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Abstain, I don't feel like writing some lines about irrelevance and there being far more relevant and popular first party character they could put in instead, even in the unlikely event the url theory does happen to be not only true but also for an extra fighter.
Excitebike was released in 1984 for the Famicom and then ported to arcades as Vs. Excitebike later on in the same year. In North America it was released in the arcades in 1985 then released for the NES later the same year. Excitebike is actually the first game in the Excite series, which also consists of its sequels Excitebike 64, Excite Truck, Excitebots: Trick Racing, and Excitebike World Rally. The sequels were received positively, but it is mostly the original that is referenced and beloved.
Speaking of, the first Excitebike is a classic. As a launch title for the NES it showed off what the hardware was capable of, with fast speeds and detailed graphics for the time. The game was a financial and critical success and is still being acknowledged by Nintendo with them porting the game to many of their systems and even having a Excitebike race track in Mario Kart 8. Excitebike is also referenced in Super Mario Maker via a costume and the Excite series has content throughout the Smash series (even having an assist trophy in Brawl…oh why oh why did you not bring that back Sakurai?).
Now, would Nintendo choose Excitebiker? Honestly I doubt it. The Excite series has not gotten a game in over a decade and it feels decently represented with a spirit and two tracks (The Mario Kart 8 remix and an Excite Truck song….though still no assist trophy which was so cool). There is not much incentive for Nintendo to go with this and at this point Excitebike feels like it is one of those games that will remain in the past and there is nothing pointing towards Nintendo being interested in a full blown remake. It is true that Sakurai considered Excitebiker in the past, but there is also the elephant in the room in that Excitebiker feels more like a base roster pick rather than a DLC pick. Overall, if I had to predict a first party for one of the final two characters, this character would not be close to the top of my predictions list.
Want: 75%
With all that said, there is something appealing about this choice. When you think of classic retro Nintendo games, Excitebike is one of them and while it hasn’t aged that well, it is still fun to play from time to time. The idea of a fighter who is constantly stuck to their bike sounds like a unique addition and I would love to see how Sakurai pulls it off. Not one of my top choices for a DLC spot, but there is a part of me that finds this amusing and an Excitebike stage would be the cherry on top.
Chance-3%
Nintendo seems to be fine with referencing old IPs (except Paper Mario), and Excitebike is no exception. Nintendo even dedicated one of its DLC Mario Kart 8 tracks to it. And Excitebikers haven't been bought back as assist trophies in a while. However, that's where the benefits end. I don't feel that Excitebiker really stands a chance in this DLC. First, Excitebiker isn't very requested. Second, Excitebiker was literally cut from Melee because Sakurai couldn't figure out to make him jump. I don't really see how Excitebiker has a shot. Besides the MK8 track, Excitebiker really hasn't been referenced anywhere else outside of Smash Bros. It's probably been mentioned before, but Excitebiker would be much more likely if it was the base roster we were talking about.
Want-95%
Excitebiker feels like the true retro rep for Smash. It was an NES launch title that would really make sense to see represented in Smash with a fighter. People would probably hate that Excitebiker was added over Crash Bandicoot, but I would just be gushing about the entire situation. Plus, who wouldn't want to see Sephiroth get run over by a random dude on a bike? Think about that.
Chance: 5%
When one looks at the last two fighters in a Smash game's roster, it helps to think outside the box. It's been pointed out that Ultimate has no retro rep, and so it could potentially be coming as DLC. It makes sense, even if I'm not sure Nintendo themselves would care about it that much barring a specific business interest. But hey, in the realm of the retro, Excitebiker has a lot going for him. For one, the franchise isn't strictly retro as it got new entries up until the Wii era. But also, it was a big success for Nintendo, and is easily one of the most iconic NES games period. And Sakurai has considered him as a fighter before, which really helps if this is "the second chances Pass" as many theorize. I don't think that's enough to make Excitebiker the absolute frontrunner for the retro category; he could use a dedicated fan push like Mach Rider, Lip, Takamaru, etc. and I think Balloon Fighter has him matched in significance. Still, not too bad.
Call me when Excitebiker 99 gets announced though. Easy 50%+ right there.
Want: 100%
You know me, I love Nintendo and I love classic games. This is a no-brainer. A fighter that's on a vehicle all the time is a concept I need to see Sakurai tackle someday. At the very least I'd like to get a stage because what MK8 did with Excitebiker in 3D was glorious.
(Oh, and as for Mach Rider, yes I find her cooler but I envision her as a Fist of the North Star take on Captain Falcon that at most uses her bike like Dante does so they can coexist)
My go to for a retro pick, but at this point I'm not sure I want one. There's only two fighters left (maybe 3?) and I can't see either going to this. I'm still shocked how little we have from this franchise though. If Ultimate focused more on new stages instead of old ones, I'm sure we would have seen Excitebike arena stage.
Beatrice (Umineko) x335
Concept: Disgaea rep x325
Rallen (Spectrobes) x300
Billy & Jimmy Lee x290
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Skullgirls rep x254
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x250
250 - 201
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x237
Tetra x225
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Trevor Philips x215
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x205
Ryza (Atelier) x205
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x201
200 - 151
Estelle Bright x195
Concept: From Software rep x190
Senator Armstrong x185
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x185
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Bill Rizer x155
Stage: Bowser's Castle x152
150 - 101
Sackboy x150
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
[Rerate] Louie x110
Meat Boy x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105
100 - 51
Stage: Tetris x100
Echo (Bowser) x100
Corvo Attano x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Gunvolt x70
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x65
Todd Snap x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Garchomp x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
50 - 25
Rean Schwarzer x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
[Rerate] Tails x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x25
Chance 10 - Think he/she/they has a solid shot for a retro rep if we get a DLC one. A lot of the other retro reps contenders are either assist trophies, repped by stages, or deconfirmed in a lot of other ways. Excitebiker, unless I'm brain farting badly right now, isn't in any real jeopardy due to any of that. The big issue here is that I can't see a retro rep showing up with the last 2(3?) spots. E3 will likely be a big 3rd name. The final spot will likely go to a game currently being promoted. And if the bonus character theory comes true that'll probably be someone who can't bring a ton of extra content like Waluigi or Dixie Kong. Unless pass 3 happens it just doesn't feel like there's any room right now for them.
Want 50 - No real connection to the game or character. That being said, there is something very satisfying about seeing retro characters getting their models completely upgraded to modern designs. So for that reason alone I wouldn't mind it at all. There might be a few other retro reps I'd like instead but I don't think I'd object to the Biker being in Smash.
Oh man, poor fella. Before Ultimate, the idea of a Retro Rep was a common talking point in Smash. There have been many candidates, and Excitebiker is a notable one. For one, he had the honor of being actually considered for Melee, but was turned down in favor of the Ice Climbers, why? Because Sakurai could not find a way for him to Jump.
....yeah. Honestly i don't see this as an issue anymore, Sakurai would later have ground-exclusive characters jump so i can see Excitebiker jumping, it may look stupid, but so does the Devil Car (that one car enemy from Smash Run, which had never showed any sign of Jumping in the Earthbound games)
If we speak about Merit, Excitebike is up there with Punch Out when it comes to B-Tier Nintendo franchises. It was a major hit on the NES that is still remembered to this day, it got sequels on the Satellaview (a Japan exclusive SNES add-on) Nintendo Sixty Four, the WiiWare, and even two Spin-Offs for the Wii: Excite Truck and Excite Bots.
When it comes to "Retro Reps", one of the main issue most of them suffer from is obscurity due to regional exclusive (Lip and Mike Jones) or simply ever becoming a major player in Nintendo's catalogue. Excitebiker is one of the few notable examples that i can think of where neither applies. Sure, the series never became a token Nintendo stand out, but it's clear they treasure this franchise as an historical footprint. Countless references can be seen in the likes of Warioware, it was a chosen game for the NES Classic and was ported to the GBA and Virtual Console and Arcades, it got a Mario Kart 8 DLC track alongside LEGEND OF ZELDA AND ANIMAL CROSSING, it was a costume in Mario Maker 1, and even despite never becoming playable in Smash he still got as an Assist Trophy in Brawl (although ONLY in Brawl). I think it's up there with Duck Hunt and Balloon Fight as NES games that still got a giant legacy despite never being huge franchises, and that is respectable. (although the reason is so references is likely because Miyamoto Directed it)
Hell, since he is no longer an AT, he does not have to suffer from the Assist Curse, nor is he in a similar situation to Balloon Fighter (since Villager's UP B basically disqualifies him) and since Spirits do not disqualify you for DLC, Excitebiker could easily bring a Fighter Pack with him with a full-on Stage with Spirits and music from Excitebike NES, Sixty Four, Excite Trucks and Bots!
......too bad i don't see it happening due to the current Direction Smash is going. Not only did Smash basically passed over the idea of a "Retro" rep in the base game (due to the roster having most of its resources focusing on bringing all veterans back) Smash Ult's DLC comes in two flavors: Third Party, or Nintendo character that comes from recent Switch game, and because of that, the circumstances show me that his merits do not matter in this situation. Not happening in this game, maybe next time.
Want: 70%
Oh yeah please. I always LOVED the idea of Retro Reps in Smash, even when it is a character i don't care about like Duck Hunt. I just love old school Nintendo characters coming into action.
I did enjoy the original Excitebike, and i can see a moveset easily being made for this guy, plus he would come with a kick ass stage. I do have to admit im more of a Balloon Figher guy myself (**** you Villager) but this is my second choice.
Noms: Gunvolt X10
Velvet Crowe
4.57% Chance - 57.50% Want
The last time we rated her she got 14.24% chance and 39.79% want. It seems that no longer being the newest protagonist, and the chances of her series as a whole being in doubt, hurt her, but look at that want growth! At least she has managed to cement herself as Tales' third option for now.
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji
by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 2.60%
Goku
4.04% Chance - 34.46% Want
The majority of you took the rating seriously, but Goku did get one 100% chance score. Since this rating is meaningless, whatever, but for the sake of trivia: take that out and Goku gets 0.21% chance. Hell, technically, even the second highest score (5%) is a statistical outlier (the third highest is 0.1%); take that out and Goku gets a (rounded up) chance score of 0.01%. But it isn't, and so I get to start a new category: the Less Likely Than Goku list, where everyone who has the dishonor of falling below 4.04% chance gets listed. Behold!
Brash the Bear 0.00%
Unsafe Wiimote Guy 0.00%
Echo: 27e 0.01%
The Stretchers 0.03%
Henry Stickmin 0.06%
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies 0.10%
Echo: Xion 0.10%
T-Rex Runner 0.14%
Nathan Drake 0.19%
Specter Knight 0.20%
Bubsy 0.21%
Merric 0.25%
Captain Rainbow 0.29%
Marina Liteyears 0.32%
Concept: Among Us character 0.33%
Professor Hector 0.42%
Bonkers 0.43%
Vectorman 0.43%
Aloy 0.46%
Baldi 0.48%
Moogle 0.54%
DeMille 0.57%
Dark Matter 0.61%
Ryota Hayami 0.66%
Protector 0.66%
Boss: Kracko 0.69%
Nero Claudius 0.70%
Amiya 0.72%
Papyrus 0.73%
Sunflower 0.75%
Glover 0.80%
Hat Kid 0.85%
Billy Hatcher 0.85%
Reaper 0.87%
Rundas 0.89%
Gnar 0.89%
Magikarp 0.90%
Ellie 0.90%
Arthas Menethil 0.91%
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) 0.92%
Guardian 0.92%
Blaze the Cat 0.93%
Xurkitree 0.97%
Q*Bert 1.00%
Falinks 1.00%
Brian 1.02%
Sly Cooper 1.04%
Francis York Morgan 1.08%
The Blob 1.14%
Chibi-Robo 1.21%
Grovyle 1.29%
Segata Sanshiro 1.30%
Louie 1.30%
Melmetal 1.32%
Kyle Hyde 1.38%
Concept: Second F-Zero rep 1.43%
Hornet 1.45%
The Horrible Goose 1.47%
Concept: DLC music packs 1.57%
Alex Mason 1.57%
Neptune 1.60%
9-Volt 1.64%
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content 1.64%
Ravio 1.65%
Concept: Devolver Digital rep 1.66%
Kratos 1.71%
Ninten 1.72%
Shy Guy 1.74%
Crono 1.80%
Black Knight 1.83%
Gene 1.84%
Micaiah 1.85%
Concept: Atari rep 1.92%
Katalina 1.93%
Mimikyu 1.94%
Lycanroc 1.96%
Cynthia 2.08%
Barbara the Bat 2.13%
Obstagoon 2.18%
Decidueye 2.22%
RAY 2.23%
Meowth 2.28%
John Marston 2.30%
Beat 2.43%
Hades 2.46%
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume 2.48%
Toad 2.59%
Frisk 2.59%
Shuichi Saihara 2.60%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 2.62%
Crypto 2.67%
Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume 2.81%
Carl Johnson 2.94%
Sirfetch'd 2.99%
Saki Amamiya 3.00%
Thrall 3.07%
Concept: Style Savvy rep 3.13%
Celica 3.19%
Klonoa 3.28%
Mach Rider 3.29%
Nate Adams 3.32%
Metal Sonic 3.34%
Takamaru 3.36%
Reporter & Wrestler 3.40%
Qbby 3.47%
Lyn 3.50%
Morrigan Aensland 3.53%
The Boss 3.57%
Cadence 3.59%
Ryo Hazuki 3.59%
Adeleine 3.70%
Prince of Persia 3.75%
Miriam 3.77%
Gex 3.91%
****ing Tidus 3.96%
Want though, is another story. People, as expected, were all over the place, with tons of zeroes and hundos. What did surprise me was seeing some more nuanced scores and ratings (35-65) with mentions of things like wanting his moveset to represent only his game appearances, preferring other 4th party characters or even other Dragon Ball characters. This shows that some people have really thought this through, but also that it's likely that the community will never agree on the matter of non-videogame characters and that there might be no way of pleasing even just the people who are okay with them.
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass
16.74% Chance - 56.54% Want
With a want score in the 50s you'd think this would have been polarizing, but actually most people are pretty ambivalent to this. Even the scores at the extremes mostly cited the likelihood of their personal most wanteds as the reason, so it looks like nobody is for or against this in principle.
The winner of predictions was again Inue Houji
this time with 17.80%
Agent 47
5.59% Chance - 51.00% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5
with 5.50%
chances: 1% at this point i dont think we're getting a retro character. sakurai did consider him for melee but ruled out cause he couldnt think how to make the bike jump. which suggests he either didnt think to have him off the bike or thought he shouldnt be off the bike. sakurai's logic for retro characters was bit double standardy anyway so i doubt this logic will hold in the long run. it might hold for the excite biker but maybe not everyone. my instinct is that sakurai isnt bothered with retro characters this time and if he was i dont see him putting one in the pass.
want: 50% id be alright. i couldnt really get into excite bike as a game but i do love retro nintendo characters in smash. the potential bizarre moveset would appeal to me. but even among retro characters theres others id prefer. still itd be great addition to the roster and plenty of fun to play as. the amiibo would be quite nice too. stage might be good but i dont think i can go scrolling through another list of the "others" again.
Velvet Crowe
4.57% Chance - 57.50% Want
The last time we rated her she got 14.24% chance and 39.79% want. It seems that no longer being the newest protagonist, and the chances of her series as a whole being in doubt, hurt her, but look at that want growth! At least she has managed to cement herself as Tales' third option for now.
The winner of predictions was Inue Houji
by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 2.60%
Goku
4.04% Chance - 34.46% Want
The majority of you took the rating seriously, but Goku did get one 100% chance score. Since this rating is meaningless, whatever, but for the sake of trivia: take that out and Goku gets 0.21% chance. Hell, technically, even the second highest score (5%) is a statistical outlier (the third highest is 0.1%); take that out and Goku gets a (rounded up) chance score of 0.01%. But it isn't, and so I get to start a new category: the Less Likely Than Goku list, where everyone who has the dishonor of falling below 4.04% chance gets listed. Behold!
Brash the Bear 0.00%
Unsafe Wiimote Guy 0.00%
Echo: 27e 0.01%
The Stretchers 0.03%
Henry Stickmin 0.06%
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies 0.10%
Echo: Xion 0.10%
T-Rex Runner 0.14%
Nathan Drake 0.19%
Specter Knight 0.20%
Bubsy 0.21%
Merric 0.25%
Captain Rainbow 0.29%
Marina Liteyears 0.32%
Concept: Among Us character 0.33%
Professor Hector 0.42%
Bonkers 0.43%
Vectorman 0.43%
Aloy 0.46%
Baldi 0.48%
Moogle 0.54%
DeMille 0.57%
Dark Matter 0.61%
Ryota Hayami 0.66%
Protector 0.66%
Boss: Kracko 0.69%
Nero Claudius 0.70%
Amiya 0.72%
Papyrus 0.73%
Sunflower 0.75%
Glover 0.80%
Hat Kid 0.85%
Billy Hatcher 0.85%
Reaper 0.87%
Rundas 0.89%
Gnar 0.89%
Magikarp 0.90%
Ellie 0.90%
Arthas Menethil 0.91%
Concept: Civilization series stage with music (Standalone) 0.92%
Guardian 0.92%
Blaze the Cat 0.93%
Xurkitree 0.97%
Q*Bert 1.00%
Falinks 1.00%
Brian 1.02%
Sly Cooper 1.04%
Francis York Morgan 1.08%
The Blob 1.14%
Chibi-Robo 1.21%
Grovyle 1.29%
Segata Sanshiro 1.30%
Louie 1.30%
Melmetal 1.32%
Kyle Hyde 1.38%
Concept: Second F-Zero rep 1.43%
Hornet 1.45%
The Horrible Goose 1.47%
Concept: DLC music packs 1.57%
Alex Mason 1.57%
Neptune 1.60%
9-Volt 1.64%
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content 1.64%
Ravio 1.65%
Concept: Devolver Digital rep 1.66%
Kratos 1.71%
Ninten 1.72%
Shy Guy 1.74%
Crono 1.80%
Black Knight 1.83%
Gene 1.84%
Micaiah 1.85%
Concept: Atari rep 1.92%
Katalina 1.93%
Mimikyu 1.94%
Lycanroc 1.96%
Cynthia 2.08%
Barbara the Bat 2.13%
Obstagoon 2.18%
Decidueye 2.22%
RAY 2.23%
Meowth 2.28%
John Marston 2.30%
Beat 2.43%
Hades 2.46%
Concept: A non-videogame character gets a Mii Costume 2.48%
Toad 2.59%
Frisk 2.59%
Shuichi Saihara 2.60%
Noctis Lucis Caelum 2.62%
Crypto 2.67%
Concept: Coco as Crash's Echo/Costume 2.81%
Carl Johnson 2.94%
Sirfetch'd 2.99%
Saki Amamiya 3.00%
Thrall 3.07%
Concept: Style Savvy rep 3.13%
Celica 3.19%
Klonoa 3.28%
Mach Rider 3.29%
Nate Adams 3.32%
Metal Sonic 3.34%
Takamaru 3.36%
Reporter & Wrestler 3.40%
Qbby 3.47%
Lyn 3.50%
Morrigan Aensland 3.53%
The Boss 3.57%
Cadence 3.59%
Ryo Hazuki 3.59%
Adeleine 3.70%
Prince of Persia 3.75%
Miriam 3.77%
Gex 3.91%
****ing Tidus 3.96%
Want though, is another story. People, as expected, were all over the place, with tons of zeroes and hundos. What did surprise me was seeing some more nuanced scores and ratings (35-65) with mentions of things like wanting his moveset to represent only his game appearances, preferring other 4th party characters or even other Dragon Ball characters. This shows that some people have really thought this through, but also that it's likely that the community will never agree on the matter of non-videogame characters and that there might be no way of pleasing even just the people who are okay with them.
Concept: A 3rd party company gets more than one fighter in the same pass
16.74% Chance - 56.54% Want
With a want score in the 50s you'd think this would have been polarizing, but actually most people are pretty ambivalent to this. Even the scores at the extremes mostly cited the likelihood of their personal most wanteds as the reason, so it looks like nobody is for or against this in principle.
The winner of predictions was again Inue Houji
this time with 17.80%
Agent 47
5.59% Chance - 51.00% Want
The winner of predictions was DanganZilla5
with 5.50%
These want scores are way higher than I would have expected and that is freaking awesome. Even if it doesn’t seem all that likely, it’s cool that a lot of people are actually itching for a new retro character. I’m also surprised that so many like the idea of a fighter being tethered to a bike. I remember just a few years ago most people were saying that it couldn’t work. It’s cool to see so many people on board with the idea.
These want scores are way higher than I would have expected and that is freaking awesome. Even if it doesn’t seem all that likely, it’s cool that a lot of people are actually itching for a new retro character.
Personally, I find the title of "retro" to be pretty worthless. Either I'm interested in a character or I'm not, and the year their game came out doesn't matter much to me.
But yeah, a character fighting on a motorcycle is just cool. I'd prefer Makoto from P5, but we take what we can get.
Excitebiker Chance: 0.1%
There's not that much to say here. Although it has a few merits. Firstly, it's a first party IP, and that's always a huge boon. It was one of the best selling games on the NES, and the N64 game beat Mario Party 3 in sales.
That's sadly where it ends though.
It's pretty irrelevant nowadays, with the latest game selling less than 400k copies on the Wii. While that might not sound too bad, bear in mind, the Wii was the best selling Nintendo home console of all time.
I'm very doubtful it'll happen, but it's a Nintendo-owned IP, so there's always a chance.
Want: 25%
I have no connection to the series whatsoever. It's an alright choice I guess. The character moveset could be interesting, with being on a bike 24/7 and all.
CHANCE - 1%
Yeah, the odds are not in favor of a "retro" Nintendo pick. While these have been somewhat of a staple for base game, selling them as DLC is a different story. It's not that I don't believe they could sell one... hell, I think Excitebiker would actually be a pretty widely recognized character. The issue lies more in supplementing that character with the full gauntlet of DLC content: stage, music, a full spirit board... Excitebiker doesn't have a whole lot to work with, unless they wanted to lean into this character representing various NES titles / sports games or something. Which would be interesting, but I just don't think the initiative is there at the moment. Maybe if they revived NES Remix?
On a side note, I suppose I should acknowledge the possibility of a "bonus" character and whether or not Excitebiker could fulfill that role, seeing how their content would be so slim otherwise. And it's true that Sakurai had attempted to add Excitebiker as far back as Melee! But I still doubt it, I'm really just not seeing our signature retro pick this time around.
WANT - 70%
Which sucks! I don't want Excitebiker explicitly, but I think they would be fun. And I'm starved for some deeper cut Nintendo pick that just allows Sakurai to dig deep and have some fun like the retro characters always have. I'm certain Excitebiker would be treated with a lot of love and end up being extremely fun and creative. That being said... I just want Mach Rider that much more. They can do everything Excitebiker can and more, I think they're much better suited for Smash and could still represent Excitebike in addition to their own game. But hey, I'd be happy for either of them.
Yeah, the odds of getting a retro as DLC are pretty small. When the frontrunner is Ayumi, you know retro picks are slim pickings. I can not see Excitebiker being chosen over Ayumi right now given the fact that Ayumi just got remakes and is one of the few First Parties without a spirit event yet. Even the, Nintendo has shown a strong preference towards shilling what is new ish when it comes to DLC. Byleth, Pyra/Mythra, and Min Min all are from big Switch games. Heck, we could go back towards Sm4sh and use Corrin as precedent against this as well. The only DLC character that does not follow this rule in terms of first parties is plant, but given how it had a Palutena's Guidance it seems to have been in development far before the other DLC characters were and I would consider it moreso something from base game. Either way, precedent is against Excitebiker here.
Even if the bonus spot stuff comes to fruition, I would not chnage this score.
50% want
Yeah, I would not be opposed to the idea... But there is one problem.
Yeah, there is a different retro biker I would be a fan of. Mach Rider is one of those retro picks that I just think would be super cool. I was so pumped in the Grinch Leak for Mach Rider, I was so hopeful that she would be our retro. But alas, it did not come to be. While I would be happy with a bike moveset, I would prefer Mach Rider any day.
So yeah. I would just vastly prefer Mach Rider. If we got Excitebiker, it would be bitter sweet for me. I would like the moveset, but I would prefer Mach Rider. Here is hoping she is our Retro rep some day...
chances: 5% on the whole i dont fancy their odds. worms has struck me as one of those which is somewhere in the exact middle between everyone knowing them and obscurity. certainly i think a lot of the people i know are familiar with worms but at the same time it seems to be something we all forget about pretty quickly. and in my experience the internet is much the same. i just think there are many other things theyd go for.
want: 10% theres a tiny part of me that wouldnt mind it. ive played a little bit of one game and know that they would have a very bizarre moveset which is something i love to see. between the absurd weapons and the daft voices this would certainly be quite the fighter in the game. but there is defintatly so many other things id prefer. but it would be from the worst character who could get in smash.
Goddammit my draft got deleted. Ah well, a new writeup should kill some time for Zag.
Centipede
Chance: 1% Surprise surprise, this franchise is a ****ing bestseller, never did I ever expect to read that when researching, 70 million? The little lads are certainly noteworthy enough to join Smash but there's one major issue, the worms don't seem to have much fan demand which begs the question, would Nintendo even consider this without appropriate fan demand. As for firearms, Joker proved that's not an issue at all so the Worms wouldn't be held back there
Want: 40% Sure, why not? I may remember very little of what I played but it was an absolute blast, they don't have to deal with the typical issue of repetitive animations due to the sheer variety of moves at their disposals and the series has always had a comedic edge with the slapstick which helps make **** fun to watch, I'd also see a stage with destructable terrain as it's gimmick and I'm very curious as to how that'd work
Chance: 5%. While it’s very unlikely that we will see them in the Fighter’s Pass, but that does not mean they are 100% out of the running. They could work as a spirit and their chance might rise for the sequel.
Want: 50%. While I prefer Earthworm Jim as the playable Worm, the Worms would still be fun to play as, and I can see them face off against Falco in a match. Overall, the Worms would be a strange yet decent choice for a Smash Bros rep.
Worms
Chance: 9%
Ah, now this is a strange one... Worms is a long-running, best-selling franchise, has had tons of games on every console including Nintendo consoles, and has boatloads of charm. It's funny, it's silly, and there's even a Worms game on Switch so from a marketing perspective there's crossover there. However, there's no real fan demand (which is not necessary but doesn't hurt) and it also doesn't have the benefit of seeming like a franchise that Nintendo has put any weight behind, nor does Team17 who released Worms WMD seem like a company that Nintendo is especially close to. I just don't see where the conversation could have happened, but I'll give them some points just because Worms really is that big of a franchise and I would love to see a sleeper like them get in.
Want: 70%
Y'know, yeah! I've never really considered them likely for Smash or anything, but I've been a fan of Worms ever since playing Worms Armageddon for the N64. I have some really fond memories of throwing the Holy Hand Grenade for the first time and cracking up at the tiny snippet of Handel's Messiah that played just before it blew up. A little worm dude whose whole moveset is based around trajectories and physics and wacky heavy weaponry would be fun as heck, and Worms as a franchise is long-running, has sold gangbusters, and is still relevant as you can pick up Worms games on Steam and Switch still. Plus, consider the stage possibility: a fully destructible stage you can terraform with attacks! That would be crazy fun in casuals. So yeah, a Worm isn't at the top of my list or anything, but I wouldn't be disappointed at all.
So when researching this I was quite impressed. 70 million units sold all together? That is bonkers. To put that into perspective, that is around the same sales amount of Crash's series, probably more. But sales alone isn't what's going to get you into Smash, though Worms has other merits too. It has been around since 1995 and has stayed consistent in terms of releases and sales. It has been on almost everything including a bunch of Nintendo systems and has some games on Switch too. So Nintendo has a lot of reasons to go for this. The only things I can say against it is that there is not much fan demand and Nintendo hasn't shown a lot of interest in Worms or Team17. But I'll say that if those are the only roadblocks ahead of Worms, they are in a good spot.
Want: Abstain
Never played these games, although I am familiar with the artillery genre as I used to play Tanks on the computer a lot as a kid and Worms seems to be in the same valley with all sorts of weapons and abilities to use. Once again, thanks to RTC for introducing me to another series.
Worms
Since I nominated them a lot, I feel it'd be good to give my thoughts.
Chance: 5%
Originally I was planning to give them a lower score, but after deciding to read up a bit more on it, I found out it's doing pretty well. While I think it's more due to the sheer amount of ports, rereleases and whatnot, as Worms tends to stay on all consoles possible, 70 million units is a really good amount, and this was reported in 2015. That said, this alone isn't enough to get them in Smash, and as far as I know while Team17 often releases the games on Nintendo just like they do for other consoles I don't think they're particularly close to them. Still, that's not a requirement per se. Ultimately, for a franchise that might or might not have been in most people's eyes, or one that's not particularly close to Nintendo, I think they're in a pretty alright spot.
What I personally find interesting is that one of their most-liked releases, Armageddon, still gets updates these days. The last update was July last year. It's also gotten new games, meaning the series is as remaining as ever. It might be worth noting that there have been some exclusive Nintendo releases, like Worms: A Space Oddity for Wii, while that was back in 2008, it's still nice to look at. Having been around since 1995 helps as well.
Want: 90%
I think they'd make for a very fun fighter. While I'm not all that familiar with the newest releases, I loved playing Armageddon, 3D, and 4 Mayhem years ago. In the Worms games, more than movement what you have to focus on is the way you use your weapons. Since they're well, just Worms, movement is super limited. Despite their appeareance, Worms are loaded with weapons, bazookas, grenades, missiles, guns, mines, bows, axes, baseball bats... and of course, there's less conventional ones. Exploding sheeps, banana bombs, a falling donkey statue, and of their biggest trademark weapons, the Holy Hand Grenade, which I think shouldn't be missing out of their arsenal. They also have some close quarter moves, mimicking both the "Hadoken" and "Shoryuken".
Of course, the stage would have to be one that can be destroyed, just like it's common in the series. I can imagine it'd change to random ones, maybe based on some maps from Armageddon, but it'd be pretty fun for normal play.
Chance: 17%
Alright so here are the facts: Worms is a huge franchise. It's sold like gangbusters. It keeps getting game after game after game. It basically created its own genre like Bomberman. People recognize the worms, I think it's fair to call it iconic. And it has been, and will likely continue to be, on Nintendo consoles. Those are incredibly compelling points in the series' favor, many speculation darlings can't measure up to that.
But, there are a couple of strong disadvantages as well: one is being Western, and while Team 17 has become an indie powerhouse in the modern day, I'm not sure if that puts it in a position where they have an active relationship with Nintendo. The second is no demand, which, you know, hasn't really mattered much, but is worth considering. The third one, though, is pretty significant imo: despite its success, I don't think Worms ever took the world by storm, it was never a "big deal". Hell, 3 years of Ultimate speculation and this is the first time I've seen them considered. If they aren't on our radar, would they be on Nintendo's? ...Maybe! There's no denying that the majority of the DLC characters weren't either. I'm expecting Nintendo to blindside us once again and the Worms would certainly fit the profile. There's no ignoring 70 million copies sold. But it's also possible that they didn't even register much in the same way that we assume that, for example, Power Pro Baseball hasn't registered.
Want: 90%
They have the caliber to make it in. I think everyone at some point has played either Worms or a Worms clone. They're great. When I was a kid there are few games I played more than Worms 3D. Even though I sucked, I just loved making and naming squadrons of Worms after, like, Star Wars characters or whatever and making them fight. Plus Worms are hilarious in a way that would actually translate well to Smash. Let me lob a Holy Hand Grenade at Bayonetta and I'll be happy.
Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Zagreus prediction: 0.5% (This is my "faith in humanity" prediction where I'm assuming people won't actually give an impossible character possible scores)
Noms: Todd Mother****ing Snap x10
Zagreus prediction: 0.5% (This is my "faith in humanity" prediction where I'm assuming people won't actually give an impossible character possible scores)
Chance: 5% - I was originally gonna count them out for the most part, but after doing some research and reading everyone else's posts I was quite surprised! Granted, I wouldn't put my money on a Aorms rep but thank you for convincing me that Worms was more viable than it appeared! The game seems to have gotten near-consistent releases on Nintendo systems (seems like they try to be multiplatform whenever they can) and have even gotten a few Nintendo-exclusive releases! That already gives them a good boost! They're also no stranger to crossovers either (wasn't there a recent Worms game that had characters like Yooka Laylee in it?) so Smash is definitely within their spirits. Though they aren't very popular or seen as iconic, nor do they have much fan demand, which is odd given the franchise's VERY high sales numbers and the amount of clones of the franchise that exist. Honestly this is a very bizarre case! Japanese popularity is also an unknown (anyone have any sales figures for Worms in Japan?), and Nintendo hasn't actively promoted the Worms franchise, so while there's a relationship there it isn't particularly close. Still, those 70 million copies are nothing to write off, and even if they aren't likely, one should not count Worms out.
Want: 40% - I have no attachment to the Worms franchise myself, though looking through it I can see what they bring to the table! They're cartoony, which the current DLC scene has little of, so they'd balance things out and stand out! I'm glad that, like Agent 47, the Worms worms have some silly, cartoonish moves to mix in with their realistic weapons, and it makes for a humorous vibe that suits Smash perfectly. Plus they'd play extremely uniquely, a very slow character that keeps people away with crazy projectiles? Sounds like a good addition to me! It's be hilarious to see the exploding sheep and the donkey statue flying around a Smash stage, and I think the fanbase would quickly warm up to them! So while they wouldn't be my first choice, especially with only two slots left, I certainly wouldn't mind them, and I think that their hilarious toolkit and expressive designs would be a great fit for Smash!
Nominations:
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's alt/echo x5
Captain Charlie x5
Predictions:
Zagreus - 16.92% - Expecting people to either hype up this character (despite being basically impossible) or give him a low score, citing that a Mii costume would be more likely.
Beatrice (Umineko) x335
Concept: Disgaea rep x330
Rallen (Spectrobes) x310
Billy & Jimmy Lee x290
Mike Haggar x265
Concept: Skullgirls rep x264
Concept: Miles Edgeworth as Phoenix Wright's Alt/Echo x260
250 - 201
[Rerate] Concept: League of Legends rep x237
Tetra x225
Trevor Philips x225
Peppino (Pizza Tower) x217
Concept: A BioShock protagonist x211
[Rerate] Carmen Sandiego x210
Ryza (Atelier) x205
200 - 151
Estelle Bright x200
Concept: From Software rep x195
Grunty (Banjo-Kazooie) x195
Senator Armstrong x185
Bill Rizer x175
Kaede Akamatsu x170
Sackboy x155
Stage: Bowser's Castle x152
150 - 101
Boss: Rayquaza x145
Riptor x145
Mii Costume: Monika x135
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x128
Boss: Ender Dragon x123
Meat Boy x120
D.Va x115
Mii Costume: 2B x110
[Rerate] Louie x110
Fulgore x107
[Rerate] Officer Howard x105
Echo (Bowser) x105
Corvo Attano x105
100 - 51
Stage: Tetris x100
Giygas x90
Legends Trainer x90
Junpei (Zero Escape) x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x80
Gunvolt x80
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x75
Concept: Rocket League rep x75
Todd Snap x75
Echo (Olimar) x66
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x65
[Rerate] Crash Bandicoot x65
Ghirahim x60
[Rerate] Zhao Yun x60
Garchomp x60
Rean Schwarzer x60
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x55
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x55
Magolor x55
Jin Sakai x55
50 - 25
[Rerate] Tails x50
Demi-Fiend x45
[Rerate] Agumon x40
Mii Costume: Zagreus x40
Filia (Skullgirls) x31
Concept: Virtual idols like Hatsune Miku x30
Concept: Large and Normal Final Destination made into separate stages x25
Worms - AKA, the who? Wait, holy ****, I know them! I haven't thought about them in a very long time character.
Chance 20 - I actually kinda think we might have a sleeper pick here. Worms are a long running series with a history on Nintendo. Seems like the series was and is still pretty popular as well. The most recent release from the series was also on the switch, which makes it clear that the 2 parties have at least talked in the recent past. So yeah, I could see this. I do think we get one last major surprise character as well so I suppose it could be a Worm. The biggest issue I see right now is that it's a western rep. I think we have one more shot at one of those if even that. Will it be Worms? I don't think that it will be. I'm happy we did this day though because I hadn't even considered them until now.
Want 50 - I wouldn't hate it. Worms is pretty close to iconic if it isn't already there. They'd feel pretty unique with their movement style. Would likely have a fun moveset as well. You could go worse than the Worms for a Smash character.
Predictions:
Zagreus - 4.21(Should be a 0 as he's way too late but someone's going to be bound to not know that and give him a 20 or something)
While worms has gone on for quite a long time and is on the Switch, I still am not sold. For starters, if we do get another western rep, there is steep competition. Stuff like Master Chief, Dragonborn, Rayman, and especially Crash Bandicoot tower over the little guys in speculation. While worms is a surprisingly successful series, I still personally think those all trump it, either due to a big pop culture impact like with Chief, Dragonborn, or Crash, or through fan demand like Rayman or Crash. I personally doubt we will get three western reps in one pass, so I am not confident in these guys. It is a bit of a dark horse, and I did have to redo my write up here because, well, I thought this was going to be a lot lower. But congrats, the Worms surprised me. It could easily happen. I would say that this is a dark horse pick of sorts. But I am not sold.
Abstain Want
I have almost zero interest in the Worms games and have not played a single one. I can't rate this in good faith. I often abstain when it is a character that, well, I am not familiar enough with. If something clicks and I am sold on a character, I might jump the gun and through caution to the wind, like I did with Adol when I had only a small grasp on Ys when his music sold me. But here, I just do not see the appeal personally. Granted, it would certainly be interesting, which is something I can give it. But it just is not for me...yet. Maybe if I play one of the games I might change my tune one way or another.
Rean Schwarzer x 10
Zagreus 1.33% (This should be lower but...)
In other news, some fun extra stuff.
First off, RTC will have another community night on Saturday, the 18th. Time likely between 6-9 pm est. We will play something. Depending on the number of people, we might play some Among Us, TF2, Smash, Jackbox, Mario Kart, etc. Here is an invite to the RTC discord if you are interested. Showing up for Community Night would be a bonus 50 nominations.