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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
I don't have any context but the idea of making OCs in a game about real life people just sounds really funny, even if it's probably just player-made characters.
It's actually not! I mean, they do obviously have create-a-player (and even create-a-manager for whatever reason) as modes, but the story modes star fixed characters called Alex Hunter for FIFA and Wade for Madden.

And yeah, me and my friends meme about Alex Hunter for Smash since they revealed FIFA's storymode one E3 a long time ago.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Velvet Crowe from the Tales series.

Predict Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Tales of Berseria mood:


-----

Abstaining on Velvet.

3rd party double dip chance prediction: 18.33%

Nominations:
Trevor Philips x5
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,158
Location
Scotland
abstain, never played any tales game and could not tell you what this velvet crow even is. nom grunty x5
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,099
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
I'd post some artwork but the site refuses to let me so I'll just saw a snarky remark

VORE HAND

Chance: 1% Ok, so. Velvet. Velvet has a lot going against her, for starters, the big one. Popularity. Lloyd and Yuri outrank her popularity immensely, just recently, we found out what the 3 most popular Tales games were, Symphonia, Vesperia and... Destiny. Berseria missed out on the top 3. Berseria is also 5 years old with Arise coming out soon, so recency isn't on her side either. Berseria's indeed very much loved but most Tales games are positively received so Velvet really can't catch a break. The only, only way we'd get Velvet instead of the character who's been a Smash request for over a decade and the character banned from popularity polls is if Sakurai thought she'd be more interesting as a fighter and that being the most important thing to him and Nintendo.

Want: 100% Now, where do I begin? Velvet Crowe is one of my favourite protagonists in media, I remember how about a year and a half ago when I saw her for the first time and thought "Holy **** she looks badass what the hell happened to her?" I got the game on a sale and madr Berseria the first game I played in 2020, being surprised at just what happened to Velvet to turn her into Cristina Vee's usual roles into a broken mess, pretty much a female Guts but less brutal. Velvet amazed me at showing how badly you can break a character and impressed me at how good of a job it did at building her back up. All the characters were so wonderful om Berseria and I cannot stress enough how shocked I was at Cristina Vee voicing Velvet and actually being able to pull off more than her typical bubbly perky characters she gets typecast as, Velvet sounds as broken as you'd imagine her to be. Now, on to the actual 'what if she was in Smash' part of the rating. Velvet's primarily a dual wielder, having a sword pop out of an arm gauntlet and another sword pop out of a leg gauntlet, but the most eye catching part of her is her giant demonic claw that she's able to eat with. What this can mean is that Velvet can either work like Android 21 so that hitting someone with her Vore Hand gives her a new Special move depending on who she hit with that very move, just like how she'd get new finishing moves depending on the enemy type she hit with Devouring Claw. The other way to make this work is an install, because in Berseria, she was given a stat boost and super armour, but her HP would rapidly deplete until it hit 1, but she'd also heal when killing enemies. This sounds more plausible in terms of development and it sounds incredibly fun to maximize risk at the cost of a good reward. Also, as much as I love Berseria, I do not like the gameplay at all, this goes for any Tales game but I really want to play as Velvet in a game I enjoy playing. Does that make sense?

Zagreus x5
Beatrice x5
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,522
Location
Drenthe, NL
Velvet Crowe
Chance: 0.5%
It's really hard to see Velvet be the frontrunner of the Tales Of series when she's neither A. The most popular character B. The character highly requested for Smash or C. The character with recency on their side. In fact, I'm not holding my breath for a Tales of character to happen at this point. 3 spots in the pass being deticated to JRPG characters seems a bit much and I just feel Lloyd returning as a costume again will be the most that series will get. It's always still possible but I can't see Crowe as a fighter in any case.

Want: Abstaining


Double dip: 15.32%
Skullgirls rep x5
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,370
Not a purple bird

Chance: 5%

I can only echo what other people above me has said. Lloyd has the advantage of having a lot of popularity in the Smash community, having Sakurai's comments back him up (Although that was years ago so he could change his mind), and being from the best selling Tales Of game. Yuri has the advantage of being overwhelmingly popular to the point where they had to ban him from popularity polls and he has his game on the Switch. Velvet's main advantage was that her game was the most recent, but now we have a new Tales Of game coming out this year, and keep in mind that the game was planned to come out in 2020 if it weren't for Covid, so Nintendo likely knew about the game at the time that the pass was decided. Velvet's best chances would be if the new game was too far in the future for it to be considered, but this logic is a bit iffy due to the fact that Sakurai has a history of playing games long before they are released so depending on the development cycle of the new Tales Of game, this may or may not ruin her chances.

But either way I look at it, I still think that a Tales Of rep would most certainly either be Lloyd, Yuri, or the protagonist of the new game. Velvet currently has nothing that makes her stand out from the crowd. And that's assuming that we are getting a Tales character in the first place. They could just simply return Lloyd's costume and call it a day if they didn't want to prioritize Tales Of for the pass.

Want: 60%

At this point, I would be down for a Tales Of character in general. It's a great series with awesome music and memorable characters. Although I would still prefer Lloyd or Yuri as the Tales rep.

Prediction: 3rd party double dip - 25% (I'm expecting this to be highly debated)

Noms: Bill Rizer x10
 
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TheThingamajigRayman

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 18, 2020
Messages
211
Location
somewhere
Crowe:
Chance 2%
Welp, haven't heard of her until now, but turns out she's from the Tales Of series. That immediately puts something against her. Theres one thing in her way, and it's Lloyd. While it's not impossible they would choose Crowe, I just feel Lloyd is a more popular pick, and of course the whole "he's the last mii from Sm4sh so he might be a fighter", but I dunno. Her game is pretty recent as well. While it's not completely impossible, I'd see Lloyd happening first, a widely requested Smash pick, or even Yuri. But hey, she's a JRPG character, so that adds some points.

Want Abstain
Don't know enough about the series or character to fairly rate her, but what I will say is, there's plenty other NAMCO reps I'd prefer, like Klonoa or Agumon.

Noms: Sackboy x5
 
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BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,849
Location
winnipeg
Velvet Crow

Chance: 5%. Chances are, Lloyd would be the Tales of rep, and even then, Lloyd is more likely to return as a Mii Costume. Velvet however has a chance to be playable, but it’s a slim chance. However, her chance can increase in the sequel.

Want: 50%. She would be fun to play as, and I can see her fight Lucina and Link (Among others) in a Free for all. Overall, Velvet would make a decent Smash bros Rep.

Prediction: Third Party Double Dip (0%)

Noms: 5 for Garchomp
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Velvet Crowe

Chances: 0.5%

When it comes to good points for her, if we were to get a Tales Of rep that was neither Lloyd, Yuri, or Luke, I feel like it would be her. It could be my lack of knowledge about the series speaking, but from what I saw, she's pretty popular, and she's also still pretty relevant, even if Berseria is now 5 years old. After that... Nope, that's it. While Berseria is still relevant, it's also not the lattest Tales Of game, and both Symphonie and Vesperia outshines it in popularity, so if we were to get a Tales Of character, it would most likely be Lloyd or Yuri, or Luke considering he's the most popular character of the series according to the latest popularity poll. Also, there's how Velvet could not be a "good girl" for Smash, considering how her outfit is very revealing, more than even Pyra and Mythra, and while not on the level of Mai and I don't think that censoring her would be too much of a problem, it's also a reason to choose Lloyd, Yuri, or Luke over her. And also, I don't even think a Namco/Tales Of character is likely at this point to beign with.

Want: 80%

Velvet in Smash would be sick. While I'm not big on Tales Of, what I saw of Berseria was prety cool, and Velvet herself was a pretty cool character too. She could have a cool moveset with her devil arm, so that would be cool to see. Tales Of also has a really good soundtrack from what I heard of it, so it could be cool to get to hear in Smash, especialy if they go all out for it and include tracks from many games of the series. So yeah, Velvet in Smash would be really cool.

Nominations

Akira Howard x10

Predictions

Double dip (also known as Master Chief day 2.0): 14%
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Velvet Crowe

Chance: 1% -
Her tenure of being the most recent Tales of protagonist is on its way out, and if the Namco Happy New Year art is anything to go by, it's already over (they used the upcoming Tales of Arise protagonist to represent Tales of instead of her). Furthermore, Sakurai himself does still have some leverage over DLC characters, and if he were given a choice of a Tales of rep he'd more than likely go with Lloyd (though Velvet does place higher than him on popularity polls, and with Lloyd's Mii costume 99% likely to return, that does help her). On the other hand, there's Yuri Lowell, so popular that he had to be banned from popularity polls, huge in the Tales of fanbase, and his game is on Nintendo systems unlike Berseria, and on the Switch with a remaster no less. Basically, it's either appease the Tales of fans with Yuri or the Smash fans with Lloyd. And that doesn't even factor in the possibility of getting another Namco rep entirely like Chosen Undead, Prince of All Cosmos, Agumon, Nightmare, Don-chan, etc. So she's still possible but I don't see her as likely in any capacity.

Another thought I had: What if the second Namco rep is the final character of the pass? It'd make sense to end on a Thank You character to Namco to commemorate the partnership for two entries in the franchise!

Want: 5% - I will say her demon arm definitely makes for interesting moveset potential! Given the series' other offerings (the usual traditional JRPG swordsman fare), she does seem like a more appealing choice. But at the same time, if they have to pick a Tales rep I would technically rather see Lloyd, given a close friend of mine likes him and he's the one who's had years of fan demand. And even then, not only do I feel like JRPG characters already are over-represented in DLC (why are people so against variety?) but Namco has much more interesting offerings. One of which being my most wanted, The Prince of All Cosmos, so any Tales rep loses most points on competition alone. Namco seems to be averse to adding its' own characters, so their next rep is likely their last. Thus Velvet means no Prince, and that's a no no.


Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5
[Rerate] Louie x5

Predictions:
Third Party Double Dip - 22.82% - Expecting a lot of mixed scores, though with the Capcom costumes coming back, a lot of confidence in another Capcom rep has been shot and this concept's mascot, Chun-li, goes down with it. Though I can see Eggman backing the concept up.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
A murder of Crowe's (chances)

Chance: 3%
Velvet is a relatively popular character from a relatively popular game in a relatively popular series. In a vacuum, she's not too bad. But when you pit her against her competition it becomes clear that it's insurmountable. Her popularity is there, but she isn't the most popular protagonist, or anywhere close to. Her being the newest protagonist already took a hit when Vesperia got rereleased in 2019, but Tales of Arise puts the final nail in that coffin. It was in development since 2018, and due for release in 2020, meaning it would've been right in the middle of the Fighter Pass. Bandai Namco is developing Ultimate so Nintendo could've heard about its development. And as has been mentioned, despite the game's delayed release they still went ahead and made its characters the new face of the franchise. Mind you, I'm not saying I expect Tales to get a promotional character because I'm not, all I'm saying is if Nintendo wanted to go with the most recent one, they had other options.

Bottom line is, despite no major ports in over 6 years, Tales of Symphonia is still the best selling Tales game, and Lloyd is by far the most popular with the Smash fandom. Until one of those things change I think it'll be Lloyd or nothing for Tales. And I firmly believe Lloyd is getting a Mii Costume, so that's that for him and everyone else.

Want: 60%
She looks kinda cool, and I started Berseria and it seemed like she'd be going through an interesting character arc. But I'd rather get Lloyd for Tales, and a buncha other characters from Bandai Namco. Still she'd have a unique moveset, and I prefer her to Yuri who I have zero connection to.

Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Double dip prediction: 7.58%
 
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Pillow

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 20, 2013
Messages
1,268
Location
Los Angeles
Velvet Crowe

Chance - 15%
I'm going to go ahead and say I think she has a better chance than other people on this thread seem to. That said...it's still not very high. It seems for everything she has going for her, she has some equally deciding factor going against her. She's the main character of a Tales Game, and Tales is a massively huge franchise, probably the biggest JRPG not already represented in Smash (yay!) but she's not that popular compared to other Tales characters (boo!). She's the main character of the most recent installment of the franchise (yay!) but that game is now relatively old and a new game is on the horizon (boo!). Basically, I personally think that all the Smash 4 Costume characters are returning as costumes, and Lloyd will be returning in the next Fighter's Pass alongside a Namco characters. If that Namco character is a Tales character, there's a 95% chance it'll be Yuri, but Velvet still has some advantages when compared directly alongside him. She's a girl, which is good for more female representation. Her general fighting style is more distinct than Yuri's, especially when put next to Smash's huge roster of Fire Emblem and other JRPG sword characters, which is good especially considering we literally just had two anime swordfighters. So yeah, she has a chance.

Want - 70%
So, I believe Tales deserves a spot in Smash. It's a pretty big franchise, that's been around for a while, and isn't completely unknown in the West. However, I'm not really a fan of Yuri or Lloyd in Smash, because I think that visually they strike a lot of the same buttons as a lot of the existing Smash roster. If we are to get a Tales character, I'd rather it be Velvet (and Velvet does seem to be the #3 choice for Tales in general). She's cool, she's unique, she represents a new series. Despite the fact that I don't particularly care for Velvet herself (I found her character to be kind of cold and unrelatable in Berseria) she'd still be my choice.

Noms:
xMax FromSoft
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 589: Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass
Day 590: Agent 47 (Hitman)
Day 591: Excitebiker (Excite)
Day 592: Worms (Worms)
Day 593: Zagreus (Hades)
Day 594: Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo

Day 595: Concept: Far Cry rep

No surprises whatsoever in the schedule. Your new top seven consists of Billy & Jimmy Lee, Disgaea rep, Mike Haggar, Rallen, League of Legends rep, Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, and Tetra.


Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Concept: Disgaea rep x275
Mike Haggar x265
Rallen (Spectrobes) x255
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x225
Tetra x225

250 - 201

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Skullgirls rep x209

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Beatrice (Umineko) x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Ryza (Atelier) x170
Trevor Philips x165
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x160
Concept: From Software rep x160
Senator Armstrong x155

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Stage: Bowser's Castle x142
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x141
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Sackboy x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
[Rerate] Louie x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
[Rerate] Officer Howard x80
Meat Boy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Bill Rizer x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Garchomp x55

50 - 25

Gunvolt x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x40
Corvo Attano x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Tails x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Rean Schwarzer x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Todd Snap x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Skullgirls rep amasses 200 noms.

Garchomp devours 50 noms.

Your newcomers for today are Rean Schwarzer, with 10 noms, and Todd Snap, with 5.

Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen You might want to edit your nominations.
 

Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
Joined
Jul 1, 2014
Messages
63,099
Location
Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 589: Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass
Day 590: Agent 47 (Hitman)
Day 591: Excitebiker (Excite)
Day 592: Worms (Worms)
Day 593: Zagreus (Hades)
Day 594: Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo

Day 595: Concept: Far Cry rep

No surprises whatsoever in the schedule. Your new top seven consists of Billy & Jimmy Lee, Disgaea rep, Mike Haggar, Rallen, League of Legends rep, Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, and Tetra.


Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Concept: Disgaea rep x275
Mike Haggar x265
Rallen (Spectrobes) x255
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x225
Tetra x225

250 - 201

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Skullgirls rep x209

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Beatrice (Umineko) x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Ryza (Atelier) x170
Trevor Philips x165
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x160
Concept: From Software rep x160
Senator Armstrong x155

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Stage: Bowser's Castle x142
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x141
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Sackboy x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
[Rerate] Louie x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
[Rerate] Officer Howard x80
Meat Boy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Bill Rizer x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Garchomp x55

50 - 25

Gunvolt x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x40
Corvo Attano x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Tails x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Rean Schwarzer x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Todd Snap x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Skullgirls rep amasses 200 noms.

Garchomp devours 50 noms.

Your newcomers for today are Rean Schwarzer, with 10 noms, and Todd Snap, with 5.

Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen You might want to edit your nominations.
In that case put those 5 noms to Beatrice
 

fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,158
Location
Scotland
THESE CHARACTERS ARE LOCKED DOWN, NOMINATIONS FOR THEM ARE OBSOLETE

Day 589: Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass
Day 590: Agent 47 (Hitman)
Day 591: Excitebiker (Excite)
Day 592: Worms (Worms)
Day 593: Zagreus (Hades)
Day 594: Concept: Curly as Quote's alt/Echo

Day 595: Concept: Far Cry rep

No surprises whatsoever in the schedule. Your new top seven consists of Billy & Jimmy Lee, Disgaea rep, Mike Haggar, Rallen, League of Legends rep, Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo, and Tetra.


Billy & Jimmy Lee x285
Concept: Disgaea rep x275
Mike Haggar x265
Rallen (Spectrobes) x255
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x232
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x225
Tetra x225

250 - 201

Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: Skullgirls rep x209

200 - 151

[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x200
Estelle Bright x185
Beatrice (Umineko) x180
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Ryza (Atelier) x170
Trevor Philips x165
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x160
Concept: From Software rep x160
Senator Armstrong x155

150 - 101

Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Stage: Bowser's Castle x142
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x141
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Sackboy x125
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x118
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
Fulgore x107

100 - 51

Stage: Tetris x100
[Rerate] Louie x100
Echo (Bowser) x95
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
[Rerate] Officer Howard x80
Meat Boy x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Bill Rizer x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
Garchomp x55

50 - 25

Gunvolt x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x40
Corvo Attano x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
[Rerate] Tails x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25

Under 25

Regigigas x20
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x20
Concept: Danganronpa protagonist x20
Yarn Yoshi x15
[Rerate] Shovel Knight x15
Tetris x10
Slash Kamei (Snowboard Kids) x10
[Rerate] Yuri Lowell x10
Jesse (Control) x10
Infernape x10
[Rerate] Gex x10
[Rerate] Concept: Echo Fighters Pass x10
[Rerate] Q*Bert x10
[Rerate] Ryu Hayabusa x10
Rean Schwarzer x10
[Rerate] Brian x7
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
[Rerate] Lara Croft x5
Stage: Tetris 99 x5
Concept: Raizing shmup rep x5
Donbe and Hikari x5
Soma Cruz x5
Concept: KOS-MOS with T-elos alt x5
[Rerate] Master Hand x5
Pyramid Head x5
[Rerate] Elma x5
Octoling x5
Todd Snap x5
Firebrand x1

Concept: Skullgirls rep amasses 200 noms.

Garchomp devours 50 noms.

Your newcomers for today are Rean Schwarzer, with 10 noms, and Todd Snap, with 5.

Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen You might want to edit your nominations.
is todd snap allowed? he debuted in the anime
 

Lionfranky

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Predictions:
Third Party Double Dip - 22.82% - Expecting a lot of mixed scores, though with the Capcom costumes coming back, a lot of confidence in another Capcom rep has been shot and this concept's mascot, Chun-li, goes down with it. Though I can see Eggman backing the concept up.
Unless you expect Sega to take CP 10 and 11 in a row, they don't count. As of now, It's on Square Enix and Microsoft unless you believe a new 3rd party company takes both slots in a row.
 

TCT~Phantom

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It looks like he did. Was it an advertisement for the game, like with Lucario? Or did he exist long before Snap was a thing?
Doing my research, his anime debut was about 9 months before Snaps Japanese release. Granted, the game was likely in development at least around the same time as a Pokémon game. Snap’s development cycle was really weird, but based on my research it would make sense that based on the timeline, his creation for the game might have come first, even if his debut was in the anime.

Personally, I lean in favor.
 

DrifloonEmpire

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Unless you expect Sega to take CP 10 and 11 in a row, they don't count. As of now, It's on Square Enix and Microsoft unless you believe a new 3rd party company takes both slots in a row.
Ah, looks like I misunderstood the concept. ^^;
Yeah, I don't expect Square Enix to get another character at this point, and it took along enough to negotiate Steve (with Banjo slipping in), I personally don't think there's enough room right now for a third Microsoft character.
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

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Oct 9, 2019
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Angry Mom (Velvet Crowe):
Chance: 2%

With Tales of Arise becoming the frontrunner for the Tales series' recency rep, Velvet's practically done. She might have a high spot in the popularity polls, but I honestly can't see her getting in over Lloyd, Yuri, or the Arise protagonist. Lloyd's more wanted by Smash fans, while the Tales fandom prefer Yuri. Sure, Berseria is still relevant (and good), and Velvet does certainly have a better chance than other Tales reps, but honestly, I think it's Lloyd, Yuri or nothing for Tales. Furthermore, we already have not one (Joker), nor two (DQ Hero), but THREE AND A HALF (Pyra/Mythra) JRPG reps (Byleth and Sephiroth could count, too). I highly doubt we'll get four.

And this is Bandai Namco we're talking. Who's to say we won't get Chosen Undead, or Prince of All Cosmos. or Nightmare/Siegfried?

Want: 40%
As the FP slots get filled, more and more do I see myself favoring a certain bullet-dodging shrine maiden over everyone else. That said, I definitely do think the Tales franchise deserves a rep...but if someone pointed a gun at my head and told me to pick one Tales rep to get into Smash, my pick would be Yuri. Sorry, Velvet, you're really cool, but I have a stronger personal connection with Vesperia.

That's not to say I wouldn't like Velvet in Smash. Pugilist with claws, cursed arm? Mom material?! Sign me up.

Predictions: Third Party double dip: 4.2%
After Sephiroth, I highly doubt we're gonna get another double dip.

Noms: Corvo Attano x10
 

NintenRob

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I'd personally allow Tod Snap, Pokemon is in a weird situation in general. Like yeah characters debut in the anime, but its still a video game franchise. And Smash already takes a lot of influence the anime, Ash was straight up name dropped once.

Heck, I'd genuinely love to see Team Rockets Jessie and James. They already have influence in Smash with Star KOs likely coming from them.
 

Bobthealligator

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Does anyone actually think about how high a probability 5% is when they're rating these characters? 5% means said character is in the top 20 most likely characters, which given how many characters could get in Smash, I seriously doubt some of these characters are that high.
 

DanganZilla5

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Does anyone actually think about how high a probability 5% is when they're rating these characters? 5% means said character is in the top 20 most likely characters, which given how many characters could get in Smash, I seriously doubt some of these characters are that high.
I don't think a lot of people look at it like that. A 5% will mean different things for different people. Not to mention there is a fallacy with this logic. For example, I can look at 20 different characters that I've given a 5% to. That doesn't mean that I think that there is a 100% that one of those 20 characters will make it in. Generally we rate these characters chances by themselves, not in a ratio compared to other characters.

I am at work now so I have to end it here but I hope I made my point clear.
 

Bobthealligator

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Not to mention there is a fallacy with this logic. For example, I can look at 20 different characters that I've given a 5% to. That doesn't mean that I think that there is a 100% that one of those 20 characters will make it in. Generally we rate these characters chances by themselves, not in a ratio compared to other characters.

I am at work now so I have to end it here but I hope I made my point clear.
That's kind of my point though
 

Flyboy

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Velvet Crowe
Chance:
15%
Tales Of is in an interesting position as the Lloyd Mii costume is the only one from the original Smash 4 DLC wave left. However, as we've seen, that doesn't always mean...anything. I think there's a ton of merit to Tales Of as a series as it's one of the biggest RPGs not yet in Smash and it'd be amazing to see the Big Four RPG series' finally meet in a single game. It's also worth noting that Lloyd got a costume last game in the first place, like, not a lot of series' got Mii costumes. But it's tough to say whether Tales Of will be repped at all, especially with the X factor of Heihachi's costume already returning (meaning Bandai-Namco has already been represented this wave). It's a big question mark.

Velvet herself also may have decent popularity, uniqueness, and recency on her side, but she's not one of the most popular characters or in one of the most popular Tales Of games. So she's a strong shot that has more going for her than some of the other protagonists, but not enough to immediately take out the heavy hitters like Lloyd, Yuri, or even Luke if recent polls are any indication. It's an uphill battle for Tales Of and for her.

Want: 100%
So, she's actually not my most-most-wanted Tales Of rep (that would be Ludger from Tales of Xillia 2) but she's damn close. Tales of Berseria is a fantastic game, one of the best in the series with an incredible cast, and Velvet herself is such a deep, unique character. She's hurt, she's angry, she's had her whole peaceful life stolen from her and while she lets that bitterness and anger drive her she hides underneath all that fury and pain a tortured soul who wishes she could do the right thing. The world is cruel, so she has to be cruel back, but desperately wishes she didn't have to be...

She's also such a cool character in terms of fighting style. She has her hidden blades, her demonic hand that consumes all, and she has a vicious yet flashy fighting style, almost an animalistic flair. She would both bring all the amazing things Tales Of has to offer like great music and a huge enduring series legacy and also a unique, fun character type we don't really have as a more brutal hard-hitting female. There's no downsides to me.

Nominations: Beatrice x10
 

SharkLord

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I think there's a ton of merit to Tales Of as a series as it's one of the biggest RPGs not yet in Smash and it'd be amazing to see the Big Four RPG series' finally meet in a single game.
Out of curiosity, that's Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, and Tales, right? I'm used to just FF/DQ/Tales as the Big Three, seeing as Pokemon feels more like a monster collector than the standard "anime dudes with swords and fantasy" JRPG image.
 

Flyboy

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Out of curiosity, that's Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, and Tales, right? I'm used to just FF/DQ/Tales as the Big Three, seeing as Pokemon feels more like a monster collector than the standard "anime dudes with swords and fantasy" JRPG image.
Honestly in my head Persona/SMT counts with its recent explosion of popularity in the JRPG circles and P5 seen as something of a modern classic (and very obviously influencing a ton of games that came after). It's a personal thing for me - I love the idea that we could get these huge, influential series' all meeting.
 

Inue Houji

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Velvet Crowe
Want: 60%
Wow, I somehow managed to get through the game in time :080:

I only started playing this game on the 5th of this month, and have already racked up over 110 hours. That's over 4 hours per day on average. So somehow I'm just about to head into the final dungeon, after doing pretty much 100% of pre-postgame content.
I have too much time on my hands these days......

Anyway, she's cool, and is probably my favorite Tales protagonist so far. She'd have a cool moveset, and with her demon arm, she'd be the closest I'm gonna get to DMC4 Nero.
Still, though I can't even remember much of Lloyd's personality, he's still my preferred pick for a Tales character. The nostalgia factor is strong.

Chance: 1%
Unfortunately her chances are low. A Tales character is likely, but it most probably will be Lloyd. The only other realistic possibility would be Yuri or the Tales of Arise protagonist.
She's neither the fan favorite, nor is she from the newest game anymore, so things are looking grim.


Predictions
2nd third party character: 17.8%

Nominations
Rallen x10
 
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Dan Quixote

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Out of curiosity, that's Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Pokemon, and Tales, right? I'm used to just FF/DQ/Tales as the Big Three, seeing as Pokemon feels more like a monster collector than the standard "anime dudes with swords and fantasy" JRPG image.
While Pokémon does have a lot of unique features and it LOOKS really different from your standard turn-based RPG... it's also a pretty standard turn-based RPG when you get down to the nitty-gritty gameplay. Like you level up the Pokémon, you customize which attacks they have and what gear they carry, you take turns using D&D style speed stats. I think it could easily be one of the Big Number by gameplay similarities alone.
 

ShotoStar

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Velvet Crowe (Tales Of):

Chance: 15%

When it comes to Tales Of in general I think it's... Fairly possible to get a character, Lloyd's mii costume is the last hangover from Smash Bros Wii U/3DS and, of course that could mean absolutely nothing as we've seen a few times before (Geno and Heihachi :drsad:), but it's a bit odd that Lloyd is the only surviving one which could indicate either a Tales Of character or Lloyd himself joining.

Assuming the latter I think Velvet Crowe is... not too likely but possible. I'd say she's like the third most likely Tales Of choice behind Yuri Lowell and Lloyd Irving himself. Still of the opinion that Lloyd would be the choice due to him having fan demand going back a decade and Symphonia being arguably the most iconic Tales Of game, Arguably the Tales Of game.

Yuri could also be chosen due to his overwhelming popularity going so far as being banned from popularity polls due to his fan-favorite status (link) and Tales of Vesperia being on Switch which they could push and the Tales of Vesperia remake being... fairly relevant. Dude has relevancy and popularity on his side, Maybe not so much as the "Iconic Status" as Lloyd but he's just as likely as Lloyd. He's up there.

Now... for Velvet? Let's start with the bad; She's nowhere near as relevant as Yuri Lowell is nowadays as her game came out in 2016 or at latest 2017 with the Windows release and comparatively Yuri just recently got his game remade in 2019. Nor is her game as iconic as Lloyd's when it comes to Tales Of Games.

nor is she as popular as either of the previous two characters as a character in the series (see previous poll and compare to Yuri) or as a Smash Pick (Lloyd being deemed a "fan favorite" Smash pick).

She's not as relevant, iconic (in case of Lloyd) or as popular as either of the previously mentioned BUT what she lacks in those areas she makes up for in uniqueness and creativity compared to the former two. She could have a much more interesting move set that involves her Demon Hand thing and creativity is very much so important to Sakurai and Co. (They put in a Piranha Plant for the sake of flexing their creativity for gods sake).

She could offer that up in spades and while she's not the most relevant Tales Of protag at this point she's still somewhat relevant even if her relevancy lacks in comparison to Yuri or any other protag that came afterwards she's still has a fair amount of relevancy and as shown with Pythra they could've gone with a XC:DE character but went back to XC2 and the situation is somewhat comparable here I think... I think. They could've gone with a Remake Character but didn't.

Anyways enough rambling; She's fairly likely with relevancy (albeit not the most relevant) and uniqueness on her side but compared to Yuri or Lloyd I still don't think she quite matches up. She's like the third most likely Tales Of character in my opinion but nothing more and it'd take a hell of a miracle for her to be chosen, even assuming we get Tales Of representation at all.


Want: 15%

I don't particularly care for any Tales Of characters in Smash but if I had to choose a choice for Smash it'd be either her, or my personal Tales Of choice (albeit again I don't care too much), Yuri Lowell. Lloyd is in all honesty a bit... boring, to me. He's fine but there's better Tales Of picks and none of the ideas for his move set really get me pumped up.

I'd much rather have Yuri or Velvet as the Tales Of choice if we were to get one but overall I still don't care too much, Her design is nice though and she could be fun I guess... I guess.

Nominations:
Beatrice (Umineko) x5
 

Jomosensual

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Velvet Crowe

Chance 1 - Not seeing why Crowe would get in over Yuri or the big hitter from the series Lloyd. Yuri has been highly popular for a while now. Lloyd also has the fan requests and the most ties to smash so far with a Mii Costume and Sakurai saying he's the best pick for the series. Unless things have changed I don't think Velv is in the running. There's a solid chance that's the case now. Overall don't expect to see any BN characters coming to Ultimate anymore either.

Want 50 - Wouldnt care either way. I think I'd prefer to have Lloyd but I have no connection to the Tales of series to make me pick. There's some solid reasons to add both. I think I'd rather get someone else from Namco overall but this isn't a bad pick by any means. Could go much worse in my opinion

Predictions
2 3rd parties - 19.42

Noms:
Bioshock Protagonist x10
 
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