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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

Wonder Smash

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At least, we can make case for Halo via Minecraft and Fortnite
Mere costumes/skins in games that are not even part of the Halo series? That's not enough and certainly doesn't compare to what Snake has on Nintendo consoles prior to his appearance in Brawl.
 
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Lionfranky

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I don’t think anyone wants Master Chief in Smash because he was in Minecraft or Fortnight. I’m also pretty sure the desire to see him in Smash pre-dated his appearance in either of those games. I don’t think that really counts for much so Halo and WarCraft are in the same boat for me. That’s why I usually lean towards StarCraft between the two due to the N64 game.

I’m also totally fine with Chief, Crash, or Doom Guy in Smash, but it just bothers me that I get called out as a Microsoft shill for supporting RARE and Blizzard characters when everyone else that supports those three seem to get a pass.
Same as Cloud. Nobody wanted Cloud just because he made cameo on KH spin off and some obscure FF games. Sakurai said people wanted Cloud before his inclusion iirc. Chief during that time was considered joke/impossible/meme pick. Just browse this site.

I don't think anyone is calling you shill for fervently supporting those characters. Just pointing out here and there. I used to fervently argue for Augmon against othet Bandai rep. It can get personal really fast.

Mere costumes/skins in games that are not even part of the Halo series? That's not enough and certainly doesn't compare to what Snake has on Nintendo consoles prior to his appearance in Brawl.
The same can be said about Cloud's appearance on Nintendo platform before his inclusion.
 
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dream1ng

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Yeah, my roster was never really meant as a definitive list of who's going to show up. It was more of a hybrid between a prediction list and characters that I personally want to see who I think have a chance. I do agree with you on a lot of these points which make these characters potentially not the number one most likely choices but Smash has always been known to surprise people. Sakurai himself said that Smash isn't just a list of all of the most well known characters and fighters can be chosen for various other reasons. I think a lot of people are missing that and strictly focusing on only the most popular games without thinking about how the character actually fits into Smash.
Smash additions can be surprising, but not in the way you're outlining, where they take first from the middle of the series or from comparatively minor third-parties. Those aren't the kind of surprises Smash does. Smash chooses weirdos like G&W and WFT, or chooses sleepers like Terry and Kazuya. But they don't choose a character like Cammy or Soma or Aigis over Ryu or Simon or Joker because they might be more "interesting".

They don't choose Klonoa over Tekken or Chrono over Final Fantasy. The only way they might is if you had a character who was peaking the polls like Banjo.

You can focus on Sakurai's words and interpret them in the way you'd like, or you can judge the actions and the history.

I think you’re missed misunderstanding the argument I’m trying to make here regarding a lot of these characters. I never made the claim that I think these are the most likely to be chosen for Smash, only that they are possibilities that most people aren’t thinking about. In all honesty, Master Chief, Doom Slayer, or Crash would likely be the Microsoft rep chosen but it isn’t a foregone conclusion. Most Smash fans seem to only look at a few characters and disregard everyone else as impossible. On top of that, all I did this time was just put their names on a list, I didn’t even start defending my choice until I was called out on it. What’s the point of even discussing anything here if we’re just going to dismiss any character beyond the top 10 most speculated? Again, I don’t think the Battletoads are likely, I just think that they are possible, I’m not sure why that is so controversial.
The problem with compiling a roster where a substantial section is comprised of quite unlikely characters is quickly becomes subject to criticism. That's generally the drawback to trying to coalesce a dream and prediction roster together. It's not as personally ideal as a dream roster, and it's not realistic enough as a prediction roster.

Beyond just my personal preference, I do think that characters like the Battletoads and Fulgore have better movesets that fit into a fighting game like Smash than FPS characters like Master Chief and Doom Slayer despite their series being less popular. Sure, FPS characters could be made to work but it wouldn’t be as easy.
This is very very similar to the argument against Steve. Ease of implementation is not a particularly pertinent factor, look at how intricate some of the third-parties are becoming. For the longest time people were convinced we couldn't get a Tekken character due to the inability to translate them to Smash.

I also had Jinx and Bill Rizer on my list already so I didn't want to overload the roster with gunner characters. I think League of Legends has likely passed both Halo and DOOM in terms of general popularity so I might put Jinx in over both Chief and Doom Slayer.
You can see why using this exact reasoning is why a number of your choices are getting challenged, right? Except it's not just LoL being bigger than Halo and Doom (despite the former being a different genre and Jinx not actually sharing much with the space marines apart from using firearms, which is basically the sword argument), it's that dozens of series are notably larger than series you've suggested, who themselves are significantly smaller than Halo and Doom, two of among the more notable series in all of gaming.

It's kind of inconsistent reasoning here. Yeah, LoL is bigger than Doom, but Halo is bigger than Battletoads. But Battletoads kickstarted Rare's success so now size is less important?

Sarah Kerrigan was chosen as the Activision/Blizzard character so Crash didn't make the cut. Since I'm often accused of overstating RARE's popularity, I think most Smash fans do the same with Crash. Sure, Crash was a fairly popular platformer but it had nowhere near the cultural influence or success as Blizzard's games like WarCraft, StarCraft, or Diablo. I don't often bring that up because people are free to like who they want but I thought it was relevant because I'm constantly accused of doing the same with characters I like.
Right... but Crash is still at a level of popularity and success that Smash draws from, even if the ceiling extends above him. It's not a matter of an inflexible top-down system that has to take from the biggest remaining series as much as it is characters above a certain level are plausible, and characters below that level aren't. Resident Evil is bigger than Street Fighter or Mega Man, but both those series still have enough behind them to push them across the plausible side of the partition.

As for ActiBlizz, you'll notice I didn't challenge you on Kerrigan. I think she is an unexpected choice that could theoretically happen, but in large part due to how big Starcraft is. But on the other hand, Crash also has enough in his favor to plausibly surmount the hurdle that would trip up, for instance, Spyro.

Finally, while I do really like the roster that RodNutTakin has come up with, I personally don't think any of the characters you named (other than maybe Magus) are any less likely than many of the names on his list. I don't expect to see Toy Link, Diskun, Arle, Iori, a second Persona character, or Kris. It's possible that it's just my bias talking but I wouldn't put any of those characters above anyone you named from my list other than Magus. I'm not sure why my list was singled out for having unlikely choices but to each their own I guess. I’m not really sure what it is about my choices that causes so much controversy when some others have even more obscure picks and don’t seem to get the same backlash.
Well, I didn't single your list out. I spent a couple pages on a back and forth with RodNutTakin's list as well, including several of those characters you mentioned.

The only reason I care about RARE is because I’m a Nintendo fan and I played all of their games on Nintendo consoles. That’s why I never really looked at them as Microsoft reps just because they are owned by them but more as part of Nintendo’s past.
Anyone who has been following my posts knows that I’ve also been a huge fan of Blizzard’s properties since before Microsoft’s acquisition so I don’t view them that way either.
That's not going to serve you well though because that's just going to skew your perspective from how they are actually seen by people making decisions. Ignoring the effect of potentially being part of a company with much bigger characters is actively not using all the information at hand to form conclusions, because it obviously is a factor.

I honestly don’t really ever view characters as company reps at all but rather as characters themselves. It does kind of confuse me how much backlash RARE characters get on a board full of Nintendo fans when Master Chief seems to get near universal support despite never appearing on a Nintendo console and having no history with the company. Crash and Doom Slayer make a lot more sense and would be great choices as well but they’ve always been multi platform and not tied to Nintendo specifically. Crash was originally used as the mascot for PlayStation.
Well first of all it's because it's been like seven years since people thought a Nintendo connection was important. There used to be a time where a clearly much bigger character like Master Chief would suffer from his position as Mr. Xbox, and that's why he was a joke of a suggestion for like a decade. But we're in the age of Cloud and Joker and Steve and Banjo and Sora and many more things seem possible now.

On the other hand, the outdated factor of Nintendo-association is really the only thing the remaining Rare characters have, because they're like... they're certainly not nobodies, but they're also not nearly prolific enough to get in with the bar where it currently is. If they were to get in, they would need to rely on popularity. And that's where the Nintendo association can still be useful, but in these cases it hasn't amounted to much.

And maybe that's really not all surprising given even when Rare was with Nintendo, Banjo was really the only (non-DK, non-Krystal, non-James Bond) Rare character with notable popularity, and under Microsoft none of the series have really flourished. I guess KI is the closest, but... there are just many bigger series out there.

I never even wanted to go on and on about why I felt these characters were deserving. I would have much rather been discussing fun ideas for how they could play, what their stages could be, different costumes, assist trophies, and other things. The only reason why I did was people only seemed interested in telling me that they could never happen and the only possible Microsoft characters were Master Chief, Crash, or Doom Slayer. All I ever tried to do was suggest other possibilities but people seem to get bothered by anything outside of the common speculation bubble.
Well you are free to expound on those ideas too, if you want.

Also you're going to run into people distilling a company's prospects down to a small handful of top contenders, not just Microsoft. It's the nature of how Smash and speculation function. You're not disallowed from talking about other characters, but you're also just going to face a lot of resistance if you choose to argue why a character like Viewtiful Joe might get in over Dante, Monster Hunter, a RE character, Chun-Li, or maybe Phoenix Wright, which is the equivalent of what you're doing.
 
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Wonder Smash

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Who decides which appearance counts? You?
Didn't you just try to decide that Master Chief's "appearances" count?

And every other character made actual appearances on Nintendo consoles before they were in Smash. They didn't have just have costumes or skins other games before they appeared.
 
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Verde Coeden Scalesworth

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Who decides which appearance counts? You?
Why would a minor cameo be the same as an actual Final Fantasy game that stars multiple FF characters(which Cloud directly appears in. We aren't talking Kingdom Hearts either. That was an actual cameo at best. Even Sephiroth had a bigger showing in it, being a full-out boss)?

They're completely different things.

The only one who comes close is Joker, and he still had a Persona game come out before he got in. We don't have details on how it went, but there's a fair chance Joker was asked for after the game was already being worked on anyway. Does that mean it was a factor? Not necessarily. It just happened to work out.
 

dream1ng

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Mere costumes/skins in games that are not even part of the Halo series? That's not enough and certainly doesn't compare to what Snake has on Nintendo consoles prior to his appearance in Brawl.
Didn't you just decide that Master Chief's appearances counts?
Well it doesn't compare to Snake, but the thing is we can't definitively say it's not enough. It might not be enough, but currently it's all guesswork, and therefore, conjecture. It's not conclusive enough to take the possibility off the table.
 

PeridotGX

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Honestly I think we should throw the whole "they must be on a Nintendo system" thing in the bin. Joker, the FF7 duo, and the Vault Boy Mii costume all barely have Nintendo appearances, do you really think Nintendo is splitting hairs on this? And if, for example, Valve went up to Sakurai and asked them to add Gordan Freeman, do you really think Sakurai would say no just because there hadn't been a Half Life game on Nintendo?

Let the chaos reign.
 

Wonder Smash

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Well it doesn't compare to Snake, but the thing is we can't definitively say it's not enough. It might not be enough, but currently it's all guesswork, and therefore, conjecture. It's not conclusive enough to take the possibility off the table.
But at the same time, we can still go by what's already shown with the characters in Smash so far and in this case, Master Chief only has costumes in other games, which is far less than all the other characters had.

Honestly I think we should throw the whole "they must be on a Nintendo system" thing in the bin. Joker, the FF7 duo, and the Vault Boy Mii costume all barely have Nintendo appearances, do you really think Nintendo is splitting hairs on this? And if, for example, Valve went up to Sakurai and asked them to add Gordan Freeman, do you really think Sakurai would say no just because there hadn't been a Half Life game on Nintendo?

Let the chaos reign.
Those are still appearances on Nintendo consoles, no matter what, so until there's a character that gets in Smash without those appearances, there's no reason to act like it doesn't count.

And you're making it seem as if Nintendo would accept just any character in Smash if all a company has to do is just ask. Grand Theft Auto games are also on Nintendo consoles but be honest, do you really think Sakurai or Nintendo would add CJ to the roster?
 
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dream1ng

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Honestly I think we should throw the whole "they must be on a Nintendo system" thing in the bin. Joker, the FF7 duo, and the Vault Boy Mii costume all barely have Nintendo appearances, do you really think Nintendo is splitting hairs on this? And if, for example, Valve went up to Sakurai and asked them to add Gordan Freeman, do you really think Sakurai would say no just because there hadn't been a Half Life game on Nintendo?

Let the chaos reign.
I think that, for all intents and purposes, being liberal with what counts and including skins, there aren't even any plausible additions who haven't been on a Nintendo system. The main ones I guess would be from Sony (bar Kratos) and Valve, but I think there'd be a mutual lack of cooperation with the former and I don't see Nintendo prioritizing the latter for inclusion.

I think all the plausible candidates have made Nintendo appearances, and skins knock out the last few holdouts like Chief, 2B, and maybe Jinx. So we can debate over the theoretical restrictions, but from a practical perspective, I don't actually think the rule, either way, means much.

But at the same time, we can still go by what's already shown with the characters in Smash so far and in this case, Master Chief only has costumes in other games, which is far less than all the other characters had.
It's less, which is why it's inconclusive, but it's not nothing, which is why it can't be dismissed.
 

Wonder Smash

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It's less, which is why it's inconclusive, but it's not nothing, which is why it can't be dismissed.
The fact that no other character in Smash has that much less going for them is why it can be dismissed.

But it's funny how your stance on this is the complete opposite of Chase McCain; there's no problems with Master Chief getting in despite having no real appearances or any of his games on Nintendo consoles but there is a problem with Chase McCain because, despite not only debuting on a Nintendo console but also having both games published by Nintendo themselves, his games just simply baring the name of a non-video game property is some kind of obstacle that's never even hinted.
 
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PeridotGX

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I think that, for all intents and purposes, being liberal with what counts and including skins, there aren't even any plausible additions who haven't been on a Nintendo system. The main ones I guess would be from Sony (bar Kratos) and Valve, but I think there'd be a mutual lack of cooperation with the former and I don't see Nintendo prioritizing the latter for inclusion.

I think all the plausible candidates have made Nintendo appearances, and skins knock out the last few holdouts like Chief, 2B, and maybe Jinx. So we can debate over the theoretical restrictions, but from a practical perspective, I don't actually think the rule, either way, means much.


It's less, which is why it's inconclusive, but it's not nothing, which is why it can't be dismissed.
That's another thing. Yes, all the series in Smash have appearances in Nintendo games, but how much of that is a deliberate decision and how much of it is just that almost every notable character has made some sort of appearance on a Nintendo system? There are so few characters impeded by the rule it's really irrelevant to keep it up.
 

ShadicMCGS

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Is there like any separate threads where I can discuss non-Smash crossovers (like Nintendo vs. SEGA, other company crossovers, etc.) freely? I don't just wanna talk about Nintendo vs. SEGA without having the other conversations interrupting.
 

dream1ng

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The fact that no other character in Smash has that much less going for them is why it can be dismissed.
People are so uncomfortable leaving things in the grey area, but if the 'it hasn't happened so it won't happen' argument is your best defence, that shows how ill-founded dealing in absolutes here is.

But it's funny how your stance on this is the complete opposite of Chase McCane; there's no problems with Master Chief getting in despite having no real appearances or any of his games on Nintendo consoles but there is a problem with Chase McCane because, despite not only debuting on a Nintendo console but also having both games published by Nintendo themselves, his game just simply bares the name of a non-video game property.
If you want to go back you'll see I'm doing anything but opposing my previous point. In that argument I was stressing how irrelevant it was to have that proximity to Nintendo, much as I'm doing now. Close Nintendo relevance is not the factor it was once, a very long time ago, thought to be.

And yeah, being under the Lego umbrella is a hugely disadvantageous quality. It requires Nintendo to want to represent a toy-line in Smash. I think they'd sooner go with a series not on their system that at least is still video game in origin. But I don't have anything new to say about that.
 

fogbadge

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Honestly I think we should throw the whole "they must be on a Nintendo system" thing in the bin. Joker, the FF7 duo, and the Vault Boy Mii costume all barely have Nintendo appearances, do you really think Nintendo is splitting hairs on this? And if, for example, Valve went up to Sakurai and asked them to add Gordan Freeman, do you really think Sakurai would say no just because there hadn't been a Half Life game on Nintendo?

Let the chaos reign.
in fairness 7 was on the switch before we got seph
 

Gengar84

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Smash additions can be surprising, but not in the way you're outlining, where they take first from the middle of the series or from comparatively minor third-parties. Those aren't the kind of surprises Smash does. Smash chooses weirdos like G&W and WFT, or chooses sleepers like Terry and Kazuya. But they don't choose a character like Cammy or Soma or Aigis over Ryu or Simon or Joker because they might be more "interesting".

They don't choose Klonoa over Tekken or Chrono over Final Fantasy. The only way they might is if you had a character who was peaking the polls like Banjo.

You can focus on Sakurai's words and interpret them in the way you'd like, or you can judge the actions and the history.


The problem with compiling a roster where a substantial section is comprised of quite unlikely characters is quickly becomes subject to criticism. That's generally the drawback to trying to coalesce a dream and prediction roster together. It's not as personally ideal as a dream roster, and it's not realistic enough as a prediction roster.


This is very very similar to the argument against Steve. Ease of implementation is not a particularly pertinent factor, look at how intricate some of the third-parties are becoming. For the longest time people were convinced we couldn't get a Tekken character due to the inability to translate them to Smash.


You can see why using this exact reasoning is why a number of your choices are getting challenged, right? Except it's not just LoL being bigger than Halo and Doom (despite the former being a different genre and Jinx not actually sharing much with the space marines apart from using firearms, which is basically the sword argument), it's that dozens of series are notably larger than series you've suggested, who themselves are significantly smaller than Halo and Doom, two of among the more notable series in all of gaming.

It's kind of inconsistent reasoning here. Yeah, LoL is bigger than Doom, but Halo is bigger than Battletoads. But Battletoads kickstarted Rare's success so now size is less important?


Right... but Crash is still at a level of popularity and success that Smash draws from, even if the ceiling extends above him. It's not a matter of an inflexible top-down system that has to take from the biggest remaining series as much as it is characters above a certain level are plausible, and characters below that level aren't. Resident Evil is bigger than Street Fighter or Mega Man, but both those series still have enough behind them to push them across the plausible side of the partition.

As for ActiBlizz, you'll notice I didn't challenge you on Kerrigan. I think she is an unexpected choice that could theoretically happen, but in large part due to how big Starcraft is. But on the other hand, Crash also has enough in his favor to plausibly surmount the hurdle that would trip up, for instance, Spyro.


Well, I didn't single your list out. I spent a couple pages on a back and forth with RodNutTakin's list as well, including several of those characters you mentioned.



That's not going to serve you well though because that's just going to skew your perspective from how they are actually seen by people making decisions. Ignoring the effect of potentially being part of a company with much bigger characters is actively not using all the information at hand to form conclusions, because it obviously is a factor.


Well first of all it's because it's been like seven years since people thought a Nintendo connection was important. There used to be a time where a clearly much bigger character like Master Chief would suffer from his position as Mr. Xbox, and that's why he was a joke of a suggestion for like a decade. But we're in the age of Cloud and Joker and Steve and Banjo and Sora and many more things seem possible now.

On the other hand, the outdated factor of Nintendo-association is really the only thing the remaining Rare characters have, because they're like... they're certainly not nobodies, but they're also not nearly prolific enough to get in with the bar where it currently is. If they were to get in, they would need to rely on popularity. And that's where the Nintendo association can still be useful, but in these cases it hasn't amounted to much.

And maybe that's really not all surprising given even when Rare was with Nintendo, Banjo was really the only (non-DK, non-Krystal, non-James Bond) Rare character with notable popularity, and under Microsoft none of the series have really flourished. I guess KI is the closest, but... there are just many bigger series out there.


Well you are free to expound on those ideas too, if you want.

Also you're going to run into people distilling a company's prospects down to a small handful of top contenders, not just Microsoft. It's the nature of how Smash and speculation function. You're not disallowed from talking about other characters, but you're also just going to face a lot of resistance if you choose to argue why a character like Viewtiful Joe might get in over Dante, Monster Hunter, a RE character, Chun-Li, or maybe Phoenix Wright, which is the equivalent of what you're doing.
Smash has already gotten third party characters over more generally popular choices due to their connection with Nintendo. We did just get Banjo before Master Chief, Doom Slayer, and Crash and Banjo was never as big as any of them. Banjo was only as requested as he was due to his connection with Nintendo. You could make a similar argument with Mega Man. These days, Resident Evil and Monster Hunter are far more successful than Mega Man is but a lot of people wanted Mega Man because they closely tied him with Nintendo during the NES and SNES eras. Mega Man even got in before Ryu and Street Fighter dwarfs the Mega Man series in popularity. Simon from CastleVania is another popular character that I believe was largely requested due to his NES and SNES games. While he is fairly popular, there are many other characters with much more general popularity these days they could have chosen. I don’t see how my favorites are any different in that regard.

On another note, I think that there were a lot of choices that were generally bigger than Terry or Joker that Smash could have gone with. I’m glad both characters made it and I really wanted Joker but neither character was very highly requested and there are several franchises that are much bigger than both Persona and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters. If Smash is only supposed to go with the very most successful third party characters, why these guys over a Call of Duty soldier, Master Chief, Lara Croft, Chris Redfield, or someone else?

I think you are underselling the popularity of the characters on my list. The Battletoads games are still known today for speed runs, the GameStop memes, the status of being the hardest NES game, their cameos in various games. The reboot was a million plus seller as well. Killer Instinct got a huge boost in popularity thanks to the 2013 reboot and there is a new game rumored on the way. It even made the number 6 spot on a WatchMojo best fighting games ever list. That doesn’t matter much but it does show that it is in a lot of people’s mind. Neither King of Fighters or Fatal Fury made the top 20. There’s something that I don’t think you’re understanding. Smash is still primarily a Nintendo game and I prioritized some characters some characters (Battletoads and Fulgore) due to their history with Nintendo over Master Chief. Halo is inarguably more popular but has absolutely no connection with Nintendo and has never has an appearance on any of their consoles. History with Nintendo shouldn’t be the only thing that matters but I still think it should be one thing to take into account when deciding characters.

Sora won the ballot so a second KH character doesn’t sound unrealistic to me. Zoroark was positioned as a mascot for Gen 5 and heavily promoted for Legends Arceus. Metroid Dread was a hugely successful game that renewed interest in the Metroid series. Resident Evil is one of the best selling franchises in Japan not yet in Smash and Nemesis has already been playable in a crossover fighting game. We got Kazuya over Heihachi or Jin, Minmin over Springman, and Pyra over Rex so we don’t always get the most obvious choice.

Finally, what’s the point of even talking about anything if it’s already decided who’s getting in? Part of the fun of speculation is seeing everyone’s own personal take and inserting some of their own favorites of the game. We might as well just shut the thread down if we’re just going to call out people whenever they try to bring up a character who might be slightly less likely to make it in. Let’s just Google the top 15 best selling games, choose the main character from each of those games, and call it a day. There’s nothing left to discuss.
 
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Diddy Kong

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The most obvious third party newcomers to me are Monster Hunter and someone else from Sonic, and after that maybe Chun Li.

I don't and never will get the mass appeal or the serious discussions between Master Chief and Doom Slayer as if they're inevitable. I don't think they are, by a landslide.
 

dream1ng

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Smash has already gotten third party characters over more generally popular choices due to their connection with Nintendo. We did just get Banjo before Master Chief, Doom Slayer, and Crash and Banjo was never as big as any of them. Banjo was only as requested as he was due to his connection with Nintendo. You could make a similar argument with Mega Man. These days, Resident Evil and Monster Hunter are far more successful than Mega Man is but a lot of people wanted Mega Man because they closely tied him with Nintendo during the NES and SNES eras. Mega Man even got in before Ryu and Street Fighter dwarfs the Mega Man series in popularity. Simon from CastleVania is another popular character that I believe was largely requested due to his NES and SNES games. While he is fairly popular, there are many other characters with much more general popularity these days they could have chosen. I don’t see how my favorites are any different in that regard.
Yes, it's an indirect factor, but none of your suggestions of characters with close relation to Nintendo have the critical thing the association leads to, the demand. You need the second part to actually capitalize off the inciting factor.

Basically, you need the ensuing popularity for the Nintendo association to mean anything. Otherwise it's just like a third-party getting a Switch port. Ultimately pretty meaningless unless it can be cultivated into significant demand.

I think you are underselling the popularity of the characters on my list. The Battletoads games are still known today for speed runs, the GameStop memes, the status of being the hardest NES game, their cameos in various games. The reboot was a million plus seller as well. Killer Instinct got a huge boost in popularity thanks to the 2013 reboot and there is a new game rumored on the way. It even made the number 6 spot on a WatchMojo best fighting games ever list. That doesn’t matter much but it does show that it is in a lot of people’s mind. Neither King of Fighters or Fatal Fury made the top 20.
And for the series that typically get in you don't need to raise any of this stuff. You can be like, Tekken, Minecraft, Mega Man, Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, Street Fighter, Pac-Man, etc. and people will be like, yeah, makes sense. The factors that would lead to those inclusions are self-evident. They're either big series, or very demanded characters, or both.

I get you like Battletoads, but do you know how many bigger series even just Microsoft has? And I know you want to classify it as a Rare series, but that distinction isn't going to be a thing for the powers at be. From a practical standpoint it's arbitrary.

Sora won the ballot so a second KH character doesn’t sound unrealistic to me.
Sonic and Mega Man "won" the ballot before this ballot and we still haven't gotten a second character in either of those series, and they actually have other characters with notable demand. Banjo clearly did very well on the ballot too, doesn't mean we should start expecting Mumbo Jumbo or Gruntilda, nice as that'd be. It could happen, it's just, again, outclassed by other characters from existing third-parties.

Zoroark was positioned as a mascot for Gen 5 and heavily promoted for Legends Arceus.
Gen 5 is twelve years old and L:A is already basically out of the promotion window.

Metroid Dread was a hugely successful game that renewed interest in the Metroid series.
BotW was an even more successful game and we didn't get any of those one-offs either. One-offs have a tough go of it in series with static casts, and the worst-selling Zelda games sell as well as the best-selling Metroid games.

Resident Evil is one of the best selling franchises in Japan not yet in Smash and Nemesis has already been playable in a crossover fighting game.
You know Jill and Chris both showed up in that series before Nemesis did, right? Nemesis was the fourth RE character added.

We got Kazuya over Heihachi or Jin, Minmin over Springman, and Pyra over Rex so we don’t always get the most obvious choice.
Yes but these examples are like skipping over Ryu for Chun-Li and your example is like skipping over Ryu for Zangief. And that's being generous to Nemesis considering Zangief actually shows up in nearly ever SF, which Nemesis most certainly does not.

In fact that's a very apt comparison with Tekken and RE considering both have three main alternating protags. And we got one of them. We didn't get, y'know, Yoshimitsu. Even though he's also a popular character who could've represented two series.

On another note, I think that there were a lot of choices that were generally bigger than Terry or Joker that Smash could have gone with. I’m glad both characters made it and I really wanted Joker but neither character was very highly requested and there are several franchises that are much bigger than both Persona and Fatal Fury/King of Fighters. If Smash is only supposed to go with the very most successful third party characters, why these guys over a Call of Duty soldier, Master Chief, Lara Croft, Chris Redfield, or someone else?
There were indeed bigger characters they could've gone with, but that's poor justification for characters that are notably less prolific than them. I mean Persona 5 made a pretty big splash, and Terry came not just to represent FF and KoF but seemingly all of SNK.

And again, it's a glaring fallacy to suggest that "Smash doesn't always take from literally the biggest series available, so why not this series of completely middling stature?" Which, like, I don't mean to be blunt, but both Battletoads and KI are. Because if Smash's inclusion process worked as you are suggesting, we'd be seeing characters like Alex Kidd, Arthur, Klonoa, Morrigan, Neku, Viewtiful Joe, Goemon, Raz, AiAi, and/or Bub & Bob, or any number of other characters who people know but clearly aren't big enough/lack the demand to actually get in as playable, because at that echelon there are an innumerable amount. They're not bad characters, they're just not at the level of inclusion.

I agreed Smash isn't a singularly fixed descending system mandated by sales, it's a system whereby characters over a certain threshold are likely, and those under that threshold much less so. And the bar does continue to lower over time, but not that dramatically, not that fast.

Nope but they have publishing rights to the original game and its DLC.
Though now Cuphead is basically as multi-plat as it gets, short of Doom, Skyrim and Resident Evil 4.
 

RileyXY1

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Metroid was lucky to have representation past Samus herself. Zero Suit Samus was originally created for a transformation gimmick, Ridley only got in because of fan demand, and Dark Samus was an easy to create clone.
 

92MilesPrower

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Honestly I think we should throw the whole "they must be on a Nintendo system" thing in the bin. Joker, the FF7 duo, and the Vault Boy Mii costume all barely have Nintendo appearances, do you really think Nintendo is splitting hairs on this? And if, for example, Valve went up to Sakurai and asked them to add Gordan Freeman, do you really think Sakurai would say no just because there hadn't been a Half Life game on Nintendo?

Let the chaos reign.
The thing with Cloud and Joker is that although the content that came along with them is mostly from the specific titles they’re from, they still represent the Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei franchises as a whole, both of which have their roots tied to Nintendo. They were chosen as representatives because of fan demand, alongside relevancy and popularity. Whenever Final Fantasy is brought up, most people would think of FF7, while SMT has been eclipsed in popularity by the Persona spin-off series, and P5 is the most recent title and extremely well received.

Not sure about Vault Boy and Bethesda’s ties with Nintendo that much though tbh.
 

Gengar84

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Yes, it's an indirect factor, but none of your suggestions of characters with close relation to Nintendo have the critical thing the association leads to, the demand. You need the second part to actually capitalize off the inciting factor.

Basically, you need the ensuing popularity for the Nintendo association to mean anything. Otherwise it's just like a third-party getting a Switch port. Ultimately pretty meaningless unless it can be cultivated into significant demand.


And for the series that typically get in you don't need to raise any of this stuff. You can be like, Tekken, Minecraft, Mega Man, Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Castlevania, Persona, Dragon Quest, Banjo-Kazooie, Street Fighter, Pac-Man, etc. and people will be like, yeah, makes sense. The factors that would lead to those inclusions are self-evident. They're either big series, or very demanded characters, or both.

I get you like Battletoads, but do you know how many bigger series even just Microsoft has? And I know you want to classify it as a Rare series, but that distinction isn't going to be a thing for the powers at be. From a practical standpoint it's arbitrary.


Sonic and Mega Man "won" the ballot before this ballot and we still haven't gotten a second character in either of those series, and they actually have other characters with notable demand. Banjo clearly did very well on the ballot too, doesn't mean we should start expecting Mumbo Jumbo or Gruntilda, nice as that'd be. It could happen, it's just, again, outclassed by other characters from existing third-parties.


Gen 5 is twelve years old and L:A is already basically out of the promotion window.


BotW was an even more successful game and we didn't get any of those one-offs either. One-offs have a tough go of it in series with static casts, and the worst-selling Zelda games sell as well as the best-selling Metroid games.


You know Jill and Chris both showed up in that series before Nemesis did, right? Nemesis was the fourth RE character added.


Yes but these examples are like skipping over Ryu for Chun-Li and your example is like skipping over Ryu for Zangief. And that's being generous to Nemesis considering Zangief actually shows up in nearly ever SF, which Nemesis most certainly does not.

In fact that's a very apt comparison with Tekken and RE considering both have three main alternating protags. And we got one of them. We didn't get, y'know, Yoshimitsu. Even though he's also a popular character who could've represented two series.


There were indeed bigger characters they could've gone with, but that's poor justification for characters that are notably less prolific than them. I mean Persona 5 made a pretty big splash, and Terry came not just to represent FF and KoF but seemingly all of SNK.

And again, it's a glaring fallacy to suggest that "Smash doesn't always take from literally the biggest series available, so why not this series of completely middling stature?" Which, like, I don't mean to be blunt, but both Battletoads and KI are. Because if Smash's inclusion process worked as you are suggesting, we'd be seeing characters like Alex Kidd, Arthur, Klonoa, Morrigan, Neku, Viewtiful Joe, Goemon, Raz, AiAi, and/or Bub & Bob, or any number of other characters who people know but clearly aren't big enough/lack the demand to actually get in as playable, because at that echelon there are an innumerable amount. They're not bad characters, they're just not at the level of inclusion.

I agreed Smash isn't a singularly fixed descending system mandated by sales, it's a system whereby characters over a certain threshold are likely, and those under that threshold much less so. And the bar does continue to lower over time, but not that dramatically, not that fast.


Though now Cuphead is basically as multi-plat as it gets, short of Doom, Skyrim and Resident Evil 4.
Screw it, I give up. Clearly no matter what I say, you’re just going to keep telling me that I’m wrong so it’s pointless to keep arguing with you. All I was ever trying to do was share a fun list of characters I thought would be cool to see while keeping the list somewhat realistic. If it had been a complete dream roster, I’d have included Zegram Ghart from Rogue Galaxy, Raziel from Soul Reaver, a Goomba, Gengar, Pharaoh Man, Bugzzy, and other far more obscure characters. What’s even the point in posting a prediction list if we can’t personalize it at all? Everyone’s list would end up looking exactly the same between the same 20 or so agreed upon characters and there wouldn’t be anything to talk about.
 

fogbadge

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The most obvious third party newcomers to me are Monster Hunter and someone else from Sonic, and after that maybe Chun Li.

I don't and never will get the mass appeal or the serious discussions between Master Chief and Doom Slayer as if they're inevitable. I don't think they are, by a landslide.
i would guess its cause so many people still put stock in things like popularity and a series influence. even though youd think terry and bayo would kinds disprove that
 

Diddy Kong

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Metroid was lucky to have representation past Samus herself. Zero Suit Samus was originally created for a transformation gimmick, Ridley only got in because of fan demand, and Dark Samus was an easy to create clone.
Not just the gimmick, up until then, Zero Suit Samus made the most sense for a Metroid newcomer. And people still try to undersell this, she made a lot of appearances in Metroid beforehand, the GBA game Zero Mission being most noticable. And don't forget she's basically the one character that Metroid resolves around.

Not a popular opinion but Ridley is Smash is quite a feat to the lengths Sakurai went to please his fans. To this day, I still view Ridley in Ultimate as a rather awkward character that was sort of forced in due to fan demand. He's too small, awkwardly proportioned, and I honestly think sometimes the Boss battles in Brawl and stage obstacle in Smash 4 did him more justice.

I think the fact Ultimate has 4 Metroid characters is honestly nothing but miraculous. We definitely never pictured this happening before, and I also think Dark Samus is a very lucky addition.
 

Gengar84

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Not just the gimmick, up until then, Zero Suit Samus made the most sense for a Metroid newcomer. And people still try to undersell this, she made a lot of appearances in Metroid beforehand, the GBA game Zero Mission being most noticable. And don't forget she's basically the one character that Metroid resolves around.

Not a popular opinion but Ridley is Smash is quite a feat to the lengths Sakurai went to please his fans. To this day, I still view Ridley in Ultimate as a rather awkward character that was sort of forced in due to fan demand. He's too small, awkwardly proportioned, and I honestly think sometimes the Boss battles in Brawl and stage obstacle in Smash 4 did him more justice.

I think the fact Ultimate has 4 Metroid characters is honestly nothing but miraculous. We definitely never pictured this happening before, and I also think Dark Samus is a very lucky addition.
I’m still really glad Ridley made it it, even if he did end up having to be a little awkward as a result. Ridley is such a cool and unique Smash character and Metroid is an awesome series.
 

ceterisparibus

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the handwringing over "this character needs to have 4 stills, 3 cameos and a funny action sequence in an actual nintendo console, less than that doesn't count" is really funny. Imagining hooded sakurai and co in a dank boardroom discussing in hushed whispers over the legitimacy of so-and-so being included instead of their direct popularity and recognition.

as much as i enjoyed persona q, sometimes i wished q2 wasn't made so we would have ditched the bad argument by now with joker's inclusion. Especially a persona character making it over the much more nintendo-afflicted SMT should've been a wake-up call if solid snake and cloud strife weren't included before that
 
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Wonder Smash

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People are so uncomfortable leaving things in the grey area, but if the 'it hasn't happened so it won't happen' argument is your best defence, that shows how ill-founded dealing in absolutes here is.
It really doesn't, as in that case, we're at least going by what's officially shown in the game, rather than making up excuses for how a character can get in. Skins in other game series? I don't think that's supported by anything that's already in the game, where as a character that have appearances on Nintendo consoles prior to Smash has been consistent throughout the whole series.

If you want to go back you'll see I'm doing anything but opposing my previous point. In that argument I was stressing how irrelevant it was to have that proximity to Nintendo, much as I'm doing now. Close Nintendo relevance is not the factor it was once, a very long time ago, thought to be.

And yeah, being under the Lego umbrella is a hugely disadvantageous quality. It requires Nintendo to want to represent a toy-line in Smash. I think they'd sooner go with a series not on their system that at least is still video game in origin. But I don't have anything new to say about that.
LEGO's name being a "hugely disadvantageous quality" is a claim that's not supported by anything said by Nintendo or Sakurai. In addition to that, Chase would be representing a game based on the toy-line, not the toy-line itself. So in the end, it would still be all video game related and Chase being so heavily involved with Nintendo would make a much more reasonable choice for Smash compared to Master Chief, who has no games or real appearances on Nintendo consoles at all.

To me, it seems like you're trying to throw away the Nintendo connection entirely just to allow characters like Master Chief to get in, when it's clear that it's more important to Nintendo than you think. Even Nintendo pointed out that the franchise that Joker's series come from have a long history on Nintendo consoles.
 
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Arcanir

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Not a popular opinion but Ridley is Smash is quite a feat to the lengths Sakurai went to please his fans. To this day, I still view Ridley in Ultimate as a rather awkward character that was sort of forced in due to fan demand. He's too small, awkwardly proportioned, and I honestly think sometimes the Boss battles in Brawl and stage obstacle in Smash 4 did him more justice.
Eh, I'd definitely argue that. Ridley in Brawl had none of his iconic traits, no Fireballs, the tail was only used in a drag move (something he only does in a game years later), and his brutality was virtually only in the cutscenes. In fact, a common joke back at the time was that he basically just had Master Hand's moveset slapped onto him, that's how generic the boss moveset felt. Meta Ridley was better, but he was also hamstring by the story sequence he was attached to, his attacks had to be catered to the escape part and the size of the arena and had to make caveats to work. Smash 4 was arguably the best (though ridiculously intrusive), but also had the very strange mechanic of him rolling over for any person who beats him up enough which is starkly different from his mainline incarnation where he's violently vengeful to those who slight him (just ask Samus). It also had some odd quirks like calling powered up Ridley 'Meta Ridley', which is not accurate at all to that incarnation of the character.

In terms of capturing the character Ultimate was handled better then both. His iconic tail is a prominent feature in his moveset, his fireballs are present, and his cruelty and brutality are showcased very strongly, especially in moves like Space Pirate Rush and Skewer. He also was given a number of good references such as the lesser known title "Cunning God of Death" being used for the Boxing Ring and the alternate costumes drawing from his many appearances, even the ZM Robot. It's definitely not perfect as there's some things that could be tweaked about it (such as Down A, I'm surprised it was never touched in a patch), but I wouldn't put him below either of his boss or hazard appearances since they have strong weaknesses in how they were handled.
 
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ceterisparibus

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It really doesn't, as in that case, we're at least going by what's officially shown in the game, rather than making up excuses for how a character can get in. Skins in other game series? I don't think that's supported by anything that's already in the game, where as a character that have appearances on Nintendo consoles prior to Smash has been consistent throughout the whole series.



LEGO's name being a "hugely disadvantageous quality" is a claim that's not supported by anything said by Nintendo or Sakurai. In addition to that, Chase would be representing a game based on the toy-line, not the toy-line itself. So in the end, it would still be all video game related and Chase being so heavily involved with Nintendo would make a much more reasonable choice for Smash compared to Master Chief, who has no games or real appearances on Nintendo consoles at all.

To me, it seems like you're trying to throw away the Nintendo connection entirely just to allow characters like Master Chief to get in, when it's clear that it's more important to Nintendo than you think. Even Nintendo pointed out that the franchise that Joker's series come from have a long history on Nintendo consoles.
I'm just trying to understand here, your overall point here is that characters need to have a history that's poorly defined and extremely flexible since it ranges from "many storied entries on nintendo consoles and a closed perceived relationship to nintendo" to "bargain spinoff"? Especially when there isn't anything absolute that has been stated by Sakurai or nintendo, and it assumes there's a committee to...analyze the number of nintendo cameos potential candidates have?

If i have to be honest that sounds like a pretty unhealthy attitude when, in your opinion, it automatically blocks out an entire group of hugely iconic characters. We all speculate about who has bigger chances and who doesn't.. but to upfront declare an entire list of characters to be flat out ineligible based on a pretty controversial point (here, at least!) it does feel like you're majorly limiting your horizon if i have to be honest.
 

Wonder Smash

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I'm just trying to understand here, your overall point here is that characters need to have a history that's poorly defined and extremely flexible since it ranges from "many storied entries on nintendo consoles and a closed perceived relationship to nintendo" to "bargain spinoff"? Especially when there isn't anything absolute that has been stated by Sakurai or nintendo, and it assumes there's a committee to...analyze the number of nintendo cameos potential candidates have?
Who said anything about the "number" of cameos? The point is a character usually has an appearance on a Nintendo console before appearing in Smash. I think at this point, we all know that it's not a matter how many appearances that a character has. That's more of preference since Smash itself is still heavily Nintendo-themed and fans prefer characters that fit that theme. However, the long history that the character and their series do have just adds more to it and if Nintendo is indeed heavily involved in those series, it could help their chances even more. We've seen this happen with one character (Bayonetta), so there's no reason to think it couldn't happen again.

If i have to be honest that sounds like a pretty unhealthy attitude when, in your opinion, it automatically blocks out an entire group of hugely iconic characters. We all speculate about who has bigger chances and who doesn't.. but to upfront declare an entire list of characters to be flat out ineligible based on a pretty controversial point (here, at least!) it does feel like you're majorly limiting your horizon if i have to be honest.
Appearing on a Nintendo console shouldn't even be a controversial point in the first place and if it's the number of iconic characters you're worried about, there's still plenty of them on Nintendo consoles that are not in Smash yet. Aside from my MWs (Ryu Hayabusa, Billy and Jimmy Lee, Doom Slayer), there's also Crash Bandicoot, Scorpion, Kunio and Riki, Bill and Lance, Adol Christin, Arthur, and so much more, as well as fan favorites that are popular picks among the fanbase (Travis Touchdown, Shovel Knight, Lloyd, Rayman). So it's not like Smash NEEDS iconic characters that haven't been on Nintendo consoles. There's still plenty of them left that has.
 
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Megadoomer

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I do remember Master Cheif and Kratos were added to fortnite and that game is on Nintendo switch or were they specifically exclusive?
From what I recall, they were on every version of the game. (I think that also applied to other characters from those companies - bare minimum, I think Aloy from Horizon: Zero Dawn was also in Fortnite on every platform, though I could be wrong)

EDIT: found a source; Marcus Fenix from Gears of War is another example.
 
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chocolatejr9

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I do remember Master Cheif and Kratos were added to fortnite and that game is on Nintendo switch or were they specifically exclusive?
Yeah, apparently that's some sort of rule with their collabs: no console exclusives. It's why we never got any Nintendo collabs, despite Epic Games clearly wanting some.
 

PeridotGX

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I do remember Master Cheif and Kratos were added to fortnite and that game is on Nintendo switch or were they specifically exclusive?
they are. In fact, there were plans for Samus to be added, but they fell through in part because Nintendo was adamant she should only be on Switch.

i don't get why nintendo is so stubborn about that. yeah, i would be pissed if nintendo started porting their games to pc and playstation, but what's the harm in letting people use fortnite skins cross platform? its free promotion.
 

chocolatejr9

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they are. In fact, there were plans for Samus to be added, but they fell through in part because Nintendo was adamant she should only be on Switch.

i don't get why nintendo is so stubborn about that. yeah, i would be pissed if nintendo started porting their games to pc and playstation, but what's the harm in letting people use fortnite skins cross platform? its free promotion.
Probably because the last time they tried something like that, we got the CD-I games. Some wounds just don't heal...
 

DarthEnderX

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The thing with Cloud and Joker is that although the content that came along with them is mostly from the specific titles they’re from, they still represent the Final Fantasy and Shin Megami Tensei franchises as a whole, both of which have their roots tied to Nintendo.
Thiiiiis.
 
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