On the subject of third parties:
Sonic is staying seeing as how many people requested him to begin with, if you thought Mewtwo and Roy are bad wait until Nintendo removes Sonic! Sega could pull him if they chose to, honestly though Sega uses all the advertisement it can get with Sonic as it is. Snake is not likely to leave either seeing as how big of a part in competitive play he is. Again Konami is the deciding factor if they want to remove him, I have a feeling seeing as Snake is in Brawl already that they won't have any qualms with him returning.
Face it, the guest characters are here to stay and a majority of people like it that way. No, no one wants it to become Nintendo Vs. everyone else, but having guest characters do no harm to the game, it only adds to it. Megaman and Castlevania are two third party series that come to mind when I think of having a large history with Nintendo, one series may be more likely to appear but the idea is bringing a larger history to Smash. They neither hurt nor detract from the game in any way, Smash is still a Nintendo game, it is not littered with non-Nintendo characters. Nor would be, if there were say 4 non-Nintendo characters in a roster of say 53 characters, would that be overkill? The point is not that we are going to have 4 third party characters, but that when you see the roster as a whole you discover how few 2,3,4 really are.
You're right about that. While the guest fighters don't belong to Nintendo, they don't overwhelm the main roster (we're not talking about M.U.G.E.N. or Card Sagas Wars (
http://mugenguild.com/forumx/index.php?topic=93401.0) here) and they do bring some variety to it. As long as the 3rd parties in question were involved with Nintendo in some way in the past, they are welcome to join the roster. I, for one, welcome any guest fighters with open arms!
Concerning 3rd parties that had a large history with Nintendo...There is Bomberman, who always brought multiplayer gaming to the forefront (especially with the Super Multitap that was made for Super Bomberman). It helps that one of his games was changed in the US to have Wario in it, so this wouldn't be the first time that ol' Bomber would get involved in a nintendo crossover.
Also, there is Pac-Man. His tried-and-true arcade history would fit in easily with other arcade veterans like Mario and Donkey Kong. He's had his fair share of Nintendo games, too.
A slightly-lesser example of a possible candidate is Ryu Hayabusa. Before he started bringing ultraviolence to the Xbox and PS3, his original trilogy was adapted to the NES, to the delight of hardcore fans everywhere. It helps that the Ninja Gaiden series had helped to pioneer the concept of story cinema scenes in video games (which was unheard of at the time). Luckily, he more recently had a game from his revival series made for the Nintendo DS, so that helps a bit. It sorta helps that Team Ninja is developing Metroid: Other M, too.
What I kind of hope for 3rd paries is sort of like Clownbot's where there are two from each company (with Capcom added.) That being said, I'd like for Konami to have Snake and Simon, Capcom to have Mega Man and Chun Li, and Sega to have Sonic and Vyse. Of course, Chun Li is questionable there, and Vyse will never get in, but I can dream, can't I?!?
That would be nice. This would certainly help to show how varied the 3rd party companies' series can get. Basically, a small sample of the companies' respective histories.
That said, Ryu will obviously get in over Chun-Li. He is practically the figurehead of the entire Street Fighter franchise, so it wouldn't be smart to pick someone else in his place. I'm sorry that Chun-Li won't make it in. She might become an AT, though.
As for a 2nd Sega rep...It's hard to say at this point (especially with the few franchises that showed up on the Gamecube). Many Sega games have been released on the Virtual Console, so that helps a bit (if only slightly).
I don't know if he is really that unpredictible. I think Kojima simply remade the PS1 original for the Gamecube just to meet Sakurai's "third party characters must have appeared on a Nintendo console at least once" rule so he could convince Sakurai to add Snake. I think this was what Sakurai meant by Kojima "practically begging" him to add Snake. If I see a new Metal Gear game for the Wii even though there are still several more games on the PS3, I will suspect that this is Kojima's way of "begging" Sakurai to add Snake in SSB4.
I'm starting to think that Kojima likes the idea of Snake showing up in crossovers for Nintendo games. He had made an appearance in DreamMix TV World Fighters prior to Smash. That game
also happened to be made for a Nintendo console. Coincidence? I think not!
Speaking of unpredictable folks, Suda 51 (who will be involved in a secret project with Kojima) has expressed interest in No More Heroes' Travis Touchdown showing up in Smash (confirmed here: (
http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/9322/nmharticle5.png). Thus, he wants him to become a big video game star (he's his favorite creation, after all). I wouldn't put it past him to develop No More Heroes: Desperate Struggle (on the Wii) for that reason. It's been hinted at that he plans to branch out the franchise to another console, as he said that NMH2 would be the last NMH that he'll make for the Wii, which makes sense, as he's apparently using the system's capabilities to his advantage this time around (in other words, he's pretty much done everything that he could do with the system's capabilities for NMH). Whether or not he wants to make a NMH sequel for the next Nintendo console remains to be seen.