Anyone who knows me knows I have been a big proponent of the Dragon Quest series appearing in Smash Bros for awhile now.
My reasoning is based upon many different points that I have elaborated on several occasions. So I'm going to take the lazy way out this time and condense them into bullet points. If I NEED to explain them further I shall:
1: The popularity of Dragon Quest in Japan is unparalleled and massive. In a market where the industry has been in a slump this franchise continues to sell well.
2: Nintendo has had a hand in localizing the past two games (and in the near future 3) overseas. Pledging support to help establish the series overseas. Which has proven effective due to Dragon Quest XI making Nintendo's million seller list.
3: Continuing on from point 2 what better marketing tool for a series has Nintendo had other then Super Smash Bros? Fire Emblems emergence in the West has much to do with Melee's introduction of Marth and Roy. SquareEnix, likely, wouldn't be hesitant in allowing this if such a deal were in the works.
4: It is in Nintendo's interest to keep Dragon Quest a "Nintendo centered" series and indeed has been. Out of the ten main games and spin offs only two (VII and VIII) were for other consoles. Though nothing every truly hurts them they do lose a little by not having the latest Final Fantasy installment. This is why Nintendo continues to push the series as much as they do.
5: On it's own merits Dragon Quest would bring something interesting to a sequel. Imagine fighting in a floating castle in the clouds with dramatic orchestrated music in the background. Though more subjective that is a fun idea.
6: As far as my comment on Megaman. I believe once Keiji Inafune left Capcom Megaman's chances slimmed. Inafune made several comments in favor of Megaman appearing in a game one day. He was in a position were if he truly wanted to could have pushed it. With him gone uncertainty surrounds the other managers on whether they favor or even think about Smash Bros. With Nintendo handling the Dragon Quest more closely I just think as it stands now it would be an easier deal at this point.
Sorry that this is a very long read.... I tend to type on and on forever and never stop, just to get a few points across.
Yeah, I figured you were a pretty big supporter of some Dragon Quest representation. Just try not to let your own bias get in the way of proper reasoning and logic.
It is true that the Dragon Quest series is pretty popular in Japan, and it has been for a while. And since the series was brought overseas, it has sold very well. Still, most of that popularity and most of those sales come from Japan. I feel like right now, the series is a bit obscure to western markets (I have certainly never heard of it outside of Slime appearing in Mario Sports Mix), and while you might believe that it doesn't matter, it actually does quite a lot.
Some people use the logic that X character or X series is very popular in Japan, so the chances of it getting playable representation is increased. I don't believe in this reasoning at all. In fact, it seems like a much more sensible marketing approach to include characters that are known WORLDWIDE, and are also popular worldwide, then to include characters from Japan simply because they are more popular in Japan.
Of course, there are a couple examples of Japanese series and characters appearing in Smash and usually benefiting greatly from it. One obvious example is Fire Emblem. Fire Emblem's appearance in Melee greatly helped promote it, but it's inclusion seems to be more simply based on Sakurai's own bias. This is also true for Lucas from the MOTHER series. MOTHER 3 was only released in Japan, but Lucas' inclusion was mostly due to Sakurai's bias and love for the series. Obviously, there aren't two MOTHER characters in the game because of their "iconic status with Nintendo." I have two sources where I could have possibly discovered this information pertaining Sakurai's bias and I can post them if you wish, and if you haven't seen them before (I'm sure most people here have). If the information can't be found in either of those sources, I don't know what you can do other than take my word for it I guess.
So worldwide popularity AND familiarity is pretty important. Megaman is both very popular around the world and also very well known, or at least recognizable, to many gamers. Dragon Quest, although more popular than Megaman in Japan (based on sales) is a more obscure series to the western market, despite the couple games that were sold worldwide. Lastly, Megaman's popularity among Smash fans in general is much greater than Dragon Quest's popularity.
Let's not forget that not only is Dragon Quest more obscure to western markets and much more popular in Japan, but it is also a third party series. We know that Sakurai sees these characters as "guest characters," and he knows that some people resent the fact that third party characters appeared in this Nintendo fighting series, so introducing more third party characters and series isn't something he would consider easy. Snake got in because of a special request from his developer, and I'm sure that played its part in promoting Brawl to fans who would otherwise not care for the game. Sonic got in because of popularity alone, and I can definitely see that happening with Megaman.
Lastly, I don't think that Capcom's (or whoever is in charge of Megaman) thoughts differ much from Inafune's. I don't see why they would be reluctant to offer Megaman or allow his inclusion, especially since Smash works great as a promotional tool. While that would greatly help Dragon Quest, I don't see why Megaman would be reluctant to accept some promotion as well.
The bottom line is, Megaman is more popular worldwide and with Smash fans in general and he is more familiar to western markets AS WELL AS the Japanese market. His popularity puts him close to the same position Sonic was in before Brawl and even before Melee, and this plus the fact that he is easily recognizable around the world makes him much more likely than any Dragon Quest character. Remember, they are both third parties, so that already wounds their chances a bit.
See what I'm saying? REALLY SORRY for the huge post!!!