Smash has already gotten third party characters over more generally popular choices due to their connection with Nintendo. We did just get Banjo before Master Chief, Doom Slayer, and Crash and Banjo was never as big as any of them. Banjo was only as requested as he was due to his connection with Nintendo. You could make a similar argument with Mega Man. These days, Resident Evil and Monster Hunter are far more successful than Mega Man is but a lot of people wanted Mega Man because they closely tied him with Nintendo during the NES and SNES eras. Mega Man even got in before Ryu and Street Fighter dwarfs the Mega Man series in popularity. Simon from CastleVania is another popular character that I believe was largely requested due to his NES and SNES games. While he is fairly popular, there are many other characters with much more general popularity these days they could have chosen. I don’t see how my favorites are any different in that regard.
Yes, it's an
indirect factor, but none of your suggestions of characters with close relation to Nintendo have the critical thing the association leads to, the demand. You need the second part to actually capitalize off the inciting factor.
Basically, you need the ensuing popularity for the Nintendo association to mean anything. Otherwise it's just like a third-party getting a Switch port. Ultimately pretty meaningless unless it can be cultivated into significant demand.
I think you are underselling the popularity of the characters on my list. The Battletoads games are still known today for speed runs, the GameStop memes, the status of being the hardest NES game, their cameos in various games. The reboot was a million plus seller as well. Killer Instinct got a huge boost in popularity thanks to the 2013 reboot and there is a new game rumored on the way. It even made the number 6 spot on a WatchMojo best fighting games ever list. That doesn’t matter much but it does show that it is in a lot of people’s mind. Neither King of Fighters or Fatal Fury made the top 20.
And for the series that typically get in you don't need to raise any of this stuff. You can be like, Tekken, Minecraft, Mega Man, Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, Street Fighter, Pac-Man, etc. and people will be like, yeah, makes sense. The factors that would lead to those inclusions are self-evident. They're either big series, or very demanded characters, or both.
I get you like Battletoads, but do you know how many bigger series even just Microsoft has? And I know you want to classify it as a Rare series, but that distinction isn't going to be a thing for the powers at be. From a practical standpoint it's arbitrary.
Sora won the ballot so a second KH character doesn’t sound unrealistic to me.
Sonic and Mega Man "won" the ballot before this ballot and we still haven't gotten a second character in either of those series, and they actually have other characters with notable demand. Banjo clearly did very well on the ballot too, doesn't mean we should start expecting Mumbo Jumbo or Gruntilda, nice as that'd be. It could happen, it's just, again, outclassed by other characters from existing third-parties.
Zoroark was positioned as a mascot for Gen 5 and heavily promoted for Legends Arceus.
Gen 5 is twelve years old and L:A is already basically out of the promotion window.
Metroid Dread was a hugely successful game that renewed interest in the Metroid series.
BotW was an even more successful game and we didn't get any of those one-offs either. One-offs have a tough go of it in series with static casts, and the worst-selling Zelda games sell as well as the best-selling Metroid games.
Resident Evil is one of the best selling franchises in Japan not yet in Smash and Nemesis has already been playable in a crossover fighting game.
You know Jill and Chris both showed up in that series before Nemesis did, right? Nemesis was the fourth RE character added.
We got Kazuya over Heihachi or Jin, Minmin over Springman, and Pyra over Rex so we don’t always get the most obvious choice.
Yes but these examples are like skipping over Ryu for Chun-Li and your example is like skipping over Ryu for Zangief. And that's being generous to Nemesis considering Zangief actually shows up in nearly ever SF, which Nemesis most certainly does not.
In fact that's a very apt comparison with Tekken and RE considering both have three main alternating protags. And we got one of them. We didn't get, y'know, Yoshimitsu. Even though he's also a popular character who could've represented two series.
On another note, I think that there were a lot of choices that were generally bigger than Terry or Joker that Smash could have gone with. I’m glad both characters made it and I really wanted Joker but neither character was very highly requested and there are several franchises that are much bigger than both Persona and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters. If Smash is only supposed to go with the very most successful third party characters, why these guys over a Call of Duty soldier, Master Chief, Lara Croft, Chris Redfield, or someone else?
There were indeed bigger characters they could've gone with, but that's poor justification for characters that are notably less prolific than them. I mean Persona 5 made a pretty big splash, and Terry came not just to represent FF and KoF but seemingly all of SNK.
And again, it's a glaring fallacy to suggest that "Smash doesn't always take from literally the biggest series available, so why not this series of completely middling stature?" Which, like, I don't mean to be blunt, but both Battletoads and KI are. Because if Smash's inclusion process worked as you are suggesting, we'd be seeing characters like Alex Kidd, Arthur, Klonoa, Morrigan, Neku, Viewtiful Joe, Goemon, Raz, AiAi, and/or Bub & Bob, or any number of other characters who people know but clearly aren't big enough/lack the demand to actually get in as playable, because at that echelon there are an innumerable amount. They're not bad characters, they're just not at the level of inclusion.
I agreed Smash isn't a singularly fixed descending system mandated by sales, it's a system whereby characters over a certain threshold are likely, and those under that threshold much less so. And the bar does continue to lower over time, but not that dramatically, not that fast.
Nope but they have publishing rights to the original game and its DLC.
Though now Cuphead is basically as multi-plat as it gets, short of Doom, Skyrim and Resident Evil 4.