JC, while a big portion of the change in the tiers was due to people learning the characters, a large amount of that also came from people just getting better at the game. That influence isn't totally gone, not by a long shot as I'm sure a good number of us are getting better at the project every week. But we know how to play melee style smash, and that should/could take a lot of the time out of getting good reads out of the characters.
I wouldn't be surprised if a character deemed garbage suddenly got shown in a new light, but on the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if what ends up being a general early consensus being pretty spot on..
In fact, in melee, never was a character ever ranked in the bottom 9 and subsequently moved out of the bottom half. In 10 years the only exception to this rule was pikachu, who once was ranked 9th from the bottom and then moved slightly out of the bottom half. That's it. The worst characters are the easiest to pick out.
Once we hit Ken era marth play (aerials instead of rollin into smashes aka good play) the List is fairly recognizable. And we understand melee style smash better now, over half a decade later.
Puff was historically ranked too low, but it is only one profound example.
When you look at the old data, its should be easier for one to say a character is bad than good. Which is what I'm doing with demo sonic; he is not as good as the better characters in the demo. Not bad, no, just not as good.
When I can talk about the updated version, I will. Hopefully he will be more competitive in that environment. I love him. But until then, my opinion is pretty strong.
Edit: Grim, as usual I agree. Something about the shell should make his roll better. Perhaps a weak hitbox somewhere in it (wherever the most fair spot is)?