Well...down, but not quite out. Not yet, anyway.
Lycanroc
So, I underestimated how early the cutoff date for content in Ultimate would be. Despite Sakurai's choice of games to namedrop in his column,
there is actually no content in the base game from Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon whatsoever aside from one alternate palette for the female Pokémon Trainer. No stage, no Assist Trophies or Spirits of 'mons introduced in USUM, not even any music! It's all from the base Sun and Moon, and between that and how little content there is from Splatoon 2, it seems like the cutoff was some time in early 2017. And while two Lycanroc forms existed earlier than then, it took until August 2017 for the Dusk form to be revealed and this character's full potential to be realized. Seems like Lycanroc's chances for the base game were over before they began...but is there anything left now?
To answer that, we need to ask a few questions:
First:
Would the DLC team even look at a second Pokémon newcomer? That answer's actually pretty simple: Sure, because Smash games have doubled up on newcomers from the same franchise several times before. Smash 4 had two Mario newcomers in the base game and, infamously, two Fire Emblem characters in its own DLC (while one was a previously absent veteran, the idea is similar). Brawl had the Pokémon Trainer and Lucario both. And Melee had two Mario newcomers, two from Fire Emblem, and
four characters from Ocarina of Time alone! Even Ultimate may have already done it, depending on how you count Daisy, Dark Samus, and Richter!
With how many times we've seen Sakurai double dip in the same game before, a second new Pokémon is very much on the table.
But why would they stick to Gen 7, then?
Wouldn't they want to add someone from Gen 8 to promote those games as they come out next year? Here's where it gets complicated, because this...isn't as clear cut as it looks. Smash has a history of
not jumping the gun on newcomers before their games have had time to be played--the only exception so far is Roy, a clone character added late to Melee whose game was actually supposed to be out before Melee but suffered a delay late in development! Even Corrin, derided in some circles as being "blatant advertising", is not so clear an example, because Fire Emblem Fates made its debut in Japan in June 2015, a full 7 1/2 months
before Corrin became DLC! And with Sakurai confirming that DLC picks were locked in about a month ago, with the last of it set to be out around only 2-3 months after the usual November releases of Pokémon games, and with the knowledge that Corrin was chosen around spring 2015 when Fates was almost finished being developed, it legitimately brings Gen 8's viability for this DLC wave into question.
While games set for release in the first half of 2019, like Fire Emblem: Three Houses, are likely still in play, there's a very realistic chance that Gen 8 will be hitting shelves too late to make the cut. Still 100% on the table if a second wave of DLC happens, but jury's out on whether
that comes to pass.
Which leads us to one more question:
Why Lycanroc? What's so special about this thing?
Well, actually quite a bit. Despite taking until 2017 to hit its stride, Lycanroc is actually a really big deal within Gen 7. Enough to have been featured as a highlight of USUM and promoted
heavily for that entire span and even still has a presence now (enough to get a shout out last July on
the NoA Twitter account during Let's Go's hype cycle).
Enough to have the lead role on Ash's team in the anime right now just like Greninja before it, a role it's had since August of last year, complete with a still-ongoing character arc about proving its worth as a team member and overcoming personal flaws that caused it to lose battles previously.
Enough to even rank high on popularity polls! Check out this one from Japan earlier this year:
It's legitimately Gen 7's counterpart to Lucario and Zoroark. It just doesn't get much credit outside the Pokémon fandom nor among Smash speculators because it's not a starter.
But
what potential does Lycanroc have as a fighter? Well, that one's easy enough to answer. For one, being a Rock type means having mastery over earth-elemental attacks, an element that we've never seen a moveset built around before (pour one out for Isaac, guys, that late AT reveal
still hurts). For two, the Midday and Dusk forms are both feral quadrupeds, and while we've seen a couple quadrupedal fighters already in Ivysaur and Duck Hunt, we've never had the opportunity to see a full blown beast character in Smash yet. And the Dusk form in particular has a weird mishmash of two personalities that are normally complete opposites: Patient and pacifistic by default, preferring only to fight when absolutely necessary, yet containing a berserker-like fury unleashed with careful precision when in battle. It's like a monk and a fight clubber did a fusion dance!
None of this means we
need to "represent" these concepts in Smash or anything,
but what it does mean is Lycanroc offers several unique ideas, both thematically and in its moveset, that Smash has never seen before and may not get the chance to tap into again for a long time. This "now or never" line of thought contributed to Corrin and his/her unique shapeshifting powers getting the nod last time, and there's a chance it could happen again.
Overall,
Lycanroc is what I'd call a "conditional" DLC candidate: Someone who needs a certain thing to happen in order to stand a chance (in this case, the Smash devs taking another look at Gen 7 and/or Nintendo bringing it up as part of their whole collab), but would have a legitimate shot if it
were to happen. Lycanroc may have fell victim to reaching its peak too late for the base roster, and may be skirting with falling victim to being too late again with Gen 8 coming soon, but there
is still a window in this first wave of DLC. Still a face of its generation, and still checking off many boxes at once when it comes to being a unique choice of newcomer, the door hasn't closed on Lycanroc's chances just yet.
Chance: 33%
I've learned a lot from all the bumps in the road over the past year. Met some people, rallied a support base together, made several mistakes that I can't take back that have made enemies I never wanted to make. Were I able to, I'd go back and do things differently, but I can't, and now all I can do is try to mend the bridges I broke and hope they're accepted.
Despite it all, this is still a character I've gained a personal connection to, something that doesn't happen often for me. I've been invested to a fault at times, had old wounds from the past be reopened, and stressed out over how to convince others to hear me out...because, well, the situation hits home for me in a way. I'll spare you the details.
I just hope that this oft-overlooked character with so much going for it can find redemption the way Robin did, instead of being one more example of someone who never got a chance to compete just because they were not someone else.
Want: 100%
Nominations: Splatoon-style Free Updates x5
Chibi-Robo prediction: 4.87%
The Mii costume will drag his rating down, but does it actually destroy his chances? That'll be the big question tomorrow, I think.
![[Maple]](/data/avatars/l/410/410915.jpg?1575327283){kind=avatar}
).