With all of the Project Cafe talk floating around now, my RL friends and I have assembled our Panel of Nerdom and have been discussing the possibility of a new Smash. We came up with a list of characters that we thought realistically might make it into the game (versus all of the other completely unrealistic lists on the internet).
Keep in mind that these are what we all saw as realistic (we're thinking from a designer's standpoint, not a fan's standpoint), not what I personally want. We factored in popularity, ease to create moves, and the characters role in said series while deciding all of this. You ain't gonna see no "Common Enemy!" or "Female/Villain for the sake of having a Female/Villain!" or "Blank because he's AWESOME!" on this list. Also, the number of fighters is pushing the absolute MAX of what we think will be in the game. We cannot see more than what we have here in the retail release of the game.
Side note, we thought that characters like Dr. Mario (etc.) would more likely be Alternate Costumes than actual characters, seeing as how Wario and Biker Wario are not separate characters. I'm thinking that some aesthetics of attacks while in these costumes might change, like the Pill instead of Fireball for Dr. Mario, but not actual damage or anything else. (Note: These would be different than clones, who have their own stats and variations from the original characters)
I will give my own input after each section:
Super Mario series + spinoffs (7)
Mario (Dr. Mario, Paper Mario alt)
Luigi
Bowser
Princess Peach (Daisy, Rosalina alt)
Bowser Jr.
Yoshi
Wario (Biker Wario alt)
(Personal Input: Toad and Geno arn't happening, period, and we all don't think Waluigi's getting in until he has his own game.
I want Paper Mario as his own character, but that's probably not as likely as an alternate costume, despite all the original moves he could have.)
Legend of Zelda series (5)
Link
Zelda/Shiek
Gannondorf
Toon Link (or whatever equivalent will be made between now and then)
(Several characters they could choose from for this series, but they most likely won't bother. Brawl's selection was well rounded and represented the series as a whole.
We think they will make Gannon a "mixed clone" with the A-Moves of someone like Ike, and his current B-Moves.
Personally, I worry for Shiek, but perhaps I shouldn't seeing as how Ocarina is being remade.)
Metroid series (3)
Samus/Zero Suit (Dark Samus alt)
Ridley
(Dark Samus could easily be a clone, but that would require extra, unnecessary effort. I really want Weavel, but that isn't happening until he becomes a more major player in the series. One can dream, right?)
Donkey Kong series (3)
Donkey Kong
Diddy Kong
Dixie Kong
(We all wanted K. Rool, but since he wasn't in the most recent DKC game, we don't think it's happening. He'll most likely be playable if/when theres a SSB5, a handheld spinoff, or if there's going to be DLC for 4.)
Kirby series (3)
Kirby (Yarn Kirby, Prince Fluff alt)
Metaknight
Dedede
(Short, simple, sweet. Not going to change)
Star Fox series (4)
Fox
Falco
Wolf
Krystal
(Another no-brainer, in all of our minds. We think both Wolf and Falco will still be clones of Fox, with perhaps one or two original moves based on other weapons from the series. Obviously, Krystal will use her staff.)
Pokemon series (7)
Pikachu
Jiggilypuff
Pokemon Trainer (Squirtle, Ivysaur, Charizard)
Mewtwo
Lucario or Zoroark
(Mewtwo is a really enduring Pokemon on his own, and seems to have been the last (and most painful) cut from Brawl. We all think he will definitely be back.
Lucario or Zoroark... could go either way, really. Depends on whoever is most popular in the Japanese Market at the time of development.
Also, I really fudging hate Jiffilypuff. Always have, always will. I think Meowth is infinitely more deserving than her because of his place in the anime as the "Rocket Equivelant" of Ash's Pikachu. I still hold onto a faint glimmer of hope that Jiggs will be taken out and Meowth will be put in... But that's just me, apparently.)
Mother/Earthbound series (2)
Ness
Lucas
(No matter how much I want them too, they're not going to expand on this series. At all. It's really unfortunate... Hopefully, we will get some more Assist Trophies or something.)
Fire Emblem series (2)
Marth
Ike
(This series was difficult for us, because a lot of it's main characters could easily be clones or alternate costumes of eachother. So we're just leaving it at this for now.)
F-Zero series (2)
Captain Falcon (Blood Falcon alt)
Samurai Goroh
(Easily done. No hard choices here. If 4 uses DLC, Black Shadow would be quite likely also.)
Retro characters (2)
Ice Climbers
Takamaru
(Any Retro Newcomer would be useable. We chose Takamaru because of his recent cameo appearances in Samurai Warriors 3 and Captain Rainbow; its obvious to us that Nintendo is still aware that they own him.
Pit was Brawl's retro character, but he is no longer retro, so he is no longer in this category.)
WTF Characters (2)
Mr. Game and Watch
ROB
(We put nothing here because we couldn't possibly predict which WTF character they are going to choose, if any.
Also, I hate ROB. A lot. I don't consider him a game character, and time spent creating him could easily be forwarded to more deserving places. But, again, that's just me, apparently.)
Other Characters (5)
Pit [Kid Icarus series]
Olimar [Pikmin series] (Louie alt)
Isaac [Golden Sun series] (Matthew alt)
Little Mac [Punch Out!! series]
Elza [The Last Story]
(There are so many smaller Nintendo series, we couldn't possibly fit them all here. In the end, we chose Isaac because Golden Sun is a popular Nintendo RPG, Little Mac because he is tailor made for a fighting game, and Elza because the Last Story is doing phenomenally in Japan, and would do just as well here in the States, and across the PAL regions.
I wish we could add more here, but I just cannot realistically see more than these 5 in the retail release.)
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Third Party Characters (3)
Sonic [Sonic the Hedgehog series] (Shadow alt)
Snake [Metal Gear series] (Naked Snake, Old Snake alt)
Megaman [Megaman series] (Protoman alt)
(I'm still not convinced the current Third Parties are going to return, let alone bring more with them. But it's up in the air, so we left room for the most likely ones.)
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So there you have it. These are the 50 characters my Panel of Nerds and I see making it into the retail release of SSB4. Like I said earlier, 50 is REALLY pushing it, because that is a LOT of characters for any Fighting Game.
However, that still leaves the matter of DLC...
If the rumors are true, and Nintendo is seriously going after the Hardcore with Cafe, they will most definitely include a more robust online system than they did with the Wii. Seems an obvious step to that would be to support Downloadable Content for their games; Smash Bros seems to be the clear poster-child choice for them to do this.
Obviously, there could be more characters in DLC than what i have listed, or there could be absolutely no DLC whatsoever. But its not fun speculating about that stuff.
So here is a small list of characters we all think could be available after the game's retail release...
Downloadable Characters
Toon Zelda/Tetra [Legend of Zelda series]
Waluigi [Super Mario series]
K. Rool [Donkey Kong series]
Black Shadow [F-Zero series]
Shulk [Xenoblade]
Ray [Custom Robo series]
Saki [Sin and Punishment series] (Isa alt)
Starfy [The Legendary Starfy series]
Ende [Pandora's Tower]
New Characters [New Cafe Franchises]
Dash Bowman [Star Fox series]*
(All of these characters are ones that also fall into the categories we laid out, or atleast we predict that they will.
Yes, I know I cheated with the New Character thingy, but there's no way I could possibly know what's up Nintendo's sleeve
)
*(Rumor has it that one of the major Cafe Games in development is Star Fox. If it is a continuation of what I believe to be the canon ending of Command (Ending 1), Dash may very well become the Main Villain of the series, now that Andross is (maybe) dead for good. But that is all speculation on my part).
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Okay! So, this is it. These are ALL the characters we see getting into the game, Retail and DLC. These arn't all characters we want, and a lot of characters some of us wanted didn't make it.
Hope you enjoyed this list. I eagerly await to see how accurate it is.