Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[3DSNinja]

Abstain because I haven't played Katamari.
Nominations: Hajime Hinata x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Gonna abstain here

Xion echo - .32%

Noms
Stretchers x5

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain
Nom: Alex Mason x5

 

[Mr. MR]

The Prince
Chance: 7%
Konami, Capcom, SEGA, Microsoft, and Square Enix all have gotten a 2nd playable character (not counting echos) and we are expecting a third one from any of these companies in the near future. Namco who had Pac-Man in the base game in Smash 4 and helped developed Smash 4 and Ultimate, still has yet to get a second playable character or even an echo (where's Ms. Pac-Man?). Namco already has a lot of representation in Ultimate's base game with items (Boss Galaga and Special Flag) and an Assist Trophy (Pac-Man Ghosts). We also had a lot of Mii Costumes returning from Smash 4.

I want to take a tangent to look at the Mii Costume patterns:
Joker: SEGA (Persona and Sonic)
Hero: Square Enix (Dragon Quest)
Banjo: Konami (Goemon), Capcom (Mega Man), Pokémon, and Sans
Terry: SNK, SEGA (Virtua Fighter) -> Fighter Themed
Byleth: Ubisoft (AC and Rabbids), Capcom (Mega Man), and Cuphead
Min Min: ARMS, Namco (Heihachi), Splatoon, and Bethesda (Vault Boy)
Steve: Microsoft (Minecraft), Namco (Gil), Konami (Bomberman) and Travis

Out of the Third Parties here who have gotten Mii Costumes in different waves are:
Konami, Capcom, SEGA, and Namco.
Also, I want to point out the anomaly that Square Enix has a Smash 4 costume that did not re-release with Hero.

Konami, Namco, and Capcom are I believe comparable in this instance because they have not gotten a character in the fighter pass yet. I personally think having Mii Costumes not bundled together is not a point against them getting another fighter considering they are treated a little differently and probably negotiated a lot of this stuff with Nintendo before hand.

That being said, currently I think until Lloyd gets his Mii Costume, he and a Tekken character are the front runners (Edit: and possibly Dark Souls rep). I don't know much about Tekken but there are a lot of Tekken characters to choose from other than Heihachi, but his Mii Costume return does help the Prince as it's basically a soft deconfirm. Tekken to me just makes sense considering we have Ryu, Ken, and Terry. There's also Soul Calibur, another fighting game series that makes sense. Considering all that I think the Prince has a lot to overcome.

Now the positives for the Prince: His franchise's whimsical character seems like a great fit for Smash. His moveset is something I think Sakurai would be interested in and gravitate towards. He's iconic and very recognizable.

Final points against him: Honestly, I think the programing looks like a nightmare and I think Sakurai put up with Steve because Minecraft is HUGE. He would make a good candidate for a Mii Fighter Costume+ (imagine him throwing a katamari for a Side B). His competition is really steep.

Want: Abstain
I haven't played a Katamari game but having that catchy tune and a completely unique playstyle warms me up to him.

Noms: Impa x10
Predict: 2%

 

[Calamitas]

Sie erblickend mich rollend, sie hegen Groll
(Aka ye high olde German version of "They see me rollin', they hatin")

Chance: 5%
I must admit: Even after reading some of the more lengthy arguments in favour of the prince, I. . . am not convinced. To begin with, there is the on previous days already mentioned seeming hurdle of Bandai-Namco getting a second character in Smash to begin with. And as before, the fact that Heihachi and Gil's Mii costumes have already returned do already seem like a heavy strike for his chances to me. What similarly isn't helping is that there's still Bandai-Namco competition remaining, in the form of characters like a Tales Of protagonist, the Chosen Undead (or any Dark Souls character), or KOS-MOS, to name just a few. While I don't know the exact specifics of which series is more successful or acclaimed between any of those and Katamari, I still want to note that at least from what I've seen, Dark Souls and Tales Of are series that have. . . uh, how do I put this best into words. . . a higher recognition factor online? Like, I've seen generally more talk about those series than I have seen talk about Katamari, and I don't mean that in the context of Smash. And what I feel is also worth bringing up, that hopefully has a bit more merit is that there wasn't even a Katamari Mii costume in Smash 4, which seems like it could have been a logical thing to make if the series was being pushed by Bandai-Namco in the context of Smash.

Want: Abstain
Never played the series. No interest in giving a want score.

Predicting Xion to get around 0.31%

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10.

 

[amageish]

One, Two Princes Roll Before You (that's what I said, Now)

Chance: 10%. It's... plausible. Katamari has a distinct niche that it fills very well and very specifically. It is a bizarrely unique game franchise and definitely feels like the type of game that would be up Sakurai's ally in terms of weird moveset potential... It's sold pretty well given how niche it is by design and continues to get cameos in a lot of other Namco IPs. It definitely feels like it'd be a must in a Namco-only crossover fighter and is totally plausible for Smash!

Problem is just really... competition is everywhere for this franchise. Heihachi and Gil being Mii Costumed again could be seen as a boon, but also could be seen as a bad thing if you believe that shows Namco isn't a priority at all... Tales of is another big Namco IP with its costume still MIA. Soulcalibur had a period where it was pretty big in speculation, even if it's quieted down now. Heck, if Sakurai's feeling really creative, then Taiko no Tatsujin exists and is pretty huge in Japan, especially in arcades. So, lots of competition within Namco and also we've got only four slots left for, like, all of video games. Competition is really just a challenge here.

That said, I'm unsure if Bandai Namco actually owns Dark Souls as an IP or if it belongs to FromSoftware or if it's co-owned by them in a "Namco owns the name Dark Souls but FromSoftware owns the characters/content itself" sense? I've seen conflicting reports on that...

Want: Abstain. I know a lot of people who love this franchise though, so I think I'd be pretty happy.

Predictions: 0.5%. Man, this is going to be a weird day with the layers of concepts we're rating at once.
Nominations: Jill Stingray Costume x10

 

[Blankiturayman]

That said, I'm unsure if Bandai Namco actually owns Dark Souls as an IP or if it belongs to FromSoftware or if it's co-owned by them in a "Namco owns the name Dark Souls but FromSoftware owns the characters/content itself" sense? I've seen conflicting reports on that...

From my understanding, Bandai Namco owns the IP proper and publishes the games, while FromSoftware is the developer. So Bandai Namco would be the one checking if it can be allowed into crossovers and stuff.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Charming
Chance: 5%
Strangely enough my partner put on the Game Grumps playthrough of this one yesterday and thus it's fresh in my mind. I tend to forget about Katamari(somehow) but it was a pretty big deal when it came out and is absolutely madcap fun for the short time I played the Xbox 360 version at a friends.

The Prince's main obstacles are of course Namco's other franchises such as the massively successful Dark Souls, Soul Calibur, Tales and Tekken franchises(although Tekken might be out the running since the face of the series has returned as a Mii outfit) as well as nicher, but still very popular options like Digimon, the previously rated Klonoa who is still pretty popular with Smash fans and Taiko no Tatsujin's Don-chan.

Overall I can see the Prince making it more as a Mii outfit than a fighter as his look is very recognisable, and the gameplay of Katamari Damacy frankly doesn't translate brilliantly to a platform fighter, as you can't simply roll up your opponents into a ball.

Want: 55%
Once again, Agumon is king of the Namco pile for me, followed by Klonoa, but having reminded myself of how fun the game is I really want to purchase it for myself. It's the sort of silly nonsense games like Untitled Goose Game that make me grin from ear to ear, and in 2020, there really isn't enough silliness going around.

I'd put the Prince in a solid third for Namco in terms of personal want, as I don't really care for the casts of the more successful franchises such as Tales, and I only have a passing investment in the Soul Calibur squad. Mostly Cervantes. He's an undead pirate. That's awesome. Shame he'll never be picked even if we have 10 Soul Calibur Reps.

I really can't see The Prince working as a playable fighter outside his obvious Final Smash of rolling his enemies into a big old ball, but he does seem perfect for a Mii fighter, and I think that would be good enough for me. But if Sakurai can make such an absurd concept for a fighter work, I'll happily welcome it.

Prediction: Xion as a Sora echo: 0.001% and personally I think I might be overestimating it.

Nominations: Impa(Age of Calamity) X 10

 

[PeridotGX]

He used to roll the world

Chance - 2%. A lot of what I said for Klonoa applies here: the piecemeal Namco costumes don't reflect well on a Namco character, and they're kinda unimportant next to other Namco characters. The prince has it a little better, because his series isn't dead, but I ouldn't put money on it or anything.

Want: Abstain. I've never played a Katamari game. They do seam interesting, and they're certainly a lot more easy to obtain then the last Namco character's games were.

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate the idea of Xion from Kingdom Hearts appearing as an echo fighter of Sora.

Predict Monster Hunter from Jackbox Party Pack 4 the Monster Hunter series.

Megadoomer

-----

Here are some Xion songs for the day:

Spoiler: Kingdom Hearts Xion songs

Also here is the link to the official RTC Discord server. Join us for gaming nights, Smash speculation, and more!

 

[PeridotGX]

(insert hilarious, Kingdom Hearts themed joke here).

Chance - 0%. I already heavily doubt that we're getting Sora. Not only was he disconfirmed, but dealing with Disney seems like a massive hassle. I also don't think we're getting any additional echoes, I humored the idea early in pass 1 but it's apppearent it's not happening. Lastly, why would they go for Xion instead of a more important character, like Roxas or the guy that says "ok, I belive you!"? There are three different 0%s that are involved in this.

Want: Abstain. I've never played a Kingdom Hearts game.

Noms: Maxwell x5

 

[Perkilator]

No. 1(4)

Chance: 0%
More so from logical standpoint. No other DLC fighter has gotten an Echo, which is a shame because I would've loved to see Ninjara as Min Min's Echo so of course ssomething like this won't happen.

Want: 100%
Which is a shame, because Xion, to me, makes the most sense as a Sora Echo. That, and I simply love her as a character.

Monster Hunter: 25%

Noms:
Sakura Shinguji x5

 

[amageish]

Xion

Chance: Okay, let's math this one out, shall we? We're basically rating four things at once here... So, we get sub-ratings within this rating.

Spoiler: Sora Rating

Sora
Chance: 15%. I apparently have never rated Sora myself before! Shocking, I know. Sora's iconic and from a huge franchise. Definitely a good choice to have on marketing materials and try to break the internet with the reveal of. If they can pull off the negotiations with Disney it entails, then it'd be a solid choice... if they feel like paying for it, that is.

I honestly don't know how to feel after they pulled off Steve. Maybe that's a really good sign for Sora as they're going after big-names and somehow including them without them being leaked half a year in advance this time. Maybe that's a bad sign as they just spent all their big character budget on Steve. I have no idea!

Sora just really strikes me as a "Oh, yeah, if they choose him he's in" character. He just kind of needs Nintendo to want to do the work he entails to get him in. I'm giving a 15% chance just because of competition, really...

Spoiler: Echo Fighters as DLC

Concept: Echo Fighters as DLC
Chance: 3%. I just don't know why we wouldn't know by now if they were doing this. A lot of the speculation about echo fighters came from the weird way ARMS was revealed and nothing came of that. Unless they planned echo fighters and delayed them, but only them, due to the pandemic, then I'm unsure why they'd have planned to suddenly sell a new type of DLC 3/6ths through the fighter's pass? It just feels odd from a business planning PoV...

Spoiler: Sora getting an echo fighter

Concept: Sora gets an echo fighter
Chance: 1%. Annnnnnd I'm unsure about echo fighters for DLC characters - especially new DLC characters - at all. Would you buy them separately? If so, then isn't that just selling a cheaper way to access the new character? Obviously you wouldn't get the associated content, but it still feels like it could potentially be cannibalizing your own sales by letting people access the DLC character's moveset without paying for the whole DLC itself... I'm unsure if that'd be a worthwhile investment of dev time and licensing fees?

Spoiler: Xion herself

Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter
Chance: 30%. If it's happening though, then I'm giving Xion a 30% chance. She's beloved and would share his moveset well. I still give Roxas a 50%, then wild card of Ventus gets a 10%... I think. I may be missing more characters who have Sora-esque movesets, honestly, so 10% for all the other keyblade people that could be rounded to the nearest echo...

And the odds of all of those happening at once? If I'm correct, then I think that'd be 0.0018%! Huzzah!

Want: 100%. So, uh, 358/2 Days is the only KH game I have actually finished myself (though Melody of Memories will probably change this as I'm rhythm game trash)... So, yeah, I'll take Xion. Actually, personally, we could just skip Sora. I'll take Xion instead...

Noms: Jill Stingray Costume x10
Predictions: 63%

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Crossion
Chance: 0%
Should we really be rating echoes of characters that aren't even in yet? Especially this late into the DLC cycle? It's very doubtfull it could still happen at this point. At most, we'll see more alts like what we got with Steve. Xion would have to come alongside Sora in a pack, which they may want to avoid as to not add relatively more value to that pack compared to the others. Speaking of which, I really don't see Sora getting in personally. They'd be lucky to recruit just him alone from Disney, now we're asking them to bring an echoe with them too? Why Xion anyway? Aren't characters like Riku and Roxas more recognizable and closer to Sora in relation and importance? I've never played KH so that's just an assumption I'm maikng.

Want: Abstaining

Monster Hunter: 32.77%
The Knight x5

 

[fogbadge]

xion echo hmm

chances: 0% forgoing the whether or not we even get sora or even if we get echoes for potential dlc i just dont think they would go for xion. roxas really is the natural echo for sora in terms of gameplay and lore. sure roxas has his dual wielding but so did sora and lets faces it plenty of echoes have things that could separate them but didnt. really theres nothing that puts her ahead of roxas as an echo. though i would say shes ahead of anti sora in this particular pecking order. also roxas is more popular as well

want: well im gonna go with 70%. im not against the idea but id rather have roxas as the echo. in fact the are several KH characters id prefer, sora, riku, kairi, roxas, lea, aqua then xion. shes not a bad character nor would she be boring to play as i just love so many of them. in short not happening but would be fun.

do let me know if ive earned the 10 noms, nominate chibi-robo x5 qbby x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Salt

Chance: 0%
This hinges on several things. First off, if we're getting Sora. There's a good chance, for sure, but it's nowhere near a guarantee, but I won't get into the probability of Sora being in since that's a whole other day. But will we get Echoes? Well, I think there's a chance. They could do Echoes as quick bonuses just like they did Small Battlefield. And there's those 4 unused slots. But we've also been told that FPV2 is the last of the DLC, Sakurai's looking more tired than ever, and the pandemic makes any cool bonus much harder to develop than it should be. Echoes for DLC characters, though, would have to be sold with the character, or only to people who own the character, otherwise people would just buy the Echo to save money (I'm presuming Echoes would be cheaper than unique fighters). So it could be done, even if I really doubt it. But why Xion? I get the canonical reason to make her an Echo of Sora, but she's just an odd pick for Kingdom Hearts' second fighter. Roxas might not work as an Echo, but Xion over Riku or even Ventus? I don't see it.

Want: 0%
Look, Xion is a great character. In fact, she might be one of the best characters in Kingdom Hearts. But I... don't really need her as a fighter in Smash? There's just other characters from KH that take priority imo. Xion would be kinda random.

Noms: Jason and SOPHIA x10
Monster Hunter prediction: oh boy, this'll be big. 52.84%

Also,

Not only was he disconfirmed

No he wasn't.

do let me know if ive earned the 10 noms

You have.

 

[Lyncario]

Xion, as an echo of Sora

Chances: 0%

That's just being real here. Even if we assume that Sora is in at 100%, the precedent for every dlc character before was that they had no echo, with especialy Hero and Steve going against that as they have alts instead of echoes, you can even include Byleth in that if you wan to but it's still the same character at the end of the day (I'm talking about Byleth, the male and female versions are the "same" in essence). So yeah, there's no reason to expect Xion to be an echo of Sora is Sora does get in. And that is if Sora does get in, and while I do not believe in his recent disconfirmation at all, especialy with how the guy who posted it on ResetEra has a track record of aparently nothing (if you want to learn more about it if you somehow did not hear about it, just read some of the latest pages of the Sora thread), I do not think that he's one of the lilkeliest character that could get in. So yeah, I see no chances of this hapening. However...

A shine of hope! An Hero situation, but for Sora?

Chances
Individualy: 0.1%
As a whole: 0.02%

This is the possibility of Xion coming as an alt for Sora instead of an echo, which would ailgn more with something that already happened in Ultimate's dlc cycle, with like I already said, Hero and Steve. I finsd this extremly unlikely, because of how Sora isn't a blank state like Hero, Steve, or even Byleth, however I still think that there's a very slim chance of it hapening. The alts in this situation would be:

• Sora, obviously
• Roxas, also obviously
• Xion, as she is the point of this
• And either Ventus or Kairi, though most likely Kairi in this situation in my opinion

Roxas and Xion being in are kinda obvious as they both come Sora in KH canon, and te last one is a bit trickier because Ventus feels obvious, but he wouldn't bring notable design variety compared to Roxas, and he also has a style really different from Sora's, while Kairi's style of fighting is still not the same as Sora's, it's still closer, and would also give another female model that would be close to Xion's model, making it more coherent as a whole. And also Melody of Memories is focused mostly around Kairi, so that also kinda goes in her way too. Though I do think that this is extremly unlikely to happen, as the first character to go trough this would be Roxas, and while he does fight like Sora when he uses only 1 keyblade, well, he dual weilds, which is his entire thing, and if they implement that into the moveset then it would be only Sora and Roxas, without Xion or someone else into it. So yeah, an extremly unlikely as hell scenario to happen, though I do think that there kind of a albeit extremly chance of it hapening. And that concludes what is probably the biggest chance section I will ever make for this thread.

Want: 98%

I would absolutely love to have Xion playable as either an echo or an alt in Smash alongside Sora, as she is my third favorite KH character behind Sora and Roxas (while we're at it, I would like to say that yes, fighting Saïx with my 3 favorite character of the series in my team was one of the best feeling ever in KH3, especaily in Re:Mind where I could control Roxas for it). I mean, she also has one of my favorie theme of the entire series in Re:Mind alongside one of my favorite boss fight, so why wouldn't I love this, even if I find it unlikely as hell.

Nominations
Hades x10

Predictions
Monster Hunter: 40.7%

 

[DanganZilla5]

Xion as echo

Abstain. I still need to beat Kingdom Hearts 1 so I haven't encountered this character and I don't want to research her in case I possibly run into any spoilers. But as a note, I don't think we are getting anymore echoes at this point.

Prediction: Monster Hunter - 47%

Noms: Arthur x5

 

[Sari]

Echo: Xion (Sora)

Chance: 0%
So for this to happen we have to get Sora in Smash, he has to come with an echo fighter, AND that echo has to be Xion. Sora is far from a lock so we might not even get anything Kingdom Hearts related in Smash at all. I don’t see bonus echos releasing alongside Fighter Pass characters since it’d require a lot of unnecessary work. Also my knowledge of the KH series isn’t the greatest, but I do know that if Sora is getting cloned then either Roxas or Ventus would probably have priority (especially since Roxas is the main character of Xion's debut game). There is also the possibility of Xion most likely having slightly different animations/poses from Sora (Xion wears a cloak while Sora wears shorts which could complicate things) meaning they can’t be echos as that was the reason Isabelle wasn’t an echo of Villager.

Want: Abstain
Never got into KH so I won’t comment.

Monster Hunter chance prediction: 40.00% (a lot has come up since the last time we rated this)

Nominations:
BotW Zelda x5

 

[CheeseAnton]

Ok, but how do I turn Xioff?

Chance: -1%
I feel it's so unlikely it turns into a negative, that's how much I don't see it happening. I do want Sora in smash, but I don't think it'd happen because of Disney. Firstly, the Kingdom Hearts license is a can of worms, but if we just wanted Sora, we'd need Square Enix and Disney. But Disney isn't a company known for crossovers, only having Kingdom Hearts and Disney Infinity (still sad they ended it before they made Dr. Heinz, Ferb, and Candace figures), yet both of those were with itself and its own IPs. Disney seems to be extremely tight of their properties, and I think Kingdom Hearts as a series is a miracle of itself. Xion being an echo of a fighter that'll never happen turns the Sora 0, to a Xion -1. Also, Roxas would probably become the echo first, so for Xion to even be considered, she'd need

1. Disney to be willing to add Sora
2. Sora to get an echo fighter (Roxas)
3. Sora getting 2 echo fighters (for maybe Xion)

I just don't see it all.

Want: Abstain

MH predictions: 62.3%

Nomination-inator:
Dwight Fairfield x5

 

[fogbadge]

You have.

excellent, ill adjust my post accordingly

Disney to be willing to add Sora

why wouldnt they be?

 

[CheeseAnton]

why wouldnt they be?

eh, Idk. I just have a gut feeling they won't. I don't have any reasons, but I'm willing to bet money, if that makes sense which it probably doesn't as I seriously need to work on my communication skills and learn how to explain things better.

 

[Jomosensual]

Xion

Chance 0 - So for this to happen we need 3 different things here. First, Sora has to get into Smash. 2nd, we have to get an echo figher included in the pass. nd 3rd and finally, Xion has to be that echo figher. So lets break those down. If Sora is coming to Smash it'll likely be a VGA or E3 reveal. Which there, ok, that could happen since we have a VGA and E3 before the pass ends. There's a lot of people in the know saying he's not happening and even though Im leaning towards believing them that in no means decides anything either way. 2nd, there has to be an echo fighter in the pass. Now, I also don't think that's going to happen given we've had 7 reveals so far and 0 echos. Could still happen, Sakurai doesn't really follow any rules set other than no 4th party characters so who knows. I'll ignore point 3 because I don't know Kingdom Hearts well enough. But overall neither of those first 2 points feel likely enough for me to want to worry about it.

Want 100 - Huh? This is weird since I just said I don't know KH right? Well actually I just think Sora would be an insane addition and if that includes some character I don't know or care about on top of that then sure, why not. I don't know a thing about Xion but I know for a fact that I wont care either way about him if I see Sora revealed. So yeah, bring him on I suppose. Can't have an echo fighter without the original

Predictions:
Monster Hunter - 55%(People are going to go way too high on this)

Noms:
Non Steve/Chief rep x5
Stretchers x5

 

[fogbadge]

eh, Idk. I just have a gut feeling they won't. I don't have any reasons, but I'm willing to bet money, if that makes sense which it probably doesn't as I seriously need to work on my communication skills and learn how to explain things better.

well soras made some cameos before and Disney have let their characters appear in other things

 

[CheeseAnton]

well soras made some cameos before and Disney have let their characters appear in other things

I looked and I can't find examples of either of those, so I really didn't know. Can you please give me examples of those things?

 

[Calamitas]

An Echo to have ice cream with

Chance: 0%
Simply put, this hinges on far too many things in order for it to realistically happen. First off, Sora needs to be a DLC fighter, which, for a start, is fair enough. There are some legitimate points against Sora, but he still has a good enough shot. But the next point is already a tougher sell: DLC Echo Fighters happening in the first place. We're currently eight fighters into Ultimate's DLC (counting Plant), and not a single one was an echo, which already makes stacks the odds against Xion in a significant way. Next up, there's the question of whether or not DLC echo fighters would even come with the character that they're an echo of, and not just be simple additions we get once the Pass wraps up. And the final nail in the coffin: Even if Sora makes it in, even if DLC echo fighters are a thing, and even if Sora were to get an echo fighter - who's to say that it would even be Xion? My knowledge on the KH series is all pretty much second-hand, but I seem to remember that a lot of characters in the series are Sora to varying degrees, meaning that there is a good deal of potential for echo fighters that aren't her.

Want: Abstain
I have some understanding of the KH series, but I never played it for myself. Therefore, abstain.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10.

Predicting Monster Hunter to get around 47.86%.

 

[fogbadge]

I looked and I can't find examples of either of those, so I really didn't know. Can you please give me examples of those things?

sora has appeared in world of final Fantasy, final fantasy record keeper and brave exsis and wreck it Ralph appeared in SEGA all stars racing transformed and then there’s Disney art academy

 

[BowserKing]

Xion as Sora’s Echo Fighter

Chance: 1%. The main obvious character that should boost Xion’s Chance is Sora himself, and even then it’s a stretch, given who owns both of them. Another thing is, we have not seen any echoes get in as DLC, so that brings the chance at it’s strength lower. The 1% percent is because of a extremely rare chance, since multiple characters deemed impossible managed to get in.

Want: 50%. Sora would have to be in first, but Xion would be just as fun to play as as Sora would. Overall, I would be surprised that Xion would get in, and I think she would be a decent Echo fighter.

Prediction: Monster Hunter: 50%

Noms: 5 For Boss: Rayquaza

 

[3DSNinja]

I wont care either way about him

Xion is a girl, Jomo.

 

[Jomosensual]

Xion is a girl, Jomo.

Ah, my b. Kinda helps my point on my want score though at least lol

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't know how to rate this. It makes a BUNCH of assumptions, and it's hard to pinpoint anything specific.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Prince of All Cosmos pre-Echo: Xion

Billy Hatcher x235
Sakura Shinguji x215
Zelda (BotW universe) x210
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x210
The Stretchers x205
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x200
Amiya (Arknights) x190

200 - 151

Alex Mason x185
Hades (Kid Icarus) x180
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x171

150 - 101

[Rerate] Frisk x150
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x150
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x150
Concept: A Bravely Default character x150
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x149
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x130
Red (Angry Birds) x125
D.Va x115
[Rerate] Maxwell x105
Impa (Age of Calamity) x105

100 - 51

Zero (Mega Man) x95
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x94
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Stage: Bowser's Castle x81
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Echo: Coco (Crash) x80
Adol Christin x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x70
Giygas x65
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x60
Hajime Hinata x60
Miriam x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Boss: Rayquaza x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Don-chan x35
[Rerate] The Knight x35
[Rerate] Concept: New Zelda character x30

Under 25

Ryza (Atelier) x20
Tetra x15
Yarn Yoshi x15
Tetris x10
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Stage: Tetris x5
[Rerate] Agumon x5
[Rerate] Arle Nadja x5

Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA blast past 200 noms, right under The Stretchers and Content from currently unreleased game, and surface alongside Zelda in third place. The Stretchers also stretch past 200 noms and take fifth place.

Maxwell and Impa teleport past 100 noms.

Spoiler: Calcs

Steve satisfaction
Two words I hoped I'd never have to type
69.35%
This was the day with the most participation, tied with Min Min's satisfaction day.

Klonoa
3.28% Chance - 53.31% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob with the lowest prediction, a precise 4.00%.

Moogle
0.54% Chance - 37.47% Want
Winner of predictions was amageish by virtue of being the lowest prediction, with 0.50%. Your character may have done poorly, but at least you get 10 extra noms out of it!
And in case you were wondering, Moogle barely missed out on the bottom 5 third-party characters.

Prince of All Cosmos
9.77% Chance - 60.56% Want
First time we rated him he got 6.44% chance and 45.28% want. Last time we rated him he got 10.17% chance and 44.54% want. Strangely, between the first and second ratings not much happened for him, I guess except for a tendency in speculation to consider other Bandai Namco franchises aside from the titans of Tekken and Tails. Yet despite seeing Heihachi and Gil disconfirmed since then, and many thinking Lloyd's next, his chance score barely changed. Want, though, really went up. Could be that people are more open to options with Heihachi out, or that his fans have done a successful job winning people over.
Winner of predictions was GoodGrief741 with 9.82%

Extra noms list

3BitSaurus 5
amageish 20
Artix 15
Awakining 5
Blankiturayman 10
DanganZilla5 5
DaUsername 97
Delzethin 5
GoodGrief741 55
Icedragonadam 5
KingofPhantoms 5
NintenRob 55
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 20
PeridotGX 10
Perkilator 5
Ridrool64 15
SKX31 5
Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi 40
WeirdChillFever 10
Wunderwaft 5

 

[Ridrool64]

When a 1% is easily the highest score you got...

Chance: Yeah, 0%. Even if we DO get Sora AND we DO get DLC echoes AND they also happen to be available for characters from Challenger Packs, there's still no way that Xion is getting in over Roxas. But those first three alone are all miracles in their own right, let alone all three happening at once. It'd be pretty ****ing ridiculous if that miraculously happened.

Want: 5%. Well I guess it wouldn't be too hard. But, why does Sora deserve an Echo more than anybody else who doesn't have one? And why Xion over Roxas, in that case? It makes no sense, but... I don't actually care. I'm just too confused to see this as a good choice. The fact that it confirms Sora by proxy doesn't really pay into my rating. I'm rating Xion on her own merits, rather than as part of Sora's package (especially if she's sold separately). Strange to some, but this is how I see it.

Rerate Arle x whatever is left, Carl Johnson (Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas) x 15. Gonna ditch Frisk for the foreseeable future and Red, since I think they hit the same note that Steve already has. If for some reason Carl is considered disqualified, pour all of my nominations to rerating Arle. A popular trend is believing all the Capcom costumes will return, and if this is the case, I think the Hunter will hit 38.93% with a few dissenters waning the score down.

 

[NintenRob]

Double 0.
Normally I'd abstain, or ignore it altogether, but I have problems with this score fire a simple reason. I don't think we're getting an echo fighter alongside a DLC character. And I've heard enough about Sora to know that his echo would likely be roxas (who's riku, I feel I've heard that name)I want to say. Either way I don't think Sora is likely due to the nature of his franchise.

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5 (please don't let this get knocked out of top 7, I want to move on from this concept)

 

[Lionfranky]

Xion
Chance: 0%
Yeah... I don't see it. There are other characters like Riku who would be pretty much alt. Especially DLC which requires more attention and resource, I find it hard to believe that they would go for echo. Sora alone would be tricky to implement since he stands on thin line between Sakurai's only true rule. I don't think he can afford to consider echo.

Want: 0%
If I have to choose character to accompany Sora, I want Riku or Kairi. Even then, I want either of them to be alt at most. Sorry, but I haven't played Kingdom Hearts that feature Xion, so I don't have much attachment to her. Even then, Lara Croft is my most wanted from Square Enix. It's sad that competition is fierce, but I just can't stand back on this.

Nom: Neptune x 10

 

[GoodGrief741]

(who's riku, I feel I've heard that name)

Riku's the deuteragonist of Kingdom Hearts, basically Sora's best friend/rival.

 

[Inue Houji]

Xion as Sora echo
Abstain from both. I've neither played Kingdom hearts nor do I know anything about it.

Prediction MH: 57%

Nominations
Adol Christin x5

 

[BlueEyedGrimmbat]

Xion as Sora's Echo
Chance: 0.1%
I've lately had a bad habit of overrating things in my predictions.
The first and most obvious prerequisite for this is that Sora himself gets into Smash first, which I give a good 25% in my books. Much more unlikely, however, is the possibility of a DLC character getting an Echo.
And even if Sora does get one, I'm betting it'll be Riku, not Xion.

Want: 0%
One, my experience of Kingdom Hearts is limited to a few gameplay videos of KH3. I don't even know who Xion is.

Second, I feel that if Sora got an Echo it'd be really unfair to Persona and Dragon Quest, who didn't get Echos but are either just as popular or have as much legacy as Kingdom Hearts do. I do feel that Kingdom Hearts deserves to get a playable character in Smash, but not an Echo.

Third, if somehow the nightmare scenario of Sora having an Echo does happen, I'd much rather have Riku.

Predictions: Monster Hunter: 37,2%
Oh, I'd be down for that.

Noms: Amiya x10

 

[Cutie Gwen]

Who will I have ice cream with?

Chance: 0% Xion would require 2 miracles. 1. Sora getting added. This step alone is hard enough, Disney's shown they're VERY stingy with Sora, my favourite example being World of Final Fantasy having Sora available as DLC but he was completely mute and was only available for a limited time. We already have 2 reliable sources say Nintendo has failed to get their hands on Sora due to Disney. 2: We'd need echoes. Echoes only exist because they're so easy to make they take little to no time as like 80% of the work is slapping on a different model. They only did this because they had enough extra resources to quickly add them in the base game. For DLC? DLC has a smaller team and budget alongside a shorter schedule, there's no way we're getting an Echo in the second pass and there's no way we'd get some quick Echoes, especially one that would mean going back to Disney and needing to cough up more money.

Want: 0% I'm not a fan of Kingdom Hearts and most likely never will be. I'm aware Xion's a popular character and has lore reasoning for this but I just cannot force myself to care for a franchise I have no connection to no matter what. I also don't like the idea of more echoes as it's cheap padding which also forces this to lower down even more. If we got more characters from already represented games, I'd much rather have someone new regardless if who it is. For example, I beat CastleVania Dawn of Sorrow yesterday and I feel the Chronicles of Sorrow kinda got robbed, but if we got Julius as an echo, I'd think "Man we could have gotten Soma, Yoko or Alucard instead" despite how I like Julius. This character just has a very unfortunate combination of these aspects to me

Miriam x10

 

[fogbadge]

Second, I feel that if Sora got an Echo it'd be really unfair to Persona and Dragon Quest, who didn't get Echos but are either just as popular or have as much legacy as Kingdom Hearts do. I do feel that Kingdom Hearts deserves to get a playable character in Smash, but not an Echo.

unfair to DQ maybe but i think KH has done far better than persona

if anything itd be unfair to sonic and megaman