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I've missed the rest of the ARMStrevaganza, but I will edit in my rundown of the rest of the characters and concepts in a spoiler box below. I include chance scores to do the whole “Adds up to 100% thing” (Although due to the possibility of some form of character alts being 10% imo, it doesn’t exactly) In fact, the total chances of the characters comes down to 117%
Scores in this are useless but I will give my rundown of chance scores as well for comparison.
Springman to me gets a 20% chance. Yes, the reveal so far is weird, but so is this time. Furthermore, this character would be the first AT to promote in the same game, which is an event that would demand more explanation than “ok here’s his model enjoy”. Maybe they didn’t have enough time or resources for a trailer to showcase the reveal, maybe they wanted to reveal it this way to segue into an actual reveal later. Heck, maybe Spring Man’s design does indeed take from an expansion or ARMS2 and the model would be a spoiler. To say the reveal immediately points to the main character not being the pick, when that main character would break a fan rule in the first place is weird, so I think Spring Man might still very well be the pick.
However, the reveal does knock down the possibility enough for me to think that Spring Man being the pick is still “only“ a 1/5 chance
Ribbon Girl however, follows right behind him with a 15% chance for me, exchanging main character status for other perks, such as I think more popularity, a more defined playstyle with her jumps and the AT hassle being avoided entirely, as well as explaining why the reveal “wasn’t just Spring Man”
I also want to add that maybe she is an Echo fighter, and the pass exists of Spring Man as the main character, but with a Ribbon Girl Echo. I do not believe in alts, the two are not similar enough for that. (The only characters who are are Spring Man and Spring-Tron, as explained below).
Ninjara gets a 2.5% for me. In my opinion, he has little to add to the table that Ribbon Girl and Spring Man do not, being the third wheel to a trio that throughout most material of the game is not even a trio. On top of that, his gimmick is so generic that it does not add to the ARMS gameplay like Ribbon Girl’s jumps do, as well as being generic in a Smash-context that already features Sheik and Greninja. I see little reason for the team to pick Ninjara over Ribbon Girl, who eclipses him in promotional material, popularity and gameplay. And yet, his stoic demeanor and slouchy ninja-dash prevents him from being an alt imo.
Min-Min for me falls in the category fan-favorite, along with Twintelle. While I believe Spring Man and Ribbon Girl to be likelier than Min-Min, she follows suit with a 15% chance. You know the drill, she has measurable popularity through Party Crash, she has a unique playstyle thanks to the Dragon Arm, she might be easier to implement in Smash through her kicking abilities possibly accounting for some neccesary short range moves.
Master Mummy gets a 2.5%. This at first was slightly higher than Ninjara for his more unique build. This Glacier-like build could help balance the ARMS mechanic. That said, there is another glacierweight in ARMS that is more relevant, popular etc. But, if they want a slow and immobile character for balancing purposes, there’s less choices for that than for a general “quick and light” fighter. (Although Master Mummy is at the bottom of the queue for the heavyweights availible.)
....one of the fighters eclipsing him being Mechannica. Mechannica’s, well, mechanics, fit better in Smash. Her float and rocket boosters is a way to capture the 3D nature of ARMS by giving more mobility in the 2D space of Smash, her mechanical ARMS mean that they can bring in an ARMS swapping mechanic without hands suddenly being replaced and I have the feeling that the mech girl is more popular than the mummy. However, the true champion has yet to come, so Mechanica gets a 5% chance for me.
The same reasonings for Min-Min apply to Twintelle, for the same 15% chance. She exchanges “proven” popularity with mechanically more basic ARMS and trades kicks for hands that can grab ledges and hold items, in case that is a boon. No, “this fighter’s arms can extend” does not deconfirm her, she is still in the picture, her hair are her arms (as in weaponry), no lie there.
Byte & Barq is the character I’m comfortably giving a 1% chance. His mechanic of a duo fighter either overshadows the concept of the ARMS game itself too much, or gets incorporated so little that he becomes a simple middleweigh-ish character that doesn’t stand on its own.
Kid Cobra gets a 2.5% with the same issue as Ninjara. While his slithery persona is more unique in both gameplay and visual, Kid Cobra for the rest is merely one of the fifteen, with Ninjara at least being base game and getting the nod as Spirit.
Helix I give 5% chance, because he has some things that make him stand out from the crowd. Not only does he have a popularity that sets him apart from the other fighters, he also has a unique mechanic that makes sense in the playstyle of ARMS and thus could justify picking a Dark Horse candidate, along with his base game status and popularity.
Max Brass I think has a 10% chance, being among the frontrunners in this regard. Not only does he have relevance throughout the game by being a boss, his glacier-weight status also gives him an edge over other characters for balance reasons: There are many possible picks for a medium-weight, middling speed hybrid zoner, but only one real possibility for a glacierweight that trades heavyweight power for The Range. He’s also decently popular, so he makes for a compelling dark horse pick.
Misango is the other character I’m giving 1%. His presence in the game and the community is simply not enough to account for his too complicated playstyle.
The concept of alts I give a solid 10%. Yes, most of this is based on Springtron, but I can see Ribbon Girl and Spring Man being added as a duo as well. I’m not fond of the idea of a Hero, and I don’t think that will happen either. Either it’s Springman + Spring-Tron, or Springman + Ribbon Girl. No fuss, no spin beyond that.
Arthur Donan Coyle
Chance: 10%
As far as Dark Horse DLC ARMS characters go, she rules the roost along with Max Brass. This is thanks to her popularity, her lore relevance (being the boss in high difficulty ARMS Tournaments and having connections to most of the side characters in the game in ARMS Laboratorium). Not only that, but her gimmicks are the perfect blend of non-intrusive to the core ARMS gameplay and uniqueness. Unlike the more out there concepts like Byte and Barq's, Helix' or Misango's, Coyle's mechanics of gaining an extra ARM when charging and float perfectly complement the ARMS gameplay and makes for some great mini-concepts in for example Smash attacks. On top of that, Hedlok could play a big role in her moveset.
Her mad scientist nature also gives her a visually interesting way to bring in an ARMS swapping mechanic. While for others it might look awkward to suddenly have a different hand, Coyle’s more mechanical nature means it’s less jarring for her to have her gizmos swap around different gloves.
Want: 80%
Female villain, interesting moveset as outlined above and to be honest one of the best character designs ARMS has to offer, both in visual design and character.
Pop-U-Lar
Chance: 2.5%
Some popularity, but overall does not make an impact big enough on the game to justify picking her over a more popular break-out star or someone ing relevant to ARMS beyond being in it. Puffing up to block hits is also not a mechanic I can se meshing well with the general ARMS mechanics.
Want: 10%
She's such a random pick, which has both boons as curses. I'm not a particular fan of her design and she doesn't strike me as the person to represent ARMS as a game as a whole.
Tron Bonne
Chance: 10%
Strictly speaking as a stand-alone character, a robot clone would be a poor choice to represent the ARMS games with (and I’d give him a 1% for that purpose) As a Wireframe-like alternate for Springman, I can see it going either way. Since I judge Spring Man's chances to be quite high, Tron-Boy gets a fraction of that chance score as well. Overall I'm not in favor of the ARMS-alt bonanza idea, but if anyone can pull it off, it's Spring-Tron getting in as a treat.
(This is why the characters don’t add up to hundred, I’m accounting for alts for Spring-Tron) (Spring-Tron stand-alone is 1%)
Want: 20%
As standalone, probably one of the worst picks. As an alt to spice up a Spring Man-only slot? Count me in.
ARMS 2 Character
Chance: 0%
Historically, Smash has never been the series to jump the gun with new characters. ARMS didn't get in thr base game, Rex was claimed to have missed the cut-off, and even the occasional DLC pick whose game didn't release when the roster was decided was not only picked for that novelty purpose, but also has had its game out well before release of the character, on top of being from established series.
If Splatoon's immense success didn't prevent it from being Mii Costumed in Smash 4's DLC run (as well as being inspired by mostly the original game instead of the sequel in its eventual playable appearance in Smash Ultimate, I deem an ARMS2 promotional rep to be highly unlikely. Especially considering the fact that the original characters would probably still return in a sequel and that the reveal very specifically showed the fifteen characters that have already been rated.
The best case scenario for this concept is that ARMS2 is a near-shadow drop like Paper Mario Origami King has been, but even then I think a redesigned Spring Man is much more likely than a character still unknown.
Want: 0%
How can I rate when I haven't seen the character? Why would I be attached to a character that does not exist yet?
Dr. Coyle
Chance: 5%
Want: 40%
She's cool. Her place in the lore gives her a token 5% for me, but realistically it won't be her. I'd love to finally get an actual mad scientist though. That and more female villains is always a nice boon, since we only really have Dark Samus and Wendy.
Lola Pop
Chance: 1%
Want: 90%
Lola's a very fun character. Bright and colorful, has unique mobility options, and has a more defensive take on an ARMS moveset. The fact that she had to have numerous redesigns because NoA kept rejecting her is still hilarious to me because coulrophobia isn't really a thing in Japan and the devs thought that was funny. However, due to her being relatively unimportant I can't give her higher than the token "she was on the roster image during the announcement" percent. That and her theme is amazing and the best song in the game.
Springtron
Chance as a unique fighter: 0%
Chance as an alternate costume for Spring Man a la Alph for Olimar: 70%
Want as a unique fighter: 0%
Want as an alt for Spring Man: 100%
I'm assuming we're rating him as a unique fighter, so take the former numbers instead of the latter for tallying, but for the sake of context I also gave ratings for him as a costume for Spring Man.
On his own, Springtron is the one ARMS character on the image that I'm 100% confident WON'T happen. Like, he just won't. There's zero reason to pick him over Spring Man. It's like adding Evil Ryu over Ryu. And frankly I wouldn't want it either. He's just Spring Man but devoid of any personality beyond being a generic evil robot.
That being said, I'd absolutely love for him to be added as a set of alts for Spring Man, as he's the one ARMS character this would work really well with. He's literally Spring Man's robotic copy. And hey, the more the merrier.
ARMS 2:
Double Zeroes.
It's not happening. They showed the options. Being someone else would constitute something pretty close to false advertising. There's also like no evidence ARMS 2 is even a thing yet. Who would this character be for? You'd alienate ARMS fans by adding in someone else after teasing any of the fifteen characters they actually know, and you'd alienate everyone else with the biggest instance of adding a promotional character with no other valid contributions. The absolute most I could see if "ARMS 2" is real is getting an alt set of the chosen character in a hypothetical ARMS 2 outfit. That's it.
I remember discussing BD in here at some point but I can't remember if that was a rating(if it was it happened a long while ago) or if it was a post direct reactions day
I haven't ever participated in one of these, and I missed the rest of the ARMS event, but I HAVE to weigh in on the current batch.
Dr. Coyle Chance: 35%
Want: 100%
Coyle is in an odd place. She is by far my favorite ARMS character, my eternal main, so she's an easy 100% want. She's a female villain, a mad scientist, has several unique gameplay hooks, one of the most important lore figures in ARMS, and is an immediate standout in terms of design, standing out from the existing Smash cast and showing off ARMS' character designs beautifully. That said.... her addition would break a BIG unspoken rule of Smash additions: the notion that an IP MUST have its protagonist as the first representative of it, regardless of if they're the best choice or not. I absolutely want her in, and I think she'd be by far the most unique addition they could add, but it's definitely not a sure thing, sadly.
Lola Pop Chance: 5% Want: 1%
Lola is, well.... out of all the ARMS characters, she's certainly one of them. I don't HATE Lola, but she's not really one of my favorites and her gimmick isn't really conducive to Smash, nor would she be a good representative of the game. Lola has the least lore importance of any character in the entirety of ARMS, and isn't (in my experience) all that popular of a character either. I won't be ANGRY if she gets in, but I don't think she has the credentials.
Springtron Chance: 20% Want: 15%
Springtron has a bad reputation as the closest thing to a clone ARMS has, and while he DOES share quite a lot with his flesh and bone counterpart, he actually PLAYS significantly differently, with his abilities resulting in a FAR more difficult to master playstyle than the made-for-beginners Spring Man. Unfortunately, the optics of him borrowing so much from Spring Man understandably damages his reputation a lot, and I do have to admit he would be the ONLY ARMS fighter who would actually work for the accursed Alt Theory, since he does animate just like his counterpart (barring his few unique animations). I do like Springtron, and he is my secondary in ARMS, but I wouldn't want him in Smash, per se, nor do I think he has much of a shot outside of MAYBE being a "premium" costume for Spring Man if he's our rep.
ARMS 2 Rep Chance: 0.5%
Want: 0%
No. I want ARMS 2, but I don't want it to supersede getting an actual established ARMS fighter in Smash. This option would make the original teaser outright deceptive, and that's not the sort of thing Sakurai does (barring obvious jokes like ZSS being cut in 4).
Spring Man: I do genuinely believe there's a chance he gets upgraded from Assist, but I have a nagging feeling he won't; I don't think the original teaser would make a big deal out of the predictable protagonist.
Ribbon Girl: Same boat as Spring Man, I don't really think the tease would be structured as it was for one who is essentially sharing the protagonist role.
Ninjara: please don't.
Min Min: One of the more popular characters, and one who could easily have a moveset fleshed out. Not my first pick, but she'd be fine.
Master Mummy: Among my favorite characters in the roster, and a classical heavyweight, but his gimmick of healing when shielding seems a complete counterpoint to Smash shielding, and for that reason I don't think he's very likely.
Helix: Another favorite of mine, and one of the most memorable and unique ARMS fighters there is! ...too bad his gimmicks really only work in a 3D space, and his signature ARMS don't represent the game well in a vacuum like Smash.
MAX BRASS: My tertiary main and previously my primary main, as well as one of the biggest personalities in the game, Brass would be a PERFECT addition to Smash and a great representative of ARMS; if we can't get Coyle, he's my next choice in a heartbeat.
The Rest Of The Roster: In the interest of brevity I will not detail everyone individually, because my opinion on the remaining characters is basically "they would be fine as reps, and I like them, but not to the extent of others."
Alt Theory: no. this theory is asinine and insulting to ARMS fans.
Chance: 15%
Well then. . . there isn't really much to write about her, I think. One the one hand, she's a character that wasn't even in the base-game, and was only added in later through updates. In terms of the series' lore, she is what could be considered the main antagonist - but seeing as ARMS isn't exactly a story-heavy game, I don't think that that means much. Basically, I think she has a somewhat better shot than most of the characters that aren't already included in Smash as Spirits, but that still doesn't make her extremely likely.
Want: 20%
Having a female villain in Smash would be a neat change of pace (Dark Samus is something I'd consider to only sort of count as this). But I'm not really the biggest fan of her design.
This crazy Clown just digs this tune!
Chance: 3%
This rating is simple. She's just one character out of many, and doesn't really stand out from the rest of the ARMS cast in any meaningful way. I'm having a hard time seeing her make it in.
Want: 35%
I'll admit, the main reason why I'm giving her such a relatively high want score is a very simple one. Namely, during an interview with the producers regarding the somewhat negative feedback that Lola Pop got in the US due to the phobia of clowns, the developers reacted with surprise, and saying something along the lines of "feeling like they had just learned a weakness of Americans". That alone would make it pretty funny to see her in Smash to me.
He's Spring-Man AND a robot? Capcom better contact their lawyers!
Chance: 0%
Another simple rating. As others have already said, I don't see Spring-Tron making it in, but not Spring-Man. There's not much else to it.
Want: 0%
Yeah, nah. I don't really have an interest in some replica robot making it in over more interesting characters.
ARMS 2: The ARMening
Chance: 0%
The announcement for this upcoming character featured music, background material, and wording referring exclusively to ARMS, and not some hypothetical sequel. This entire theory hinges on the chance of an ARMS sequel even being in the works, and we have heard of no such thing yet.
Want: 0%
Not interested. I'd really rather see characters that, y'know, I've actually at least seen somewhere before their inclusion in Smash.
Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily first-party x5 (or x10, if the five automatic bonus noms from the last ARMS day are in effect today as well).
Chances: 40%. Certainly the next highest after the mascots, only with Max Brass as otherwise competition for a spot. She's extremely important to the series, and since there's no actual protagonist(Max Brass is the closest to one), she's got a fairly good chance.
Want: 50% Mostly because I'm not sure who I want more. There's Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Max Brass, the idea of multiple alts... but a villain first is something I'd like to see regardless. This is a good thing too, though I expect it for some series(Soul Calibur's Nightmare, Killer Instinct's Fulgore, and Tekken's Heihachi), and I could see it plausibly happening here.
Springtron
Chances: 80%... as an alt. I don't think he'd have a chance getting in on his own. Likewise, I don't see him ever replacing Spring Man as an AT either. It's not worth the extra assets used as well as time to re-map all the animations without any issues. But as an alt I could see it, since he's a very simplistic one and has the same exact proportions. He's not the only one who could work as an alt, mind you, but he does sound like a great one for Spring Man.
Want: 50% as an alt again. But only under that condition. I'd like to see him as a Spirit otherwise, as he'd fit right in. But I expect every single character to show up, spirit or cameo or otherwise.
ARMS 2: The ARMSageddon
Chances: 0%. They already advertised it's from the first game. We have the symbol from the first game. The most that could happen, which doesn't increase its chances either, is that it'll be a character who also appears in the second game, with maybe an updated design/moveset. An ARMS 2 character(let's say, Min Min) would also be able to show off new mechanics/abilities that would increase the game's playability, as it might improve so the characters feel less samey in general.
Want: 0%. There's no reason to really select anyone from ARMS 2 if they aren't in ARMS 1 already. With the advertisement done, it'd be basically outright lying to us. I'd rather have someone odd like Mechanica or even Twintelle, even ones not of terrible interest to me, because they at least are being honest about the various options.
Predictions: Papyrus 5%
Nominations: (Since I have a few extra)
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x 5
Fulgore x 5
Abstaining on want for all four of them. I didn't use any of them in the testpunch. I obviously don't know anything about the ARMS 2 option.
Theentirecircus
Chance - 3%. she's not particularly popular or unique. Not impossible, but not someone I think is likely. She's the third most likely post-release character, which isn't about how likely she is, but how unlikely two others are.
Whoneedslegs withARMSlike these?
Chance - 0%. The least likely ARMS character, and by extension, least likely post-launch character. It's literally a mechanical clone of Spring Man, adding it would be akin to adding Dark Link before Link. In the event of a multi character, it could happen, but 1. I don't think the multi-character concept will happen, and 2. That's not what I'm rating it on. Safe to say, it isn't happening.
[JOKE_REDACTED]
Chance - 25%. It's funny how min-maxed the ARMS dlc characters are. I think there are two that aren't happening, and 2 that are quite likely. Obviously, going by my score, Coyle is one of the likely ones, and third on my general prediction list. She's the main villian, every character fights her, and there are three characters that owe their existence to her. From a lore perspective, she's the clear winner. Lore isn't everything, so she isn't number one, but she's still someone to keep an eye on.
Someone not from the ARMS game.
Chance - 0%. I hate to be that guy, but they said "this character will be one of 15 from the ARMS game". I could potentially see Sakurai pulling some misdirection (it's not this character, it's these characters!) but I can't imagine he would actually lie. People call him a master troll, but the only two instances I can think of lasted either 5 seconds () or was so subtle nobody noticed until after the fact ().
Dr. Coyle
Chance: 30%
She's a decent choice and an above average pick for an ARMS rep, the only reason why she's ranked low is because she both has a lot of competition from the other ARMS characters and she's a villain. So far Smash Bros has never added a villain as a playable character without at least adding a hero from the same series. Want: 60%
There are ARMS reps out there that I'd like more (Twintelle, Min Min, Lola Pop), but I wouldn't mind having her on the roster. We have no female villains yet (besides Wendy who's a costume), so she'd be interesting.
Lola Pop
Chance: 15%
She just doesn't jump out as an important character relative to most of the other potential reps. She's just kinda... there. If she were picked it would definitely be a very out of left field pick. Want: 80%
That being said, I really like her design. She has a lot of personality and I could picture a lot of her silliness going into her moveset. All in all she seems like she'd be very fun to play.
Springtron
Chance: 1%
Why would Nintendo add Springtron if they could just add Springman. If anything, I'd find it more likely that Springman would get in and Springtron got relegated to Springman's assist trophy. Want: 5%
I don't find Springtron interesting in the slightest. He doesn't have much of a discernable personality and is inferior to Springman in my eyes.
ARMS 2 Rep
Chance: 10%
I wouldn't put it above Nintendo to blindside us with a totally new character to promote a new game, so it is indeed possible, though maybe not probable. Want: Abstain
I can't accurately gauge how much I'd want a theoretical new character since I know nothing about them (except that they'll have extendable ARMS). I'd reserve my judgement until the fighter is revealed.
I remember discussing BD in here at some point but I can't remember if that was a rating(if it was it happened a long while ago) or if it was a post direct reactions day
If I had to guess it'd be either on BDII's Game Awards announcement, the trailer it got on the last Direct, or the Octopath Traveler day (many people brought it up).
Dr coyle
Chance:40%
I do think she has a shot in smash as she plays a big part in the story.though her being a dlc character for arms makes me reluctant to rate her higher.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like any arms character.
Lola pop
Chance:1%
She dosent play that big of a role in the arms story.also shes a dlc character.
Want:50%
Mostly neutral.just like most of the arms rep.
Springtron
Chance:0%
I dont think sakurai will add springtron over spingman.springtron is also a dlc character.
Want:0%
Adding springtron over springman would be weird.id rather sakurai add spingman over spingtron.
Arms2:
Chance:0%
I dont think sakurai would pick someone we have never seen before.also i dont think sakurai will try to add someone from a game that has yet to be released.
Want:0%
Id rather see someone more iconic to arms.id also rather someone be someone who we already know from arms.
Edit:forget to rate arms 2
Noms:steve(rerate)×10
Edit2:Forgot i can nominate 10 times
Abstaining on wants for all of these, just because I don't really have much to say about them. They're cool, but I'd prefer other characters.
Edgy Science Mom
Chance - 2% Dr. Coyle has two big things going for her. She's the closest thing to ARMS' main antagonist after Hedlox and she's important in the lore. However, neither of those things have never been reflected in the first character added from a series. We didn't get Geese before Terry. Not being in ARMS' base roster and having a unique build (and therefore being ineligible for a spot as a costume) don't help her either.
Honk Honk
Chance - 0.1% I'm really not confident in Lola Pop. She's not very popular, very rarely appears in the game's marketing, and wasn't in ARMS base roster. Her build's similar enough to be an alt, but she's very low priority as far as that goes. The only joke about this clown is her chance at joining Smash .
The Robot Spring Man that isn't from Mega Man 7 Chance - 12% On his own, Spring Tron's basically got no hope. However, there's still a slim chance he could be an alt if Spring Man gets in. I mean, he is literally made to match Mr. Blue Pompadour, so he has that going for him. That being said, I think Ninjara, Min Min, and especially Ribbon Girl are more likely to be alts.
ARMS 2: Shock Absorber Boogaloo Chance - 0.001% Ignoring that Nintendo basically told us all of the eligible ARMS characters, there's another big issue with this idea. Namely, where's ARMS 2? Unless ARMS 2 is announced and shadowdropped within the coming week, this character's first introduction is in Smash. That's only happened once before in the series with and Sakurai disliked how he had to make assumptions that didn't match the final character to get that concept working, so I can't see him attempting that again.
She's the main villain of ARMS. So if not Spring Man, then it should be her. After all, the two most important characters in a work are often the hero and the villain. But what separates her from other would-be inclusions? Her involvement in the lore. Almost all of it connects to Dr. Coyle in some way. She created Helix, Springtron and Hedlok, revived Master Mummy for her own nefarious purposes and even has a long-standing vendetta against Max Brass and possibly Spring Man too. She's so involved in the story and lore of ARMS that she's almost if not just as much as a main character as Spring Man or Ribbon Girl. Dr. Coyle is also just a fun character. She's got more personality than 3/4 of the Smash roster thanks to her insanity and obsession with ARMS. Also, she can levitate in a fighting game. Imagine that as a gimmick instead of jumping? She represents ARMS well and would be incredibly fun to play. Because of those two factors, I wanted her in as a secondary ARMS rep when she was originally revealed for ARMS. I'd still pick Spring Man, since he's the main character, but if the ARMS rep isn't him, then I want Dr. Coyle.
Lola Pop:
Chance: 1%
Want: 30%
She's just another ARMS fighter, and she's a DLC ARMS fighter at that. Many other fighters have a large following or are connected to promotion and/or lore of the game. Lola Pop is fun, but she has none of what makes each ARMS fighter likely. It would be fun to beat up Marx with her, tho.
Spring Man but Spirits, Mii Outfits and Assist Trophies Deconifrm (assumes it's ONLY Springtron):
Chance: 15%
Want: 0%
This is probably the worst case scenario for the ARMS rep. Spring Man fans don't get their most wanted. Min Min fans don't get their character. Fans of characters like Waluigi, Rex and Shantae (just to name a few) don't get the second chance they've been hoping for. Anyone who wanted a moveset more unique than what Spring Man would offer don't get what they want. Everyone loses. And that's exactly where Springtron's chances lie. If Sakurai wanted to add Spring Man, but finds the "fan" rules to be more important, Springtron would make that remarkably clear. And I can't shake the feeling that Sakurai does care about those rules. After all, "Just because you try hard doesn't mean you'll make it into battle".
Literally (but this time literally actually means literally) who?
Chance: 0.1%
Want: Abstain
I abstain on want because I have no idea if I'll like them. Will they be fun? Will they feel the same as the other ARMS reps? I don't know, but here's a question about the ARMS 2 rep: Do they even exist? If so, did Sakurai learn about them in time? If so, did Sakurai/Nintendo make the knowing decision to choose them over an ARMS 1 character. At least one of these answers has to be no, because promotional material has said that they come from the ARMS GAME. Meaning the one that was already released. I really don't think it's feasible to have a new character be added with that distinction.
Nomination: Fighters Pass Volume 2 has three Nintendo fighters and three Third Party fighters x5
Chance - 5% - Dr. Coyle hits the sweet spot of having interesting abilities, while not being overly complicated or difficult to implement. If for some reason spirits are off the table and they go with pure ability and move set potential, she's the most likely under that criteria. That said, the chances of that happening are questionable, and having a series represented by a villain who isn't a mascot is... weird.
Want - 75% - She's a cool character, and I can imagine having fun playing with her. While I don't mind what the ARMS character will be (mostly), it does feel weird to have the villain first.
Lola Pop
Chance - 1% - Lola's not supper popular compared to her companions, not reaching the iconic status of other character. The only notable thing is that she was the first post-release character after Max Brass, which is hardly enough.
Want - 65% - I would rather have other characters, but I can take her. I like ARMS enough to support most characters so long as they aren't to gimmicky.
Springtron
Chance - 10% - Why pick him when Spring Man exists? There's no way he can get him in as a solo character. An alt is a distinct possibility, though I have a feeling they would pick more popular characters rather than him for this.
Want - 50% - Solo, no way. As an alt I'll be fine with it, I don't really care for alts.
ARMS 2 character
Chance - 0% - They specifically said that the character would be from ARMS, and ARMS 2 isn't even known to be a thing yet. I don't think a character for ARMS 2 exists.
Want - 0% - No, I'd rather not have promotion be this bland. Might as well go with Spring Man if you want to advertise ARMS 2.
Dr. Coyle
Chance: 25%
She's important to the story, so that's something. It doesn't really seem like she would be the first one they choose, though. Especially since it usually takes us a while to get villain type characters.
Want: 85%
I've always been a fan of bad guys. I'm a fan of bad girls even more. She's one of my top choices for an ARMS character in Smash.
Lola
Chance: 10%
Lola is another character that just kinda exists. She does have somewhat of a fanbase, though, so that's something. Aside from that, not really much going for her.
Want: 50%
Once again, I'm perfectly okay with any ARMS character we get. I have no strong feelings one way or the other about this character.
Springtron
Chance: 20%
Well, he's not an Assist Trophy, so that already makes him twice as likely as Spring Man. But really, that's about all he has going for him. The only way Springtron would get in is if Nintendo/Sakurai wants the generic boxart guy but want the upgrade the Assist Trophy. He could maybe get in as an alt, too, but I doubt it.
Want: 20%
The only reason I want Spring Man is that him being playable could give other ATs a chance at redemption. Springtron is basically the same character, but without any hope for upgraded ATs. So for that reason, he's my least wanted ARMS character.
Or more accurately, my least wanted out of the characters we actually know about.
Corrin 3 (or Roy 4?)
Chance: 5%
After the last character we got, I wouldn't put it past Nintendo to do this. But on the other hand, showing a list of possible characters and having it be none of them doesn't seem like something they would do. Not like Nintendo hasn't lied before, though.
Want: 0%
I've never really liked the idea of Nintendo/Sakurai deciding that a character is gonna be playable in Smash before their debut game even releases. While sometimes they get lucky are the character actually becomes popular (), other times we get stuck with a character that nobody wanted and nobody likes (). Why would I want a character that I know nothing about? This is the one time where saying "literally who" would actually be true.
Funny meme skeleton man (no the other one) prediction: 2%
Noms: Upgraded Spirit x10
Also, I know we're not rating him, but for completions sake, I'll rate Biff.
He gets double zeros. He's not even playable in his own game, why would he be playable here?
Also, I know we're not rating him, but for completions sake, I'll rate Biff.
He gets double zeros. He's not even playable in his own game, why would he be playable here?
Chance: 10%. Believe it or not, I don't think Undertale is down for the count. While the Sans Mii Costume was a dealbreaker for Volume 1, it seems that it preceded the finalization of the roster for Volume 2. And of course, we all know how big of a deal the costume reveal was, to the extent he managed to one-up both Banjo, and Terry. As a result, I believe it's back into contention, and overall actually may have a chance. It isn't very high, but it hasn't gotten Spirits yet even though Cuphead did literally an event or two after release. This logic worked with Three Houses, so it could also apply here. But the Mii Costume alone is a pretty big factor in suppressing him.
Papyrus, however, has a big big problem named Frisk. Generally, the competition was between Frisk and Sans: Papyrus didn't have as much protagonist power as Frisk (that is, any), nor was he as downright legendary as Sans was. So whereas Frisk can represent all of the things about Undertale, Papyrus is more of a less-capable Sans. He's not as route-specific as Sans is, but I think he doesn't have the star power of either. Beyond that, I don't think he has too much to worry about... but I'm not very confident in him.
Want: If Frisk is among my most wanted, obviously that means I'll give Papyrus a trash score for not being who I'd like, right? Especially now that it's a choice and I don't have to be grateful for what I get if the alternative is neither, just the Sans mii. But I like to think I'm a little bit more mature than that. And there's probably a bunch of people who would want him. So... 25%.
Red x 5. Apparently the Guardian is a non-specific character, and... uh... yeah I have nowhere near enough of an idea to give a good rating. But I imagine most people will be around the same, so 1.40%.
Chance: 0.5%
If we were to get a playable Undertale rep, it'd probably be either Frisk or Sans; Frisk for being the main character and Sans for essentially being the face of Undertale. It's hard to see Papyrus becoming playable when he's got to deal with those two as well as Undertale already being represented in Smash. Maybe if the Sans Mii Costume + Song were in the base game I'd give Papyrus some leeway, but at this rate I just don't see him happening.
Want: Abstain
When we last rated Papyrus back in 2018, I was really harsh and gave him a 0% for being an annoying meme skeleton. I never actually finished Undertale or saw much of Papyrus in-game (IIRC the last time I played was after the first Papyrus fight) so instead I'll just abstain now.
But with a ton of other potential indie characters out there I don't see my thoughts changing by much.
Chance 0 - See no reason why this would be the pick. Sans is the most popular character and got AT'd. Frisk is the main character. Think we got all the Undertale content we're going to get in this game already too.
Want 0 - I don't really need an Undertale character in Smash. If there was going to be one Sans was by far the best pick and now that he's off the table I can't see myself being interested in anyone else from the series
Predictions
Guardian - 5%
Noms
Stretchers x5
Jin(Ghost of Tsushima) x5
John Marston x5
Chance 0%
Sans is the most recognized character in Undertale and he's already in as mii costume. While I agree with the notion that undertale should not be discarded as a possibility (and it would be an excellent addition), I'm more keen to believe that no Sans would make Frisk the lone contender for the series. Or at least for Undertale; I wouldn't mind if they took someone from Deltarune either, and I would say Kris/Ralsei/Suzie have more of a chance than Papyrus
Want 10%
I love Papyrus as a character, but I just don't think he would be the best choice as a fighter from that series. Sans really is the coolest, most realistic option possible. Of the non-realistic, I would love to see Undyne.
Chance: 0%
Is there any point to this question? The popular and famous Sans got in as a mii costume, the MC isn't even in the game yet. Why would Papyrus be made playable when the 2 most iconic characters of that indie game aren't? Unlike other candidates, we have a clear indicator here in Sans mii costume, so no. Papyrus won't be playable.
Want: 0%
Papyrus is fun and all, but he's a pushover and mostly uses weaker variations of Sans's attacks. In almost every aspect, I'd sooner have Sans than Papyrus.
Predictions: Guardian (Destiny) - 1%
Why Guardian and not Master Chief from Bungie as well? Or Shepard, though that's a different company. Destiny is nothing special really...
[Rerate] Steve x145
[Rerate] Rex x145
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x120
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
Louie x110
Decidueye x107
Meowth x101
100 - 51
Zelda (BotW sequel) x90
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
The Boss (Saints Row) x80
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Kratos x75
Dr. Eggman x73
D.Va x70
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x68
[Rerate] Lip x65
The Stretchers x65
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x56
[Rerate] Frisk x55
Fulgore x51
50 - 25
Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
Nate Adams x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Red (Angry Birds) x40
Moogle x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
Alex Mason x35
Tidus x35
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
The Terrarian x30
Gooigi x30
Giygas x28
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x28
[Rerate] Captain Toad x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Under 25
Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
Concept: Returning stages x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Shuichi Saihara x20
Echo: Xion (Sora) x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
Jin Sakai x15
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: A person of color x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League repx10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Sakura Shinguji x9
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo: 40e x1
Steve and Rex are now neck and neck for the first place.
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content, Fulgore, Frisk, and The Boss fight past 50 noms.
Moogle gets out of the under 25 club.
Today we have three new concepts, A person of color (10 noms), Bravely Default rep (10 noms), and Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party (5 noms).
Chance: 0%
I don't think Frisk and Sans can get into Smash as fighters due to a lack of moveset potential. Sans is already disconfirmed because of his DLC Mii Costume, and given how he's the first piece of content Undertale gets, it doesn't bode well for more after. Add to that the fact that Indies seem to be barred from entry altogether, at least for now. So yeah, I'm pretty confident that Papyrus isn't getting in, he suffers from the same problems Sans and Frisk do and he's less important than them.
Want: abstain
I love Undertale and I love Papyrus but like I said I don't think any character from UT is fighter material. If one got in, it'd be the moveset that makes or breaks my satisfaction.
Chance: 0.25%. Well, UNDERTALE lacks a spirit event, so that stops me from going absolute 0. That said, Sans is a Mii Costume and Frisk... isn't a Mii Costume. I don't expect them to double-dip with this franchise, but, if they did, I'd expect the player character over the less-famous brother of the most famous character.
Want: Abstain. If he's fun, then that'd be nice. UNDERTALE music is very good. This ends my opinions.
Gonna have to abstain again, unfortunately. Internet connection is dead due to a thunderstorm that swept through my area. Though with Sans as a Mii costume I find it odd to see a playable Papyrus before him. Papyrus is fun, but not the protagonist or face of the franchise.
Probably not. If even sans, the glorious meme that he is, only managed to get in as a Mii Costume, then I don't see Papyrus getting anything more than that. sans basically has his entire moveset and more, to boot.
Want: ehh... about 25%.
He wouldn't be bad, I guess? It'd probably just be better to promote sans, though. sans has slightly more variety thanks to those Gaster Blasters.
Papyrus
Chance:0%
Undertale has a mii costume rep.even if they would choose an undertale rep,i doubt that they will choose papyrus over frisk,the main protanganist of the game.
Want:40%
An undertale rep would be cool.though personally id rather see frisk as the playable fighter that papyrus.
I currently have no internet at home thanks to a storm so I'm using a hotspot.
Papyrus
Chance: 0%
I wanna give him the benefit of the doubt since he is a recognizable character, but after Sans got a Mii costume, I have to question if that is all the content we will get from Undertale, especially since these premium mii costumes seems to be the way for indie characters. But if we do get a playable character, it will most likely be Frisk for being the main character. And after all this time i still wonder what a moveset would look like for an undertale character.
Want: Abstain
Haven't played Undertale so I don't have any personal connection with this guy.