Well dang it. I guess I didn’t fully understand how the thread worked. I’ll try to pay more attention next time. Thanks for pointing this out, though!!
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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes
- Thread starter TCT~Phantom
- Start date
Ridrool64
Smash Lord
Slime's big brother
Chance (Helix): 10%. Were it not for the sheer fact that Helix doesn't have canonical relevance, nor that much popularity compared to the Spirit crew, I'd say he has a shot. If Ramen's to be believed, he'd be a little likelier if Spirits were out, but I don't think they are so. Meh.
Want (Helix): I sleep. Remember the last few characters where I pretty much plagiarized my own want scores for them because I don't care about them? Same deal here, except this time he's going into the abstain pile. Conflicting information keeps me from giving him a low score.
Three months of false hope for first parties, round 1
Chance (Max Brass): 35%, but I'd take that to a 50% if it was evident Spirits were off the table. Out of the cast, he'd likely be the easiest to impliment bar Spring Man (you could base him off Captain Falcon), and seems to have the greatest relevance/popularity ratio out of the non-Spirits. That being said, I put my money on Spring Man, which shows how I think of the situation and in that regard, he's thoroughly outclassed.
Want (Max Brass): 40%. Sure, he basically puts Paper Mario out to die, but in a twisted sense this is perhaps the most popular character I benefit from. So, in a sense, it's a lose-win-win, and I guess I benefit from that.
I mistook Kid Cobra for this guy during his rating.
Chance (Misango): 5%. No, not happening, sorry. Another character devoid of any reason to join the battle. Wasn't even around for launch. I would also bet against him.
Want (Misango): 10%. Nobody cares about him, I've never seen a single request for Misango to get in Smash. If it weren't for that poll, I think everybody would have silently forgotten that he existed.
ARMS, ARMZ 'n ARMIE
Chance (multirep): 20%. This concept is directly banking on it being Spring Man, as this literally will not happen otherwise. But if it is Spring Man, it could happen, as we've seen the square characters, round fighter trope happen over and over to add to the number of playable characters without changing the number of fighters. It's entirely possible... yet something tells me it won't.
Want (multirep): Eh, I'll leave this one to the ARMS experts. Abstaining, because if I don't care about ARMS, I don't care who makes it in. So whether it's a waste of potential or a way to include more fanservice is no sweat off my back.
Frisk x 10, Gordon Freeman I doubt the chances of him getting rated too highly. 19.70%.
Chance (Helix): 10%. Were it not for the sheer fact that Helix doesn't have canonical relevance, nor that much popularity compared to the Spirit crew, I'd say he has a shot. If Ramen's to be believed, he'd be a little likelier if Spirits were out, but I don't think they are so. Meh.
Want (Helix): I sleep. Remember the last few characters where I pretty much plagiarized my own want scores for them because I don't care about them? Same deal here, except this time he's going into the abstain pile. Conflicting information keeps me from giving him a low score.
Three months of false hope for first parties, round 1
Chance (Max Brass): 35%, but I'd take that to a 50% if it was evident Spirits were off the table. Out of the cast, he'd likely be the easiest to impliment bar Spring Man (you could base him off Captain Falcon), and seems to have the greatest relevance/popularity ratio out of the non-Spirits. That being said, I put my money on Spring Man, which shows how I think of the situation and in that regard, he's thoroughly outclassed.
Want (Max Brass): 40%. Sure, he basically puts Paper Mario out to die, but in a twisted sense this is perhaps the most popular character I benefit from. So, in a sense, it's a lose-win-win, and I guess I benefit from that.
I mistook Kid Cobra for this guy during his rating.
Chance (Misango): 5%. No, not happening, sorry. Another character devoid of any reason to join the battle. Wasn't even around for launch. I would also bet against him.
Want (Misango): 10%. Nobody cares about him, I've never seen a single request for Misango to get in Smash. If it weren't for that poll, I think everybody would have silently forgotten that he existed.
ARMS, ARMZ 'n ARMIE
Chance (multirep): 20%. This concept is directly banking on it being Spring Man, as this literally will not happen otherwise. But if it is Spring Man, it could happen, as we've seen the square characters, round fighter trope happen over and over to add to the number of playable characters without changing the number of fighters. It's entirely possible... yet something tells me it won't.
Want (multirep): Eh, I'll leave this one to the ARMS experts. Abstaining, because if I don't care about ARMS, I don't care who makes it in. So whether it's a waste of potential or a way to include more fanservice is no sweat off my back.
Frisk x 10, Gordon Freeman I doubt the chances of him getting rated too highly. 19.70%.
Glaciacott
Smash Lord
I'll abstain on the individual fighters since it'll will just be single digits anyway and I don't feel like going into details for each. I have bigger fish to fry.
Arms Alts
Chance 0%
I'm going to be bold and say that this is not happening. By virtue of living in a post-piranha plant world I think there's importance in realizing anything is possible, and I also feel like this will put me in an awkward situation is it happens, but I'm going to go ahead and trust Sakurai, Yabuki and everyone involved to not do this.
Everyone has talked about this one, and I still see a lot of people go "but dude, you can change your arms in arms so it makes sense" or "the base mechanics of arms just has everyone punch so it's ok" or "they're ok with butchering characters just to add them"
For that first point, it's nowhere near the same. It's one thing saying you will put in Spring Man and he gets to use the Sparky because it makes for a cool move. Gotcha. But... why not just do that? I don't see why the dev team should feel compelled to add several characters just to reference different arms. It's the Byleth scenario all over again: "why not have byleth summon edelgard, dimitri and claude to fight", and the answer wound up being because it's much simpler and more elegant to just have Byleth use the weapons of those characters. I'll sooner believe that Spring Man can kick because Min Min taught him or something than see several characters meshed into a weird amalgalm.
Second point is one that tells me people either don't play Arms or don't respect what it does as a fighting game and the importance of animations. While several things regarding basic movement are similar between all characters, many others are not. It will look extremely stupid to see Spring Man doing a kung fu stance like Min Min, or Ribbon Girl slouching like Kid Cobra, or Max Brass jumping with the elegance of Ribbon Girl.
"dude but Hero" - Hero comes from an RPG. The movement of the character in a fighting game is extremely different from an RPG and it gives devs more creative freedom to assume they could all fight with similar animations. With Arms, we have seen what they move and fight like because they're already from a fighting game, games where to convey character and personality it is all about animations. Just think of victory screens... it's reasonable to see any Hero come down and check out slime... but would it make sense to see Ninjara jumping and beaming like Spring Man about winning? Of course not.
Then the other counterpoint: but then the dev team could still give them different victory screens or different animations like female variants, etc. And then my question to that is why.
Which is really the main point: Why. I don't think the logic of "it can make more people happy" really applies here when I extremely doubt anyone even expected Arms, and in this context I am super ready to bet nearly zero arms fans will go "man, it turned out to be Lola Pop only? Guess I won't buy the pass". Any Arms character being added is already a huge accomplishment and Arms fans will already be psyched about Arms in smash even if it's just one character.
So then the cost-benefit of more characters is that it could make more people happier, but meanwhile the dev team would have to: create different skeletons or risk looking like crap, create different animations for each variant or risk looking like crap, make sure all are balanced and free of bugs or risk looking like crap. It makes zero sense to me that the dev team would consider this outside of special request, and I will be very surprised if a producer could actually make it a special request that Sakurai add more than one character just because.
Other argument: "but then why did they show the entire cast in the tease?" Because they wanted to generate hype and market the game? If you get to try out Arms for free and you don't know who the chosen character is, you'll play as everyone and develop your own favorite and enjoy the game. The point of wasn't to just have people play arms for free so they could check out the next smash character. It was to have them check out Arms. It's like if they had teased an SNK character and people went "dude I bet it's Terry with Kyo, Geese and Mai alts. They're all fighting game characters and they'll probably move the same."
Want 0%
If it's not already clear, I think this is one of the worst ideas to spawn out of this speculation cycle. If this actually happened it would probably be the one way for Sakurai and the team to completely ruin the Arms character, since in trying to add multiple characters we would just wind up with no character, just a weird mix of mechanics and concepts. It would be especially stupid in a world where Isabelle is not an echo of Villager because they're shaped differently.
Arms Alts
Chance 0%
I'm going to be bold and say that this is not happening. By virtue of living in a post-piranha plant world I think there's importance in realizing anything is possible, and I also feel like this will put me in an awkward situation is it happens, but I'm going to go ahead and trust Sakurai, Yabuki and everyone involved to not do this.
Everyone has talked about this one, and I still see a lot of people go "but dude, you can change your arms in arms so it makes sense" or "the base mechanics of arms just has everyone punch so it's ok" or "they're ok with butchering characters just to add them"
For that first point, it's nowhere near the same. It's one thing saying you will put in Spring Man and he gets to use the Sparky because it makes for a cool move. Gotcha. But... why not just do that? I don't see why the dev team should feel compelled to add several characters just to reference different arms. It's the Byleth scenario all over again: "why not have byleth summon edelgard, dimitri and claude to fight", and the answer wound up being because it's much simpler and more elegant to just have Byleth use the weapons of those characters. I'll sooner believe that Spring Man can kick because Min Min taught him or something than see several characters meshed into a weird amalgalm.
Second point is one that tells me people either don't play Arms or don't respect what it does as a fighting game and the importance of animations. While several things regarding basic movement are similar between all characters, many others are not. It will look extremely stupid to see Spring Man doing a kung fu stance like Min Min, or Ribbon Girl slouching like Kid Cobra, or Max Brass jumping with the elegance of Ribbon Girl.
"dude but Hero" - Hero comes from an RPG. The movement of the character in a fighting game is extremely different from an RPG and it gives devs more creative freedom to assume they could all fight with similar animations. With Arms, we have seen what they move and fight like because they're already from a fighting game, games where to convey character and personality it is all about animations. Just think of victory screens... it's reasonable to see any Hero come down and check out slime... but would it make sense to see Ninjara jumping and beaming like Spring Man about winning? Of course not.
Then the other counterpoint: but then the dev team could still give them different victory screens or different animations like female variants, etc. And then my question to that is why.
Which is really the main point: Why. I don't think the logic of "it can make more people happy" really applies here when I extremely doubt anyone even expected Arms, and in this context I am super ready to bet nearly zero arms fans will go "man, it turned out to be Lola Pop only? Guess I won't buy the pass". Any Arms character being added is already a huge accomplishment and Arms fans will already be psyched about Arms in smash even if it's just one character.
So then the cost-benefit of more characters is that it could make more people happier, but meanwhile the dev team would have to: create different skeletons or risk looking like crap, create different animations for each variant or risk looking like crap, make sure all are balanced and free of bugs or risk looking like crap. It makes zero sense to me that the dev team would consider this outside of special request, and I will be very surprised if a producer could actually make it a special request that Sakurai add more than one character just because.
Other argument: "but then why did they show the entire cast in the tease?" Because they wanted to generate hype and market the game? If you get to try out Arms for free and you don't know who the chosen character is, you'll play as everyone and develop your own favorite and enjoy the game. The point of wasn't to just have people play arms for free so they could check out the next smash character. It was to have them check out Arms. It's like if they had teased an SNK character and people went "dude I bet it's Terry with Kyo, Geese and Mai alts. They're all fighting game characters and they'll probably move the same."
Want 0%
If it's not already clear, I think this is one of the worst ideas to spawn out of this speculation cycle. If this actually happened it would probably be the one way for Sakurai and the team to completely ruin the Arms character, since in trying to add multiple characters we would just wind up with no character, just a weird mix of mechanics and concepts. It would be especially stupid in a world where Isabelle is not an echo of Villager because they're shaped differently.
Icedragonadam
Smash Master
- Joined
- Jul 16, 2014
- Messages
- 4,093
- Switch FC
- SW-5227-6397-6112
Helix
Chance: 10%
I could see him, probably as a fun gimmicky unexpected character Sakurai sometimes throws in. But he's overshadowed by other ARMS characters like the way below him.
Want: 50%:
He seems cool. I like his design which would mesh well in Smash.
Max Brass
Chance: 50%.
I personally think it'll be him. He's the closest kind of character to Springman(especially with the fan theories that he's Springman's father) that would represent the ARMS mechanic really well. He's the champion and commissioner of the ARMS tournament. His unique ability and stage(Sky Arena) would be easy to translate into Smash.
Want: 100%.
He's without a doubt the ARMS character I want the most in the game as well. His personality and design is just awesome to me.
Misango
Chance: 0.1%.
Without a doubt the most forgetful character in the game. Hardly any fan acknowledges him. Heck I forget he's there at times as well.
Want: 20%
His Aztec design is neat but I prefer other ARMS characters.
ARMS Alts
Chance: 0.1%
This is incredibly unlikely at all. Different characters as alts have to be 1.1 to the original character and most of the ARMS characters can't. It worked for Hero as most of the Protagonists have a similar Shounen design. And each ARMs character has a unique ability they can use. It just wouldn't work at all.
Want: 0%
Please no. It would just be mangle mess to me so a single character would work better to me.
Chance: 10%
I could see him, probably as a fun gimmicky unexpected character Sakurai sometimes throws in. But he's overshadowed by other ARMS characters like the way below him.
Want: 50%:
He seems cool. I like his design which would mesh well in Smash.
Max Brass
Chance: 50%.
I personally think it'll be him. He's the closest kind of character to Springman(especially with the fan theories that he's Springman's father) that would represent the ARMS mechanic really well. He's the champion and commissioner of the ARMS tournament. His unique ability and stage(Sky Arena) would be easy to translate into Smash.
Want: 100%.
He's without a doubt the ARMS character I want the most in the game as well. His personality and design is just awesome to me.
Misango
Chance: 0.1%.
Without a doubt the most forgetful character in the game. Hardly any fan acknowledges him. Heck I forget he's there at times as well.
Want: 20%
His Aztec design is neat but I prefer other ARMS characters.
ARMS Alts
Chance: 0.1%
This is incredibly unlikely at all. Different characters as alts have to be 1.1 to the original character and most of the ARMS characters can't. It worked for Hero as most of the Protagonists have a similar Shounen design. And each ARMs character has a unique ability they can use. It just wouldn't work at all.
Want: 0%
Please no. It would just be mangle mess to me so a single character would work better to me.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
"Which is really the main point: Why. I don't think the logic of "it can make more people happy" really applies here when I extremely doubt anyone even expected Dragon Quest, and in this context I am super ready to bet nearly zero arms fans will go "man, it turned out to be Solo only? Guess I won't buy the pass". Any Dragon Quest character being added is already a huge accomplishment and Dragon Quest fans will already be psyched about Dragon Quest in smash even if it's just one character.
So then the cost-benefit of more characters is that it could make more people happier, but meanwhile the dev team would have to: create different skeletons or risk looking like crap, create different animations for each variant or risk looking like crap, make sure all are balanced and free of bugs or risk looking like crap. It makes zero sense to me that the dev team would consider this outside of special request, and I will be very surprised if a producer could actually make it a special request that Sakurai add more than one character just because."
Tl;dr Never put it past Sakurai to go above and beyond to please the fans and give as much fanservice as possible, even if the fans would be happy with much less. Look at the incredible amount of fanservice every character pass included, you can't tell me he wouldn't want to do the same here.
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
- Messages
- 1,784
Helix
Chance - 1% - Another one of those "too gimmicky for the first character" type deals, his ability to squash and stretch would detract from the main draw of an ARMS character at all. While his quirkiness might make him okay in his own franchise, this makes him a bad introduction to the new one and kinda hard to implement.
Want - 45% - I like him, don't get me wrong. I just have a feeling that if he were to get in, he would be way too gimmicky to my tastes.
Max Brass
Chance - 5% - If for some reason spirits and assist trophies are off the table, he probably has one of the bigger claims to the throne. Due to being a major figure in-universe and basically a Spring Man 2.0 in terms of abilities (Springtron is Spring Man 3.0), he seems well suited to take on the role should Spring Man basically not make the cut. That said, I think they will go with a spirit or assist trophy promotion.
Want - 80% - Max Brass is a great mix of serious character out of the game and doofy in game. Look at him returning after being launched away and tell me that doesn't bring a smile. I would still prefer Spring Man, but I'll take it!
Misango
Chance - 0% - At least Helix was an original roster character with a very memorable design. Misango was left by the wayside, and his multiform gimmick would probably be too much. It's also already been done with Shulk.
Want - 45% - Like Helix, I don't want ARMS characters to be overly gimmicky. I'd rather have more... conventional character to play as.
Multi-character Alts
Chance - 25% - I can see it happening, as this will probably be the last character that will get in for ARMS, so they might want to squeeze in a few extras. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl as similar enough to get away with it, not to mention Springtron. I can see them going either way, especially with this guessing game making things more ambiguous.
Want - 90% - I don't feel like it would be a big loss, as I have a feeling even if they were solo they would probably have their unique attributes removed, so their is less of a loss in my eyes.
Nominations
Lip X10
Chance - 1% - Another one of those "too gimmicky for the first character" type deals, his ability to squash and stretch would detract from the main draw of an ARMS character at all. While his quirkiness might make him okay in his own franchise, this makes him a bad introduction to the new one and kinda hard to implement.
Want - 45% - I like him, don't get me wrong. I just have a feeling that if he were to get in, he would be way too gimmicky to my tastes.
Max Brass
Chance - 5% - If for some reason spirits and assist trophies are off the table, he probably has one of the bigger claims to the throne. Due to being a major figure in-universe and basically a Spring Man 2.0 in terms of abilities (Springtron is Spring Man 3.0), he seems well suited to take on the role should Spring Man basically not make the cut. That said, I think they will go with a spirit or assist trophy promotion.
Want - 80% - Max Brass is a great mix of serious character out of the game and doofy in game. Look at him returning after being launched away and tell me that doesn't bring a smile. I would still prefer Spring Man, but I'll take it!
Misango
Chance - 0% - At least Helix was an original roster character with a very memorable design. Misango was left by the wayside, and his multiform gimmick would probably be too much. It's also already been done with Shulk.
Want - 45% - Like Helix, I don't want ARMS characters to be overly gimmicky. I'd rather have more... conventional character to play as.
Multi-character Alts
Chance - 25% - I can see it happening, as this will probably be the last character that will get in for ARMS, so they might want to squeeze in a few extras. Spring Man and Ribbon Girl as similar enough to get away with it, not to mention Springtron. I can see them going either way, especially with this guessing game making things more ambiguous.
Want - 90% - I don't feel like it would be a big loss, as I have a feeling even if they were solo they would probably have their unique attributes removed, so their is less of a loss in my eyes.
Nominations
Lip X10
Helix:
He's a very goofy character in ARMS and I love how weird he is. But I feel like people only really consider him when they think of a base game character who doesn't have a spirit. For me he's just too different. He has bonus points of notability for sharing design with the mooks of ARMS. But I just think the first ARMS character should be someone who is more vanilla, I feel would represent ARMS better.
Chance 1%
Want 18%
Misango:
The most forgettable character in the game, and being dlc doesn't help. Like I just can't see him being chosen, maybe as the eighth slot in the multi character concept but I think that's extremely unlikely (hmm, Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Ninjara, Kid Cobra, Lola Pop, Dr Coyle, Misango). But I do think he might be too buff and different for it .
Double 0
The Commish
Max Brass is imo the most likely character after Spring Man, I know Min Min is more popular but Max Brass is the in universe star of ARMS. He may have been a DLC character, but he's been there since the beginning as the final boss of single player. To me, he's notable enough that if he was included, I wouldn't necessarily think that Spirits are deconfirmed, assist trophies yes, That's the only reason I could see them skipping Spring Man, but I could see Max Brass having priority over Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Twintelle and Min Min, even if spirits are non factor. I also think he could be easier to balance, he'd probably be slower to compensate he's large range. Also he's just cool.
Chance 38%
Want 60%
Alts
Smash Bros is being more and more liberal with the differences alts can have, Byleth genders have different taunts and victory animations, so personality would still be retained for the most part. And to me, the unique abilities each character has just isn't unique enough in the context of Smash.
Spring Man: Already doesn't use his ability in Smash as an assist trophy
Ribbon Girl: everyone already has an extra jump.
Min Min: Kicks are already often used to fill in the gaps of a moveset, even if the original character doesn't kick (Link, Hero)
Ninjara: His ninja smoke is essentially just spot dodging.
I fully believe these abilities are not essential. And ARMS are already usable with everyone. The question is if they can get away posing and fighting like each other. They certainly could, but they aren't the blank slates Hero are. I do think they could do it, and for me it it'll just be more characters to play as so I do want it
Chance 50%
Want 99%
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x10
Predictions.... 7%?
He's a very goofy character in ARMS and I love how weird he is. But I feel like people only really consider him when they think of a base game character who doesn't have a spirit. For me he's just too different. He has bonus points of notability for sharing design with the mooks of ARMS. But I just think the first ARMS character should be someone who is more vanilla, I feel would represent ARMS better.
Chance 1%
Want 18%
Misango:
The most forgettable character in the game, and being dlc doesn't help. Like I just can't see him being chosen, maybe as the eighth slot in the multi character concept but I think that's extremely unlikely (hmm, Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Min Min, Ninjara, Kid Cobra, Lola Pop, Dr Coyle, Misango). But I do think he might be too buff and different for it .
Double 0
The Commish
Max Brass is imo the most likely character after Spring Man, I know Min Min is more popular but Max Brass is the in universe star of ARMS. He may have been a DLC character, but he's been there since the beginning as the final boss of single player. To me, he's notable enough that if he was included, I wouldn't necessarily think that Spirits are deconfirmed, assist trophies yes, That's the only reason I could see them skipping Spring Man, but I could see Max Brass having priority over Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Twintelle and Min Min, even if spirits are non factor. I also think he could be easier to balance, he'd probably be slower to compensate he's large range. Also he's just cool.
Chance 38%
Want 60%
Alts
Smash Bros is being more and more liberal with the differences alts can have, Byleth genders have different taunts and victory animations, so personality would still be retained for the most part. And to me, the unique abilities each character has just isn't unique enough in the context of Smash.
Spring Man: Already doesn't use his ability in Smash as an assist trophy
Ribbon Girl: everyone already has an extra jump.
Min Min: Kicks are already often used to fill in the gaps of a moveset, even if the original character doesn't kick (Link, Hero)
Ninjara: His ninja smoke is essentially just spot dodging.
I fully believe these abilities are not essential. And ARMS are already usable with everyone. The question is if they can get away posing and fighting like each other. They certainly could, but they aren't the blank slates Hero are. I do think they could do it, and for me it it'll just be more characters to play as so I do want it
Chance 50%
Want 99%
Nominate content from currently unreleased game x10
Predictions.... 7%?
Simnm
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2019
- Messages
- 301
Helix
Chance:40%
His has an interesting design and mechanic.i can see sakurai picking him as the arms rep due to his mechanic and design.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the potential arms rep.
Max brass:
Chane:50%
He does play a big part in the arms story so i think sakurai might pick him.he could also have a unique gimmick in which he increase his size/weight.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the arms rep.
Misango
Chance:3%
He was added later in the game as dlc and dosent play that much of a role in the story.i dont think sakurai would choose him.
Want:40%
Mostly neutral.though i want someone who represnts the arms ip better.
Multiple arms rep as alts
Chance:55%
I personally think that this has a high chance of being the way sakurai will handle the arms rep.
However animating multiple models for one smash character might be hard.there is also the issue of some of the arms character moves being watered down to be an alt.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the possible arms character.
Noms:steve(rerate)×10
Chance:40%
His has an interesting design and mechanic.i can see sakurai picking him as the arms rep due to his mechanic and design.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the potential arms rep.
Max brass:
Chane:50%
He does play a big part in the arms story so i think sakurai might pick him.he could also have a unique gimmick in which he increase his size/weight.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the arms rep.
Misango
Chance:3%
He was added later in the game as dlc and dosent play that much of a role in the story.i dont think sakurai would choose him.
Want:40%
Mostly neutral.though i want someone who represnts the arms ip better.
Multiple arms rep as alts
Chance:55%
I personally think that this has a high chance of being the way sakurai will handle the arms rep.
However animating multiple models for one smash character might be hard.there is also the issue of some of the arms character moves being watered down to be an alt.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the possible arms character.
Noms:steve(rerate)×10
Abstaining completely on the first three. All I'll say is that I don't think any of them are likely apart from maybe Max Brass but even that's a stretch (no pun intended).
-----
Alts as characters
Chance: 70%
If Nintendo wants to push ARMS as their next big series (since the ARMS rep was a production request according to Sakurai), I think it'd make sense for them to represent as many of the colorful characters as they can through one playable character.
Garteam
perfectly addressed most of the counterpoints to this happening here, mainly the ones about why ARMS getting alts would be different from that of shotos and how it wouldn't be too different from the DQ Hero getting alts. Furthermore we've seen in the past that a character doesn't have to be 100% faithful to be an alt, such as with the various DQ Heroes using spells that they can't normally use and Alph not even using Rock Pikmin. Same applies to non-alt characters, like Simon using some of Richter's moves and Ness/Lucas being able to use only one or two of their Smash PSI moves in their original games. Point is, Sakurai can give or take a few moves from the original character and still make them fun and faithful at the same time.
Granted Alph should've been able to use Rock Pikmin though he's sort of a special case where he was an alt added to an already existing character.
I think the main reason I'm hopeful in this is that the main ARMS rep will probably be Spring Man since mascot/most recognizable character first has basically always been a thing especially with first parties. He's probably the most likely but it would just feel so weird to ignore the tons of other colorful characters when they've been making a big deal about "whose it gonna be" in the announcement trailer.
So who would the alt costume candidates be? Obviously characters like Helix wouldn't work since they are just way too unique. Well if Spring Man gets in I think Ribbon Girl is basically guaranteed as an alt of they decide to do this since they have similar body proportations/stats. There is also Min Min who is just way too popular to just pass to the side as well as Springtron who would be the easiest to do. Ninjara could also maybe work considering his popularity though his posing could be an issue.
I posted this in a discussion thread for a SmashBoards article but I personally think we'll get a DQ Hero deal where we get 4 characters with each having a single color palette swap. Here's what I think they'll be:
If this doesn't happen then I think it'll just be Spring Man and Ribbon Girl.
However there is one existing Smash character that has been giving me doubts of the ARMS character alts concept from happening: Byleth. Of the 4 major characters in TH, Byleth was without a doubt the least popular of them all and yet they got into Smash in the end. They even got the Hero Relics which are primarily used by the House Leaders to sort of represent them. So there's a chance they'll just add Spring Man, give him some moves from other popular characters, give him some alt colors that are based on those other characters (and not the characters themselves) and call it a day.
There is also a chance they add just Min Min since she is the most popular character and they forget about the alt character concept. Her inclusion would also fall in line with the character being her instead of Spring Man as most people might have expected. But bringing things back to Fire Emblem, Byleth getting in over Edelgard gives me slight doubts of Min Min over Spring Man.
So basically I think there are three possibilities of who the ARMS rep will be:
Want: 100%
ARMS has a ton of colorful characters that I think representing just one of them in battle would be a shame. There is a lot of potential when it comes to separate characters as alts especially since you can equip any type of ARMS in the actual game (not to mention some characters even have similar default loadouts). Any chance at having Ribbon Girl and Min Min playable at the same time would be great and think they'd still be good representations of their characters.
Gordon chance prediction: 30.00% (will probably be much higher than it should be because of Half-Life: Alyx)
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x10
-----
Alts as characters
Chance: 70%
If Nintendo wants to push ARMS as their next big series (since the ARMS rep was a production request according to Sakurai), I think it'd make sense for them to represent as many of the colorful characters as they can through one playable character.
Garteam
perfectly addressed most of the counterpoints to this happening here, mainly the ones about why ARMS getting alts would be different from that of shotos and how it wouldn't be too different from the DQ Hero getting alts. Furthermore we've seen in the past that a character doesn't have to be 100% faithful to be an alt, such as with the various DQ Heroes using spells that they can't normally use and Alph not even using Rock Pikmin. Same applies to non-alt characters, like Simon using some of Richter's moves and Ness/Lucas being able to use only one or two of their Smash PSI moves in their original games. Point is, Sakurai can give or take a few moves from the original character and still make them fun and faithful at the same time.Granted Alph should've been able to use Rock Pikmin though he's sort of a special case where he was an alt added to an already existing character.
I think the main reason I'm hopeful in this is that the main ARMS rep will probably be Spring Man since mascot/most recognizable character first has basically always been a thing especially with first parties. He's probably the most likely but it would just feel so weird to ignore the tons of other colorful characters when they've been making a big deal about "whose it gonna be" in the announcement trailer.
So who would the alt costume candidates be? Obviously characters like Helix wouldn't work since they are just way too unique. Well if Spring Man gets in I think Ribbon Girl is basically guaranteed as an alt of they decide to do this since they have similar body proportations/stats. There is also Min Min who is just way too popular to just pass to the side as well as Springtron who would be the easiest to do. Ninjara could also maybe work considering his popularity though his posing could be an issue.
I posted this in a discussion thread for a SmashBoards article but I personally think we'll get a DQ Hero deal where we get 4 characters with each having a single color palette swap. Here's what I think they'll be:
- Spring Man (with Springtron color swap)
- Ribbon Girl (with Twintelle color swap)
- Ninjara (with Misango color swap)
- Min Min (with Mechanica color swap)
- Ribbon Girl (with Twintelle color swap)
- Ninjara (with Misango color swap)
- Min Min (with Mechanica color swap)
If this doesn't happen then I think it'll just be Spring Man and Ribbon Girl.
However there is one existing Smash character that has been giving me doubts of the ARMS character alts concept from happening: Byleth. Of the 4 major characters in TH, Byleth was without a doubt the least popular of them all and yet they got into Smash in the end. They even got the Hero Relics which are primarily used by the House Leaders to sort of represent them. So there's a chance they'll just add Spring Man, give him some moves from other popular characters, give him some alt colors that are based on those other characters (and not the characters themselves) and call it a day.
There is also a chance they add just Min Min since she is the most popular character and they forget about the alt character concept. Her inclusion would also fall in line with the character being her instead of Spring Man as most people might have expected. But bringing things back to Fire Emblem, Byleth getting in over Edelgard gives me slight doubts of Min Min over Spring Man.
So basically I think there are three possibilities of who the ARMS rep will be:
- Spring Man with character alts
- Spring Man by himself
- Min Min by herself
Want: 100%
ARMS has a ton of colorful characters that I think representing just one of them in battle would be a shame. There is a lot of potential when it comes to separate characters as alts especially since you can equip any type of ARMS in the actual game (not to mention some characters even have similar default loadouts). Any chance at having Ribbon Girl and Min Min playable at the same time would be great and think they'd still be good representations of their characters.
Gordon chance prediction: 30.00% (will probably be much higher than it should be because of Half-Life: Alyx)
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x10
ProfPeanut
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Oct 1, 2008
- Messages
- 727
Helix
Chance: 33%
Had Helix begun life as a Smash character, we'd probably see him used in numerous creative ways - we've yet to have a gooey boy in Smash before. As it stands, however, he's got some weird quirks to adhere to, which complicates a theoretical implementation.
For one, it's difficult to imagine his extendable body being very practical in, well, practice. He turns himself into a taller hitbox without the benefits of necessarily juking most attacks? Not the most useful thing in Smash. On the flipside, being able to flatten his hitbox to the ground reminds me of the issues of short characters versus normal attacks that swing above them - and if foes have to approach normally because of such, Helix could potentially force a lot of very unpleasant competitive match-ups. It's a weird can of worms that any balance team would have to tackle with, since Helix's mechanics are designed to be balanced primarily within ARMS.
Something important that I feel no one acknowledges, however, is this: Helix's default Arms are terribly unindicative of ARMS itself. If a newcomer was forced to play him, they wouldn't get the simple one-two-punches or the effective different takes on that - they'd get a purely-defensive shield, a glacially-paced laser, and a very erratic bouncing ball. The last one could ever make for an interesting moveset, but it's still a great distance away from how ARMS is normally played
Want: 20%
I'm fine enough with Helix itself - he's a gooey boy and would make a neat set in laxer conditions. But he's just not the guy that I'd get to represent ARMS itself.
Max Brass
Chance: 60%
Main challenger of every single story route, and the commisioner of the competitive ARMS league, Max Brass is an unavoidable presence. It's easy to see him getting picked for his recurrence alone, similarly to how Byleth was picked for being a major presence in every single Three Houses route. He wears a fist-shaped helmet that begs to be used in combat.
Again, the question comes down to how the balance team feels about equipping their long-range character with extreme weight and a power boost when on high percents. Does Max Brass' lack of mobility and large size balance out the range he wields, or would it be a burden of unnecessary power that'd weigh down the rest of his moveset? Max Brass' default set includes a heavy foe-seeking hammer and grenade fists, both of which become explosive when he charges them up - potentially way more painful, but also exploitable if an enemy could trigger them before Max Brass can throw them out. A very interesting challenge - and yet, maybe a bit too much of a challenge for Sakurai to find him appealing to tackle.
Want: 70%
While his character's a little flat (kind of like a buff Captain Falcon but without the memetic lines), he's at least more appealing that Springman. I consider him the best-suited to represent ARMS if Spirits truly can't be reused, and he'd be at least second if that weren't the case.
Misango
Chance: 10%
Could this feasibly happen? He's possibly the most forgettable of the DLC characters, even with Springtron around. But his mechanics would be a very interesting addition to have in Smash, which gives him some appeal despite his lack of popularity.
While said mechanics aren't the best way to represent ARMS, he at least plays closer to ARMS' core gameplay loop than Helix does. His poisonous ARMS can deploy bugs on the ground that chase foes, or bounce along the ground instead and explode, but he still has a practical basic punching set that he can use too.
Want: 20%
It's sad that I'm alone in thinking that Misango's mechanics would have pretty great value in Smash. He can earn buffs laglessly and create walls to play around - that's some pretty cool stuff. Still, there's no denying that he's niche and has very little character besides being a determined wild warrior.
If Misango had been the star of his own game with his mechanics intact, people would rally behind him fairly quickly, I'd think. As it stands, though, he's just not the best representative of the stretchy-arm fighting game genre.
Alt-o-Mania 2020
Chance: 25%
It's not impossible since we don't know who it is. They've been oddly coy about it, even though it could easily just be Springman and they just wanted to warn us ahead of time about where FP6 was coming from. Why bring up the possibility of 15 other candidates at all if they weren't realistically possible? Why not just simply make Springman alone with seven aptly-coloured alts and call it a day, instead of working to make three other unique characters fit into a rig that isn't theirs, with all the quirks they need to still feel like themselves??
Of course, perhaps they'd been planning this the whole time in their attempt to bring ARMS to relevance, hoping to generate fanbases for at least four of ARMS' characters. It could happen.
Want: 1%
...but I won't like it.
Unlike other game series, ARMS doesn't have a long legacy to honor nor a specific group of interchangeable characters. But it does have a variety of playable characters that express themselves via fighting style in unique ways, even though everyone works with the same one-two punch system.
Saying that characters in ARMS are essentially interchangeable feels insulting to a game that had struggled to even carve out a competitive scene for itself, especially on the paradigm-warping grand stage of Super Smash Bros. It's like saying that the roles of these chosen characters are interchangeable - that Ninjara's deceptive defensive plays are the same as Ribbon Girl's unrivaled air mobility, or that Min Min's methods of maintaining charged punches is the same as Springman's. It's like saying that they play the same - and if handled indelicately, that's exactly what people are going to think about ARMS, even with the likes of Helix, Max Brass, and Misango in it.
These aren't legacy characters - they're barely three years old. They don't have long fanbases behind them that'd be pleased to see their historical significances represented. They're characters still trying to carve out their places in the world, each one crafted to stand out on their own merits - and you want them lumped together and classified as essentially the same fighter??
Who exactly would this please, anyway? As has been mentioned, ARMS fans would be happy with just about anyone because it'd still mean that they got a character into Smash. It seems far more likely to me that this would mostly please either the speculators who want the Assist Trophy and Spirit rules broken, or the people who simp Min Min.
Nominations
Gooigi x10
Chance: 33%
Had Helix begun life as a Smash character, we'd probably see him used in numerous creative ways - we've yet to have a gooey boy in Smash before. As it stands, however, he's got some weird quirks to adhere to, which complicates a theoretical implementation.
For one, it's difficult to imagine his extendable body being very practical in, well, practice. He turns himself into a taller hitbox without the benefits of necessarily juking most attacks? Not the most useful thing in Smash. On the flipside, being able to flatten his hitbox to the ground reminds me of the issues of short characters versus normal attacks that swing above them - and if foes have to approach normally because of such, Helix could potentially force a lot of very unpleasant competitive match-ups. It's a weird can of worms that any balance team would have to tackle with, since Helix's mechanics are designed to be balanced primarily within ARMS.
Something important that I feel no one acknowledges, however, is this: Helix's default Arms are terribly unindicative of ARMS itself. If a newcomer was forced to play him, they wouldn't get the simple one-two-punches or the effective different takes on that - they'd get a purely-defensive shield, a glacially-paced laser, and a very erratic bouncing ball. The last one could ever make for an interesting moveset, but it's still a great distance away from how ARMS is normally played
Want: 20%
I'm fine enough with Helix itself - he's a gooey boy and would make a neat set in laxer conditions. But he's just not the guy that I'd get to represent ARMS itself.
Max Brass
Chance: 60%
Main challenger of every single story route, and the commisioner of the competitive ARMS league, Max Brass is an unavoidable presence. It's easy to see him getting picked for his recurrence alone, similarly to how Byleth was picked for being a major presence in every single Three Houses route. He wears a fist-shaped helmet that begs to be used in combat.
Again, the question comes down to how the balance team feels about equipping their long-range character with extreme weight and a power boost when on high percents. Does Max Brass' lack of mobility and large size balance out the range he wields, or would it be a burden of unnecessary power that'd weigh down the rest of his moveset? Max Brass' default set includes a heavy foe-seeking hammer and grenade fists, both of which become explosive when he charges them up - potentially way more painful, but also exploitable if an enemy could trigger them before Max Brass can throw them out. A very interesting challenge - and yet, maybe a bit too much of a challenge for Sakurai to find him appealing to tackle.
Want: 70%
While his character's a little flat (kind of like a buff Captain Falcon but without the memetic lines), he's at least more appealing that Springman. I consider him the best-suited to represent ARMS if Spirits truly can't be reused, and he'd be at least second if that weren't the case.
Misango
Chance: 10%
Could this feasibly happen? He's possibly the most forgettable of the DLC characters, even with Springtron around. But his mechanics would be a very interesting addition to have in Smash, which gives him some appeal despite his lack of popularity.
While said mechanics aren't the best way to represent ARMS, he at least plays closer to ARMS' core gameplay loop than Helix does. His poisonous ARMS can deploy bugs on the ground that chase foes, or bounce along the ground instead and explode, but he still has a practical basic punching set that he can use too.
Want: 20%
It's sad that I'm alone in thinking that Misango's mechanics would have pretty great value in Smash. He can earn buffs laglessly and create walls to play around - that's some pretty cool stuff. Still, there's no denying that he's niche and has very little character besides being a determined wild warrior.
If Misango had been the star of his own game with his mechanics intact, people would rally behind him fairly quickly, I'd think. As it stands, though, he's just not the best representative of the stretchy-arm fighting game genre.
Alt-o-Mania 2020
Chance: 25%
It's not impossible since we don't know who it is. They've been oddly coy about it, even though it could easily just be Springman and they just wanted to warn us ahead of time about where FP6 was coming from. Why bring up the possibility of 15 other candidates at all if they weren't realistically possible? Why not just simply make Springman alone with seven aptly-coloured alts and call it a day, instead of working to make three other unique characters fit into a rig that isn't theirs, with all the quirks they need to still feel like themselves??
Of course, perhaps they'd been planning this the whole time in their attempt to bring ARMS to relevance, hoping to generate fanbases for at least four of ARMS' characters. It could happen.
Want: 1%
...but I won't like it.
Unlike other game series, ARMS doesn't have a long legacy to honor nor a specific group of interchangeable characters. But it does have a variety of playable characters that express themselves via fighting style in unique ways, even though everyone works with the same one-two punch system.
Saying that characters in ARMS are essentially interchangeable feels insulting to a game that had struggled to even carve out a competitive scene for itself, especially on the paradigm-warping grand stage of Super Smash Bros. It's like saying that the roles of these chosen characters are interchangeable - that Ninjara's deceptive defensive plays are the same as Ribbon Girl's unrivaled air mobility, or that Min Min's methods of maintaining charged punches is the same as Springman's. It's like saying that they play the same - and if handled indelicately, that's exactly what people are going to think about ARMS, even with the likes of Helix, Max Brass, and Misango in it.
These aren't legacy characters - they're barely three years old. They don't have long fanbases behind them that'd be pleased to see their historical significances represented. They're characters still trying to carve out their places in the world, each one crafted to stand out on their own merits - and you want them lumped together and classified as essentially the same fighter??
Who exactly would this please, anyway? As has been mentioned, ARMS fans would be happy with just about anyone because it'd still mean that they got a character into Smash. It seems far more likely to me that this would mostly please either the speculators who want the Assist Trophy and Spirit rules broken, or the people who simp Min Min.
Nominations
Gooigi x10
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PeridotGX
Smash Hero
Double the goo, half the Luigi
Chance - 5%. He'd be a really good choice for the second or third arms rep. Not the first, though.
Want: 10%. I didn't use it during the testpunches. I do think it looks kinda cool, though.
All-Might
Chance - 7%. If we aren't getting an upgrade, he's second most likely. My money's on an upgrade, so he isn't too likely.
Want: Abstain. I didn't use him during the testpunch. His design is meh.
Chance - 0%. He's unpopular and insignificant. There's no reason to add him.
Want: Abstain. I don't care about him. I didn't use him during the testpunch.
It's a four-for-1 deal!
Chance - 1%. Think about it. Doing this would be Nintendo saying "the characters in our game are so similar they can be alts of eachother, please buy it!". It would sacrifice personality and uniqueness, and for what?
Chance - 0%. I don't much like the idea. It would be a waste of personality.
Noms: Decidueye x2, PMD x8
Chance - 5%. He'd be a really good choice for the second or third arms rep. Not the first, though.
Want: 10%. I didn't use it during the testpunches. I do think it looks kinda cool, though.
All-Might
Chance - 7%. If we aren't getting an upgrade, he's second most likely. My money's on an upgrade, so he isn't too likely.
Want: Abstain. I didn't use him during the testpunch. His design is meh.
Chance - 0%. He's unpopular and insignificant. There's no reason to add him.
Want: Abstain. I don't care about him. I didn't use him during the testpunch.
It's a four-for-1 deal!
Chance - 1%. Think about it. Doing this would be Nintendo saying "the characters in our game are so similar they can be alts of eachother, please buy it!". It would sacrifice personality and uniqueness, and for what?
Chance - 0%. I don't much like the idea. It would be a waste of personality.
Noms: Decidueye x2, PMD x8
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UserShadow7989
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2007
- Messages
- 314
Helix:
Chance: 15%
As mentioned above, Helix is in an odd place. He's certainly one of the more memorable members of a colorful cast of characters for being what he is (an ARMS Laboratories experiment to create a fighter from scratch), but his main gimmick of being able to stretch and squash his hitbox would be a bit weird to make work in the fast 2d Smash engine compared to the slower and 3d fighter like ARMS since he wouldn't be able to evade attacks or poke out from behind obstructions to launch his own. I could, however, see some fun applications with his long reach and the ability to lean forward to attack while ground-bound foes can't reach his lower body in turn, or squashing down flat to evade projectiles and opponents with similarly audacious reach.
His signature set of ARMS are particularly oddball: a shield that slowly floats low to the ground and blocks hits that would clash with it, a laggy but long-range and lingering freeze ray, and a bouncing 'projectile' add to his bizarre nature and would be fun to toy with in combination with his wobbly and malleable hitbox. As mentioned by ProfPeanut above, though, they don't really convey or properly represent how a lot of the core gameplay exchanges go in ARMS.
Want: 35%
Even if I'm down on how weird he'd be to make work and how he doesn't serve as much of a face for the game, Helix is still a fun character with a design that'd stand out from the rest of the Smash Roster (a tall order) and I'd be genuinely fascinated to see how he'd play in practice if the team could actually make all the above work.
Max Brass:
Chance: 70%
If not Spring Man (the face of the game) or Min Min (effectively the game's most popular character), Max Brass would be an excellent representation of the game and provide a very interesting playstyle as a long-ranged super heavyweight. He appears in the story mode for every character as the final opponent (...barring the game's highest difficulty levels), and has served as the champion for so long that the material his ARMS are made of actually changed to become championship belts. He is the commissioner of the ARMS league, and unlike nearly every other champion/tournament organizer in fighting games, has absolutely no ulterior motives. He just loves the sport that much, and even on defeat, he is a graceful loser who takes his first real loss in stride.
Mechanically he has a lot going on to work with that's much more Smash-friendly than Helix. By charging, he can bulk himself up to increase his power and 'girth' (larger hitboxes), even gaining the ability to shrug off some hits, at the cost of becoming a larger target, an animation playing as he gets the buff that presents a moment of vulnerability, and losing the boost when he's knocked down. Like Spring Man's Second Wind, Max Brass has a secondary ability that kicks in when below a certain health threshold: he gets his aforementioned buff as an always on benefit... for better and for worse, as he will still 'lose' the buff on knockdown, and thus go through the animation again as he rises.
His ARMS are fairly nice to work with, too; the Roaster is a simple and straightforward punch that gains a fire element to it when charged, losing out on control over its flight path after firing compared to its contemporaries for even more damage. This is probably a benefit, as it allows the dev team to implement the long reach of the attack without also applying the ability to curve it mid-flight on top, which would be pretty mean in the context of a 2d fighter. A homing hammer that has a little wind up once it gets in striking distance before it drops on the opponent and a grenade arm that explodes on hit but can be detonated prematurely to harm him round out his kit with a variety of weapon types. Overall he has a lot to work with, an interesting playstyle niche, and can serve as the face of the game well enough given he's the in universe face of the ARMS league itself.
Want: 90%
While he's not my outright favorite, I'd be very happy to see Max Brass join the Smash roster.
Misango:
Chance: 15%
As likely the least or second least popular DLC character, Misango doesn't have a whole lot going for him that other fighters don't in terms of being a representative; he's not particularly lore-important like Max Brass, and he's not super popular like Min Min. What he is is still an interesting fighter with a stance change mechanic he doesn't have direct control over (being able to roll the dice on which of the three he has again by charging or using his second ability), and can create a pillar that acts as a wall for attacks by holding his guard up long enough (changing his mask if he walks into it) and a monopoly on the game's Poison attribute ARMS, each with interesting functional twists (Scorpio flies forward and drops to the ground, chasing foes from there, Glusher bounces like Helix's similar ARM, and Skully is a bird-like skull that flies quickly toward the opponent's position as of the time it was shot for quick interrupts).
He somewhat falls into the same issue Helix does of not strongly representing the game's mechanics when translated to Smash, which combined with not being an especially big stand out in-game or among fans hurts his odds. I do feel his mechanic is easier to make work, however, and he would still be an interesting fighter to play as.
Want: 20%
I'm not nearly as big on Misango as Max Brass, or even Helix, but he'd be fun enough.
Multiple Alts in 1:
Chance: 0.1%
The Koopalings have the advantage of sharing a vehicle that makes up 90% of their model and handles all their attacks. Hero has the advantage of the Dragon Quest protagonists sharing a similar skill set and being silent protagonists in games with comparatively minimal animation. Koopalings are kind of a package deal; having just two of them would feel wrong no matter which you picked, and the Hero is from a series with a long legacy that can't be represented by just one protagonist.
Each character in ARMS is defined heavily by their character specific gimmicks; the easiest example to hammer this point home is Spring Man vs Springtron, the latter being a robotic doppelganger of the former with the same stats, same build, and even same signature ARMS, but they have literal opposite fighting styles. Spring Man has a very simple, newbie-friendly, shonen protagonist-typical mechanic: when his hit points drop below a given threshold, he gets a power boost. The end result is he encourages a rushdown, almost reckless style of play, since getting a few hits on the chin brings you closer to an extra bit of firepower.
Springtron's gimmick relates to his charge: he can release an EMP, and if his opponent is attacking with either arm at the time he releases it, the one(s) in use is(are) disabled for a short period of time, giving him the opportunity to hammer them with impunity while they're unable to guard and have their mobility reduced. He is an incredibly oppressive control character, but if he slips up even once he has no other secondary ability or passive benefit to fall back on, meaning he's also a highly cautious fighter. The end result is despite being a 'clone', his and Spring Man's playstyles are day and night.
While they can in fact use any ARM in the game, it's also worth noting that there's still some tidbits of character even among a given character's signature (starting) 3 ARMS options. For example, Spring Man's Toaster vs Max Brass' Roaster. Two very similar ARMS, the latter being an older version of the former and likely Spring Man trying to stay close the current (and up to the game's plot only) champion by using a similar 'main' ARM. The key difference is the Toaster is very novice friendly, in that you have great control over its travel path after firing, while the Roaster has next to no such control after firing, but hits significantly harder- perfect for a long time veteran who has every reason to be confident he'll hit what he's aiming at. It's not much, but I do feel like the characters would be best represented by having their given signature arms play a more prominent role in their playstyle and as a reference for how they handle in a fight.
The cast's animations and builds vary even in the most similar of cases. For example, Min Min and Ribbon Girl have probably the closest builds of the entire cast aside from Spring Man and Springtron, but Min Min is a stoic fighter with a very practiced martial arts stance and movements, while Ribbon Girl is a dancing idol with floaty, graceful, and flashy movements; having one with the other's animations would feel incredibly wrong, and aiming for a middle ground that has neither would be bland and do next to nothing to really capture the series in a way a fan would want.
Given the lengths Sakurai has gone to get even tiny references, making 'generic ARMS person' would be very off for him, and speaking as a fan, I'd find it incredibly unsatisfying even if it meant that technically all 15 were in; I'd vastly prefer even my least favorite ARMS character as themselves over a generic humanoid frame without personality meant to showcase some of the ARMS.
While Sakurai and his team have made X-in-1 characters twice now, both times were cases where it would be in service to the group the characters belong to and as a nod to the series they're from, while here it would actively work against that. The sheer love he put into showcasing, say, Terry, shows he takes the characters feeling like themselves and being close to their source material very seriously. It'd be a lot of extra modeling, animating, etc to get it to a state where it even look presentable in contrast to the two existing cases, and it's likely to make many fans less happy than more.
Want - 0%
As you can tell by the above, I'm not really keen on it.
Chance: 15%
As mentioned above, Helix is in an odd place. He's certainly one of the more memorable members of a colorful cast of characters for being what he is (an ARMS Laboratories experiment to create a fighter from scratch), but his main gimmick of being able to stretch and squash his hitbox would be a bit weird to make work in the fast 2d Smash engine compared to the slower and 3d fighter like ARMS since he wouldn't be able to evade attacks or poke out from behind obstructions to launch his own. I could, however, see some fun applications with his long reach and the ability to lean forward to attack while ground-bound foes can't reach his lower body in turn, or squashing down flat to evade projectiles and opponents with similarly audacious reach.
His signature set of ARMS are particularly oddball: a shield that slowly floats low to the ground and blocks hits that would clash with it, a laggy but long-range and lingering freeze ray, and a bouncing 'projectile' add to his bizarre nature and would be fun to toy with in combination with his wobbly and malleable hitbox. As mentioned by ProfPeanut above, though, they don't really convey or properly represent how a lot of the core gameplay exchanges go in ARMS.
Want: 35%
Even if I'm down on how weird he'd be to make work and how he doesn't serve as much of a face for the game, Helix is still a fun character with a design that'd stand out from the rest of the Smash Roster (a tall order) and I'd be genuinely fascinated to see how he'd play in practice if the team could actually make all the above work.
Max Brass:
Chance: 70%
If not Spring Man (the face of the game) or Min Min (effectively the game's most popular character), Max Brass would be an excellent representation of the game and provide a very interesting playstyle as a long-ranged super heavyweight. He appears in the story mode for every character as the final opponent (...barring the game's highest difficulty levels), and has served as the champion for so long that the material his ARMS are made of actually changed to become championship belts. He is the commissioner of the ARMS league, and unlike nearly every other champion/tournament organizer in fighting games, has absolutely no ulterior motives. He just loves the sport that much, and even on defeat, he is a graceful loser who takes his first real loss in stride.
Mechanically he has a lot going on to work with that's much more Smash-friendly than Helix. By charging, he can bulk himself up to increase his power and 'girth' (larger hitboxes), even gaining the ability to shrug off some hits, at the cost of becoming a larger target, an animation playing as he gets the buff that presents a moment of vulnerability, and losing the boost when he's knocked down. Like Spring Man's Second Wind, Max Brass has a secondary ability that kicks in when below a certain health threshold: he gets his aforementioned buff as an always on benefit... for better and for worse, as he will still 'lose' the buff on knockdown, and thus go through the animation again as he rises.
His ARMS are fairly nice to work with, too; the Roaster is a simple and straightforward punch that gains a fire element to it when charged, losing out on control over its flight path after firing compared to its contemporaries for even more damage. This is probably a benefit, as it allows the dev team to implement the long reach of the attack without also applying the ability to curve it mid-flight on top, which would be pretty mean in the context of a 2d fighter. A homing hammer that has a little wind up once it gets in striking distance before it drops on the opponent and a grenade arm that explodes on hit but can be detonated prematurely to harm him round out his kit with a variety of weapon types. Overall he has a lot to work with, an interesting playstyle niche, and can serve as the face of the game well enough given he's the in universe face of the ARMS league itself.
Want: 90%
While he's not my outright favorite, I'd be very happy to see Max Brass join the Smash roster.
Misango:
Chance: 15%
As likely the least or second least popular DLC character, Misango doesn't have a whole lot going for him that other fighters don't in terms of being a representative; he's not particularly lore-important like Max Brass, and he's not super popular like Min Min. What he is is still an interesting fighter with a stance change mechanic he doesn't have direct control over (being able to roll the dice on which of the three he has again by charging or using his second ability), and can create a pillar that acts as a wall for attacks by holding his guard up long enough (changing his mask if he walks into it) and a monopoly on the game's Poison attribute ARMS, each with interesting functional twists (Scorpio flies forward and drops to the ground, chasing foes from there, Glusher bounces like Helix's similar ARM, and Skully is a bird-like skull that flies quickly toward the opponent's position as of the time it was shot for quick interrupts).
He somewhat falls into the same issue Helix does of not strongly representing the game's mechanics when translated to Smash, which combined with not being an especially big stand out in-game or among fans hurts his odds. I do feel his mechanic is easier to make work, however, and he would still be an interesting fighter to play as.
Want: 20%
I'm not nearly as big on Misango as Max Brass, or even Helix, but he'd be fun enough.
Multiple Alts in 1:
Chance: 0.1%
The Koopalings have the advantage of sharing a vehicle that makes up 90% of their model and handles all their attacks. Hero has the advantage of the Dragon Quest protagonists sharing a similar skill set and being silent protagonists in games with comparatively minimal animation. Koopalings are kind of a package deal; having just two of them would feel wrong no matter which you picked, and the Hero is from a series with a long legacy that can't be represented by just one protagonist.
Each character in ARMS is defined heavily by their character specific gimmicks; the easiest example to hammer this point home is Spring Man vs Springtron, the latter being a robotic doppelganger of the former with the same stats, same build, and even same signature ARMS, but they have literal opposite fighting styles. Spring Man has a very simple, newbie-friendly, shonen protagonist-typical mechanic: when his hit points drop below a given threshold, he gets a power boost. The end result is he encourages a rushdown, almost reckless style of play, since getting a few hits on the chin brings you closer to an extra bit of firepower.
Springtron's gimmick relates to his charge: he can release an EMP, and if his opponent is attacking with either arm at the time he releases it, the one(s) in use is(are) disabled for a short period of time, giving him the opportunity to hammer them with impunity while they're unable to guard and have their mobility reduced. He is an incredibly oppressive control character, but if he slips up even once he has no other secondary ability or passive benefit to fall back on, meaning he's also a highly cautious fighter. The end result is despite being a 'clone', his and Spring Man's playstyles are day and night.
While they can in fact use any ARM in the game, it's also worth noting that there's still some tidbits of character even among a given character's signature (starting) 3 ARMS options. For example, Spring Man's Toaster vs Max Brass' Roaster. Two very similar ARMS, the latter being an older version of the former and likely Spring Man trying to stay close the current (and up to the game's plot only) champion by using a similar 'main' ARM. The key difference is the Toaster is very novice friendly, in that you have great control over its travel path after firing, while the Roaster has next to no such control after firing, but hits significantly harder- perfect for a long time veteran who has every reason to be confident he'll hit what he's aiming at. It's not much, but I do feel like the characters would be best represented by having their given signature arms play a more prominent role in their playstyle and as a reference for how they handle in a fight.
The cast's animations and builds vary even in the most similar of cases. For example, Min Min and Ribbon Girl have probably the closest builds of the entire cast aside from Spring Man and Springtron, but Min Min is a stoic fighter with a very practiced martial arts stance and movements, while Ribbon Girl is a dancing idol with floaty, graceful, and flashy movements; having one with the other's animations would feel incredibly wrong, and aiming for a middle ground that has neither would be bland and do next to nothing to really capture the series in a way a fan would want.
Given the lengths Sakurai has gone to get even tiny references, making 'generic ARMS person' would be very off for him, and speaking as a fan, I'd find it incredibly unsatisfying even if it meant that technically all 15 were in; I'd vastly prefer even my least favorite ARMS character as themselves over a generic humanoid frame without personality meant to showcase some of the ARMS.
While Sakurai and his team have made X-in-1 characters twice now, both times were cases where it would be in service to the group the characters belong to and as a nod to the series they're from, while here it would actively work against that. The sheer love he put into showcasing, say, Terry, shows he takes the characters feeling like themselves and being close to their source material very seriously. It'd be a lot of extra modeling, animating, etc to get it to a state where it even look presentable in contrast to the two existing cases, and it's likely to make many fans less happy than more.
Want - 0%
As you can tell by the above, I'm not really keen on it.
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GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
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No, literally who isn't counted as a sentence for obvious reasons.
Neosonic97
Smash Journeyman
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That sentence wasn't okay back when we rated Reimu, and it's not okay now.
DaUsername
Smash Ace
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- In that corner over there
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Omastar
Chance: 15%
This guy definitely has a decent fanbase behind him, but I think he might just be too different from everyone else. Extending arms is already a neat gimmick on its own, but adding stretch powers on top of that might make things too complicated. I just feel like Smash would go for one of the more "standard" characters, especially since this is the first one.
Want: 70%
This dude is really cool. He'd be nice to have in Smash, even though he'd probably be OP.
Dat Brass
Chance: 55%
He's pretty important to the game's story, so that's something. Though if Boxart Man wasn't an AT, we wouldn't even be talking about this guy right now. His inclusion would definitely make sense, though.
Want: 55%
I'm perfectly okay with any ARMS character we get. While this guy isn't my first choice, he'd still be cool
One Of The Playable Characters From The Game Known As ARMS
Chance: 5%
This guy's main problem is that he's just kinda forgettable. He doesn't really have much of a fanbase and he wasn't even in the base game. He just kinda...exists.
Want: N/A
I can't care enough about this guy to write two more sentences
Alph Jr.
Chance: 5%
The main point of ARMS is that each character has their own unique gimmick on top of having long arms. So saying that 2 or more characters are interchangeable enough to be alt costumes probably wouldn't be the best idea. A few of the characters are pretty similar though, so I'm not counting it out completely.
Want: N/A
Gordon prediction: 10%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x10
Chance: 15%
This guy definitely has a decent fanbase behind him, but I think he might just be too different from everyone else. Extending arms is already a neat gimmick on its own, but adding stretch powers on top of that might make things too complicated. I just feel like Smash would go for one of the more "standard" characters, especially since this is the first one.
Want: 70%
This dude is really cool. He'd be nice to have in Smash, even though he'd probably be OP.
Dat Brass
Chance: 55%
He's pretty important to the game's story, so that's something. Though if Boxart Man wasn't an AT, we wouldn't even be talking about this guy right now. His inclusion would definitely make sense, though.
Want: 55%
I'm perfectly okay with any ARMS character we get. While this guy isn't my first choice, he'd still be cool
One Of The Playable Characters From The Game Known As ARMS
Chance: 5%
This guy's main problem is that he's just kinda forgettable. He doesn't really have much of a fanbase and he wasn't even in the base game. He just kinda...exists.
Want: N/A
I can't care enough about this guy to write two more sentences
Alph Jr.
Chance: 5%
The main point of ARMS is that each character has their own unique gimmick on top of having long arms. So saying that 2 or more characters are interchangeable enough to be alt costumes probably wouldn't be the best idea. A few of the characters are pretty similar though, so I'm not counting it out completely.
Want: N/A
Gordon prediction: 10%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x10
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Day over.
Rate Gordon Freeman from the Half-Life series.
Tomorrow is the fifth and final day of our ARMS ratings, so predict:
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the crowbar swinging mood:
Rate Gordon Freeman from the Half-Life series.
Tomorrow is the fifth and final day of our ARMS ratings, so predict:
- Dr. Coyle
- Lola Pop
- Springtron
- Concept: Brand New ARMS Character (not one of the 15 playable)
Megadoomer
-----
Some songs to get into the crowbar swinging mood:
Gordon Freeman
Chance: 3%
While Half-Life is one of Valve's most known series, I just don't see Gordon getting in. The fan demand for a Valve character is mainly concentrated on Team Fortress 2, most specificaly Heavy Weapon Guy. The only reason he was even brought up in Smash speculation was because of the VR Half-Lif game that was revealed in 2019, and that was followed by a fake leak about him joining Smash. But hey, Nintendo can always surprise us.
Want: 15%
He's fine, I guess, even if he's nowhere near the best possible fps rep in my opinion. And even in term of Valve characters, I would prefer either Chell or Heavy.
Arms: the last prediction:
Springman's mom: 18%
Phoenix Wright's sister: 4.2%
Springman's science project that her mom made for him: 12% (only as an alt)
Arms 2 Electric boogaloo: 2.1%
Chance: 3%
While Half-Life is one of Valve's most known series, I just don't see Gordon getting in. The fan demand for a Valve character is mainly concentrated on Team Fortress 2, most specificaly Heavy Weapon Guy. The only reason he was even brought up in Smash speculation was because of the VR Half-Lif game that was revealed in 2019, and that was followed by a fake leak about him joining Smash. But hey, Nintendo can always surprise us.
Want: 15%
He's fine, I guess, even if he's nowhere near the best possible fps rep in my opinion. And even in term of Valve characters, I would prefer either Chell or Heavy.
Arms: the last prediction:
Springman's mom: 18%
Phoenix Wright's sister: 4.2%
Springman's science project that her mom made for him: 12% (only as an alt)
Arms 2 Electric boogaloo: 2.1%
waddledeeonredyoshi
Smash Lord
Gordo
Chance: 0.1%
Half-life may be a highly regarded series but its connection to Nintendo is virtually none and the same basically applies to Valve as a whole. FPS games are also still unpopular in Japan and I'm not sure Half-life is an exception. If they're putting in an FPS rep anyway than someone like MC makes more sense because of the stronger bond between companies and Halo's bigger popularity. However, my gut is feeling we aren't getting huge big budget third-parties like these in the pass anyhow.
Want: Abstaining
Dr. Coyle: 18.82%
Lola Pop: 6.19%
Springtron: 15.38%
Arms 2 character: 1.17%
Captain Toad x5
Chance: 0.1%
Half-life may be a highly regarded series but its connection to Nintendo is virtually none and the same basically applies to Valve as a whole. FPS games are also still unpopular in Japan and I'm not sure Half-life is an exception. If they're putting in an FPS rep anyway than someone like MC makes more sense because of the stronger bond between companies and Halo's bigger popularity. However, my gut is feeling we aren't getting huge big budget third-parties like these in the pass anyhow.
Want: Abstaining
Dr. Coyle: 18.82%
Lola Pop: 6.19%
Springtron: 15.38%
Arms 2 character: 1.17%
Captain Toad x5
Kingdom Hearts 3 came out first. Just saying
Chance: .9
And this is being generous. Half-Life Alyx might as well be the closest we're getting to a HL3, so I don't see Gordon coming anytime soon.
Want: Abstain
Never played Half-Life, so don't care. Only know Gordon (or, rather, the series) because of memes.
Dr. Coyle: 20%
Lola Pop: 14%
Springtron: 30%
ARMS 2: 0%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2
Chance: .9
And this is being generous. Half-Life Alyx might as well be the closest we're getting to a HL3, so I don't see Gordon coming anytime soon.
Want: Abstain
Never played Half-Life, so don't care. Only know Gordon (or, rather, the series) because of memes.
Dr. Coyle: 20%
Lola Pop: 14%
Springtron: 30%
ARMS 2: 0%
Noms:
Xion as Sora's Echo Fighter ×3
Sakura Shinguji ×2
Gordon Freeman
Chance: 10%
For my chance score explanation, I'm just gonna post what I wrote when we did the Valve rep rating back in November. Keep in mind that this was after Half-Life: Alyx had been announced so basically nothing has changed since then. I did mention Chell and Heavy, but Gordon is the clear Valve frontrunner in my eyes especially with the TF2 devs not giving ten craps about the game anymore.
Half-Life is probably my favorite single-player FPS series. The gravity gun alone would make Gordon incredibly fun to use plus he'd be able to bring over a ton of other Valve content into Smash as well (Headcrab Mii Hat is basically guaranteed with his inclusion). Only reason this isn't 100% is because Heavy is still my most wanted Valve rep.
ARMS Chance predictions:
Dr. Coyle: 15.00%
Lola Pop: 5.00%
Springtron: 10.00%
New ARMS character: 1.50%
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5
Chance: 10%
For my chance score explanation, I'm just gonna post what I wrote when we did the Valve rep rating back in November. Keep in mind that this was after Half-Life: Alyx had been announced so basically nothing has changed since then. I did mention Chell and Heavy, but Gordon is the clear Valve frontrunner in my eyes especially with the TF2 devs not giving ten craps about the game anymore.
Want: 90%
Half-Life is probably my favorite single-player FPS series. The gravity gun alone would make Gordon incredibly fun to use plus he'd be able to bring over a ton of other Valve content into Smash as well (Headcrab Mii Hat is basically guaranteed with his inclusion). Only reason this isn't 100% is because Heavy is still my most wanted Valve rep.
ARMS Chance predictions:
Dr. Coyle: 15.00%
Lola Pop: 5.00%
Springtron: 10.00%
New ARMS character: 1.50%
Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5
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Sari
they do care they just shifted to do VR for a stint. Valve is interesting in their internal politics. People move from team to team very free form, which tbh is really good for the employees. That being said I expect some TF2 love now that Alyx is done and the numbers of players are still high and rising. Seriously the number is still in the top most played steam games and it has been rising the past few years. Before someone brings up bots, the aimbots that exist to annoy people are a drop in the bucket to be brutally honest of the number of players. And idling for weapon drops does not work for money given that refined metal is essentially worth less than a penny. Play TF2 yall, I still play all the time its my favorite game of all time. So much depth under the hood too. Stump Speech over.
Now then,
5% Chance
Mr Freeman to me makes some sense, I mean Half Life is a huge franchise in terms of its impact. Sari also hits the nail on the head of how big Steam is. Steam is pc gaming, and while the Epic Games store and other companies have tried to make their own launchers, only Epic comes remotely close to Steam and there is a certain game that kinda helped carry them. That being said, Freeman would be a surprising choice to me. I think part of it stems from the fact that Half Life has been so dead that its place in the cultural zeitgeist has been begging for a revival. The closest parallels would be Banjo and K Rool, but they had one thing that until November Mr Freeman did not: a strong smash following. Banjo and K Rool were on peoples wish lists since Melee and support for them for Brawl/4/Ultimate was high. I would put more stock on him for a third fighters pass or a next game (Smash Ultimate Directors Cut).
70% Want
To be brutally honest I do not give two ***** about Half Life. I never got invested in the games. That being said, it means Valve content. I would love a Portal Stage and TF2 content is my dream pick. Next time we rate TF2, I will be giving out a gushing response.
Nominating Rex x5
BowserKing
Smash Lord
I was expecting Half-Life 3 Confirmed Jokes, but anyways, Gordon Freeman
Chance: 10%. Half-Life is quite recognizable due to multiple things, and I think Gordon could have a chance to appear in this game. Thing is, he is not the only Valve Rep that could have a chance, and most likely case, a Team Fortice Rep is more likely, but I think he has a chance.
Want: 50% He would be a fun character to play as, and if he joins the Battle, I would honestly be surprised. Then again, his appearance would help promote the games, but I don't know if there will be a Half-Life 3, but either way, Gordon would be a decent choice for the roaster.
Predictions: Dr.Coyoe, Lola Pop and Spring-Tron (20%) and New Arms Fighter (10%)
Noms: 2 for Gooigi and 3 for Rival Pokémon Trainer
Chance: 10%. Half-Life is quite recognizable due to multiple things, and I think Gordon could have a chance to appear in this game. Thing is, he is not the only Valve Rep that could have a chance, and most likely case, a Team Fortice Rep is more likely, but I think he has a chance.
Want: 50% He would be a fun character to play as, and if he joins the Battle, I would honestly be surprised. Then again, his appearance would help promote the games, but I don't know if there will be a Half-Life 3, but either way, Gordon would be a decent choice for the roaster.
Predictions: Dr.Coyoe, Lola Pop and Spring-Tron (20%) and New Arms Fighter (10%)
Noms: 2 for Gooigi and 3 for Rival Pokémon Trainer
Mushroomguy12
Smash Hero
Half Life
Chance: 0.01%
He's never been on a Nintendo console, which goes for his series as well. In addition, Valve in general has had incredibly minimal connection to Nintendo. Finally, a lot of Valve's games aren't popular in Japan. A lot of people like to claim that some or all of these factors don't matter, but sorry, we've never had a 3rd Party before that hasn't touched Nintendo at all, even Cloud and Joker don't fit into this category. If people can use "precedent" to narrow other characters from DLC, then I see nothing wrong with this criteria.
Want: 25%
He's OK, I guess. There are other characters I'd want before him but he' s not at the bottom of my list. Would kind of prefer that they at least port Half Life to Switch first though before considering him for Smash. (If they could do it for Skyrim, DMC, Bioshock, and other series that formerly never touched Nintendo, not sure what's holding them back for Valve).
Chance: 0.01%
He's never been on a Nintendo console, which goes for his series as well. In addition, Valve in general has had incredibly minimal connection to Nintendo. Finally, a lot of Valve's games aren't popular in Japan. A lot of people like to claim that some or all of these factors don't matter, but sorry, we've never had a 3rd Party before that hasn't touched Nintendo at all, even Cloud and Joker don't fit into this category. If people can use "precedent" to narrow other characters from DLC, then I see nothing wrong with this criteria.
Want: 25%
He's OK, I guess. There are other characters I'd want before him but he' s not at the bottom of my list. Would kind of prefer that they at least port Half Life to Switch first though before considering him for Smash. (If they could do it for Skyrim, DMC, Bioshock, and other series that formerly never touched Nintendo, not sure what's holding them back for Valve).
3DSNinja
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Oct 30, 2018
- Messages
- 1,390
Half Life 3 Confirmed out wait it kinda is crap
Chance:30%: Half-Life defined FPS's for a generation, has a beloved sequel that Sakurai loves, and has a midquel that gave a huge tease towards Half-Life 3 which means yes, it might actually come out. Yes, these games have never been on a Nintendo console, it they are important. PLus, the same applies to Master Chief and Monokuma, and they got good scores. I honestly think Gordon is very likely. Also, again, Sakurai loves Half-Life 2... He also loved Persona 5 and Fatal Fury/KOF.
Want:100%: I love the Half-Life games. They are some of my favorite games ever and I really want them to get more attention. Also, we can get Portal content with this guy, so that's sick. And Half-Life has a great OST, so hey,we got that too.
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5
Chance:30%: Half-Life defined FPS's for a generation, has a beloved sequel that Sakurai loves, and has a midquel that gave a huge tease towards Half-Life 3 which means yes, it might actually come out. Yes, these games have never been on a Nintendo console, it they are important. PLus, the same applies to Master Chief and Monokuma, and they got good scores. I honestly think Gordon is very likely. Also, again, Sakurai loves Half-Life 2... He also loved Persona 5 and Fatal Fury/KOF.
Want:100%: I love the Half-Life games. They are some of my favorite games ever and I really want them to get more attention. Also, we can get Portal content with this guy, so that's sick. And Half-Life has a great OST, so hey,we got that too.
Nominations: Shuichi Saihara x5
DrifloonEmpire
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2019
- Messages
- 2,230
Gordon Freeman
Chance: 2% - Gordon Freeman certainly has the history and impact as an icon of PC gaming that had a lot of influence on the PC market, along with a notable effect on the FPS genre as a whole. So Gordon's former spot as a cultural zeitgeist was very well-earned, and even in it's until-recent dormancy, it has kept a very sizable fanbase. However, the advantages stop there, and there's several reasons why Nintendo more than likely wouldn't give Valve the spot in the fighter's pass. The first is the obvious lack of popularity in Japan for both PC gaming and FPS games, both pillars of the Half Life franchise. And while some of Valve's games saw console releases 10+ years ago, over there it was Master Chief's territory, a character who's more recognizable and desired by Japanese fans, along with being the face of the genre at large. Alongside this, the franchise is just awakening from a long dormancy, and while Alyx was considered successful it certainly isn't too accessible. PC only with required VR, and not even breaking into the top 20 most played Steam games, even at the time of release despite the anticipation. That isn't a good thing, and while they could release a non-VR version later on, and while I respect trying to be a real pioneer for VR, this kind of requirement isn't what you want for a successful revival. I just don't see what Nintendo gains from advertising this kind of game (yes, I know, "Go play Banjo-Kazooie on Xbox", but I don't think most Nintendo fans have gaming PCs and expensive VR headsets on hand). Granted, there's a surprising amount of overlap between Nintendo and Valve fans but it isn't huge, and most of their fan support is concentrated on The Heavy from TF2. plus even then, most of the general Nintendo audience either isn't interested in or simply doesn't know Valve, and while Gordon is certainly famous he's no household name.
There's also the lack of any kind of relationship between Nintendo and Valve. None of their games have been released on Nintendo systems (let alone any Half Life games, despite how easily the Switch could run them), and while there have been a few attempts to collaborate, None of them have resulted in anything. There were a few throughout the Wii era most notably with Gabe Newell flying out to Nintendo HQ, but no kind of partnership was formed. Then there's the Half Life Tactics rumor, where if true, they struck a deal and Valve just....never finished the game. If this actually happened I don't know the specifics, but for a small project like this it isn't exactly the best way to earn a partnership with Nintendo and certainly wouldn't help their relationship.
Overall, while Gordon certainly has the newfound relevance and impact on gaming history, he faces competition from other faces in his genre, a lack of popularity in Japan, and a lack of any kind of relationship with Nintendo. Fan demand is certainly a thing but it can only get you so far, and he's certainly no Ridley, K. Rool, or Banjo.
Want: 5% - While I certainly respect Gordon, much moreso than The Heavy, I have no interest at all in seeing any of Valve's properties in Smash. I don't care about their games, and their lack of Nintendo presence doesn't do them any favors. Not to mention the elitism of a lot of members of the PC community, something I'd rather not see rewarded. And with the remaining five slots, there's just other characters I'd much rather see. That said, the gravity gun would be a fun tool.
Nominations:
Louie x5
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 20.46%
Springtron - 25.67%
Lola Pop - 1.28%
New ARMS character - 1.93%
Chance: 2% - Gordon Freeman certainly has the history and impact as an icon of PC gaming that had a lot of influence on the PC market, along with a notable effect on the FPS genre as a whole. So Gordon's former spot as a cultural zeitgeist was very well-earned, and even in it's until-recent dormancy, it has kept a very sizable fanbase. However, the advantages stop there, and there's several reasons why Nintendo more than likely wouldn't give Valve the spot in the fighter's pass. The first is the obvious lack of popularity in Japan for both PC gaming and FPS games, both pillars of the Half Life franchise. And while some of Valve's games saw console releases 10+ years ago, over there it was Master Chief's territory, a character who's more recognizable and desired by Japanese fans, along with being the face of the genre at large. Alongside this, the franchise is just awakening from a long dormancy, and while Alyx was considered successful it certainly isn't too accessible. PC only with required VR, and not even breaking into the top 20 most played Steam games, even at the time of release despite the anticipation. That isn't a good thing, and while they could release a non-VR version later on, and while I respect trying to be a real pioneer for VR, this kind of requirement isn't what you want for a successful revival. I just don't see what Nintendo gains from advertising this kind of game (yes, I know, "Go play Banjo-Kazooie on Xbox", but I don't think most Nintendo fans have gaming PCs and expensive VR headsets on hand). Granted, there's a surprising amount of overlap between Nintendo and Valve fans but it isn't huge, and most of their fan support is concentrated on The Heavy from TF2. plus even then, most of the general Nintendo audience either isn't interested in or simply doesn't know Valve, and while Gordon is certainly famous he's no household name.
There's also the lack of any kind of relationship between Nintendo and Valve. None of their games have been released on Nintendo systems (let alone any Half Life games, despite how easily the Switch could run them), and while there have been a few attempts to collaborate, None of them have resulted in anything. There were a few throughout the Wii era most notably with Gabe Newell flying out to Nintendo HQ, but no kind of partnership was formed. Then there's the Half Life Tactics rumor, where if true, they struck a deal and Valve just....never finished the game. If this actually happened I don't know the specifics, but for a small project like this it isn't exactly the best way to earn a partnership with Nintendo and certainly wouldn't help their relationship.
Overall, while Gordon certainly has the newfound relevance and impact on gaming history, he faces competition from other faces in his genre, a lack of popularity in Japan, and a lack of any kind of relationship with Nintendo. Fan demand is certainly a thing but it can only get you so far, and he's certainly no Ridley, K. Rool, or Banjo.
Want: 5% - While I certainly respect Gordon, much moreso than The Heavy, I have no interest at all in seeing any of Valve's properties in Smash. I don't care about their games, and their lack of Nintendo presence doesn't do them any favors. Not to mention the elitism of a lot of members of the PC community, something I'd rather not see rewarded. And with the remaining five slots, there's just other characters I'd much rather see. That said, the gravity gun would be a fun tool.
Nominations:
Louie x5
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 20.46%
Springtron - 25.67%
Lola Pop - 1.28%
New ARMS character - 1.93%
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Simnm
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2019
- Messages
- 301
Gordon freeman
Chance:15%
I do think that gordon freeman does have a good case to be in smash as sakurai did praise half life 2 before.i dont think nintendo would add him in though there si still a possibility as i could see deal where valve could put thier games on switch and nintendo would gordon freeman into smash.
Want:60%
I havent played a half life game before.though seeing the protanganist of one the most influential games of all time would be quite hype.
Noms:steve(rerate)×5
Chance:15%
I do think that gordon freeman does have a good case to be in smash as sakurai did praise half life 2 before.i dont think nintendo would add him in though there si still a possibility as i could see deal where valve could put thier games on switch and nintendo would gordon freeman into smash.
Want:60%
I havent played a half life game before.though seeing the protanganist of one the most influential games of all time would be quite hype.
Noms:steve(rerate)×5
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Finally, some good ****ing food
Chance: 1%
I'm giving this chance score because I don't think we're getting a character that has never been on a Nintendo system, from a series that has never been on a Nintendo system, by a developer that has never made games for a Nintendo system. Does Gordon have what it takes to be the first to break that precedent? Sure. Half-Life revolutionized not just FPSes, but the way games are designed as a whole, from physics, to worldbuilding, its a masterclass in game design. ****, Alyx might just be another breakthrough, and if we ever look back from the future to see where VR became viable to make games of the same caliber as the regular ones, it's likely that Alyx will be that milestone. But I honestly don't have the brainpower right now to give a better number of how likely I feel Gordon is, especially given all he's going against. Like amageish once said, you rate an underdog as an underdog, not as if they were already the champ.
Plus, I don't expect big third party characters on Gordon's level, especially if they're Western. People were expecting those since Joker and they haven't panned out so far.
I've seen people say that Heavy is likelier because he has the most fan demand out of the Valve characters. 1) that fan demand is still super small, and 2) it's not fan demand that'll get us a Valve character, that's for sure.
Want: 90%
Gordon would be cool on so many levels. His moveset potential is great, I mean crowbar and Gravity Gun alone is more than enough to be super unique. And we'd get to experience the world of Half-Life with the level of detail and love that Smash gives; that would be extra special with Half-Life, as it's a world we sadly don't get to visit very often.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Dr. Coyle prediction: 22.97%
Lola Pop prediction: 12.51%
Springtron prediction: 5.4%
ARMS 2: 3.08%
Chance: 1%
I'm giving this chance score because I don't think we're getting a character that has never been on a Nintendo system, from a series that has never been on a Nintendo system, by a developer that has never made games for a Nintendo system. Does Gordon have what it takes to be the first to break that precedent? Sure. Half-Life revolutionized not just FPSes, but the way games are designed as a whole, from physics, to worldbuilding, its a masterclass in game design. ****, Alyx might just be another breakthrough, and if we ever look back from the future to see where VR became viable to make games of the same caliber as the regular ones, it's likely that Alyx will be that milestone. But I honestly don't have the brainpower right now to give a better number of how likely I feel Gordon is, especially given all he's going against. Like amageish once said, you rate an underdog as an underdog, not as if they were already the champ.
Plus, I don't expect big third party characters on Gordon's level, especially if they're Western. People were expecting those since Joker and they haven't panned out so far.
I've seen people say that Heavy is likelier because he has the most fan demand out of the Valve characters. 1) that fan demand is still super small, and 2) it's not fan demand that'll get us a Valve character, that's for sure.
Want: 90%
Gordon would be cool on so many levels. His moveset potential is great, I mean crowbar and Gravity Gun alone is more than enough to be super unique. And we'd get to experience the world of Half-Life with the level of detail and love that Smash gives; that would be extra special with Half-Life, as it's a world we sadly don't get to visit very often.
Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Dr. Coyle prediction: 22.97%
Lola Pop prediction: 12.51%
Springtron prediction: 5.4%
ARMS 2: 3.08%
Ninjaed
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Nov 7, 2018
- Messages
- 468
Gordon Freeman
Chance: 1%
I don't see it happening. Half-Life is big, Steam is huge, but even Microsoft could only get B&K thanks to their fan demand and ties to Nintendo. Gordon Freeman has none of that. My head hurts so that'll have to do for now, sorry.
Want: abstain
I played Half-Life and it was great at the time, even though I'm not keen on FPS games. That said, I don't really wish for him to be in smash. Like I said, I'm not keen on FPS, I've many others I'd rather see first, blah blah blah. You know the drill.
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 18%
Lola Pop - 9%
Springtron - 7%
ARMS 2 - 14%
Nominations: D.Va x5
Chance: 1%
I don't see it happening. Half-Life is big, Steam is huge, but even Microsoft could only get B&K thanks to their fan demand and ties to Nintendo. Gordon Freeman has none of that. My head hurts so that'll have to do for now, sorry.
Want: abstain
I played Half-Life and it was great at the time, even though I'm not keen on FPS games. That said, I don't really wish for him to be in smash. Like I said, I'm not keen on FPS, I've many others I'd rather see first, blah blah blah. You know the drill.
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 18%
Lola Pop - 9%
Springtron - 7%
ARMS 2 - 14%
Nominations: D.Va x5
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Calcs coming later today.
Steve and Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party dig past Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable to become first and second, respectively. Rex passes Louie, Decidueye and Meowth and takes fourth place. Decidueye ghosts past Meowth and steals fifth place from him.
The Stretchers, D.Va, and Concept: Upgraded Spirit stretch past 50 noms.
Alex Mason and Nate Adams escape the under 25 club.
Today's new nominees are a rerate of Neku Sakuraba, and Concept: Rocket League rep, both with 5 noms.
warpenguin55
I gotta ask, what's your reason for nominating Rocket League Car?
[Rerate] Steve x130
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x115
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
[Rerate] Rex x110
Decidueye x103
Meowth x101
Louie x100
100 - 51
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Zelda (BotW sequel) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Kratos x70
Dr. Eggman x68
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x57
The Stretchers x55
D.Va x55
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x53
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x50
[Rerate] Lip x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Fulgore x46
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x40
[Rerate] Frisk x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Red (Angry Birds) x35
The Boss (Saints Row) x35
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Terrarian x30
Nate Adams x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Alex Mason x25
Under 25
Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
[Rerate] Captain Toad x23
Gooigi x23
Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Tidus x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Moogle x10
Jin Sakai x10
Shuichi Saihara x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Echo: Xion (Sora) x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Rocket League rep x5
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Echo: 40e x1
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x115
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
[Rerate] Rex x110
Decidueye x103
Meowth x101
Louie x100
100 - 51
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Zelda (BotW sequel) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Kratos x70
Dr. Eggman x68
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x57
The Stretchers x55
D.Va x55
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x53
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x50
[Rerate] Lip x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Fulgore x46
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x40
[Rerate] Frisk x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Red (Angry Birds) x35
The Boss (Saints Row) x35
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Terrarian x30
Nate Adams x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Alex Mason x25
Under 25
Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
[Rerate] Captain Toad x23
Gooigi x23
Rival Pokémon Trainer x22
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Tidus x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Moogle x10
Jin Sakai x10
Shuichi Saihara x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Echo: Xion (Sora) x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Rocket League rep x5
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Echo: 40e x1
Steve and Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party dig past Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable to become first and second, respectively. Rex passes Louie, Decidueye and Meowth and takes fourth place. Decidueye ghosts past Meowth and steals fifth place from him.
The Stretchers, D.Va, and Concept: Upgraded Spirit stretch past 50 noms.
Alex Mason and Nate Adams escape the under 25 club.
Today's new nominees are a rerate of Neku Sakuraba, and Concept: Rocket League rep, both with 5 noms.
warpenguin55
I gotta ask, what's your reason for nominating Rocket League Car?
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warpenguin55
Smash Journeyman
- Joined
- Aug 20, 2018
- Messages
- 490
Can I change that to Rocket League rep instead of the Rocket League Car? Rocket League is decently popular still (I think) which is why I'm noming it.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Okay, it's not too dissimilar so I'll allow it.
Jomosensual
Smash Champion
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2018
- Messages
- 2,014
The man who played God in that one movie
Chance 4 - Positives here are that Half Life is pretty popular. Valve/Steam are pretty well known as well. Gordon would have a pretty fun and likely unique moveset as well. So the negitives. First, we have no PC characters in the game yet. As far as PC gaming goes I think League of Legends is by far the most likely series to be repped so that's a big knock. Valve is also based out of Washington(the state) in the USA, which makes them western developers. The competition for that is really rough and it's likely we get 0 western reps in this pass, which is a shame but it's how it is. Overall theres a lot that should go in the favor for Mr Freeman but there's so much in his way right now that it's tough for me to see this happening. Also competition from his own developers is pretty tough since Heavy from TF2 is one of the most requested characters in Europe right now.
Want 60 - Never touched half life, but I know it's very popular and from what I do know, Gordon looks like he'd be fun to play as. He would be a really good inclusion to the game and a perfect choice for DLC
Predictions
Dr Coyle - 8%
Lola Pop - 2%
Springtron - .5%
Arms 2 rep - 3%
Noms
Stretchers x5
Chance 4 - Positives here are that Half Life is pretty popular. Valve/Steam are pretty well known as well. Gordon would have a pretty fun and likely unique moveset as well. So the negitives. First, we have no PC characters in the game yet. As far as PC gaming goes I think League of Legends is by far the most likely series to be repped so that's a big knock. Valve is also based out of Washington(the state) in the USA, which makes them western developers. The competition for that is really rough and it's likely we get 0 western reps in this pass, which is a shame but it's how it is. Overall theres a lot that should go in the favor for Mr Freeman but there's so much in his way right now that it's tough for me to see this happening. Also competition from his own developers is pretty tough since Heavy from TF2 is one of the most requested characters in Europe right now.
Want 60 - Never touched half life, but I know it's very popular and from what I do know, Gordon looks like he'd be fun to play as. He would be a really good inclusion to the game and a perfect choice for DLC
Predictions
Dr Coyle - 8%
Lola Pop - 2%
Springtron - .5%
Arms 2 rep - 3%
Noms
Stretchers x5
amageish
Smash Master
- Joined
- Jul 21, 2018
- Messages
- 3,558
Gordon Freedman
Chance: 1%. I think his iconic status within his genre could possibly override his lack of popularity within Japan, but the lack of Nintendo relationship with Valve basically kills his chances in my mind. In interviews about Banjo, people from Microsoft, Rare, and Nintendo have all commented on how MineCraft on Switch (and the Nintendo skin pack) paved the way to Banjo happening. Valve and Nintendo, meanwhile, have... attempted agreements that fell through? I doubt Nintendo would call up a company that they have failed to collaborate with before to give it another go for a Smash slot... It's technically possible, but it's not super likely.
Want: Abstain. I, uh, need to play more western games.
Predictions: Dr. Coyle: 40% / Lola Pop = 8% / Springtron = 2% / ARMS 2 = 25%
Noms: Moogle x5
Chance: 1%. I think his iconic status within his genre could possibly override his lack of popularity within Japan, but the lack of Nintendo relationship with Valve basically kills his chances in my mind. In interviews about Banjo, people from Microsoft, Rare, and Nintendo have all commented on how MineCraft on Switch (and the Nintendo skin pack) paved the way to Banjo happening. Valve and Nintendo, meanwhile, have... attempted agreements that fell through? I doubt Nintendo would call up a company that they have failed to collaborate with before to give it another go for a Smash slot... It's technically possible, but it's not super likely.
Want: Abstain. I, uh, need to play more western games.
Predictions: Dr. Coyle: 40% / Lola Pop = 8% / Springtron = 2% / ARMS 2 = 25%
Noms: Moogle x5
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,434
Valve can't count to 3
Chance: 7%
I've been going back and forth on Gordon Freeman. While he has no Nintendo History and FPS games are not popular in Japan, Sari did bring up some really good points, such as Steam being recognizable in many different parts of the world and Sakurai even mentioning and praising Half-Life. That is enough to boost his chances a bit in my book. Plus, Half-Life is very important to the game industry, which gives it some merit and makes it something that would catch Sakurai's eye.
But no matter how I approach this, I'm still not confident in his chances. Even with the success of the Switch and many 3rd party companies, even ones who rarely if ever put their games on a Nintendo console, making their games for the Switch, it's up in the air if Valve will ever consider even porting their games over to the Switch. Besides making their iconic games compatible with the Xbox One, Valve seems to be in their own world these days. Despite Gabe Newell once stating that he would allow a character in Smash, overall, Valve isn't actively playing ball with others and Nintendo has plenty of other big fish to catch.
Want: 80%
The idea of a Valve rep is so neat and it would be nice to get PC representation. Valve is definitely big enough of an entity to deserve a rep and Half-Life being the iconic and great game it is, is the game I would probably choose to be the main Valve series represented. Gordon is a cool character with some interesting moveset potential and overall he would be the type of character to break the internet. Maybe not to the extent that Waluigi or Master Chief would, but he is one of those gaming icons that is so legendary that his inclusion in Smash would make it a big event.
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 35%
Lola Pop - 10%
Springtron - 20%
New Arms rep - 5% (The fact that they specifically showed the cast of the first game kills this for me)
Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x5
Chance: 7%
I've been going back and forth on Gordon Freeman. While he has no Nintendo History and FPS games are not popular in Japan, Sari did bring up some really good points, such as Steam being recognizable in many different parts of the world and Sakurai even mentioning and praising Half-Life. That is enough to boost his chances a bit in my book. Plus, Half-Life is very important to the game industry, which gives it some merit and makes it something that would catch Sakurai's eye.
But no matter how I approach this, I'm still not confident in his chances. Even with the success of the Switch and many 3rd party companies, even ones who rarely if ever put their games on a Nintendo console, making their games for the Switch, it's up in the air if Valve will ever consider even porting their games over to the Switch. Besides making their iconic games compatible with the Xbox One, Valve seems to be in their own world these days. Despite Gabe Newell once stating that he would allow a character in Smash, overall, Valve isn't actively playing ball with others and Nintendo has plenty of other big fish to catch.
Want: 80%
The idea of a Valve rep is so neat and it would be nice to get PC representation. Valve is definitely big enough of an entity to deserve a rep and Half-Life being the iconic and great game it is, is the game I would probably choose to be the main Valve series represented. Gordon is a cool character with some interesting moveset potential and overall he would be the type of character to break the internet. Maybe not to the extent that Waluigi or Master Chief would, but he is one of those gaming icons that is so legendary that his inclusion in Smash would make it a big event.
Predictions:
Dr. Coyle - 35%
Lola Pop - 10%
Springtron - 20%
New Arms rep - 5% (The fact that they specifically showed the cast of the first game kills this for me)
Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x5
ProfPeanut
Smash Ace
- Joined
- Oct 1, 2008
- Messages
- 727
The Right Man in the Wrong Place
Chance: 25%
Back to this chestnut again, except hey, Gordon Freeman hasn't been explicitly deconfirmed this time! Not to mention, a Half-Life game actually released - pretty notable progress, considering the state of the franchise before then.
Half-Life's influence on FPSs needs little introduction, and Sakurai is very likely aware of the details. And yet, Valve still hasn't completed any ports of their games to Nintendo systems - their closest link is a bridge construction game with Portal characters, and that was made by a different company. Officially, Half-Life hasn't made any appearances on a Nintendo platform, which makes justifying Gordon's spot extremely difficult.
This is sort of the problem that Smash has to deal with in terms of its "representing video game history" ideal - a lot of the biggest games never touched a NIntendo platform. It's just left to good faith that big-enough games inevitably make the jump, like what Bioshock and Borderlands just did earlier this week. That's right, both Big Daddy and Handsome Jack are more eligible for Smash than Gordon Freeman, and that's a depressing fact in the grand scheme of things.
That's not to say that the situation would be vastly improved had Valve actually completed something when Nintendo invited them to make a Switch game. The history of Nintendo remains vastly divorced from the evolution of the FPS - the Metroid Prime series was developed by an American Studio, and Splatoon was born essentially all on its own. Gordon Freeman's invitation rests almost solely on Nintendo's desire to shake hands with Valve, and that's not something that can be solidly proven based on the kind of hospitality they likely show to every big potential third-party developer.
Want: 55%
It's hard to generate genuine excitement when I've never really played any of the Half-Life games,but the historicity is undeniably worthy of representation. It'd be nice to see Nintendo recognize it.
Nominations
x5 Gooigi
Chance: 25%
Back to this chestnut again, except hey, Gordon Freeman hasn't been explicitly deconfirmed this time! Not to mention, a Half-Life game actually released - pretty notable progress, considering the state of the franchise before then.
Half-Life's influence on FPSs needs little introduction, and Sakurai is very likely aware of the details. And yet, Valve still hasn't completed any ports of their games to Nintendo systems - their closest link is a bridge construction game with Portal characters, and that was made by a different company. Officially, Half-Life hasn't made any appearances on a Nintendo platform, which makes justifying Gordon's spot extremely difficult.
This is sort of the problem that Smash has to deal with in terms of its "representing video game history" ideal - a lot of the biggest games never touched a NIntendo platform. It's just left to good faith that big-enough games inevitably make the jump, like what Bioshock and Borderlands just did earlier this week. That's right, both Big Daddy and Handsome Jack are more eligible for Smash than Gordon Freeman, and that's a depressing fact in the grand scheme of things.
That's not to say that the situation would be vastly improved had Valve actually completed something when Nintendo invited them to make a Switch game. The history of Nintendo remains vastly divorced from the evolution of the FPS - the Metroid Prime series was developed by an American Studio, and Splatoon was born essentially all on its own. Gordon Freeman's invitation rests almost solely on Nintendo's desire to shake hands with Valve, and that's not something that can be solidly proven based on the kind of hospitality they likely show to every big potential third-party developer.
Want: 55%
It's hard to generate genuine excitement when I've never really played any of the Half-Life games,but the historicity is undeniably worthy of representation. It'd be nice to see Nintendo recognize it.
Nominations
x5 Gooigi
Sid-cada
Smash Lord
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2013
- Messages
- 1,784
Gordon Freeman
Chance - 0,05% - It's one thing to have no games on a system, it's another to never have your company on a system. On top of being western owned, this is a big death kneel for most characters. While some special circumstances may get him in due to Half-Life being Half-Life, it's not likely at all for this to be made.
Want - 40% - Eh, not interested due to lack of familiarity. I'd rather have something that at least appeared on a Nintendo console.
Nominations
Lip X5
Chance - 0,05% - It's one thing to have no games on a system, it's another to never have your company on a system. On top of being western owned, this is a big death kneel for most characters. While some special circumstances may get him in due to Half-Life being Half-Life, it's not likely at all for this to be made.
Want - 40% - Eh, not interested due to lack of familiarity. I'd rather have something that at least appeared on a Nintendo console.
Nominations
Lip X5
- Joined
- Aug 10, 2011
- Messages
- 34,013
- Location
- This Thread
- NNID
- OpossumGuy
- 3DS FC
- 4742-4911-3431
- Switch FC
- SW 2859 6322 5208
It's also important to note that Half-Life isn't completely unknown in Japan. Sakurai gave HL2 glowing praise, and Japan even got an exclusive official Half-Life 2 arcade game, Half-Life 2: Survivor.
GoodGrief741
Smash Legend
- Joined
- Sep 22, 2012
- Messages
- 10,169
Sorry, this took much longer than expected. I actually had the calcs done yesterday, just needed to run the ones for the ARMS day, and all of a sudden my computer decides to stop working. But - they're done now, so here you go.
Extra noms and where to find them
amageish
15
Artix
15
Awakining
5
Verde Coeden Scalesworth
5
BowserKing
5
DanganZilla5
35
DaUsername
92
Delzethin
5
Jomosensual
10
Nemuresu
10
Perkilator
15
Ridrool64
10
Sari
15
Troykv
15
waddledeeonredyoshi
5
Wunderwaft
15
Aaand it ****ing crashed again and I lost the ARMS ratings, good thing I managed to post them.
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep
11.11% Chance - 20.57% Want
Winners of predictions were
amageish
and
BowserKing
by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 10.00%
This is quite a surprise to me, but this is the least wanted concept now.
Baldi
0.48% Chance - 3.14% Want
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a near-exact 0.50%. That means ten extra noms for you!
Baldi deservedly earns the spot of the least wanted character, but the least likely spot eludes him. But I have to mention that without a pair of... outlying scores, Baldi would have a 0.80% want and a perfect 0 for chance - which is just more fitting in my humble opinion.
Junko & Monokuma
11.64% Chance - 50.25% Want
Winner of predictions was
Jomosensual
with a precise 12.00%
Concept: No third parties in this Pass
6.74% Chance - 23.76% Want
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a precise 7.00%
This day more than most people just rated chance what they felt for want. For the grand majority, a high chance score corresponded with a high want score and a low chance score with a low want score.
Kasumi
10.79% Chance - 39.09% Want
Winner of predictions was
Verde Coeden Scalesworth
with a precise 10.00%
Terra Branford
8.03% Chance - 65.24% Want
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with 7.81%
Brian
1.02% Chance - 24.50% Want
Winners of predictions were
amageish
and
DanganZilla5
with a near-exact 1.00%. And that's 10 extra noms for the both of you, congrats!
And while Brian isn't breaking any records either, I want to point out that he only had a single score above 1% for chance, and that if you take that out he gets a 0.38% (that's even lower than Baldi!!)
Helix
14.98% Chance - 51.00% Want
Winners of predictions were
DanganZilla5
Sari
and
DaUsername
with a near-exact 15.00%. Ten extra noms for the three of you! And I gotta say, DanganZilla my man you are getting 'em all!
Max Brass
31.39% Chance - 54.44% Want
Winner of predictions was
Ridrool64
with 30.69%
Misango
4.40% Chance - 27.95% Want
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 3.92%
And Misango is the least wanted ARMS fighter.
Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts
33.71% Chance - 38.79% Want
Winners of predictions were
Perkilator
Jomosensual
and
DaUsername
with a precise 35.00%
11.11% Chance - 20.57% Want
Winners of predictions were
amageish
and
BowserKing
by virtue of being the highest prediction, with a precise 10.00%This is quite a surprise to me, but this is the least wanted concept now.
Baldi
0.48% Chance - 3.14% Want
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a near-exact 0.50%. That means ten extra noms for you!Baldi deservedly earns the spot of the least wanted character, but the least likely spot eludes him. But I have to mention that without a pair of... outlying scores, Baldi would have a 0.80% want and a perfect 0 for chance - which is just more fitting in my humble opinion.
Junko & Monokuma
11.64% Chance - 50.25% Want
Winner of predictions was
Jomosensual
with a precise 12.00%Concept: No third parties in this Pass
6.74% Chance - 23.76% Want
Winner of predictions was
DanganZilla5
with a precise 7.00%This day more than most people just rated chance what they felt for want. For the grand majority, a high chance score corresponded with a high want score and a low chance score with a low want score.
Kasumi
10.79% Chance - 39.09% Want
Winner of predictions was
Verde Coeden Scalesworth
with a precise 10.00%Terra Branford
8.03% Chance - 65.24% Want
Winner of predictions was
Sari
with 7.81%Brian
1.02% Chance - 24.50% Want
Winners of predictions were
amageish
and
DanganZilla5
with a near-exact 1.00%. And that's 10 extra noms for the both of you, congrats!And while Brian isn't breaking any records either, I want to point out that he only had a single score above 1% for chance, and that if you take that out he gets a 0.38% (that's even lower than Baldi!!)
Helix
14.98% Chance - 51.00% Want
Winners of predictions were
DanganZilla5
Sari
and
DaUsername
with a near-exact 15.00%. Ten extra noms for the three of you! And I gotta say, DanganZilla my man you are getting 'em all!Max Brass
31.39% Chance - 54.44% Want
Winner of predictions was
Ridrool64
with 30.69%Misango
4.40% Chance - 27.95% Want
Winner of predictions was
waddledeeonredyoshi
with 3.92%And Misango is the least wanted ARMS fighter.
Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts
33.71% Chance - 38.79% Want
Winners of predictions were
Perkilator
Jomosensual
and
DaUsername
with a precise 35.00%Extra noms and where to find them
amageish
15
Artix
15
Awakining
5
Verde Coeden Scalesworth
5
BowserKing
5
DanganZilla5
35
DaUsername
92
Delzethin
5
Jomosensual
10
Nemuresu
10
Perkilator
15
Ridrool64
10
Sari
15
Troykv
15
waddledeeonredyoshi
5
Wunderwaft
15Aaand it ****ing crashed again and I lost the ARMS ratings, good thing I managed to post them.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Mar 5, 2019
- Messages
- 2,434
Holy ****. What are the odds of this happening?Sorry, this took much longer than expected. I actually had the calcs done yesterday, just needed to run the ones for the ARMS day, and all of a sudden my computer decides to stop working. But - they're done now, so here you go.
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep
11.11% Chance - 20.57% Want
Winners of predictions were
This is quite a surprise to me, but this is the least wanted concept now.
Baldi
0.48% Chance - 3.14% Want
Winner of predictions was
Baldi deservedly earns the spot of the least wanted character, but the least likely spot eludes him. But I have to mention that without a pair of... outlying scores, Baldi would have a 0.80% want and a perfect 0 for chance - which is just more fitting in my humble opinion.
Junko & Monokuma
11.64% Chance - 50.25% Want
Winner of predictions was
Concept: No third parties in this Pass
6.74% Chance - 23.76% Want
Winner of predictions was
This day more than most people just rated chance what they felt for want. For the grand majority, a high chance score corresponded with a high want score and a low chance score with a low want score.
Kasumi
10.79% Chance - 39.09% Want
Winner of predictions was
Terra Branford
8.03% Chance - 65.24% Want
Winner of predictions was
Brian
1.02% Chance - 24.50% Want
Winners of predictions were
And while Brian isn't breaking any records either, I want to point out that he only had a single score above 1% for chance, and that if you take that out he gets a 0.38% (that's even lower than Baldi!!)
Helix
14.98% Chance - 51.00% Want
Winners of predictions were
Max Brass
31.39% Chance - 54.44% Want
Winner of predictions was
Misango
4.40% Chance - 27.95% Want
Winner of predictions was
And Misango is the least wanted ARMS fighter.
Concept: ARMS rep has different characters as alts
33.71% Chance - 38.79% Want
Winners of predictions were
Extra noms and where to find them
Aaand it ****ing crashed again and I lost the ARMS ratings, good thing I managed to post them.