Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[Awakining]

Dovahkiin:

Chance: 10%

I believe that Dovahkiin is probably the likeliest candidate from Bethesda, but I don't think that any of them has a high chance of making the cut. Nintendo may surprise me, but I'm relatively confident that this won't happen for the foreseeable future.

Want: 0%

I've never been interested in The Elder Scrolls, and I'm generally against meme-y characters. Unfortunately, Dovahkiin just so happens to possess a mix of attributes which I find individually unappealing.

Nominations: Porky x5

Celica Prediction: 16.5%

 

[PublicServant]

Dovahkiin: 1%

Dear lordy loo, the bias is strong with this one. So Bethesda talked to the Ninty boys briefly about Smash and we be assuming that they would be pushing for a rep from one of their wholly-owned properties.

As mentioned in me Doom Slayer review:

To those thinking the Dovahkiin has a chance... please stop, you've had one too many flasks of Sleeping Tree sap. This person has less character than the Doom Slayer (no doubt due to being a literal blank canvas where the player fills in the details, up to and including gender and race), only has a single port to his name (as opposed to five plus a console-exclusive title) and whose home game doesn't exactly possess any sort of notable legacy on par with Doom being "the king of the FPS genre". Sure, Bethesda would likely prefer a home-grown game's inclusion, but I'm sure that they'd still get the appropriate amount of financial royalties as Doom's publisher from the free advertising and exposure that Smash would bring.

And a lot of the talking points for this fighter can also apply (often moreso) to the Doom Slayer:

• Both are huge franchises with massive, long-term followings (with Doom 1 beating the first ES game (ES Arena) by one year)
• Both are rated M17+ by the ESRB, requiring some censoring and thus a slight diminishment of their faithfulness to the source material (and as I said in my previous post, OTT gore was never Doom's thing to begin with until Brutal Doom and the subsequent flurry of gore mods came around, so removing that should not detract from his inclusion)
• Both share the meme of being port overdosed to the point of running on everything (though Doom is typically the one more attributed to the meme thanks to both spawning it and having proof that almost all of these ridiculous ports (from scope monitors and handheld graphics calculators to Macbook Pro touch bars and an arcade machine within a fanmade Doom WAD) are actually capable of running Doom!)

And yes, I know he has the potential for a unique moveset, but that can go for most newcomers. Personally and if Nintendo weren't planning on putting too much effort in him, I could only really see Dovahkiin being a Robin Clone with a permanent but heavier bronze sword, slightly different spells running off of a universal Magicka bar and an abnormally loud force push for a Neutral B which can be charged.

Want: Dear lord no! (0%)

BTW: I know this point is exclusively related to the Doom Slayer as opposed to Dovahkiin (well, this post for the most part but especially this point), but those who say that Doom isn't popular in Japan clearly haven't heard of the Japanese Community Project and the related works of its individual members (a notable one being the renowned artist and modder Nanka Kurashiki (倉敷楠花)).

 

[shocktarts17]

abstain

Nominations: Ravio x5

 

[Kotor]

"It is with my utmost pride that I, Godd Poward, rate Dovakhin from The Elder Scrolls® V: Skyrim™ a solid 100% rating of chance and an ∞% chance of want, but for the purpose of this game, my want score will have to be 100%. Nintendo clearly went to Bethesda headquarters to discuss something. I think we can safely rule there being any Bethesda content when Super Smash Bros Ultimate launches on December 7th. It's a tad shame. All my most wanted characters never made it to Smash. However, the fact that talks happened recently, and with the recent announcement of there being DLC, it's plainly obvious to me that Dovahkin is a lock for DLC."

"I believe Dovahkin will be revealed at E3 2019 during Nintendo's usual Direct stuff they do. Someone like Dovahkin deserves to be revealed at a grand stage like the Electronic Entertainment Expo. Alongside Dovahkin's reveal as a playable character, Bethesda will announce that The Elder Scrolls® V: Skyrim™ will be coming to Nintendo 3DS on November of 2019. The Elder Scrolls® V: Skyrim™ holds a very special place in my heart. Ever since I bought the game for PC when it came out on 2011, I have fallen in love with the world and its characters. Every console I buy, I make sure to get a copy of The Elder Scrolls® V: Skyrim™. It's always a different experience every time I play it. I hope that by adding Dovahkin to Smash, Smash fans that have never played this wonderful gem will be compelled to buy it themselves."

Spoiler: Actual Rating

The talks Nintendo had with Bethesda doesn't automatically mean it was for Smash, it could've been for something else entirely different. If you want to default to Smash, we do have Rathalos from Monster Hunter as a boss and no character or stage to go alongside it. Maybe a dragon or some other iconic enemy from Skyrim as a boss would work. A mii outfit of Dovahkin perhaps, or even Spirits since we have Let's Go Pikachu and Eevee spirits (RIP Pikachu).

My overall rating towards Dovahkin is this

Dovahkin as a playable character: 1% chance | Abstain Want
Dovahkin as a Mii outfit: 10% chance

Boss Rush x5

 

[WaddleMatt]

Dovakhiin:

Chance - 1%

If we get a Bethesda rep I am betting on Doomguy but I don't think Dovakhiin is impossible just unlikely since Elder Scrolls really has no long history on Nintendo platforms. Also I just really don't see Nintendo going for this over other 3rd parties.

Want - Abstain

Never played Skyrim.

Nominations: Rhythm Girl x5

 

[ProfPeanut]

Abstaining today. I hope anyone thinking of bringing up Bethesda's recent bumbles knows that those events happened after the DLC was decided.

Nominations
Andy x5

 

[MacDaddyNook]

Dovahkiin

Chance: 25%
It's not the greatest chance, but it isn't bad for a third party either (and I am still keeping my scores on the low side since we only know 5 most spots are open which means much greater competition). Skyrim is on the Switch and even has exclusive Zelda content included in it, so we know Nintendo is willing to collaborate with Bethesda enough to entrust them with one of their IPs. And then we have the statement by Bethesda that not only did Nintendo talk to them about future support for the Switch, but also specifically for Smash Bros. We don't know how the talks went, but it at least shows there is some sort of chance.

Want: 55%
To be honest, Fallout is my Bethesda series of choice. I really never got into Elder Scrolls after being turned off by Morrowind's dullness, but Skyrim does look like a pretty cool fantasy adventure. The out of place nature of the series is also something I find amusing, and it would be hilarious to see a more realistic humanoid going toe to toe with the likes of Isabelle.

 

[Jomosensual]

Don't know who Dovahkin is so abstaining again

Noms:
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[FancySmash]

Fus ro dah

Chance: 20%
While I don't think a Bethesda rep is the likeliest 3rd party western representative, it still has a good chance. Dovakhin arguably has a better shot than Doom Guy, relevance and all that, but I'm skeptical that Bethesda and Nintendo talking instantly means Smash character, might we all remember Katalina?

Want: Abstain
Haven't played Skyrim, so I really have no opinion whatsoever here. Even if I had to pick a Bethesda character, I wouldn't be able to single one out, I have no experience with any of their games.

Predictions: Celica
Immediately guessing 12.41%. I'm expecting a similar air to Meltan tomorrow...

Nominate: Professor Hector x5

 

[Cabbagehead]

Dragonborn

Chance: 10%
I guess Bethesda talking to Nintendo could mean something. It could also amount to Bethesda begging like a child for their character to be in Smash. We don't know.

And even if a Bethesda character happens, it's not like the Dragonborn is the only option. A Fallout character, Doomguy...and probably some other options (I admittedly don't care too much for Bethesda) exist, as well, each of them just as iconic as the last.

Want: 1%
I could see my older brother thinking Dragonborn is cool. But I, personally, couldn't care less. Even outside my inherent disdain for third-parties taking over Smash, I've never been interested in Elder Scrolls, beyond watching clips of the abundant glitches that plague their games. Those are pretty funny, but not worth a spot on Smash's roster, I must say.

Nominations: Porky ×5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

FUS RO DAH! (Jesus Christ I'm late to the party.)
Chance: 25%
Want: 65%
Look! A Bethesda rep that would actually be cool in Smash! I already talked about Doom Marine being a poor choice, and Vault Boy feels like an unnecessary joke addition. (Especially after the recent dumpster fire called Fallout 76...) Bethesda is still somewhat in damage control, but the situation is improving. Dovahkiin feels like the best choice for a Bethesda rep. His game is on Switch, and and despite being from a rated M game, wouldn't be too violent, or lose appeal from a tone-down. (If he even needs one.) This was Doom Marine's biggest problem. Just remove the blood and you're good to go. Bethesda was also interviewed and they briefly mentioned Smash. They said they were thinking about it, which could be a potential sign. The Dragonborn comes with a lot of moveset potential based on his weaponry. He can wield one and two handed swords, axes, bows, maces, and even cast spells. And let's not forget his signature "FUS RO DAH!" Also Kirby screaming it would be hilarious.

Celica prediction: 8.73%

Reaper x5

 

[Lasatar]

Dovakhin:

Chance: 5%. I really don't see anything Bethesda getting into Smash. It's just not happening.

Want: 0%. I don't really have any attachment to any Bethesda game, including Skyrim. I tried to get into it, to see what all the hype was about, but it just wasn't for me. I couldn't care less about anything from it getting into Smash, and frankly, I'd prefer if it didn't.

Nominations: Reimu x5

 

[Hollywoodrok12]

Skyrim Rep:

Chance: 10%. I want to believe he's the most likely of the Bethesda reps, but I'm not sure. I know about Bethesda saying they talked with Nintendo about Smash, but I'm not sure it means anything, since if Nintendo had a strict NDA on Bethesda, it would be broken, and It doesn't sound very believable that Wayforward (Shantae) has to be under an NDA for a PNG file, while Bethesda isn't for an actual fighter.

Want: 20%. I don't know much about Skyrim, but I feel that he's the most iconic of all possible Bethesda reps. However, I don't know enough about Skyrim to warrant wanting him in. I'm just trying to write enough sentences for my Noms to count.

Nomination: No Fan Favorites x5

Edit: Changed my mind on want score

 

[Troykv]

Well... I arrived too late again to give a decent answer (and personally I found the Dragonborn's sittuation a bit weird for someone that doesn't know anything about Bethesda and related companies). Not even enough to give a guess xD.

___________________

Predictions:

Celica: 15.5%

Nominations

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[PeridotGX]

Dough Vatican

Double abstsin

Noms: Grovyle x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Dovakhin

Chance - 10% - Bethesda currently has decent relationship with Nintendo, and Skyrim is currently one of their flagships. His game was ported over fairly early on in the Switch's lifespan, and Skyrim on the go was an early selling point. Because I see him as having less move set problems with his game, compared to Doomguy, he probably will get in over him in my opinion.

Want - 35% - Not really. I don't care much about him, and there are better choices than him, I think.

Predictions

Celica - 6.34% - Not likely, I think.

Nominations

Reimu Hakurei x5

 

[YoshiandToad]

Dovakhin

Chance: 2%
Honestly I don't see it happening. Even as big as Skyrim is(and it IS big, no mistake), I just don't feel Dovakhin as a character really stands out that well?

Want: 5%
I liked Skyrim just fine, but I must confess I never really got attached to the Dragonborn as a character. During my playthrough he always just felt like an avatar character for me to explore the world with since he could be basically any race or gender. I guess it's a bit hypocritical since we have those in Robin and Corrin too and thus Dovakhin wouldn't be THAT weird, but Robin, as a character, left a bigger impression on me than Dovakhin did.

Also, you know; Third party which I'm not really down with.

 

[PapillonXtreme]

Dovahkiin

Chance: 15%
With Bethesda talking to Nintendo about Smash, it's possible that we're getting a Bethesda rep as DLC, but I wouldn't count on it. Out of all the Bethesda characters they could have in Smash, Dovahkiin seems to be the most likely candidate due to Skyrim being very popular. Despite being another M-rated character, he's not really that violent unlike Doomguy. However, I give him and pretty much any Bethesda characters a small rating in chance because Bethesda is a Western company and that really hurts them, especially since considering what happened to Shovel Knight and Shantae in this game. He also has stiff competition to not only his fellow Bethesda characters (such as Doomguy and Vault Boy), but to other Western characters as well (like Steve from Minecraft).

Want: 5%
I like Dovahkiin and all, but I just don't think he fits in Smash at all. Besides, there are other characters that have higher priority than Dovahkiin as DLC.

Nominations:
3rd Party Character from an unrepped company x5

 

[DaUsername]

Todd Howard
Chance: 1%
I don't really see the Bethesda character in Smash thing happening. The only reason for one of their characters to be i Smash would be "they released some of their games on the Switch", despite the fact that other western third parties have supported Nintendo for longer and haven't gotten anything.
Want: N/A
I haven't actually played his game yet so I can't really give a fair rating.

Celica prediction: 2%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Abstain


Nominating SephirothX 5


Day over, rate celica predict Lycanroc.

 

[Perkilator]

Celica

Chance: Abstain. Chances are greater, IMO, that we’ll get Edelgard to promote Three Houses, but we could get Celica instead, with that one tiny chance.

Want: 100% Yes, she has a sword. But she’s also got badass magic, so who gives a hoot?

Noms: Lycanroc x10

 

[Sari]

Celica

Chance: 15%

Pros:

• She came in first place of the female’s division of the 2nd FE Heroes Choose Your Legends voting ballot (and all of last years winners are already represented in Smash). That should say something about her popularity considering how successful FE Heroes has been.
• Adding on to her popularity, she appeared in FE Warriors while the other protagonist of Gaiden/SoV (Alm) didn’t. Her appearance in Warriors was apparently due to a last minute request from either Nintendo or IS.
• Would easily beat out Alm as she's definitely the more favored of the two and would offer more unique moveset potential (which was one of the reasons why Sakurai chose Robin over Chrom for SSB4).
• SoV's early 2017 release shouldn’t be an issue at all regarding her chances as DLC, as the DLC lineup was just recently finalized and Celica hasn't been sent to Assist trophy/Mii costume hell yet (not that I think mii costumes are an automatic deconfirmation). Corrin was able to be in SSB4 less than a year after their game released in Japan.

Cons:

• A Three Houses character would probably have priority as the next FE rep.
• Sakurai himself has stated that there are a ton of FE reps already.

Overall I think Celica has a decent chance for DLC and would probably be the most likely FE newcomer if they were to play it safe instead of experimenting with Three Houses. That said however, the two con points I wrote above are really holding her back.

Want: 100%
Celica is my most wanted character who hasn’t been officially revealed/deconfirmed yet. Despite it's issues I loved SoV as well as Celica's character and design. She'd work great as a magic based fighter to differentiate from the usual Marth/Roy moveset, and if all else fails I'd argue that she would be great as a Robin echo/semiclone (where she'd always have a regular sword and magic would be based on a Pichu-like recoil system like in Gaiden).

Lycanroc chance prediction: 1.36%

Nominations:
Concept: SNK rep x5

Noms: Lycanroc x10

Lycanroc is being rated tomorrow so your noms won't count.

 

[ProfPeanut]

Celica

Chance: 10%
While the door's still open to Celica, Nintendo themselves seem more likely to choose a Three Houses advance representative, or even someone from Fates/Awakening. I'd have trusted Sakurai more to pick form an older Fire Emblem game, but I don't see her as having an outstanding moveset concept to make her more appealing.

Want: 20%
I could see her work as either a Robin echo, if not a semi-clone. But I wouldn't really prioritize her in a DLC pass - heck, I wouldn't be prioritizing Fire Emblem candidates in general.


Prediction:
Lycanroc: 0.8%

Nominations
Andy x5

 

[Ridrool64]

The Caring Warrior Princess Priestess Celica

Chance: 25%. While I don't think a 3H character is guaranteed, they do not leave a whole lot of breathing room for Celica or any other FE Hopefuls. She has no standard Spirit, so... yeah. I think her chances exist, but they aren't much since 3H is something Nintendo wants to work with. Unless, of course, 3H is too new to get a character.

Want: 45%. She uses magic, which helps her stand out from the Marth Army, but still uses swords which isn't very unique at this point. However, I do like her game and her character, so she can get a pass in my book. I think she'd be nice.

Nominations: Arle Nadja x 5. Lycanroc prediction: 13.19%.

 

[SPEN18]

Celica

Chance: 3%
Was never super likely for base, and is even less likely now. She is a unique and popular character within the Fire Emblem fanbase, but just having a remake somewhat late in the 3DS's lifecycle and getting a couple alts in a phone game likely isn't enough to put her over the top. Plus if Fire Emblem gets a DLC rep, it'll likely be from Three Houses, unless somehow Three Houses wasn't far enough along in development when the characters were chosen (and if this is the case I still don't think they'd pick Celica).

Want: 0%
Meh. I like Fire Emblem, and I don't mind Celica's personality, but she's just not the character I would pick from this series. My #1 pick for Fire Emblem would be Lyn, and it would be a bit odd for me to get anyone from the series besides her. But even if I don't get Lyn, I'd still take Hector or Ephraim (and maybe even Wrys) over Celica. In general, I'm pretty content with Fire Emblem's representation with the exception of Lyn not being there.

Man, I've been dishing out some low scores recently.

Anyway, Andy gets my Noms again today (x5)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Nintendo’s Flagship Franchise
Because that’s the only way to justify the amount of love it’s gotten over the others...

Chance: 5%
Want: 0%

Another Sword-Wielding character from Fire Emblem? OMG so unique!

Look - at this point, Fire Emblem fatigue has set in for most of the fanbase. I think that’s literally the only franchise that could give us a character who:

• Wields a flaming chainsaw
• Turns into a dragon
• Is able to use a completely unique pinning move with a built-in followup
• Uses elemental attacks that only two others on the roster have
• Can counter vertically, giving an easy KO option
• Did I mention they turn into a ****ing DRAGON?!

...and have a large portion of the fanbase think it’s lame.

Now, people have written pages about how unique Celica could be. But just because someone could be unique doesn’t mean they will (Dark Samus and Daisy fans could tell you all about that) - particularly for the series where many people think Ike is literally just a male Marth. And moreso than for any other weapon, people are hostile toward swordsmen, anime swordsmen in particular.

“But Cap! Celica is a mage! She’d use magic!”

Yes. I bet her best moves involve that magic in her right hand there in her official art.

Now, I’m not anti Fire Emblem (I’d have loved to see Azura), but the fatigue has set in for me. Plus Sakurai even said that he thought the series got too much and then added Corrin on top of it. And Chrom. And as a Zelda fan, it just feels all kinds of wrong for Zelda to have fewer characters (and fewer uniques) than Fire Emblem.

“But Cap, Zelda has loads of stages and items! It’s perfectly well repped over Fire Emblem!”
...In that case, let's toss out of the Zelda items aside from the heart containers and also take out Spirit Tracks and then we’ll get Midna and Urbosa. Oh, and while we’re at it, take out the two Fire Emblem echoes and Corrin, and you can get four stages of your choice and a few weapons as random drops. And I’ll even let you keep Corrin as an assist trophy.

Doesn’t feel the same, does it?

Besides, Celica doesn’t have a game coming out soon. That’d be Edelgard and the two guys nobody cares about since they’re not waifu material. If Nintendo went that route, they’d probably favor the new promotional character who was incredibly well received over an older one (speaking of ignoring the dudes since they can’t be waifu’d - doesn’t Celica have a counterpart named Alm or something to that effect?).

So all in all, there’s nothing I personally have against Celica, but maybe let’s let another series get the spotlight for once. It would be nice to get another FE stage since I’m trying to plan music and getting that settled on the three FE stages is ridiculous, but I think we can get a different character there.

Nom: More DLC x5

 

[Cetus]

Celica

Chance-0%
I think even Sakurai knows that Fire Emblem is too saturated in the series. Plus, if we were to get ANY Fire Emblem representation, it'd be a Three Houses character AT LEAST. Plus, she's one of two protagonists, meaning it'd be hard to include one and not the other. And I doubt they'd give us a double dose of Fire Emblem with Alm just to include Celica, too.

Want-10%
I really haven't played much Fire Emblem. She looks unique I suppose, but we've gotten so many Fire Emblem characters, it's kind of hard to see the good here. More female representation I guess but... That's honestly not enough characters like Rex and Elma, both of whom are anime swordfighters would have leagues more moveset potential. Also Xenoblade bias but shush =3=

Nominations: Spyro

 

[Jomosensual]

Celica

Chance: 20 - haven't finished her FE game yet, but so far she seem like a better fit as a Robin echo than a unique fighter which hurts her chances since we don't have any word on if echos will be made or not anymore. Also fairly low on her chances because with 3 houses coming up it feels more likely that we get Edelgard to help promote that instead of Celica. seems like a victim of falling at a bad time in the smash development cycle like the unrepped gens of Pokemon were

Want: 40 - I'm not really that interested in getting another FE character in the game at the moment. I'm not someone who hates the number of swordsmen or FE characters in the game, my main is Ike after all, but there aren't many that really interest me that aren't already in. Personally, I'd like to see a completely different class, like a Manakete or something, get a rep first if we're going to keep adding FE characters. Wouldn't hate having her in if she could have been a base roster character, but for DLC I feel like they need to go bigger or more exciting I guess.

Noms
Gen 8 Pokemon x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Celica
Chance: 0.1%
We're likely not getting another FE character and if we do it will be one from Three Houses, no discussion. Adding Celica at this point would give the same feeling as if we were to get another gen 7 mon as DLC instead from gen 8. What's the point.

Want: 0%
I don't want anymore FE characters. Let alone FE characters that make no sense from a buisness standpoint. Let alone more sword characters.

Lycanroc: 9.54%

CGI DLC trailers x5

 

[Artix]

Celica

Chance: 20%
Poor Celica, she's not having a good time in Smash. The best chance she could get in was in the base roster, but that was completely stolen by Chrom and thus she was left in the dust. Now, as for DLC, it's even harder for Celica to get in since Three Houses is coming soon and as such, she has competition with it's characters like Edelgard. The worst thing is, Nintendo will most likely pick Edelgard over Celica just to promote Three Houses and since SoV came out like a year or something, Celica really has nothing to promote at this point. The only way I could see her getting in is if Nintendo prefers a more popular FE character than a promotional character, but I highly doubt they would go for that, especially since FE is over represented at this point.

Want: 80%
Yeah, her chances may not be good this time around, but I still want Celica in Smash, one way or another. She's one of my most wanted characters in Smash and I wouldn't mind if she somehow made it in.

Lycanroc Prediction: 3.55%

Nominations:
Nero Claudius (Fate) x5

 

[RealPokeFan11]

My annoying kitten woke me up early by scratching me in the nose, so that means I'm here early! At least he returned my chap stick to me. Yay?

TOYOTA CELICA
Chance: 3%
Want: 5%

Pros:
-She's kinda hot.
-She uses magic.
-She's pretty popular.
(That's it!)

Cons:
-She's yet again another Fire Emblem swordfighter. (REEEEEEE!)
-She doesn't bring much to the table outside of a sword and magic.
-She has competition with Edelgard who has more moveset potential and makes more sense as a promotional choice.
-Robin already uses magic, so Celica would just repeat a mechanic that he already has.
-She doesn't have much of a reason to be in Smash outside of fan demand, and might cause a bit of outrage during the reveal.

Welp, you saw my entire pros and cons list. Sorry but I don't think Celica will make the cut for DLC to be honest... Edelgard just makes more sense and has diversity from the rest of the cast.

Lycanroc prediction: 12.69%

Reaper x5

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Dovahkiin pre-Celica

Over 200

Arle Nadja x240

200 - 151

Rhythm Girl x160

150 - 101

Concept: All DLC will be third-party x150
Nero Claudius (Fate) x120
Grovyle x115
Concept: CGI trailers for newcomers (barring Piranha Plant) x115
Kat & Ana x105
Concept: More DLC x105
Concept: Gen 8 Pokemon x105
Mach Rider x105
Concept: Stages outside Fighter Pass x105

100 - 51

Concept: No fan favorite/highly requested characters x100
Reaper (Overwatch) x100
Professor Hector x94
Concept: Third-party character from unrepped Company x90
Boss: Kracko x85
Reimu Hakurei x85
Impa x70
Lora (Xenoblade) x65
Hollow Knight x57
Porky Minch x54

50 - 25

Andy (Advance Wars) x50
Concept: Boss Rush x45
Papyrus x35
Sephiroth x35
9-Volt x34
Creeper x31
Concept: Assist Trophy becomes Fighter x30
Concept: All DLC will be first-party x25
Thrall (Warcraft) x25

Under 25

Ninten x24
Boss: Perfect Chaos x20
Concept: SNK rep x20
Ravio x20
Hector (Fire Emblem) x15
Pyra & Mythra (sans Rex) x15
Frisk x10
Concept: Dragalia Lost rep x10
Concept: Shin Megami Tensei rep x10
Decidueye x10
Concept: Bethesda rep x10
Frog (Chrono Trigger) x8
Blacephalon x5
Zhao Yun (Dynasty Warriors) x5
Amaterasu x5
Monokuma x5
Concept: Another joke character x5
Neptune x5
Spyro x5
Concept: Style Savvy rep x5
Concept: Crazi Taxi rep x5
Oliver (Ni No Kuni) x5
Ryu Hayabusa x5
Lizalfos x4
Toon Zelda x3
Courier (Fallout) x2
Urbosa x1
[Rerate] Steve? x1

Gen 8 Pokémon, Mach Rider, and Stages outside Fighter Pass ride past 100 noms.

Porky minches past 50 noms. (Is minch a verb? Whatever I’m tired)

Today’s newcomers are Oliver, Ryu Hayabusa (both with 5 noms), and the Courier (with 2).

 

[shocktarts17]

Chance: 15%

Pros:

• She came in first place of the female’s division of the 2nd FE Heroes Choose Your Legends voting ballot (and all of last years winners are already represented in Smash). That should say something about her popularity considering how successful FE Heroes has been.
• Adding on to her popularity, she appeared in FE Warriors while the other protagonist of Gaiden/SoV (Alm) didn’t. Her appearance in Warriors was apparently due to a last minute request from either Nintendo or IS.
• Would easily beat out Alm as she's definitely the more favored of the two and would offer more unique moveset potential (which was one of the reasons why Sakurai chose Robin over Chrom for SSB4).
• SoV's early 2017 release shouldn’t be an issue at all regarding her chances as DLC, as the DLC lineup was just recently finalized and Celica hasn't been sent to Assist trophy/Mii costume hell yet (not that I think mii costumes are an automatic deconfirmation). Corrin was able to be in SSB4 less than a year after their game released in Japan.

Cons:

• A Three Houses character would probably have priority as the next FE rep.
• Sakurai himself has stated that there are a ton of FE reps already.

Overall I think Celica has a decent chance for DLC and would probably be the most likely FE newcomer if they were to play it safe instead of experimenting with Three Houses. That said however, the two con points I wrote above are really holding her back.

Honestly you said pretty much exactly what I was thinking so I'll just swipe your chance writeup. I will say I don't think she has much of a chance though and give her a Chance of 5%

Want: 35%
Yeah she isn't even my most wanted for a Robin clone/semi-clone so I'm not really excited for her as a possible addition. But as a huge Fire Emblem nerd I guess I wouldn't be too upset at the end of the day.

Prediction: 3%

Nomination: Ravio x5

 

[Sid-cada]

Celica

Chance - 1.5% - She was supported a bit back in the day, but I think it's not going to happen. Despite a bit of a push by IS, Sakurai states that he was already wary of over representation with Corrin. Combine with the fact that Three Houses would get priority due to Fire Emblem typically promoting the new things and we have poor chances.

Want - 35% - Did I mention that I would prefer Anna over most of the Fire Emblem choices? I'm repeating that fact endlessly. I would rather not have the rest.


Prediction

Lycanroc - 3.53% - It's time has passed.


Nominations

Arle Nadja X5

 

[Opossum]

Celica time.

Chance: 65%
Even with my obvious biases aside, I really do think people are overlooking some things. I'd highly encourage everyone to read this and alter their scores accordingly. Something may be fishy.

tl;dr: She's popular, Nintendo has pushed her before, Three Houses may be too new, and all of the ported SoV songs are Alm route songs. Music omission matters, folks, considering they're selling us music.

Want: 100%
She's my second favorite Fire Emblem lord, and if I got her I'd have all three of my favorite lords in Smash. She and Crash are the only two characters with semi-reasonable chances left that I even want.

 

[TCT~Phantom]

Celica time.

Chance: 65%
Even with my obvious biases aside, I really do think people are overlooking some things. I'd highly encourage everyone to read this and alter their scores accordingly. Something may be fishy.

tl;dr: She's popular, Nintendo has pushed her before, Three Houses may be too new, and all of the ported SoV songs are Alm route songs. Music omission matters, folks, considering they're selling us music.

Want: 100%
She's my second favorite Fire Emblem lord, and if I got her I'd have all three of my favorite lords in Smash. She and Crash are the only two characters with semi-reasonable chances left that I even want.

That linked write up is honestly some damn good analysis. I feel the only strong argument I could make against it is Three Houses. Convince me that Celica is more likely than Edelgard, you clearly have a strong case.

 

[DaUsername]

Irrelevant Fire Emblem Character
Chance: 1%
Nope, sorry. It's too late for her to get shilled into the game. A new game is coming out next year and they'd rather shill someone from that instead. There's also a slim chance that the devs have good taste and decide that seven characters is enough.
Want: 0%
Fire Emblem doesn't need any more characters, it has enough.
How come Fire Emblem gets to have multiple newcomers every game while franchises like Kirby and Zelda haven't gotten anything since Brawl?

Lycanroc prediction: 4%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

 

[Opossum]

That linked write up is honestly some damn good analysis. I feel the only strong argument I could make against it is Three Houses. Convince me that Celica is more likely than Edelgard, you clearly have a strong case.

I definitely think Three Houses could get a character, but it's not something I'd be willing to bet on, mainly because of what happened to Xenoblade Chronicles 2. Basically, we don't know exactly WHEN the DLC was chosen. We know when the selection process was completed, but that date was likely due to third party negotiations, which would obviously need more time. To use Corrin as an example, Fates had already been in the public eye a lot when she was chosen, and the game had already released in Japan.

Meanwhile, Three Houses didn't even get shown to the public until this past E3, with a delayed launch no less, and we've heard nothing since. Radio silence. Personally I'm guessing it went through a mini development hell. I can't see Sakurai having saved a spot for Edelgard, Byleth, Claude, Dimitri, or any Three Houses character, really. Not this far out. Greninja and Incineroar are the exceptions, not the rule, simply due to how Sakurai treats Pokémon specifically.

Additionally, I'd argue Celica would also be the stronger pick. With any Three Houses character, you'd need to gamble on how the fans receive them. Meanwhile, Celica has proven to be incredibly popular already. Considering the season pass needs to sell well, why gamble on a character when you can go for one that people already love? Add that to the fact that Three Houses marketing is basically nonexistent right now, and I can't see Nintendo, specifically, pushing for it to be in Smash just yet.

 

[Deleted member]

Celica: 70%
She's only not higher because Hector exists and he's more popular and brings a mew weapon type into the mix. As for Celica herself, if we're going solely by the most "recent" FE character, she's the most likely FE character as she's only second to Hector popularity(out of the characters not in Smash, that is) and her Magic movepool easily translates into Smash and could give us an actual fast mage which is something we don't have yet. At the same time, FE only has Lucina as a female character by default(Robin and Corrin have female alts but they're not the default ones which... tells us some things) and I'd really appreciate another one.
Also, people really overestimate the chances Three Houses getting a character when we know jack **** about it.

Want: 80%
Not my most wanted FE character but she'd be worthy it just for bringing Twilight of the Gods with her. Amd if she could focus on Fire Magic and White Spells then I'd be all over it.

 

[Opossum]

Irrelevant Fire Emblem Character
Chance: 1%
Nope, sorry. It's too late for her to get shilled into the game. A new game is coming out next year and they'd rather shill someone from that instead. There's also a slim chance that the devs have good taste and decide that seven characters is enough.
Want: 0%
Fire Emblem doesn't need any more characters, it has enough.
How come Fire Emblem gets to have multiple newcomers every game while franchises like Kirby and Zelda haven't gotten anything since Brawl?

Lycanroc prediction: 4%
Noms: Stages outside Fighter Pass x5

Calling Celica, of all characters, irrelevant just shows you have no idea what you're talking about. Also, given your avatar, those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.