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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

Mr. MR

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Sep 5, 2011
Messages
115
Abstain
I don't think SMT will get a playable character but I don't have enough time to write anything.
I'm super swamped this week...

YES! Lu Bu is locked in... now who do I nom...
Noms: Impa (HW: Age of Calamity) x5
She looks really fun if she was put into Smash

Back to back Lu Bu and Monster Hunter is going to be fun for me.

Predict: 7.77%
 
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Cutie Gwen

Lovely warrior
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Somewhere out there on this big blue marble
DRINK UP THE WINE OF THE WRATH OF GOD

Chance: 40%. A high ass rating from someone who considers a 10% chance to be very likely, but I feel SMT has a significantly better position than almost every other character. Ij my eyes, it's going to be either Demifiend or the twink from V, Demifiend also benefits from a similar situation to Corrin, as Nocturne HD will be out in a few weeks in Japan while ww have to wait, meaning Sakurai has a character that's from a beloved cult classic, potentially has a game that came out recently at the time of release and an upcoming game on release. People often point at Joker but I really doubt he means much. There's zero SMT content, all the songs and spirits are explicitly Persona and Joker's design philosophy in Smash is being the flashy ass phantom thief people adored, while I think a Press Turn or summon gimmick could be too tricky to implement, Demifiend's typically depicted as a rather brutal fighter and we don't know what V's able to bring to the table, I highly doubt it's the same as Joker.

Want: 100% I only recently got in the franchise due to not realizing SMT4 was released in Europe but as a download exclusive but I adored my time with the claustrophobic atmosphere, the morality system giving no right or wrong answer, the best battle system I've seen in a JRPG that pushes players to improve and the amazing layers of depth the worldbuilding is given by randomizing a demon's personality meaning you have to get into roleplaying when recruiting them. There's no way in hell SMT won't get content in Smash but a fighter would be a sweet fortune.

Miriam x10
 

BlueEyedGrimmbat

Smash Apprentice
Joined
Oct 9, 2019
Messages
116
A Persona is- wait, we're rating SMT? OK hang on... (Concept: SMT rep)

Chance:
4%
With Joker already on the roster, I don't really see it. It's possible that we'll get Demi-fiend or the main protagonist of the upcoming SMTV, but otherwise I think Atlus is content with Persona 5 in Smash.

Want: 40%
Alright, sure, I'm fine with that. Shin Megami Tensei seems like an interesting series - and let's not forget that Persona would not have existed if not for SMT. What little I've seen of Shin Megami Tensei 3: Nocturne was pretty cool. Let's see a Persona-user duke it out with a master of demons...

Noms: Amiya x5
I'll probably nominate the Among Us Impostor after Amiya's locked in...
 

PSIGuy

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 27, 2014
Messages
1,967
Location
Australia
Chance: 55%
Shin Megami Tensei and Switch have been in mentioned in the same sentence for years even if in uncertain or sceptical tones, ever since SMT was confirmed to get a new mainline title back at the Switch reveal event. 3 years later, we're not only getting Shin Megami Tensei V news at last but a port of Nocturne to tide us over (to be released next month in Japan, even). Like No More Heroes which also featured at the Switch reveal, I feel Nintendo realizes the potential value of the series and the impact that including it in Smash would have.

Want: 100%
HEE ****ing HO LET'S ****ing GO. I'll take a Hero style Sword + Shoot + Summon moveset with the SMT1, 2, 4, if... and SJ protagonists. I'll take a Demi-fiend brawler/summon fighter. I'll take series-wide representation for music and spirits. I'll take a Jack Frost tag team with O'Lantern and 'The Ripper along for the ride. Give it all to me.
 
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Lyncario

Smash Ace
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Dec 3, 2019
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926
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Hell
The true reincarnation of the godess
Chance: 20%
Shin Megami Tensei is a series refined by some things. One of them is that it's one of the oldest and most influencial jrpg series out there, starting not too long after Dragon Quest and months before Final Fantasy, standing alongside both as one of the 3 pillard of jrpgs. Furthermore, it is the first jrpg in the monster collector sub-genre, way before Pokemon existed. Without SMT, there's no Pokemon, plain and simple (before people argue with how Pokemon is inspired by bug catching, Red and Green went trough hellish development, and without the assurance that a game of the monster collector genre would work thanks to SMT, it would have probably got scrapped). So yeah, the importance of SMT, or the MegaTen series, cannot be undetermined, especialy for Nintendo. In fact, SMTV was one of the first Swotch games Nintendo revealed for the Switch, to carter to more hardcore audiences, and If I remember correctly, it was the second 3rd part game revealed.for the Switch, after Dragon Quest XIS. Granted, Skyrim was also one of the first 3rd party games shown for the Switch, but I'd say that DQ and SMT are much more similar to each others than compared to the Elder Scrolls series. Furthermore, as seen in the first partner showcase, Nintendo put 2 games from the series as the big highlights from the partner showcase, the only other series who got that much of an highlight in a partner showcase was Monster Hunter, who is much more popular than SMT. So yeah, Nintendo trust SMT as a big name. All of this pretty much says that you cannot undermine how SMT is at worst a possibility. For the arguments against it, there's how P5 alreay has content, but none of it is SMT, there's not even a Jack Frost hat for Miis. Another that I thankfully don't see getting brought up a lot of at all is the origin of the series being the novel series Digital Devil Story, but it's like with Castlevania, yes the inspiration is from a novel, but the series is very different from the origin, or at least far more than series like The Witcher. And I don't think that I need to explain that all the gods, angels, and demons from different culture also falls under that, and so does a big part of the Kid Icarus cast, but just putting that here in case someone actualy think that makes SMT 4th party for some reason. However, there is one thing that I could see really going against SMT getting a playable rep. SMTV and DQ11S were 2 of the first games anounced for Switch, and so it could be though that Nintendo wanted for both to get a playable character as they see both as big names, but since SMTV took a while to get a second trailer, it could be that the Atlus character case went to Joker instead. However, I don't see that as too much of a step back, especialy since there's 6 characters in the second fighter pass, and Demi-Fiend is also back on the front now thanks to Nocturne getting an HD remaster, meaning that there would be no problems like the character getting in Smash before their own games, or the character being decided to be in Smash "too soon". And now, of the possible candidates for being this SMT rep, well, there's the protagonist of SMTV, Demi-Fiend, Jack Frost, but also Flynn, Nanashi, Space Marine, and even Raidou, Anel, Serph, and many more if you count spin-offs of MegaTen. Really there's just such a wide aray of choices for an SMT rep. Overall, I see an SMT rep in the second fighter pass as a good possibility, even if nowhere near a guarantee, though my score may be veryinnacurate to what I wrote, considering how I love Shin Megami Tensei and tried to be as unbiased for the chance score as much as possible, which I don't know if I suceeded at. Also fun fact, Shin Megami Tensei means "True Reincarnation of the godess", which is just badass.
Want: 100%
Yes, yes, yes, all of my yes. Shin Megami Tensei is one of my favorite series in all of fiction, and Nocturne is my favorite game of all time. Mainline SMT getting in Smash would just be so amazing to me. I mean, after all, Demi-Fiend is my second most wanted behind only Reimu, so of course my want score for this concept that I nominated many time would be on the very high spectrum of my want, but even without Demi-Fiend there's so many amazing choices between Flynn, Raidou, Space Marine, Serph, Abel, and many more, even Jack Frost, even if I don't like the idea of big jrpg series being represented by their mascot, would be very cool to have. The moveset for any of them would be incredibly fun, and also very contrasting to Joker's flashiness as SMT characters would have more roughter moves, signifying how their lives and fights are pretty much hell. The music would also be amazing, as it is in the series. And a stage based either on one of the post-apocalyptic landscapes of the series or one of the final dungeon would also be so cool to have. The series would just have amazing content in Smash, mainly due to how amazing everything in SMT is. Seriously, SMT has an amazing battle system, amazing writing, amazing character design, an incredible choice system based on your own morality and the concept of there being no wrong choices, and the main conflict being between YHWH ans Lucifer on a war where no one is correct and only few chosen survivors and messiahs can persist, with their ideology being able to corupt them far beyond the point of return at any time, making do that at any time you could find yourself to be alone in a desolated word with no one but demons who pledged moyalty to you, it's just so good, and I fully recommand to try it if you're interested in it. It really is one of the greatest video game series out there.

Predictions:
Klonoa: 9.2%

Nominations:
Hades x10
 
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Sari

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Abstaining completely today both because I'm busy and I have yet to get into the SMT series. After doing the music post though I'd be down for this happening if it means we get a lot of SMT IV music.

Klonoa chance prediction: 10.00%

Nominations:
BotW Zelda x5
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
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Messages
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Abstain. I'm not to sure of SMT's chances, at the moment. It really depends on how far they want to promote SMTV, I guess.

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x5
 

TCT~Phantom

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SMT Rep

15% Chance

I may not be as optimistic as Cutie Gwen Cutie Gwen , but I can see something from SMT V being a promotional choice in mind for Nintendo. Nintendo has shown that they are not shy of using Smash DLC for promotional reasons. Corrin and Byleth are the most obvious examples, but you could make an argument for Hero in the West and with DQXI coming out. Nintendo wanting to solidify SMT as "their thing" is something that I could see them doing in Smash. Then there is the Demifiend, which I am nowhere near as optimistic on. In my eyes if SMT gets in, it is gonna be from V or bust. Demifiend is from the best game in the franchise, but I am not confident that a Nocturne remaster is enough to push him over the edge.

Though I am more optimistic than most, I do think this is a bit of a left field pick. SMT is not a big series. I find it ironic that Persona has completely outgrown SMT after 3 and 4. Notice how 4's original release was SMT: Persona 4. Then its remaster is... Persona 4 Golden. The Persona spinoffs are Persona spinoffs, not SMT: Persona spinoffs. It seems to me at least that Joker getting in is something that at least in my eyes is a bit of a hurdle for SMT. Their foot is in the door, as Persona 3-5 is basically what Joker is repping, but its still an awkward situation.

Overall, an outside chance, but something interesting.

Abstain want

I can not rate this in good faith yet. I have made it clear that I expect if we get SMT content, it is V or bust. And there is the rub. I can't rate content as much when all I have to go off of is a teaser. I can envision a moveset based around SMT and calling demons like Jack Frost and the like to your aid, but I want to make sure that fits for V. Since most of the music will come from V, it also is a bit of a sitch for me rate.

That being said, the franchise is good. Get Nocturne, it is the best. It honestly is such a good RPG worth sinking your teeth into.

Concept: Coco as Crash's echo x 10
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
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Messages
2,014
By the way, on behalf of any potential Danganronpa players who had the surprises preserved for them, I'd like to thank everyone for tagging spoilers yesterday. For other characters I get why it might be cumbersome to spoilertag important aspects of discussion, but with mystery games I think preserving the mystery is akin to preserving the gameplay too. So thank you!
As i was one of those people i also really appreciated it. I bailed from the thread until i saw the day change so it really didnt effect me much either way but the thought counts a lot still
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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SMT from Wikipedia
Chance: 15%
Don't know alot about this series but I do know about the series legacy and influence of RPG's in Japan
sorta, how close it is to Nintendo and how many people had been waiting for the fifth one. That first partners showcase does make it seem like a series Nintendo wants to push so I would not be too suprised if we got a character out of it. I'm a little sceptical of ATLUS being represented in both passes but I do know the Persona content wouldn't disconfirm SMT.

Want: Abstaining

Klonoa: 5.95%
Hades (Kid Icarus) x5
 

Calamitas

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The acronym for Tokyo Mirage Sessions, except backwards

Chance: 10%

Once again I'm a bit surprised that I'm apparently more of an outlier in my rating. Now, if this were any kind of content from the series, I'd give a higher rating, but for a character. . . I'm just not really seeing it. Sure, SMT5 was announced at the Switch's reveal presentation, and is finally coming out in the foreseeable future. But the promotional angle that others have mentioned doesn't really fly I feel when you keep in mind that the series is still a third-party franchise, which historically never really made it in because of one new game that ties into their announcement and inclusion. And if you wanna go with the angle of an Atlus rep, since they supported the Switch. . . uh, Joker's right there. The fact that he didn't come with any SMT content is still a point in the series' favour, but I still don't see it as terribly likely.

Want: Abstain.
Never played a single SMT game, so no rating. I have a very, very minor interest in maybe getting this SMT3 remake/remaster/whatever that's coming out, but that's about it.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10 (or x5, if the lack of a proper want rating disqualifies me from getting the 10 noms).

Predicting Klonoa to get around 6.26%.
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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ZE BATH
Should we talk about how this franchise actually originates from a Book so it could technically be our first non-game originating franchise? No? Okay...

Chance: 1%

The token pessimist strikes again! Despite SMT's undeniably great resume, proper Nintendo presence unlike its trendy offspring, importance in gaming, and great potential and representation potential for stages, music and movesets, i think the chance is dead. We got Atlus's golden goose, Persona as the main representative, and while i don't think it makes SMT unlikely (i mean i gave Sora a decent score despite beign basically a FF Spin-Off) it means they didn't saw them as priority despite beign the franchise where Persona originates from.

The other reason and the bigger one.............................i don't see any interest for a SMT rep. Outside of one or two threads here, there is barely interest for a SMT rep in Smash. Not only that, but since it's a SEGA franchise, it has to compete with Arle Nadja and Kazuma Kiryu. Puyo Puyo is Sega of Japan's golden goose and has been requested by Japanese Smash fans since the Smash 4 DLC days, and Kazuma Kiryu is one of the biggest breakout franchises of Sega in the last years and probably would turn more heads if Sakurai feels to add an "out there" guest in Smash to up Joker. Nevermind all the other "non-Smash Bubble" characters that could prove to be more of Sakurai's interest.

Im not here to deny the merits of this series's inclusion, but i look at the circumstances, and the circumstances of this franchise for Smash are...........not good.

Want: 0%


Im not shedding a tear for this one. I don't care about Atlus's games, and Joker's presence in Smash has not done favors.

Though i'll be honest, a dual reveal trailer with the Demi-Fiend VS Doomguy would be ****ing sweet.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
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Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
But the promotional angle that others have mentioned doesn't really fly I feel when you keep in mind that the series is still a third-party franchise, which historically never really made it in because of one new game that ties into their announcement and inclusion.
We won't get a third party franchise for promotional reasons only. However, a third party franchise with a long history of acclaimed games, that also has a new game that could use the promotion? We've already gotten that.
 

SharkLord

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Pangaea, 250 MYA
The other reason and the bigger one.............................i don't see any interest for a SMT rep. Outside of one or two threads here, there is barely interest for a SMT rep in Smash. Not only that, but since it's a SEGA franchise, it has to compete with Arle Nadja and Kazuma Kiryu. Puyo Puyo is Sega of Japan's golden goose and has been requested by Japanese Smash fans since the Smash 4 DLC days, and Kazuma Kiryu is one of the biggest breakout franchises of Sega in the last years and probably would turn more heads if Sakurai feels to add an "out there" guest in Smash to up Joker. Nevermind all the other "non-Smash Bubble" characters that could prove to be more of Sakurai's interest.
I mean
:ultjoker:

:ult_terry:too.

MAYBE :ulthero: to a lesser extent, since while they're still fairly niche in the West, they probably got a lot more support in Japan.
 
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3DSNinja

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
SMT Representation
Chance: 75%
I am very confident in an SMT character coming to Smash? Why? Well, let's see. First, the Nocturne remaster and SMTV coming out next year are perfect for promotion. Second, SMT started on Nintendo systems. Third, Persona doesn't really affect it, as they are moreso series that coexist, rather then ones that are the same. As well, SMT getting a huge spotlight this year by Nintendo, which was kinda odd...Why was it such a big deal to them that they basically made a Partner Showcase just for Nocturne and SMTV? A smash character feels likely, IMO.
Want: 100%:
By god, I love SMT. Whether it be the great gameplay, the moral complexity, the amazing designs, the music..I just love it to pieces. And giving us SMT representation in Smash would be both perfect and awesome. And considering how miffed I am about how Joker was represented, I'd love a proper summoner character in Smash. Plus, SMT MUSIC IN SMASH!
Nominations: Hajime Hinata x5
 

Phoenix Douchebag

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I mean
:ultjoker:

:ult_terry:too.

MAYBE :ulthero: to a lesser extent, since while they're still fairly niche in the West, they probably got a lot more support in Japan.
Excpetion proves the norm. From fan requests, we got :ultsimon: :ultrichter: (as stated by Sakurai himself) :ultkrool::ultridley::ultdaisy::ultchrom::ultdarksamus: :ultbanjokazooie: plus every single veteran returning which was very popular (cut veterans tend rate very high in certain polls and are very talked about, see Mewtwo in Smash 4's pre-release days, Smash 4 DLC for Wolf and Lucas before his announcement, hell even ****ing Roy got a lot of requests albeit silent majority ones) Compare to the 3 you mentoined (though i guess you could also add :ultbyleth::ultpiranha::ultincineroar:depending on your view) those are the minority. Isabelle is a weird middle ground, because even though she wasn't a huge request by Hardcore Smash bubble members, it was still talked about a lot, the same can't be said for any particular SMT character from the Hardcore Smash people, the casuals, or even outsiders that do not have any major interest in Smash talk.

Im not denying that we can get characters that are not popular in the hardcore "Smash Bubble", but lightning can't strike multiple times in a row. I already happened twice, and i doubt it will happen with another character that just so happens to be ANOTHER SEGA/Atlus rep. (because you just mentioned Joker). Yeah.....don't see it happening. and even then i see other "outsider" characters beign more likely.
 
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SharkLord

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Excpetion proves the norm. From fan requests, we got :ultsimon: :ultrichter: (as stated by Sakurai himself) :ultkrool::ultridley::ultdaisy::ultchrom::ultdarksamus: :ultbanjokazooie: plus every single veteran returning which was very popular (cut veterans tend rate very high in certain polls and are very talked about, see Mewtwo in Smash 4's pre-release days, Smash 4 DLC for Wolf and Lucas before his announcement, hell even ****ing Roy got a lot of requests albeit silent majority ones) Compare to the 3 you mentoined (though i guess you could also add :ultbyleth::ultpiranha::ultincineroar:depending on your view) those are the minority. Isabelle is a weird middle ground, because even though she wasn't a huge request by Hardcore Smash bubble members, it was still talked about a lot, the same can't be said for any particular SMT character from the Hardcore Smash people, the casuals, or even outsiders that do not have any major interest in Smash talk.

Im not denying that we can get characters that are not popular in the hardcore "Smash Bubble", but lightning can't strike multiple times in a row. I already happened twice, and i doubt it will happen with another character that just so happens to be ANOTHER SEGA/Atlus rep. (because you just mentioned Joker). Yeah.....don't see it happening. and even then i see other "outsider" characters beign more likely.
For the base game, maybe, but I honestly don't know what the norm would be for the DLC so far. Not counting Piranha Plant, we got...
:ultjoker: Little Nintendo connections, recent game, little fan requests, little discussion
:ulthero: Strong Nintendo connections, recent game being pushed by Nintendo, little Western fan requests, likely a lot of Japanese fan requests, a good deal of discussion
:ultbanjokazooie: Strong Nintendo connections, no new release, tons of fan requests, lots of discussion as a result
:ult_terry: Decent Nintendo connections, no new release at the time, little fan requests, little discussion
:ultbylethf: First-party, recent game that was pushed by Nintendo, little/mild fan requests, decent amount of discussion
:ultminmin First-party, one game that had come and gone, little fan requests, little discussion*
*Note that Min Min refers to before the guessing game

Basing it off of the first pass, it's all over the place. Most had some degree of Ninendo connections, not many were very requested, and only half were discussed a lot. I find it rather tricky to pin down a real "standard" for the DLC beyond the content they'll bring with them.
 
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Cutie Gwen

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-Dual reveal trailer with Demi-Fiend that isn't featuring Dante from the Devil May Cry series
Do you even reject God?
Damn I just realized how in my post I never mentioned that Dante's the only character I see with a higher liklihood than an SMT character. Bonus points as Bayo's already in the game and the three crossed over because of the gacha game
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

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Jomosensual

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Megadoomer

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I predict that it will be Geno, and that Sakurai's comment at the end will be that Fighters Pass 2 is being delayed into 2022. It wouldn't be the first time that they tried softening the blow of a delay with a long-requested or popular character (a delay for Brawl was announced at the same time as Sonic's inclusion in Brawl).

I'm not sure if this is what would have been intended for the E3 reveal or not, but if so, it would fit the pattern of being a big fan favourite (like Ridley or Banjo/Kazooie) who had some kind of seemingly-major obstacle in their way.
 
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Perkilator

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I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Cash Banooca, since Crash 4 comes out the day after the presentation. I also feel like Sakurai will announce when CP7’s “Sakurai Presents” will be.

Or he might say “never ask me for anything ever again” or something to that effect

Noms:
Sakura Shinguji x5
 

Blankiturayman

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I think it's Geno. More than anything, just a gut feeling. I don't know how well it'll go but we'll see. I'd be cool with any character either way.

I figure Sakurai will talk about stuff regarding development, since we've been in the dark about when characters would be coming for a while. Just hoping the deadline for the pass isn't delayed. But if it is, well, what happens happens.

EDIT: Forgot to put Nominations: Zero (Mega Man) x5.
 
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Calamitas

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Quite frankly? I have no ****ing clue. If I had to place a guess I'd say that the this character is from an already represented first-party franchise, but I'm not convinced on that. As for Sakurai's message after the announcement, I'm gonna guess that he'll talk very briefly about the character, their choice, when we can expect his presentation which breaks down 9.0 update and everything that comes with it. A potential delay for Fighter Pass Volume 2 is also a distinct possibility.

Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x5.
 

Sari

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I'm gonna guess it's either Crash or Rex. I've already talked about them before but I just think they're likely in general. If not them I can see it being Travis, Geno, or Lloyd. A strange voice in the back of my head is also telling me that it could be a Gen 8 Pokemon...

I don't think the character will release right away. Maybe in a week or two but we should definitely have them by the end of the year. Mid October/early November is my best bet for CP7's release date.

The Sakurai thing at the end will definitely be about the virus and how the rest of the Fighters Pass will be affected by it. I can see the pass being pushed to 2022.

Nominations:
BotW Zelda x5
 

3DSNinja

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I'm putting my bet on Geno. Considering this is FP7, as well as them ONLY revealing the trailer which alone is kinda weird, meaning that the character must be a big enough deal that people wouldn't be mad with only a trailer, as well as him probably having been the planned E3 reveal, which makes sense, considering 2018 was Ridley, 2019 was Banjo..so Geno for 2020 makes sense. Also, probably a delay of FP2 and when Geno's full thing will be.
Nominations: Hajime Hinata x5
 
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