Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[DaUsername]

So the next fighter is being revealed on October 1, and Crash 4 releases on October 2.
That means the fighter is obviously gonna be someone completely unrelated that I don't care about. My money's on one of the Gen 8 Pokemon, most likely that soccer bunny, whatever its name is.
Sakurai will then announce that the rest of FP2 is cancelled, you're not getting any refunds, and he's retiring from the gaming industry forever.
Noms: Impa x5

 

[amageish]

Well... Um... All we have is the knowledge the trailer is 3 minutes long and it hasn't explicitly leaked yet.

So, um, based on the length of the trailer, I'm going to predict that it'll be structured like Hero's: [Character Reveal] - [Gameplay Showcase ft. Character Losing] - [Reveal of Alts, Main Gimmick of the Character, or Both] - [Gameplay Showcase ft. Victory] - [Final Smash].

If I had to predict something actually bold, then I'm leaning towards a first-party just because it hasn't leaked yet and they seem to be pretty malleable in when it's being shown off (i.e., it was likely delayed from E3 and then we have missing blog posts to indicate it was once in September and now it's now)...

I don't really expect a delay beyond this, but if we get one, then I predict there will be a free Mii Costume hat as an apology.

Nominations: Jill Stingray Mii Costume x 5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Who I think will be revealed tomorrow? Honest answer.

I seriously do think it could be anyone. That's a cop out answer but there really doesn't seem to be any clear frontrunner to me right now. Some characters are likelier than others but I'm not dead set on anyone. Like I guess the trailer having a running time that's on the long end of the spectrum could point towards a more "complex" character but that doesn't really narrow it down. Perhaps we'll get another unexpected third-party similiar to Joker. I know that Min Min started this pass of but I sorta see her as a "toe dip" and that 7 will be the start of the meat and potatoes, that's just my theory.

I guess I'm going with the Knight once again since they fit those attributes and I just really really want them.


Gen 8 mon worst case scenario tho, don't @ me.

Edit: About the Sakurai segment, I also don't know what it'll be. Could be anything from him delaying the deadling togiving a recap of what they showed to him just announcing when the character will release or when the proper Sakurai presentation will be.

Edit2: Hades (Kid Icarus) x5

 

[Wonks]

My practical side says Lloyd Irving is coming next.

My hopelessly foolish side says Ryo Hazuki from Shenmue.

Both sides are wrong though.

 

[SharkLord]

Who knows anymore. I've been sticking with Isaac and will continue to do so, but I'm not that confident in him. I'll keep clinging onto Reimu, but I'm not sure she's really E3 material, unless she was going to be revealed alongside CP8 there until Min Min shoved them back. Perhaps it'll be a complete left-fielder like ****ing Geralt that will blow all our minds; Bonus points if the Miis that come later will massacre all the big predictions. At best, I expect someone fairly big, but that doesn't narrow things down in the slightest.

 

[BowserKing]

I have a few options and guesses

My first prediction is Shantae, to promote the recent Shantae game. Also since Min-Min became playable, her chance has increased.

Next prediction is Sylux, given how much of a boost Metroid has gotten in playable reps. Sylux would be a long shot option however since the next Metroid Prime game is still on hold. That is all I’m going to say about that fighter.

Another long shot option that i’m predicting is Lugia, given that Pokémon will be available in the Crown Tundra in Sword and Shield. While it may be in a Pokéball, it also might have a chance as well. Speaking of Pokémon, Dragapult is another candidate, giving it’s popularity and deadly moves. Dragapult is also part ghost type, fitting for October.

There might be a few other choices like King Boo or another characters that would fit the October theme. That is all I’m going to say.

Noms: 5 for Giygas

 

[Brodemmars]

Rex or Cinderace if it's first party.

Rayman, Ryu H., or Crash if it's third party.

 

[YoshiandToad]

....yeah, I'll be honest I have no clue who this could be.

Impa to celebrate the upcoming Age of Calamity?
Captain Toad to celebrate the 35th Mario anniversary and 3D World's imminent arrival?
Bandana Waddle Dee because Kirby Fighters 2?
Rex because the first parties are all characters that debuted on Switch?
Tom Nook as Animal Crossing is the hottest game of this year?
The often discussed Sword and Shield Pokémon since we just had news about the Expansion pack?
Or how about a third party like Crash Bandicoot because he's a hot topic in general right now?
Travis Touchdown because the often outspoken Suda51 has suddenly become very coy about Travis in Smash...

More than likely it'll have absolutely nothing to do with any upcoming release but how can you predict it when Sakurai started FP1 off with JOKER, a character that was neither requested nor had an obvious connection to Nintendo or Smash in general.

Screw it, let's go with...Rex. I've been watching Xenoblade 2's cutscene story recently so he's fresh in my mind.

Nominate Chibi-Robo x 5

 

[warpenguin55]

I predict that it will be a video game character
Noms: Alex Mason x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Not a ****ing clue here tbh. I guess ill go Rex? Could see Geno as well since this was supposed to be the E3 reveal probably. Really think it could be anyone within reason

Aa for what Sakurai is announcing, i think hes going to announce that the pass has officially been delayed. However, im prediciting we will have one more fighter added as a bit of an apology and the pass end will be moved to the summer of 2022

Noms: Stretchers x5

EDIT: Kinda forgot about Travis. Feels like that's a possibility too. There's just straight up nothing out there right now though so I'm leaning first party as thats the scenario we've been in lately with the last 2 being 1st parties

 

[GoodGrief741]

I don't have any predictions for tomorrow, I get the feeling that it'll be a character that's been discussed but dismissed by most people. Call it a hunch. If I had to bet on a character for internet points, I'd go with Rex or Travis just because I feel like they're likeliest in general, but nothing points to them being next.

If it is either of those two, expect speculation for the foreseeable future to boil down to "who has/is getting a game on Switch?". So yeah that would be annoying. So the real wildcards for tomorrow would be a character, be they first or third party, without games on Switch. And that's not a large group.

As for what Sakurai will say afterward, I just assumed it's referring to the breakdowns he always does after every character. You know, this is X, they come from series Y, this is their stage, look at the cameos, check out these Miis, etc. If not, then we're probably getting at least a warning of a potential delay, at worst the deadline gets moved.

Noms go to Jason & SOPHIA

 

[Mr. MR]

Tomorrows Presentation

It's difficult to say:
I think Lu Bu has a chance still to be the next revealed character as the 20th anniversary of Dynasty Warriors is still fresh.
However, if I had to put money on it I would say it's Crash. The announcement seems to align with the release of Crash 4. We haven't gotten a new mainline Crash game since like 2008? Seems worthy of a celebration. There's also the problem of the next game having no Switch announcement. Considering the rumors of a Switch port, it wouldn't surprise me if we got Crash along with the official announcement of the game coming to Switch. IMO that's risky marketing because the Switch version would lose preorders during that time while they are counting to make it up in the hype of release and a new smash character.

There's also a possibility we will get two character reveals like we did with Hero and Banjo.

As for what happens afterwards, I think we will get a delay for the character and some mii costumes with music to tide us over.

Noms: I don't know if we are counting paragraphs and/or double noms today so just put everything on Impa

 

[Goombaic]

All in on Toxtricity. I think a Pokemon is coming in the first half of this pass, and FP7 seems like the best time for Toxtricity to join the game. Sakurai will probably explain that the pass will end later due to the pandemic. Best case scenario is that he gives us a roadmap for future announcements, but that seems doubtful at this point.

Nominations: Yarn Yoshi x5

 

[amageish]

As for what Sakurai will say afterward, I just assumed it's referring to the breakdowns he always does after every character. You know, this is X, they come from series Y, this is their stage, look at the cameos, check out these Miis, etc. If not, then we're probably getting at least a warning of a potential delay, at worst the deadline gets moved.

I'm very confused by what's actually airing tomorrow. The Tweet made it sound like it's just a reveal by highlighting the length of the actual character trailer itself... but then the YouTube livestream is "Mr Sakurai Presents '???'" as if it's a full Sakurai Presents with a complete breakdown and everything. So... That's odd...

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Prediction is Rex or Travis, leaning towards the former.

Hoping I'm wrong and its Crash.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Yesterday many of you wrote posts that qualified for 10 noms but you only gave out 5. If there are any questions about how that new rule works, please don't hesitate to ask! It's really no bother. If you're still in doubt, shoot the moon, give 10 noms anyway, and if you didn't qualify for them, I'll just count them as 5.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep pre-Fighter Pack 7 predictions

Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x190
Zelda (BotW universe) x180
The Stretchers x180
Sakura Shinguji x175
Billy Hatcher x175
Alex Mason x165
[Rerate] Frisk x150
Amiya (Arknights) x150

150 - 101

Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x140
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x131
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x115

100 - 51

Hades (Kid Icarus) x100
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x93
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x89
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x89
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x85
Concept: A Bravely Default character x85
Boss: Ender Dragon x83
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Zero (Mega Man) x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Stage: Bowser's Castle x71
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League rep x70
Giygas x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51

50 - 25

Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Boss: Rayquaza x50
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x45
Miriam x30
Hajime Hinata x30
Echo: Coco (Crash) x30

Under 25

Tetra x15
Cynthia (Pokémon) x5
Yarn Yoshi x5
Concept: Rocket League content x5
[Rerate] Thrall x5
Don-chan x5
Adol Christin x5
Impa (Age of Calamity) x5

Amiya settles into the top seven, tied with Frisk for the last spot.

Echo: Coco jumps past 25 noms. With Crash 4 right around the corner! It really is about time.

We have a triple threat of new contenders today! Give a warm welcome to Don-chan, Adol Christin, and Impa, all three with 5 noms. Wouldn't it be funny if one of them was revealed tomorrow?

 

[chocolatejr9]

It's hard for me to predict what's going on tomorrow. The length of the trailer has me confused on what could be in it. However, if it's a first party, it'll probably be Rex. Maybe Euden, but I won't get my hopes up on that one. Thing is, I don't know what character it would be if it were third party. Koei Tecmo and Level-5 both come to mind, but I can't decide if either of thrm is likely for a reveal this soon into the Pass. As for what Sakurai has to say, I wouldn't be surprised if it was a delay of some sort. 2020 has been a heck of a year, and I accepted that Nintendo was hit especially hard a LONG time ago...

Nominations: Billy Hatcher x10 (we're doing double noms today, right?)

 

[YoshiandToad]

Yesterday many of you wrote posts that qualified for 10 noms but you only gave out 5. If there are any questions about how that new rule works, please don't hesitate to ask! It's really no bother. If you're still in doubt, shoot the moon, give 10 noms anyway, and if you didn't qualify for them, I'll just count them as 5.

Is it possible to get a reminder as to what qualifies 10 noms opposed to 5? I think I missed this rule.

 

[Doomguy46]

So I really have no clue who would be shown tomorrow. It's felt like most hype has sorta died for it for me, only two real options would truly satisfy me after this long a wait, doomguy and heavy. But as for my predictions, rex, a gen 8 rep, or crash. I'd be happy with rex but I don't think the other two would be interesting personally. I see a lot of talk for Minecraft steve, and I'm not sure. Maybe. I'd be pretty happy with it if he's well animated, which is where I most often find myself disagreeing on how he should be handled. But hey, none of these are real lock ins for me, so I think it's super likely I get surprised by this.

 

[RouffWestie]

I'm defaulting to Arle Nadja; she'll have an alternate character as part of her costumes, and I'm assuming a decent chunk of time will be spent explaining her complex mechanics and emulating those pre-game conversations the characters have. I feel like she's going to show up at some point, so I'll just assume any reveal is her unless otherwise specified. Honorable mentions go to Ryu Hayabusa - who is very likely due to his NES legacy and Koei-Tecmo's strong relationship with Nintendo - and Travis Touchdown - who has been fairly requested since the previous Smash and could possibly have been hinted at when Suda had, "a big no comment," during a recent interview about Travis in Smash for the first time.

 

[Deleted member]

To say who's being revealed tomorrow is pretty much anyone's guess, so Ima just believe it's a character from Koei-Tecmo with how much they have going for them.

Now, the only thing that really sticks out on the announcement is Sakurai giving an update. I have a really bad feeling this update would be not so good news like extending Vol 2's completion date from December 2021 to June 2022 whether if it's because development ended up being too slow to meet their placeholder goals or staff members testing positive for COVID-19 and halting development until further notice (yeah I know Sakurai said they're working remotely at home but that doesn't mean they'll work while sick with COVID). There's also the possibility that Sakurai will say presentations are no more and DLC info will be spread out through Social Media from now on to save on their budget. It could end up going both ways, so I'm expecting the worst.

 

[RileyXY1]

To say who's being revealed tomorrow is pretty much anyone's guess, so Ima just believe it's a character from Koei-Tecmo with how much they have going for them.

Now, the only thing that really sticks out on the announcement is Sakurai giving an update. I have a really bad feeling this update would be not so good news like extending Vol 2's completion date from December 2021 to June 2022 whether if it's because development ended up being too slow to meet their placeholder goals or staff members testing positive for COVID-19 and halting development until further notice (yeah I know Sakurai said they're working remotely at home but that doesn't mean they'll work while sick with COVID). There's also the possibility that Sakurai will say presentations are no more and DLC info will be spread out through Social Media from now on to save on their budget. It could end up going both ways, so I'm expecting the worst.

The Japanese announcement does not mention a message from Sakurai.

 

[Deleted member]

The Japanese announcement does not mention a message from Sakurai.

Well that sounds a bit reassuring, but I'm still going to think the worst cause it could still end up being not so good news anyways.

 

[RileyXY1]

Well that sounds a bit reassuring, but I'm still going to think the worst cause it could still end up being not so good news anyways.

But still, it if was bad news, they probably would put it in the Japanese livestream unless Sakurai decided that he wanted to announce it in Famitsu over there for some reason.

 

[Brodemmars]

Maybe he's going to announce that he'll be improving online for Westerns

 

[Mr. MR]

Maybe he's going to announce that he'll be improving online for Westerns

 

[GoodGrief741]

Is it possible to get a reminder as to what qualifies 10 noms opposed to 5? I think I missed this rule.

Sure! The rule is that if you write enough, you get 10 noms instead of the regular 5. To qualify, the rules are as follows:
• If you give chance and want, then you need to write at least 10 sentences (5 for each).
• If you give just one score (only chance or only want), or if you abstain, then you need to write 5 sentences.

 

[Jomosensual]

Just to be clear guys, this doesn't appear to be a Sakurai presents. Just a reveal with a message at the end from Sakurai.


EDIT: Or is it? Youtube video IS labeled as a Sakurai presents so now I'm confused

 

[PeridotGX]

I'm going all in on Minecraft Steve. I feel like there's a lot of things going for him, some smal, some big.

• Very popular, a fitting E3 reveal.
• I could imagine Nintendo wanting to get as much out of the Microsoft partnership as possible, because there's no guarantee how long it will last.
• Minecraft helped Banjo get in, Nintendo might return the favor.
• Most of the longer trailers were either for multiple/complex characters (Belmont, Hero. Smash 4 Palutena) or slower-paced trailers simmilar to in their game (Isabelle, Byleth). I could easily see Steve being in either of those categories.
• He is not lightweight and would probably have a projectile.
• We know this character is practically done (via the missing tourney slots), but they're not going into detail. What if they're waiting for Minecon?

The last time I was this confident about a character, it was... Arle for FP5. My gut doesn't exactly have the best track record, but I'm still gonna belive it unconditionally!

noms: PMD x maximum

 

[DanganZilla5]

10/1 Predictions

So I have been thinking about this for a while. I decided that I will give my top 5 most likely for tomorrow. Keep in mind that this is not definitive because Smash speculation is just so unpredictable. For this top 5, I went in with the assumption that this fighter was planned for E3. I know it might not be wise to use patterns from the previous pass, especially considering how different both passes started off, but judging by Min Min's timing there was a good chance that there was a character planned for E3 and I will explain myself more as we go. Keep in mind this is not in any order:

• Monster Hunter - I know, the latest bandwagon character that might get a spirit event anyways, etc, etc. But I'm really feeling confident in this. I feel like MH could be the Hero of this pass. MH is another Japanese game series that has been big in Japan for a while now, but unlike DQ it actually hit the mainstream thanks to World. The fact that Nintendo gave so much attention to Monster Hunter in the last partner showcase and the fact that it got its own direct says a lot about how successful the series has been recently. I'm getting DQ 11 vibes with how much Nintendo and Capcom seem to be pushing the series. So I feel like this is a good bet.
• Geno: Again, assuming that this fighter was meant for E3, I think Geno has an actual shot. People keep bringing up the point about how the past two E3s revealed a fan favorite (Ridley and Banjo) and I have a feeling this year will be no different. I also find it suspicious that the Smash tourney event announced in the Mario 35th Direct seemed so far off. To me, it seemed like that they are waiting on another Mario character to be added to the character list before the tourney began. And overall there has been little bits and pieces of evidence for Geno building up. Nothing substantial, but the amount of talk that Geno has gotten recently even outside the core Smash community reminds me of how much talk Banjo got last year.
• A Gen 8 Pokemon - Not much here honestly. I'm just keeping this as a worst case scenario in mind so I don't get burned like with Byleth. In a way I'm not expecting this because judging by Smash 4 DLC and the first Fighters Pass they seem to keep the underwhelming characters near the end of the DLC season. I will be half-expecting this though so when it is revealed to be something other than Pokemon, I can be hyped.
• Crash Bandicoot - No particular reason and it's not because of Crash 4 coming soon. I'm just confident in him and he is a great character for a E3 reveal.
• A left field pick - A character who the community might mention here and there, but doesn't get much attention overall. Or a hype character that will shock everyone like Master Chief or Gordon Freeman.

Honorable mention goes to Rex. Just because I think he is overall the most likely character, though I have a hunch that it's probably not his time yet.

Edit: I predict that Sakurai will announce at the end that FP2 will be delayed until 2022.

Noms: Arthur x10

GoodGrief741 nevermind you already addressed the noms rules

 

[amageish]

Just to be clear guys, this doesn't appear to be a Sakurai presents. Just a reveal with a message at the end from Sakurai.


EDIT: Or is it? Youtube video IS labeled as a Sakurai presents so now I'm confused

It is confusing. It doesn't seem that the Japanese video is labelled like that though, so maybe the secrecy about the character within Nintendo is so strong that whoever uploaded the video didn't know to not label it a Sakurai Presents?

No idea...

 

[SharkLord]

It is confusing. It doesn't seem that the Japanese video is labelled like that though, so maybe the secrecy about the character within Nintendo is so strong that whoever uploaded the video didn't know to not label it a Sakurai Presents?

No idea...

Maybe they just heard Sakurai would be there and thought it was a Sakurai Presents based on that alone.

 

[Mr. MR]

Does anyone know how Japan has been getting their Smash reveals presented so we can compare it to this one?

 

[Jomosensual]

Maybe they just heard Sakurai would be there and thought it was a Sakurai Presents based on that alone.

That seems like a good guess as the tweet for sure didn't read like it was supposed to be a Sakurai Presents show

 

[NeonBurrito]

I'm guessing it's either a Gen 8 Pokemon or Rex. Gen 8 Pokemon because Pokemon are always promotable, Sword/Shield were financial successes, and now would be a good time to coincide with the DLCs releasing (in a similar situation to Byleth). The fire rabbit is probably the one they'd go with just because it seems to be the Lucario/Greninja of the generation, but I don't really care who they pick because I didn't bother with Sword/Shield. Rex because he's probably decently popular enough to be warrant an E3 reveal if they originally planned for it, XC2 is something Nintendo has been fond of promoting as its Monolith's biggest success to date, and XC2 initially missed the base game by just a hair (in a similar situation to Min Min).

I just don't really expect anything ground breaking anymore. I think people are getting their hopes up way too high when I get the feeling that just like Joker did for out-of-the-box third party characters in Pass 1, Min Min is probably going to be representing Pass 2 in a similar way (less "out there" characters, more first parties). I'd love to be proven wrong though.

 

[GoodGrief741]

To clarify, the 10 noms are for 5 sentences for both chance and want correct? Because I keep seeing people give 10 sentences for chance then abstain on want and they ask for 10 noms.

Generally I count sentences per character, so if you get to the required number overall it doesn't matter whether it was labeled as being for chance or for want. That's because sometimes people format their posts to have all the reasoning together, undivided, and I don't think formatting should dictate whether someone gets their posts counted.

For that case, in which someone writes ten sentences for a single score, then yeah, they'd get the 10 noms.

 

[amageish]

Maybe they just heard Sakurai would be there and thought it was a Sakurai Presents based on that alone.

Solid theory and decent explanation.

Does anyone know how Japan has been getting their Smash reveals presented so we can compare it to this one?

Ugh, yeah, none of the older presentations have "Sakurai Presents" on them in Japanese either. They all just seem to be "How to Use [Character]"... I don't know what they were called before the character was revealed though.

 

[Pinguino21v]

Considering both the seemingly lack of leak, and the strong possibility the reveal was delayed to be shown as a stand alone, I'm expecting a first party. It could be Elma/Rex, Paper Mario, maybe Isaac. You know what? It may even be a retro pick, or a character mainly known in Japan, if Sakurai presentation is global exclusive, but I'm not really expecting that tbh.

If it's third party, it is certainly a character from a close to Nintendo or close to Sakurai studio or creator. Capcom, Bamco, Level 5, Koei, or Travis... Something like that.
What is out tomorrow, still IMO, is western character.

 

[SilverSoul24]

Since tomorrow is a significant date for many likely newcomers, here's 5 predictions (ranked from most to least likely) for both third-party and first-party newcomers.

Third-Party:
1. Crash Bandicoot, 2. Geno, 3. Doom Slayer, 4. KOS-MOS (for Monolithsoft's anniversary), 5. Master Chief

First-Party:
1. Any Gen VIII Pokemon, 2. Rex, 3. Impa (Age of Calamity incarnation), 4. Bandana Waddle Dee, 5. Sylux (to tie in with the upcoming Prime 4 or the rumored 2D Metroid title)

Honestly, though, I'd be super okay with an out-of-left-field pick that nobody saw coming to really shake up the speculation game.

 

[SargeAbernathy]

Anyone's guess really.

I'll say ... Geno. With Doom Guy as a surprise double announcement. (I know that's crazy! Let me have this!)

Darkhorse 'Want' pick: Agumon (I keep imagining a trailer opening like the Charizard/Greninja one, but then you see Urshifu fall .... and look up to see...)