I am back. So its been two years since this thread has started? Two years later, there is still no Smash 4 announced, but then against I did not expect Smash 4 to be announced in 2010. I think the earliest Smash 4 will be announced will be 2012, so at the earliest we are looking at another 1.5 years of speculation before we get out first Smash 4 newcomers. Anyway, I have decided to make another post considering there have been some new games released that could alter the chances of certain characters being chosen as playable characters for Smash 4.
Here are the few new bits of roster speculation based on some new developments.
Golden Sun: Dark Dawn:
First off, Golden Sun. As you all may or may not know, Golden Sun: Dark Dawn was released more than three weeks ago in Japan. The game had a disappointing opening week, and the game's total sales after three weeks is at 65K, which is lower than even the opening week for the prior two Golden Sun games (GS1 did 140K in its opening week, while GS2 did 104K). The finals sales number for GS1 in Japan was 400K, and for GS2 it was 275K. So there was already a massive dropoff in the series's popularity in Japan starting with The Lost Age. Golden Sun typically has higher sales in the West than it does in Japan though. However, the large dropoff is disturbing. Golden Sun 3 will probably at best end up crawling its way to 100K in Japan, seeing as the game has not shown to be having any legs in Japan (in comparison to Epic Yarn, which also had a disappointing opening week, seems to be having sales legs).
The series declining popularity could do several things. One is that it could deter Camelot from bringing out a fourth game in the series. Another is that Golden Sun was a far more popular series prior to the development of Brawl, yet that still did not give Sakurai any thought to give the series a playable character (instead its only content was regulated to an Assist Trophy, a trophy of said Assist Trophy, and a remix of a track from Golden Sun: The Lost Age). If the series is even less popular now, perhaps Sakurai might decide to ignore the series again for a playable spot when Smash 4 begins development.
However, there is some good news for Isaac fans. Isaac is in Golden Sun Dark Dawn and seems to be a pretty important character (even being a temporary party member at one point). Also, its not spoilers considering that this is information that was put out in Japanese magazines prior to the game coming out. With Isaac having an important role in all three games in the series, perhaps Sakurai might be convinced to have him as the playable character despite not being the main protagonist since the original (and due to the lackluster sales thus far of the latest release).
Still, the disappointing Japanese sales for the latest Golden Sun might hurt the series chances for getting a playable character in Smash 4.
Mario Sports Mix:
This is the fourth Mario game developed by Square-Enix. The three prior Mario games developed by them include Super Mario RPG, Itagaki Street DS, and Mario Hoops. In the two Mario games Square-Enix made after SMRPG, Square-Enix did not include Mario RPG exclusive party members as playable characters. Many hoped that Square-Enix would finally include Geno and Mallow as playable characters in Mario Sports Mix, however, now that all the characters have been revealed on the site, those hopes can pretty much be laid to rest.
All of the Final Fantasy characters that were playable in Mario Hoops, have returned for Mario Sports Mix. These characters include Moogle, Black Mage, White Mage, Ninja, and Cactuar. Miis have also been added as a playable character for this game. However, perhaps the biggest new is that Slime is a playable character. This marks the second game in which the mascot of Dragon Quest has been a playable character in a game alongside Mario. Overall, the only three newcomers for this game compared to Mario Hoops, are Toad, Mii, and Slime.
However, there exists a small chance that there are more characters in the game that we do not know about yet (the game comes out in a few days in Japan). However, considering that Square-Enix revealed all the hidden characters for Mario Hoops prior to that game coming out as well, the chances are not that likely.
Despite the apparent exclusion of Geno and Mallow, Square-Enix has not forgotten about Super Mario RPG. In Itagaki Street DS, there was a remix of the Super Mario RPG Mushroom Kingdom theme. In Mario Sports Remix, there is a Sunken Ship court that appears to be based off the Sunken Ship from Super Mario RPG.
Does anyone else think this might boost the chances for a Final Fantasy and/or Dragon Quest character being in Smash 4? Also, this game also bodes well for Toad and Mii both having starred in yet another game, with Toad being the only Mario newcomer for this game compared to Mario Hoops. Although Sakurai said no to Miis in Brawl, I have a feeling that Sakurai might be having some second thoughts considering how much the Miis are being included in everything and the overall tremendous popularity of them.
Donkey Kong Country Returns:
Well, this is probably one in which a lot of people are nervous about. Well, as to the quality of the game, it has been getting some stellar reviews with the only complaint being the game's high difficulty in the later levels. However, the other things that people have been worrying about with Returns, I cannot say the same.
The only returning Donkey Kong Country characters that appear in Returns are Donkey Kong, Diddy Kong, Cranky Kong, Rambi, and Squawks. Yep that's it. No other Kongs are in the game. And like Retro said months ago in an interview, there are no crocodiles either, we includes K. Rool.
I wonder what this development means for the Donkey Kong series getting a newcomer for Smash 4? Dixie Kong was not only absent in this game, but also Mario Sports Mix (which is bad considering that Dixie was playable in Mario Hoops, and she was one of the few characters from that game cut from Mario Sports Mix). Dixie's advantage over K. Rool was hr tendency to be much more likely to appear in Donkey Kong and Mario spinoffs over K. Rool.
As for K. Rool, this could very well be a massive blow to his chances. This is the first big budget Donkey Kong game in years, and he is absent from it. K. Rool has also never made any appearances in Mario spinoffs aside from the Mario Baseball game on the Wii. There is a chance that K. Rool could end up going the way of Donkey Kong Junior, another important character to the Donkey Kong series who has ceased to make any more appearances in any new games (DKJ's last new appearance in a game was Game & Watch Gallery 4, which was released back in 2002). This lack of any role in the biggest DK game of this generation could very well make Sakurai decide not to include him for Smash 4. However, if Retro decides to make a Donkey Kong Country Returns 2 prior to the Wii 2 being released that has K. Rool as its main antagonist, then K. Rool will shoot back as being one of the most likely characters for Smash 4. However, right now, we must consider that his lack of appearance in this game could make him not make it into Smash 4 as a playable character, and possibly even going the same route as DKJ.
I think there could very well be a good chance that there will be no Donkey Kong series newcomer for Smash 4 if Dixie Kong and K. Rool do not end up getting any more important roles in their series prior to the development of Smash 4. I am getting the feeling now that Sakurai might very well expand into expanding "guest" slots due to the vacuum of Nintendo characters he feels are worth adding as newcomers.
Well, that concludes my latest speculation. I hope there are some of you that enjoyed reading it, or at least found the speculation to be intriguing.