Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[fogbadge]

Thanks. I have so many games on my backlog I need to finish, it’s a bit overwhelming. I need to learn to stop buying new 100 hour JRPGs until I finish the ones I already have lol.

that would probably be sensible

 

[Diddy Kong]

So since Xenoblade DLC is launching tomorrow (and causing more trouble on Nintendo's outdated network), I'll say that I hope that Melia becomes the next Xenoblade character over anyone in later games.

She's a much better "wait and see" pick rather than "obligatory new face" that Pokémon and Fire Emblem get.

She and Nia are possible picks yes, but am not betting on them. They don't quite offer the unique mechanics Noah or Mio could have with the class system and weapon switching, even if they're unique in their own right.

Personally am pretty sure Noah is gonna be the one character chosen as the new Xenoblade character next Smash. And am totally fine with that, he makes lots of sense and would have a great potential moveset.

 

[Wonder Smash]

While Little Mac and Mega Man have had modern appearances, in Smash they are pretty much retro characters. Mac takes inspiration primarily from the arcade game in all ways but design and his final smash. Mega Man is essentially his NES self in Smash. IMO, if your appearance in Smash is intrinsically tied to your old school appearances, you lean retro. It's why I would say that Mega Man and Mac are Retro, while your examples are not.

That pretty much applies to almost every character that came from the 80s and 90s, though. Look at Ryu and Ken. Many of their animations and sound effects are also tied from their old school appearances, specifically their SFII appearances. It's just a nice little nostalgic touch added from the most popular games from the characters' series. It doesn't really make them retro characters. Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt, and Mr. Game & Watch are the only true retro characters in the roster right now, as they have no modern appearances and are taken from the decade that they originated from.

 

[fogbadge]

Personally am pretty sure Noah is gonna be the one character chosen as the new Xenoblade character next Smash. And am totally fine with that, he makes lots of sense and would have a great potential moveset.

i'm not gonna let any of us forget what happened the last time we were so sure of that

 

[Gengar84]

Noah’s a cool character so far but he does remind me a bit too much of Shulk mechanically to really stand out as a very interesting Smash character by himself. That might change as I progress but so far, using the two feel pretty similar in game as far as basic artes go.

 

[Speed Weed]

Speaking of tradition, there is one that I think is worth discussing: the retro slot.

While in Ultimate we did not get a traditional retro pick, I would argue that some of our third parties filled that slot instead. Terry and the Belmonts both pulled from that 80s/Early 90s era that we tend to associate with Retro picks. I think for the sake of argument, anything before the jump to 3D could be considered fair game for a retro pick. I think Terry's initial reveal also highlights this well: they literally highlighted how old the Neo Geo and as a result Terry were.

What I think this means is that while we will probably get a retro newcomer, it might not be a NES deep cut from Nintendo. Maybe instead of getting a Takamaru we get a Ryu Hayabusa. An Arthur from Ghosts and Goblins instead of an Excitebiker. Heck, I could see Ys getting the nod as well if they went in a Terry style direction in particular. I think that at the end of the day, there is still this clear desire to represent Nintendo and gaming history in Smash. Just do not be shocked if the retro pick is not Takamaru.

this kinda sucks actually

 

[Swamp Sensei]

this kinda sucks actually

What does?

 

[osby]

I'm convinced that a good portion of this thread only throws "new faces" under the bus to give their faves credentials that they don't have.

"Oh yeah, they're not the most popular or relevant character... but at least they wouldn't be a dirty shill pick!"

What does?

Not getting Takamaru, I assume.

 

[Gengar84]

I'm convinced that a good portion of this thread only throws "new faces" under the bus to give their faves credentials that they don't have.

"Oh yeah, they're not the most popular or relevant character... but at least they wouldn't be a dirty shill pick!"



Not getting Takamaru, I assume.

I have no issues whatsoever with “shill picks” representing characters from the newest games. That makes a ton of sense and a lot of the time, they are still cool and fun characters in their own right. I just don’t want those to become the only types of characters ever considered. It’s good to have a mix of both new faces and old favorites as well as a few fun surprises.

 

[Speed Weed]

What does?

Not getting Takamaru, I assume.

I dunno, I just don't really like the idea of potential cool deep cuts like Takamaru or Ayumi or Sukapon having to make room for even more third-parties.

Make no mistake, I'm very much in favor of third-parties and I do like most of the options that were brought up in a vacuum, but I don't like the idea of them specifically taking away a niche that could be filled by some really fun Ninty picks. Not that the characters I brought up are really super duper likely to begin with, but I'd like for there to still at least be room for picks like that

 

[chocolatejr9]

I'm convinced that a good portion of this thread only throws "new faces" under the bus to give their faves credentials that they don't have.

"Oh yeah, they're not the most popular or relevant character... but at least they wouldn't be a dirty shill pick!"

Personally, I'm pretty open to just about anybody. Very few characters I actively DON'T want. I'll even take a shill pick if they look interesting enough.

 

[Swamp Sensei]

I dunno, I just don't really like the idea of potential cool deep cuts like Takamaru or Ayumi or Sukapon having to make room for even more third-parties.

Make no mistake, I'm very much in favor of third-parties and I do like most of the options that were brought up in a vacuum, but I don't like the idea of them specifically taking away a niche that could be filled by some really fun Ninty picks. Not that the characters I brought up are really super duper likely to begin with, but I'd like for there to still at least be room for picks like that

I understand. I feel the same way with a lot of 2000s IPs and characters.

Isaac and Chibi-Robo my beloveds.

 

[fogbadge]

Chibi-Robo my beloveds.

back off he’s mine

 

[Diddy Kong]

i'm not gonna let any of us forget what happened the last time we were so sure of that

Yeah but Rex is in a different boat , his Blade switch mechanic is way different and needed to be a complex dual fighter gimmick, and they got that part right with just the Aegis girls, whom where actually more important to the plot anyway... Also way more popular, and not actively disliked.

Noah doesn't have all these issues, the way his Blades switch could translate way more natural to Smash cause literally only his weapons change and come out of thin air / cyber space / The Matrix when he does this, and with them aren't super popular hentai chicks attached who are more popular than him.

But I see your point.

 

[fogbadge]

Yeah but Rex is in a different boat , his Blade switch mechanic is way different and needed to be a complex dual fighter gimmick, and they got that part right with just the Aegis girls, whom where actually more important to the plot anyway... Also way more popular, and not actively disliked.

Noah doesn't have all these issues, the way his Blades switch could translate way more natural to Smash cause literally only his weapons change and come out of thin air / cyber space / The Matrix when he does this, and with them aren't super popular hentai chicks attached who are more popular than him.

But I see your point.

see this is the problem I have is that everyone got into their heads that Rex could only work with the aegis or not at all even after sakurai said he considered doing that.

 

[Sucumbio]

A sword character ... With no sword moves!

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

I think with obligatory newcomer/shill picks the reaction often come down to personal context of the roster. Just speaking for myself, if I were to get Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, & Impa then at that point any new fighters from fresh titles are ones I can look at fairly with far greater ease. I'm not much of a Splatoon, Xenoblade, or Fire Emblem player, but if the aforementioned trio of characters were already included (ideally in the base game) newcomers from the latter IP's are something I'd happily applaud without any reservation.

 

[Dinoman96]

I mean, there always are surprise characters, but they also are characters that do apply as retro picks when they were chosen. While Pit is essentially a Kid Icarus Uprising rep nowadays, in Brawl he was absolutely a retro pick. Even though Mac and Mega Man in Smash 4 had modern appearances in the Wii era, I do think that they still qualify as well.

Sure, maybe the "surprise" characters do not qualify, but I think that there is still grounds to say we have had a retro rep every game.

Your daily reminder that Pit was a highly requested character.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2006/05/31/sakurais-smash-bros-update

I was well aware that Pit was a popular character in both America and Japan. I tried as best I could to design this version of him in a way that reflected current tastes, so I'm happy to see him so well received.

He was basically just a Brawl equivalent to the likes of K. Rool and Banjo, a popular fan favorite who happened to be old. Same thing with Mega Man.

Ice Climbers are still the only characters selected for the sake of having an "retro" character in there. Everyone else was more of a "surprise" ( and is Ultimate's equivalent), or a popular request like Pit or K. Rool.

 

[SPEN18]

A little late here, perhaps, but yes, I would classify the Inklings as shill, but simply a shill pick that even many classically anti-shill people were generally fine with. Probably because it was a big new IP whose merits stacked up well against many older IPs even if you were to overcautiously suppress any feelings of potential recency bias. But still it was seemingly added to a project plan less than a year after its 2015 Wii U release. So if we were strictly following anti-shill, then yeah Splatoon could've waited until Ult's DLC cycle to be added, when its merits could have been evaluated more concretely without the uncertainty of not yet having sustained success. I don't think that would've killed anyone, and in fact could've allowed resources to be directed towards something that could only make it in at base and wouldn't make as much sense having to carry a pack of standalone add-on contents.
But then again, rostering principles are rarely hard and fast rules, so it's up to evaluation how strictly anti-shill should be followed in exceptional cases, like in this particularly rare one where we have a new IP which immediately tops the console sales charts up there with various Mario and Zelda games. They also evidently used Inkling as their carry for the base game newcomer roster, which is another thing to consider; in the anti-shill view it is a risk putting such a new character in that role, but again given that Splatoon was such a vastly successful new franchise getting its first rep, the offense is much less egregious than, say, something like Corrin. In the end Splatoon is still a franchise worth representing going forward anyway so I'm not losing sleep over Splatoon being a base game add (even if I would've vastly preferred that not being the only new 1P franchise in base).

--

More on the retros and rotating cast stuff coming later.

 

[smashkirby]

I dunno, I just don't really like the idea of potential cool deep cuts like Takamaru or Ayumi or Sukapon having to make room for even more third-parties.

Make no mistake, I'm very much in favor of third-parties and I do like most of the options that were brought up in a vacuum, but I don't like the idea of them specifically taking away a niche that could be filled by some really fun Ninty picks. Not that the characters I brought up are really super duper likely to begin with, but I'd like for there to still at least be room for picks like that

Personally, I'm pretty open to just about anybody. Very few characters I actively DON'T want. I'll even take a shill pick if they look interesting enough.

I understand. I feel the same way with a lot of 2000s IPs and characters.

Isaac and Chibi-Robo my beloveds.

You guys pretty much just summed up my overall feelings in regards to Smash's rosters near-perfectly. I don't necessarily mind 3rd parties, but as someone who enjoy characters from Nintendo's catalogue far more, it's a tad disheartening to see 3rd parties render them near-obsolete more often than not. Maybe I'm just looking in the wrong places, but ever since Smash 4, it feels as though first-parties don't seem to enjoy the same level of speculation that they did (pre-Brawl) anymore.

I think with obligatory newcomer/shill picks the reaction often come down to personal context of the roster. Just speaking for myself, if I were to get Dixie Kong, Bandana Dee, & Impa then at that point any new fighters from fresh titles are ones I can look at fairly with far greater ease. I'm not much of a Splatoon, Xenoblade, or Fire Emblem player, but if the aforementioned trio of characters were already included (ideally in the base game) newcomers from the latter IP's are something I'd happily applaud without any reservation.

This is especially how I've come to look at Smash's roster these days. Like, the moment I get Bandana Waddle Dee and Dixie Kong (and a couple of retro/obscure characters I've had my eye on for some time now), I'll be even more cooler with any IPs Nintendo happens to add.

Honestly, between all the talk right now about 1st parties (be they retro/obscure or a total shill) and finally getting to play Pilotwings 64 on a modern-day Nintendo console for the first time ever since its initial release in 1996, I figure now may well be as good a time as any other to post my Lark for Smash moveset I made around the end of Smash 4's overall development.

Spoiler: Lark for Super Smash Bros. moveset (and other misc. content)

 

[SPEN18]

Ok so why is it not sustainable to promote major franchises with "rotating casts" (I'm assuming meaning each new game has familiar faces if not just outright copy paste like Mario) using the new character? Considering they could just stick around for one smash title what's unsustainable?

You could try to rotate out a slot for whatever the newest character is, but most people wouldn't like that. Even people firmly in favor of cuts, like me, don't want characters added with the purpose of them only being there for one game. I think that, naturally, some characters fall off (maybe they were a shill pick added in the midst of the hype of a recent release, but their popularity wasn't sustained or maybe didn't even take off as planned to begin with); and others owe their inclusion to strange circumstantial factors that are no longer or should no longer be relevant. In those cases I'd advocate for cuts, but ideally we end up only adding characters who stand the test of time.

 

[SPEN18]

On the retro/surprise slot(s):

I really doubt this would be "filled"/"taken" by a third party character. Remember that these are typically lower-priority, late-dev-cycle adds, there to inject some much needed diversity and history into the roster, not to have to carry a headline or a bigger budget with licensing costs. Doesn't mean we couldn't get another third party rep who could be considered "retro" or "wacky/surprise," but such a character would be filling one of the 1-2 slots for unique third party characters that we typically get, not added on top of those. Actually, the "retro" characters seem to be the most common choices for base game third parties anyway; like, Pac-Man and Mega Man both happened alongside Duck Hunt, and that all came without us seeing another more "modern" basegame 3P newcomer. Pac-Man could also sorta be considered a "wacky/surprise" type of rep despite also carrying big demand. Yeah, I still don't think more than 1-2 unique base game third party newcomers is a realistic expectation; in addition to no precedent there is also the massive difficulty of retaining any current ones.

--

Also, I'm gonna say this again: I really advocate for the "retro" label to be expanded beyond just the 80s/NES-era picks. Like, I don't see anything wrong with characters from franchises like Golden Sun or Wave Race, for example, filling one or more "retro" slots. There is a lot of history to cover, and focusing solely on characters from one decade is suboptimal at best, closed-minded and unhealthy at worst. And while characters like Banjo and K. Rool got in for demand rather than for being explicitly retro, they demonstrate the merit and excitement that can come from non-80s, non-contemporary eras.

--

edit: sorry for double post, whoops

 

[Sucumbio]

You could try to rotate out a slot for whatever the newest character is, but most people wouldn't like that. Even people firmly in favor of cuts, like me, don't want characters added with the purpose of them only being there for one game. I think that, naturally, some characters fall off (maybe they were a shill pick added in the midst of the hype of a recent release, but their popularity wasn't sustained or maybe didn't even take off as planned to begin with); and others owe their inclusion to strange circumstantial factors that are no longer or should no longer be relevant. In those cases I'd advocate for cuts, but ideally we end up only adding characters who stand the test of time.

That's fair. Really I would not mind if say, Byleth didn't come back for another game. If it's "we didn't include him because we had to make room for protag " maybe yeah ppl mad. Or it's just the new precedent, though I can't say for sure.

 

[fogbadge]

That's fair. Really I would not mind if say, Byleth didn't come back for another game. If it's "we didn't include him because we had to make room for protag " maybe yeah ppl mad. Or it's just the new precedent, though I can't say for sure.

personally I only want byleth to come back if they have a moveset more in line with their character. I mean that’s one character who certainly didn’t get in cause of their own merits cause they didn’t bring them with them

 

[Quillion]

personally I only want byleth to come back if they have a moveset more in line with their character. I mean that’s one character who certainly didn’t get in cause of their own merits cause they didn’t bring them with them

If you mean by "merit" being a whip character, Simon already claimed that wheelhouse, so I guess Byleth had to stand out from the former some way.

In those cases I'd advocate for cuts, but ideally we end up only adding characters who stand the test of time.

Standing the test of time is difficult at best either way though. For "fixed cast" franchises like Mario, the main four of Mario, Luigi, Peach, and Bowser fills all the vital roles and leaves more "game specific" characters like Rosalina and Cappy an uphill battle to stand out. For "rotating cast" series like Xenoblade, it's harder since no one sticks around.

 

[Geno Boost]

That pretty much applies to almost every character that came from the 80s and 90s, though. Look at Ryu and Ken. Many of their animations and sound effects are also tied from their old school appearances, specifically their SFII appearances. It's just a nice little nostalgic touch added from the most popular games from the characters' series. It doesn't really make them retro characters. Ice Climbers, Duck Hunt, and Mr. Game & Watch are the only true retro characters in the roster right now, as they have no modern appearances and are taken from the decade that they originated from.

I agree that’s how I view retro reps they are only due to the fact they were not revived until smash and comes from dead franchises
Also during brawl does count as well
so I don’t think there is any smash ultimate newcomer that is a true retro rep

 

[LiveStudioAudience]

There is something almost sad that once a Nintendo series has gone over a decade and half without a game, it then qualifies as potentially having a novelty retro rep fighter for Smash.






Silver lining? Maybe that's how Isaac gets in.

 

[SPEN18]

Standing the test of time is difficult at best either way though. For "fixed cast" franchises like Mario, the main four of Mario, Luigi, Peach, and Bowser fills all the vital roles and leaves more "game specific" characters like Rosalina and Cappy an uphill battle to stand out. For "rotating cast" series like Xenoblade, it's harder since no one sticks around.

But there are some that do. What's wrong with it being difficult? Being a playable character in Smash puts you in a rightly exclusive club. The difficulty bar is raised or lowered accordingly anyway based on how many roster spots there are, how big the series is, etc.

 

[Troykv]

I find fascinating that a lot of characters have old schools aspects in their designs (like the fact that Megaman is closer to his sprite than to any official design of Rock as far as I remember), to the point we ended up getting a character that was chose precisely and EXCLUSIVELY for being old school.

Ice Climber is the kind of character that only a game dev making weird choices just for the sake of it could make. If Sakurai didn't made Melee, that is the character that for sure could have never existed in a Smash Sequel.

 

[Quillion]

But there are some that do. What's wrong with it being difficult? Being a playable character in Smash puts you in a rightly exclusive club. The difficulty bar is raised or lowered accordingly anyway based on how many roster spots there are, how big the series is, etc.

Honestly, I just think there isn't much room for new faces to "stand the test of time", especially in the longer-running franchises where the vital roles are already filled.

And still, there's this attitude that people buy Smash for the "characters they already like the most" which by default excludes the new faces. If we really need characters that stand the test of time, "waiting and seeing" would be the ideal approach here.

 

[SPEN18]

Honestly, I just think there isn't much room for new faces to "stand the test of time", especially in the longer-running franchises where the vital roles are already filled.

And still, there's this attitude that people buy Smash for the "characters they already like the most" which by default excludes the new faces. If we really need characters that stand the test of time, "waiting and seeing" would be the ideal approach here.

When I say "stand the test of time," I don't necessarily mean "continue to appear in games." It's more about maintaining a strong legacy long after their debut game. Continuing to appear in games can be a part of establishing a legacy but I don't think it is strictly necessary. You're right that it is harder without being recurring but IMO some one-offs have done it to the extent that I'd feel quite comfortable putting them in Smash. If a game is considered to be one of the best on its respective console, then it's probably worth at least looking into potential characters that could be drawn from it. Having suboptimal timing relative to Smash's release cycle shouldn't have as big of an impact as it has had (not to mention the fact that several 90s and 2000s decade characters also suffered from naturally smaller rosters in the earlier Smash installments).

 

[Quillion]

When I say "stand the test of time," I don't necessarily mean "continue to appear in games." It's more about maintaining a strong legacy long after their debut game. Continuing to appear in games can be a part of establishing a legacy but I don't think it is strictly necessary. You're right that it is harder without being recurring but IMO some one-offs have done it to the extent that I'd feel quite comfortable putting them in Smash. If a game is considered to be one of the best on its respective console, then it's probably worth at least looking into potential characters that could be drawn from it.

Sure, but at least continuing to appear in games is a more numerical and objective measure of establishing a legacy, even if it shouldn't be the only one.

Using audience reception as a measure is problematic at best because biases, shortsightedness, and looking at or ignoring different echo chambers can get in the way. I'd honestly put marketing prominence over audience reception as a measure of legacy, then recurrent appearances above the former two.

Come to think of it, Smash would probably be a lot better as a promotional tool if its release timing was more mid-late into the life of a console instead of early-mid. The former approach would promote characters that are already on the same console as that Smash, while the latter approach tends to focus on franchises on the previous console.

 

[SPEN18]

Sure, but at least continuing to appear in games is a more numerical and objective measure of establishing a legacy, even if it shouldn't be the only one.

Using audience reception as a measure is problematic at best because biases, shortsightedness, and looking at or ignoring different echo chambers can get in the way. I'd honestly put marketing prominence over audience reception as a measure of legacy, then recurrent appearances above the former two.

I mean, I did admit that it is better to appear in more games. It's not like a character shouldn't get credit for all of their appearances.

Audience reception, while not perfectly measurable, can be objectively quantified in several (imperfect, but still useful) ways. One can look at sales performance, aggregate review scores, and appearances on lists of top games (either all-time or within a particular genre or console era) published by major/reputable media outlets. If we move into more subjective variables, one can attempt to situate a game within the historical development of its series and/or genre; innovations and advances also tie into the critic reception and such as well. For the particular character (in the case that there are many possible candidates to represent the same game), one can look at performance in popularity polls or simply evaluate as best as possible their plot/gameplay importance. Of course, none of these particular factors are end-all-be-alls but they all contribute to a wholistic evaluation of legacy.

I don't see why audience reception would be too subjective but marketing prominence wouldn't. But that isn't to say that marketing prominence isn't significantly useful also. I would maintain that both should be serious considerations.

In terms of being recurring being more or less important than reception and marketing, I don't know if I'd put the three in a definitive order. Characters have different strengths and different bases for merit, and all of those should be considered.

 

[AlRex]

The problems with Pokémon and Fire Emblem's roster picks is that it eventually feels like it's going to topple over into ludicrous amounts (many say they're there already), and they always pick the most basic choices, it seems. If Fire Emblem was consolidating into, like, sword, axe/heavy sword, staff, magic, in terms of both aspects, it'd be a tad more interesting and feel less bloated. Hot take, Fire Emblem has too many characters, and a lot of them play similarly. I know, I know... Pokémon I also feel is slightly held back by the "Everyone Is Here" thing, and having to just include starters as new picks and keep Jigglypuff and Pichu around and things like that, though at least it seems to have more variation. These are part of the reasons why new picks from them don't feel like they'll be exciting, and why I'd rather they hold off on it for a bit and even focus more on adding new series.

Xenoblade...it's relatively new, they'd probably be jumping the gun to automatically give it a new one every entry, but there's basically two characters now, so it doesn't seem as egregious, and I can't even say that they're automatically guaranteed. For all we know, it'll go the way of StarFox or F-Zero by the next Smash.

In general, I'm more interested in variety and adding new things, not just going with things we basically already have. I feel a bit like this about Smash as a whole. It seems like this is a point that will get people agitated at you, though.

 

[DarthEnderX]

Hmm, have you considered that Noah has a SWORD INSIDE THE SWORD?
This makes him out first SWORD SQUARED character

Except Pyra/Mythra is a sword wielding a sword inside a sword wielding a sword.

Admittedly, I have a bit of a bias toward retro characters but I’m perfectly fine getting a mix of both old and new characters as we continue to expand the roster.

No new! Only retro!

 

[Geno Boost]

Hot take: smash needs more playable robots

 

[fogbadge]

If you mean by "merit" being a whip character, Simon already claimed that wheelhouse, so I guess Byleth had to stand out from the former some way.

well no i meant his unique class which uses the whip blade and the large pool of spells. they didn't need to make things up to make him stand out

 

[Perkilator]

Hot take: smash needs more playable robots

Even better; someone who makes robots, who can control robots.

 

[chocolatejr9]

I finally found it: the perfect Gen 9 rep...

Spoiler: Just revealed

 

[fogbadge]

I finally found it: the perfect Gen 9 rep...

Spoiler: Just revealed

really this guy?