Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GhostYB]

He is from Sun and Moon

Oops, I saw someone say X and Y and wrote that down on accident lmaoo.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Whew thank you!

What characters can I put down because it seems like 200+ days are just there and not many characters to choose?

You can nominate anyone you want. If they have been rated, you’ll be nominating for a rerate.

The only ones you can’t nominate are those on the schedule, I can’t repost it right now but I think UtopianPoyzin or RealPokeFan11 has it handy.

 

[SPEN18]

Lycanroc

Chance: 1%
Another Gen 7 rep is pretty unlikely. Gen 8 is on the horizon and the Gen 7 games are well past their prime for marketing. Plus even if we somehow did get another Gen 7 rep, there's no guarantee it'd be Lycanroc.

Want: 0%
Pokémon make up a ridiculous portion of the roster. There was no need for any Gen 7 rep at all, so two is definitely overboard; there is simply no need to have a Pokémon from every Gen, and in the case of Gen 7 I am comfortable with just having Greninja as a representative of the 3DS games. This whole "saving a spot for Pokémon" is completely absurd, especially when the older Pokémon can still be caught in the newer games. I like Pokémon but I feel that what we have is adequate to represent the franchise as a whole. Sure, we don't have a Pokémon of every single type, but we have a good variety. Is Pokémon representation completely ideal? No, especially since Incineroar is in the game, but adding Lycanroc makes it even further from what I would consider a more ideal Pokémon roster.

I know I used a lot of this space to talk about Pokémon as a whole, but Lycanroc himself doesn't really excite me either. There's another character with earth powers (and many other abilities Lycanroc doesn't have) who has been waiting his turn for over 15 years and, crucially, comes from a new franchise that could really use the love way more than the pampered Pokémon franchise. The rich don't need to get richer.

Noms: x5 to my boy Andy

 

[Guynamednelson]

People whining about the amount of Pokemon when Capcom was even worse with oversaturating crossover fighters with one franchise should be another thing the traditional FGC mocks Smash's fanbase for. Their rosters were smaller than Ultimate's, with way less variety in series represented. To make matters worse, the only competitively viable team in MvC2 involves X-Men characters.

 

[RileyXY1]

People whining about the amount of Pokemon when Capcom was even worse with oversaturating crossover fighters with one franchise should be another thing the traditional FGC mocks Smash's fanbase for. Their rosters were smaller than Ultimate's, with way less variety in series represented. To make matters worse, the only competitively viable team in MvC2 involves X-Men characters.

Also, Pokemon is nothing like Fire Emblem, because unlike FE, the Pokemon reps aren't oversaturated with clones.

 

[shocktarts17]

Also, Pokemon is nothing like Fire Emblem, because unlike FE, the Pokemon reps aren't oversaturated with clones.

Yeah as a FE fan that makes me pretty sad too lol

 

[Garteam]

People whining about the amount of Pokemon when Capcom was even worse with oversaturating crossover fighters with one franchise should be another thing the traditional FGC mocks Smash's fanbase for. Their rosters were smaller than Ultimate's, with way less variety in series represented. To make matters worse, the only competitively viable team in MvC2 involves X-Men characters.

Capcom's been getting a bit better about roster balance recently (starting around MvC3), but there's no doubt they went a little overboard when 70% of MvC2's roster was either a X-Men or Street Fighter character. Personally, I prefer Smash's more laissez-faire approach to characters than MvCI's strict 2 characters per series rule (mainly because it just insured we got the most boring choices from each series).

Not to step on the toes of anyone who feels we have too many Pokemon, but I think it's a little different than the Fire Emblem situation. Pokemon's roster tends to hit a lot more thematic categories than the current Fire Emblem crop. Granted, we're currently double dipping in Electric, Water, Fire, and Dark types, but Lycanroc doesn't really have that problem (seeing how he doesn't share his element with anybody on the roster).

 

[RileyXY1]

Capcom's been getting a bit better about roster balance recently (starting around MvC3), but there's no doubt they went a little overboard when 70% of MvC2's roster was either a X-Men or Street Fighter character. Personally, I prefer Smash's more laissez-faire approach to characters than MvCI's strict 2 characters per series rule (mainly because it just insured we got the most boring choices from each series).

Not to step on the toes of anyone who feels we have too many Pokemon, but I think it's a little different than the Fire Emblem situation. Pokemon's roster tends to hit a lot more thematic categories than the current Fire Emblem crop. Granted, we're currently double dipping in Electric, Water, Fire, and Dark types, but Lycanroc doesn't really have that problem (seeing how he doesn't share his element with anybody on the roster).

Currently, only six Pokemon types (Ghost, Dragon, Ground, Rock, Bug, and Ice) are unrepresented with a playable character.

 

[SPEN18]

People whining about the amount of Pokemon when Capcom was even worse with oversaturating crossover fighters with one franchise should be another thing the traditional FGC mocks Smash's fanbase for. Their rosters were smaller than Ultimate's, with way less variety in series represented. To make matters worse, the only competitively viable team in MvC2 involves X-Men characters.

I mean, I don't pay much attention to what other companies do with their own crossover fighting games; Smash is the only fighting game I play. Also just because one company does something doesn't mean everybody should follow suit.

And apologies if my rating sounded like whining, because that's not the intention at all. It was all under the "want" section, which is just my opinion on what I think should be in the game.

I'll also add that I do enjoy Pokémon and played it a lot as a kid. So I'm not trying to hate on the franchise; I'm just content with its level of representation and don't have any desire to see more, especially if it's a Pokémon that's not one of my faves and comes from a Gen that I don't feel is significant enough to warrant two reps. And again, I'm not just baselessly hating on Gen 7 either. I played Sun/Moon and, while not my favorite Pokémon games, I enjoyed them.

Edit:

Also, Pokemon is nothing like Fire Emblem, because unlike FE, the Pokemon reps aren't oversaturated with clones.

As an aside, I actually don't mind the number of FE reps. I think we could've gone without Corrin and the Echoes, but I don't mind them. I don't really want another FE character unless it's Lyn, though.

 

[PeridotGX]

Like, a rock.

Chance: 10%. It doesn't look good. The Generation 7 rep was already wasted on Inciniroar, and no good generation has ever double dipped. He could happen, but I have my doubts.

Want: 40%. Generation 7 needs redemption after Sakurai decided the best character to represent it is an ugly mockery of the Fire Type. Lycanroc would actually have a unique and interesting moveset.

Nominations: Grovyle x5 (Not expecting high want scores anymore, seems people are tired of Pokemon)

 

[TheCJBrine]

Wererock:

Chance: 1% - I don't think we'll get another 7th-Gen Pokemon. If we get any Pokemon fighter DLC at all, it will most-likely be one from Generation 8.

Want: 10% - It's a Pokemon, so, sure I guess. Lycanroc isn't really a big one for me, though...

Nominations:

Creeper x3
Ninten x2

 

[GoodGrief741]

People whining about the amount of Pokemon when Capcom was even worse with oversaturating crossover fighters with one franchise should be another thing the traditional FGC mocks Smash's fanbase for. Their rosters were smaller than Ultimate's, with way less variety in series represented. To make matters worse, the only competitively viable team in MvC2 involves X-Men characters.

How’s that relevant to the topic at hand?

Also, Pokemon is nothing like Fire Emblem, because unlike FE, the Pokemon reps aren't oversaturated with clones.

Yeah, Pokémon’s worse. At least Fire Emblem characters are mostly clones (thus taking less development times), and most are by fan demand.

Nominations comin’ up.

 

[Guynamednelson]

How’s that relevant to the topic at hand?

I just wanted to rant about everyone saying "too many Pokemon" and why I think that's wrong without the popularity argument.

most are by fan demand

Only Marth and Chrom are.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I just wanted to rant about everyone saying "too many Pokemon" and why I think that's wrong without the popularity argument.

Only Marth and Chrom are.

Roy, Ike, Lucina and Robin are also very popular either with Smash fans or with Fire Emblem fans. The only odd man out is Corrin.

 

[Delzethin]

For what it's worth, the point about there not being an Alola stage yet is getting misconstrued a bit. It doesn't inherently imply there must be one in the works for DLC, or any conspiracies like that, but it does mean that if we did get one, it wouldn't be redundant or unusual compared to the others. Even the new music wouldn't be an issue, since while we got a few new remixes from base Sun and Moon, there is still so much more, especially from USUM in particular, that the base roster did not tap into in the slightest.

Seriously, the fact that Ultra Necrozma's theme isn't in is a goddamn crime.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Also, Pokemon is nothing like Fire Emblem, because unlike FE, the Pokemon reps aren't oversaturated with clones.

Thank you! I'm down for more Pokémon even if there's a lot of them. At most there's one semiclone of Pikachu. As for Fire Emblem, at least half of their cast is either echoes, semiclones, or take inspiration from each other. Literally all but 1 character from that franchise has a counter as their down special. Pokémon is a game all about movesets, and adding a new one always makes the game feel fresh in my opinion. Xurkitree especially would make a wild and crazy fighter in the world of Smash. Feel free to check out the support thread.

Seriously, the fact that Ultra Necrozma's theme isn't in is a goddamn crime.

Also the Ultra Beast theme is missing, which was one I was hoping for.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Daddy’s back, *******! (I hope somebody gets that reference) After an hour-long bus ride I have the nominations. Lots of people rated without nominating, I guess there were a lot of one-day participants that migrated from other threads.

Spoiler: Nominations post-Celica pre-Lycanroc

Over 200

Arle Nadja x250

200 - 151

Rhythm Girl x165
Concept: All DLC will be third-party x155

150 - 101

Nero Claudius (Fate) x125
Grovyle x120
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x120
Concept: More DLC x110
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x110
Mach Rider x110
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x110
Kat & Ana x105
Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x105
Reaper (Overwatch) x105

100 - 51

Professor Hector x94
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x90
Reimu Hakurei x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Impa x70
Lora (Xenoblade) x70
Hollow Knight x60
Andy (Advance Wars) x60
Porky Minch x59

50 - 25

Concept: Boss Rush x45
Sephiroth x40
Papyrus x35
9-Volt x34
Creeper x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Thrall (Warcraft) x25
Concept: SNK rep x25
Ravio x25

Under 25

Ninten x24
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Spyro x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x10
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Concept: Style Savvy rep x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Courier (Fallout) x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Concept: All DLC will be third-party passes 150 noms.

No fan favorites and Reaper kill 100 noms each.

Andy commands over 50 nominations.

SNK Rep and Ravio burst out of the under 25 club.

Electrick_EEL With Hayabusa, do you mean Ryu Hayabusa or Fighter Hayabusa?

For what it's worth, the point about there not being an Alola stage yet is getting misconstrued a bit. It doesn't inherently imply there must be one in the works for DLC, or any conspiracies like that, but it does mean that if we did get one, it wouldn't be redundant or unusual compared to the others. Even the new music wouldn't be an issue, since while we got a few new remixes from base Sun and Moon, there is still so much more, especially from USUM in particular, that the base roster did not tap into in the slightest.

Seriously, the fact that Ultra Necrozma's theme isn't in is a goddamn crime.

You can say that for any character, though. Yeah, Ice Climber has a stage, but we could get another one, be it Icicle Mountain or a new one and it wouldn’t be redundant. Splatoon could get a new stage for DLC and there wouldn’t necessarily get any overlap, same for Odyssey, BotW and Castlevania.

 

[GlaceonGD]

I was one of the lycanroc supporters before the final direct and still am so I might as well help out a bit.

LYCANROC:
Chance- 15-20%
Incineroar being confirmed as the gen 7 rep put a massive dent in lycanroc's chances, and even though I still support him getting in we don't even know if they would make another pokemon newcomer, and if they did if it would be lycanroc. Yes, pokemon is my favorite series represented in smash currently so I don't mind having more playable pokemon, and considering the game's popularity it would definitely sell. However, even with subtle hints and clues, I'm not sure we'll be seeing lycanroc in DLC, but I am almost 100% certain that if we get a DLC pokemon it will not be from gen 8.
Want- 80%
Lycanroc is not my most wanted fighter, nor my most wanted pokemon (that would be eevee, even though I know he has even less of a chance but a guy can dream), but it is still one of my personal favorites from the series and my favorite gen 7 mon by a long shot. Considering how none of the currently playable pokemon are one's I particularly like, I'm still holding out hope that one I do have a greater love for gets in the game eventually, even if it's in the next installment.

Well, that's really all I have to say on the matter, looking forward to the game's release tomorrow.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

Once again I'm late to the party, just like Dovahkiin's day. Sooo here we go.

The bork side of the moon. (Sorry that was awful)
Chance: 10%
Want: 70%
Incineroar crashed the party for Gen 7. As much as I like Incineroar, there were a lot of better choices from Gen 7. I can name quite a few off the top of my head. Decidueye, Mimikyu, Tapu Koko, Buzzwole, Xurkitree especially, and today's character Lycanroc. Incineroar is our Gen 7 rep, which heavily decreases the chances of another Gen 7 mon, or another Pokémon in general until next Smash game. It has 3 different forms, Midday, Midnight, and my favorite, Dusk Lycanroc. It is Ash's main partner in the Alolan anime, and has shown to be a worthy fighter. It would also be our first rock type entering the arena. It is a fast and powerful Pokémon capable of using many rock type moves, like Stone Edge, Rock Slide, and its exclusive move Accelerock. I saw Delzethin 's moveset video with slightly different moves on Lycanroc and will link it here.

It definitely was a missed opportunity, but at the end of the day, this is probably gonna be the best Smash game the world has ever seen, and we have Sakurai and his team to thank for that. Let's hope DLC will be full of amazing characters to come!

Chibi Robo: 23.14%

Reaper x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Lycanroc

Chance - 2.5% - His time has passed. Incenaroar has taken much of his chance, being the designated Pokemon representing the new generation. Typically Pokemon promotes the newest generation, and the next one is coming soon enough that keeping Alola around doesn't seem too smart.

Want - 40% - Not really. I don't hate him, but I find him rather boring.


Predictions

Chibi Robo - 6.34% - Dead franchise.

Nominations

Dark Matter X 5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Lycanroc
Chance: 1%
Incineroar took that delectable Sun and Moon advertisement spot, which if I'm honest is all Pokemon choices ever feel like. Even Incineroar is old news at this point with Meltan and Let's Go being the actual current games.

Want: 10%
This is neither Meowth nor Eevee and thus my want drops considerably.
Sun and Moon was the first *new* game of the series I skipped thus a lack of connection to him and whilst I'd have been fine with him before, I'd rather we have either of the two I mentioned who are at least iconic and long lasting popular Pokemon, or at least we get another popular Pokemon from an missing generation like Blaziken, Sceptile or Gardevoir from Gen 3 for example.

 

[Erureido]

Lycanroc

Chance: 5%

With Pokemon's tendency to add newcomers based on the upcoming generation, I feel like Lycanroc's time has passed (doesn't necessarily rule him out completely, but it keeps his chances low). A generation 8 Pokemon is a more likely possibility with the gen 8 games coming out in 2019, and thus GameFreak potentially promoting them with a Pokemon from those games as a DLC fighter.

Lycanroc still has some notable characteristics though: it's one of the most prominent generation 7 Pokemon, rather popular, and is even Ash's main Pokemon in the Sun & Moon anime. Still doubtful he'll make the cut though.

Want: 75%

If it's the Midday or the Dusk Form, I'm all for it. If it's the Midnight Form, no thanks. That form doesn't appeal to me in the slightest.

------

Nominations

Lora (Xenoblade Chronicles 2): x5

 

[Sari]

It's officially happening guys...

R.I.P. Concept: All DLC will be First Party

 

[Kotor]

Joker's in

 

[RealPokeFan11]

BREAKING NEWS: JOKER FROM PERSONA 5 REVEALED TO BE FIRST CHARACTER FOR FIGHTERS PASS 1!

 

[RileyXY1]

Also, Concept: More DLC is officially confirmed.

 

[Jomosensual]

JOKER!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Ridrool64]

This is very bad news for the following characters:

• Tails
• Dr. Eggman
• NiGHTS
• Billy Hatcher
• Sonic rep (other)
• Bayonetta rep
• ... (sigh) Arle Nadja

I'd have to be foolish to give any of them more than a one at this point. I almost consider them outright disconfirmed.

 

[RileyXY1]

I'm thinking that the DLC for this game will cater more towards the Japanese audience.

 

[Jomosensual]

Also, Concept: More DLC is officially confirmed.

I took it as the first pack of the 5 is a Persona 5 pack, not that there are multiple seasons. You could be right though

 

[RileyXY1]

This is very bad news for the following characters:

• Tails
• Dr. Eggman
• NiGHTS
• Billy Hatcher
• Sonic rep (other)
• Bayonetta rep
• ... (sigh) Arle Nadja

I'd have to be foolish to give any of them more than a one at this point. I almost consider them outright disconfirmed.

Why are you saying that? A bunch of third party rules have been broken in the past. Now, 3rd party companies can have 3 franchises represented in the game.

 

[DaUsername]

Fixed Schedule through day 235

226: Joker (Persona 5)

We've been sniped by disconfirmations several times, but I think this is the first time we've been sniped by a confirmation.

 

[Ridrool64]

Because there's only 5 spots. Thus, if Joker is here, he's presumably the one and only SEGA character we're going to get.

Only hope for any of them is that we don't get any new third party companies nor any first parties in Smash.

 

[NeonBurrito]

Considering Joker's inclusion, I'm pretty sure speculation is pointless from this point onwards. It's become clear that Nintendo is really just going to be doing whatever they want with this DLC. There were much more reasonable Atlus picks, like Jack Frost, due to him being the icon of the SMT series as well as being able to promote the upcoming SMTV. But nope, Joker's here, despite having literally no Nintendo connection, if it weren't for a 3DS spinoff released solely in Japan a few days ago.

Like I said earlier:

Every single one of the five DLC characters is going to be a third party.

Nearly every single popular first party pick seems to either be an Assist Trophy (Skull Kid, Isaac, Springman) or made into an Mii Costume, with lots of emphasis on not being playable (Rex). Really, the only big first party pick left is Bandana Waddle Dee, and I can very easily see Sakurai passing over him due to how he might think that Kirby is represented fine enough, mainly due to Kirby being the main character in the story, plus his general avoidance of newer Kirby games.

So unless we do get another Pirahna Plant "WTF?!?" character, or another character used from promotion (Edelgard? Melmetal?), I really do think its solely third parties from here on out.

As for which third parties we could get, I do think there's a whole lot to choose from:

• Geno / Sora / Slime / Erdrick / Crono / Bravely Default character / new Final Fantasy character (Square Enix rep hinted at by Vergeben)
• Doomguy / Vault Boy / Dragonborn (Bethesda has talked to Nintendo about Smash)
• Rayman (Ubisoft is on board, Rabbid Peach is a spirit)
• Steve / Banjo & Kazooie / Master Chief (lots of recent Microsoft + Nintendo collaborations as of late)
• Monster Hunter / Dante / Leon Kennedy / Phoenix Wright (big Capcom picks)
• Lloyd Irving / Klonoa (big Namco picks)

While I do wish some more first party picks were used (still out here waiting for Karate Joe), I just don't think its happening. Very few Nintendo first parties left have the same buying power that third parties do, which I think is kind of unfortunate, but what I think doesn't really matter in the big scheme of things.

it really does seem like it'll be entirely 3rd party from here on out. I can't see a single first party character (other than maybe Waluigi being promoted from AT) topping the absolute "WTF" factor this reveal had. With Reggie's emphasis on "fighters you would never expect," speculation has done a complete 180°. Popular and expected characters like Bandana Waddle Dee and Geno seem incredibly unlikely to me now. Bring on 2B and Sans.

Spoiler

I think Goku is not only a legitimate possibility now, but is incredibly likely. Nintendo really seems to be going for shock appeal with this DLC, if Piranha Plant and Joker are any indication.

 

[Kotor]

This right here is appropriate. ~YOU'LL NEVER SEE IT COMING~

I was probably gonna abstain on Joker's day because I never touched Persona 5.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Holy ****ing **** that was so awesome. More than made up for the sadness of RDR2 not winning GOTY.

This spells doom for 80% of my most wanted but it’s so great. Persona 5’s great, Joker’s great, the reveal was great. Holy ****.

 

[RandomAce]

You guys were rating Lycanroc without me? Oh nah... Anyways, I’ll try to finish off before the day ends, I thought this through and I’m ready to present what I have.

Lycanroc:

Chance: 35%

In all honesty, although it’s not that big, I still think Lycanroc has a decent shot. For instance, the idea of a “Lycanroc DLC Pack” is still open, with the lack of a S/M stage and music from US and UM are also lacking with some even from the originals, a Lycanroc pack wouldn’t feel redundant to bring in for DLC.

There’s also the fact that with Rex and Spring Man out of the running for being seemingly too early, the same could be possible for Gen 8 (if it is even a Gen 8). Since both came out around 2017, it means that Gen 8 (if in fact real) would only have about 1 year into development. It would be way too early, even from Pokemon standards to get a character at that point. However, 2017 was the year that Lycanroc began it’s full prime. It’s Dusk form has been revealed and Lycanroc was now pioneering Gen 7 with a prominence in the anime, a role in Pokémon “I Choose You” with the Midnight Form, merchandise, and popularity.

In fact, Lycanroc was used to promote US and UM recently in the summer despite Let’s Go Pikachu and Eevee already being revealed in the public, meaning that Lycanroc is still a selling point and Nintendo still having their eyes on it. But that isn’t the only thing Lycanroc has going for it.

Moveset potential is another thing. Lycanroc still has a lot to diversify itself from the roster, with obvious stuff having a different thematic moveset being around geokenisis and utilizing many Rock Type moves like Stone Edge, Rock Climb, Stealth Rock, and the more recent signature Accelerock, and some of the forms featuring a quadruped build, that albeit maybe harder to create, is still feasible in Sakurai’s range. But there’s stuff even deeper that make Lycanroc more interesting for players, like a potential mechanic that switched between the different forms, or a boost that Dusk gets by triggering into it’s powers from Midnight.

Lycanroc may have a lot of competition with other potential newcomers, but seeing how Lycanroc is still marketed and a popular Gen 7 Pokémon that could sell, along with a potential unique moveset to derive from that can bring something enticing for players. I say, Lycanroc still has some ground to stand on and isn’t out yet.

Want: 100%
It’s one of my favorites, or possibly my favorite Pokémon. Their sleeker simpler designs, the lore behind them, and just a love for wolves and similar candids are what made me support them, and their potential new play style is something that keeps me on board. There may be some obstacles ahead of us, but I’m still willing to persevere and support the Wolf trio.

Also, I’m sending this pretty late, and am aware of Joker now, but I still stand by my points. Plz let this count TCT~Phantom , I couldn’t send it until now.

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Uhh does Joker count as a Fan-Favorite?

 

[Ridrool64]

Well he's decently popular, but I wouldn't say he is among the Smash fanbase.

 

[RealPokeFan11]

More breaking news: Alpharad is freaking out on Twitter over Joker's inclusion. Funnily enough, he put him in the unlikely section for his Smash DLC video, and predicted the future.

I wanted gameplay dammit, but I'm pretty excited for this mostly because of Persona 5's music tracks. :D