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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

NintenRob

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Abstain

Nominate content from currently unreleased game x5 (a little annoyed my noms yesterday didn't count
 

Ridrool64

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Crowbar king

Chance: 20%. Since post-Joker I no longer believe Nintendo appearances for the character matter (or at least as much as before, if the character has significant enough accolades) I think that helps with the first of Gordon's biggest weaknesses. The other two, no Nintendo presence of series and (if not none) minimal of the parent company may still deter Nintendo's selection. If I remember correctly, Sakurai spoke of this game a while back, and he did enjoy it, so if the pass was up to him I'd see it happen a lot more. Heavy is more requested, in fact TF2 as a whole is way more requested, but I think Gordon can claim seniority. Overall? He's got a shot. It's just not a very big one.

Want: 35%. This is, on one hand, a character who played a role in revolutionizing gaming. There's no way he doesn't deserve it. On the other, I'd prefer other Valve reps, from games I've actually played. Half-Life never really interested me enough into picking it up, and I prefer TF2 and Portal.

Red x 5. Dr. Coyle is either the runner up or frontrunner if we're getting no promotions, 34.60%. The other two are... the other two. While Lola Pop will earn a "relatively" middling score of 4.21%, I actually expect Springtron to get in the 0% range, that is 0.86%. And ARMS reps outside the roster (and maybe Biff, if they want to troll us) are... well, too reliant on other factors, 2.45%.

The big post of tiering will come later.
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
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Germany
Half Life Full Life Consequences

Chance: 0%
Guess I'm the downer on this subject, huh? I'll just not beat around the bush: I don't see it. The Half Life series has always been PC exclusive, with not a single one of its titles making it to consoles (unless Alyx did? I'm not sure). And while there's no denying that the series has been pretty influential to gaming as a whole, that alone doesn't really have to mean much in terms of chances for making it into Smash. And so what if Sakurai has praised Half Life 2? He talks about plenty of games and has played a whole lot of games. There's no fan demand, no good relations between Nintendo and Valve that we know of, and, most importantly, no fan support. He's not happening.

Want: Abstain.
I don't really have any interest in Half Life, but I also never really touched the series. I don't want to drag down this rating just because of that.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.

Predictions. . . oh boy.
Dr. Coyle - 24.61%
Lola Pop - 12.81%
Springtron -14.46%
New Arms rep - 2.33%
 

Lionfranky

Smash Lord
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Messages
1,019
Half Life 3 Confirmed out wait it kinda is crap
Chance:30%: Half-Life defined FPS's for a generation, has a beloved sequel that Sakurai loves, and has a midquel that gave a huge tease towards Half-Life 3 which means yes, it might actually come out. Yes, these games have never been on a Nintendo console, it they are important. PLus, the same applies to Master Chief and Monokuma, and they got good scores. I honestly think Gordon is very likely. Also, again, Sakurai loves Half-Life 2... He also loved Persona 5 and Fatal Fury/KOF.
Want:100%: I love the Half-Life games. They are some of my favorite games ever and I really want them to get more attention. Also, we can get Portal content with this guy, so that's sick. And Half-Life has a great OST, so hey,we got that too.
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5
Difference...
1) There is Master Chief skin in Minecraft Switch version.
2) Microsoft has been cooperating with Nintendo far more and longer than Valve ever did. MS released games on DS even before Minecraft.
3) MS also approached Nintendo for Banjo. They also played key role in releasing Ori and Cuphead on Switch.
 

Jomosensual

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Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Difference...
1) There is Master Chief skin in Minecraft Switch version.
2) Microsoft has been cooperating with Nintendo far more and longer than Valve ever did. MS released games on DS even before Minecraft.
3) MS also approached Nintendo for Banjo. They also played key role in releasing Ori and Cuphead on Switch.
Personally, if we're at the point where number 1 counts for having content on Nintendo then I think it's time to stop looking at that as a rule. I really don't think an alt costume in a game not related to a character at all would be the deciding factor between someone getting in Smash and not getting in.
 

Wunderwaft

Smash Master
Joined
Mar 21, 2019
Messages
3,463
Gordon Freeman

Chance: 40%
Pretty much everyone has already spoken of how big the Half Life franchise is to gaming as a whole and how impactful it is. Gordon being the first Valve character in Smash is a no brainer. So there's only one question, would Nintendo actually approach Valve? I believe it is possible.

There were rumors that there was a cancelled Half Life Tactics game that was supposed to be exclusive for the Switch. People took this rumor with a grain of salt as they should, but something interesting dropped from a Valve leak that may prove that this rumor has credibility to it. I'm speaking about the Valve source code leak that happened a couple of months ago that leaked the source code for Counter Strike and Team Fortress 2. In that leak there was a text leak that involved a Valve employee giving some interesting information regarding the company's inner working.

I will quote everything that I believe is important to this discussion:
[3:18:12 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: just got out of the nintendo meeting
[3:18:18 PM] Tyler McVicker: Cool
[3:18:33 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they offered 6 figures for an exclusive
[3:18:47 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: we're thinking about it
[3:41:09 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they're using a custom tegra class chip. seems to be on par with xbox one or slightly below
[3:41:13 PM] Tyler McVicker: So they gave Valve 10 units, and want an exclusive
[3:41:27 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: which is damn impressive for a portable
[3:41:43 PM] Tyler McVicker: Did they show off the dock and all that?
[3:42:11 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they we're very clear about not wanting to pressure us. we can just keep the kits and decide whether or not we want to do anything with them
[3:42:29 PM] Tyler McVicker: Wow they really want HL3
[3:42:45 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: if we do decide to, they would offer between 150k to 400k depending on the franchise
[3:42:56 PM] Tyler McVicker: Haha, they actually do want HL
[3:43:05 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: they specifically asked for an exclusive HL spinoff
[10/25/2016 9:07:24 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: What are your thoughts on a Half-Life realtime strategy game during the seven hour war? We're thinking there's a lot of potential for touch and IR controls and we can explore a mostly untold part of the timeline.
[10/25/2016 9:08:11 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: We're not sure how we would make that work, considering the humans loose but I'm sure we can figure something out
The game supposedly got cancelled due to Valve being wary of the potential backlash that their next installment would be an exclusive on another console, and because most of the development went to Alyx during this time:
[10/25/2016 9:20:41 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: but do we want to nuke our reputation and good will from the community for 300k and 80% of sales?

[10/25/2016 9:20:56 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: because that's their offer for something canon in the HL universe

[10/25/2016 9:21:07 PM] Tyler McVicker: But you wouldn't be doing that if you communicate what the hell is going on

[10/25/2016 9:21:45 PM] Tyler McVicker: Even in somewhat broad terms, don't get into the specifcs about each version of the project, but instead explain how Valve works, make parallels to TF2 and HL2, and people will understand

[10/25/2016 9:22:03 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: "look, this game wouldn't exist because of funding by [company x]" has never in the history of gaming been a successfull attempt at damage control

[10/25/2016 9:22:17 PM] Tyler McVicker: The problem Valve is in, is that people think that Valve is money-grubbing, and that you won't release the game because you don't care anymore.

[10/25/2016 9:22:27 PM] Tyler McVicker: Most people think Valve doesn't care anymore.

[10/25/2016 9:22:34 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: just look at how mad people get every time there's an oculus funded exclusive. We're trying to stay out of these things for good reasons

[10/25/2016 9:22:35 PM] Tyler McVicker: And that all you want to do is VR and Paid Sprays.

[10/25/2016 9:23:07 PM] Tyler McVicker: Well, Valve really hasn't been in game releaseing for a few years, and the market has changed.

[10/25/2016 9:23:36 PM] Tyler McVicker: If you try to relase anything, there will be drama, and VAlve has already had it's drama over the last few years.

[10/25/2016 9:23:46 PM] Cephalon Cephalon: And then we're finally announcing the next installment in the Half-Life franchise - all eyes are on our reveal stream and then - the trailer


A ****ING NX GAME


Now does this confirm a Valve character in Smash? No it doesn't, but it answers the question of "Why would Nintendo approach Valve and include them in Smash?". The answer is that they already approached them beforehand for an exclusive because they see the importance and value of their IPs and their company. Tactics may have been cancelled due to fear of fan backlash and full development going to Alyx, but this still shows that Nintendo does see the importance of Half Life as a franchise.


Want: 100%
Gordon Freeman is like one of my top 5 most wanted characters and his franchise is easily one of my favorites. Half Life has been important to me and I've enjoyed all of their games, from the first game to Alyx. Gordon with the gravity gun alone would be one of the most interesting additions to Smash.


Nomination: Kratos x5
 
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D

Deleted member

Guest
he Half Life series has always been PC exclusive, with not a single one of its titles making it to consoles (unless Alyx did? I'm not sure).
Half Life 2 and Episodes 1 & 2 was on Xbox 360 and PS3 through The Orange Box bundle (which also included TF2 and Portal), so Half Life has been on a console before.
----------------
Rise and Shine, Mr. Freeman, Rise and Shine...

Chance: 1%


There's no doubt that Valve is the mega-giant of the PC gaming industry thanks to Steam, and there's also no doubt Half Life is 1 of their biggest IPs of all time. Half-Life 1 was the first game Valve ever worked on, and since then, Half-Life has always been the first franchise with a game releasing on their newest engines (Half-Life 2 with Source and Half-Life: Alyx with Source 2). Without Half-Life, games like Counter-Strike, Team Fortress, and Garry's Mod wouldn't have existed since they all started off as Half-Life mods. There is also an arcade game called Half-Life: Survivor that was only available in Japan, so I could imagine the series being pretty familiar to the Japanese audiences despite the 13 year absence before HL:A. Speaking of, Half-Life is more relevant than it was during that absence thanks to Alyx, so recency looks to be in their favor.

However, there's no signs of Nintendo wanting to expand on the PC Market at all. Even with that rumor about Nintendo and Valve in discussions over a new project awhile back, I don't see a Valve character being added to Smash unless it meant Nintendo were to branch out to that market (which in a way, I'm saying Mobile Games have a better chance of being in Smash than PC games right now). Then, we also have to look at the games themselves, most specifically Half-Life 2. The combat in Half-Life is rather simplistic when compared to the likes of other FPS games like DOOM or Halo. While Sakurai has stated that the lack of a moveset doesn't dissuade him from choosing a character, the simplicity of Half-Life's combat is probably not ideal for Smash due in part to how Half-Life is designed. 1 of the biggest appeals of HL2 was the physics-based Source engine, and while Sakurai can have his way on making mechanics work, you have to wonder how possible it would be to translate the physics of the Source engine to whatever engine the devs are using for Ultimate. It could be easy; it could be difficult; it might not even be a thing at all. Due to these reasons, I don't see Half-Life being likelier than 1%.

Want: 40%

So I'm not exactly wanting Gordon in Smash, but I can say that I play a lot of Gmod to be fine with a potential Smash inclusion. In fact, It's kinda wild how this Online Forum probably has people who don't know what Half-Life is unironically. It'd be something different for sure which is why Gordon's at 40% rather than anything lower. My 1 request with this would be to have a "pick up that can" reference in either the trailer or in Ultimate itself.
----------------
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 21%
Lola Pop Goes the Weasel - 2%
Springtron - 0.5%
New Arms Rep - 7%
----------------
Noms:
Lu Bu x3
Jacket Mii Costume (Hotline Miami) x2
 

3DSNinja

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Oct 30, 2018
Messages
1,390
Difference...
1) There is Master Chief skin in Minecraft Switch version.
2) Microsoft has been cooperating with Nintendo far more and longer than Valve ever did. MS released games on DS even before Minecraft.
3) MS also approached Nintendo for Banjo. They also played key role in releasing Ori and Cuphead on Switch.
I a!so said Monokuma.
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
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I a!so said Monokuma.
I mean, if we're counting skins then...
1) Monokuma (and a bunch of other DR characters) appear as crossover content in the Switch version of Crypt of the Necrodancer.
2) Spike Chunsoft does all the Pokémon Mystery Dungeon games, including the recent Switch remake of the first game, for Nintendo.
3) They've also just made a lot of Nintendo games, even if DR itself isn't on Switch.

The point being, most third-parties people want that "aren't connected to Nintendo" are from companies that are very connected to Nintendo (like how it was with Cloud and Joker). Valve just... isn't.
 

DaUsername

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Baldi
0.48% Chance - 3.14% Want
Winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 with a near-exact 0.50%. That means ten extra noms for you!
Baldi deservedly earns the spot of the least wanted character, but the least likely spot eludes him. But I have to mention that without a pair of... outlying scores, Baldi would have a 0.80% want and a perfect 0 for chance - which is just more fitting in my humble opinion.
I thought Sari said that BowserKing's scores wouldn't count because it was obvious he didn't know what he was talking about.
 

Sari

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Day over.

It is now time for our fifth and final ARMS rating day.

Day 1:
  • Spring Man
  • Ribbon Girl
  • Ninjara
(Link to this already completed day)

Day 2:
  • Min Min
  • Master Mummy
  • Mechanica
(Link to this already completed day)

Day 3:
  • Twintelle
  • Byte & Barq
  • Kid Cobra
(Link to this already completed day)

Day 4:
  • Helix
  • Max Brass
  • Misango
  • Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts
(Link to this already completed day)

Day 5:
  • Dr. Coyle
  • Lola Pop
  • Springton
  • Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)

Day 5


So for today, rate the following 3 characters + 1 concept:
  • Dr. Coyle
  • Lola Pop
  • Springtron
  • Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)
    • Pretty self-explanatory: an ARMS character that is NOT one of the 15 playable ARMS characters that we've already rated. Whether its a new character for the original game or a promotional pick for an ARMS sequel, this potential newcomer would be a new face to literally everyone.
Predict Papyrus from Undertale.

Day will end Wednesday night EST.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get in the mood for today's characters:

 

Perkilator

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Abstaining on Dr. Coyle, Lola Pop and Springtron.

Either ARMS 2 or LEGS
Chance: 0%

There's a reason why we were shown the original 15. The only active time we saw something from a game that wasn't even announced yet was the Poltergust G-00 in Simon's trailer. And the game THAT came from was announced a month later.

Want: 0%
If there's one thing that grinds my gears, it's when people request characters before their game is even released yet. Say what you will about Byleth being planned from before their game released, but AT LEAST we were all familiar with Three Houses at the time of their reveal.

Papyrus: 0%

Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×8
Sakura Shinguji ×7
 

IronWarrior94

Smash Journeyman
Joined
May 30, 2018
Messages
299
Dr. Coyle:
Chance- 20%. Would really like her but I'm not sure if they'll want to Smash rep a whole new IP with the villain first. Based on what I've heard, the most likely choices are probably Springman, Ribbon girl, Min-Min, and Max Brass.

Want- 95%. Even though I'm unfamiliar with ARMS I like her design and the fact that she's a villain, So yeah another femme fatale that looks cool is the biggest reason I want her to be the ARMS rep.

Lola Pop:
Chance- 30%. Again not familiar with ARMS, so I'm only rating her based on the expectations of ARMS fans.

Want- 50%. A fun design and another female rep. Still, I'd prefer Dr. Coyle due to being a villain.

Springtron:
Chance- 30%. As I understand it he's like an evil robotic version of main protag Springman, similar to Metal Sonic I'm guessing. Tbh he sounds more like an alt or an echo fighter.

Want- 40%. Eh, I think he'll serve as an alt or echo to Springman if he gets in the game.


Papyrus: 5% prediction
 
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NintenRob

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Lola Pop
A lot of what I said about Misnago applies here.
She has nothing to really set her above the other characters to justify her being playable.
She has a pretty cool design though and was pretty fit to play though.
But overall though, I just don't she should be playable unless it's part of some insane 8in1
Chance 0%
Want 2%

Springtron
Getting Springtron before Spring Man would be absolutely dumb.
Even as an alt, I don't really see it.
If they go for another ARMS character, I feel it would be redundant to just go Metal Spring Man.
Maybe as 8in1, But we still don't even have Dry Bowser, so it doesn't look good.
Double 0

Dr Coyle
Now here's an interesting character to discuss, because she actually has a reason to playable before others.
As the final dlc character, Dr Coyle serves as the villain of ARMS, and is essential to the games lore.
She also has a very unique playstyle, but that could honestly work against, I feel the first arms character should be more vanilla than Coyle. And turning invisible wouldn't work as well in Smash.
In the end, she still has to compete with the likes of Spring Man and Max Brass. I just struggle to see her getting in before at least one of them.
Chance 6%
Want 50%

New Character.
I really don't think this will happen, nor do I want it.
When announcing the ARMS character, they showed all 15 characters from the original game.
It would be so dumb to be like "hey, these characters you love? None of them are in. Here's someone you've never heard of"
This is DLC, we still have to pay this character and this character specifically.
Double 0

I'm also gonna change my noms, it might be a controversial one, but perhaps an important one
Nominate concept: a character who is a person of Colour as dlc x10
 
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Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Dr Coyle

Chance 25 - There's a few hang ups here. First, she's the villain of the series and IDK if they'd go for a villain first. She also apparently doesn't walk but floats around the map. That feels a little odd to put into Smash, but hey, they did say that there was a new concept or something like that coming with the character so maybe that's the deal here. Overall not impossible but I also don't get the feeling DC is that popular? Could be wrong on that. Think she's towards the back end of the darkhorses for me

Want 50 - Don't really mind it either way here. She'd be unique for sure but there's a few other characters I'd rather have. Not the worst pick from the ARMS roster though


Springtron

Chance 6 - This is the least likely choice in my opinion. Everything Springtron does is something that Springman does and Springman is more popular. Only real path I see for him is if Nintendo wants Springman but is really against upgrading ATs. I think it's more likely we see him as an AT replacement for Springman than actually being playable in the game. Going with a 6 percent because he was still on the graphic and that means he has a shot and 6 percent is roughly 1/15.

Want 40 - I guess I wouldn't hate it but I wouldn't be too hyped. Also the people ****ting on Springtron because he deconfirmed their AT faves from getting upgraded would be pretty annoying. I don't mind the character though but have a tough time seeing him be the pick.


Lola Pop

Chance 6 - Not seeing any reason why she would be it. Don't think she's very popular. Feels like one of the bottom tier characters in the game as far as interest goes from both fans and Nintendo.

Want 10 - Don't think I've ever played as her in the game. Not a fan of the design really. Probably one of the last characters I'd want in the game.


ARMS 2/Unplayable character
Chance 40 - So I'm gonna go a little high here. If I was just rating an ARMS 2 rep I'd say no, that's not happening and give it a 0 percent. I don't think we're getting a game revealed via a Smash reveal and it seems like someone from the graphic they showed in the mini direct is going to be the ARMS rep. The thing is though, there weren't 15 characters on the graphic. There were 16. Let's take a look at the graphic again
ARMS.png

See him? That's right, I'm talking about Biff. Chilling out in the top left corner there like nothings going on. But, why is he there? He doesn't really need to be and I doubt anyone would have objected if he wasn't there and many wouldn't have even noticed. But he's there. It feels like he's hiding in plain sight and logically, since he's on the graphic I would assume it means he could have a shot just like anyone else on the graphic. We talk about Sakurai hinting at future characters a lot and most of it is people just reading way to far into things or people jumping to conclusions because they want to believe their favorites are in the game with little to nothing behind it. But this is different because we actually have tangible evidence. Biff is on the graphic. That's far more indisputable than chair theory, daisy theory, google theory, and whatever else we had flying around in the last year of DLC.

Ok, but could it actually be Biff? Well yeah, I think it really could be. Like i said above, I don't think they're debuting a character and announcing a new game at the same time. We've never had Smash do that before and I don't think that's going to happen now. But Biff isn't a new character. He's in the first ARMS game, but just as the MC/Ref/whatever else he does. The way their going about things with the reveal makes perfect sense if it's him too. If Biff is the playable character it doesn't make sense to show off a trailer on a direct and have people get hyped up just to reveal the rep is an NPC. Putting a graphic out like this and hiding him in the corner is a good bit of bait and switch and feels like a solid swerve that could actually happen.

For the record I don't think the playable rep is Biff and I don't think we get an ARMS 2 game reveal. I think it's possible that we do get an ARMS 2 reveal later this year and Biff is playable in the game though with this reveal setting the stage.

Want 60 - Honestly, I would be really hyped about my Biff theory coming true. My want for a ARMS 2 rep is probably about 15 because I can't realyl get hyped over a character I don't know yet. But for Biff and the concept I go 60 because I think it would be a really good swerve. Sure, some people will get mad and accuse Nintendo of lying, but they're not lying. The character was on the graphic. The character is a charater in ARMS. It's just not someone expected. And really that's kinda awesome.


Predictions
Papyrus - 1%

Noms:
Stretchers x5
Jin x5
 
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DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,375
Abstaining on the 3 characters as I'm tired of rating these ARMS characters and by now I've stated everything I've wanted to say about these characters, aside from Dr. Coyle who I think is likely because of her popularity and her notable role in the game.


New ARMS character

Chance: 1%

This was one of my initial theories until I realized: They straight up showed the roster of ARMS 1 and they said to guess which one of these characters will be chosen. I have no reason to believe that they would choose somebody like from ARMS 2 if the game is indeed in development. Never say never I always say, but this would not make any sense as, again, they said the character is going to be chosen from the 15 roster. We also have no precedence for a character to be revealed before their own game is known.

Want: 1%

Let the characters stand on their own before introducing them into Smash. This is a bad idea all around. Even if the ARMS 2 character is really cool and creative, it would feel wrong for the spot to not go to a ARMS 1 rep. Personally, I have been taking the time to do research and grow some kind of fondness to these characters, including playing the demo several times. Psyching myself up for a ARMS character only to receive a character I have no time to get hyped for would be disappointing. There are great characters in ARMS 1 and there is the chance for a character to break the assist trophy and/or spirit rule. I'm excited for that potential and for any other character that isn't represented yet, not for a character used mainly to shill.

Prediction: Papyrus - 6%

Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x40
Minus as well as use up my extra noms now so I can get to nominating other characters I have planned.
 

DaUsername

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The Free Man
Chance: About the same as the chance of us actually getting Half-Life 3 (0.1%)
It's already pretty hard for a western third party to get into Smash. I don't expect one that's never even appeared on a Nintendo console to stand a chance. Actually, I don't think Nintendo and Valve have ever really interacted before. It would be weird for Nintendo to call them up and say "Hey, wanna playable character in Smash?" Gordon isn't even the most demanded character for Smash, as there's some Heavy Weapons Guy cult that's been growing recently.
Want: 63.33%
Gordon is up there in the list of "characters I want, but know will never happen". Mainly because of how co the Gravity Gun is.

Coyle prediction: 15%
Lola prediction: 12%
Tron prediction: 20%
ARMS 2 prediction: 5%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x5
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Saving the best for last

Tesla

Chance: 20%
I think if Spirits are out of the equation, she's the one to beat. We've never had a villain before a main character/mascot, but Spirits disconfirming means the main characters are off the table, so we gotta look at the next best thing. And that is Dr. Coyle. The main villain of the game, with the most narrative and lore importance, and the most connections to the other characters. There's no doubt that Dr. Coyle is one of, if not the single most important character in ARMS. She's gimmicky, sure, but not distractingly so, and her design makes ARMS' concept clear while also conveying her villain status.

I've seen many say that Max Brass is more likely than her, and... Why? Max Brass is an important character, no doubt, but why pick the rest when you can pick the best? What I'm saying is, being second most important means nothing when the most important is available. Max lost his status as the final boss and is only slightly less gimmicky and weird. I don't see him having any advantages.

Want: 100%
One of my favorite characters in the game. She has a super cool design, her personality is great and she single-handedly makes ARMS lore twice as interesting. I want Spring Man first because he's the best man for the job. But I'll be campaigning for a second ARMS rep immediately after, and the best candidate for that is Dr. Coyle. And, if by some fluke she's the one chosen, I'll welcome her with open arms.

The entire circus

Chance: 7%
Not great. I've seen a lot of love for her, but I don't think she's one of the most popular in the game. And given how she lacks prominence otherwise, she'd really need that to get in Smash. I'm giving her that score because given her proportions she could be an alt, if they eschewed her bouncing shield thing.

Want: 100%
Another one of my favorite characters, hell, maybe the one I like the most. This is a pretty good day for me. Her design is fun, creative, colorful and different, caught my eye from the moment she was revealed. Her arms and her gimmick are fun, easy to use but strategic. I just really enjoy Lola in ARMS, and I would enjoy her in Smash as well.

Half robot, half man, all clone

Chance: 10%
Springtron will only get in Smash as an alt of Spring Man. There's no other avenue for him. Him getting in solo would require everyone in the Smash team to be absolute morons - it's one thing to not want to make an AT playable because of all the dumb reasons people have said, but it's another one to choose a character that's literally copied from the AT to fulfill an idiotic self-imposed technicism. I don't believe the entire Smash team to be absolute morons.

Want: 80%
As an alt? Sure, wouldn't mind him. His design is alright, even if I'm not in love with him in ARMS because of how redundant he feels.

"Introducing the new Toe-Cons, for use with the new game LEGS"

Double zeroes
They said a character from the game ARMS will be getting into Smash. That means they already told us it wouldn't be from a hypothetical sequel. Even if they wanted a character from a sequel, it's not like the potential picks from the first one are going anywhere. Why choose a character that can only rep ARMS 2 when you can get one that reps both games? It's like wanting a Paper Mario character and choosing King Olly.

And of course, I don't want characters I don't know. I want characters I'm familiar with and have emotional attachment to. Shouldn't be that hard to understand.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x10
Papyrus prediction: 2.83%

And yes, today you all get ten noms NintenRob NintenRob
 

RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,210
Location
Georgia
Dr. Coyle
Chance: 25%
There’s little in her favor. She only recently became a popular choice. She’s not a Spirit, but I believe Nintendo had much bigger priorities that were much more significant to business. The one benefit of choosing her I will admit is that she has more mechanics than the rest of the cast, making it easier to fill out a Smash moveset without many liberties needing to be taken.
Want: 5%
She really distracts from the overall simple theme of ARMS. I don’t think she’d be the best representation of the game. I can at least place her a bit higher than Mechania because she’s easier to envision as a fighter.

Lola Pop
Chance: 1%
It the same story every day. A side character with very little in her favor. She doesn’t have a PNG in the game, but I find it more likely Nintendo was taking more significant factors into consideration when they picked the DLC fighters.
Want: 100%
Lola should have been the main character of ARMS. A clown being the star of a wacky fighting game about stretchy, elongated, arms would have been genius, it would have set the tone perfectly. Maybe I just really like her because I immediately associated the game with Lanky Kong and she ended up being Lanky Kong incarnate. She’s a really good representation of the game. What a missed opportunity.

Springtron
Chance: 0%
Want: 0%
Would be completely backwards. Why would this happen in any situation? He doesn’t have anything in his favor.
This is basically Metal Mario being made playable before Mario. I do not care about this character. He is a literal clone of the main protagonist.

A New ARMS Rep
Chance: 0%
I don't think this could happen because the reveal itself was self-explanatory. There's nothing suggesting there's even going to be an ARMS 2. It would be completely out of nowhere, and it's not something I think Nintendo would do after showing the whole ARMS cast.
Want: 0%
I don't know who this character who doesn't exist is, so I have no desire to see them in Smash. I do end up liking some characters I don't have a personal attachment to, but in those cases they've at least existed before being in Smash. I already barely have much interest in most of the cast, so I doubt they could introduce a new character I'd be into.

Nomination: Zelda (BotW sequel) x10
 
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amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
For the final time, I am making everything add up and therefore give lower odds then most...

Dr Coyle

Chance: 6%. Like with Max Brass, I think she'd be a frontrunner if both spirits and ATs disconfirm. That said, I don't think that's true, so her odds are relatively-low for me...

I also feel like Max Brass slightly edges her out, assuming they could make a heavy character with ARMS-length reach balanced. Coyle is important villain to the story of ARMS, but Max Brass is still the one who turns up as the final boss on most runs. He also was the only villain on the roster for most of the post-launch period, so people who dropped the game before the updates stopped may have never met Coyle. Being the puppetmaster from the shadows doesn't exactly make you the most recognizable character...

Want: 90%. ...which is a shame, as I love her. Her story is great and she's generally just a badass. I don't know how they would handle her floating, but it'd be fun to see them try!

Lola Pop

Chance: 2%. She gets more then 1% as I don't think her gimmick is too obstructive to make her bad representation of ARMS, but I don't think she has very good odds. Her reveal did get more attention then some other DLC characters - as her trailer's views on YouTube reflects - but it's not like it was a huge output of support insomuch as it was people making memes about clowns.

Want: 99%. She's one of my favourite characters for sure and is just a lot of fun to play as. And, look, if we're getting someone random and not-actually-important-to-ARMS-lore, then Lola would be hilarious. I'm not usually one to give high want scores just because I'd be laughing, but... Lola's a clown. It's like when Incineroar, a wrestling heel, got everyone mad at him. It's too perfect!

Springtron

Chance: 0%. I guess I should maybe give him an 18, as that's what I gave Spring Man and I think there is a 99% chance Spring Man would have him as an alt, but I've put a lot of work in making all my scores equal 100 and didn't factor in alts for anyone else.... So, sorry Springtron, you aren't getting in as your own unique character.

Want: Abstain. I'm not desperate for more characters in Smash that amount to "What if other character was evil," but I do like Springtron's backstory... So... Eh.

ARMS 2 Rep

Chance: 0%. Sakurai's misdirection, which is a rare occurrence in of itself, usually lasts 2 minutes, not 3 months. I don't see them doing this.

Want: 0.5%. I would be mostly sad, as I want characters I already know, but at least it'd confirm an ARMS 2. I would enjoy an ARMS 2.

20 - Min Min
18 - Spring Man
15 - Twintelle
10 - Ribbon Girl
8 - Max Brass
7 - Ninjara
6 - Dr Coyle
5 - Helix
4 - Kid Cobra
2 - Lola Pop
2 - Mechanica
1 - Master Mummy
1 - Byte and Barq
1 - Misango
0 - Springtron
= 100% chance of an ARMS character!

I do think I overrated Helix and especially Kid Cobra in retrospect. I'd probably take 2 of Cobra's points and give them to Coyle, but I'm happy enough with how it worked out.

Nominations: Moogle x 25! Moogles are on parade today...
Papyrus: 1.5%
 

IronWarrior94

Smash Journeyman
Joined
May 30, 2018
Messages
299
Seeing the bit about Dr. Coyle "floating" being a major outlier, is different from how Dark Samus floats in this game?
 

plague126

Smash Cadet
Joined
Jan 11, 2020
Messages
35
Seeing the bit about Dr. Coyle "floating" being a major outlier, is different from how Dark Samus floats in this game?
It’s different from that yes. The quirk is that (and correct me if im wrong) when jumping in ARMS Dr Coyle floats and is still considered grounded.
 
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Proceleon

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Oct 22, 2015
Messages
463
Location
Yoshi's Island
NNID
Proceleon
3DS FC
2423-2553-2839
Switch FC
SW-6226-7752-8603
Dr. Coyle
Chance: 25%
A lot of things point in her favour, mostly that the obvious choices are taken already, but also that her character could quite easily use other characters' Arms without feeling out of character, plus her invisibility wouldn't take away from her playstyle at all and her floating could just result in her having a good air movement. No need to make her pull a Peach the whole time, just make her floaty. Her inclusion could get people playing the game again who dropped off before her inclusion, so she even works as a promotional pick. Lore-wise she's probably the most important character outside Max Brass himself, being responsible for Springtron, Helix and Hedlok.
Want: 75%
Having read up on her, I can safely say she's higher up on my wants. Even though I'd probably appreciate some of the more popular characters, they're already used.

Lola Pop
Chance: 5%
I think she's somewhat popular, but given that her inclusion was how Nintendo found out a lot of westerners were afraid of clowns, I don't think they'd take the risk with her.
Want: 15%
She a relatively entertaining character. but she's also kinda meh. I put her alongside Misango as "that other DLC character".

Springtron
Chance: 0%
Without Spring Man, he's basically nothing.
Want: 0%
If he does get in, the whole community will complain that Spring Man wasn't in instead, and we REALLY don't need Waluigi 2.0.

A New ARMS Rep
Chance: 0%
Considering they showed the first game's roster, I doubt they'd pull this. I'd be a huge risk and frankly, ARMS ain't no Fire Emblem, at least that one has franchise security... that's probably the one time I'll defend Fire Emblem.
Want: 1%
An odd bit of me wants this just so people are surprised, but then I know they'd use the fact they didn't exist yet to fruitlessly hope for Spirits again, so no thank you, just kill off Spirits once and for all and we can all move on.
 

Glaciacott

Smash Lord
Joined
Aug 4, 2013
Messages
1,628
Location
Mintendo Noodle House
Springtron
Chance 0%
To me he's like Dark Pit: a rather cool character that was done fairly well, but at the end of the day just another shadow/robot version of another character. I would say he only has the slightest possibility of making it in, and it would be super weird and outright wrong to see him playable while Spring Man is an AT. The other thing against him is that the individual he was built by has more to her credits, and more chances in turn

Want 49%
Outside of it being really weird I wouldn't mind too much. I think it would still be objectively stupid, but he's far from being a character I dislike. And oh man, this is a character that would make a ton of people salty.

Lola Pop
Chance 0%
Has no lore significance and her popularity leaves much to be desired. However, I think she's in the realm of Helix as out there picks that would sucker punch the fans and wind up being liked as a result, and there's tons of potential.

Want 99%
The only reason it's not 100% is because Min Min is my favorite. Lola was one of my two secondaries and was a favorite of mine since she got announced. I love her design, her music, her stage, her arms and her mechanics. Her being in Smash would be a delightful surprise.

Dr. Coyle
Chance 6%
Easily one of the more likely characters given how big she is to the world of Arms. It's weird to me how fans of spirit/AT rules latched so hard onto Max Brass when Dr. Coyle came in at full force the second she was released and proved to be not only an excellent antagonist, but the main individual behind pretty much everything in Arms... the weapons, the marks, the end boss Hedlock, and three of the fighters (Helix, Springtron, Master Mummy).
Not only that but she has an excellent design that screams personality and her being the creator of all these things can easily excuse a very diverse moveset. The main thing against her is not really representing the traditional Arms play-style since instead she would just float all over and randomly go invisible or randomly have a third arm. It would be a bit much to incorporate in Arms' first playable character.

If Arms gets more characters in the future and continues living as a franchise, she should stand with DJ Octavio (and Hades!) as Nintendo villains that should see some representation eventually. Assuming she doesn't just make it in now.

Want 99%
My other secondary, who only lacks in playtime compared to Lola and Min Min by virtue of having come out later. I love this character's design and she reeks of cool and badass all over. Once more, not 100% because Min Min for the win win, but if she gets the spot I will not be short of happiness and hype. I actually cannot decide who I like more between her and Lola Pop, because they're both just excellent.

Arms 2
Chance 0%
They showed us 16 characters, and I fully believe it's one of those (or two if Sakurai is insane and gives us an echo out of nowhere). I do think that if an Arms 2 exist that we might see the playable rep sporting a new design based on that second game (Champion Min Min, please), but that character will most definitely be one of the OG Arms reps

Want 0%
It would be a lame move to get fans of these characters enthused only to later go "nevermind, he's some random person you've never heard about. That will be $6 please."
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,436
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Abstaining completely on Dr. Coyle.

-----

Lola Pop

Chance: 1%
Doesn't seem as popular as most of the other characters and her being a post base game addition might mean that she'd have less priority than them as well. At this point I'm fully expecting the ARMS rep to be one of the spirits currently in Ultimate right now (specifically either Spring Man or Min Min) which doesn't bode well for her chances.

Want: 90%
I really like her colorful design and as well as her ability of being able to inflate herself. She'd be fun to use in Smash plus we are long overdue for a clown-type character.

-----

Springtron

Chance: 5%
If they actually go through with the whole characters as alts thing then Springtron could happen if Spring Man is used as the base. That's probably not too likely however and chances are if Spring Man does get in, he'll just have a color palette that is based on Springtron as opposed to an actual character swap.

Want: Abstain
Don't know much about them so I'll abstain. I probably wouldn't want them as the single ARMS rep though and would prefer if they were represented through an alt color/costume.

-----

Concept: Nintendo chooses to not listen to the fans and makes the ARMS rep a promotional shoe-in

Chance: 0.1%
The fact that they showed the entire original ARMS roster during the reveal trailer really makes me doubt that this will happen. But then again we've seen promotional picks happen in the past (albeit mostly FE characters) and the ARMS rep was supposedly a production request, so I'll give it a very small chance of actually happening.

Want: 0%
Imagine a student election where 15 students work their hardest to win everyone's support... and then the winner ends up being the kid who did nothing but his parents are in cahoots with the school council. This is literally the equivalent of that scenario. ARMS has 15 playable characters that each have their own fans: why add some new promotional pick when you can please the fans of those established characters? Also there's the fact that we literally haven't seen what the potential character looks like so it'd be a new level of stupid to support a character that doesn't even exist (even though people still continue to do this with potential Pokemon reps all the time).

-----

Papyrus chance prediction: 3.00%

Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x10 (gonna decide what to do with my extra noms later)
 
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DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,219
Gonna abstain since I don't have energy for a full writeup. But I do have a few thoughts on Coyle. She has a lot of similarities to Max Brass chance-wise, being extremely important to the lore of ARMS and being a heavily showcased DLC character. That said, she doesn't have the same level of prominence that Max Brass does, and unlike him, she'd have a lot of gimmicks to incorporate, and for a first ARMS rep that may be a bit much.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Papyrus - 0.54%
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Abstain. Like the previous days, I don't have anything to say about these characters and I don't care who the rep is.

Noms: Alex Mason x5, Rocket League rep times 5
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
The big long list was SUPPOSED to return, but right now we have ratings. Also the glitch where when I try to move the cursor for writing it highlights things automatically is back in effect again. So that's not nice, it makes it nearly impossible for me to accurately edit the information.

Three months of false hope for first parties, Round 2

Chance (Dr. Coyle): 35%. Basically everything that applies to Max Brass applies to Coyle as well. She's definitely the standout among the additional cast, and either plays second only to him or outranks him as our leading candidate for the non-Spirits. Now whether or not she has a chance against the Spirit Crew... that, on the other hand, is a much tougher call.

Want (Dr. Coyle): 40%. Basically everything that applies to Max Brass, as before, applies to Coyle as well. Don't care about the rep per se, technically benefit, yada yada.

Abstaining on Lola Pop, because she's just a copy paste of the previous few days. Absolutely nothing unique about her to say.

Wouldn't it be funny if we put in a robot version of the guy who's an Assist Trophy for the luls?

Chance (Springtron): Up to this point, I have never ever given an ARMS rep a 0%. But now, Springtron will get the first 0% in chance. There is simply no reason for them to go for him unless they basically wanted Spring Man and found promoting Assist Trophies to be the worst thing since the Virtual Boy.

Want (Springtron): 0%. Putting him in is basically a worst case scenario if he is the rep. Not only is he the single hardest confirmation AT's, and arguably Spirits are out of the running for good, he's the biggest slap in the face to anybody who was hoping for Spring Man to make it in. I wouldn't want an ARMS rep who would have a reputation on par with Byleth for being the bearer of bad news.

Corrin 2: It's not Fire Emblem so is it okay guys?

Chance (new face): Abstaining here. While I don't think it's outright impossible, the ability to rate this is far too reliant on the possibility of several factors. One, this character exists. Two, if they're from ARMS 2, that game exists. Three, Sakurai has been given a chance to use this character behind closed doors. Four, Sakurai has enjoyed this character and chosen them, or Nintendo decided to pick this character.

All of these conditions lined up for Byleth, and they could here, but we cannot quantify if they would occur again. Thus I think this is something impossible to objectively determine.

Want: 0%. This is peak shill pick fearmongering right here. Literally a worldwide Corrin would turn the entire Smash community against itself. Spirits and AT's are likely busted, the character wasn't even around for the teaser making it feel like a ripoff for dedicated ARMS fans, and there'd be no chance of any first impression. This is peak cynicism when it comes to Smash picks.

While I want neither of Springtron nor an ARMS non-rep, given the choice I'd at least take Springtron over the misleading advertising.

Frisk x 15. Let's follow up Undertale with more Undertale, like previously. Speaking of Undertale, Papyrus isn't Frisk and is basically spirit board fodder, regardless of when Undertale Spirits become a thing (which could be tomorrow, or from my perspective, today) in a post-Sans Mii Smash timeline. 5.60%
 
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Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
I can finally that file keeping my scores totalling 100%, yay! But I'm tired so I won't be able to write too much.

-
Dr. Coyle

Chance: 8%
As the main antagonist, she's higher in priority than most. But being a main antagonist alone isn't worth much. Luckily, she's also garnered some support (especially recently) and had always been pretty well received, which certainly gives her an edge. However, her abilities are a bit too outside the norm. She's the only one to levitate and is always considered grounded, jumping merely letting her gain height. Then she has a 3rd ARM. Finally, she can turn invisible. Those abilities are all twists on the default formula, making her an ill fit for a first rep despite her assets imo. But my opinion doesn't mean much in the end, so she does have some chance.

Chance: 2%
Her design is nice, the gimmicks in smash I wouldn't be too confident about though. 3rd ARM would merely be the visual for one attack (or more), invisibility would be pretty gimmicky and levitation simply wouldn't work (imagine her being able to shield in mid-air, lacking aerials and being essentially a Belmont with Peach's float). I'd rather have a character that would actually work well without having to stretch the concept - pun intended.

-
Lola Pop

Chance: 1%
I don't feel like writing much for her. Same as missingno and his ilk, she's not popular enough, not important enough and would elicit a big fat "what the hay" from everyone.

Want: 1%
Sorry not-a-loli but I don't care much about waifu status for this. Her design is quirky and actually fun, but the first ARMS rep shouldn't be a living bouncy
ball simulator. Even though that's pretty much how everyone actually plays smash...

-
Springton

Chance: 4%
A higher rating than most would give him, simply because he'd be an easy alt. Or Spring Man would be. Or Springtron would become the AT and Spring Man take the slot as the first playable ARMS rep. I actually don't see Springtron alone becoming playable, but he could be a cop out and that's what I want my score to reflect.

Want: 0%
That said, no thank you for Springtron becoming the solo playable. I'd rather have the original. I wouldn't mind Springtron becoming the AT, or an alt to Spring Man, but he has no business being the sole playable character from ARMS.

-
It was hard giving those scores, even now I find myself thinking whether I should've rated Max Brass higher or equal to Dr Coyle... Anyway, here are all my scores:
Day 1:
Spring Man - 8% / 1%
Ribbon Girl - 14% / 10%
Ninjara - 6% / 5%

Day 2:
Min Min - 26% / 30%
Master Mummy - 1% / 0%
Mechanica - 1% / 3%

Day 3:
Twintelle - 22% / 40%
Bite & Barq - 1% / 3%
Kid Cobra - 1% / 0%

Day 4:
Helix - 2% / 4%
Max Brass - 4% / 1%
Misango - 1% / 0%

Day 5:
Dr. Coyle - 8% / 2%
Lola Pop - 1% / 1%
Springton - 4% / 0%
-
Concept: Brand New ARMS Character

Chance: 15%
As a concept, this isn't included in my 100% total. Anyway, that concept is where I would've written more but won't because too tired. I do think there's a chance they delayed the announcement to give us a double reveal: ARMS 2 the game + ARMS 2 fighter. I don't care about the fan rules concerning spirits etc, since I know neither Sakurai nor Nintendo would limit themselves because of them if that's what they truly want. But keeping the new character a mystery then giving us a free demo could be a "stunt" to generate hype for ARMS 2. Why not ARMS 1? Because the hype died down somewhat quickly after its release. Those interested already bought it, those willing to buy the DLC already did it. The free trial may have brought in a few more but nothing consequential. Even now, talk about ARMS is mostly about the new fighter, not the game itself. I'd say Nintendo devs acknowledged the potential that is unfortunately kinda wasted atm (to which fans agree). ARMS needs a bit more depth (or at least have its depth be more meaningful) if it's to retain the attention given to it. And technically, the character would indeed come from ARMS. The franchise, that is.

Want: 30%
It's hard to judge an hypothetical character I know nothing about. I would like an ARMS 2 though, and that first rep could be a first step to introduce us to the new or different stuff there'd be in ARMS 2. Also helps that I trust Sakurai to deliver regardless. Still, I can't deny I'd rather have a familiar face today, but who's to say the new rep wouldn't manage to steal everyone's hearts? Just don't name him or her Joker.

-
Predictions: Papyrus - 0.2%
Nominations: D.Va x10
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Steve x135
[Rerate] Rex x125
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x120
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
Louie x105
Decidueye x103
Meowth x101

100 - 51

Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Zelda (BotW sequel) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Kratos x75
Dr. Eggman x68
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
The Stretchers x60
D.Va x60
[Rerate] Lip x55
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x53

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Fulgore x46
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
[Rerate] Frisk x40
Red (Angry Birds) x40
The Boss (Saints Row) x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Nate Adams x35
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Terrarian x30
Alex Mason x30
Gooigi x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x28
[Rerate] Captain Toad x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Tidus x25

Under 25

Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
Moogle x15
Shuichi Saihara x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Jin Sakai x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Echo: Xion (Sora) x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Rocket League rep x5
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Sakura Shinguji x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo: 40e x1

Rex passes Concepts Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable and Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party to become the runner-up for the noms list. Louie rockets past Meowth and Decidueye and ends the day in fifth place.

Lip pops past 50 noms.

Captain Toad, Gooigi, Rival Pokémon Trainer and Tidus all venture past 25 noms.

Challengers approaching! Today we have Sakura Shinguji and Mii Costume: Jacket, both with 2 noms.

I wasn't going to let my computer get the best of me, so for my own peace of mind I redid the calcs for ARMS day 4 (and don't worry, they came out exactly the same). Since I hadn't updated noms for Gordon's day, I decided to run calcs for him while I was at it, so you get this early.

Gordon Freeman
8.38% Chance - 57.19% Want
Winner of predictions was NintenRob NintenRob with a precise 7.00%
Looks like my quest to nominate a character that gets good scores continues. And it won't be Tidus either.

Won't list who has extra noms cause it's the same as yesterday but with today's winner as well.

As a sidenote, predictions for today's characters (save for Coyle) and concept are all over the place, so it'll be interesting to see who had the better read on the community.
 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,524
Location
Drenthe, NL
Behold, the headlockinator
Chance: 10%
She may the most important character lore-wise but being a DLC character in Arms makes me think she's a bit lower priority than others. Her multiple abilities may also make her a bit too unorthodox, her levitation especially.


Want: 0%
I have neither played as or against her during my time with the game. My Spirit mindset still applies however and the whole levitation gimmick sounds awkward.


How yall look like rating Lola Pop
Chance: 4%
Given the fact that she's another post-launch character and the fact that there are multiple other female characters more popular than her make her getting prioritized seem unlikely. Perhaps a Bowser Jr/Koopalings scenario could help her but I also consider that unlikely.

Want: 0%
Besides the fact that she has no Spirit, Lola Pop is the most annoying character in Arms to me. Perhaps that was the point but everything from her primary arms to her inflation and imflation-cancel abilities just made her a pain to fight.

Loathsome copy
Chance: 16%
If Springman makes it in he could very well be an alt and he wouldn't even feel out of place as one moreso than any other character. However, Springtron doesn't seem to have many fans, so they'd probably still rather go for Ribbon Girl, Ninjara and Min Min and the likes. Better chance with a 8in1 (or even a 5in1) character, tho maybe replacing the Springman Assist Trophy would fit him the best. Springtron as a solo character would be very stupid not gonna lie.

Want: 10%
I'll admit Springtron by himself would be the worst case scenario. They would really drive home Assists and Spirits deconfirming and they wouldn't even go for someone interesting at that. You'd have a character as boring as Springman without the excuse of them being Springman. I'd have some real empathy for his fans if this outcome were to happen Fortunately, I really doubt it will and Springtron as an alt sounds very inoffensive. In that case, why not? The more the merrier.

OMG! It's character from unconfirmed game that doesn't even exist yet. I've wanted them for years!
Double zeroes
Blindsighting us with a character we don't even know the existence of after already showing us who we were supposed to focus on sounds straight up like false advertising, doesn't it? C'mon, we've had shill characters in the past but Nintendo wouldn't go that far. Atleast Corrin's game was out in Japan and was already confirmed in a direct at the start of that year by the time they got into Smash. An Arms 2 character would be way too early and not something I can see Sakurai approving of. Btw, it isn't gonna be Biff either. He's an npc and technically not even "brand new" anyway. Would make zero sense.

Papyrus: 1.91%
Dr. Eggman x5
 

Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
Arms finale

Springman's mom
Chance: 15%
She's the number 4 most likely Arms character in my opinion, but still way behind the top. She's important in Arms, and she's very liked, and I would also like her being the Arms rep very much, but her being a vilain take away some point. Her biggest chance would be if Arms 2 is a prequel where she is the protagonist, but that's just not going to happen.
Want: 55%
I like her design and powers a lot. She also has very cool lore, with her being hinted to be Springman's mother.

Springtron
Chance: Springman's alt, or 1%
He's not getting in unless he's an alt for Springman.
Want: 10%
He's a robot and he's kinda cool, I guess.

The entire circus
Chance: 8%
Lola Pop has a fanbase that likes her a lot. That's kinda it.
Want: 15%
She's funny. Also you can do Ace Attorney references with her.

Arms 2: Electric boogaloo
Chance: 0%
Even if we get someone from Arms 2, it would most likely be an already existing character.
Want: 0%
This is the one time when you can actualy say "literaly who" because who even is this new Arms character.

Papyrus prediction: 0%
 

Ramen Tengoku

Meiniac
Joined
Sep 7, 2018
Messages
15,719
Location
Somewhere
Switch FC
SW-6056-3633-7710
ARMS Finale

Mad doctor lady
Chance: 35%
Coyle is essentially the Bison of the ARMS universe. She's the token villain and responsible for like half the things going on in the story. She revived Master Mummy, she created the likes of Helix, Springtron, Hedlok, etc... She's no doubt important in ARMS itself, and if assists and spirits are a no-go, I'd say she's got a decent shot. She may have been a post launch character but at the same time, I feel her plot relevance in retrospect really nullifies that argument. Her gimmicks may be a little too crazy though, so there's a chance they'd favor someone a little less advanced.

Want: 40%
She's... alright, I guess... You could go with a whole lot worse. At the same time however, I also think there's a whole lotta better options to go for. I'd still take her at the end of the day.

She has no style, she has no grace...
Chance: 6%
She may have a pretty decent fanbase and the like, but she's also a post launch character with little to no notoriety/plot relevance. Her gimmicks may be a little too out there too.

Want: 40%
Like Coyle, she's fine. Nothing groundbreaking, but I'd still take her if all other options are for naught. Though being a clown, she does mildly creep me out.

Metallic Toothpaste
Chance: 5%
There's no way this dude's getting in by himself. He's literally just a throwaway clone of the main protagonist and is not really notable otherwise. Like if you really went and opted for him, you should've just gone all the way with Springo at that point. That being said, I'll still give him a 5% exclusively for the possibility of being a potential Spring Man alt

Want: 5%
Depends. An alt for Springo? Sure, why not? His own character? Heck, naw!

ARM2
Chance: 0.2%
I really don't see this happening. Sakurai almost never adds characters before their games are released, nowadays. There's also the notion of adding a character in before the general public knows about them, something Sakurai hasn't done since Roy (and before you yell "BuT CoRrIn!", Fates was available in Japan for a good six months prior to their unveiling). Heck, there may not even be an ARMS 2 in the works at all, and for all we know, they may have picked an ARMS rep just to boost sales for the already existing game/strengthen the IP. And the way they showed all of the original ARMS cast definitely makes me feel like it'll be one of em instead of the contrary.

Want: 0%
I'm sorry, but I was teased with the 15 characters in the initial ARMS roster, basically being promised it'll be one of them. So for them to pull a fast one and instead opt for an actual literal who out of nowhere after all of this would feel like such a betrayal.

Predictions: Papyrus 0.75%
Nominations: Bravely Default Rep (Yo, have we actually done this yet?) x10

And like that, all done with the ARMS rankings. See y'all on the other side
 
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fogbadge

Smash Obsessed
Joined
Jun 29, 2012
Messages
21,346
Location
Scotland
right then, lets see

lola pop
chances: 40% well shes not the most popular of the cast but she does a few fans so she really is an outsider pick. i suppose theres always a chance that due to amusement about the west's clown fears a certain someone from the arms team may suggest her to sakurai, but thats unlikely i would think. still never say never.
want: 95% she's one of favourites so shes one of my top picks from the cast. also we dont have any sweets fighters or any clowns so she adds a few niches, she would be our fourth inflating character i believe. all in all i just like her and would like to see her fight amongst some of my most favourite (and least favourite) video game characters. also her stage would be my top pick for an arms stage, no matter the arms character.

springtron
chances: 0% i just dont see it happening before springman, as soon as springman is though his chances as an echo will jump up. sakurai does seem to have a soft spot for the dark doppelganger trope so that in theory would help his chances but with out much support or popularity i dont think it would happen.
want: 50% im not fond of the dark doppelganger trope but i think id be ok with him. certainly one of my lower choices but unlike certain others *cough*pittoo*cough* i dont think itd be that bad if he got in.

dr coyle
chances: 40% I dont think it will be her. sure everyone goes on about hows shes the true villain of arms and how shes important to the overall plot but i dont think that would really help as far as smash goes. i dont think shes the most popular of characters either so that doesnt help. sure theres a few thing going for her but i dont think thatll be enough
want: 50% i dont usually care for villains but id take it. i probably wouldnt play as her that often but id still get her just cause i think its great to be getting arms stuff in smash. one of my lower picks but ill take what i can get.

arms 2 character
chances: 0% firstly we dont even know if a new game is being made, secondly the only time sakurai put in a character from a game that wasnt out yet was a case of roster padding and a series we all later learned he is obsessed with. so i just dont see it happening, plenty of people get caught up in the idea of shill picks but its not really the way they do things in smash i dont think itll happen.
want: 0% its difficult to want a hypothetical character who may not even exist yet. also i try to only support characters from games ive played or have an interest in but i cant do it from some characters who not revealed yet or who doesnt exist.

nominations nate adams x10
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,288
Dr. Coyle

Chance: 0%
I think people overestimate how much being the villain helps her chances. We've ALWAYS had the protagonist/mascot first, and I wouldn't be surprised if that stayed true.
Want: 0%
I don't know why, but she doesn't click with me. Despite being the villain, we know only the bare minimum about her, so I can't really support her.

Lola Pop

Chance: 0%
Another character I can't see getting in before the main character. Plus, her unique gimmick might be harder to incorporate than the others.
Want: 90%
Believe it or not, she's one of my favorite characters in the game. The clown aesthetic works really well with ARMS's overall world.

Springtron

Chance: 0%
Why add him before Spring MAN? That'd be like adding Metal Sonic before Sonic.
Want: 0%
Another character who doesn't click with me. The surprise factor of his inclusion has since worn off.

Concept: New ARMS character

Chance: 50%
This depends on a LOT of factors. Is ARMS 2 gonna be a thing? Why did Nintendo decide to add a rep at all? It's too early to say.
Want: 50%
Again, it depends on a lot of factors. Who even IS the character? Why should we care for them and not the other 15? We'll have to wait and see.

Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x10
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,865
Location
winnipeg
Dr.Coyle, Lola Pop and Spring-Tron

Chance: 20%. While I'm pretty sure Spring-Tron is more likely as an alternate costume for Spring-Man, that should stop him. As for Lola and Dr.Coyle, their chances are quite high as well, due to Dr.Coyle being an antagonist and Lola having uniqueness to the Roaster.

Want: 50% for Spring-Tron, 60% for Lola and 65% for Dr.Coyle. All three would be fun to play as, and I think there is potential. I can see Spring-Tron fight R.O.B and Megaman, Lola having a tussle with Duck Hunt, Diddy Kong and Wario as well as Dr.Coyle Fighting Dark Samus and Wendy Koopa. Overall, I see some great potential in this game.

New Arms Character

Chance: We will have to wait and see. I don't know if Arms is getting a new game or not, so I'll abstain.

Want: ???. I honestly don't know if they could join the Battle. I'll abstain for now.

Prediction: Papyrus (5%)

Noms: 3 for Pokeball Pokémon promotion and 2 for Gooigi, and also 5 for Stage: Bowser's Castle
 
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