Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Opossum]

lol if you honestly think that companies don't "bend the truth" to make themselves look better then I really don't know what else to say.

"For Nintendo 3DS, Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia was released in Japan in April and overseas in May and has been a popular title. "

That is literally all they say, nothing about how its selling just that its popular. No numbers, no facts, just that its popular. Compare that to,

"we released Mario Kart 8 Deluxe in April to favorable response, selling 3.54 million units worldwide." or
"The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, released in the previous period, has also continued to perform well, selling 1.16 million units worldwide (3.92 million units on a cumulative basis) "

And you see that when the numbers look good they include them. So why didn't they include anything about SoV?

Because they literally ONLY include the exact numbers for games that sold over one million units. That's how it's always been.

Putting misinformation on a financial report is literally a criminal offense.

 

[GoodGrief741]

*sigh* here I go again

1.we dont know if spirits deconfirm so stop saying they do

2.they think it would be cool for her to be a fighter and Matt said “if not now then maybe next time” all they wanted is for her just to show up in any form

3.SHE IS NOT WALUIGI! all people want is to see her get represented in some form so her popularity would increase and they thank sakurai and Ed for putting her in waluigi fans on the other hand were sending death treats to Sakurai after he was shown as an AT. so she is not waluigi and he will never be playable

4.while you have Travis right here’s the part your wrong.

Sans is already in

Steve isn’t indie any more thanks to Microsoft
Plus notch said he wasn’t indie anymore

Of course SK is more we’ll known but she has more history and she’ll reclaim her throne soon

5.they chose those because they were highly requested And they made sure the runner ups still get represented and not forgotten for example: why dose Isaac have a mii costume? Why is Krystal an AT instead of a regular spirit? Have you heard of silver medals?

6.View attachment 181623
Might wanna rethink what you said there

7.fan polls don’t mean anything and people who are voting steve? Are vergeben fans

8.

Not Shantae’s day so you’re off-topic.

 

[shocktarts17]

Because they literally ONLY include the exact numbers for games that sold over one million units. That's how it's always been.

Putting misinformation on a financial report is literally a criminal offense.

Its not misinformation, "it's popular" could mean anything. It could mean that its the next Fortnite and Minecraft combined or it could mean that it's popular with Fire Emblem fans and that's it, but those two things are totally different.

EDIT: its worth saying that all of this could be ended if you would source your claims that my source is wrong and the numbers are better.

 

[Opossum]

Its not misinformation, "it's popular" could mean anything. It could mean that its the next Fortnite and Minecraft combined or it could mean that it's popular with Fire Emblem fans and that's it, but those two things are totally different.

What benefit would they have for lying to or misleading their investors though? Why is it so hard to accept that it may have actually sold well?

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Celica: Chance: 5%. Want: 5%.

I'm pretty sure if we're getting another FE fighter they'll be a full fighter from FE 3 Houses, and all I can see Celica being at this point is some re-hashed echo of Robin minus the weapon degrading (or something).

I have no particular attachment to Echoes, and personally I think we reached too many FE fighters when Roy was re-added. Although a Robin echo wouldn't be awful.

 

[shocktarts17]

What benefit would they have for lying to or misleading their investors though? Why is it so hard to accept that it may have actually sold well?

Because no one wants to invest money in a company that is making games that don't sell well. Its not a Nintendo thing its a business thing, you always put the best spin you can put on anything so that people want to invest more money.

What benefit would they have to say, "Hey we messed up this game and it didn't sell well but you should still give us your money anyway."

 

[Deleted member]

Not Shantae’s day so you’re off-topic.

Sorry I was gonna rate Celia’s chances until I saw him what he said and I couldn’t help it

Sorry

 

[Mogisthelioma]

To clear things up, Fire Eblem Echoes: Shadows of Valentia sold less than 700,000 units according to VG charts. Unless if VG charts is a bad source, it's easy to assume they wouldn't want to boast about having only that many sales in the wake of Awakening selling 1.3 million and Fates selling 1.89 million.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

What benefit would they have for lying to or misleading their investors though? Why is it so hard to accept that it may have actually sold well?

Mainly since the point of that argument wasn’t that it didn’t sell well. The argument started when you compared the OoT content in Smash to SoV. The fact will still remain that Zelda did better no matter how well SoV sold.

Then stop complaining about too much FE characters lmao
You really just walked yourself onto that one, huh?

...
Whoa, I’m sorry I evidently pissed you off with some hyperbole here.

All I’m saying is, if we get another FE character, we’ll get another replay of the Corrin backlash. As I've said several times, I’d love to see Azura.

But nobody can deny that Fire Emblem has gotten way more love than any other series in the character department (which is the most important thing in this game) based on it’s impact to Nintendo’s bottom line.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

But nobody can deny that Fire Emblem has gotten way more love than any other series in the character department (which is the most important thing in this game) based on it’s impact to Nintendo’s bottom line.

Obviously people who advocate for Fire Emblem will have trouble accepting that fact. I'm not taking shots here, but you almost never see someone who wants a Fire Emblem fighter in the game acknowledge the crazy amount of Fire Emblem fighters we've gotten in the last few years.

 

[Opossum]

Because no one wants to invest money in a company that is making games that don't sell well. Its not a Nintendo thing its a business thing, you always put the best spin you can put on anything so that people want to invest more money.

What benefit would they have to say, "Hey we messed up this game and it didn't sell well but you should still give us your money anyway."

But that's what I'm saying. That's misleading your investors for financial gain, and that is illegal. Like, you're kind of accusing Nintendo of fraud here. Why go to such lengths instead of accepting that it sold better than you're claiming it did?

 

[Mogisthelioma]

But that's what I'm saying. That's misleading your investors for financial gain, and that is illegal. Like, you're kind of accusing Nintendo of fraud here. Why go to such lengths instead of accepting that it sold better than you're claiming it did?

How much are they claiming it sold for?

 

[shocktarts17]

But that's what I'm saying. That's misleading your investors for financial gain, and that is illegal. Like, you're kind of accusing Nintendo of fraud here. Why go to such lengths instead of accepting that it sold better than you're claiming it did?

It's not misleading, its not anything thats the whole point.

"Fire Emblem is a popular game"

That by itself doesn't mean anything.

"The Legend of Zelda series is the 4th best selling series in Nintendo history (105.62 million) [http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_Nintendo_games]"

Do you see the difference between the two? In one you say that a game is popular, but that could mean that its popular with males age 16-25 in North America or that its well known when they asked random people on the street. Saying its popular isn't misleading because it could mean any or all of those things.

 

[Opossum]

How much are they claiming it sold for?

Less than 200K, which is waaaaaaay too low. 200K would be pretty abysmal and we know it almost reached 150K on its first week in Japan alone.

 

[shocktarts17]

Less than 200K, which is waaaaaaay too low. 200K would be pretty abysmal and we know it almost reached 150K on its first week in Japan alone.

please please please just find a source for that so this whole thing can be put to rest.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

It's not misleading, its not anything thats the whole point.

"Fire Emblem is a popular game"

That by itself doesn't mean anything.

"The Legend of Zelda series is the 4th best selling series in Nintendo history (105.62 million) [http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Best_selling_Nintendo_games]"

Do you see the difference between the two? In one you say that a game is popular, but that could mean that its popular with males age 16-25 in North America or that its well known when they asked random people on the street. Saying its popular isn't misleading because it could mean any or all of those things.

I take marketing and I have to say you're absolutely right. "Popular" in and of itself means nothing without context provided. If Nintendo were to say "Fire Emblem has 12 million sales an is popular," that lines up well since they're citing it with over ten million sales. However, anyone can point out that the amount of sales that Fire Emblem has barely lines up to the amount of sales other top Nintendo franchises.

Less than 200K, which is waaaaaaay too low. 200K would be pretty abysmal and we know it almost reached 150K on its first week in Japan alone.

please please please just find a source for that so this whole thing can be put to rest.

Echoes has sold slightly under 700K units.

 

[Moydow]

Unless if VG charts is a bad source

Which it is
https://www.wired.com/2008/06/why-we-dont-ref/
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18919

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Which it is
https://www.wired.com/2008/06/why-we-dont-ref/
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18919

Ok.
Is there another source with sales numbers of SoV?

 

[Opossum]

Honestly all it takes is a bit of logical deduction to say the sub-200K listing is absolutely false. That would mean it sold less than Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.

To put that into perspective, S.T.E.A.M. sold all of 2,000 copies its first week in Japan, and its worldwide lifetime total was between 180-200K, which is horrible. Shadows of Valentia sold a little under that amount in its first week in Japan alone. SoV isn't a sub-200K seller.

 

[Mogisthelioma]

Honestly all it takes is a bit of logical deduction to say the sub-200K listing is absolutely false. That would mean it sold less than Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.

To put that into perspective, S.T.E.A.M. sold all of 2,000 copies its first week in Japan, and its worldwide lifetime total was between 180-200K, which is horrible. Shadows of Valentia sold a little under that amount in its first week in Japan alone. SoV isn't a sub-200K seller.

But is there a source with today's sales number? Because that's what we all need to know.

 

[Opossum]

But is there a source with today's sales number? Because that's what we all need to know.

The only concrete thing is that it sold under one million. Other than that, only estimates exist, but Nintendo and IS have said they were pleased with the sales.

The only reason we know it sold less than a million is because Nintendo only releases exact numbers for titles that sell over one million.

 

[shocktarts17]

Honestly all it takes is a bit of logical deduction to say the sub-200K listing is absolutely false. That would mean it sold less than Code Name: S.T.E.A.M.

To put that into perspective, S.T.E.A.M. sold all of 2,000 copies its first week in Japan, and its worldwide lifetime total was between 180-200K, which is horrible. Shadows of Valentia sold a little under that amount in its first week in Japan alone. SoV isn't a sub-200K seller.

You know what in order to facilitate discussion I will concede that the source could be wrong and the numbers are higher than that, even the 700K number is less than half of the other recent FE games (including FE Warriors) so its not like this suddenly makes it popular.

And even at the end of all of that popularity is only one thing in all of this, none of the other points discussed made Celica any more likely even if she is popular. Heck she could be the most popular missing Fire Emblem character like you claim and that wouldn't suddenly make her a lock for DLC. There are more popular series that also have popular characters that could be added as DLC.

 

[SPEN18]

I mean, you guys can continue to argue about the sales and how much they actually matter, but SoV really isn't the kind of game Nintendo is gonna focus its marketing on, especially going forward with DLC. Celica is already virtually irrelevant with a new FE game on the horizon. Sure, the DLC may have been decided on quite a while ago but Nintendo knew during the process that a game like SoV would be well in the rearview mirror by the time the DLC is released.

Basically, Celica may be popular but she's outranked in that arena by other characters, both within and outside of her own franchise. Even if NoJ sets aside a slot for a FE character, there are more marketable and more popular choices than her, even in spite of her "recency."

 

[Opossum]

You know what in order to facilitate discussion I will concede that the source could be wrong and the numbers are higher than that, even the 700K number is less than half of the other recent FE games (including FE Warriors) so its not like this suddenly makes it popular.

And even at the end of all of that popularity is only one thing in all of this, none of the other points discussed made Celica any more likely even if she is popular. Heck she could be the most popular missing Fire Emblem character like you claim and that wouldn't suddenly make her a lock for DLC. There are more popular series that also have popular characters that could be added as DLC.

Never did I use the game's sales as a reason for her inclusion. I was merely objecting to a falsified low number being used against her. There's a world of difference there.

When did I EVER say she was a lock?

 

[shocktarts17]

Never did I use the game's sales as a reason for her inclusion. I was merely objecting to a falsified low number being used against her. There's a world of difference there.

When did I EVER say she was a lock?

Okay that's fair. But sales numbers or not I still think the FEH poll (the original claim) is not a great argument for her due to the circumstances behind the poll. And I don't think the rest of the points mentioned hold a whole lot of weight either.[https://smashboards.com/threads/rat...y-206-celica-fire-emblem.453357/post-22801228]

 

[Icedragonadam]

Celica

Chance: 5%. It's too late for her. It's most likely the next FE rep is from 3 Houses and even I doubt the Season 1 pass will have a Three Houses character if Rex is anything to go by.

Want: 10%. Please, just no more FE reps right now. At least wait until season 2 or something for that.

Lycanroc Prediction: 1.12%

Nominate All DLC are 3rd party characters x5

 

[Mythra]

Okay

Chance: 50%
It is a coin toss for me tbh; SoV not selling well compared to Fates, and Three Houses getting close.
However if Nintendo noticed Celica's popularity in CYL2 (winning by a landslide in the female side) that could speak on her favor, and, depending on the theories on each one regarding Spirits, she doesn't have a standalone one strangely.


Want: 100%

I like cars, I like Toyota cars
While she has Beloved Zofia, she could focus only on Ragnarok to have fully dedicated tome user that could differentiate herself from the Robins.

 

[Troykv]

Celica:

Chance: 20%

Well... After think it a bit, Celica is an... interesting sittuation to say the least; with the obvious draw backs of don't being part of the newest Fire Emblem Game (the Three Houses Thing we only know the name of some generics dudes, and the protags), which is always seen as the ultimate tool to enter Smash unless you're a special case (Marth being the most popular FE Character in Japan 2002, also being one of the series' main faces and the original protag; and Chrom, that is a example of a Echo Fighter being created for popularity.

But in the other hand... there is nothing in particular that deconfirms her in the game... in fact, the extra lack of Celica Content is quite weird (specially when it would be easy too have another version of the Popular Celica's Map...), everything in Smash other that the Old Celica theme from Brawl, it's pretty Alm-Centric. And of course, we have the fact that they designed to do an Alm & Celica Spirit instead of just doing each one in their own; which is relevant because would example they would have done that with someone like Micaiah and Sothe that are always together in the former story... But they decided to have them in their own anyway (Spirits can deconfirm but I'm not going to completely rout out the possibilities until we get the first 5 characters).... Also this isn't a Kiddy Kong case where someone else is carrying the spirit to stand out more; we have a freaking Leif spirit, and nobody cares about Leif other that the Thracia fans.

Want: 50%

She is a character that I don't have a particular connection with it, other that I find her incredible pretty and quite fun to use in Fire Emblem Gaiden/Echoes; I mostly would like the character to make some of my closest friends happy because they love her (and I hope that includes the Overclass and the Old Priestess Outfit xD).

____

Predictions:

Lycanroc: 10.4%

Nomiantions:

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Toyota Celica

Chance: 30%. Opposum's write-up is pretty accurate to what I'm thinking. Plus Three Houses is much to recent, if Rex (from a 2017 game) only got a Mii Costume, a 2019 character doesn't fare better.

Want: 50%. I've played SoV, and it was good. I wouldn't mind a character from the game.

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Today was more divisive than I thought it would be.


I’m gonna post my scores later, but I feel I should just say, anti Celica people, please argue better. I may not see eye to eye with Opossum on a lot of smash stuff, but he made a very strong case for Celica. Most of the anti posts I felt are far weaker. Just saying you can sway people with strong arguments. I can tell you my score as of now is nearly 5x greater than it was originally.

I was originally thinking Celica would be a confusing pick, but after Opossum's post, I'm thinking of changing my score a little bit. He brought up a ton of good points that I wasn't previously aware of, like the official poll, her popularity, the strange lack of Celica content, and the joint spirit.

 

[AlphaSSB]

Celica

Chance: 1% - Before, her chances were much higher. But with the new FE game around the corner, if we're getting any new FE characters, it'd be from the new game rather than an old one. I don't think the 'lack of Celica content' means anything, nor do I believe her popularity will be enough for her.

Want: 0% - No. While I'll admit she has potential to be unique, Celica as a whole offers nothing that even remotely interests me. Not to mention that I'd much rather see newcomers from other series.

No nominations or predictions from me.

 

[Arcanir]

In terms of the sales argument, it should be noted that the source that's being argued over (that SoV only sold ~200K) is only using the Japanese sales. The link that VGsales gives only uses Media Create, which is a Japanese company that assesses data within that country, any data relating to other countries is not included and thus should not be exclusively used when assessing its total success across the world.

Even ignoring that, in America it charted seventh overall on the NPD's sale data for the month of May, without Eshop numbers being taken into account mind you, fifth overall for the UK, and second overall for Australia/New Zealand. To believe that Shadows of Valentia sold 200K, you have to believe that it moved less then 3000 units across the world despite it popping up on sales charts in three major areas, which is absurd. There's no way that would've happened unless you believe that May was a ridiculously slow month for gaming, which considering games like Mario Kart 8 DX and BotW were out, that's highly unlikely.

 

[Aurane]

Chance: 50%

Anyonr can drop a calculation down and day it actually amounts to anything. Then characters like Cloud, Wii Fit Trainer and other brain ****s come in and flip the logic. Regardless of who they are, what game their from and whatever popularity they've got, I always believe that every character has a chance. S'why I don't come here in the first place. I only came to see Opo whip some ass.

Want: No

I'm not going to jump on the, "we have enough of that" train considering FE representation is made up of four semi clones of Marth. That being said, I'm not a fan of FE and would rather a different character altogether. Unless its Lyn- look at those legs, that pony tail- that green- not BLUE- pony tail. Mm.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Celica, minus Alm:

Chance: 1%. The only way I see her getting in is as a Robin echo; probably one that exchanges damage for lack of limited tomes. Since it seems echoes are deconfirmed, she's out of the question. But then again, she's probably a spirit anyway, so she's most likely already deconfirmed. That and the fact that Byleth (NOT Edelgard) is far more likely knocks her chances way down.

Want: 50% as an Echo, 20% as a Non-Echo. I rated her separately, since I would like the idea of Robin having a "You don't like this mechanic? Have an echo that's the fighter without said mechanic" like Lucina is with Marth (with tipper), but it's Limited Tomes instead. However, in terms of full newcomers, I think their priorities should be elsewhere. Same old "Enough FE" that everyone else has been saying.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x5.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Chance: 1%

She isn't a character from the modern Fire Emblem era so that automatically rules her out.

Want: 50%

I prefer Alm but I get why people want Celica, because if variety since she uses both a sword and magic

Nomination: no fan favorites

 

[Erureido]

It's been some time since I last posted. I've felt burned out with Smash speculation this past month and thus led to my inactivity in this thread, so I'll probably only post on days that catch my eye from now on.

Like today.

Celica

Chance: 25%

I don't have time to link back what I said last time, but I think much of what I said last time still applies here. She is a lord from a recent Fire Emblem game, very popular as her CYL2 results show (as well as the fact she has some good support from the Smash fandom), and even appeared as a playable character in Fire Emblem Warriors. With the lack of SoV content in Smash, she seems plausible to get her own stage and a good number of SoV track with her potential inclusion too.

The primary issue I can think of is that she'd have to compete with a Three Houses rep, assuming he/she is added into the game for similar reasons that Corrin was in Smash 4. If that's the case, she loses the relevancy game big time.

Also, didn't Sakurai state that Nintendo decided on the DLC fighters back in 2015 (yes, I know the roster we have now was decided by Sakurai and his fellow developers that same year too)? If that's really the case, that might be another issue for Celica considering that her game was released two years after that date.

Want: 20%

Moveset-wise, she could have some interesting potential with her ability to use magic like Ragnarock or Seraphim. Other than that, she's not a character I'm interested in, mainly because I'm not a big fan of her character. She starts out promising in the first half of SoV and has some fun support conversations, but then Act IV comes along and her character went downhill in a pretty bad way by falling for the irredeemable Jedah's scheme that she comes across as a badly-done naive-princess like character in my eyes.

For a new FE rep, the only other characters from that series I'm really pinning for are Azura for her great moveset potential or characters that I really like from Fire Emblem like Takumi... and I doubt these characters will even be considered for Smash considering that a majority of them don't have the prominence that the lords have.

------

Nominations

Lora (Xenoblade Chronicles 2): x5

------

Two questions about this thread:

1) When will the directory on the first page be updated? I noticed that it's been outdated for months now, and I dig through a number of pages just to find the current directory with the characters scheduled to be rated over the net week and a half.

2) So according to my calculations, Professor Layton's day will be next week Thursday. That said, when does a new day in the RTC thread start? I ask that mainly because I'm hoping I'll be the first one to post when Layton's day goes live.

 

[Sari]

Also, didn't Sakurai state that Nintendo decided on the DLC fighters back in 2015 (yes, I know the roster we have now was decided by Sakurai and his fellow developers that same year too)? If that's really the case, that might be another issue for Celica considering that her game was released two years after that date.

You may be thinking of the base roster characters. The DLC lineup was officially finalized back in November of this year.

2) So according to my calculations, Professor Layton's day will be next week Thursday. That said, when does a new day in the RTC thread start? I ask that mainly because I'm hoping I'll be the first one to post when Layton's day goes live.

It's usually around 10 pm - 12 am EST.

 

[YoshiandToad]

Celica
Chance: 8%
Okay, if we get a Fire Emblem character NOT from the upcoming Three Houses, I think Celica is definitely the most likely candidate. Fellow popular female character Lyn is unfortunately likely locked out due to her Assist Trophy, as is reoccurring individual Tiki.
Celica, unlike say..Hector, does have recency on her side and IS had pushed her into Warriors despite her breaking the Fates, Shadow Dragon, Awakening game themes Warriors was based on.
Lastly she was popular enough to win the second Choose Your Legends, which is honestly nothing to sneeze at, beating out Camilla who placed third in the first one even.

All that said, I think we'll get a Three Houses character instead. I don't know how to feel about that.

Want: 20%
I don't mind Celica that much, but I feel Lyndis should really have gotten in over her. Celica does add some more magic, but honestly I feel like a mounted unit would be a more interesting addition at this point and offer something else from Fire Emblem that's totally new. Camilla is the most popular as far as I can tell(as well as being an axe user and popular) but I doubt she'll make the cut merely due to her outfit. If Mythra's spirit had to be censored because OMG legs, I can't even imagine how Camilla would be properly tackled as a fight.

Celica isn't an awful choice, and if I wasn't after something a bit more unique for the next Fire Emblem character I'd be pretty down with her joining. I just want a mounted unit or another transforming character outside Corrin first.

 

[GoodGrief741]

You may be thinking of the base roster characters. The DLC lineup was officially finalized back in November of this year.


It's usually around 10 pm - 12 am EST.

We don’t know when the DLC lineup was decided, that’s just when it was reported to us that it was finished.

 

[UtopianPoyzin]

I know that it might sound like this isn't true, but Celica is definitely my most wanted Fire Emblem character to add into the game. However, because I haven't actually played any of the Fire Emblem games, it might be hypocritical for me to judge a character that I have only learned about through reading the Fire Emblem wiki.

Opossum has done a fantastic job supporting Celica's cause though, which is why Celica is my number 1. Before today, she was number 2 behind Anna, but this could also be due to the definitive topicality of Celica at the moment, for she is the character being discussed currently and not Anna. So for that, while I could, I don't want to run the risk of misspeaking without any experience. So for that, I will abstain from providing ratings themselves.

Nominations: Spyro x5

Lycanroc Predictions: 6.4%