All this bickering about Toad is pointless. He is significantly deserving, but he has never had a truly important role. He or should I say "they" are just a species in the in Mario series. There has never been any canon event or situation proving or even suggesting that any toad that has appeared in the vastness of the Mario series is the same Toad that appeared at a different point in it. Unlike the Yoshi and Kirby series where it is at least insinuated that some of these appearances are by the same Yoshi/kirby.
Toad is extremely recognizable amongst the Mario series and has a good chance in my opinion. If Fawful had not seemingly died in his final appearance, I would have placed him higher because he would have the potential to return in future games. 3 game appearances, being an important character in two of the three is nice, but Toad has far more appearances. Fawful has better moveset potential and has an actual personality as opposed to Toad (due to being an individual instead of a species).
Adding Fawful would be the exact same as adding Vaati. Significant villain/side villain in 2-3 games. This is an accomplishment but is it really good enough for them to be "deserving"? If Vaati appeared in another game then I would say yes. But Fawful is dead now. Unless they revive him somehow in an upcoming game, he is going to remain dead.
Generally, character in SSB need to be characters that 1: represent their series, 2:Are constantly represented in upcoming games of the series.
At this point, Toad is still appearing strongly in upcoming Mario games, while Fawful most likely will not. I then direct my focus on Toad and Bowser Jr. Both could be introduced, but does the Mario series really need that much representation? If Sakurai directs the next SSB, I would rather have Toad. But if it is handed off to someone else, I would rather have Bowser Jr. Sakurai loves clones apparently and I would never put it past him to take this easy route again in future games. I would give it a 70% chance that if Bowser Jr was to appear in SSB, he would be a slightly altered Bowser Clone (Luigified).
It is obvious however that Sakurai doesn't base his definition of "deserving" on number of appearances alone. I don't think anyone really knows how he determines which characters to add because so far it has been really random.
For a fighting game, it would be obvious to me to add the protagonist and antagonist of the series first then worry about filling in other characters. Sakurai hit them randomly throwing in supporting characters first. Based on this, I think Wolf should have been in before Falco. By all means, 3 characters if more than enough for the Star Fox series, but I would have no argument if they were to go on and add Krystal just to finish it off. The series appears to be dead, so 4 would definitely be the limit.
By "dead series" Aether means that no new Game in the series has been announced or suggested that a new game is coming. As far as I know, no new Fire Emblem, Star Fox (other than 3ds remake), F-Zero, or Earthbound games have been announced. They are Dead series for the time being.
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It has been discussed for years that Ike's moveset should go to Ganondorf. Sakurai probably hasn't saw these discussions so I wouldn't expect it to happen, although it would be the best course of action.
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I would prefer Black Shadow over Goroh, because he could take Ganondorf's slow CapnClone moveset perfectly.
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I don't understand why Jigglypuff has remained for all these years. But she will likely not be removed now because she has been there for so long. Can anyone think of a character that could use that moveset? I can't. Instead of throwing away a unique moveset, she should stay.
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@ Forgotten Soul.
Pit will obviously stay. He has a new game for 3ds. He can't be removed now.