Here is a brief essay I recently wrote regarding the merits and prospects of a possible Smash Bros. for the 3DS:
There seems to be quite a bit of discussion recently on this board regarding the possibility of and merits of a possible Smash Bros. on the 3DS. There are many whom would welcome a new Smash Bros. with open arms, while there are others who feel the series should stick strictly with consoles. The purpose of this essay will be for me to articulate my thoughts regarding this matter (whether Smash Bros. would be "good" on the 3DS and how likely is it).
As with many other Smash fans, I am eagerly anticipating the announcement of a fourth installment to the Smash Bros. series. I personally do not care what console it is on, but I realize that it will almost certainly not be made for the Wii. Sakurai has stated in the past that he has an objection to releasing more than one Smash Bros. game on the same console (he was asked about doing a Melee 2 back in 2003 and he said that "it would not be right" for more than one Smash game to be released for a console).
This leaves one of two consoles for the development of Smash 4 to be developed on: the 3DS or the Wii 2 (or whatever Nintendo's next home console is called). There are both advantages and disadvantages regarding development for the next Smash Bros. on one of these two platforms.
There exists several key advantages to developing Smash 4 for the 3DS. One advantage is lower development costs (though that would be an advantage for Nintendo). Another advantage is that Sakurai is already very familiar with the hardware, and the development cycle for Smash 4 would not take more than two years if it was developed for the 3DS. So assuming development began of Smash 4 by the end of this year for the 3DS, it would be on the market before the end of 2013.
Another key advantage to developing Smash 4 could possibly be a much larger roster size. Since a 3DS Smash Bros. sequel would still be in the same generation in graphics as Melee and Brawl, developers of it would not be impeded with making the engine and graphics for it. As a matter of fact, Melee'e engine or Brawl's engine could be imported for a theoretical Smash 4 and build on the roster from one of those two game from there. Its for this reason that a Smash 4 for the 3DS has a higher probability of having a higher roster than one for the Wii 2 (assuming Nintendo devotes the same amount of time and resources for a 3DS Smash 4 that they did for Melee and Brawl). It is very much possible that a Smash 4 for the 3DS could have 50 or more playable characters under such a scenario.
However, there also exists several key disadvantages to a Smash 4 being made for the 3DS. One is that it is quite possible for the graphics for it to be a step back from Brawl's, and possibly even Melee's. Every Smash so far has had a leap in graphics over its previous installment, so for Smash 4 to be a step backward in graphics might be a disappointment for some fans. Another key disadvantage to a 3DS Smash Bros. would be that the presentation would be a step back compared to Brawl's (especially in the case of an Adventure Mode and music availability). Brawl's needed to be a double-layered disc in order to contain all the SSE cutscenes and all of those music tracks and the Masterpieces. A Smash 4 that is developed for the 3DS will likely have less than a handful of CGI cutscenes, much less music tracks (probably would have about the same amount of tracks as Melee), and the omission of Masterpieces. A third major disadvantage to a 3DS Smash Bros. would be the limitation of multiplayer outside of outline. Smash Bros. is famed as being a "party game"and it is quite possible that Smash Bros. would lose its "party" feeling if it moved to a handheld. Multiplayer for a portable Smash Bros. is further complicated by the fact that there would need to be four people with four copies of Smash 3DS on four 3DS's as opposed to a console Smash Bros. were only one copy of the game would be needed to play with three other people. However, this downside might be mitigated by the inclusion of a robust online multiplayer mode.
A Smash 4 that is developed for Nintendo's next home console would have several unique advantages. For one, the graphics would be a massive leap over Brawl's, as big as the leap from Smash 64 to Melee in graphics. Also, it is likely that the disc medium used for Nintendo's next console will be much larger than that of the Wii's which would allow for much more content compared to Brawl. A second advantage is that Sakurai eagerly wants to work on a HD console so he could go into developing a Smash 4 for the Wii 2 with much more enthusiasm than if he were to make it for the 3DS (which is weaker than the Wii).
However, as with the 3DS, there are also several disadvantages for making Smash 4 for Nintendo's next home console. One disadvantage is the possibility of a smaller roster. It is very likely that if Smash 4 were made for a HD console, its roster would probably only have a few extra characters (jn terms of total playable character count) compared to Brawl, and possibly even smaller. It is quite likely that a Smash 4 for Nintendo's next console could have a roster roughly the same size as Brawl's. This would either mean much less newcomers compared to the previous three Smash games, or lots of cuts from the existing Smash Bros. roster (as of Brawl) in order to make room for a sizable amount of newcomers.
Another key disadvantage to a Wii 2 Smash Bros. would be that the development times would likely be longer than that of Melee and Brawl. A Smash 4 for the Wii 2 will likely have a development time of at least three years, which means a longer wait, and quite possibly a roster only the same size even with a full extra year of development time. Sakurai is very eager to work on a HD console and "pushing it to its full potential". It is quite likely much of the development time for Smash 4 on the Wii 2 would be devoted to graphics and a high level of detail. Further complicating this is that no one at Nintendo has had experience developing a game for a HD console, however, even is Nintendo outsources development of Smash 4 to a studio that has had extensive experience with HD games, the development time and Sakurai wanting to place a high emphasis on the graphics still be factors.
It is quite possible that in order to compensate for Smash 4 only having a roster the same size as Brawl, that there will be further cuts made to the existing Smash roster, and that there will be even more guests (third-party characters) added in order to increase hype for a Smash Bros. game that has a smaller roster.
As to the probability of Smash 4 being made for the 3DS, I think it is unlikely to happen. Although Sakurai now has had extensive hands-on experience developing for the 3DS (Kid Icarus: Uprising), ir seems as though he is really itching to make a game for a HD console, which means that Smash 4 will likely be made for the Wii 2. Also, I think Sakurai would not like scaling down the presentation for a Smash Bros. on the 3DS.
If a Smash Bros. is made for the 3DS it would likely be a port (with maybe a few extras) of Melee or Brawl. However, as to the case of an entirely original Smash Bros. being made for the 3DS, I think its unlikely. Though Paper Mario, a series that was once only relegated to consoles (and also only has one game per console much like Smash Bros.) has made the jump to the 3DS. Mario Kart is another series that was very popular on consoles that made a successful transition to handhelds too, while still having a multitude of new content.
It really depends. If people want much more extras and much better graphics in a future Smash Bros., then they should desire Smash 4 being made for the Wii 2. If they desire a roster that has the potential to have 10 more characters than Brawl's and to have a Smash Bros. on the go, then they should desire a Smash Bros. for the 3DS.
I think at the earliest we will see Smash 4 at E3 2012, with the highest liklihood being E3 2013, with the latest possible date being E3 2014. So at the earliest we are looking at a Smash 4 unveil only a year away, while at the latest another three years. It seems people are already eager with anticipation for a new installment in the most popular fighting franchise and one of Nintendo's most beloved series. However, it seems most of the characters people are picking for their "wish lists" are obscure, side characters, one-shots, or otherwise simply favorites of the user. There are less than a handful of Nintendo All-Stars not yet playable. There seems to be much less consensus on what people want in terms of who to include in Smash 4 compared to what I saw with Melee and Brawl. It will be curious to see if Sakurai notices this too, and instead opts for expanding gameplay and feature aspects of Smash Bros. instead of its roster.
This will be determined whenever Smash 4 is finally announced and unveiled.
That concludes my essay discussing the possible benefits and deficits of a possible Smash 4, as well as the probability of it even happening.
