I feel like people vastly overestimate how characthers will get cut I think it's gonna be like 10 min to 20 max. People who think they are gonna cut half the roster are kinda of dumb
I wouldn't call them dumb, but I do agree that cuts are being overestimated. Up until now, cuts have occurred for 3 reasons, let me go quickly over them and try and explain why I think they're not as big an issue as I previously thought:
Technical Limitations: This one is simple to explain. Characters like the Ice Climbers were cut because the console, in their case the 3DS, couldn't run them properly. I presume this is also why the Chorus Kids didn't get in Smash 4. The Switch 2 will be more powerful than the Switch so there should be no Ultimate character that would have this sort of issue going forward.
Lack of time: Sometimes low priority characters simply get unlucky and there's not enough time for them to get in. This is the reason why Mewtwo and Roy couldn't make it to Brawl. Even Pichu was sorta going to come back if pra_mai truly was Plusle & Minun. If Sakurai's current project is a new Smash Bros, it already has the exact development time as Ultimate. No matter when it releases, if Sakurai's project really is Smash, it'll be the Smash with the longest development time ever. To add to this, it's very likely that Bandai Namco are the developers again, allowing them to reuse Ultimate's assets and save themselves even more time. What I'm trying to say is that lack of time may not seemingly be an issue.
Negotiation issues: This is mostly just for the third parties and I'm assuming the reason why Snake was cut in Smash 4. At this point, I really doubt any of the third parties wouldn't want to come back, even Square Enix and Disney. A little known fact, but besides having two DLC characters, Square actually had the most amount of Spirit Events on Ultimate. If anything I expect Square to come back and get even more DLC characters like 2B or maybe even Clive. As for Disney, Sora's status as the ballot winner would probably make his return a priority for Nintendo. Even if he doesn't come back in base, he'd absolutely return as DLC.
I used to think we'll get a big amount of cuts, but I don't know, I've started considering the possibility of there being little to no cuts lately and found myself slowly convincing myself that it could happen.