Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

[Diddy Kong]

i would guess its cause so many people still put stock in things like popularity and a series influence. even though youd think terry and bayo would kinds disprove that

Not sure if they do. I think Terry especially was there to please the more silenced type of Smash fans, as he's fastly more popular in South America I understood. Bayonetta is simply because Nintendo wanted her in, mainly due to getting exclusive rights I feel , and to promote the game on Wii U back in the days.

 

[fogbadge]

Not sure if they do. I think Terry especially was there to please the more silenced type of Smash fans, as he's fastly more popular in South America I understood. Bayonetta is simply because Nintendo wanted her in, mainly due to getting exclusive rights I feel , and to promote the game on Wii U back in the days.

nah it’s cause sakurai fancied her

 

[Verde Coeden Scalesworth]

The thing with Cloud and Joker is that although the content that came along with them is mostly from the specific titles they’re from, they still represent the Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei franchises as a whole, both of which have their roots tied to Nintendo. They were chosen as representatives because of fan demand, alongside relevancy and popularity. Whenever Final Fantasy is brought up, most people would think of FF7, while SMT has been eclipsed in popularity by the Persona spin-off series, and P5 is the most recent title and extremely well received.

Not sure about Vault Boy and Bethesda’s ties with Nintendo that much though tbh.

Joker is from Persona 5 and Persona Q. Of which the latter game is pretty much nonexistent in Smash. SMT is completely nonexistent in Smash too. Persona and SMT are also separate series according to Atlus, but both are part of the MegaTen franchise. It's like how Donkey Kong is blatantly separate from Mario, but they still are connected. To give an example, imagine if Wario got in, with his WarioWare stuff, but there was zero actual Mario, Donkey Kong, or Yoshi content. Not even Captain Syrup(which Wario Land is part of Super Mario Land overall), which is loosely connected to regular Mario technically. That's pretty much what Joker is. He's from the MegaTen franchise overall, but specifically represents the Persona series part of it(and mostly is there for Persona 5). He isn't based upon his 3DS game, but his PlayStation game, and the rest of the content is from the various Persona mainline games.

So no, it didn't get in cause of some Nintendo history. It's more like Atlus having a long history with Nintendo as a company also would help make it easier to negotiate, but that's as close as you can realistically get. It wouldn't matter what Atlus games either. Persona Q being released before Smash isn't really relevant so much as they already were working with Nintendo to release games. If it had come out well after Joker did in Smash, it'd be... the same thing. It may have had slight influence on why Sakurai said yes. Assuming he was told about the game(considering Persona Q is ignored entirely... it's pretty unlikely). So the Nintendo history and/or connection is not actually there for Joker or Persona specifically. This is why people expect SMT to get one before Persona due to having Nintendo connections. Which clearly wasn't as relevant as we once believed.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Probably because the last time they tried something like that, we got the CD-I games. Some wounds just don't heal...

I don't think Epic Games is looking to make Nintendo games on other consoles, though.

 

[Yamat08]

Concerning Master Chief, I'm not a fan of Halo, but I will say that he actually looks possible by this point. I mean, before Banjo&Kazooie got in, I would've immediately assumed that he was a no-go and all these fanboys clammoring for him need to shut up. But now? Microsoft did a huge favor for Nintendo by letting them use B&K, and later Steve. Still not a shoe-in (and really, this whole idea of characters being a "lock", sans maybe a credible leak like Terry, needs to die), but it woudn't surprise me if they promoted their main mascot to return the favor.

 

[SPEN18]

I haven't been able to respond to this thread as much as I would have liked the last couple of days, but here are some notes on a few recent points of discussion:

On FE and Kirby:
Fire Emblem and Kirby are fairly comparable at this point. Around 5 unique reps for each sounds about right IMO. For Kirby the options are not shallow with big picks like Marx and Magolor still on the table along with a couple of others depending on your tastes (when I get the time I am going to take a long look at Forgotten Land and see if/how it changes my thoughts on Dee). And FE has a ton of characters to pick from even if you restrict to just protagonists, but it's just a matter of finding the right ones to adequately represent the series' long history without hogging too much roster space from equally deserving franchises.

On number of reps being based on franchise size, more generally:
While there has to be a candidate strong enough to get in for reasons other than just satisfying a quota, I am okay with lowering the bar for some of the bigger series that deserve more. Like for Zelda: one-offs are more acceptable IMO when they come from flagship games in a flagship franchise. Even though I don't play Animal Crossing, I'd be okay with someone like Resetti even though he's not a protagonist-type. I do still like smaller series being represented so I don't want them to go too overboard, but in general it feels a little wrong for certain series to become underrepresented relative to others.
So the franchise size affects how high you raise the bar for inclusion but characters still need to clear that bar, wherever it is, if that makes sense. Many people think like this, even unconsciously: if you value a particular franchise then you are more likely to want more reps for it and are more willing to accept non-recurring or non-protag characters from it.

On Zoroark:
I think this is the pick from gen 5 if gen 5 ever gets one; it's just that gen 5 was put in such a weird situation by trying to be a soft-reboot in the middle of a console generation (following DPPt on the DS), and then having that get 180'd by gen 6's oldgen nostalgia fever (see: Kanto starters and Mega Evolutions). If people are interested I can break down the gen 5 candidates in more detail (they're all pretty unlikely, but it's a fun exercise regardless).

Gengar84 stay well and don't let the speculation get too much into your head. Things can get intense when everybody is advocating for what they'd like to see from Smash but it's important to have fun with it. My suggestion is to do your best to be realistic and consider people's comments seriously when they argue against you, but not let it ruin the fun of speculating on your favorite characters, advertising their merits, and messing around with unlikely scenarios in which they could get in (but again, try to acknowledge the unlikelihood lest you get shelled by naysayers). In supporting a lot of less popular picks for Smash myself, I think in general it is effective to argue why your picks should get in more than you try to convince people that they actually will get in, but that's just my take.

RodNutTakin
Hopefully this response isn't moot now since it's been so long, but:
For Impa, I would expect the Ocarina of Time design to be more likely than something from spinoffs like the Warriors design, but they might also give her a hybrid, modernized design if she gets in.
And yeah I agree that something from Legends Arceus is much less likely than something from the newest main series games, but if they were gonna put in a Sinnoh mon it would make more sense now than it has in a while, which I think was what I mostly meant.
I'm not as avid a speculator on third parties, but since you asked, I'll comment on those in your updated roster. Bomberman is definitely possible but I think he's mostly riding on pure demand. Arle and Zero I think are less likely than other characters from their companies like another Sonic rep or reps from Monster Hunter or RE, but not total left-field picks. Arle's chances in particular basically rest on Japanese ballot support in my estimation. Namco DLC is likely. Hayabusa and Eggman could also be candidates for base game as retro-era 3P reps, and both have realistic chances. Iori and Crono I think are reaches but I'm guessing you're adding them as "dark horse" candidates.

 

[Digital Hazard]

Not sure if they do. I think Terry especially was there to please the more silenced type of Smash fans, as he's fastly more popular in South America I understood.

Latin America as a whole, really. I'm from Central America, when I was a kid, many places had both official and pirated SNK and Capcom arcade games everywhere.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

Latin America as a whole, really. I'm from Central America, when I was a kid, many places had both official and pirated SNK and Capcom arcade games everywhere.

I'm from the carribean and i saw the same effect.

 

[Digital Hazard]

Fire Emblem and Kirby are fairly comparable at this point

Quick PSA to everyone: Proportional representation will never exist, and the definition of that anyway is very loose anyway.

Yeah, I get people are stale with FE at this point, it's fine you do, I even agree Byleth is the most disappointing FP1 inclusion, but if representation was "proportional" and we define that by sales. Earthbound would get as much as Ice Climbers and Animal Crossing would get six fighters.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I hope that now that Super Robot Wars 30 has been completed Bamco continues to release this series outside of Asian markets so i can throw something from this series into Smash speculation.

It's a franchise i think would fit in Smash in someway given it's large history in Japan but only in recent years did it start getting localized.

 

[fogbadge]

Concerning Master Chief, I'm not a fan of Halo, but I will say that he actually looks possible by this point. I mean, before Banjo&Kazooie got in, I would've immediately assumed that he was a no-go and all these fanboys clammoring for him need to shut up. But now? Microsoft did a huge favor for Nintendo by letting them use B&K, and later Steve. Still not a shoe-in (and really, this whole idea of characters being a "lock", sans maybe a credible leak like Terry, needs to die), but it woudn't surprise me if they promoted their main mascot to return the favor.

favour? im fairly certain microsoft got a ton of money for letting them use their characters, thats not a favour

 

[Dinoman96]

i would guess its cause so many people still put stock in things like popularity and a series influence. even though youd think terry and bayo would kinds disprove that

Bayonetta? You mean the Bayonetta that got in because of popularity?

 

[fogbadge]

Bayonetta? You mean the Bayonetta that got in because of popularity?

what popularity?

 

[Dinoman96]

what popularity?

They literally said she got in because she was, at the time, the most popular realizable character on the ballot lol

 

[Lionfranky]

I hope that now that Super Robot Wars 30 has been completed Bamco continues to release this series outside of Asian markets so i can throw something from this series into Smash speculation.

It's a franchise i think would fit in Smash in someway given it's large history in Japan but only in recent years did it start getting localized.

I guess original mech can count as video game characters without licensing issue.

 

[fogbadge]

They literally said she got in because she was, at the time, the most popular realizable character on the ballot lol

and the fact that popularity wasn’t reflected in the fandom along with claims from data miners that she was planned from before the ballot doesn’t make you wonder what sakurai was on about?

 

[Megadoomer]

what popularity?

The character was specifically included for being the most popular character from the Smash Ballot that they could actually get at the time (seems safe to say that Disney and Microsoft weren't playing ball), with her popularity in Norh America and Europe (without any qualifiers like the worldwide rankings - there weren't any "among realizable characters" notes when saying she was top 5 in North America or number 1 in Europe) being noted.

If you don't think that she actually did well, that's on you (I've seen people act like it's all an elaborate conspiracy, because there's no way that a franchise that they've never played could actually be popular - we also see that with Dragon Quest, Fatal Fury/King of Fighters, Fire Emblem, etc.), but we don't have any data to go on for the Smash Ballot beyond that, Sora being the highest ranked character overall, and characters like Banjo-Kazooie, Ridley, K. Rool, Castlevania characters, Dark Samus, and Chrom doing well. (Veterans doing well on the Smash Ballot seemed to be implied given "Everyone is Here", but I can't recall if that's ever been stated)

Getting a major Nintendo exclusive around the time that Smash 3DS launched probably helped in her case, but even if the Smash Ballot results were something like...

1. Sora
2. Banjo-Kazooie
3. Snake
4. Ice Climbers
5. Ridley
6. Waluigi
7. Bayonetta
8. K. Rool
9. Dixie Kong
10. Simon Belmont

...then Bayonetta would still be the highest realizable character, considering that Disney, Microsoft, and Konami weren't cooperative, the Ice Climbers couldn't work on the 3DS, and they seem set in their ways of not making characters be playable when they're already assist trophies or active stage hazards. (There's presumably a reason why Pyrosphere is one of the few stages that didn't return for Ultimate - it doesn't seem like it would have development difficulties like Orbital Gate Assault or Pac-Maze, but Ridley (or rather a clone of Ridley) being a prominent stage hazard seems to be why it was cut)

 

[fogbadge]

The character was specifically included for being the most popular character from the Smash Ballot that they could actually get at the time (seems safe to say that Disney and Microsoft weren't playing ball), with her popularity in Norh America and Europe (without any qualifiers like the worldwide rankings - there weren't any "among realizable characters" notes when saying she was top 5 in North America or number 1 in Europe) being noted.

If you don't think that she actually did well, that's on you (I've seen people act like it's all an elaborate conspiracy, because there's no way that a franchise that they've never played could actually be popular), but we don't have any data to go on for the Smash Ballot beyond that, Sora being the highest ranked character overall, and characters like Banjo-Kazooie, Ridley, K. Rool, the Belmonts, Dark Samus, and Chrom doing well.

Getting a major Nintendo exclusive around the time that Smash 3DS launched probably helped in her case, but even if the Smash Ballot results were something like...

1. Sora
2. Banjo-Kazooie
3. Ice Climbers
4. Snake
5. Ridley
6. Waluigi
7. Bayonetta
8. K. Rool
9. Dixie Kong
10. Simon Belmont

...then Bayonetta would still be the highest realizable character, considering that Disney, Microsoft, and Konami weren't cooperative, the Ice Climbers couldn't work on the 3DS, and they seem set in their ways of not making characters be playable when they're already assist trophies or active stage hazards. (There's presumably a reason why Pyrosphere is one of the few stages that didn't return for Ultimate)

well we do have data. We have places like this forum and the like where people list the characters they want and other such things like sales charts from before hand. I don’t think she was popular cause she barely came up in smash speculation and unlike other characters such as joker who had clear popularity outside of smash even if he wasn’t a popular pick for smash she didn’t have. I don’t think she was popular cause it doesn’t ring true for either the smash community or the gaming community from what was going on at the time.

 

[Hadokeyblade]

I guess original mech can count as video game characters without licensing issue.

Yeah that's what i was thinking, put in one of the mech's owned by one of the series original characters:

Cybuster or Gespents could probably work, since the characters who pilot them are kinda like Sora. People who travel the multiverse and trouble just finds them

 

[Megadoomer]

well we do have data. We have places like this forum and the like where people list the characters they want and other such things like sales charts from before hand. I don’t think she was popular cause she barely came up in smash speculation and unlike other characters such as joker who had clear popularity outside of smash even if he wasn’t a popular pick for smash she didn’t have. I don’t think she was popular cause it doesn’t ring true for either the smash community or the gaming community from what was going on at the time.

Forums like this seem like a really small sample size (relative to the amount of people who buy Smash, at least), and people tend to mix up popularity and likelihood. (Supporting characters because they seem more likely, for example, or acting like characters are shoo-ins because they're popular on this forum)

Plus, sometimes people don't speak up - I supported Bayonetta in the Smash Ballot era (I was hoping that she'd make it into a future Smash game, at least), but I didn't talk about it much because I knew from experience that whenever I did bring her up, my posts would get nit-picked into oblivion, and I'd get told by a bunch of people that she stands no chance of being included, and that they wouldn't add M-rated characters into Smash (any time Snake was brought up, he'd be dismissed as a one-time guest character who'd never come back because "he didn't fit"), or that it was impossible to tone her down. Admittedly, I'm basing this on my own experiences here, but I doubt I'm the only one who dealt with this, considering that many of these points are still brought up today. (As we saw a few pages back with Doomguy)

I know there was support for her in the Smash 4 era (or at least thinking that she was likely due to her having a high-profile exclusive coming out around the same time) - it may not have been especially vocal (you probably wouldn't have seen her included as number 1 on anyone's top 10 list for most likely Smash 4 characters unless they wanted to stir up controversy), but it was there, and I can try to find videos if needed.

 

[SPEN18]

Quick PSA to everyone: Proportional representation will never exist, and the definition of that anyway is very loose anyway.

Yeah, I get people are stale with FE at this point, it's fine you do, I even agree Byleth is the most disappointing FP1 inclusion, but if representation was "proportional" and we define that by sales. Earthbound would get as much as Ice Climbers and Animal Crossing would get six fighters.

"Proportional representation" does exist to some extent, though. Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda have way more reps than most franchises. FE has a lot but as most have noted it's kind of an outlier. Animal Crossing can be a funky series to represent in certain ways but besides that it didn't get anything until 4, which explains a lower-than-expected number of reps based on size. And Earthbound has gotten a little show of favoritism but two reps is not a massive discrepancy. It's not going to be perfect and there are many oddities to consider, but it's one of the things that stands in the way of total randomness on the roster.
In terms of defining it less subjectively, I think you just have to consider some combination of public recognizability, critical acclaim, and yes, sales (on the back of which characters like Wii Fit Trainer likely got in). Some games have specific historical importance or "cult classic" status that could help them as well (this feeds into recognizability, albeit within a more specified sphere). All these things do and should get considered. As I said above there is also a matter of having iconic characters to choose from, which you could argue applies to Animal Crossing to some extent (as most of the characters are minor, although I do still think there are a few good choices for reps).
Besides all this, demand is often driven by wanting more reps from certain franchises like Metroid, DK, or Kirby; this was actually a huge fuel for picks like Ridley, K. Rool, and Bandana Dee when they were developing Smash popularity. I am surprised there is not more demand for picks like Tom Nook, however.

Edit: also, I've been an avid FE player and don't mind Byleth at all. It's just trying to be as objective as possible.

 

[fogbadge]

Forums like this seem like a really small sample size (relative to the amount of people who buy Smash, at least), and people tend to mix up popularity and likelihood. (Supporting characters because they seem more likely, for example, or acting like characters are shoo-ins because they're popular on this forum)

Plus, sometimes people don't speak up - I supported Bayonetta in the Smash Ballot era (I was hoping that she'd make it into a future Smash game, at least), but I didn't talk about it much because I knew from experience that whenever I did bring her up, my posts would get nit-picked into oblivion, and I'd get told by a bunch of people that she stands no chance of being included, and that they wouldn't add M-rated characters into Smash (any time Snake was brought up, he'd be dismissed as a one-time guest character who'd never come back because "he didn't fit"), or that it was impossible to tone her down. Admittedly, I'm basing this on my own experiences here, but I doubt I'm the only one who dealt with this, considering that many of these points are still brought up today.

I know there was support for her in the Smash 4 era (or at least thinking that she was likely due to her having a high-profile exclusive coming out around the same time) - it may not have been especially vocal (you probably wouldn't have seen her included as number 1 on anyone's top 10 list for most likely Smash 4 characters unless they wanted to stir up controversy), but it was there, and I can try to find videos if needed.

im not saying she didnt have any support, im saying i dont believe she was more popular than a bunch of other characters like k.rool who would have been perfectly realizable. and i agree that those points those people used to try and exclude her dont hold up even slightly, although it does show you how varied the fandom really is with many fans saying things like that while there are others are saying things like include a tetris block cause there are no rules

 

[Perkilator]

1. Sora
2. Banjo-Kazooie
3. Snake
4. Ice Climbers
5. Ridley
6. Waluigi
7. Bayonetta
8. K. Rool
9. Dixie Kong
10. Simon Belmont

So by process of elimination, that boils the realizable choices down to:

1. Bayonetta
2. K. Rool
3. Dixie Kong

Which still puts Bayonetta at #1

 

[Lenidem]

So by process of elimination, that boils the realizable choices down to:

1. Bayonetta
2. K. Rool
3. Dixie Kong

Which still puts Bayonetta at #1

I think that's exactly what Megadoomer wanted to explain.

 

[Megadoomer]

So by process of elimination, that boils the realizable choices down to:

1. Bayonetta
2. K. Rool
3. Dixie Kong

Which still puts Bayonetta at #1

Like Lenidem said, that was my point. (Though the list was purely a guess on my part - I could see that we got a situation where K. Rool and Dixie were both popular picks from the same franchise so they split the vote between them, though I have no way to know for sure)

 

[osby]

Fire Emblem cuts, "Nintendo-enough" talk, Bayonetta conspiracies...

All we need now are arguments about the best indie rep and it can be like 2014 never left.

 

[Dinoman96]

The character was specifically included for being the most popular character from the Smash Ballot that they could actually get at the time (seems safe to say that Disney and Microsoft weren't playing ball), with her popularity in Norh America and Europe (without any qualifiers like the worldwide rankings - there weren't any "among realizable characters" notes when saying she was top 5 in North America or number 1 in Europe) being noted.

If you don't think that she actually did well, that's on you (I've seen people act like it's all an elaborate conspiracy, because there's no way that a franchise that they've never played could actually be popular - we also see that with Dragon Quest, Fatal Fury/King of Fighters, Fire Emblem, etc.), but we don't have any data to go on for the Smash Ballot beyond that, Sora being the highest ranked character overall, and characters like Banjo-Kazooie, Ridley, K. Rool, Castlevania characters, Dark Samus, and Chrom doing well. (Veterans doing well on the Smash Ballot seemed to be implied given "Everyone is Here", but I can't recall if that's ever been stated)

Getting a major Nintendo exclusive around the time that Smash 3DS launched probably helped in her case, but even if the Smash Ballot results were something like...

1. Sora
2. Banjo-Kazooie
3. Snake
4. Ice Climbers
5. Ridley
6. Waluigi
7. Bayonetta
8. K. Rool
9. Dixie Kong
10. Simon Belmont

...then Bayonetta would still be the highest realizable character, considering that Disney, Microsoft, and Konami weren't cooperative, the Ice Climbers couldn't work on the 3DS, and they seem set in their ways of not making characters be playable when they're already assist trophies or active stage hazards. (There's presumably a reason why Pyrosphere is one of the few stages that didn't return for Ultimate - it doesn't seem like it would have development difficulties like Orbital Gate Assault or Pac-Maze, but Ridley (or rather a clone of Ridley) being a prominent stage hazard seems to be why it was cut)

tbh I don't think Waluigi was actually that high, especially not over the characters that, you know, actually made it in the game, like Bayo and K. Rool.

His support really didn't kick off into overdrive until he was deconfirmed as an AT when Ultimate was first fully revealed. I feel like if he actually were in the top 10 results of the ballot, they would of made him playable in Ultimate. I'd say swap him out with Wolf, considering he was the most popular veteran request besides ICs and Snake.

 

[Ivander]

All we need now are arguments about the best indie rep and it can be like 2014 never left.

Next Smash speculation regarding Indies will be very interesting to see. Especially if any known indie developers are doing things with Nintendo during then, whether it'd be if Wayforward is still working with Nintendo after Advance Wars, if Toby Fox does some more work with Nintendo and Game Freak, etc.

 

[Digital Hazard]

"Proportional representation" does exist to some extent, though. Mario, Pokemon, and Zelda have way more reps than most franchises. FE has a lot but as most have noted it's kind of an outlier. Animal Crossing can be a funky series to represent in certain ways but besides that it didn't get anything until 4, which explains a lower-than-expected number of reps based on size. And Earthbound has gotten a little show of favoritism but two reps is not a massive discrepancy. It's not going to be perfect and there are many oddities to consider, but it's one of the things that stands in the way of total randomness on the roster.
In terms of defining it less subjectively, I think you just have to consider some combination of public recognizability, critical acclaim, and yes, sales (on the back of which characters like Wii Fit Trainer likely got in). Some games have specific historical importance or "cult classic" status that could help them as well (this feeds into recognizability, albeit within a more specified sphere). All these things do and should get considered. As I said above there is also a matter of having iconic characters to choose from, which you could argue applies to Animal Crossing to some extent (as most of the characters are minor, although I do still think there are a few good choices for reps).
Besides all this, demand is often driven by wanting more reps from certain franchises like Metroid, DK, or Kirby; this was actually a huge fuel for picks like Ridley, K. Rool, and Bandana Dee when they were developing Smash popularity. I am surprised there is not more demand for picks like Tom Nook, however.

Edit: also, I've been an avid FE player and don't mind Byleth at all. It's just trying to be as objective as possible.

To some, not all. Frankly, two fighters for a series that sold just a little over million by the time of their inclusion throws a huge wrench to "proportional" when compared to a lot of other franchises, same for Kid Icarus with the amount of content it has, three fighters, three stages and more because of the dev.

Not to mention when we get to each franchise specifically we also get to the way they handle characters. Yes, I know some are tired of the whole rotational casts argument, but here's the thing: Despite all of us wanting to think Smash is solely a passion project, it is in fact also a huge commercial. Was Isabelle's inclusion driven by New Horizons's development? Of course not, people adore Isabelle, but they still took advantage of her trailer to announce New Horizons right after.

And Nintendo were the ones who pushed Byleth's inclusion, at a time when it was unknown wether TH would sell or not. Whereas just including the new look and some content for Zelda's protagonist seems to be enough for them, they don't think of anything being "deserving", they think "whatever's convenient for us". And while the devs are much more lenient to comply to fan demand, they still have that mindset to some extent, it took years and years of fan cry for K. Rool and Ridley to be included, and this comes from someone who thinks K. Rool is one of the best newcomers in the whole game. And there's also priorities of the inclusions of new series besides those and other stuff.

I would adore to see Magolor or Ganon (not Ganondorf, I mean the blue boar) included, and we may likely see a new Kirby and Zelda fighter in the future depending on the priorities, I hope for it. But "proportional" is something we should never expect.

And also frankly, "proportional" representation will always be a boring limiter imo.

 

[SPEN18]

To some, not all. Frankly, two fighters for a series that sold just a little over million by the time of their inclusion throws a huge wrench to "proportional" when compared to a lot of other franchises, same for Kid Icarus with the amount of content it has, three fighters, three stages and more because of the dev.

Those are still two isolated examples and it's not like they have like 4-5 characters. For the most part there is a pattern with bigger series getting more, and I think this is how it should be. There are some anomalies and favoritisms here and there; I certainly don't think the rep numbers for each franchise are ideal. But there is easily a discernible pattern.

For KI, the culprit was just clear favoritism and good timing in 4. That's basically it, and it doesn't throw the whole concept of fair franchise-to-franchise representation into chaos even if you don't view it as ideal. Ultimate failed to reevaluate whether 3 KI characters was a good idea by doing EiH, but going forward I would expect at least Dark Pit to be low priority, even though being an Echo still gives him a good chance to come back.
On EB: Lucas was even cut in 4 at base, and probably only got into Brawl on the back of good timing and a little favoritism. He is likely to receive fairly low priority in the next game as well. Also remember that Itoi's relationship with the Nintendo higher ups is another big reason for the favoritism, and that Mother 2 and 3 have both managed to achieve "cult classic" status (even if this is partly due to Smash).

Don't think that I consider everything to be as it should be; in fact, things are pretty far from ideal IMO. But I don't want people to just give up on fair and balanced series representation just because Sakurai and Nintendo haven't done a perfect job of it to this point. It's not going to be perfect and there's going to be some circumstance and subjectivity involved, but I still think the goal is worth striving for.

And Nintendo were the ones who pushed Byleth's inclusion, at a time when it was unknown wether TH would sell or not. Whereas just including the new look and some content for Zelda's protagonist seems to be enough for them, they don't think of anything being "deserving", they think "whatever's convenient for us". And while the devs are much more lenient to comply to fan demand, they still have that mindset to some extent, it took years and years of fan cry for K. Rool and Ridley to be included, and this comes from someone who thinks K. Rool is one of the best newcomers in the whole game. And there's also priorities of the inclusions of new series besides those and other stuff.

Here you make a good point that they definitely have other priorities besides "proportional representation." Yes, at the end of the day they are going to do whatever is convenient for them within the circumstance, even if I don't always like it. I'm just arguing that there is still a general pattern with bigger series affording more roster space, particularly when they plan out the base game roster. And the inherent desire for this balance is likely to continue to drive demand for "underrepresented franchises," even if considerations like cloneability and recency bias continue to have undesirable effects on the roster balance.

Again, I don't want people to give up entirely on the idea of wholly and fairly representing the Nintendo history just because there is a mix of other considerations (like the commercial nature of Smash) which prevent these things from being as well-off as they could be.
Not that the commercial nature is entirely to blame; in many cases it actually supports the idea of giving more representation to the series that have contributed most to Nintendo's success, even if in other cases it fuels shameless promotion.

 

[Wonder Smash]

Concerning Master Chief, I'm not a fan of Halo, but I will say that he actually looks possible by this point. I mean, before Banjo&Kazooie got in, I would've immediately assumed that he was a no-go and all these fanboys clammoring for him need to shut up. But now? Microsoft did a huge favor for Nintendo by letting them use B&K, and later Steve. Still not a shoe-in (and really, this whole idea of characters being a "lock", sans maybe a credible leak like Terry, needs to die), but it woudn't surprise me if they promoted their main mascot to return the favor.

Not without any appearances on Nintendo consoles, otherwise, they likely would have added Master Chief in the game before them. I'm pretty sure there's a reason why their mascot literally has zero content in Smash so far.

 

[Perkilator]

Okay, time for a hypothetical scenario:

• Eggman is CP7, and Sephiroth is CP8
• The boss battle challenge arrives where you can fight both of them
• Beating them allows you to use them without buying their challenger packs

Thoughts?

 

[RodNutTakin]

I haven't been able to respond to this thread as much as I would have liked the last couple of days, but here are some notes on a few recent points of discussion:

Hopefully this response isn't moot now since it's been so long, but:
For Impa, I would expect the Ocarina of Time design to be more likely than something from spinoffs like the Warriors design, but they might also give her a hybrid, modernized design if she gets in.
And yeah I agree that something from Legends Arceus is much less likely than something from the newest main series games, but if they were gonna put in a Sinnoh mon it would make more sense now than it has in a while, which I think was what I mostly meant.
I'm not as avid a speculator on third parties, but since you asked, I'll comment on those in your updated roster. Bomberman is definitely possible but I think he's mostly riding on pure demand. Arle and Zero I think are less likely than other characters from their companies like another Sonic rep or reps from Monster Hunter or RE, but not total left-field picks. Arle's chances in particular basically rest on Japanese ballot support in my estimation. Namco DLC is likely. Hayabusa and Eggman could also be candidates for base game as retro-era 3P reps, and both have realistic chances. Iori and Crono I think are reaches but I'm guessing you're adding them as "dark horse" candidates.

Ah, I'm not too familiar with design differences since I assumed that HW Impa was just her Ocarina design through and through. I do agree about the possibility of a "hybrid" design for her, though alas, I'm no artist, so I can't really imagine how it'd look like exactly.

I get what you mean by a Sinnoh mon. I still think a Gen 9 or 10 mon will be TPC's desire whenever Smash 6's project plan is being worked out, but if Sakurai was able to assume total control here and pick a popular Pokemon choice instead of a "promotional" choice, I think Cynthia would work as a Pokemon Trainer system character, considering her popularity among the franchise's cast of human characters. The Hisui Pokemon Trainer could also possibly work in that regard, especially since it would give Sakurai a chance to revisit having Decidueye as a fighter (even if it isn't the normal Alolan version of it).

Yeah, Bomberman is mainly driven by his demand at this point, which is why I dropped him in base game where the picks are more likely to prioritize that kind of stuff. Though admittedly, besides demand, it's hard to think of Konami/Hudson properties that would take priority over Bomberman now, besides if they add Raiden or Alucard into the game as second characters for their series. Contra and Gradius are both options I've humored (and I'd be up for the latter), but the protagonists from those games would probably be rather difficult to implement a practical moveset, both being more projectile-heavy than even someone like Mega Man, to the point where neither of them have any real close combat options in their source games.

I think that in the end, both Arle and a second Sonic character will be added to the next Smash, though I will admit that it's rather hard for me to completely decide which one would be prioritized. On one hand, Sonic as a franchise hasn't gotten much proper growth in the last Smash installments, which indicates to me some sort of hesitation to give it attention, but on the other hand, Arle is definitely weighted towards Japanese demand, even if it's been five years since Puyo games started getting consistent localizations worldwide. It's hard to say which one would be focused on being added first, but I think it will ultimately hinge on who would be easier to develop. If the Sonic rep is someone like Knuckles or Shadow who could easily use Sonic's frame (and in the case of the former, already has some fighter-related code thanks to his Assist Trophy), then I could see them being base game and Arle being a DLC fighter. If it's Eggman, who I imagine would be a much more complex character to develop, I think he'll be in the DLC lineup instead.

I'm hard to budge when it comes to Zero, mainly since, like with Knuckles above, his Assist Trophy is also pretty fighter-like already, but just because he's the only Capcom character on my roster doesn't mean I'm ruling out other characters here. I feel that Dante, one of the MH monsters, or Phoenix Wright all have a fair shot as an extra DLC fighter (I only had room for 9 DLC newcomers on my image, compared to Ultimate having 11 DLC newcomers, 10 being planned from the start. If I had room for just one more slot, I'd probably put something Capcom-related there.)

I actually considered Hayabusa as a base game character, but considering the number of returning third-parties already in the roster, I feel that it'd be easier on the team to wait until DLC before trying to license content from Koei-Tecmo, just so it wouldn't add onto the base game workload of relicensing everything from the other companies as well. For comparison, I feel that the Belmonts got into Ultimate's base roster mainly because it was more or less a two-for-one deal with Konami, since Snake also came back after missing a game.

Yeah, Iori and Crono are definitely dark horses here, though I do have my reasons, the former being a character Sakurai has explicitly expressed his liking of when talking about SNK's games in the Terry presentation, and the latter hailing from a game that many consider to be a cult classic among JRPGs and probably the most popular of Square's smaller JRPG outings (since I doubt Dragon Quest will get a second character, and I especially doubt that FF7 will get a third character when I'm also predicting that Sephiroth will be packaged as veteran DLC again.) I think the dark horse description hits the nail on the head quite nicely, though; not many people pay attention to these characters, but the ones who do, have strong reasons to do so.

 

[Megadoomer]

tbh I don't think Waluigi was actually that high, especially not over the characters that, you know, actually made it in the game, like Bayo and K. Rool.

His support really didn't kick off into overdrive until he was deconfirmed as an AT when Ultimate was first fully revealed. I feel like if he actually were in the top 10 results of the ballot, they would of made him playable in Ultimate. I'd say swap him out with Wolf, considering he was the most popular veteran request besides ICs and Snake.

Maybe not, but I figure that at least one character was deemed not realizable because people voted for them despite the character being an assist trophy, and given that the response to "Everyone Is Here" seemed to be (among parts of the fandom) "then why isn't Waluigi playable?", I figured he'd be the most likely. (though I just picked characters who couldn't make it into the game for one reason or another; I have no idea what the actual results would be once you take out the meme picks like Home Depot, or ones like Goku that couldn't possibly make it in)

 

[Sucumbio]

Home Depot?! Haaa man I got into speculation way too late.

 

[chocolatejr9]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Say, what's that one team at Ubisoft responsible for the Mario + Rabbids games? While I HIGHLY doubt Nintendo would buy the whole company, I think that team at least would be a good fit...

Speaking of which, I wonder when we'll get another update on Sparks of Hope. Haven't heard a thing since E3.

 

[fogbadge]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Say, what's that one team at Ubisoft responsible for the Mario + Rabbids games? While I HIGHLY doubt Nintendo would buy the whole company, I think that team at least would be a good fit...

Speaking of which, I wonder when we'll get another update on Sparks of Hope. Haven't heard a thing since E3.

possibly the same reasons listed there for the buyout

 

[Chuderz]

Hey I wanted to update my Banjo revisions because I thought of a fun redesigned gimmick that I felt fitted much better than the my old "double aerial input" one that could be awesome in Banjo's hands and gave the player much more control. I also thought of a Dragon Kazooie gimmick.

My primary justification for giving Banjo more aerials is to give his "two that fight as one" philosophy Sakurai was operating under more defining traits and I feel it can be justified with Kazooie being a bird/dragon.

Dragon Kazooie Gimmick:
In the character select screen you can now press the Y button to shift between standard Breagull Kazooie and Dragon Kazooie and this will offer one slight gameplay change. Dragon Kazooie will shoot fire eggs where any blue eggs are used in the moveset (so just the Neutral-Special) and when Banjo holds Kazooie for Breagull blaster mode she becomes a walkable flamethrower similar to Bowser and Charizard's Neutral-Specials and just like those specials the flame diminishes the longer the player holds the Special input.

I think this can be justified with Pyra/Mythra working this way with both having completely different specials and Pokemon Trainer have completely separate characters and even echoes like Ryu and Ken having completely different moves.

Wonderwing system improvement:
You can now earn two more golden feathers for Banjo's wonderwing attack per stock! You just have to land two wonderwing attacks in a row! Any damage counts as a connection. If you miss (like using wonderwing purely as a recovery option for example) you get reset back to 0. You can do this twice per stock until it stops registering. When you earn the feather this jingle plays.

Jingle audio reference: https://youtu.be/yhwzqNicz34?t=82

Blue Egg Shot improvement:
Neutral-B needs to allow for double-quick consecutive egg shots before restarting the animation if you're to do it again. Doing this SLIGHTLY extends of attack animation of Neutral-B to afford time for the extra egg. Banjo fans know what I'm talking about. Where before Banjo starts holding Kazooie for the Breagull blaster. It's very similar functionality to a double jab input just with your special button instead. Basically Kazooie can quickly shoot two eggs out before the animation restarts is what I'm saying which is much more inline with how the attack functioned in their original games.

These will be fire eggs if the player chooses Dragon Kazooie.

Grenade Egg improvement:
Make the grenade egg last 1 second longer.

Alright now onto the new stuff for Banjo!

Clockwork Kazooie Egg Shield-Special input:
Shield-Special is Clockwork Kazooie eggs. Make it so that you have to hold the B button until the Clockwork egg is manufactured in the attack animation. This means you're very vulnerable (no shielding) while laying these eggs. If you let go of the B button before it's ready the Clockwork Kazooie egg will malfunction and not work. When it does work it functions EXACTLY as Bowser Jr.'s Down-Special. That means you can pick it up and throw it as well as let it cycle through its functionality phase. It's really just a reskinned version of that (Bowser Jr.'s) attack. The time it takes to get through the attack animation is about the same time it takes for Inkling's shield-B to go from empty to full ink storage.

New expanded aerial kit:
Banjo & Kazooie get twice as many aerial inputs furthering Sakurai's design philosophy of "two that fight as one" for them. All attack aerial directions will receive an extra attack option with more on the "second neutral air" detailed below. Another aspect of this design philosophy, that being "two that fight as one", is that if Banjo attacks for the current aerial then Kazooie will be given an aerial in the same direction and vice versa. So basically Banjo & Kazooie's tilt/smash-stick aerials will be wholly unique from their directional-jab (A) input aerials. I think this gimmick gives the player much more control over this concept than the double-input idea did.

UP-AIR:
The first directional-jab (A) Up-Air input will be Banjo doing an aerial horizontal or somersault kick very similar to Zero Suit Samus and Mario.

DOWN-AIR:
The new directional-jab (A) Down-Air input will be Banjo doing a double downward kick exactly like Piranha Plant, K.Rool and Dr. Mario's Down-Air. It will have a small spike sweetspot hitbox more similar to Plant and K. Rool.

BACK-AIR:
The new directional-jab (A) Back-Air will be Banjo performing a turnaround kick exactly like Sonic's Back-Air.

FORWARD-AIR:
The new directional-jab (A) Forward-Air will be Beak Bomb a classic move in their arsenal that makes its exclusion almost criminal. It launches the player forward (the with classic "Yup-Oh" voice line with an appropriate Kazooie voice clip finishing the attack) but not nearly as much as it does in the original game. It takes the player about as far forward as ROB's Back-Air's does only Banjo's area of attack (hitbox) is in the same direction as the trajectory traveled. This move will have a chunky amount of start-up and end lag though so it's highly punishable and using it as an alternate recovery option (as a means to save Wonderwing feathers) is not recommended when below the stage. Here's a visual reference for anybody interested in seeing it: https://youtu.be/IdZ6j-QCtDk?t=61

ZAIR:
Finally we can get around the seeming impossibility of using this control scheme to create a "second" Neutral Air by simply giving Banjo and Kazooie a ZAIR. Their ZAIR will be an aerial Pack Whack and again it's criminal that this move is missing. This move could be done in the air in their original game so I feel it's justified here. Banjo's grab will remain the same he just has an aerial-attack located on his grab input. Banjo spins his back-pack horizontally around himself once for a full revolution around. Here is a visual reference: https://youtu.be/Op8etWmdp3A?t=214

These aerials also dig deeper into the idea that well Kazooie is a bird so their aerials can be a little bit more in-depth like this.

Conclusion:
I really like Banjo's moveset in Smash but I feel (like many others) it could be much more. That's basically why I only suggested improvements and additions as opposed to getting rid of anything. I know his transformations are still the obvious missing element but I have another more theoretical idea on how to incorporate those moves that I won't get into on this post.

I've done a similar post for Sora changes I'd make!

Check it out!

Official - Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Those are still two isolated examples and it's not like they have like 4-5 characters. For the most part there is a pattern with bigger series getting more, and I think this is how it should be. There are some anomalies and favoritisms here and there; I certainly don't think the rep numbers...

smashboards.com

 

[PeridotGX]

There was a problem fetching the tweet

Say, what's that one team at Ubisoft responsible for the Mario + Rabbids games? While I HIGHLY doubt Nintendo would buy the whole company, I think that team at least would be a good fit...

Speaking of which, I wonder when we'll get another update on Sparks of Hope. Haven't heard a thing since E3.

For what it's worth, it looks like it isn't Microsoft or Sony that are looking to be buying. It seems like the interested parties are mostly just random French holding groups I haven't heard of. This probably won't change much.

 

[Ivander]

For what it's worth, it looks like it isn't Microsoft or Sony that are looking to be buying. It seems like the interested parties are mostly just random French holding groups I haven't heard of. This probably won't change much.

Hopefully, but I've heard not so good things about one of the groups wanting to buy them.