Rate Their Chances - Smash Ultimate Edition! Day 672: Five Most Likely First and Third Parties for Smash 6, and Final Goodbyes

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Nominations post-Concept: Contra rep pre-Min Min/Master Mummy/Mechanica

Junko & Monokuma x110
Concept: Nippon Ichi rep x105
Guardian (Destiny) x95
Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable x94
Baldi (Baldi's Basics) x90
Meowth x83
Decidueye x80
Concept: Darksiders rep x80
Brian (Quest 64) x80

100 - 51

Proto Man x75
Papyrus x75
Sackboy x75
Ahri (League of Legends) x67
Concept: No third parties in this Pass x60
Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise x55
[Rerate] Steve x55

50 - 25

Dwight Fairfield (Dead by Daylight) x50
Concept: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x50
Echo: Zeraora (41e) x45
Kasumi (Dead or Alive) x45
[Rerate] Kratos x45
Dr. Eggman x45
Boss: Ender Dragon x45
Terra Branford x45
Gordon Freeman x45
Frank West x45
Echo: Dark Bowser (14e) x32
Echo: Lord Fredrik (67e) x32
Concept: SNES-era Final Fantasy rep x30
Urbosa x29
Concept: Assist Trophies added in updates x27
Lu Bu (Dynasty Warriors) x27
Giygas x25
[Rerate] Saki Amamiya x25
Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is mostly first-party x25

Under 25

Concept: Returning stages x21
Rival Pokémon Trainer x19
Concept: Second F-Zero rep x18
Stage: Bowser's Castle x16
Zeraora x15
Black Shadow x15
Louie x15
Gooigi x13
Fulgore x11
[Rerate] Jin Kazama x10
[Rerate] Agumon x10
Concept: Dark Souls rep x10
[Rerate] Monokuma x10
Gran/Djeeta x10
Lora and Jin x10
Otto Matic x10
The Avatar (Ultima) x10
Concept: Pokémon Mystery Dungeon content x10
Mii Costume: Jill Stingray x10
Chell x8
[Rerate] Professor Layton x8
Taranza x6
Sparky (Clash Royale) x5
Concept: Overwatch character x5
Asha (Wonder Boy) x5
Mii Costume: Hat Kid x5
Concept: Portal 2 rep x5
Breath of the Wild 2 Ganondorf x5
Tick (Brawl Stars) x5
King Graham x5
Concept: Fortnite character x5
Magolor x5
[Rerate] Andy x5
Cooking Mama x5
[Rerate] Toxtricity x5
Jill (Drill Dozer) x5
[Rerate] Takamaru x5
Concept: Darkstalkers rep x5
[Rerate] Captain Toad x5
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5
Red (Angry Birds) x5
Concept: No Spirit promotions x5
Three Mage Sisters x2
Concept: A Pokémon Trainer who fights x2
Concept: A fighter who uses all kicks x2
[Rerate] Metal Sonic x2

Concept: Nippon Ichi rep crosses 100 noms. Guardian inches past Concept: Pokéball Pokémon becomes playable and is now on third place. Baldi sneaks past Meowth and steals fifth place. Brian joins the top seven, tied with Decidueye and Concept: Darksiders rep for the last spot.

Concept: Fighter from repped third party franchise and Steve blaze past 50 noms.

We have a bunch of newcomers today! We have a rerate of Captain Toad, Zelda (the Breath of the Wild 2 version), Red (the angry bird, not the Pokémon trainer), and Concept: No Spirit promotions, all with 5 noms to their name.

Btw how's Phantom doing? Haven't heard from him for quite some time now. Last news were not too merry. Hope everything's okay?

We heard from him a few weeks ago, and he seemed to be doing well, thankfully.

 

[chocolatejr9]

Abstain. I don't have an opinion on any of these guys. Although I will admit, I think people are overestimating how much Min Min's popularity will factor into the equation.

Nominations: Meowth x2, Ahri x3

 

[KillerCage]

Min Min
Chances: 70%
Want: 65%
Master Mummy
Chances: 20%
Want: 30%
Mechanica
Chances: 45%
Want: 70%

 

[chocolatejr9]

Min Min
Chances: 70%
Want: 65%
Master Mummy
Chances: 20%
Want: 30%
Mechanica
Chances: 45%
Want: 70%

Um... do you mind explaining your reasoning?

 

[GoodGrief741]

The three Ms of ARMS. Y'know, aside from Max Brass. And Misango.

Guy Eldoon's daughter

Chance: 50%
I'm probably less bullish on her chances than any of you. Mostly because I think the main character is the best way to represent any game, and therefore I'm biased against her in that regard. But she is quite probably the most likely not-main-character to get in.

Will her popularity make her get in over Spring Man? Ehhh, I'm doubtful. Popularity has meant jack **** so far, our DLC has given us 5 main characters and one decidedly unpopular mook. At most, popularity has been the deciding factor between main characters (like which Dragon Quest heroes were alts) at worst it's just a possible argument to make (is Terry more popular than Kyo? **** if I know. Is Joker the most popular Persona protagonist? For the fandom, maybe not, but that's irrelevant when you're the only one with mainstream penetration). Fire Emblem: Three Houses is the perfect case study, honestly. You have the very, very generic main character that people dismiss over a highly popular and even developer promoted side character, who is still very important in the game. In the end, we got Byleth.

I'll think about it from dual standpoints, since in the Sakurai-Nintendo relationship we can't say with 100% certainty who has the most influence. Sakurai cares about representing the game as best he can. That's why, for example, Simon Belmont was chosen over Alucard, and why the Luminary et al were chosen over Slime. If you have to pick a single character to represent ARMS, Spring Man is the better choice. Basic is best, that's the entire design philosophy behind most fighting games - you want a character that a newcomer can pick up and play as with ease, before delving into deeper characters. Now, what's in Nintendo's best interest? Well that's marketing. What would be the best character to market this game? It's the one who most easily conveys the concept of the game with his design, no frills; it's the guy on the boxart that people can recognize; it's the fricking main character. Basically, whoever it was that made the pick, I can't see why they wouldn't pick Spring Man.

Despite all that, it's not like Min Min can't get in solo. Maybe they want to throw a bone to ARMS fans and give them the official "most popular character". Maybe it was a request from the devs, as I recall that Min Min is the director(?)'s favorite character. It could happen, and it's not like it's a bad idea.

However, I do think Min Min's best shot isn't solo, but as part of a group. I'm sure her kick will be a part of the ARMS character, no matter who they are. Conversely, her dragon arm is pretty much unimplementable, as you either can't use it at all because of how easy it is to make someone flinch, or it's unstoppable because of the range an ARMS character would have. Therefore, Min Min is ripe to be either an alt or an Echo, and she's very close to the top for being chosen for such an endeavor because of her popularity.

Want: 95%
Min Min is one of the best designs in ARMS, and a joy to play. While not my favorite, it's no wonder she's so popular. I don't think she'd be the best choice to represent her game, but as a second rep she's top-notch.

Look upon my shields, ye mighty, and despair

Chance: 5%
I don't think Master Mummy is a strong candidate. He was one of the first characters revealed, so he has that going for him. But by himself, he gives a pretty bad impression of ARMS - what is it, some Egypt fighter? A 3D Darkstalkers? And he isn't one of the most popular characters either. And given his proportions, he's un-Echoable.

Want: 85%
I do quite like this big boy, and some of his attacks (like his slam dunk) are brutal and a must for whoever does get in. I wish he was more popular as his concept is genius, and props to his gimmick as it makes him one of the most different fighters in ARMS.

Girl stuck in a washing machine

Chance: 3%
Again, what Mechanica has going for her is being one of the first out of the gate and not much else. I can't fathom why, but she's not very popular (lacking sex appeal maybe?) With her proportions, and her gimmick of gliding, she can't work as an Echo or an alt either. Hell, she doesn't even have ARMS technically, which makes her an even worse representative of the game than Master Mummy - you might as well say she's a Teleroboxer character.

Want: 97%
She's one of my favorites. I know "girl in a mech" is so overused it's a cliche at this point, but the design for Mechanica's... Well, mech, is so creative and colorful and Nintendo I love it. It's like a yellow soda can with noodle arms! Amazing. Can't say I could manage to be mad if she were the ARMS rep against all odds.

Noms: Kasumi x5
Dragalia Lost rep: uh I guess they're not too bad but they will be shot down real hard. 7.11%

 

[KillerCage]

Um... do you mind explaining your reasoning?

I want Mechanica slightly more than Min Min (though I think our ramen girl has the best shot of getting the invite to Smash Ultimate outside of Spring Man and Ribbon Girl) partly due to ARMS' lore. Having a young girl, who lacked the ability to strench her arms, built herself a mech suit so she can fight in the ARMS competition alongside her idol Ribbon Girl only get the invite to Smash would be the ultimate dream come true for Mechanica. Do I think Mechanica has the best shot of being CP6? CERTAINLY NOT! But do I think people are underestimating her chances? A little bit yes.

Am I forgetting someone?

 

[3DSNinja]

GoodGrief741 the most popular Persona protag is Minato.

 

[GoodGrief741]

I want Mechanica slightly more than Min Min (though I think our ramen girl has the best shot of getting the invite to Smash Ultimate outside of Spring Man and Ribbon Girl) partly due to ARMS' lore. Having a young girl, who lacked the ability to strench her arms, built herself a mech suit so she can fight in the ARMS competition alongside her idol Ribbon Girl only get the invite to Smash would be the ultimate dream come true for Mechanica. Do I think Mechanica has the best shot of being CP6? CERTAINLY NOT! But do I think people are underestimating her chances? A little bit yes.

Am I forgetting someone?

For your scores to count, you need to give 4 sentences of reasoning per character, that's probably what C chocolatejr9 was referring to. Your reasoning for Mechanica fits the requirements perfectly, but you need to give explanations for Master Mummy and Min Min's scores as well.

 

[Garteam]

The Sentient Ramen Bowl
Chance: 55%
There's two ways I can see Min Min getting in: as a solo act or as an alt in a Hero-style ARMS characters. Let's go over both of those options.

Solo Min is basically the only way I could see ARMS getting in without Spring Man. She's a clear fan favourite for both the staff and ARMS fanbase, winning the party crash and appearing frequently in the game's advertising. However, I don't really think that's enough to get a character in Smash. We've never seen a fan favourite take precedent over the series' mascot or protagonist. This makes a lot of sense, you want to put in the character that will make as many people go "Oh, it's the guy from that game" as possible and then please the fanbase through supporting details and references that show you've done your homework. As such, I really can't see Min Min taking precedent over Spring Man, so I'm giving a 10% for Solo Min.

Alt Min Min, on the other hand, seems to be far more fruitful. She shares the same general build and abilities as Spring Man, so being incompatible with his animations isn't really an issue. Likewise, she's still very popular, so her inclusion is great for general fanservice. Now, how likely is an alt situation? While it's far from guaranteed, I still think an alt set of Spring Man, Ribbon Girl, Ninjara, Min Min is still the most likely outcome for an ARMS rep. The emphasis Nintendo put on ARMS' complete roster in the reveal really makes me think we'll get multiple characters sharing a singular moveset. The four mentioned before make just make the sense for this hypothetical composition: they're all relatively popular, appear frequently in marketing, share similar proportions, have an equal gender split, and none of them have outrageous abilities beyond their springy arms (like Barq or Dr. Coyle's hover). As such, I'll give a Min Min alt as part of a greater package a 45% chance.

So yeah, 10% for solo Min Min plus 45% for a Min Min alt adds up to 55% for some Min Min. She's the most likely character after Spring Man and Ribbon Girl.

Want: 75%
I like Min Min's design and character, but I've admittedly been turned off her a bit. I've seen a few people around the general speculation scene tout how Min Min is the "interesting" alternative to the boring Spring Man, but I think that's pretty close minded. Both Spring Man and Min Min are cool characters, Springy arm gymbro who loves pizza and martial arts princess who fights for the honour of a ramen restaurant are fun and creative ideas for a fighting game cast. Likewise, both Spring Man and Min Min would have their arms at the centre of their moveset, so they'd play more or less the same. Min Min's kick is going to be used for like one or two moves max. The ARMS character is going to show off the mechanics and gameplay that makes ARMS unique first and foremost, their personal identity is likely going to come second. Joker, the Luminary, and Byleth lost some of their individuality to better show off what Persona 5, Dragon Quest, and Fire Emblem: Three Houses are about respectively, so ARMS' character will likely go through the same process. I know it's not super far to write off a character because of some bad apples, so I wouldn't dislike Min Min, but I can't help but feel a little less enthusiastic for her.

Brendon Fraser's Best Movie and Tron Bonne

Chance: 1% each
The first of the characters that are, in my opinion, no hopers. Master Mummy is essentially the Zangief of ARMS, being the series' flagship heavy and one of the first characters revealed. Having the mobility of a cow, super armour for days, and the ability to regenerate health, he could bring a relatively unique playstyle to the ARMS character. However, he runs into the "not the protagonist/mascot" problem that Min Min has and, unlike her, doesn't have any noteworthy popularity to make up for this. He's also too large to work as an alt of most characters.

A lot of what I said about Master Mummy applies to Mechanica. A heavy that isn't the protagonist or mascot, lacks any major popularity, and can't be included in an alt because of her build. She does have a hover, so that's something unique she could do. However, I really don't think that's enough to give her any real avenue in

Want: 25% for Master Mummy, 20% for Mechanica
Between Ridley, K. Rool, and Incineroar, I'm feeling a little burned out on big body heavy characters (Yes, I know Ridley's not technically a heavy, but he's one in my heart). I'd rather just have the ARMS character's moveset focused entirely on the ARMS, there's no need to make them a wall to boot. I do like his backstory though and it'd be funny to have a literal dead guy walking around in Smash. He's also got a nice palette, so I wouldn't mind seeing the ARMS character have a colour based on Master Mummy.

Mechanica is someone I'm slightly more opposed to. As funny as it would be to have Mechanica in Smash as the child between Ganondorf and the Belmonts with Peach's float ability, it also sounds pretty terrible to play against. I also never really played as her in ARMS beyond one game to try her out, so I don't have much attachment to her there either. I do like that she's basically a self-made fighter though, building her machine herself just because she didn't have the stretchy arms but wanted to compete nonetheless.

 

[Glaciacott]

Min Min
Chance - 33%
Either Spring Man or Min Min. I find Spring Man slightly more likely just because of how much more obvious it would be. BUT, it's really hard given my bias to ignore so many signs pointing at the possibility of Min Min. The timing of FP6 and the conclusion of the last party crash bash lines up pretty much perfectly, and I don't think Spring Man being a mascot/protagonist is particularly ironclad in a game where story-wise the protagonist is whoever you choose.
Simplest conclusion tells me they probably just shrugged and went Spring Man ("we already have a version of him, it's free real estate!"), but there's a possibility they got Yabuki involved and he came in with the party crash bash results going "I have your champion"


Want - 100%
Honestly, I've gotten so many dream characters in Smash at this point that I don't particularly get hyper excited about speculation. But between Byleth happening out of nowhere and then Arms receiving attention, I'm suddenly super excited. Min Min is one of my favorite character when it comes to recent Nintendo games, and I never even figured she'd have a shred of a chance.
And now here we are. If she actually does happen not only will I experience extreme hype once more, but I'll likely be forced to reconsider my current main. I'll be happy with Arms representation regardless (and spring man really is a cool guy too, wouldn't be a loss), but Min Min would raise the hype further than most characters we'll likely get in this pass.

Master Mummy
Chance - 0%
I cannot imagine any circumstance where Master Mummy would get chosen. And that is ok, let the man chill with his family.

Want - 50%
Cool Arms rep? New heavyweight? I would not mind.

Mechanica
Chance - 1%
She's a slight bit more likely than Mummy imo, and I can see her lore going further over time as an interesting character who fights via Arms without naturally possessing them. Still, I find it extremely unlikely they'll choose the one character who doesn't have the Arms ability as the Arms rep.

Want - 50%
She's also a pretty cool character with a likable personality and tons of potential.

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

Like Corrin but good
Chance: 80%
Yeah, I won't lie. If we're truely getting an Arms character solo, I think it'll be her. I know more people have been advocating for just Springman recently but again, I really can't see him getting in by himself. She's a huge fan and developer-favorite, winning the Party Crash Bash and all, has more to work with than other Arms characters with her kicks and dragon arm, and personally I subscibe to the Bayo glitch theory. She may not the "face" of the game but if there was a time where the most popular character would be prioritized over the mascot then I think this would be the time. Also in case the "different characters as alts" theory comes true, I think Min Min would almost definitely be part of that too.

Want: 95%
While she may not be my personal favorite Arms character, she is the character I'd like too see the most in case of a solo character. Being a Spirit plays a big part in that but I also just think she'd just be way more fun and interesting from a visual and playstyle standpoint than characters like Springy or Ribbon.

Fighting a mummy
Chance: 1%
I simply don't see our Arms character being a heavyweight like this. He doen't fit as an alt for anybody and as a solo character he'd just feel a bit questionable and random. He's far from the most popular character and I don't see his "Block to heal" ability translating all that well to Smash.

Want: 0%
He's not a spirit and I want those things upgrated, thank you. Also, I ragequitted to this guy in Grand prix mode on difficulty 6 before Max Brass and it was an overall terrible experience. I don't throw the term "literally impossible" around often but...

Metallica
Chance: 2.5%
Just like Master Mummy she's a heavyweight which I just don't see happening. Also just like him she gets overshadowed by way more popular characters. Her hover ability isn't all that unique as well. I guess her mech would make her appealing to some people who are into those but I don't see that being enough.

Also, she doesn't even extend her actual arms. She's cheating!

Want: 0%
Again, this character doesn't help the pro spirit-upgrade side of things. And frankly, Mechanica just happens to be a character I just never seemed to bother with. She's the most forgettable character in the game to me and the only one out of the original five I didn't try out.

Dragalia lost rep: 14.21%
Dr Eggman x3
Captain Toad x2

 

[NintenRob]

Mechanica and Master Mummy
Chance 1%
Want 24%
Neither of them have any real significance, their only boon is being the first revealed characters. Master Mummy especially I find to be one of the least interesting characters in the game. And Mechanica isn't much better. They don't even have the advantage of potentially being a Spring Man alt because their body shapes are too different. And if we get a heavy, it's going to be Max Brass. And we get someone who isn't a spirit, it's going to be Max Brass (or maybe Coyle or Helix, buts probably gonna be Max Brass)

Min Min
Chance 60%
Want 35%
Definitely one of the more likely characters, I personally think Max Brass or Spring Man is more likely. But if Spring Man does the Hero route, Min Min is the prime candidate to fill the fourth spot. I'd definitely prefer Spring Man, he's the main character. He shouldn't be skipped just because he's an assist trophy.

Nominate no third party characters in this pass x5

Prediction dragalia lost 13%

 

[Heoj]

Min-min
chance 80%
Yeh im really damn confident in min-min, i just have this feeling, though maybe im just bias since min-min is one of my most wanted but whatever. Not too much else to say really, i do think that their is a good chance the crash bash thing was secretly meant to pick a potential smash character.
want 100%
Yep, one of my most wanted. Along with Phoenix Wright and Geno

Master Mummy:
chance 0%
Not much to say really, i just dont see it at all. I just dont see nintendo looking at all the other options and then picking master mummy.
want 0%
i dont hate master mummy its just, i have no interest in seeing him playable in smash. I aint a huge fan of his design, like being a mummy is cool but after playing him in arms hes really damn slow and i didnt really like his style.

Mechanica
chance 0%
I was thinking of giving her around 5% but deciding on 0% as i just cant see them going for mechanica. With so many other picks like any of the spirits and max brass i just dont see it.
want 20%
Mechanica is neat but im not too big on seeing her playable over min-min. The mech i guess is cool and i think it would be a poor representation of arms.

 

[Ridrool64]

Noodles are the best, no doubt, can't deny, taste better than water, but don't ask me why.

Chance: 45%. This might seem rather low, but I'm thinking either it's Spring Man or somebody with no base game content (i.e. Max Brass or Dr. Coyle). I don't think Assist Trophies are in a special predicament from Spirits, as far as Nintendo's selections in 2019/2015 are concerned they'd be the same thing. So considering the selection was likely made close to 2019, I don't think Spirit characters are in a better spot. That being said, if they ARE in a better spot, Min-Min... is still in second place behind Ribbon Girl, who trades fan popularity for marketability. Min-Min relies on her status as a fan favorite and them not going for Spring Man or Ribbon Girl, and these seem like major ifs rather than relatively small ifs, as the only characters carried exclusively by fan demand had it in regards to Smash, as well as being asked for since Brawl at the latest, if not even Melee or 64. By default, Min-Min can't have been asked for prior to Ultimate and while that hasn't stopped plenty of new characters when there’s infighting it usually doesn’t work out.

Want: Whatever score I gave RG/Ninjara... because it's literally the same deal here. Assists are dead, Spirits are back on the table. But add 5% to that because I like her design and she's probably the one I'd visually prefer the most. (That makes it 50%). In terms of what gets broken, I'd rather have Spring Man, and overall I really don't care THAT much because an ARMS rep is gonna represent the game properly regardless of who gets chosen.

Big boy and little lass

Chance (both): 5%. Remember when I said Mechanica and Master Mummy were "randos"? What I mean by that is, they're characters who are technically included in the speculation for completion's sake but can be safely written off as candidates. Neither of them have a significant cutting edge over... Spring Man and Ribbon Girl, the primary promoted characters; Ninjara, Twintelle, and Min-Min, the most popular characters; and Max Brass and Dr. Coyle, who have canonical relevance and are the frontrunners for the non-base game crew. They could be unique... but so would everybody else. Aren’t even viable for a Hero situation. This is the definition of Spirit Board fodder, and we've got 6 more to go.

Want (both): 25%. These guys are walking confirmations that base game promotions won't happen, and while I technically have more to gain from that, losing my #3 and many people being upset that base game promotions aren't happening (which, if that's the case, puts most first parties outside of future game reps in a dire situation) isn't really worth it. Besides, as I didn't play the ARMS trial enough, I never got around to using them so I'm personally not attached. Overall I think it'd be a bigger bust than it is worth it with either of them. While Master Mummy and Mechanica are completely different, as far as my want ratings go they're in the same boat.

SNES FF rep x 5. Euden is going to be mad underrated, but 23.53%.

 

[BowserKing]

Min-Min

Chance: 25%. Her popularity will help her out in this game. While she may have a spirit, her chance is still quite strong. Competition is not much of a factor here, but she may have a chance to show up in this game. Either way, the chance of her getting in is quite high.

Want: 75%. She would be fun to play as, and she has moves that are quite unique in comparison. I can see her face of against Corrin and Ridley in a free for all. Also her inclusion would help bring Arms to popularity. Overall, her inclusion would be a fun one and she would be a great choice.

Master Mummy and Mechanica

Chance: 20% for each. There are not in the game yet, so their chance is quite decent. Of course they still have to face competition between the Arms reps and each other, and only one can get in. However, it's not impossible for them to get in the game.

Want: 60%. Both seem like great choices and they would both be fun to play as. I can see Mechanica fight R.O.B and Megaman, while Master Mummy would tussle with Simon and King K.Rool. Overall, they would be fun reps, and I can't choose who I prefer.

Prediction: Dragala Lost Rep (15%)

Noms: 2 for Stage: Bowser's Castle and 3 for Echo: Dark Bowser (14E)

 

[warpenguin55]

Abstain. I don't have anything to say about these characters chances. I also don't care who we get for the arms rep, so I don't have want scores either.

Noms: Baldi x5

 

[Sari]

So I have no idea if this has ever been discussed yet, but during the weekend I came up with what I call Spirited ARMS Theory. It basically goes like this:

• ARMS rep has to come with a spirit board and spirit battles.
• Spring Man, Min Min, and Twintelle already have spirit battles while Ribbon Girl and Ninjara are support spirits.
• Since it wouldn't make sense to make more than one spirit battle of the same character when there are a ton of ARMS characters to choose from, the three base game spirit battle characters can't be spirited away. Same goes to the two support spirits to a lesser extent.

TL;DR: Base game spirits are probably the most likely ARMS characters since they can't be spirited away.

Ok onto the actual ratings:

Min Min

Chance: 75%
She's one of the most popular characters in the game so it's safe to say she was definitely considered and possibly even chosen. If we get a single ARMS character and it somehow isn't Spring Man, I'm almost certain that it will be Min Min.

Want: 95%
She was voted the most popular character for a reason: she's got a cool design and seems to be one of the most fun characters in ARMS. Would not be disappointed if she got in.

-----

Master Mummy

Chance: 0%
Not one of the major characters and I don't think he'd work as an alt costume since he's way too big. They'll probably go with the more popular/normal characters to represent ARMS as a whole.

Want: Abstain
Master Mummy doesn't really interest me but I haven't actually played ARMS so I don't want to tank down his score. I can say off the bat that I wouldn't want him to get in over most of the other characters though (as of right now he's probably the character I'm the least interested in).

-----

Mechanica

Chance: 0%
Basically the same deal with Master Mummy. Also if the goal of the fighter is to represent ARMS as a whole, I don't think Mechanica's gimmick of being able to float would be enough to get her in.

Want: 70%
Eh why not? She's got a cute design and I think Smash is long overdue for a "person inside a mech" fighter. Still would like the other fighters though since they could probably offer more when it comes to gameplay.

-----

Dragalia Lost rep (or in other words, Euden) chance prediction: 12.00%

Nominations:
Zelda (BotW sequel) x5

 

[Jomosensual]

Min Min
Chance 50 - I like her chances. She's a very popular character from the game and even won the pop tournament they ran about a year ago. That alone makes me feel like there's a good shot.

Want 40 - There's other characters I'd rather get but it's hard to argue against the most popular character being in the game. Shes one of the few I haven't played with a ton so maybe i'll need to sit down and use her


Master Mummy
Chance 0 - I dont see this. A heavy character with massive reach is either going to be super broken or be the slowest character with the worst jumps and ariels ever. That could happen but I'm leaning towards the character not being on that level of extremes.

Want 30 - The above drops it down a bit but I like the character a bit. Not my first choice as the playable rep but I wont hate it.


Mechanica
Chance 0 - Has a little bit of the same issue that Mummy does with size, but the main issue here is that she might be the least memorable character from the game. I remember Sari dropping a "it would be weird if you put Numel in the game before Pikachu" on Gnars day and that really feels like what this would be. There's so many more characters who feel like better picks

Want 0 - Not really a fan of this character. One because she just isn't very memorable. And two of course being that she reminds me of Diva from Overwatch and even though I've only watched people play the game I learned to hate the character because it never went the **** away,


Predict
Dragalia Lost - 1.3%

Noms:
Guardian x5

 

[DrifloonEmpire]

Min-Min

Chance: 30% - A likely pick due to popularity, being a fan favorite and developer's favorite as well. Winning the Party Crash Bash definitely helped her solidify her place in the series history. She also both has the basic elements of an ARMS character without being too gimmicky, while still having abilities that stand out, which make her appealing from a development and series representation standpoint. Plus this allows easy inclusion in an amalgam rep. She's one of the favorites to win here and I won't deny it.

Want: 10% - Never found ARMS too interesting myself but while I recognize her unique talents and cute design, I've never been too interested in the popular girl characters in these kind of games (same goes for Twintelle). Still, if she was chosen I'd respect the decision and recognize what makes her stand out, but you wouldn't see me bouncing off of the walls for her inclusion.


Master Mummy

Chance: 5% - He has the distinction of being the first character shown off for the game, bout outside of that there isn't much going for him. He has little fan demand or popularity within the community, and has no relevance to the story of ARMS. Plus his rather bizarre design doesn't lend well to being part of an amalgam rep.

Want: 20% - I tend to like the more unusual or amusing designs and underdogs popularity-wise (same goes for Max Brass and Helix), so I think he'd be a cool and fun dark horse pick. Plus Smash is lacking in heavy characters, I think he'd be a welcome addition!


Mechanica

Chance: 5% - Has similar problems as Master Mummy. Despite the mech genre being very popular in Japan, her rather unorthodox design wouldn't led well to a character that reps the series as a whole, and would likely be too gimmicky. Still, considering they showed the whole roster during the reveal we still have to keep her in consideration.

Want: 10% - Not too interested in her but wouldn't mind either way.


Nominations:
Louie x5

Predictions:
Dragalia Lost Rep - 25.35%

 

[GoodGrief741]

Spoiler: Calcs

Minato Arisato
0.58% Chance - 12.19% Want
Winner of predictions was waddledeeonredyoshi with 0.79%
As with most heavily skewed results, I think it's worth pointing out that only five of Minato's want scores (two 5s, a 35, a 50, and a 100) are not 0. This is a pretty surprising response for a character that I expected to get tons of abstains. From what people have said, they don't want another Persona rep, and especially not over other third party franchises.

Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game
54.25% Chance - 86.50% Want
Winner of predictions was amageish with a precise 45.00%
Most of you expressed that this concept was either too broad or too vague and abstained. This mass abstention led to this being the concept with the lowest amount of chance and want scores ever - and even if characters are introduced to the equation, it's still tied for lowest (with Brash the Bear on chance, and with Aloy on want).
However, those who did participate clearly think favorably of this concept, as it's the most likely and most wanted concept now. In fact, its want score is the highest for anything, character or concept, right now.

Concept: Contra rep
18.33% Chance - 70.80%
Winners of predictions were Ninjaed and NintenRob both of whom predicted 17.00%
I will never cease to be surprised by how many people were unfamiliar enough with Contra to abstain. I get other franchises with less Nintendo presence like Devil May Cry or Assassin's Creed, but Contra?

Ye with extra noms

3BitSaurus 10
amageish 5
Artix 15
Awakining 5
DanganZilla5 20
DaUsername 72
Delzethin 5
DrifloonEmpire 5
GoodGrief741 48
NintenRob 5
Nemuresu 10
Ninjaed 5
Perkilator 5
Troykv 15
@Velveeta Dream 5
waddledeeonredyoshi 5
Wunderwaft 15

 

[3DSNinja]

hey GoodGrief741 wanna help me nom Gordon Freeman?

 

[chocolatejr9]

hey GoodGrief741 wanna help me nom Gordon Freeman?

Why do you always ask them? Why not ask someone else?

 

[3DSNinja]

I've tried but others generally don't listen. Unless you would be ok with helping me nominate him.

 

[GoodGrief741]

hey GoodGrief741 wanna help me nom Gordon Freeman?

Currently I'm angling to get Kasumi and Terra in the top seven, and that'll probably take up all my extra noms, but after that if he still isn't in, sure. Definitely a character worth rating.

 

[Calamitas]

I honestly find it quite fascinating how some people giving their ratings here say thing like "Oh, Spring Man/Ribbon Girl/Min Min is easily the most likely ARMS character!". . . and then give them a 30% chance rating.
But, anyway.

SmashBoards user GoodGrief741 already made the joke that I wanted to make, and now I don't know what to say

Chance: 80%
I'm in the camp that believes her to be our frontrunner. Popular with the fanbase, popular with the series' director, received official artwork to commemorate her victory of the popularity contest, and so on. The one obstacle in her path could be the "Smash always picks the mascot first" mentality, but considering that ARMS is still a relatively new IP, she could very will crystalize herself out to be the new mascot.

Want: 100%
Out of all the ARMS characters, she's the one I want the most. As part of a Hero/Bowser Jr. deal, standalone, or in some other way.

"Master Mummy"? Why, he's just hoarding toilet paper and wearing it!

Chance: 8%
Mmyeah, I don't really see his chance as being that high either way. Considering how my assessment of popularity went with Ninjara, I'm not gonna make any statements in that direction, but I highly doubt that it's gonna be Master Mummy. I'll just stick to saying it is a gut feeling in this case.

Chance: 15%
He's got a good design, but there are better ones in the game. Not my preferred choice by any means.

She could just as well be a character from a mecha fighting game

Chance: 9%
As others have already pointed out, no matter who it is, the ARMS character should ideally embody the general identity of the game. Mechanica, being one of the few fighters in ARMS that doesn't really have the titular appendages in the way other characters do, wouldn't really accomplish this all that well, making me doubtful as to her chances.

Want: 20%
A similar deal to Master Mummy. Wouldn't mind her, but there's others I'd prefer.

Predicting a Dragalia Lost rep to get around 15.62%.

Nominating Concept: Fighter Pass Volume 2 is primarily first-party x5.

 

[Ridrool64]

This was sooner than I expected. I thought it wouldn't be until tomorrow, but hey, frequent updates are updates.

Spoiler: Chance Totals

Chance Key: Green = Frontrunner (50+%), Blue = Solid Shot (35+%), White is Possible (20+%), Orange is Feasible (15+%), Orange Red is considered Unlikely (10+%), Light Red is Very Unlikely (5%), Deep Red is Pipe Dream (2%), and anything below that is Black tier, Hopeless. The lower tiers are once again getting a split.

1. (Team Cherry, Hollow Knight) The Knight (Mii Costume): 63.50% Chance - Likeliest thing we've rated, likeliest Mii Costume so far
2. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 59.48% Chance - Likeliest character
3. (Activision-Blizzard, self titled) Crash Bandicoot: 59.26% Chance - Likeliest Western character
4. Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 54.25% Chance
5. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 53.64% Chance
6. (BANDAI-NAMCO, Tales of) Lloyd Irving: 50.29% Chance - Likeliest character from a 3rd party company with a fighter
7. (Capcom, Devil May Cry) Dante: 49.38% Chance
8. (Grasshopper Manufacture, No More Heroes) Travis Touchdown: 45.28% Chance
9. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 43.94% Chance
10. (Square-Enix, Mario) Geno: 42.50% Chance
11. (Square-Enix & Disney, Kingdom Hearts) Sora: 40.58% Chance
12. (SEGA, Puyo Puyo) Arle Nadja: 39.29% Chance
13. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 38.46% Chance
14. Heihachi Mishima: 37.58% Chance
15. Quote (Mii Costume): 36.79% Chance - Least likely Mii Costume so far
16. 2B: 35.41% Chance
17. Sol Badguy: 31.00% Chance
18. Lara Croft: 29.50% Chance
19. Cinderace: 26.63% Chance
20. Concept: New Zelda character: 26.20% Chance
21. Reimu Hakurei: 24.98% Chance - Likeliest indie character
22. Bandana Dee: 21.70% Chance
23. Paper Mario: 21.64% Chance
24. Isaac: 20.45% Chance - Likeliest first party from a non-fighter repped series (not counting ARMS, as it's gonna get one soon)
25. Waluigi: 19.81% Chance
26. Dovahkiin: 19.69% Chance
27. Nightmare: 18.74% Chance
28. Concept: Contra rep: 18.33% Chance
    1. This rating was near-universally noted as us being most likely to get Bill Rizer, so I will treat this as an old rating of his should he get a rerate.
29. Master Chief: 18.27% Chance
30. Amaterasu: 18.17% Chance
31. Dixie Kong: 18.08% Chance
32. Rex: 17.52% Chance
33. Tracer: 17.37% Chance
34. Rillaboom: 16.11% Chance
35. Ragna the Bloodedge: 14.25% Chance
36. Inteleon: 12.41% Chance
37. Toxtricity: 12.34% Chance
38. Rayman: 11.53% Chance
39. Urshifu: 11.43% Chance
40. Chun-Li: 11.01% Chance
41. Shantae: 10.89% Chance
42. Monster Hunter: 10.75% Chance
43. Spyro the Dragon: 9.58% Chance
44. Alucard: 9.29% Chance
45. KOS-MOS: 8.87% Chance
46. Echo Fighters as DLC: 7.53% Chance
47. Big Daddy: 7.16% Chance
48. Elma: 6.48% Chance
49. Neku Sakuraba: 6.46% Chance
50. Standalone Stage DLC: 5.74% Chance - "Least likely" non-Fighter concept
51. Skull Kid: 5.46% Chance
52. The Knight: 4.62% Chance
53. Carmen Sandiego: 4.43% Chance - Most notable combination of least likely and most wanted, Pipe Dream Award
54. Midna: 4.33% Chance
55. Freddy Fazbear: 4.31% Chance
56. Bomberman: 4.16% Chance
57. Gex: 3.91% Chance
58. Ryo Hazuki: 3.59% Chance
59. Octopath Traveler rep: 3.47% Chance - Least likely third party from a company with a Fighter
60. Reporter & Wrestler: 3.40% Chance
61. Thrall: 3.07% Chance
62. Sirfetch'd: 2.99% Chance
63. Crypto: 2.67% Chance
64. Obstagoon: 2.18% Chance
65. Vault Boy: 1.82% Chance
66. Melmetal: 1.71% Chance
67. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 1.66% Chance - 34.17% Want
68. Hornet: 1.45% Chance
69. Segata Sanshiro: 1.30% Chance - Only character rated to not technically come from a video game
70. The Blob: 1.14% Chance
71. Falinks: 1.00% Chance - Least likely first/second party
72. Gnar: 0.89% Chance
73. Hat Kid: 0.85% Chance
74. Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 0.58% Chance - Least likely Japanese character, least likely character from a repped series
75. Bubsy: 0.21% Chance - Least likely character

Spoiler: Want Totals

Want key: Pink = Community Stars (#FF69B4) [65+%], Brown = Fan Favorites [#8B4513] (60+%), Yellow = Popular (50+%), Denim? I dunno what this color is, but it represents the new Well-Liked tier (40+%), (Purple is Average (25+%), Black is Unpopular (below 25%).

1. Concept: A character who isn't the star of their own game: 86.50% Want - Most wanted Fighter concept
2. (Nintendo, The Legend of Zelda) Concept: New Zelda character: 80.41% Want - Most wanted set of characters from Japan/first party/repped series
3. (Activision, self-titled) Crash Bandicoot: 75.78% Want - Most wanted individual character character, most wanted third party, most wanted western character
4. Echo Fighters as DLC: 75.40% Want - Most wanted non-Fighter concept
5. Concept: Assist Trophy becomes playable: 74.72% Want
6. (Nintendo, Kirby) Bandana Dee: 74.41% Want
7. (Capcom, Ace Attorney) Phoenix Wright: 70.91% Want - Most wanted third party from a company with a fighter
8. Standalone Stage DLC: 70.88% Want - "Least wanted" non-Fighter concept
9. (Konami) Concept: Contra rep: 70.80% Want
10. (Nintendo, Donkey Kong) Dixie Kong: 70.52% Want
11. (Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, Where in the World is --->) Carmen Sandiego: 69.73% Want
12. (Square-Enix, Tomb Raider) Lara Croft: 69.06% Want
13. (Nintendo, Golden Sun) Isaac: 67.22% Want - Most wanted new first party
14. (SEGA, Yakuza) Kazuma Kiryu: 66.17% Want
15. (KOEI-TECMO, Ninja Gaiden) Ryu Hayabusa: 64.32% Want
16. Dante: 64.23% Want
17. 2B: 64.09% Want
18. Geno: 62.93% Want
19. Travis Touchdown: 62.86% Want
20. Skull Kid: 61.30% Want
21. Paper Mario: 61.14% Want
22. Master Chief: 60.94% Want
23. Waluigi: 60.75% Want
24. Arle Nadja: 60.50% Want
25. Reimu Hakurei: 60.05% Want
26. Amaterasu: 60.00% Want
27. Alucard: 58.63% Want
28. Chun-Li: 57.30% Want
29. Nightmare: 57.27% Want
30. Midna: 57.17% Want
31. Bomberman: 55.00% Want
32. Sora: 54.44% Want
33. Shantae: 54.28% Want
34. Neku Sakuraba: 53.89% Want
35. Heihachi: 53.60% Want
36. Rayman: 52.35% Want
37. Spyro the Dragon: 52.04% Want
38. Elma & Sol Badguy: 51.18% Want (tied)
39. Octopath Traveler rep: 51.00% Want
40. Rex: 50.95% Want
41. The Knight: 50.12% Want
42. Hornet: 49.09% Want
43. Lloyd Irving: 47.85% Want - Worse want total than chance total, the "dread it, run from it, it still arrives" award
44. Quote (Mii Costume): 47.54% Want
45. Dovahkiin: 47.40% Want
46. The Knight (Mii Costume): 46.85% Want - Also worse want than chance, worse want than fighter
47. Segata Sanshiro: 43.27% Want
48. Gex: 42.50% Want
49. Toxtricity: 41.62% Want
50. Sirfetch'd: 40.64% Want
51. Monster Hunter: 37.33% Want
52. Ragna the Bloodedge: 37.19% Want
53. Big Daddy: 36.92% Want
54. Reporter & Wrestler: 36.69% Want
55. KOS-MOS: 35.24% Want
56. Concept: Devolver Digital rep: 34.17% Want
57. The Blob: 28.88% Want
58. Falinks: 28.44% Want
59. Ryo Hazuki: 28.27% Want
60. Cinderace: 27.71% Want
61. Crypto: 27.63% Want
62. Rillaboom: 27.47% Want
63. Inteleon: 27.00% Want
64. Thrall: 26.50% Want
65. Hat Kid: 23.69% Want
66. Tracer: 22.73% Want
67. Melmetal: 21.10% Want
68. Vault Boy: 20.40% Want
69. Obstagoon: 18.27% Want
70. Freddy Fazbear: 17.48% Want
71. Urshifu: 16.46% Want
72. Gnar: 12.67% Want
73. Minato Arisato/Makoto Yuki: 12.19% Want
74. Bubsy: 8.79% Want - Least wanted character

Spoiler: ARMS League

Chance is the only factor in determining ranking, but in the event of a chance tie I'll use want as the tiebreaker.

1. Spring Man: 49.76% Chance, 62.54% Want
2. Ribbon Girl: 43.91% Chance, 57.15% Want
3. Ninjara: 30.33% Chance, 53.68% Want

The Deceased: Honorable mentions to Bendy, Warframe reps, and New Horizons reps, who were never in consideration but got whacked during Volume 2 speculation.

1. Doom Slayer (2.86% Chance, 44.15% Want) | Interview
2. Ring Fit Trainer (90 Nominations) | Spirit Event
3. Shovel Knight (5.03% Chance, 48.71% Want) | Interview
4. Riesz (Unrated for Volume 2 | Volume 1: 1.50% Chance, 39.75% Want) | Spirit Event

ARMS Takeaways: Ignore this because we're in the middle of doing the ARMS ratings for next time.

Non-ARMS Takeaways: Makoto did almost as poorly as Bubsy. That's not exactly what I expected from him in terms of want, though in terms of chance... yeah. Non-star is a little nebulous, but it did very well for itself and I think that the high ratings are not unwarranted. And Contra Rep, who I can't say enough should've just been Bill Rizer's day, did very well too in want but surprisingly low in chance, considering how well Ryu Hayabusa did. Power of leaks, maybe.

 

[Sid-cada]

Min Min

Chance - 50% - I think she's likely only if Spring Man and Ribbon Girl are ruled out. While yes, she is the most popular of them all right now, popularity hasn't amounted to much, as Byleth has demonstrated. Still, she is seemingly the most popular character out their, and as a result I wouldn't be too surprised if she was picked. She'd easily get in as part of the 4-character group. As a solo, though, I think she's eclipsed.

Want - 75% - Eh, not my favorite, but not the worst. I'm fine with most ARMS characters they would pick, so I'm fairly good with whoever they pick even if their not my favorite (Spring Man).


Master Mummy

Chance - 5% - Not remotely popular or noteable compared to his companions, only really having being part of the base roster going for him. I cannot think of a reason to think he is likely, actually.

Want - 50% - Eh, he'd be cool, although he's not what I'm looking for in an ARMS rep. I'd mostly be wondering why they chose him, of all characters.


Mechanica

Chance - 0% - At least Master Mummy has ARMS; Mechanica doesn't even have that. Having a character who doesn't have the special arms is such a poor way to introduce the series I don't think they would give it to anyone no matter what, so Mechanica is out in my eyes.

Want - 50% - I like her, but as a representative of ARMS she makes no sense. I'd rather have a character that actually has ARMS, thank you.


Nominations

Nippon Ichi Rep X5

 

[Ninjaed]

I don't really get why people give Mechanica and the like 0% chance. Sure they aren't likely, but there's always those ever so slight odds that they get picked or featured as alts or something. We know there WILL be an ARMS rep so 0% is going too far imo.

 

[Glaciacott]

I honestly find it quite fascinating how some people giving their ratings here say thing like "Oh, Spring Man/Ribbon Girl/Min Min is easily the most likely ARMS character!". . . and then give them a 30% chance rating.

30% is actually fairly high and likely, in terms of probability. When talking about Smash DLC there's several possibilities, and having a 30% chance is super likely all things considered.

But then when we look at the logic that we know it's an Arms rep, it gets easier. There's 15+ candidates. In my case, my logic is that if Spring Man and Min Min are roughly equally likely, 30% each is reasonable. The remaining 40% is the portion of the pie that gets taken by other characters. Logically speaking, chances for Arms characters when added up should not exceed 100% UNLESS the person believes in a multiple alts rep (as is the case for many here) or unless the individual believes we might get two Arms reps.

On that same logic, Mummy and Mechanica should have a chance and it's true they should not be zero. But in my case I cannot see Mummy's chance being higher than 1% and in terms of values that are significant to us, it's essentially 0%.

On a side note, I'm of the opposite thought: I think percentages here are ludicrously high. Outside of Arms where we know 100% Arms gets a rep, saying a character has a 20% chance makes them rather likely considering 5 remaining fighter spots. A fifth of a chance when you have the event repeat 5 times is pretty high odds.

 

[Jomosensual]

I don't really get why people give Mechanica and the like 0% chance. Sure they aren't likely, but there's always those ever so slight odds that they get picked or featured as alts or something. We know there WILL be an ARMS rep so 0% is going too far imo.

Yeah I suppose the lowest I should go is around 6% or so, which I think is what you get when you divide 1/16.

I'd like to change both Mummy and Mechanica to 6% chance

 

[Ninjaed]

30% is actually fairly high and likely, in terms of probability. When talking about Smash DLC there's several possibilities, and having a 30% chance is super likely all things considered.

But then when we look at the logic that we know it's an Arms rep, it gets easier. There's 15+ candidates. In my case, my logic is that if Spring Man and Min Min are roughly equally likely, 30% each is reasonable. The remaining 40% is the portion of the pie that gets taken by other characters. Logically speaking, chances for Arms characters when added up should not exceed 100% UNLESS the person believes in a multiple alts rep (as is the case for many here) or unless the individual believes we might get two Arms reps.

On that same logic, Mummy and Mechanica should have a chance and it's true they should not be zero. But in my case I cannot see Mummy's chance being higher than 1% and in terms of values that are significant to us, it's essentially 0%.

On a side note, I'm of the opposite thought: I think percentages here are ludicrously high. Outside of Arms where we know 100% Arms gets a rep, saying a character has a 20% chance makes them rather likely considering 5 remaining fighter spots. A fifth of a chance when you have the event repeat 5 times is pretty high odds.

I always thought those chances were for the entire pass, not the next fighter. So like, a total of 20%, not 20% repeated 5 times.

 

[Glaciacott]

I always thought those chances were for the entire pass, not the next fighter. So like, a total of 20%, not 20% repeated 5 times.

My logic is that the event here is "becoming a smash bros playable character", something which will transpire 6 more times that we know of. Not necessarily in a specific order.

 

[amageish]

I honestly find it quite fascinating how some people giving their ratings here say thing like "Oh, Spring Man/Ribbon Girl/Min Min is easily the most likely ARMS character!". . . and then give them a 30% chance rating.
But, anyway.

I just feel like the total ARMS character scores need to add up to 100%. Like, if I gave multiple characters odds about 50%, then I'd be basically endorsing alts at that point, as we've gone over 100% and that would be saying it's very probable we're getting both of those high-scoring characters at once. Like, if Spring Man is a 70 and Min Min is a 75, then the score for both of them at once becomes 53. I do think alts are possible, but I don't think they're that likely (plus they're getting their own day of rating later).

That said, yeah, that may be overthinking the math of this thread, as we should probably be giving all characters much lower scores then we do....

 

[GoodGrief741]

SmashBoards user GoodGrief741 already made the joke that I wanted to make, and now I don't know what to say

Sorry!

This rating was near-universally noted as us being most likely to get Bill Rizer, so I will treat this as an old rating of his should he get a rerate.

I wouldn't say that. You and I made the connection to Bill, along with other people, but the majority of the ones that rated didn't mention Bill or Lance. (Not that there's really any other strong candidates, but still, a concept's a concept)

By the way, what's the interview that disconfirms Shovel Knight? I must have missed or forgotten about that one.

 

[PeridotGX]

Toilet Paper Golem

Chance - 1%. I can't see any reason to add him. He's too niche to be added for mascot reasons, and not unique enough to be added for creative uses. If you want a heavy ARMs rep, Max Brass is on the table.

Want - Abstain. I never used him in the ARMS trials and testpunches. The design doesn't speak to me.

Baby D.Va

Chance - 5%. She's a tiny bid more unique than the mummy, but not enough to make a dent. He's also not that popular.

Want - Abstain. Same thing as Master Mumm. I don't care about the character or the design.

[Insert funny ramen joke here]

Chance - 45%. In my opinion, she's the likeliest ARMS rep. Most importantly, she won the Party Crash, which will likely have lasting impacts (simmilar to Callie vs Marie in Splatoon). Kicking is a big part of her character, giving her easy, short range quick attacks. Her unique ARMS give her a bit more spice than Spring Man, but she's not as gimmicky as someone like Byte & Bark or Misagno.

Want - 20%. She's not my most wanted ARMS rep (that goes to Spring Man), but I used her during the demo and I like her playstyle well enough. The design is also pretty unique.

 

[Sari]

Day over.

Rate Concept: Dragalia Lost rep

Predict Axel Stone from Streets of Rage.

Day will sometime after Friday afternoon.

Megadoomer

-----

Some songs to get into the Dragalia Lost mood:

Spoiler: Dragalia Lost Music

 

[Perkilator]

Bo-ku-ra no Net-o-work~
Chance: 60%
Dragalia itself is in a weird spot, copyright wise. While the game and its characters are entirely owned by Nintendo, most of the music (composed by DAOKO) belongs to Toy’s Factory. They’ve been taking down the lyrical versions of the OST on YouTube, so we might end up in a FF situation music-wise but hopefully not character-wise

Want: 100%
All of my yes. Dragalia Lost is probably my favorite mobile game, despite some hiccups. Euden is one of my most wanted, so I gladly support just about any Dragalia character (even AFTER Euden).

Axel Stone: 50%

Noms: Auroros, Jyk and Poppant as Assist Trophies x5

 

[DaUsername]

Min Min is in in
Chance: 90%
She's very likely for a lot of reasons, mostly the fact that her main competition is an Assist Trophy. But there's other things supporting her inclusion, too. Like her popularity among the ARMS fanbase and apparently the developers, and winning that tournament thing from last year. There's also arguments that she won't get in for the same reason we got Corrin 2 instead of Edgelord, but a major difference is that this character wasn't chosen 8+ months before their game was released.
Also, why would they do this whole guess who thing if it's just gonna be the generic boxart guy again?
Want: 90%
When ARMS was doing that free week thing, this was the character I played the most. That has to mean something, right? Also she's cute.

The Mummy
Chance: 5%
Tell me, when you think about ARMS, is this the first character that pops into your head? Probably not. Mummy Man doesn't really have the fan demand or relevance or anything to support a playable spot in Smash.
Want: 50%
He's kinda cool, I guess. But not that interesting. Though as I've said before, I'm perfectly okay with any ARMS character we get.

Did anyone make the Overwatch reference yet?
Chance: 5%
I think she might be too nonstandard for Smash. Extending arms and mech suits are neat gimmicks on their own, but together? I don't know. She just doesn't seem like the first character they would choose.
Want: 50%
I don't really have any strong feelings one way or the other. She isn't my first pick, but she isn't my last pick either.

Dragalia prediction: 30%
Noms: Gordon Freeman x5

 

[waddledeeonredyoshi]

There are other characters besides Euden?
Chance: 25%
Dragalia Lost may be something Nintendo would want to promote but I think there are other first-party options they'd want to prioritize. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me to have a playable character from a game that still is completely absent in Europe for some unknown reason.

Want: 0%
I'm not much into mobile gaming or gatcha but the fact that I wouldn't be able to play this game even if I wanted solifies this zero for me. If it doesn't get fully localized over here soon I would not have fun watching Sakurai teach me about a game I don't have access to.

Axel Stone: 41.65%
Dr Eggman x5
Captain Toad x5

 

[jamesster445]

Finally... Dragalia Found

Chance: 50%
Want: 90%

For what it's worth Euden or any Dragalia character isnt completely impossible, there is a complete lack of Dragalia representation in Smash at all, what 4 years after Dragalia's debut. And because of the mobile game mechanics, you can craft a interesting enough playstyle based off cooldowns and stamina. Even the dragon transformations can work as a reverse Arsene, rewarding good offense as opposed to being a handicap. My only concern is that the dev team won't take those concepts into consideration and we end up with "another Fire Emblem swordsman"

Nominations: Diablo x5