Marth has a grab and aerials...? Fox being safe vs. those requires him to run back, not stand/do moves in place.
No. Grab, dash attack and dash canceled dtilt all lose to fox standing in place with an attack. A rising fair could hit fox, however it isn't exactly safe on hit.
Marth has to take a risk to hit Fox, but Fox has to take risks to stay in that zone, or to get into that zone in the first place.
But fox doesn't have to take many risks. Fox at the metagame is about reducing risks. How much risk is there to moving outside marth's range? Almost none. How much risk is there in remaining outside marth's range? Less risk than nair shining on a shield.
Uthrow marth at low percent, he DIs behind you so uair doesn't combo, you full hop bair him, and then what? Often times you get straight up faired out of this after you hit him when you're still in the air. I understand positional advantage etc. but I feel like Fox has a harder time exploiting this at low percents because he doesn't have time to get directly under Marth before fair comes out.
Theres a lot going on here. For one, marth being able to hit fox after the bair is 100% false. Two, marth is still at a frame disadvantage to fox after he bairs and lands since fox's bair autocancels in a fullhop. Heres a picture of fox performing a fullhop bair into utilt while marth does an immediate fair.
better on shield is irrelevant because with good spacing the risk is usually that you get grabbed. Also, its not like Marth is unhappy when he gets to dtilt a shield (spaced) and IASA.
Spacing in a fighting game is a 2 person issue. Spaced approaches and spaced pressure have a lot more chance for error, which makes it inconsistent. Having frame advantage on shield (or a shine) has more margin for error.
Better reward is not necessarily true because of the hitconfirms problem. Fox's cleanest hitconfirm is probably just overshot grab ( or running shine, or late hit dair -> shine -> grab which is pretty much a grab with 6 extra percent or whatever), but Marth has this option too.
Woah thats a lot of options fox has on the approach... surprising! But why are you ignoring the most basic: late nair. A late nair can be hit confirmed into various things (shine, utilt, more aerials) and is safe on shield and CC.
Obviously Marth's dtilt doesn't true combo into stuff, but it puts Marth in a good position (spaced at sword range with slight frame advantage) where it's easy to bait stuff and grab him. I'm not saying this is a great reward, but it's also lower risk. At higher percents where it forces a knockdown while pushing Fox closer to the edge it, it gets even better.
So basically I think Marth's approach with grab/dash attack is comparable to Fox's overshot approaches, but he also has the safer option of dtilt.
Dtilt doesn't combo into anything. I think you could have stopped there. If you are trying to say guaranteed combo + positioning is comparable to just positioning, i don't think thats right.
I don't understand why dtilt is "more telegraphed" than a Fox approach considering he can do it as soon as he leaves his DD.
Consider marth's options from a dash. Doing an aerial is out of the question. At that point his options are grab and dtilt/dash attack. Fox can shield when he sees marth exit his dash space and since grab has such a different spacing that you can react to the change in space with a dodge.
Marth also has a higher reward option than anything else either of them have (wd forward tipper at low percents).
0% shine spike???
This isn't true, unless you mean it in something other than a literal sense.
Fox can stand in place on the ground and be perfectly safe from marth's AC nair. In this gif I didn't do anything with fox. He gets touched by the first hit but that doesn't matter. In the end he had 13 frames to twiddle his thumbs before marth was able to shield. This would be extended further by the fox player holding down.
Fox can simply run around marth and shine. Marth is free if he is doing an AC nair.
??? Trade at WORST? Since when do Fox's moves trade with Marth's when spaced?
Well for one, the whole point of challenging marth is to keep him honest when he jumps. Early aerials with marth are extremely risky so simply going in before the peak of the jump is a hard punish for this type of play. If marth starts mixing in early aerials, lets just say fox doesn't have to look too hard to find something to punish.
As for the trade itself, yes fox's aerials can trade with marth's. Fox has this fantastic move called back air. It trades or beats just about any move in the game. There is a small spacing where marth's fair will out range bair, however it is impossible to land it consistently. More often than not, if both moves were to come out at the same time, there would be a trade.
Extremely risky because of empty hop waveland back.
"Extremely risky" is an exaggeration. Going into a situation where falcon can stomp->knee you is risky. Getting into a situation where marth gets a few hits is risk, but not extremely risky. Not to mention, this is simply the overshoot mixup revisited.
Marth's bread and butter in the MU is definitely grounded DD, but his aerials aren't useless in neutral. I feel like the value of Marth's sh options in neutral is giving him the ability to initiate an alternate mixup game whenever he wants. On paper it's just a different neutral situation, but since Marth is the one choosing when to do it he has the advantage since it helps make his regular DD less predictable, and Fox may not always be ready to respond appropriately to it if they are focused on combating the regular DD.
While I agree that maintaining unpredictability is important, I still don't think you understand how bad marth's jump game is against fox. Marth's aerial movement can't keep up with fox, he essentially has no chance at actually catching fox when he jumps. All marth can do is hope fox mistimes his punish and either runs into the attack or wiffs the grab (assuming marth dodged afterward). Marth has some decent aerial approach tricks against other characters, but fox is not one of them.
Horrible is a huge exaggeration. At low percents Marth can hit fox or get away while Fox is still in the lag of the uair because Marth isn't all that high up in the air. Platforms also assist him in getting away. Obviously being on a platform isn't an excellent position, but Fox is less good at taking advantage of this than Marth is.
Uair autocancels and marth is in considerable amount of lag after just the first hit of fox's uair. Fox gets to the grounds before marth is even out of lag, and fox's utilt beats marth fair since his fair starts from above.
As for Marth's damage output...
-Marth's grab punishes on FD are self-explanatory.
-Otherwise, Marth gets to CG or dthrow techchase until they get to a position to be thrown onto a platform, where he can cover multiple tech options with well-spaced utilts/uairs that combo into more utilts/uairs. He also has high reward mixups like waveland -> cg on the platform, tippering a techroll away, wd reverse utilt -> spike on techroll away, etc.
Platforms actually hinder marth's combo game on fox. The only stage marth can remotely cover every option is yoshis story. On battlefield, marth can't cover both corners of the platform with his sword.
Waveland CG straight up doesn't work. Fox will jump or dodge before marth is even up there.
Also, the utilt-spike only works on bad DIs in a certain percent range. Very situational. I'm surprised you would have mentioned it at all.
They both have fairly consistent damage building stuff on each other, but Fox's can sometimes be thwarted by DI/SDI, and Marth's techchasing is better at linking together punishes to take entire stocks than Fox's "air chasing" is on Marth. Marth also has super high reward mixups he can use in addition to the consistent stuff.
Marth's tech chasing actually has many holes. The dthrow tech chase only works at the edge, and thats if the fox player doesn't know how to slide off the stage to grab the edge. Anywhere else on the stage and marth has to guess which way fox is going. Marth also doesn't have any reliable way to reset fox if he chooses not to tech.
As for taking entire stocks, fox can literally pressure marth to death. By abusing that spacing I mentioned in my previous post, marth is unable to move forward and with his back to the edge his options run out quite quickly.
Overall in this post you underestimate fox's ability to control the stage while over valuing direct damage combos. Controlling the stage is the most valuable thing in the game. Suppose marth is falling and fox is standing on the ground. Marth has 3 options: double jump, land with an attack or land without an attack. Landing with an attack is the most simple; cover yourself as you fall. Landing without an attack is a mixup that allows you to escape if they expect an attack. Jumping is the worst option because fox is able to follow you even if he missed the first attempt, and at that point he can cover all marth's options by looking for a trade. Trading in that scenario means marth is out of a jump and if he goes off stage he could easily be dead.
Being fox in the above scenario is much better than being samus or ganon or even marth in the above situation. Those characters simply don't have the option coverage to turn the situation into a positive almost regardless of the opponent's actions. Fox does.
Poor DI from the SDI? explain. Aren't we SDIng to the side?
The proper way to SDI a uair is to DI right on the throw and SDI left (or vice versa). If you do this and the fox bairs then you are DIing in and are set up for further comboing.