rd party candidates from Microsoft and Square Enix, the two third party companies who already have characters in this pass.

Microsoft

Spoiler: Microsoft Music

Square Enix

Spoiler: Square Enix Music

 

[Pillow]

Double Dip

Chance - 80%
I'm guessing SNK wasn't mentioned because we just rated their chances though it seems like a waste of 2 days. I'm an avid believer that the company a character comes from doesn't matter, it's the characters themselves that do. There's a lot of prominent characters that exist from Square, Microsoft, and SEGA (if you can't Joker for this). From Square we have Lara Croft, 2B, Neku, Crono, and other Final Fantasy characters. From Microsoft we have Master Chief and I guess the Bethesda boys Doomslayer and Dovahkin. From Sega we have more Sonic characters, Kiryu Kazuma, and Arle Nadja.I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these characters pop up in the last 2 slots.

as for the the last 2 slots being a character from the same company, before I could only see it for Capcom, but after the last set of mii costumes I'm kind of down on Capcom characters chances, so I'll just say it's probably not happening. I'm not really feeling double characters from Namco, KT, Ubisoft or Activision either, though I suppose I'd give Namco the biggest chances both for Smash association and having the largest pantheon of significant characters left in the pool.

Want - 100%
I'd be happy with literally all of the characters I mentioned under my Chance section. Kiryu would be my most wanted here, but they're all great picks. There's not much else to say because it's a pretty broad topic today.


Noms:
xMax FromSoft

 

[TCT~Phantom]

The Double Dip

16.1% Chance

Let me break down each of these scenarios.

Microsoft: Yeah look, Microsoft is head and shoulders the one that I could see getting something. The two main ways this happens is either through Master Chief or Dovakhin. Microsoft has hyped up the idea of Chief in Smash, to the point where at least for the next game, or if we somehow get another pass, Chief's stock shoots through the moon. I could easily see Chief showing up as a post pass bonus to boot with his own Challenger Pack. But his chances for FP2 look a bit hazy. Dovakhin also seems to be in the running, since unlike Doomguy he has not been deconfirmed to heck and back.

Square: Look, Square getting another character would be weird. The one that makes the most sense is Neku, but even then I would give that like a 2-3% on a good day. That is how much legwork Microsoft is carrying this concept. Lara Croft imo would make much more sense... if we did not already get a huge Square character. Unless we get something smaller like TWEWY or Chrono Trigger conent, I would not bet on this part.

Anyone Else: I could dream that FP10-11 is Crash and Spyro, but I doubt it hard. The odds that we get two characters from the same company back to back is also something that I do not have much faith in.

So yeah, Microsoft characters stand tall although I think they are not the most likely, Square does not look hot, and lol we are not getting 10 and 11 from the same company.

Abstain Want

Rating concepts like this is hard. It is worded so vague that I would not know if I would indeed be satisfied with the end product. If we got Neku, Crash and Spyro, or Master Chief? Yeah, I would be down. But I would not say whole heartedly that I would be down with any double dip unconditionally. I do also have the slight gut reservation against it, mainly because I worry companies might try to leverage it in the future. Oh, you want X character? Only if Y character comes too. I know that might be unlikely, but still. Overall, I just do not have enough info to make an educated guess.

Agent 47... 2.7% Chance, people will take him out.

 

[BowserKing]

Third Party Double Dip

Chance: 0%. Yeah I do not see this happening. Especially since having a second Square Enix Rep would be quite expensive, with spirit events not helping matters. Microsoft is quite a powerhouse, but I don’t see them getting a second rep in this Fighter’s pass. Nintendo is the exception since Smash Bros is Nintendo owned, even then it’s would be the sub company’s like Game Freak and Hal Labratory that is more likely to get a rep, at least in Nintendo's group. Never mind other Third Parties like Sega, Namco, Activision, Ubisoft and Way Foward have yet to have a fighter in this fighter’s pass.

Want: Depends on which franchise, but 50%. If we were to get a second Square Enix Rep in this fighter’s pass, I hope it’s the protagonist from E.V.O: Search for Eden (called creature for simplicity), it’s moveset might take it a while. If it’s Microsoft, then Master Chief is the biggest bet, especially since the people who worked on Halo wants Master Chief in Smash. But I prefer more Nintendo characters (Fawful, Midna, Sylux, Bandanna Dee, Krystal, Lugia, Porky, Viridi, Issac or a retro rep), more Sega fighter’s (Knuckles and Nights) , more Namco (Kloana) and new company’s like Activison (Crash), Ubisoft (Ray-Man) and Way Foward (Shantae) got in (I know most are mostly unlikely, but I can dream). Overall, I think, while it would be nice for a second third company rep, I think it’s better if we get more diversity.

Prediction: Agent 47: 5%

Noms: 5 for Stage: Bowser’s Castle

 

[Perkilator]

3rd Party double dip
Chance: 20%
I’m not too sure. IDK how to put this, but two 3rd party characters from the same company in the same pass doesn’t strike me as something Nintendo wants to do when plenty of other companies want a piece of the pie.

Want: Abstain
Depends on the character(s), at the end of the day. That said, I will say that if the only 3rd party companies involved with Vol. 2 were Square Enid and/or Microsoft, I’d find that to be a bit of a **** move (see my chance post).

Agent 47: 5%

Noms:
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x5

 

[DanganZilla5]

Third party double dip

Chance: 35%

Normally I would give this a super low score and I'll get into why it isn't in a little bit. But basically in general I don't see this happening. Sure it is a fan rule that third parties won't double dip, but unlike other fan rules this one has evidence backing it up. Think about it, Steve was in negotiations for 5 years and there has been speculation that Sephiroth might have been negotiated a while ago in order for Cloud to be in the base roster. And yet they still got in a different pass from Banjo and Hero respectively. This says a lot in my eyes.

But let's break this down. First Square Enix. They do have several candidates that make a lot of sense like Neku and Lara Croft and you could even argue for others like Crono. I would personally give these around a 5-10% as they are the types of characters that I could see pushing Nintendo to do a double dip on Square. As for CP 10 and 11 being the same company, I can't see it happening. It would be insane to have something like a Crash and Spyro double reveal, and while I won't completely throw away the possibility since it could explain why this pass has one extra fighter, I can't entertain it as a realistic scenario. In general I have a hard time seeing the last two characters be something like Jibanyan and Layton, or Phoenix and Dante, or Bill Rizer and Alucard. I can't quite pinpoint why, it's just a gut feeling.

Finally, let's talk about Microsoft. They do have Master Chief which is admittedly another character that certainly has the merits to convince Nintendo to double dip on a company just to get him. I......could actually see him getting revealed at E3 despite my concerns with his obstacles of not having a game on a Nintendo system and FPS games not being popular in Japan. Btw I do want to bring up Battletoads, Conker, and Killer Instinct as a possibility though I can't see any of them making it in before Chief. With that said, I'm predicting Crash or someone else to be the E3 star.

Which leads me once again to Dragonborn. Now originally I was going to give this concept anywhere from a 5-15% but then I had the realization that Bethesda counts toward this concept due to them being owned by Microsoft. Now for Bethesda's chances of getting a rep, it's Dragonborn or bust. Doomguy got deconfirmed in an interview and Fallout got a costume this pass. So with that said, I'm going to remind you all why I think Dragonborn has a solid chance.

• Skyrim did very well in Japan and was the first western game to receive a perfect score in Famitsu.
• Skyrim inspired Zelda BOTW.
• The Elder Scrolls is a popular series that has been around for a long time and has influenced open world fantasy games.
• Bethesda in general has been very supportive of the Switch throughout its lifetime and Skyrim was one of the first games shown off for the system.

So yeah Dragonborn pretty much carries this concept thanks to once again the technicality of Microsoft buying everything.

Want: 90%

Normally I abstain on broad concepts like this but I really wanted to give a positive score to show that I would be happy to be wrong. I wish characters like 2B, Lara Croft, a Killer Instinct rep and Master Chief were still completely on the table. Since Bethesda also counts that gives this concept brownie points from me since I'm a big fan of Doom and Skyrim as well. Of course this concept also includes possible character combinations that I don't care about, but since I'm cool with most of the characters that fit this concept (At least when it comes to Square and Microsoft) I'm comfortable giving this a high want score.

Prediction: Agent 47 - 5.50%

Noms: Bill Rizer x15 (Using extra noms)

 

[Cutie Gwen]

The Double Dip.

Chance: 5% Honestly, this is a case of priorities, Nintendo really doesn't care about potentially showing too much favouritism or anything, so it depends entirely if Nintendo sees a character who just so happens to be owned by an already repped company and wants them, if anything, a character already being from a repped company means that Nintendo and that party are on good enough business terms to get a character in Smash already.

Want: 60% I'd usually abstain due to how broad the definition is, but we're at the end, so that means we can safely put SE and MS on here, which narrows things down significantly enough to the point I can confidently give a verdict. For Square, the only choice I've seen that I'd actively dislike is Geno, but when Square also has other characters we can get like Neku, Lara Croft, 2B, Nier, extra FF characters and many more, there's a good chance I'll get something cool. With Microsoft, I'm less happy due to the fewer choices I'd enjoy but Master Chief is the most likely MS character, beyond him, I'd also be excited for Fulgore from Killer Instinct, but the rest is all stuff I'd be indifferent to or need some convincing.

Beatrice x10

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Abstaining

Agent 47: 4.70%
Skullgirls rep x5

 

[Lyncario]

Prepare for trouble
and make it double!

Chances: 2%

I really don't think that a double dip will happen. First of all, let's talk about Master Chief. Yeah, he's not hapening in this pass. Considering how it's pretty consistant how the objectively biggest and hypest characters are at the begining and the middle of the reveals in Smash, but they're never been at the end (for example, for Sm4sh dlc, started with Metwo, Ryu and Cloud towards the middle, and then Corrin and Bayonetta at the end. Don't get me wrong, I love Bayonetta, her series, and the fact that she is in Smash, but she's just not on the level of Ryu and Cloud). could this time be different? Possibly, but extremly unlikely at best. Could they save him for an E3 reveal? Maybe, but I don't think so. Beside, we already have Steve and Sephiroth as the big characters of this pass, Master Chief would make the pass more hype overall to the general public, but it's already incredibly hype considering that Minecraft is in Smash and that the most iconic vilain in the history of jrpgs are both in this pass (to make it clear, I odn't believe that a big character to end the pass is almost impossible, I just think a big character from a double dipped company of this pass is nearly impossible). Other Microsoft characters, just no, they won't get in before Master Chief, not even the Rare characters other than Banjo. Now let's talk Square Enix! First of all, Lara Croft has the same problem as Master Chief, and so does 2B but to a lesset extant, so I'll skip them both. Now, we get to the characters that are why I gave the 2% instead of a 0.1% for pity, Tiz and Neku. TWEWY and BD both are relevant, popular but not blockbuster popular, and on Nintendo systems, and so I give them a bit of credit, but also not too much because I really don't think that a double dip was going to happen in the first place. And for other possibilities, no, both Crash and Spyro (or Crash and Tracer... or Crash alongside another Activision-Blizzard character) won't happen, and neither will other combination from other 3rd party companies.
Edit: I forgot about Bethesda, so I'll add it here that it's mostly like for MC because it's really only the Dovahkin since Doomguy/slayer got disconfirmed by interview, though Doomguy/slayer has I'd say a decent shot for pass 3/future Smash before MC.

Want: 90%

If a double dip is confirmed, then I think that it would most likely be Square Enix, and so many of their characters would be amazing in Smash. 2B and Lara are both some of my most wanted, so of course I'd want that, and while I don't like them as much, Tiz and Neku would also both be awesome to have in Smash, and so would other characters from FF and DQ. So yeah. that would be pretty amazing to me if it was an SE character. It would be ok I guess if it was for Microsoft, but not something I'd be very hyped about.
Edit: Adding Bethesda here too... Mostly don't care, so it's the same as for Microsoft here.

Prediction

Agent 47: 3.1%

Nominations

Akira/Officer Howard/Legionis x10
Debate/concept: are virtual idols like Hatsune Miku or Vtubers eligible for Smash due to loopholes x25

 

[YoshiandToad]

Square² (and Microsoft too)
Chance: 8%
With both Master Chief and Lara Croft appearing in a multitude of crossovers including both of them appearing in Fortnite together, I'm not willing to rule that either gaming legend is completely out of the question for appearing in Smash Bros. Ultimate...at least not yet.

However I do think they're the only ones who have any possibility. I don't see Doomguy happening, especially since he and Master Chief are now both owned by the same overall company, and whilst there's other options outside Lara(2B notably or a Bravely character), Square are even allowing 'retro' Lara to appear in Fortnite AND Brawhalla alongside their reboot version which I think would appeal to a video game enthusiast like Sakurai.

Both characters being so huge means I only expect at best one of those two as Smash has never typically ended on the most impactful newcomer.

I can't see a scenario where the last two characters are from the same company. Sega, Capcom, Bandai Namco, Koei-Tecmo, Activision, etc are at best going to get one character a piece...and that's if one of the last two aren't first party fighters anyway, so I'm not even going to consider them for this pass.

Want: 65%
Honestly...I like Lara Croft the most of these two options. They're both absolutely huge third parties and it'd be cool to see both in, but Lara is the one I'd probably buy as a fighter AND the amiibo of.

Lara Croft is easily in my top 5 most wanted third parties of all time and there's very few other third parties who are still in the running I'd be happier to see, but I'm still more a first party guy at heart. Lara's probably my best case scenario for a third party at this point, with Tails and Bomberman out of the running due to Mii costumes(and other roles), Spyro being a literal who in Japan, Heavy (or indeed ANY Valve character) being incredibly unlikely and Agent 47...well, we'll be discussing how unlikely he is tomorrow...talking of...

Predictions: Agent 47: 4.7%

 

[Phoenix Douchebag]

EXTRA DIP.

Chance: 5%

It's not likely by both companies, Square and Microsoft seem quite content from what they got with Banjo, Hero, Steve and Sephiroth. While they have some extra characters they could use with Square having the rest of the FF franchise, TWEWY and Sora if Disney agreed with them and Microsoft with Bathesda's characters AND Master Chief, but i do not find any of these choices likely anymore, they already got the big hits and outside of maybe Lara thsese choices are more of the bottom of the barrel type, not a bad thing at all, the 2 Last Smash newcomers always tend to be lower hitters, but here's the thing, we still have many companies that may want that piece of pie.

There's Sega has Arle Nadja (and Sakura Shinguji if that tickles your fancy) Namco has Tales characters, Soul Calibur Characters and the Chosen Undead, Konami has Bill Rizer, and so on.

There's also the fact that we may get unrepped companies instead. We may have lost Tecmo Koei with Ryu (although they still have Dynasty Warriors and DOA for what its worth) there's Falcom, and Activision, and even a unexpected one like EA. The room feels too crowded for me to see as a double dip in the same pass as anything but a unlikely possibility, especially since i see FP2's characters as ALREADY being a double dip itself.

Also i have a gut feeling we may get a Nintendo character as the last reveal, but it's just a gut feeling.

Want: 0%

No thanks. I may be singing a different tune if Geno wasn't a costume, but he is so i have no interest in any of these characters, unless hell freezes over and we get Terra with FFVI content im not feeling any of these choices.

Never played a TR game, TWEWY doesn't tickle my fancy, Hype Backlash has made me not care for Nier at all, and i have no interest in Master Chief, Dovahkinn or Doom Guy.

I guess im really picky with Third Parties in General so it's not too surprising here.

I wish i could say more but........not really.

NOMS:
Gunvolt X5

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Third party double dip

chance: 45% - depends on the company more than anything. It would be easy though, since this pass seems to be tying up loose ends, getting two from the same company while you’re at it may be easier than thought. Probably for existing companies only though, new ones not so much.

Want: 80% - again depends on the company. Microsoft double dipping I’d be largely meh on (unless it’s my pipe dream Ori). Square Enix seems like the best hope for Neku Sakuraba, one of my most wanted newcomers who I voted for on the ballot. With TWEWY NEO on the horizon, it’s possible (and I hope) that after negotiations for Sephiroth completed Sakurai was like “oh what the hell let’s grab Neku too” You can even make the last two two Namco characters in a row like KOS-MOS and a non-Lloyd Tales character (cause i staunchly believe that costume’s returning) and id be content. Or even KOS-MOS and T-elos (unique)

a new company double dipping for the last two slots tho... it would depend HEAVILY. like if the last two were like Crash and Spyro, I’d be down with Crash, but Spyro would leave me a bit... fatigued.

abstaining from predictions

nominating Octoling x5

 

[fogbadge]

long winded rating name

chances: 5% this is one of those things i believe could happen but i dont think will happen. SE does still get some new things in smash mostly spirit events, in fact im fairly certain we'll get one for neo twewy. of course thats a far cry away from a full character but it is nice to know theyre continuing to support. as for microsoft well they did seem keen to have their stuff in smash unclear if that will continue. its hard to say what kind of relationship microsoft and nintendo will have going forward. over all i think either company could easily get more characters in the future i just doubt it for the last two.

want: because it such a large concept ill go with 50% as it will depend who it is. now theres loads of SE characters id be pretty happy with, neku, tiz, yew, and just about every FF character bar yuffie who should die. as for microsoft im not sure theres any of their characters id be happy with, certainly other BK characters like grunty and mumbo jumbo. maybe something from viva pinata (that was rare right?) but im not sure there are any non rare characters id like. so yeah fifty fifty theres so many characters id like and wouldnt like.

nom grunty x10

 

[ShotoStar]

Pretty much the same character when u think abt it, from the same company so. (Company Double Dip):

Chance: 35%

Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh... Below average chance of happening but not terrible all in all. I think it could realistically happen particularly cause there's nothing really holding them back from doing it but it depends on who the characters are and who the company is. We've seen company double dip from pass 1 to pass 2 so for it to happen within the same pass isn't too out there, there's nothing really holding it back I think beyond negotiations but.

At the same time it depends on the character and the company, as said previously. I always like to assume Nintendo and co. look through an entire company before choosing who they do and in that case they probably factored in characters like Arle Nadja, Eggman, Kiryu and went with Joker when it comes to Pass 1 SEGA so it really depends on if they find two characters interesting enough from one company to put within the same pass which just... hasn't happened yet. Of course we don't know if my line of thinking is what actually happens or not but I like to assume they weigh their options.

And then there's the whole company and negotiations business, it also depends highly on that too. While I don't think Square or someone like Microsoft/Konami are necessarily or particularly stingy with their licensing it's also probably difficult to put characters from those companies in without someone in both parties pushing them. Banjo for example had that push from Phil Spencer (link) (link) [Note: Second link the original tweet is removed but basically Phil responds to someone asking if he'd still like to see Banjo in Smash Bros.] and I believe the creator of DQ or the head of the franchise also wanted to see Hero join Smash Bros (link) and so on so forth.

Meanwhile there's some companies like SNK, SEGA, Namco-Bandai (for obvious reasons) or Capcom where they could easily get two characters if Nintendo decided to go that route, although with some of them it's already unlikely they'll even get a new inclusion (cough Namco cough), I think for the most part the previous four mentioned are the more lax companies in Smash but of course again they're still a company so Nintendo and co. would A) Want to add two characters from the same company and B) Said company would be fine with it, which they probably would I imagine but still.

It all comes down to if they'd want to or not but there's nothing too big holding them back beyond negotiations and seeing as how they already negotiated with these companies before I don't think that's necessarily too hard to overcome. Unfortunately for the idea of double dipping I think Nintendo would rather add new companies in Smash or pull from other Companies that are in Smash yet haven't got a new inclusion during DLC as they may find that more lucrative. It really just depends on if Nintendo finds it profitable to do it but there's nothing really holding it back I imagine.


Want: 40%

Eeeeeeeeeeeeh I guess it depends on which company they'd double dip for, personally. If they double dipped on something like SNK I'd be underwhelmed due to not having any personal connection with the company but if it's something like SEGA and they add say Eggman and Kiryu as the final two I'd be down for that. Or even something like Capcom and the final characters are Dante and Phoenix Wright I think that'd be hella kino and super funny after all the arguing over which they'd choose.

That said even those latter two scenarios seem a bit... lackluster, even though I like and want both Kiryu/Eggman and I like/want Wright as well I'd still prefer for them to add new companies and maybe add one of those formerly mentioned characters rather than double dips. I find adding new companies to be a lot more fun and interesting compared to the idea of just getting more of a pre-existing company. After all there are so many companies they could pull from it'd be a bit of a waste I think.

I don't really jive with the idea but I'm not openly anti-double dips cause it just... depends on who they choose, I guess. It could be cool or it could be really boring.

Nominations:
Beatrice (Umineko) x10

 

[Sari]

Chance: 10%
I don't see CP10 and CP11 being from the exact same third party company. Because. of this I'm just counting this rating as the chances of us getting another Microsoft or Square Enix character.

Microsoft: The main candidate for this would be Master Chief. I've talked about him before, but really I don't see him happening. There's also Conker but I think he'd have lower priority than Chief.

I'm not counting Bethesda for this rating since they got purchased by Microsoft in the middle of FP2. Even if I did, I don't see a Bethesda character happening after the Vault Boy costume we got with Min Min.

Square Enix: I think the candidates for this are Neku, Lara Croft, and possibly Crono. I could see Neku getting in since Square has been promoting TWEWY a lot recently. Same for Tomb Raider, which has been performing really amazing sales-wise over the past few years. Crono is sort of an odd pick but if we're going for another JRPG with legacy then I could see him happening.


So in short I think the chances of these candidates would be something like Neku > Lara Croft > Chief > Crono > Conker. These characters (specifically the first two) have a fair amount of things going for them, though I just don't see Sakurai double dipping with another third party when he could go for other companies.

Want: 50%
It mainly depends on who it would be. All of the characters that I've mentioned would be great to have in Smash. However, in general I would prefer that we get some more characters from other companies that we haven't seen in this pass.

-----

Agent 47 chance prediction: 4.70%

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x10

 

[GoodGrief741]

In the spirit of today's concept, here's a double noms update!

Spoiler: Nominations post-Velvet Crowe pre-Goku

Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Concept: Disgaea rep x280
Mike Haggar x265
Rallen (Spectrobes) x265
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x230
Tetra x225

250 - 201

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Skullgirls rep x214
Beatrice (Umineko) x205

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Ryza (Atelier) x170
Trevor Philips x170
Concept: From Software rep x170
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x165
Senator Armstrong x155
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x151

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Stage: Bowser's Castle x142
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Sackboy x130
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Louie x105

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
[Rerate] Officer Howard x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Meat Boy x80
Bill Rizer x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Garchomp x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55

50 - 25

Gunvolt x50
Corvo Attano x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Tails x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Rean Schwarzer x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Todd Snap x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Firebrand x1

Rallen ties with Mike Haggar for third place.

Beatrice warps past 200 noms. At the rate she's getting noms expect her in the top seven soon.

Concept: A BioShock protagonist tears through 150 noms.

Louie collects 100 noms.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Goku pre-Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass

Concept: Disgaea rep x310
Beatrice (Umineko) x310
Rallen (Spectrobes) x295
Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Skullgirls rep x244
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x240

250 - 201

[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Tetra x225
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Ryza (Atelier) x200
Trevor Philips x200
Concept: From Software rep x185
Estelle Bright x185
Senator Armstrong x185
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x181
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x170

150 - 101

Stage: Bowser's Castle x147
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Sackboy x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
[Rerate] Louie x110
Bill Rizer x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Meat Boy x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
[Rerate] Officer Howard x90
Corvo Attano x85
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Garchomp x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Gunvolt x55
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x55

50 - 25

Rean Schwarzer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
Todd Snap x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Tails x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
[Rerate] Reimu x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Disgaea rep defeats Billy & Jimmy Lee and takes first place. Rallen wins his bout with Mike Haggar, and also passes the Lee Bros. to steal second place. Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo passes Concept: League of Legends rep and gets fifth place. Concept: Skullgirls rep joins the top seven in fifth place, over Edgeworth and LoL, while Tetra is thrown overboard. Oh, and remember this?

Beatrice warps past 200 noms. At the rate she's getting noms expect her in the top seven soon.

Yeah, Beatrice joins the top seven... in first place, tied with Disgaea rep. Bye bye LoL rep.

Elsewhere, Bill Rizer blasts past 100 noms.

Gunvolt, Corvo Attano and Crash Bandicoot sneak past 50 noms.

Rean Schwarzer and Todd Snap escape the under 25 club.

Today's sole newcomer is a rerate of Reimu, with 5 noms.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Double Dip

Chance: 50%
Honestly, it can go either way. For Microsoft, they still have Master Chief if Nintendo wanted to rep the FPS genre. For Square Enix, they've got... who knows how many good options. Heck, the latter has been very generous with post-launch content, what with the Spirit Events and all that. However, it's just as likely that Nintendo would rather add a new company to the fold. It's all up to them, really.

Abstain on want. This is too vague for me to give a proper want score.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep xMax

 

[Jomosensual]

Double Dip DLC

Chance 10 - I can see some reasons as to why it could happen. I'll start by saying that I don't expect to see anyone snag the last 2 spots in FP2, so that runs it to just Square and Microsoft here. Lets break them down:

Square: Lots of good picks here. Ignoring the ones that dont have anything coming up we have the likes of TWEWY2 and Nier getting new stuff soon. And even though theres not much around him right now Crono is the only character from that list of 7 SE reps that has no fate decided for smash. So in short, maybe. There's also Lara Croft and part of Sora I suppose who could get in along with a whole host of FF characters. So there could be some characters who get in here. But will they? I'm not feeling it. There aren't any real trends here other than that Square likes to push projects into Smash that they're promoting at the time given the spirit events and the last 2 characters we got from them, and I don't think Neku or a Nier character is going to be the one to cause a double dip

Microsoft:
Ok, I think this is probably where it would happen if it were to happen at all. There's 2 reasons. First is the intentional one Nintendo might try and do. That being, get Master Chief for an E3 reveal. He's easily the biggest character from Microsoft they could get and the last 2 E3 spots went to characters from Microsoft. The other one, which would have been most likely a completely unintentional one, would be if a Bethesda character gets in. Doom Guy and Fallout is already repped so I'm thinking the character here likely would have to be Dovahkiin. It's not impossible as Skyrim was easily one of the most iconic games of the 2010s. With only 2 spots left though and likely 1 at best for a western rep the odds aren't favoring him much though

Want 50 - This mostly depends on who the character is. I don't really have an issue with one company getting reps over the other. As long as the character is good then I really don't care.

Predictions:
Agent 47 - 15.52%

Noms:
Bioshock Protagonist x10

 

[Yiptap]

Double Dip DLC

Chance-5%
I would give this a 5% rating due to the patterns we've seen in the passes. I have them below:

Square Enix
Microsoft

As you can see, the first fighters pass had one fighter from Square Enix and Microsoft each. And fighters pass 2 had, once again, one fighter from Square Enix and one fighter from Microsoft. It doesn't seem very likely for Nintendo to break that pattern. As for the same companies filling in the final slots with characters, that just seems too farfetched. All in all, it probably won't happen.

Want-Abstain
Eh, all the fighters I want from both Square Enix and Microsoft are already there, so I'm fine with it. And every other third party company with a character I want (Capcom, Spike Chunsoft, Sega, etc) has only one character I would really want, so I'll abstain.

Noms: Meat Boy x Max

Agent 47: 2.34%

 

[Golden Icarus]

I swear every time I post on this thread it ends up being way more wordy than I expect.

Double Dip

Chance: 30%

I really can't think of any good reasons as to why this couldn't happen. We've already seen two Square/Microsoft characters, so why not a third? If Nintendo already has those companies on board for DLC, then negotiations should only be easier right? The main reason I can't give it a higher score is because there are only a few spots left and most of the supposed "frontrunners" just happen to be from different companies. That said, there are still plenty of Microsoft/Square characters that I feel have a pretty decent shot.

Master Chief is always the first character that comes to mind, and for good reason. The idea that Nintendo would've made a deal with Microsoft to add Banjo, Steve and Master Chief in that order makes plenty of sense to me. First, you add in the fan favorite "forgotten Nintendo all star," then you add the new hotness. then you really blow people's minds with Mr. Xbox himself. I can definitely see it. Especially keeping in mind that we got Banjo in 2019, and Steve in 2020, leaving E3 2021 as the perfect time to show off our final Microsoft all star. All three characters reach entirely different audiences, so it hardly even feels like "double dipping."

While it is a bit of a loophole, a Bethesda character is always possible. I've stated before that I never found Doomguy all that likely. I think people oversell how iconic he is, and while we have gotten violent characters in the past, we haven't gotten anything as outright gory and visceral as Doom. However, Dragonborn feels perfectly plausible. Elder Scrolls has much better sales than Doom, and has always been Bethesda's flagship franchise. I am a little biased as I adore Skyrim, but...so does the rest of the world! Skyrim was, and still is, wildly successful. Alongside GTA V, it's one of the most successful Western games in Japan. It received a perfect Famitsu score and was heavily praised by many Japanese developers (including the team behind BotW iirc). As far as Western characters go, Dragonborn is definitely a frontrunner. He does have some stuff stacked against him. He is a "generic avatar" much like Monster Hunter and we already have the Vault Boy Mii which likely would have been released alongside him. Still, I do think the Dovahkiin is a possibility.

Moving on to Square characters, I believe that two stand out the most. The first is Lara Croft who is undeniably one of the most iconic characters in gaming. She's also one of the more unique Square characters, which make her feel less like a double dip. She isn't as well known in Japan and doesn't have much connection to Nintendo, which is a couple strikes against her. Still, she's Lara freaking Croft. I'd argue that she's definitely among the top 5 biggest gaming icons still absent from Smash, and for that reason I feel like you can't really rule her out.

I'm also a strong believer that Crono is being slept on. Chrono Trigger is weird because it didn't really stick like many of Square's other franchises, and is somewhat irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. But Crono's popularity in the late 90s-early 2000s was insane, and I can't help but feel like Chrono Trigger is right up Sakurai's alley. And with how iconic the game is, I find it really weird that it still isn't on the eShop. That should probably make me more doubtful, but it kind of just makes me feel that they're holding it back for a reason. Square still acknowledges the game as they just released a port of it in 2018 for Steam. Why not release it on the Switch? Also I know that people don't like this being brought up, but there is the "7 Square characters" that Vergeben mentioned. Three of which are playable (Luminary, Erdrick, Sephiroth), two are Mii costumes (Slime, Geno), and two of which are unaccounted for (Sora, Crono). Sora makes sense due to the whole Disney thing, but why haven't we seen anything related to Crono? Vergeben himself said that some of the characters he heard were probably misdirects, but still, it's really weird that Crono is the only one of the 7 Squares that is mysteriously absent. We've gotten loads of Square spirit events and Mii costumes, yet nothing from Chrono Trigger. I don't know, it's all just a little sus imo.

Then we also have Neku, 2B, and a few others that are probably a bit less likely, but still possible. In the end, it really comes down to individual characters. The company that a character comes from only matter to an extent. If Nintendo really wanted Banjo, Steve and Master Chief, I doubt that they'd say "ah dang, we're only doing two fighters passes, so I guess we can only add two." If the individual characters have enough merits, then the company that they come from should hardly matter.

Want: 70%

I mean it really depends on who we get, but most of the Microsquare frontrunners would make me very happy. Dovahkiin is an easy 100% from me, and the other characters would all be fantastic additions, in my opinion.

All my noms on Bill Rizer

 

[Inue Houji]

Yeah, Beatrice joins the top seven... in first place, tied with Disgaea rep. Bye bye LoL rep.

Welp, guess she won't need help with nominations after all.

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Third Party Double Dip

Chance: 5% - It's a possibility, but just because it can happen doesn't mean we should expect it to. Though at the same time I'm not going to rule the possibility out entirely.

For Square, they still have plenty of potential candidates, especially Neku who they've been pushing right now. Plus they've continued getting third party spirit events, which definitely a plus for them. However, considering how much money it would've taken to get someone huge like Sephiroth I can imagine Nintendo would find it more lucrative to go for someone else. Furthermore, a cheaper character to promote an upcoming game (such as a Bravely character) likely won't happen, since Bravely Default II is already out, and if we were getting a character from that franchise we probably would've gotten them as FP9 (and Pyra/Mythra's reveal wasn't time dependent so they'd likely be flexible with their position in the pass). I'll also bring up a unique point here: Mii Costumes. Square Miis only come with Square characters, and if we were getting a second Square I don't think they would've brought back both Square costumes with Sephiroth. Likely they would've added back Chobobo alongside Sephiroth (for a full Final Fantasy-themed Mii pack ala Hero's Dragon Quest wave) and then brought back Geno with the second Square character. Not entirely stable evidence but after two high-profile DLC characters and the way things have been organized I don't see Nintendo splurging on a third Square Enix character.

Now for Microsoft. They have shown the distinct interest of having Master Chief in Smash and I can imagine they'd be more generous than a lot of other Third parties. Though with Chief's lack of popularity in Japan Nintendo might not see him as very lucrative. Plus the reason why we have both Banjo and Steve is due to both Phil Spencer campaigning for Banjo in Smash along with them sorta "sneaking in" while Steve negotiations were underway. Microsoft and Nintendo have a great relationship right now but squeezing in a third character I think it stretching it a bit much. It's a lot to squeeze into one period of negotiations (now, if a third pass were happening, which it isn't, then it would be a fresh period of negotiations so things would be different). Though Master Chief is still an extremely hype character and with him appearing in lots of crossovers lately, we can't rule him out entirely. But still I really wouldn't put my bets on this. I've seen a few people also suggesting Conker, but his franchise has basically been dead, he has nowhere near the demand Banjo had, and his series is most well-known these days for Bad Fur Day, something Nintendo more than likely would not want to have associated with their products.

Then there's Bethesda who's here on a technicality, but whose characters technically wouldn't make this concept happen based on negotiations taking place long before the acquisition. With Fallout and Doom out of the running, Bethesda's flagship franchise, The Elder Scrolls, is their frontrunner, along with being one of the most likely western choices overall. Dragonborn in particular, due to Skyrim's many merits, which I've covered in my previous Rate Their Chances posts on him. The Elder Scrolls is also way more popular in Japan than the rest of Microsoft's current fare, which gives him another edge. Nothing new has come about lately in regards to Bethesda's chances, and right now I think their only major obstacle is Crash. I think E3 definitely could have one final huge hype character (they don't all have to be frontloaded), so he still has room to jump in.

Now for companies not already in the pass. This could happen but I wouldn't place my bets on anyone double-dipping into the two final slots. SEGA's one I could see possibly doing this since they'd likely charge Nintendo much less for their characters and they have characters that could fit both E3 and a final reveal. Eggman for E3 then Arle for FP11 seems like a likely combo, though Kiryu E3 (though wasn't he basically deconfirmed at one point?) and Eggman FP11 could definitely work out as well. Activision could do Crash/Tracer or Crash/Spyro double reveal, though in the former's case both character would likely fight for the E3 slot instead, and in Spyro's case his lack of popularity in Japan. Plus Activision likely would charge an arm and a leg for both, so Nintendo might not see it as profitable to double dip on them. SNK already dumped a ton of other franchises into Terry's pack, which felt like a celebration of SNK as a whole, so two new SNK characters really feels like a stretch. Capcom could potentially double-dip with a combo such as Phoenix and another character, depending on the climate. Then there's Namco (who I suspect will end the pass anyways) though with how averse they seem to adding more of their character this one is a super stretch. In terms for smaller developers, I really don't see, say, FP10 and 11 being Layton and Jibanyan, especially since "just making that much sense" doesn't guarantee you a Smash slot, and likely one of them would've already been in by now if Nintendo really wanted to give Level-5 a rep. Same goes for other developers in similar positions.

So overall, I won't rule out the possibility but given the current circumstances I really don't see this happening. I can't think of any real big choices that would make sense to double dip. Though this score can be boosted by quite a bit if the Bethesda technicality counts.

Want: 40% - This really depends on who the characters are. Some of the best case scenarios would be a double Namco of Prince of All Cosmos and Don-chan, or a second Microsoft rep for Chief or the technicality for Dragonborn. Crash and Spyro would also be fantastic, and I wouldn't mind Eggman/Arle either, since I've wanted a second Sonic rep for a long time. Though it's much different for some of the others. An SNK double-dip would just feel underwhelming for me and unnecessary since I don't really care much about SNK's other offerings and something like Kyo and Metal Slug would just be retreading a lot of the same territory. A second Square character would be a bit boring depending on who they choose, though I'm leaning more towards "ugh" since they'd more than likely go for one of their JRPG offerings yet again (and JRPGs have already gotten tons of representation in the DLC). I don't care at all about 2B (and the hype backlash hit hard), and I'd only really be interested if we got someone like Classic Lara or Gex, since they'd bring something new to the table. Plus Lara's iconic and Gex is hilarious and epic. Now in WORST case scenario, we get a Namco double dip of Tales/KOS-MOS or a Falcom double-dip. 4 JRPG characters in a row to end Smash Ultimate, giving the genre the red carpet treatment YET AGAIN and causing both upset fans and smug attitudes all around. Lloyd would at least appeal to the Smash fanbase but I don't get why people on JRPGSmashBoards would find this final two outcome hype. Are people really that against variety? They aren't bad games, I just want to see a little something for everyone in the pass, and it'd be better to have more genres represented. Double Falcom would only accentuate the problem since their offerings are much more traditional and "typical", and their characters feel straight out of the Fire Emblem mold. Rean in particular checks every box that draws people's ire. Thankfully these both have little-to-no chance of happening. A Konami double dip like Frogger/Bill would be novel but neutral.

So I'll give it a neutral score, since this topic is so variable and varies wildly depending on the result, but at the same time I'll rate it a little lower than 50 since the most likely results (aside from Dragonborn or Chief) are the much more underwhelming ones.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x10

Predictions:
Agent 47 - 3.81% - Hitman does have some Nintendo history but doesn't seem like a franchise Nintendo is trying to promote, so this will keep scores low.

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Number 6 with extra dip (Third party double dip)
...Just wanted to make that joke. Abstaining.

Noms: Corvo Attano x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Chance: 2%
"A company won't get more than one character per Pass", a not-so-long-standing fan rule that has become the cornerstone of speculation for the last 2 years. It's been the only pattern we could trust, the only way to brush off candidates beyond the obvious disconfirmations of interviews and post-game content. But lately, as we approach the end of Ultimate, it has been brought into question.

Count me among the unconvinced. Unlike every other fan rule, I find that this one has actual arguments in its favor. For one, the question of variety; Nintendo might figure that all of a company's IP appeals to more or less the same people, and try to broaden the DLC by deliberately avoiding repeats. This makes sense for Square "we pretty much only do JRPGs" Enix, but maybe not so much with Microsoft, whose two characters have both been acquisitions with wildly different histories and been available on different systems. The second, and stronger argument in this scenario, is economic; if a third-party company is responsible for such a large portion of the Pass, maybe they'd want a larger cut of sales. This is by no means a guarantee, but it is a possibility, and might make double dipping possible in theory but hard to make a deal on in practice.

Still, that's all just hypothetical and generally speaking. Let's get into the nitty-gritty, how we stand right now and what this concept means speculation-wise. There are three scenarios in which this concept happens:
A) FP10 and FP11 are both from the same, third party company
B) one of the two fighters is a Square Enix rep
C) one of the two fighters is a Microsoft rep

We can definitely ignore A because even if Nintendo isn't concerned about variety Pass-wide, surely they still know that releasing two fighters from the same company back to back is a bad idea. Barring something like Pythra where we get a two-for-one deal, this won't happen, leaving us with Squenix and Msoft (or both... lmao yeah right)

We can narrow it down a bit more when we take into account that we're down to the last two characters. That means that big, splashy, hype characters (AKA the ones that got people to consider this concept) won't make the cut. It simply makes no sense to hold such a big gun for this late in the game sales- and marketing-wise. If you were expecting Master Chief or Lara Croft, uhh, good luck with that mate. This immediately makes the whole scenario look a lot less likely (and enticing), as it's easy to imagine Nintendo being more flexible if it means getting Sora, but not so much for Agnes.

Let's look at Square Enix first. Honestly, they're the hardest to imagine this scenario panning out with. The rights for the content of their franchises has historically been divided, making licensing difficult and earning them a not entirely deserved reputation for being stingy. Their library, as I said before, is somewhat lacking in variety, and while much has been said of the abundance of JRPG swordfighters, their origins differ more in gameplay, story, tone, and artstyle than two SE characters (especially as their most prolific, recognizable and idiosyncratic designers, Nomura and Toriyama, have their styles represented in-game in all their glory). Removing those we'd be left with their acquisitions, be they Taito (Bub & Bob, Space Invader) or Western (Adam Jensen, Rico Rodriguez) and I don't see Nintendo doubling down for them. They have also been, by far, the third party with the most Spirit Events, meaning they even lack the trump card of any speculator: shill potential. They're doing a lot with Mana lately, maybe that could get a rep? Nope, Spirit Event. Octopath Traveler then? Spirit Event. What about Bravely Default II? That looks like a big deal-Aaand Spirit Event. Square Enix likes their Spirit Events. So I take all of their potential promotional picks as "doomed to a Spirit Event until the contrary is proven". Plus, discarding non-Nintendo games (Babylon's Fall, Forspoken and FF16) we're left with just a handful of games we know of:
• SaGa Frontier (this one will be lucky to get a Spirit Event)
• NieR Replicant (Sakurai didn't meet with Yoko Taro until long after the Pass was defined)
• NEO The World Ends With You (which could theoretically get a character, SE is pushing it heavily; but on the other hand it's not a Switch exclusive, Nintendo isn't on publishing duties anymore, and there's the awkward dichotomy of either adding a character that isn't the star of the promoted game or adding a character that won't be as well received and that Sakurai and co. might not have known about in time)
• Triangle Strategy (again, could happen, and Nintendo is publishing this one, but Octopath Traveler got a Spirit Event and it's sort of a spiritual predecessor to it so we'll see)
• Balan Wonderworld (be careful what you wish for chaps)

Let's see, what else am I missing... Oh yeah, Geno got a Mii Costume.

Microsoft's turn! Let's get this out of the way quick: any homegrown Microsoft character is a no-no, both because of the big deal it would be and because nobody's getting in over the Chief. Of Microsoft's many acquisitions, old and new, it's hard to imagine Sakurai going back to them for smaller Rare characters, and I don't see Nintendo choosing a character from one of their most recent acquisitions like Double Fine's Psychonauts, Ninja Theory's Hellblade, or Obsidian's The Outer Worlds (most of them aren't even on Nintendo). As always, the exception is Bethesda, but even then, Doomguy's dead. That leaves us with Dovahkiin. While apparently one of the big deals I dismiss out of hand, I think the Dragonborn is low-key enough that I could see him happening. It's an avatar character, from a Western game, that has had zero speculation, so I can imagine a timeline where they were held off until after Pyra & Mythra. But that's pretty much it. I won't get into the other potential Bethesda characters because I already have on other days and I find the odds negligibly small.

Want: abstain
When a concept includes possibilities as different as Gex and Joanna Dark I can't give a precise score. I doubt it'll happen anyway and if it happens it won't be for the reasons people want it to happen so I don't even see the point.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Agent 47 prediction: 4.7% XD

 

[NintenRob]

Chance: 2%
"A company won't get more than one character per Pass", a not-so-long-standing fan rule that has become the cornerstone of speculation for the last 2 years. It's been the only pattern we could trust, the only way to brush off candidates beyond the obvious disconfirmations of interviews and post-game content. But lately, as we approach the end of Ultimate, it has been brought into question.

Count me among the unconvinced. Unlike every other fan rule, I find that this one has actual arguments in its favor. For one, the question of variety; Nintendo might figure that all of a company's IP appeals to more or less the same people, and try to broaden the DLC by deliberately avoiding repeats. This makes sense for Square "we pretty much only do JRPGs" Enix, but maybe not so much with Microsoft, whose two characters have both been acquisitions with wildly different histories and been available on different systems. The second, and stronger argument in this scenario, is economic; if a third-party company is responsible for such a large portion of the Pass, maybe they'd want a larger cut of sales. This is by no means a guarantee, but it is a possibility, and might make double dipping possible in theory but hard to make a deal on in practice.

Still, that's all just hypothetical and generally speaking. Let's get into the nitty-gritty, how we stand right now and what this concept means speculation-wise. There are three scenarios in which this concept happens:
A) FP10 and FP11 are both from the same, third party company
B) one of the two fighters is a Square Enix rep
C) one of the two fighters is a Microsoft rep

We can definitely ignore A because even if Nintendo isn't concerned about variety Pass-wide, surely they still know that releasing two fighters from the same company back to back is a bad idea. Barring something like Pythra where we get a two-for-one deal, this won't happen, leaving us with Squenix and Msoft (or both... lmao yeah right)

We can narrow it down a bit more when we take into account that we're down to the last two characters. That means that big, splashy, hype characters (AKA the ones that got people to consider this concept) won't make the cut. It simply makes no sense to hold such a big gun for this late in the game sales- and marketing-wise. If you were expecting Master Chief or Lara Croft, uhh, good luck with that mate. This immediately makes the whole scenario look a lot less likely (and enticing), as it's easy to imagine Nintendo being more flexible if it means getting Sora, but not so much for Agnes.

Let's look at Square Enix first. Honestly, they're the hardest to imagine this scenario panning out with. The rights for the content of their franchises has historically been divided, making licensing difficult and earning them a not entirely deserved reputation for being stingy. Their library, as I said before, is somewhat lacking in variety, and while much has been said of the abundance of JRPG swordfighters, their origins differ more in gameplay, story, tone, and artstyle than two SE characters (especially as their most prolific, recognizable and idiosyncratic designers, Nomura and Toriyama, have their styles represented in-game in all their glory). Removing those we'd be left with their acquisitions, be they Taito (Bub & Bob, Space Invader) or Western (Adam Jensen, Rico Rodriguez) and I don't see Nintendo doubling down for them. They have also been, by far, the third party with the most Spirit Events, meaning they even lack the trump card of any speculator: shill potential. They're doing a lot with Mana lately, maybe that could get a rep? Nope, Spirit Event. Octopath Traveler then? Spirit Event. What about Bravely Default II? That looks like a big deal-Aaand Spirit Event. Square Enix likes their Spirit Events. So I take all of their potential promotional picks as "doomed to a Spirit Event until the contrary is proven". Plus, discarding non-Nintendo games (Babylon's Fall, Forspoken and FF16) we're left with just a handful of games we know of:
• SaGa Frontier (this one will be lucky to get a Spirit Event)
• NieR Replicant (Sakurai didn't meet with Yoko Taro until long after the Pass was defined)
• NEO The World Ends With You (which could theoretically get a character, SE is pushing it heavily; but on the other hand it's not a Switch exclusive, Nintendo isn't on publishing duties anymore, and there's the awkward dichotomy of either adding a character that isn't the star of the promoted game or adding a character that won't be as well received and that Sakurai and co. might not have known about in time)
• Triangle Strategy (again, could happen, and Nintendo is publishing this one, but Octopath Traveler got a Spirit Event and it's sort of a spiritual predecessor to it so we'll see)
• Balan Wonderworld (be careful what you wish for chaps)

Let's see, what else am I missing... Oh yeah, Geno got a Mii Costume.

Microsoft's turn! Let's get this out of the way quick: any homegrown Microsoft character is a no-no, both because of the big deal it would be and because nobody's getting in over the Chief. Of Microsoft's many acquisitions, old and new, it's hard to imagine Sakurai going back to them for smaller Rare characters, and I don't see Nintendo choosing a character from one of their most recent acquisitions like Double Fine's Psychonauts, Ninja Theory's Hellblade, or Obsidian's The Outer Worlds (most of them aren't even on Nintendo). As always, the exception is Bethesda, but even then, Doomguy's dead. That leaves us with Dovahkiin. While apparently one of the big deals I dismiss out of hand, I think the Dragonborn is low-key enough that I could see him happening. It's an avatar character, from a Western game, that has had zero speculation, so I can imagine a timeline where they were held off until after Pyra & Mythra. But that's pretty much it. I won't get into the other potential Bethesda characters because I already have on other days and I find the odds negligibly small.

Want: abstain
When a concept includes possibilities as different as Gex and Joanna Dark I can't give a precise score. I doubt it'll happen anyway and if it happens it won't be for the reasons people want it to happen so I don't even see the point.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Agent 47 prediction: 4.7% XD

I've been obsessed with Gravity Falls lately so that picture caught me off guard.

That said

Abstain
Nominate Carmen Sandiego xMax

 

[Louie G.]

DOUBLE DIP (AKA, Master Chief again)

CHANCE - 30%
Look, I can't really be too confident in anything at this point, but after Hayabusa's disconfirmation there was one thing I finally decided to accept as my expectation - it seemed likely, to me, that our remaining characters would all belong to companies that are already involved in Smash's roster. I was already drifting in this direction before, but Koei Tecmo was what prevented me from confidently taking that stance... well, this week has changed a lot for speculation and KT no longer feels like such a strong possibility.

It's becoming increasingly clear that FP2 is not about the same things that FP1 prioritized. At this stage in FP1, we had two brand new companies on board in Microsoft and SNK, with Atlus in tow depending on how you wanna handle that one. In FP2, we have two returning companies and then two Nintendo characters. Three of these four are from series / games that already have content in the game, too. We're not really expanding in the same way we did last time, and that's been altering my perception of these last characters quite a bit.

So regarding additional content for SE and Microsoft, I'm not really confident that it will happen, but not particularly for the reasons people think. I highlighted this when discussing Master Chief some time back, but I really struggle to see why Nintendo would pass up on adding Halo into Smash just because.... we have Minecraft in Smash. There is zero correlation between these two series outside of their owner, their genre / audience / appeal / content is all completely different. Hell, Microsoft kinda functions differently than most of the other companies in Smash too - they're a corporation that just so happens to have bought out a bunch of other companies, they aren't developers like the others. So it puts them in a particularly unique position at that.

But the main point is that these characters should probably be judged under their own lens, separately from whether or not they happen to share a parent company. Because surely Microsoft and SE have shown themselves to be cooperative, and if there happened to be another character who Nintendo felt warranted inclusion, or was really gonna benefit one or both of the parties, I think it'd be a bit close minded to count it out simply because like... what, we need to be "fair" to the other companies? I think we as a community weigh this arbitrary idea of balance and fairness too heavily, emphasizing some emotional element to a corporation who will simply make these decisions based on what can sell and what will benefit them. It doesn't matter as much as you think it does. Otherwise Namco would have gotten another character by now, but this is a folly people have been falling for since Smash 4.

Of course this doesn't guarantee any of them either. I think Square Enix is just about set, mostly due to the last two characters being from JRPGs and well, yell at me about it if you want but I think Nintendo is at least sensible enough to target at least one other kind of audience before DLC ends. Square Enix's biggest franchises tend to have a good amount of cross appeal with Final Fantasy, since SE is kind of the JRPG company and many of their games end up falling under a similar genre umbrella. The series that don't... don't feel significant enough to show up as DLC right now (as neat as Bubble Bobble would be). TWEWY is possible and would be very distinct but I'm not seeing it at the moment. Sora isn't happening and Crono overlaps heavily with Hero.

Microsoft boils down to Chief and only Chief, really. And I still believe Master Chief has a decently solid chance at being playable, although I also hesitate to believe we still have a reveal as gigantic as Master Chief left in our systems. If we do get one more megaton reveal though, I think it'd be him. He really has nothing in common with Banjo or Steve, and his significance justifies itself. He'd be a perfect E3 reveal too. I feel like it'd be silly to sit here and explain Halo's credentials of all things, but bottom line is that my gut has prevented me from fully counting Chief out. I just don't believe that Steve is a character who should or would have any direct bearing on whether or not Master Chief can be playable. They could coexist, but that doesn't mean they will.

So TLDR, if you held me at gunpoint I'd tell you we probably aren't getting another character from the same company in the same pass. BUT I don't believe Steve or Sephiroth, in and of themselves, prevent other characters from their companies from getting in. If there's enough incentive then I have no reason to think Nintendo would put such an arbitrary restriction on themselves toward a potentially entirely different kind of character. I dunno, ramble ramble ramble. Master Chief has a shot, I think.

WANT - ABSTAIN
It entirely depends. There aren't a lot of characters from Square Enix that I want right now, and to be honest not a lot from Microsoft either. The only character I genuinely want to see who fits this bill would be Master Chief. Way too many variables to give a proper want rating... but honestly most of my MWs come from companies that haven't seen representation in FP2 yet (or are from Nintendo), so yeah.

NOMS: TAILS x10
Agent 47 - 2.35%

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Ending the day now since we have not gotten a post in 12 hours.

Today we are rating Agent 47 from Hitman. Will he sneak up a decent score? Rate him in chance and want.

Tomorrow we got Excitebiker rolling onto the stage, predict their score.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Bruh why are we rating a movie character?

Chance: 1% Agent 47 is... Hmmm. Personally, I feel that this character will be getting a LOT of flak for being, y'know, a hitman. I feel Smash is cartoony enough that real violence can be ignored as seen with Ridley impaling you, Joker shooting you with a gun and Snake choking you. If Smash is already able to get away with these, then 47 can get away with his usual stuff, I do know the series is all about creativity in handling kills, so the moveset potential is indeed there, but 47 has uhh... A problem. Lara. If I were Nintendo and I was ok with adding a Square Eidos character, I'd want the biggest choice, not second best, especially as 47 doesn't seem to have much demand in comparison either

Want: Abstain, too unfamiliar with the franchise, though I do have Hitman Go because of a charity, is that one good? I didn't like the movie that came out a few years ago which I saw for free too.

Estelle Bright x10

 

[DaUsername]

Using the 2 hour rule to abstain from the double dip concept.
Hitman prediction: 7%
Noms: Senator Armstrong x5

 

[Lyncario]

Abstain, I don't feel like it.

Nominations: Akira Howard x5

Preidctions: Exctie Bike: 4.7%

 

[BowserKing]

Agent 47

Chance: 5%. I don’t know if Agent 47 will be in the fighter’s pass. Of course Agent 47’s chance could Ben increased in the sequel. And we have seen unlikely characters get in as well.

Want: 50%. I don’t know too much about Agent 47 or that Hitman game, but Agent 47 would be fun to play as. But overall while Agent 47 would make a decent Smash Bros rep, I would be on the fence.

Prediction: Exicitebiker (10%)

Noms: 5 for Echo: Bowser

 

[Sari]

Some songs to get into the assassination mood:

Spoiler: Hitman Music

-----

I'm going to abstain since my only experience with the series is the first few levels of Blood Money which I can never beat.

Excitebiker chance prediction: 9.81%

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Agent 47
Chance: 1.47%
Hitman does well for itself as a franchise but it's not very relevant to Nintendo. One of the older games had a Gamecube release and the new 2021 game came to the Switch... in cloud form. Really doubt that would have any influence on Smash. Oh and this character is also an actual hitman which I'm not sure Nintendo would be that comfortable with.

Want: 1%
Eh... I'm sure the Hitman games are decent but I'm not seeing Smash material here. Could be another case of the more realistic tone and setting just not fitting in my mind like GTA and Red Dead, although this can probably be better compared to Metal Gear Solid and Snake, I assume. Regardless, the limited amount of characters left just kills it for me. You know the drill, I am hoping for really specific characters at this point to which I'm kinda rooting against characters like these.

Excitebiker: 5.13%
Skullgirls rep x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Bruh why are we rating a movie character?

Chance: 1% Agent 47 is... Hmmm. Personally, I feel that this character will be getting a LOT of flak for being, y'know, a hitman. I feel Smash is cartoony enough that real violence can be ignored as seen with Ridley impaling you, Joker shooting you with a gun and Snake choking you. If Smash is already able to get away with these, then 47 can get away with his usual stuff, I do know the series is all about creativity in handling kills, so the moveset potential is indeed there, but 47 has uhh... A problem. Lara. If I were Nintendo and I was ok with adding a Square Eidos character, I'd want the biggest choice, not second best, especially as 47 doesn't seem to have much demand in comparison either

Want: Abstain, too unfamiliar with the franchise, though I do have Hitman Go because of a charity, is that one good? I didn't like the movie that came out a few years ago which I saw for free too.

Estelle Bright x10

Agent 47
Chance: 0.47%
Now I don't know a lot about Hitman or Agent 47 but I do know he'd a Square Enix double dipp. I abstained on that concept last day but I'll say that I sure don't see that happening. It's not like 47 would stand much of a chance against characters like Neku and Lara Croft. Hitman does well for itself as a franchise but it's not very relevant to Nintendo. One of the older games had a Gamecube release and the new 2021 game came to the Switch... in cloud form. Really doubt that would have any influence on Smash. Oh and this character is also an actual hitman which I'm not sure Nintendo would be that comfortable with.

Want: 1%
Eh... I'm sure the Hitman games are decent but I'm not seeing Smash material here. Could be another case of the more realistic tone and setting just not fitting in my mind like GTA and Red Dead, although this can probably be better compared to Metal Gear Solid and Snake, I assume. Regardless, the limited amount of characters left just kills it for me. You know the drill, I am hoping for really specific characters at this point to which I'm kinda rooting against characters like these. Agent 47 would also be another DLC Square character which I would find a bit lame since that third-party has already gotten more than enough post-base game content imo.

Excitebiker: 5.13%
Skullgirls rep x10

I expected this to be a common misconception, but Square Enix hasn't owned Hitman since 2017.

 

[Deleted member]

I expected this to be a common misconception, but Square Enix hasn't owned Hitman since 2017.

People probably don't know the devs behind the games IO Interactive acquired the rights to the Hitman franchise from SE sometime after Hitman 1 came out, and since then, Warner Bros published the latest Hitman games.

I'll post my ratings for Hitman later maybe.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I know nothing about Hitman.

Nominations: Concept: Disgaea rep x5

Say, I just noticed we're pretty close to our 600th Day. Do we have anything planned for that?