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Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
Location
Drenthe, NL
The ride never ends
Chance: 0.5%
While you can make the argument of Undertale not completely being out of the running after the sans costume with Megalovania made it in, it is still looking rather unlikely. Not sure if Toby would be invited to Sakurai's house for a second time. But hey, since the more popular skeleton has already been costumed surely that means Papyrus no longer stands in his shadow and can get the invitation in his mailbox, right? Not really, cause chances are they're just gonna go with Frisk instead. Silent Byleth being chosen over the more popular house leaders has made it pretty clear they're always going for the protagonist first. Papyrus just seems like Spirit material in comparison or maybe if he's lucky he gets a costume just like his brother. That would probably require an Undertale challenger pack however, which likely won't happen.

Want: 35%
While the impact wouldn't be as big after Sans, I can't say no to more Undertale representation (with some Deltarune sprinkled through that as well) and I do really like Papyrus. Best character in the game objectively. Still, he's an indie character, meaning he's Hollow Knight competition, who I greatly prefer but Papyrus would be my second choice in that department.

Guardian: 1.78%
Dr Eggman x5
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,239
Location
Georgia
Papyrus
Chance: 0.01%
An Undertale newcomer isn't very likely at this junction since the rep most fans were rallying behind is a mii costume. If it were still possible somehow, I would bet on Frisk before Papyrus since they're the player character. The only thing I could give in Papyrus's favor is that he might have slightly more to work with for a moveset.
Want: 30%
He's not my favorite fighter choice. My preference if Deltarune is out of consideration would be: Metatton >>> Undyne > Frisk > Sans > anyone else. I would be happy with the soundtrack he'd come with at least.

Nominations: Zelda (BoTW sequel) ×5
 

BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,919
Location
winnipeg
Papyrus

Chance: it was originally 1%, given that Sans and Frisk or more likely to be the reps. But since Sans got in as a Mii Costume, Papyrus chance is bumped up to 1.5%. Frisk is still more likely to be the playable character, plus is Papyrus where to appear, he would be a spirit in an event instead.

Want: 50%. On the other hand, he could be a fun character to play as. He has some moveset potential and I can see him face off against a few other fighters (Cloud and Ness for instance). However, if he were to be playable, I thinks Sans could help him in his final Smash (for reasons). Overall, he would be a fun choice.

Predictions: Guardian (1%)

Noms: 2 for Gooigi and 3 for Concept: Second F-Zero Rep
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,787
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Papyrus

Chance: 0.01%
We already have Undertale content as DLC, and if Sans was merely chosen as a Mii Costume, I’m not sure a playable character of any sort is even remotely on the horizon. Even if it was, it would more likely be Frisk because of the protagonist first rule. The very best I could see for him is a Spirit.

Want: Abstain
 
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warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Papyrus
Chance: 0%
If Undertale were to get a rep, it would either be Frisk or Sans. Sans looks to be out of the running due to his Mii costume, and that probably also eliminated Frisk since Sans is the most well known Undertale character.

Want: 0%
I've never played Undertale. If I had to choose a rep, it would be Sans.

Noms: Alex Mason x5
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
I wanted to actually use the papyrus font for this rating, but Smash Boards doesn't let you use that
I hope he made lotsa spaghetti!

Chance: 0%
Yeah, that should come as no surprise. When even Sans, who's easily the most recognizable and popular character from Undertale (for better and for worse) can only make it in as a Mii costume, then there's no way that The Great Papyrus can make it in. If we do see an Undertale(/Deltarune) character at this point, I think it's far more likely to be Frisk, Kris, or even Asriel in some fashion.

Want: 35%
Sure, I'm always down for some more Undertale in Smash. With Papyrus, it'd also help that he has a bit more to work with in terms of a potential moveset than either of the humans do.

Predicting this Guardian to get around 0.78%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
 

Opossum

Thread Title Changer
BRoomer
Joined
Aug 10, 2011
Messages
34,013
Location
This Thread
NNID
OpossumGuy
3DS FC
4742-4911-3431
Switch FC
SW 2859 6322 5208
Abstaining from chance.

Want: 100%

Papyrus is fun as hell. Such a lively personality. He also has a very nice set of moves to use in Smash from his boss fight. Plus we'd get Bonetrousle in Smash. There's literally no down sides.
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
Figured I'd finish the ARMS calcs so we can compare them all.

Dr. Coyle
19.37% Chance - 54.61% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi with 18.82%

Lola Pop
4.82% Chance - 50.71% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari Sari with a precise 5.00%
A lot of people mentioned that being DLC makes her and Dr. Coyle low priority, which is weird to me because it didn't come up with any of the other DLC characters.

Springtron
9.74% Chance - 19.95% Want
Winner of predictions was Sari Sari with a precise 10.00%
Springtron is officially the least wanted ARMS fighter. Many specifically rated his odds of coming solo, hence the low scores.

Concept: Brand new ARMS character
4.67% Chance - 6.48% Want
Winner of predictions was DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 with a precise 5.00%
This has the lowest want score out of all the ARMS ratings, and also out of any concept. Looks like a new and underdiscussed boogeyman of speculation. Should also disclose that there's very few positive scores for this one; for chance, only five ratings above 1%, and that number's down to three for want.

Who has extra noms?

Artix Artix 15
Awakining Awakining 5
Verde Coeden Scalesworth Verde Coeden Scalesworth 5
BowserKing BowserKing 5
DanganZilla5 DanganZilla5 10
DaUsername DaUsername 92
Delzethin Delzethin 5
Jomosensual Jomosensual 10
NintenRob NintenRob 5
Nemuresu Nemuresu 10
Perkilator Perkilator 10
Ridrool64 Ridrool64 5
Sari Sari 25
Troykv Troykv 15
waddledeeonredyoshi waddledeeonredyoshi 10
Wunderwaft Wunderwaft 15
 

Sid-cada

Smash Lord
Joined
Jan 19, 2013
Messages
1,784
Papyrus

Chance - 0% - Sakurai tends to chose the first character to represent the main mechanics of the series as best as possible. This typically means going for the protagonist, Frisk. Papyrus doesn't have much of an edge here, and with Sans being a Mii costume I'm not certain Undertale will be getting more content in the first place.

Want - 50% - Eh, I've had enough of Undertale. I understand it's place in history, but I'm mostly satisfied with what it got. I have no desire to see any playable character, whether it be Papyrus, Sans, Frisk, or someone else.


Nominations

Lip X5
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
Joined
Aug 3, 2014
Messages
4,439
Location
New Jersey
NNID
Villager49
Switch FC
SW-2215-0173-2152
Day over.

Rate Guardian from Destiny.

Predict Ahri from League of Legends.

Megadoomer Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Destiny mood:

 

waddledeeonredyoshi

Smash Lord
Joined
Jul 29, 2014
Messages
1,536
Location
Drenthe, NL
That game Ihe rants about alot
Double zeroes
I don't know alot about this series other than the first game being the most expensive to make game at the time. From what I know, Destiny is another standard western online FPS, with no connection to Nintendo or much Japanese presence. You know, I really feel that if we're getting an FPS rep it would be someone a little more iconic, instead of some customizable avatar character like this. Online FPS is a genre I hold little interest in. If I did, I'd probably prefer someone from TF2 or something.

Ahri: 3.49%
Captain Toad x5
 
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BowserKing

Smash Lord
Joined
Feb 16, 2019
Messages
1,919
Location
winnipeg
Guardian

Chance: 1%. The chance of Guardian getting in is very low, and the only reason it got one percent because it is more likely to be a spirit for an event, but only if activision characters get in. Crash and Spyro are clearly better choices for reps anyways.

Want: 50%. While that character could be fun to play as, I don't know too much about that character, so I will stop it right there.

Prediction: Ahri (2%)

Noms: 3 for Concept: Pokeball Pokémon Promotion, 3 for Stage: Bowser's Castle and 4 for Returning Stages

Edit: Fixed it for you
 
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Lyncario

Smash Ace
Joined
Dec 3, 2019
Messages
926
Location
Hell
I though that Guardian meant Guaridans from Zelda lol

Chance: 0%
Like, Destiny? Of all series from Activision? Over Crash, Spyro, Overwatch, and even Call of Duty, that already has a near 0 chance? There's just so much that could happen before it. Even if all 4 of those series were already represented in Smash with a playable fighter, it would still be extremly low.
Edit: zferole pointed out that Activision does not own Destiny anymore. Well, at least it has less competition from it's company, only a lot from it's genre. I do not change my rating, because really, I fail to see why Nintendo would pick Destiny of all series to get a rep in Smash.

Want: 5%
For me, fps reps go from "ok" to "blergh", and Guadian from Destiny is closer to the later. I don't really like the genre all that much, so I would at least prefer if the most popular, historical, and more well received fps would get in. Destiny is none of those, fro mwhat I know. But hey, it could be fun. Maybe.

Ahri predictions: 6.2%
 
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zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
Um.... not voting yet, but you guys know Activision doesnt own Destiny anymore right? Bungie left them and took the rights to the series. So Activision has nothing to do with Destinys chances
 

DanganZilla5

Smash Champion
Writing Team
Joined
Mar 5, 2019
Messages
2,434
Guardian of the Galaxy

Chance: 3%

Even though Activision doesn't own Destiny anymore, this still ain't likely. The series has no ties with Nintendo and I struggle to think of a reason why Nintendo would bother with a character from Destiny. If Nintendo wanted an online shooter rep or a FPS rep, they would go with someone else like Tracer and heck, Sakurai might even choose Gordon Freeman instead for reasons I've stated on his day. Oh yeah, and it's a western series owned by a western company. I wish I could come up with more reasoning than this, but Destiny just doesn't have what it takes to have a playable character in my eyes, and the hype that the games got has long since passed.

Want: Abstain

It's a cool series but I haven't played enough of it to gauge how much I actually like it or what content I would like in Smash, if any at all.

Prediction: Ahri - 20% (People are going to overate it due to the supposed leak)

Noms: The Boss (Saints Row) x10
 

DrifloonEmpire

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 2, 2019
Messages
2,230
Guardian

Chance: 0.5% - Complete lack of Nintendo representation aside, this would be an extremely bizarre pick from Activision. Crash and Spyro are fan favorites, both in the midst of extremely successful revivals and have said games on Switch. Meanwhile there's Overwatch, who's Switch port they heavily pushed. And on top of that, Activision doesn't own them anymore so they don't have the big company backing for negotiations. Plus being a Western developer isn't doing them any favors. We've had unexpected choices before (Who expected a Warframe spirit?), but I don't see a reason why Nintendo would choose Destiny over one of the much bigger choices. Along with a lack of fan demand, competition really kills any chance of Guardian making the cut, both with his former Activision characters and Western characters as a whole.

Want: 0% - No attachment to the series, and a college roommate of mine had an unhealthy addiction to it, so I can't say I would want to see it in Smash.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Ahri - 5.32%
 

Ridrool64

Smash Lord
Joined
Jun 21, 2013
Messages
1,398
Location
New Jersey
Somebody call Link.

Chance: 0%. Gonna parrot everybody else here in saying that they're simply not happening. Competition is the big thing here, because there's way more prolific series that likely have caught Nintendo's eye long beforehand. But being owned by a western company without a significant draw leaves the Guardian in the dust. In the future if it turns out the director was an absolute Destiny junkie, then it'd actually stand a really good chance, but right now... no, no reason for inclusion.

Want: Uh... abstain. Don't have anything to say here.

Red x 5. Abstaining on an Ahri prediction.
 

Jomosensual

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 13, 2018
Messages
2,014
Guardian

Chance 8 - Very unlikely. There's more popular FPS out there. Not being with Activision anymore is good for him but otherwise I don't see a good path here. Nobody is really pushing for him and there's a crap ton of western reps who are more popular. That being said, Destiny is very well liked in the US at least so I could maybe see it but if I made a power rankings list I wouldn't have him too high on it.

Want 50 - I liked the first Destiny game I played until my save got ****ed up and I never felt restarting it after that. He's also kinda a generic avatar so that's not the best. Wouldn't be pumped but wouldn't hate this either

Predictions:
Ahri - 10%? Dont really know much about the specific LoL characters

Noms:
Stretchers x5
 

GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
That wizard came from the moon

Chance: 1%
A Western FPS franchise that has never been on a Nintendo console, from a developer that has never had games on Nintendo systems (****in' 'ell man, not even Marathon?). Are we talking about Half-Life? No! Half-Life revolutionized the industry, whereas Destiny postured a lot, built up tons of hype, and turned out to be a middling game-as-a-service with not enough content (well, I'll give it this, it was influential in that regard). I found that both games had good launch sales in Japan, so I won't appeal to Japanese obscurity, but this just isn't an important series in the grand scheme of things. No iconic characters, no iconic music or locations, no radical gameplay mechanics or innovations, not the best or the first at anything, Destiny just is.

Want: 0%
The one thing Destiny can be said to have pioneered is the practice of selling an undercooked game as complete for $60 and finishing it later. So, yeah, not exactly "gaming pantheon" caliber.

Noms: ****ing Tidus x5
Prediction: do people still believe that dumb LoL leak? I hope not, but just in case I'll go for a 10.02%

Want: Abstain (50%)
Dude those are two very different things.
 

Sari

Editing Staff
Writing Team
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Villager49
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That one game that had Peter Dinklage in it but eventually replaced him with Nolan North

Chance: 0.1%
The Destiny series has zero relation to Nintendo and is western based anyway. The series always seems to have some sort of controversy each year and is generally agreed on that it was overhyped as hell. When it comes to FPS reps, there are just so many bigger fish out there like Master Chief and Gordon to name a few.

Want: 0%
Never got into the Destiny series and to be perfectly blunt I don't care about it at all. I've heard some really bad things about the games and there is no way I'd want a Destiny rep over more deserving FPS characters like Chief, Doomguy, or Gordon.

Ahri chance prediction: 7.50%

Nominations:
Rex [Rerate] x5
 

amageish

Smash Master
Joined
Jul 21, 2018
Messages
3,558
Guardian

Chance: 0.25%. Copy-paste what I said about Gordon, but worse. Every third-party company in Smash has a history of working with Nintendo in some form. Interviews about Banjo suggest that this is effectively a prerequisite, as people frequently mention how collaboration with Microsoft on Minecraft paved the way to Banjo in Smash. Bungie is a western company without any Nintendo ties. I don't think this is happening.

Want: Abstain. No attachment to this series, positive or negative.

Nominations: Moogle x 5
Prediction: 12%. I imagine this will be a text leak debate in addition to the usual "What champion would represent League" debate...
 

warpenguin55

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Aug 20, 2018
Messages
490
Guardian
Chance: 0%
The main issue here is the competition. I don't see how it gets around Tracer, Crash, and Spyro. Nobody is really requesting this happens either.

Want: 15%
Destiny was fun. I never really liked the PVP but the PVE story stuff was fine.

Noms: Alex Mason x5
 

Mushroomguy12

Smash Hero
Joined
Nov 23, 2018
Messages
9,787
Location
Nintendo Land Theme Parks, Incorporated
Guardian

Chance: 0.01%

The games have no relations to Nintendo systems, and the company didn't work with Nintendo that much. It's also mostly western based as others have said. There also is very little fan demand in general.

Want: 1%

Don't have any connection to this series and don't care about the character much. There are too many other characters I'd much rather have.
 
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GoodGrief741

Smash Legend
Joined
Sep 22, 2012
Messages
10,169
[Rerate] Rex x155
[Rerate] Steve x150
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x125
Louie x115
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x111
Decidueye x107
Meowth x101

100 - 51

Zelda (BotW sequel) x95
The Boss (Saints Row) x85
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Sackboy x80
Dr. Eggman x78
Proto Man x75
[Rerate] Kratos x75
D.Va x75
[Rerate] Lip x70
The Stretchers x70
Concept: Upgraded Spirit x68
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x61
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x60
[Rerate] Frisk x55
Fulgore x51

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x50
Nate Adams x50
Boss: Ender Dragon x49
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Concept: Content from currently unreleased game (not Spirit Events) (as of May 17th 2020) x45
Red (Angry Birds) x45
Moogle x45
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x40
Alex Mason x40
Tidus x40
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x39
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x35
The Terrarian x35
Gooigi x32
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x31
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x30
Urbosa x30
Giygas x28
[Rerate] Captain Toad x28
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Rival Pokémon Trainer x25
Shuichi Saihara x25

Under 25

Stage: Bowser's Castle x24
Concept: Returning stages x21
Echo: Xion (Sora) x21
[Rerate] Nightmare x20
Jin Sakai x20
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
[Rerate] Paper Mario x15
Concept: No Spirit promotions x15
Wolf Link x15
Diablo (Diablo) x15
Concept: A person of color x15
Sakura Shinguji x14
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Neptune (Hyperdimension Neptunia) x10
Concept: Bravely Default rep x10
Concept: Rocket League rep x10
[Rerate] Neku Sakuraba x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Magolor x7
Taranza x6
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Asuka (Senran Kagura) x5
Furret x5
Deku Scrub x5
Mii Costume: Edward Falcon x5
Concept: A LABO character x5
Cynthia x5
Concept: Bonus character x5
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is half Nintendo and half third party x5
John Marston x5
Concept: Generic Zora x3
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2
Concept: Generic Goron x2
Mii Costume: Jacket x2
Echo: 40e x1

Rex cuts through Steve and takes first place. Louie sneaks past Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable to end the day in fourth place.

Shuichi Saihara reaches 25 noms.

A stranger rides into town: his name is John Marston, and he comes with 5 noms...

Guardian
Chance: 0%
The main issue here is the competition. I don't see how it gets around Tracer, Crash, and Spyro. Nobody is really requesting this happens either.

Want: 15%
Destiny was fun. I never really liked the PVP but the PVE story stuff was fine.

Noms: Alex Mason x5
Activision doesn't own Destiny anymore.
 

Ninjaed

Smash Journeyman
Joined
Nov 7, 2018
Messages
468
Guardian

Chance: 0%
Bungie is the same company that gave us Halo. Why would they ever be asked for the rights to Guardian and not the far more iconic and popular Master Chief whose games actually pioneered things of actual worth (cf what Goodgrief said about Destiny)? Now Halo is prob more associated with Microsoft in people's minds so there'd be more at play, negotiations would be easier, yada yada... but why would Nintendo ever approach Bungie alone for Guardian?

"But B&K made it in before Master Chief so-" no. There are sound reasons behind that choice. I hate it when people use B&K as an excuse to shift the spotlight to their improbable picks. It'd be like me saying "who cares about the other Square Enix reps, B&K made it in so clearly Riesz has to be the next SE rep over 2B, Lara Croft, etc". B&K were popular picks, they were also popular in Japan, have an aesthetic that fits right at home within Smash, were iconic on the N64 (that "Guh-huh" sound was still used to that day in youtube videos) which gave them ties with Nintendo and more. Destiny? Not iconic, not requested, not a pioneer, not really popular, no history with Nintendo...

Want: get glitched
It's not Anthem but seriously, I never really made the distinction between the 2 games in my mind. Both are buggy, incomplete cashgrabs I want nothing to do with. Can't tell you which is more buggy. All I know is that if there's one character in Destiny that ought to make it in, it's not Guardian. It's Cayde.

Predictions: Ahri - 21%
Nominations: D.Va x5
 
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RouffWestie

Smash Lord
Joined
Oct 27, 2013
Messages
1,239
Location
Georgia
Destiny
Chance: 1%
It would be an odd choice for Nintendo to make. While Destiny is notable among modern first-person shooters, I think the pure impact other series have had on the industry overshadow it. There's very little reason to go through the trouble of negotiating with another Western company and have it be for Destiny of all FPS games.
Want: 0%
I don't have any personal attachment to this game. It doesn't look like it has much to offer me personally. I would prefer many other franchises get represented on the roster than Destiny.

Nominations: [Rerate] Rex x5
 

zferolie

Smash Hero
Joined
Jul 2, 2013
Messages
5,002
Wow.... the hate Destiny gets is amazing. I agree with the 0% chance and thats how I vote myself for it, for basically the reasons said before(no nintendo rep previously, a lot of FPS compitition,), but why is the game itself being attacked as a cash grab?

I have played destiny for years, and yes it is buggy sometimes, and i don't always like every season or event, but its not a cashgrab at all like Anthem. where are people hearing this garbage?
 

Calamitas

Smash Champion
Joined
Aug 17, 2018
Messages
2,689
Location
Germany
Smash is pretty well guarded against this character

Chance: 0%
A Western character who has no set design, hails from a ~liiiife seeeervice~ FPS, and that has no noteworthy presence in Japan and no fan support, either? Yeah, this character is definitely not happening. There will need to be many Western characters in Smash before this character has any chance of making it in.

Want: 0%
I usually abstain from rating want for these kinds of characters, where I have no personal familiarity with them, but in this case. . . nah, I really don't want them. I'd rather not see this type of game represented in Smash.

Predicting Ahri to get around 7.31%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily First-Party x5.
 

chocolatejr9

Smash Hero
Joined
Sep 30, 2018
Messages
8,383
Wow.... the hate Destiny gets is amazing. I agree with the 0% chance and thats how I vote myself for it, for basically the reasons said before(no nintendo rep previously, a lot of FPS compitition,), but why is the game itself being attacked as a cash grab?

I have played destiny for years, and yes it is buggy sometimes, and i don't always like every season or event, but its not a cashgrab at all like Anthem. where are people hearing this garbage?
Well, remember when Destiny was owned by Activision? Yeah... that should explain it.
 
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