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Ezio from Ezio. Or would he be Ezio from Altair?
Chance: 0%.
They would've saved the Altair costume for him, or maybe have Altair be a costume for him instead of Mii Swordfighters. On top of it, Smash and Ubisoft just have a very weird relationship where they can get everything BUT fighters.
Want: Abstain.
I have no connection to Assassin's Creed. Although I at least want to eventually play ACIV.
Chance: 15%
I think series with base game content (Monster Hunter, ARMS, etc.) are back in the running while those that got something during the second Fighters Pass (Tekken, Fallout) are done with. That leads us to Ezio, whose series got a Mii Costume at the end of the first Fighters Pass alongside a Rabbids Mii Hat. I’m not exactly sure where series that got content in FP1 stand in terms of chances for FP2. I’m leaning towards them not getting anything though it's hard to say since there are so many factors to account for. All of the FP1 Mii Costumes could've been decided on in 2018 while the FP2 characters were decided on in 2019 for all we know.
I do find it strange how they added an Altair Mii Costume and not an Ezio one when he is way more popular. Maybe they're saving Ezio for something later down the line especially since Ubisoft has been pretty close with Nintendo recently. I'll give him a relatively safe score of 15% since their are so many factors in play (this was the hardest rating I've done in a while).
Want: Abstain
Never got into AC so I won’t comment.
Gonna abstain today since I don't have time for a full writeup. But there is one major point that makes me believe that Ezio more than likely isn't happening.
One pattern that's held true is if a charcter got a DLC Mii costume, then if said franchise's character got a DLC fighter they will ALWAYS come with that character. We have yet to see anything break this pattern. Persona costunes came with Joker, Dragon Quest with Hero, FF/KOF with Terry and Ninjara with Min Min. Altair, if Ezio was coming, would've come with him instead of Byleth.
Assassin's Creed is interesting in that it's based on real life events, but characters like Ezio are fictional and created for the games. So while there are real life elements in the series, it doesn't hurt the series' chances, at least in my eyes since many of the elements in the series are original and created for the games.
This may or may not be unpopular, but I think Ezio is Ubisoft's frontrunner and is more likely than Rayman. Not only is AC Ubisoft's moneymaker, it has been one of the most successful and iconic series in recent times. Another big plus is that unlike Rayman, AC actually seems to be popular in Japan. I don't have numbers to back this up, but a really interesting fact is that AC Odyssey has a Switch port, but it's via the cloud and only in Japan. I'm not exactly sure why that is, but it's interesting that Ubisoft bothered to port the game at all, and it's another way to promote the series in Japan. It also helps that AC has gotten other ports to Switch with AC 3 and the Rebel Collection.
Some people have concerns about Ezio's moveset and the fact that he mostly uses swords and basic guns. But don't get the wrong idea. Ezio is an assassin so he would play differently from any other fighter already in the game. You only have to look at some gameplay of his AC games to learn about some of the crazy maneuvers and stunts he can pull off.
But the one big thing holding back my score is the Altair costume that was released at the very end of the first fighters pass when Volume 2 was already decided. You could say this really hurts Ezio's chances as they would have included Altair with Ezio, but we don't know how far back that Mii costume was negotiated for, plus the Mii costumes have had some random placements so it's really hard to tell on this one. I do think this does hurt Ezio's chances a little bit, but again we know so little about the date of negotiations so it's hard to know one way or another. Another center of doubt comes in with Nintendo and Ubisoft's relationship. They are so close, yet Ubisoft has got almost everything except for a fighter. Not to mention there are other western companies that are close to Nintendo too so I can't say I'm super confident in Ubisoft getting a character.
With all that said, Ezio's chances are looking good. But there are still some unknown factors that prevent me from being very confident in AC getting a character.
Want: 75%
I am a big fan of the AC games. I loved Black Flag, I have been enjoying AC 3 so far, and I'm also playing through AC 2 right now. Ezio would be a really fun character with some assassin gimmicks. AC also takes place mostly in the animus, a computer program that simulates events from the past. So the stage could consist of Ezio's home city then it could simulate a naval battle from Black Flag then simulate a location from say Origins or Unity. So there is a lot they could do with the stage and that alone excites me. And of course, the music in the series is generally great. So I would be hyped if AC got a character and Ezio would be the perfect rep.
Abstain. With the recent news of Michel Ancel also being one of the many things wrong with Ubisoft, I know that I cannot give a fair and as objective as I can rating to a character from Ubisoft.
Chance: 5%. He might not be a Mii Costume in the first fighter’s pass, but that franchise did, and that narrows the chance down. Also I think that if we get a Ubisoft Rep, it would be Ray-Man, but Ezio’s chance is not impossible, to say the least.
Want: 50%. While I prefer it if Ray-Man is the first Ubisoft Rep, Ezio could be a fun to play as. If he does show up, I can see him and a few other fighter s fight the Miis dressed up like them. Overal, Ezio would be a decent choice for Smash bros.
Chance: 0% Assassin's Creed is certainly a franchise with merit to Smash, the series has been going on for a while and Ezio himself is perhaps one of the biggest modern icons of gaming. However, there's a reason I and many others will say he has no chance, and that is the Altair costume. If Ezio was going to be in the game, they'd save an AC costume for when Ezio comes out.
Want: 40% It's quite a shame too really, I myself don't care about the franchise, hell, when I saw the movie when a friend invited me I felt nothing for the entire damn film, but a lot of my friends adore the franchise and Ezio's no stranger to fighting games, especially as he's got many ways to work, I for one can envision him as a mobile character with stubby hitboxes due to the nature of the hidden blades. Plus hey, Roger Craig Smith would have to record lines so maybe they'll actually get him to make voice clips for Sonic in Smash should Ezio get added
Altair's the popular one in Japan, I think Xander Mobus said he was asked to make a voice clip for him that ultimately ended up being to make sure he didn't know for sure who was or wasn't in the game
Me: makes a long-ass post about why Tidus could be picked over other Final Fantasy characters
Everyone: I just don't see any reason why he'd be picked over everyone else
Hurtsman.png
Klonoa x240
Moogle x225
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x205
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x195
Echo: Xion (Sora) x183
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x180
Concept: Deltarune content x176
200 - 151
Sakura Shinguji x162
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x162
Alex Mason x160
The Stretchers x155
Billy Hatcher x155
Zelda (BotW universe) x155
150 - 101
[Rerate] Frisk x150
Amiya (Arknights) x135
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x131
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
100 - 51
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x100
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x90
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x88
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Hades (Kid Icarus) x80
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x80
Fulgore x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x74
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League repx70
Zero (Mega Man) x70
Stage: Bowser's Castle x66
Giygas x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x55
Concept: A Bravely Default character x55
Echo (Olimar) x51
50 - 25
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Boss: Rayquaza x50
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x25
Did I forget a noms purge or did I not reach sentence requirement on September 8th? I had 20 noms that day (five I won previously and a fifteen bonus that everyone was granted that day) and they all went to Tetra.
I've tried to make every post of mine that wasn't an abstain since then at least three sentences long if not longer. If I really need to stretch my posts out that much just to make ratings and nominations count, then I think I'm done posting here.
A man voiced by Sonic the Hedgehog Chance: 1%
If we are getting a challenger pack for the AC franchise then I do not get why the Altair costume would release so much earlier in advance. You could argue that costume was part of FP1 but both it and vol 2 were revealed in the same presentation so I feel at that point why not save it for later? He's way more popular than that Altair guy from what I've heard but as I've expressed with Pokemon, I don't believe popularity is enough to bend established trends and precedents. And let's not forget we are still talking about a western IP here, so I wouldn't be suprised if that Altair costume is all there is. He also competes with Rayman and yes, I know how much more succesfull and relevant AC is compared to the Rayman games and that it's Ubi's flagship franchise. You don't need to tell me twice All I have to say to that is: Banjo.
Want: 0%
Yeah, no offense to Ezio or the AC games he's part of, I just really prefer Rayman and would not take any other Ubisoft rep over him. Yes, that's narrowminded of me and there's more to Ubisoft than him but AC just doesn't look like my cup of tea.
Shuichi: 5.17%
Deltarune content x10 (not using my extra noms here, just testing the new 10x thing, just count 5 if my post doesn't fulfill)
Chance: 10%. I feel like this rating comes with an implied "Concept: The Atliar Mii Costume was already contracted for and had to be made/released with Byleth per said contract, so that's why AC got Mii Costume and will later get a character." which is... already an obstacle to overcome IMO. It could have happened and may have happened, but it feels like something that would require fairly specific circumstances. It's also worth noting the Cuphead devs had made comments about Smash in the middle of FP1, which makes me feel like the costumes probably weren't negotiated for at the start as I imagine there would be some NDAs involved, but who really knows...
As for Ezio himself, he's definitely a beloved character from a longrunning series that people love. It's a good position to be in, but with 5 slots left... It's hard to say. We've just got a lot of third party companies with long histories working with Nintendo left - we could overfill the pass with just third party charactes from companies not currently represented with playable characters in Smash who have actively developed games for Nintendo using Nintendo-owned IPs. And that would assuming we don't get any more first parties or that any company already in Smash gets another rep, which seems unlikely... I think it's very possible Ubisoft (or at least Asssassin's Creed) gets left with just a costume...
Maybe I'm just becoming a speculation cynic and am slowly going to lower all my scores until everyone gets 1% as nothing is knowable and truth is unobtainable and then I become the Michel Foucault of Smash Bros sitting in the corner rambling about what facts mean... or maybe I just am less confidant in Assassin's Creed then other people are, idk...
Want: 50%. I've actually only played the modern and generally-regarded-as-worse Assassin's Creed titles, but the music is good and the moveset potential is definitely there. I also am a sucker for concepts that would likely result in stages based on real places... I don't think I'd be hype for Ezio, but I'd certainly welcome him into the roster.
Noms: Moogle x 5
Prediction: Lots of unmarked V3 spoilers, lots of comparisons to Monokuma, and I feel sad and go read Saimatsu fluff until I feel better. 6%
Chance: 33%
As far as I'm concerned, Ezio is Ubisoft's frontrunner. He's incredibly iconic, from one of the biggest franchises of all time. Assassin's Creed is even popular in Japan, a rarity for Western franchises (and in that regard he beats Rayman, who despite being a cartoony platformer never broke out over there).
Many have mentioned the Mii Costumes that came with Byleth. My stance on them is that the fact that Altair was chosen over Ezio is highly suspect. At the very least, it indicates that Ubisoft isn't over with content, which bodes well for Ezio.
The one reason I'm hesitant to pin him as even likelier is that he comes from a huge franchise, much bigger than any we've had for DLC so far. So the pricetag might be a bit too high. Then again, this is Ubisoft we're talking about, they're desperate to get their **** in Smash, so maybe they could lower the asking price from what it would normally be for AC. Hell, they could use the good PR.
Want: 90%
Assassin's Creed II is a fantastic game. I've also heard great things from the other games in the Ezio trilogy. And overall Assassin's Creed's impact on the medium can't be ignored. So I'm all for a character getting into Smash. Plus Ezio's a great, funny character, and he's got tons of unique moves and tools at his disposal, and yeah, I think he'd make a great addition to Smash.
Noms: Jason and SOPHIA x10
Shuichi prediction: 0.98%
As with other Danganronpa days, I'd like to request that people tag their spoilers appropriately. However with the nature of Shuichi as a character I'm not sure if it'll be possible.
Did I forget a noms purge or did I not reach sentence requirement on September 8th? I had 20 noms that day (five I won previously and a fifteen bonus that everyone was granted that day) and they all went to Tetra.
I've tried to make every post of mine that wasn't an abstain since then at least three sentences long if not longer. If I really need to stretch my posts out that much just to make ratings and nominations count, then I think I'm done posting here.
The one reason I'm hesitant to pin him as even likelier is that he comes from a huge franchise, much bigger than any we've had for DLC so far. So the pricetag might be a bit too high. Then again, this is Ubisoft we're talking about, they're desperate to get their **** in Smash, so maybe they could lower the asking price from what it would normally be for AC. Hell, they could use the good PR.
I have to ask: How are you defining big here? As it's nowhere near as profitable as Dragon Quest if we include merch/film/non-game-forms-of-media sales... It has shipped a lot of games, but it's still beat by Final Fantasy... It's definitely big, but I don't think it's unprecedentedly huge.
I do wonder how high up the desire to get Ubisoft content in Smash goes, as most of the examples we've seen have seemingly been from Rayman devs and social media people.
As with other Danganronpa days, I'd like to request that people tag their spoilers appropriately. However with the nature of Shuichi as a character I'm not sure if it'll be possible.
I have to ask: How are you defining big here? As it's nowhere near as profitable as Dragon Quest if we include merch/film/non-game-forms-of-media sales... It has shipped a lot of games, but it's still beat by Final Fantasy... It's definitely big, but I don't think it's unprecedentedly huge.
I mean that all the DLC characters in Ultimate have been from smaller franchises, in terms of games sold. The hypothetical runner-up, Dragon Quest, has sold less than 60% of the games that Assassin's Creed has sold, and Nintendo probably worked out a deal to heavily promote DQXIS.
It would be the second best-selling third party franchise to get a fighter, so I'd say it is still somewhat unprecedented.
A possible 3rd Italian for Smash? Is Wario Italian or Wa-Italian?
Chance: 68%
Main points I'll discuss:
Strong Legacy from a Strong Franchise
Popular and Well Known
Good relations with the Nintendo Ubisoft has
Internal Competition
Altair Mii Costume
Assassin's Creed is Ubisoft's blackflag flagship franchise and has been a major player and a strong influence in gaming in the last decade. It's also a franchise that has been referenced in many games as well and had a crossover with Soul Calibur V. Assassin's Creed happens to be really popular around the world including Japan. In fact, Assassin's Creed is one of the most successful Western series in Japan, making it a franchise that generally everyone would enjoy in a crossover, which is why it already has content in Smash. To get to this point Ubisoft has been slowly infiltrating Smash like a trained assassin with trophies in Smash 4, spirits and Mii Costumes in Ultimate, and Nintendo crossover games.
At this current time Ubisoft and Nintendo have a friendly and close relationship. I tend to rate crossover games with Nintendo franchises very highly when it comes to getting a character in Smash and for that reason I think it's only a matter of time for Ubisoft to get a playable character in Smash. So the question is which character will Ubisoft and Nintendo choose? I think the top choices are between their flagship franchise Assassin's Creed and their company mascot Rayman (forget Rabbids). It's true Rayman is more Nintendo friendly than an assassin but I think Ezio is far more relevant and iconic. The Ubisoft of today (for better or worse) exists because of Assassin’s Creed. I don’t even know if Ubisoft even likes Rayman the same way it loves Assassin’s Creed. However, I do think Rayman gives adequate competition for the spot and I wouldn't be surprised if we got either one, but personally I think it leans towards Assassin's Creed.
So why Ezio over the other assassins? Ezio is neither the first nor the most recent, however he is the most popular and has his own trilogy within his series. I think of this like a Cloud situation where Final Fantasy is not represented by the first protagonist nor the most recent, but because of his sheer popularity he ends up as Mr. Final Fantasy. In the same way Ezio is THE Assassin. I don't think Ubisoft will promote AC Valhalla with a Smash inclusion from that game and Altair has already been Mii Costumed. Personally I find it weird that we got an Altair Mii Costume. In America they announced the Mii Costume as the crossover Smash x Altiar and not Smash x Assassin's Creed like they did everywhere else. Some theories say it was simple censorship (which could be it) and some say it's proof that Ezio is going to get into Smash. Whatever it was, it was weird decision. But the main point is that they decided to put in Altair and not Ezio the most popular and most recognizable and I find that pretty suspect.
Want: 100%
Do I want Ezio in Smash? Yes! Definitely!! Absolutely!!! I loved the first Assassin's Creed and the second more. I was super excited when the third was announced for WiiU. I even made movesets for Altair, Ezio, and Connor way back in the day. I haven't touched Assassin's Creed in a long time but I still love the first three games. I plan to play Blackflag eventually as I heard it was amazing - perhaps it will be the next game I start. If Ezio does get in I will play through Blackflag for the hype. I have played some Rayman games and enjoyed them well enough but I want Ezio in so much more.
Klonoa x240
Moogle x230
[Rerate] Prince of All Cosmos x215
[Rerate] Monster Hunter x200
Echo: Xion (Sora) x191
Concept: Deltarune content x181
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x180
200 - 151
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x177
Alex Mason x165
Sakura Shinguji x164
Zelda (BotW universe) x165
The Stretchers x160
Billy Hatcher x160
150 - 101
[Rerate] Frisk x150
Amiya (Arknights) x140
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x131
D.Va x115
Red (Angry Birds) x115
Jason Frudnick & SOPHIA x110
100 - 51
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x95
Mii Costume: Alex Kidd x88
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x84
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Riptor x80
Hades (Kid Icarus) x80
Concept: A Microsoft rep that isn't Steve or Master Chief x80
Fulgore x79
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x79
Concept: More ATs as one new item x75
Zero (Mega Man) x75
Boss: Ender Dragon x73
Stage: Bowser's Castle x71
[Rerate] Concept: Boss Rush x70
Concept: Rocket League repx70
Giygas x60
Arthur (Ghosts 'n Goblins) x60
Concept: A Bravely Default character x60
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x55
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x55
Concept: Fortnite character x55
Gooigi x55
Vi (Bug Fables) x55
Echo (Olimar) x51
50 - 25
Echo: Zeraora (Lucario) x50
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x50
Magolor x50
John Marston x50
Jin Sakai x50
[Rerate] Monokuma x50
Ghirahim x50
Boss: Rayquaza x50
[Rerate] Chibi-Robo x35
Concept: Deltarune content passes Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (funnily enough, one technically describes the other). The former's now in sixth place, the latter falls to the last one.
Chance 30 - Think theres some solid stuff both ways here. Starting with the positive, Ubisoft has content in Smash already and has a good relationship with Nintendo. Even if he isn't the most requested character from the company he is the most iconic by a lot. Also, its seems like Ubisoft pushes the series pretty hard, which is always a good sign when it's time for a series like that to get more things. Theres also the fact that the series did really well in Japan, and no matter if I'm annoyed by the extreme Japanese bias at times, it's still present so it's gonna factor in. That's some good stuff in his favor. So what's the issue? The Altier Mii Costume bothers me. While in the US it didn't say it, internationally we got the Smash X Assassins Creed screen. Makes me feel like thats it for the series, as I don't really feel confident in them intentionally giving away a big moment like that to a mii costume before showing us the character. While ordering things isn't always what Nintendo is the best at this lacks quite a bit of logic to me. Could easily see myself going way high if I didn't have to worry about that mii costume though, because that's the only piece of evidence I have against him right now.
Want 70 - AC is one of the biggest game series of the last 10 years or so and Ezio is an icon of gaming. His inclusion would be huge and theres pretty much no reason not to take him if you can get him.
Noms:
Stretchers x10 daily noms
Non Steve/Chief Microsoft rep - all my extra noms
I feel iffy about Altair Mii costume. As others already said, Altair costume would've come with Ezio. Mii costume should be accompanied by the same franchise that playable characters come from. I just don't see any point of holding back Mii costume only to bring a character from the same series later on. Still, AC is one of the franchises that are notable in Japan. There may be possibility that Sakurai/Nintendo might have changed their decision... who knows? This may break the pattern.
Want: 100%
Which is shame... I grew up with AC. I played most of the games. Ezio trilogy is definitely the most memorable one as it showed the most character development from what I've seen. I may change my decision once I finish Origin and Oddysey one day. Ezio is not a simple swordman. He has variety of weapons and tools to distinguish himself from other swordmen. He mainly uses his trademark, double hidden blades, so he is pretty unique. Add to that, gun, smoke bomb, his pupils, etc... It's pretty easy to come up with moveset.
Ezio
Chance: 20%
Like Mr. MR
states, Assassin's Creed is the flagship series of Ubisoft.
Rayman may be the more popular Ubisoft choice, but AC is popular the world over, broke into Hollywood and Ezio, NOT Altaïr, is the most popular of the many protagonists of the franchise by far.
The Mii costume puts a bit of a dampner on it perhaps but let's not forget about the Chrom and Black Knight Mii fighter outfits DLC from 4 for why Mii outfit release timings shouldn't matter.
Neither FE Miis released alongside either Roy(who was released a month prior to them alongside unrelated mii outfits) nor were they saved to debut alongside Corrin who appeared much much later than either outfit.
Want: 65%
My only experience with Assassin's Creed is my girlfriend who really enjoys Ezio's game. I've been watching her replay it recently and it's a lot of fun. If Ezio got in I'd not be mad even if I, like most Smash fans, prefer Rayman as a potential Ubisoft character.
The Main Character of Animal Crossing, Astral Chain, and Air Conditioning
Chance: 5%
Guess I'm one of the outliers in this rating, huh? Well, my reasoning here is simple. Assassin's Creed may be a Western series that has found success in Japan. . . but at the end of the day, it's still just that: A Western third-party IP. With a lack of historical precedent, and an Assassin's Creed Mii costume already having made it into Smash, I'm just having a really hard time seeing any character from that series having a particularly good chance. There are just several Western series that I could reasonably see being the first to "truly" break this Western third-party ceiling for Smash (Banjo & Kazooie I still disregard for this, since they were originally Nintendo characters and had years of extremely strong fan demand). But Assassin's Creed, I don't see being that series.
Want: Abstain.
Never touched a single Assassin's Creed game, and don't intend to. No want rating from me.
Nominating Concept: A Bravely Default character x10.
Hoo boy, Shuichi. Due to the nature of his character being very hard to explain spoilerfree, I'll honour the people who asked for spoiler tags. Do NOT click on them if you haven't played the game and plan on doing so. Unless you're GoodGrief and need to check the sentences lmao
Chance: 0%
Yeah nah. Shuichi may have been the protagonist after all but not only does he have to deal with Makoto, Hajime and Monokuma, he has to deal with Kaede and how she's been marketed as the protag for V3 constantly. Smash hasn't been afraid to spoil **** in the past but Shuichi getting in would literally give away one of the best twists in the series which is also from one of the best cases in the series. I may be petty as I was spoiled on that twist long before I played V3 but I feel like spoiling that twist by adding Shuichi is an insult to the game as players would know what's up as soon as they see Shuichi's merely a side character when they first play. Sakurai adores gaming as a medium and I think he'd want to preserve a plot twist that only really works in the setting of video games more than adding a character.
Want: 100%
And it's a damn shame, Shuichi's great! As he starts off as a side character he gets to be more interesting than the blank slates that Makoto and Hajime are for most of the game. I adore V3, Case 3 and R slur usage aside, I'd love to beat the **** out of people while hearing **** like Psyche Taxi, Debate Scrum, Climax Re-Enactment V3, Rise and Shine Ursine and more. V3 probably in my top 5 visual novels and to see it get love in Smash would be an absolute treat. And hey, another LGBT character who isn't an avatar, sweet.
Danganronpa already is a more niche franchise that has not had any notable releases on the switch yet (at least according to my research). The ball is already not in Shuichi's court there. I would overall call a Danganronpa character unlikely due to this in general. But there are greater issues that Shuichi faces.
First, competition from within their own franchise. If we get a Danganronpa character, I would bet on Monokuma. The twisted headmaster is the main active antagonist (although not the mastermind itself) within the franchise. If you want to represent Danganronpa, I would go with Monokuma just due to that. Monomkuma is so core to how Danganronpa works I would say that it is a huge hurdle for Shuichi to overcome. Even outside of the bear of dispear, Shuichi does not have much of an Ultimate Hope of a chance. Hajime is the most popular main character because SDR2 has the overall best case outside of Akane and the DR3 Despair anime wastes them and if they go for a human character, chances are Hajimeme is gonna be the choice. Shuichi ain't no ultimate lucky student either, which further knocks him down the totem pole. Makoto is the protagonist of the first Danganronpa, and as a result might be chosen over Shuichi.
Now lets talk NDRV3.
Kaede may be the fakeout protagonist and it truly is Shuichi's game, but there's a reason she sticks out. She was the one in all the marketing. She was the one in all the promos. But this also adds a further wrinkle. Shuichi by his nature is a spoiler as the main protagonist. Now, Smash has been coy with spoilers before. Sheik is Zelda is the most infamous one, but beyond that, the spirits section has plenty of spoilers to it. I do not know for certain if they would end up saying **** it, lets spoil V3, but I would not put it against Sakurai choosing to respect the spoiler in character choice.
I mean, Shuichi is more likely than say, Komaru. But if you see my chance score, that is a low bar.
0% Want
Monokuma or bust for me. I like Shuichi and I like him as a character. But when I think of repping Danganronpa, I do not think of Shuichi. I think of Monokuma.
Then there are... other things...
Hoo boy, i have my issues with V3. For starters, I do not like getting gipped and not having a female protagonist in a mainline game. Sorry Shuichi, but I still find the fact that I did not get to do the main game as Kaede a bit of a sore spot. I may have liked your journey and growth, but it has a bitter aftertase due to what was promised. Then there is V3's writing quirks which are not the fault of Shuichi but are big flaws to him and hurt him in my eyes. Simply put, this is the worst ending in the Danganronpa franchise and one of the worst endings in fiction I have seen. The author has a metaphorical fit about how their creation grew out of their control and they want to burn it all down. I really hate when authors do this, even in works of fiction I love. One of my least favorite moments in Bojack Horseman, one of my favorite shows of all time, is when the show needs hammer in that using Bojack as an excuse for being awful and not growing as a person in Season 5 through the example in universe of Filbert. Here, I am having the creator vent that they hate how corporate and artificial a franchise I liked is. And that stings. Sorry Shuichi, but I do not want V3 solo content in Smash due to that selfish fact.
Firstly, I would say that Danganronpa, as a franchise, is in a similar position to Persona - NO WAIT; LET ME EXPLAIN. I don't mean to state that it's an insanely likely franchise or a dark horse nobody is thinking of – I see Joker as someone who beat the odds and not someone who was likely all along but overlooked - but just that it is similarly an M-rated game with little history on Nintendo platforms that Sakurai is a known fan of and is developed by a company with a long history of direct collaborations with Nintendo. This doesn't mean it'll get in by any means, but I think it could have a stars-align situation if Nintendo wanted to rep Spike Chunsoft, Visual Novels, Horror Games, or all three at once. It really just depends on how they are handling DLC.
It does also share a fanbase with Persona in general, so I think its odds may be increased if Joker sold particularly well as a character...
Secondly, let's chat Monokuma. Generally, games are represented by characters who reflect the experience of playing their game. We got Joker over Morgana or Jack Frost, Hero over Slime, Min Min over Biff, etc... Monokuma, while having potential moveset fodder, just doesn't do this. Danganronpa is an investigation game series; Monokuma is the judge and executioner. It's just not in line with current design philosophies to rep an investigation game with a NPC, especially when we know Ayumi was considered in Melee, which suggests he has thought about this type of moveset before. Now, if Phoenix Wright or Ayumi was already in the game, then I'd certainly humor him more, but at this moment in time? I don't think Monokuma is that likely.
I also often see people compare Monokuma to slasher villains and say “Well, wouldn’t Friday the 13th be best repped by Jason?”, but I think this kind of misrepresents two things. First, Monokuma isn’t the frequent killer in the series. He’s responsible for ~50% of the deaths in Danganronpa and even then the group, led by a protagonist, needs to convict the person themselves first. In this regard, it feels more accurate to me for him to be in charge of the Final Smash of a protagonist then it does for him to be doing his own thing. Secondly, Danganronpa games are much longer then slasher movies, so the characters have more development. It is a character-driven franchise people play for the stories. There is a reason why, upon completing the games, you unlock non-canon modes featuring non-canon peaceful character interactions, instead of non-canon executions. They expect you like (at least most of) the characters and they aren’t just fodder to be killed. I also, frankly, don't know if it'd be that fun to make a moveset that is effectively a bunch of easter eggs referencing the ways characters died tragically...
Okay, so, thirdly, let's get to Shuichi himself. He is the Ultimate Detective, so he could easily justify the investigation-focused moveset. He is very popular, topping V3 character polls. However, V3 is also the most divisive game in the series (ignoring UDG) and, while it's the newest, I don't think it's new enough to benefit from recency biases. It seems safer to go with Kyoko or Byakuya or Komaeda or Chiaki if they wanted to rep side-characters - and that's ignoring the fact there are protagonists right there for the taking. So, that's not great... Shuichi standalone gets a low chance, but I think his popularity + skillset could cause him to be an alt, so he gains a bit from that...
Okay, yeah, so he is actually the protagonist himself, but I think that kind of just cements his status as an alt. Last time we discussed Danganronpa spoilers, I argued that they would matter from a sort of moral "You shouldn't spoil the mystery for new people" PoV. This was in spite of how many crossovers already use the spoiler-y character we discussed last time. This time, I just don't think Spike would let them use Shuichi standalone. Kaede is still the protagonist in all marketing material and the most Shuichi gets is equal billing with her. I don't think he has much of a chance at all of being in by himself, but he could be with Kaede, but if he's with Kaede... then I think he's the alt. Just put in some explanation in the trailer where she drags him along into Smash Bros.
While I'm in this spoiler tag, I may as well give my overall DR rep rankings:
1) Makoto - OG protagonist factor does him well
2) Makoto/Hajime/Kaede/Shuichi - Just put in all the protagonists! They share moves anyway and DR height is nonsense in canon anyway. (5% chance)
3) Hajime - DR2 is probably the most popular game overall, but repping with the middle game feels weird
4) Kaede/Shuichi - V3 has its fans and maybe they want to rep the popular duo (2% chance)
5) Toko - Kind of a wild card, but she could technically do investigation things, she has a canon weapon to draw from for generic moves, and has a horror look to her if that was a major concern with character selection. Also she's a/the favourite of both the main writer and main artist.
6) Monokuma - I made my case against him already, but I do think he stands a chance, especially if we get a different VN rep
7) Kyoko/Byakuya/Junko/Komaeda/Chiaki/Keebo/Kokichi - here's our other popular characters who could be used if we have a Min Min situation
8) Everyone with an Ultimate Talent Related to Fighting - If we need them to be using their canon punchy/shooty/swordy powers I guess
9) Ibuki - Did you know Ibuki has been in more crossover collabs then Hajime? Wild!
10) Everyone Else.
5+2 = 7% for Shuichi being playable, though 0% as anything but an alt.
So, yeah. That's my feelings on this thing... DR rep in general gets a ~12% chance to me though.
Want: 100%. So, um, Shuichi (and Kaede) are two of my favourite characters in fiction. Not in video games, but in, like, all media. So, um, yeah. I'm happy with this if it happens. Also I just really want an investigation character and DR kind of naturally fits given how they already present evidence as "Truth Bullets" and 'Truth Swords" and such...
Predictions: 18% for SMT Content.
Noms: Moogle x 5 and Costume: Jill Stingray x 5. I, uh, assume that counted as a long enough write-up... Whoops...
