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Official Next Smash - Speculation & Discussion Thread

The Stoopid Unikorn

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I really didn't expect people to take the SF3 comment so literally...
Because there's the better analogy of "what most big fighting game IPs do with their sequels"

There are more cut characters going from MK11 to MK1, a mere one-game difference, than Smash has had in its entire lifetime.

Street Fighter has also commonly done this since Street Fighter 4, even when discounting the sheer extreme that was SF3.
 
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BrawlX10

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Although unlike the new Pokémon reps Sylux isn't a completely new character created for Prime 4, as he previously appeared in Metroid Prime: Hunters for the DS. I still don't think he's likely unless Smash 6 is a later console release and is not the game Sakurai mentioned in his final YouTube video.
The thing with Sylux, is that while he's not a new character and has existed for like 18 years (Hunters came out in '06 acording to the wiki). I think they would like Sylux to have a Prime 4 inspired moveset than a mostly made up one, this is asuming Sylux is a boss fight in Prime 4, if he isn't and it's a cutscene-only character somehow with no moves shown, i don't think he'll make it, if he's a boss, specially a important boss, i'd say he's very likely for DLC, though.


Sylux being the big bad in Prime 4 won't affect the roster choices too much for the base game, if we're getting a Metroid rep in the next game then it's gonna be Raven Beak or nothing as Dread was released at the right time slightly around the time Sora released. The project plan for Smash 6 would've been finalized like years prior by now, and MP4 is likely releasing this year. Sure they could pull a Greninja and reserve a slot in advance for him as they see prototype footage of Sylux, but I very very very much doubt it. There's no franchise besides Pokemon that gets this cheating luxury of picking a choice years in advance, except for maybe Fire Emblem, but that's a different story lol
Yeah, i don't think Sylux is going to be in the base game at all, he is a DLC pick.
It's either Raven Beak or nothing in the base game like you said. Raven Beak is a cool character, but like i said, im not sure if Sakurai would include him, mostly because he's only in one game, he just doesn't tend to include those characters unless they're from a roating cast.
If there's a character that might break that "rule" is probably Prince Sidon from BOTW imo....even then he's been in 3 games, even if he's not part of the main core cast.
 

Perkilator

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Let’s say that the next Smash game launches with 60-65 characters. That means roughly:
  • 45 veterans
  • 15 unique newcomers
  • 5 Echo Fighters
That would be between what Smash 4 ended on (58 fighters) and what Smash Ultimate launched with (76 fighters, including Echo Fighters).
 

Watuna4343

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I think they could still justify a Ultimate Deluxe with having FP1 and FP2 in the base game, plus bonus content and an extra or two FP, so i personally think it still is possible we get a port, it's the safest and most profitable option to do as well after all, i don't think BC completely erases the posibility of Ult Deluxe, after all WiiU had ports of Twilight Princess which was on the Wii for example.
I would prefer a Smash 6 myself, but a Ult Deluxe is also something nintendo could do.
I heavily, heavily disagree that this would justify this notion. Not only would this effectively set any purchase regarding Ultimate redundant (especially DLC, given that there are 2 versions of Smash Ultimate on the Switch and on one you have to buy characters whereas on the other you don't) but it's also more negotiation, more rights to get fighters from DLC to base roster. That sounds like a lot of work for nothing. Any way you slice it this idea of more Fighter Passes on Ultimate with the already existing DLC being base game is just a Wii U situation waiting to happen. Especially as others said, Switch 2 will be backwards compatible, an Ultimate Deluxe might be a far bigger flop than many think - again, this really sounds like a Wii U situation waiting to happen. Also, 8 years for Ultimate is ALOT of time, like the most spent on a Smash game, you say many people aren't ready for character cuts but on the other side, I say many want a new Smash game. In that sense, I genuinely don't know how profitable it really will be to ask people to buy Ultimate all over again just to get the DLC for base and then buy some more extra content in the form of fighter pass.
 

Watuna4343

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Once again I want to bring up the possibility of keeping over 70% of the character roster retained, but taking big axes and cleavers to the stage roster instead.
I'll ask the armchair developers here--would a drastically smaller stage count positively affect the number of veteran characters returning, or would it be negligible in terms of time and resources? I'm willing to sacrifice stage variety for character variety to flourish further.
How much room will that leave for newcomers and new stages? Or new content in general. 70% of the roster is still a lot of work and it also won't allow for new stages. Believe it or not stages are part of the content too, to keep 70% of the newcomers and then take big axes on the stages, is still a lot of veterans to bring back and inevitably 3rd parties in there too, so rights involved in that too - that leaves very little room for actual newcomer content and even less so for new stages and thus will make the new game more of a cheap knock-off for Ultimate.
 

DynamicSmasher

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The thing with Sylux, is that while he's not a new character and has existed for like 18 years (Hunters came out in '06 acording to the wiki). I think they would like Sylux to have a Prime 4 inspired moveset than a mostly made up one, this is asuming Sylux is a boss fight in Prime 4, if he isn't and it's a cutscene-only character somehow with no moves shown, i don't think he'll make it, if he's a boss, specially a important boss, i'd say he's very likely for DLC, though.



Yeah, i don't think Sylux is going to be in the base game at all, he is a DLC pick.
It's either Raven Beak or nothing in the base game like you said. Raven Beak is a cool character, but like i said, im not sure if Sakurai would include him, mostly because he's only in one game, he just doesn't tend to include those characters unless they're from a roating cast.
If there's a character that might break that "rule" is probably Prince Sidon from BOTW imo....even then he's been in 3 games, even if he's not part of the main core cast.
I doubt Sylux would be a cutscene only character. They've hyped him up too much for that. Well, unless he's actually the big bad of the second Metroid Prime trilogy, so we get to fight him in Prime 6. Sometime around 2037(which will also be roundabouts when the next Kid Icarus game will come out.)

I've mostly given up hope for a new non-triforce Zelda character by now. I had hoped for Midna, for Ghirahim, Skull Kid, or Impa, but I think Sakurai is satsfied with using Link/Zelda(and Shiek)/Ganondorf, while updating them occassionaly to represent new releases.
 

Gengar84

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Not me. I'm no fan of SF6's 'realistic' graphics. But I like SF5's 'Slightly uprezzed version of SF4's 'plastic action figure'' graphics even less.

SF6 looks better than SF5. Just not in the way I wanted it to.

You mean the thing that killed the SF franchise for a decade?

Smash is never going to have a "SF3 moment". Because there's never going to be a Smash where Mario and Luigi are the only returning characters.

Something you can't prove without knowing how much it would have sold if it had had every Pokemon.

There are more obscure games that have Spirits.

Frankly with some 1500+ Spirits in Ultimate, there's no excuse for any Nintendo game to not have at least one Spirit.

Justice for Pro Wrestling and StarTropics! Because reasons!
Yeah, that’s true. I didn’t really care for any of the 3D Street Fighter’s aesthetics to be honest. Looking at SFV again, yeah, it’s not great. However, I appreciate them at least trying style. I never really cared for the trend of trying to make everything photorealistic when it used to be stylized like SFVI and FFVIIR/AC. I think my favorite aesthetics for fighting games are the ArcSysWorks games and 2XKO.
 
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Hadokeyblade

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Yeah, that’s true. I didn’t really care for any of the 3D Street Fighter’s aesthetics to be honest. Looking at SFV again, yeah, it’s not great. However, I appreciate them at least trying style. I never really cared for the trend of trying to make everything photorealistic when it used to be stylized like SFVI and FFVIIR/AC. I think my favorite aesthetics for fighting games are the ArcSysWorka games and 2XKO.
Street fighter characters didn't look good in 3D until Smash.

A good reason to want Chun-Li.
 

Gengar84

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Street fighter characters didn't look good in 3D until Smash.

A good reason to want Chun-Li.
Yeah, Smash definitely has my favorite models for Ryu, Ken, and Guile. It also has my favorites for Cloud and Sephiroth. I just like Smash’s general esthetic more than the current direction both Street Fighter and Finsl Fantasy are going for. My absolute favorites are still the original Nomura character art for FFVII but Smash has my favorite 3D game models. I’d say Ultimate also has my favorite Ganondorf too.
 
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BritishGuy54

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Let’s say that the next Smash game launches with 60-65 characters. That means roughly:
  • 45 veterans
  • 15 unique newcomers
  • 5 Echo Fighters
That would be between what Smash 4 ended on (58 fighters) and what Smash Ultimate launched with (76 fighters, including Echo Fighters).
There’s a lot of debate on who exactly those 45 veterans will be.
Obviously, who I will dub the ‘Core 12’ are absolute shoe-ins, being:
:ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultsamus::ultkirby::ultpikachu:
:ultmarth::ultwario::ultolimar::ultvillager::ultshulk::ultinkling:

If Smash was made today, besides maybe Wario, all twelve of these guys would make it in. I see no reason to remove ANY of them.

Apart from that, your obvious supporting picks would return too, both old and new, such as:
:ultluigi::ultpeach::ultbowser::ultyoshi::ultdiddy::ultzelda::ultganondorf::ultridley:
:ultmetaknight::ultkingdedede::ultcharizard::ultgreninja::ultrobin::ultbyleth::ultisabelle::ultpyra::ultmythra:
Characters like Ridley, Greninja, Isabelle, and Pyra/Mythra are a good lineup for future mainstays.

… That’s already over half of the veterans I can see coming back. We’re at 28 for now.

Let’s add another group of likely veterans, being your single game and/or legacy representatives.
:ultfox::ultfalcon::ultgnw::ultpit::ultminmin

More supplemental veterans. I think these guys likely have just one more game in them before being cut in the game after Smash 6 if current trends continue.
:ultness::ultike::ultlucario::ultlittlemac:

A 50/50 selection here for Mario and Pokémon though. No idea what they’ll do here. If there’s any previous cut I could see coming back, it’s Mewtwo, but I wouldn’t put all of my eggs in that basket.
(:ultrosalina:OR:ultbowserjr:) (:ultmewtwo:OR:ultincineroar:)
Right now, I’m feeling Rosalina and Incineroar to return.

And that just leaves the third parties, being…
:ultsonic::ultryu::ultmegaman::ultpacman::ultkazuya::ultsteve:

It does suck, yes. But these are generally the faces I could see returning. 45 veterans. We’ll probably see more in DLC, but here we are.

Looking at newcomers, I think my standard selection works out, bar a few changes.
  • Paper Mario (Super Mario)
  • Toy Link (The Legend of Zelda)
  • Ring Fit Trainee (Ring Fit Adventure)
  • Mio (Xenoblade Chronicles)
  • Pearl & Marina (Splatoon)
  • Isaac (Golden Sun)
  • Oatchi (Pikmin)
  • Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
  • Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog)
  • Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
  • Officer Howard (Astral Chain)
  • Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
  • Meowscarada (Pokémon)
  • Alear (Fire Emblem)
  • Waluigi (Super Mario)
15 unique base game newcomers. Maybe not as exciting as Ultimate’s, but it’s good for what it is.

And finally, the dread word Smash fans don’t like to hear… CLONES. First of all, veteran echoes.
:ultdaisy:, alongside either :ultlucina: OR:ultdarksamus:.

In terms of new echoes, here’s a list.
  • Octoling (Splatoon), for :ultinkling:
  • Nia (Xenoblade Chronicles), for Mio
  • Funky Kong (Donkey Kong), for :ultdk:
Yeah, this selection might not be much, but it’s at least fresh. It’s just how I could squeeze my top picks for Smash 6 into a roster smaller than Ultimate’s.
 
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Diddy Kong

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I doubt Sylux will make it honestly. I think the very reason Raven Beak is more recent and from a more traditional type of Metroid game which is also highly successful to the mainstream, on top of being a popular request that they will just simply pick this one character and be done with Metroid.

We already have a representative of the Prime series in Dark Samus too. They can just "Luigify" her and call it a day. 5 Metroid fighters seems more than enough.
 

Wonder Smash

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Not me. I'm no fan of SF6's 'realistic' graphics. But I like SF5's 'Slightly uprezzed version of SF4's 'plastic action figure'' graphics even less.

SF6 looks better than SF5. Just not in the way I wanted it to.
Personally, I hope they go back to SFIV's style. The series having a comic book or an anime look fits so much better than having photorealistic look.

Also, the way I look a Street Fighter artstyle over the years is like this:

Street Fighter 1 and II games - Manga-style. Especially in II's case, where it resembles series like Fist of the North Star and JoJo's Bizarre Adventure. Love that look.
Street Fighter Alpha and III games - Anime-style. This was taken from the SFII anime movie. Love that.
Street Fighter IV and V - American comic book-style. That's the vibe I get from it. Not bad.
Street Fighter 6 - Photorealistic. Not the look I prefer for this series.
 
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Diddy Kong

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There’s a lot of debate on who exactly those 45 veterans will be.
Obviously, who I will dub the ‘Core 12’ are absolute shoe-ins, being:
:ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultsamus::ultkirby::ultpikachu:
:ultmarth::ultwario::ultolimar::ultvillager::ultshulk::ultinkling:

If Smash was made today, besides maybe Wario, all twelve of these guys would make it in. I see no reason to remove ANY of them.

Apart from that, your obvious supporting picks would return too, both old and new, such as:
:ultluigi::ultpeach::ultbowser::ultyoshi::ultdiddy::ultzelda::ultganondorf::ultridley:
:ultmetaknight::ultkingdedede::ultcharizard::ultgreninja::ultrobin::ultbyleth::ultisabelle::ultpyra::ultmythra:
Characters like Ridley, Greninja, Isabelle, and Pyra/Mythra are a good lineup for future mainstays.

… That’s already over half of the veterans I can see coming back. We’re at 28 for now.

Let’s add another group of likely veterans, being your single game and/or legacy representatives.
:ultfox::ultfalcon::ultgnw::ultpit::ultminmin

More supplemental veterans. I think these guys likely have just one more game in them before being cut in the game after Smash 6 if current trends continue.
:ultness::ultike::ultlucario::ultlittlemac:

A 50/50 selection here for Mario and Pokémon though. No idea what they’ll do here. If there’s any previous cut I could see coming back, it’s Mewtwo, but I wouldn’t put all of my eggs in that basket.
(:ultrosalina:OR:ultbowserjr:) (:ultmewtwo:OR:ultincineroar:)
Right now, I’m feeling Rosalina and Incineroar to return.

And that just leaves the third parties, being…
:ultsonic::ultryu::ultmegaman::ultpacman::ultkazuya::ultsteve:

It does suck, yes. But these are generally the faces I could see returning. 45 veterans. We’ll probably see more in DLC, but here we are.

Looking at newcomers, I think my standard selection works out, bar a few changes.
  • Paper Mario (Super Mario)
  • Toy Link (The Legend of Zelda)
  • Ring Fit Trainee (Ring Fit Adventure)
  • Mio (Xenoblade Chronicles)
  • Pearl & Marina (Splatoon)
  • Isaac (Golden Sun)
  • Oatchi (Pikmin)
  • Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
  • Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog)
  • Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
  • Officer Howard (Astral Chain)
  • Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
  • Meowscarada (Pokémon)
  • Alear (Fire Emblem)
  • Waluigi (Super Mario)
15 unique base game newcomers. Maybe not as exciting as Ultimate’s, but it’s good for what it is.

And finally, the dread word Smash fans don’t like to hear… CLONES. First of all, veteran echoes.
:ultdaisy:, alongside either :ultlucina: OR:ultdarksamus:.

In terms of new echoes, here’s a list.
  • Octoling (Splatoon), for :ultinkling:
  • Nia (Xenoblade Chronicles), for Mio
  • Funky Kong (Donkey Kong), for :ultdk:
Yeah, this selection might not be much, but it’s at least fresh. It’s just how I could squeeze my top picks for Smash 6 into a roster smaller than Ultimate’s.
I agree with your chosen veterans for the most part. You applied logic. That's rare.

Newcomers are good except for Toy Link. I don't have much faith in that character.
 

ninjahmos

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OK, I think we've discussed this before, but I still have to ask…

Is a small Link really necessary for Smash, even if he plays more similarly to Link's old moveset?
 

Diddy Kong

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OK, I think we've discussed this before, but I still have to ask…

Is a small Link really necessary for Smash, even if he plays more similarly to Link's old moveset?
I think so yeah. According to Sakurai too.

A small Link has been a staple since Melee. Even got updated into a new character with Brawl and that version stuck in Smash ever since.

So I think it's a staple in Smash.
 

Perkilator

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OK, I think we've discussed this before, but I still have to ask…

Is a small Link really necessary for Smash, even if he plays more similarly to Link's old moveset?
I for one think we can (and should) go without a small Link for once, especially if there's gonna be drastic cuts.
 

Diddy Kong

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Toy Link would probably just be a Link’s Awkning rep if he gets added since he hasn’t been a protagonist yet in a completely new game.
I honestly don't think this character makes sense to include. This version of Link doesn't even appear as steadily as Toon Link did. And let's not forget the impact the artstyle had on the series.

I say keep Toon Link. And I'd go as far as to include the Hero of Time :linkmelee: as a Echo to Link :ultlink:.

That's technically the same 3 Links as in Ultimate, but one is a straight up Echo.
 
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Dukefire

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I doubt Sylux will make it honestly. I think the very reason Raven Beak is more recent and from a more traditional type of Metroid game which is also highly successful to the mainstream, on top of being a popular request that they will just simply pick this one character and be done with Metroid.

We already have a representative of the Prime series in Dark Samus too. They can just "Luigify" her and call it a day. 5 Metroid fighters seems more than enough.
I guess that all depends what sakurai decides to use. Raven Beak can bring in an ACTUAL Chozo warrior that Samus was trained under (Also, could change Samus suit to the Metroid suit as the final smash) or a Sylux that isn't that known yet with weaponry that is more cybernetic with a deep vendetta against the Galactic Federation.

Metroid Dread release date: October 8, 2021
Metroid Prime 4: Beyond Release date: sometime in 2025
Smash Ultimate Sora reveal and last DLC "The Last Key": October 5, 2021
 
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Gengar84

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OK, I think we've discussed this before, but I still have to ask…

Is a small Link really necessary for Smash, even if he plays more similarly to Link's old moveset?
A lot of people really like having a smaller Link but I don’t personally care about having them. I would prefer adult Link to be more of an amalgamation rather than specifically BotW or TotK and get his hookshot back.
 

Diddy Kong

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A lot of people really like having a smaller Link but I don’t personally care about having them. I would prefer adult Link to be more of an amalgamation rather than specifically BotW or TotK and get his hookshot back.
Many feel this way. Hence I think that a Echo of said Link would be a nice way to solve this. :linkmelee:

Basically just let Young Link grab the Master Sword. Same joke as "Pichu from Melee evolved in Brawl Pikachu" basically.

Only if we're getting a big roster yet again of course. Otherwise I'd say, keep Link BotW and TotK orientated but boost his speed significantly so that he's indeed a amalgamation version of all Links previously in Smash.

And then add the Hero of Time Echo anyway
 

Dukefire

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A lot of people really like having a smaller Link but I don’t personally care about having them. I would prefer adult Link to be more of an amalgamation rather than specifically BotW or TotK and get his hookshot back.
Remember that Zelda in Link between Worlds was like a smaller model for the game's style in the 3DS. Sakurai did manage to bring that look into Smash.
supersmashbrosultimatezeldainfographic.png

He can find a way with characters that have a smaller appearance from their game with creative liberty. Of course, it will take time to find a compromise of Both Worlds to their origins and Smash Bros twist
 

Guynamednelson

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If we can acknowledge Ganondorf, despite being a bottom-tier Falcon clone, still has a popular playstyle that warrants Black Shadow being added to preserve it in the event he gets decloned I don't see why we can't acknowledge there are people who prefer either small Link's playstyle.

At least Young Link isn't an eternal bottom-tier with an arguably inappropriate moveset.
 

Diddy Kong

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I feel it should just be Link and Toon Link like in Brawl and Smash 4 if they want more then one.
Yes. But, since Link has changed quite a bit and might undergo more changes based on Tears of the Kingdom, why not the Hero of Time as Echo Fighter ?

Outside of Impa and a reworked Ganondorf and reworked Zelda, what else is really actually likely in terms of Zelda newcomers? Might as well take this extra version of Link then.

Especially since I think we could probably have more of these types of characters maybe. Say? What about an actual Fire Mario or Ice Beam Samus? Fighter ability Kirby?
 

ninjahmos

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This has probably been said many times before, but they can't keep using Falcondorf, and I don't think it should be transferred to Black Shadow if he gets in, even if he were to be an Echo or a semi-clone of Falcon.

I honestly think he'd look pretty cool with his own unique moveset.

 
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Louie G.

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I used to bat pretty hard for Toon Link, but unfortunately I just don’t find him all that fun to play. Could be fixed, but idk if I want that kind of effort dealt toward these two when they ought to be easier adds. Young Link feels better to play but also feels more redundant.

I’d still be inclined to save Toon Link out of the two, to reflect a completely different side of the series, but the “Toon” games have been dormant for a little bit unlike with Brawl / Smash 4 where they were still kicking. Perhaps Young Link feels like the better pull if they add Skull Kid or end up doing some kind of OOT remake. Toy Link exists as an alternative but doesn’t excite me all that much. Feels like kind of a fandom thing and not quite what I anticipate Sakurai doing.

I’m torn on how necessary it is. On paper I would say no it’s not. In execution I think the more Link is modernized to account for BOTW / TOTK, the more justification there is to have a more classically designed Link in tow. The solution may be to just improve on alt costumes and give Link a better green tunic option, but chances are we’ll still be hookshot-less next game. For whatever that’s worth. I’d like if Link became more of a composite again but I don’t see that happening until Wild era is well into the rear view.
 

Guynamednelson

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Young Link feels better to play
For that reason I'd say it's Toon Link that's the more redundant one.

And before anyone asks, no, I'm not fanboying the 10-year-old Hero of Time here. While I may have the nuclear-hot take that YL is NOT redundant in official Smash, I think he is in Project M builds that add him, because PM already changed both of the Brawl Links to be more YL-esque.
 

Diddy Kong

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This has probably been said many times before, but they can't keep using Falcondorf, and I don't think it should be transferred to Black Shadow if he gets in, even if he were to be an Echo or a semi-clone of Falcon.

I honestly think he'd look pretty cool with his own unique moveset.

This idea doesn't hold water anymore. Ultimate gave Ganondorf sword Smash attacks. That wouldn't work on Black Shadow.

Not that the idea was ever any good anyway.
 

Arcanir

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It's been said before, but it's kind of sad how Black Shadow's only relevance in Smash discussions tends to revolve around him taking Ganondorf's moveset.

+R43wdaemember that Zelda in Link between Worlds was like a smaller model for the game's style in the 3DS. Sakurai did manage to bring that look into Smash.
View attachment 398822
He can find a way with characters that have a smaller appearance from their game with creative liberty. Of course, it will take time to find a compromise of Both Worlds to their origins and Smash Bros twist
As an aside it's funny to look back on the discourse around Zelda's new design. As said in the image it definitely took cues from both games, but many were insistent she only came from Link to the Past until Sakurai cleared it up later.
 

SubspaceJigglypuff

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SF3 Smash with only Mario and Luigi returning will never happen. Everyone knows Captain Falcon and Fox are the real mascots of Smash.

Let’s say that the next Smash game launches with 60-65 characters. That means roughly:
  • 45 veterans
  • 15 unique newcomers
  • 5 Echo Fighters
That would be between what Smash 4 ended on (58 fighters) and what Smash Ultimate launched with (76 fighters, including Echo Fighters).
Eh **** it, I'll try the challenge. Partially. Doing the math, this is 60 non-echo fighters + 5 echos for 65 fighters total.

The Roster
leave me lone.png

I chose 40 first party vets and 5 third party vets for nice even symmetry, and 3 vet echos, assuming we'd get newcomer echos.

Let's talk about the first parties first. The first 12 ( :ultmario: to :ultbowser: ) are ordered; consider them your modern OG 12, they're the current 11 headlining franchises of the Switch era (+Bowser 'cause there was room for one more)

Tier 2 is every other random that returned. I split them in four groups;
  • The other core characters of the headliners (:ultbyleth: to :ultzelda: )
  • Some legacy series/Mario spinoffs (:ultfalcon: to :ultwario: )
  • The Miis (:ultbrawler: to :ultswordfighter: ) as the final three first parties, since every character they take assets from would have been finished now.
  • The five lucky third party vets (:ulthero3: to :ultsonic: )

They are not ordered exactly in priority, I was too lazy to do that, I just put them in alphabetical order in their respective groups. This is a tight squeeze that unfortunately leaves little room for fighters outside the headliner series; not even every first party series is able to make it back. If could choose 5 more, they'd be :ultminmin , :ultduckhunt: , :ultwiifittrainer: , :ulticeclimbers: and :ultrob: in roughly that order. With such tight space, they would have started encroaching either on characters like :ultmetaknight: , :ultike: and :ultlucario: , or the third parties.

The third parties were similarly limited. With only five, I unfortunately had to stick to the essentials. Except for :ulthero3:. I figured at least one Ultimate third party should stay; this meant :ultbayonetta: had to take the bullet. I also considered :ultsimon: and :ultsteve: for the spot, and I still am. Consider Hero a placeholder; right now it's him because Japan sure loves their Dragon Quests and I didn't want to deprive them of their medically prescribed DQ dose.

As for newcomers, sorry, can't help you there. 🤷 Maybe 12-13 first party newcomers and 2-3 more third parties, can't be bothered to think of anything more specific.

Closing thoughts: I am 100% confident there'll be more than 60 fighters now.

OK, I think we've discussed this before, but I still have to ask…

Is a small Link really necessary for Smash, even if he plays more similarly to Link's old moveset?
I don't mind Toon Link's existence since he's a simple semi-clone and he's a charming lil guy. I would say he has his value, and Sakurai seems to think so too, but pretty much everyone in Smash has value, and he's still a second Link at the end of the day. So I tend to place him in the lower half of priority regardless; my criteria is "can I think of 15-20 first parties I'd prioritize him over?" and for Toon Link, I can't.

I could still see him sticking around, but tbh I feel like the two Link tradition won't survive heavier cuts. If other popular characters get snipped and Toon Link stays, I feel people would be a lot less fond of him.
 
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SMAASH! Puppy

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There’s a lot of debate on who exactly those 45 veterans will be.
Obviously, who I will dub the ‘Core 12’ are absolute shoe-ins, being:
:ultmario::ultdk::ultlink::ultsamus::ultkirby::ultpikachu:
:ultmarth::ultwario::ultolimar::ultvillager::ultshulk::ultinkling:

If Smash was made today, besides maybe Wario, all twelve of these guys would make it in. I see no reason to remove ANY of them.

Apart from that, your obvious supporting picks would return too, both old and new, such as:
:ultluigi::ultpeach::ultbowser::ultyoshi::ultdiddy::ultzelda::ultganondorf::ultridley:
:ultmetaknight::ultkingdedede::ultcharizard::ultgreninja::ultrobin::ultbyleth::ultisabelle::ultpyra::ultmythra:
Characters like Ridley, Greninja, Isabelle, and Pyra/Mythra are a good lineup for future mainstays.

… That’s already over half of the veterans I can see coming back. We’re at 28 for now.

Let’s add another group of likely veterans, being your single game and/or legacy representatives.
:ultfox::ultfalcon::ultgnw::ultpit::ultminmin

More supplemental veterans. I think these guys likely have just one more game in them before being cut in the game after Smash 6 if current trends continue.
:ultness::ultike::ultlucario::ultlittlemac:

A 50/50 selection here for Mario and Pokémon though. No idea what they’ll do here. If there’s any previous cut I could see coming back, it’s Mewtwo, but I wouldn’t put all of my eggs in that basket.
(:ultrosalina:OR:ultbowserjr:) (:ultmewtwo:OR:ultincineroar:)
Right now, I’m feeling Rosalina and Incineroar to return.

And that just leaves the third parties, being…
:ultsonic::ultryu::ultmegaman::ultpacman::ultkazuya::ultsteve:

It does suck, yes. But these are generally the faces I could see returning. 45 veterans. We’ll probably see more in DLC, but here we are.

Looking at newcomers, I think my standard selection works out, bar a few changes.
  • Paper Mario (Super Mario)
  • Toy Link (The Legend of Zelda)
  • Ring Fit Trainee (Ring Fit Adventure)
  • Mio (Xenoblade Chronicles)
  • Pearl & Marina (Splatoon)
  • Isaac (Golden Sun)
  • Oatchi (Pikmin)
  • Chun-Li (Street Fighter)
  • Shadow (Sonic the Hedgehog)
  • Tom Nook (Animal Crossing)
  • Officer Howard (Astral Chain)
  • Bandana Waddle Dee (Kirby)
  • Meowscarada (Pokémon)
  • Alear (Fire Emblem)
  • Waluigi (Super Mario)
15 unique base game newcomers. Maybe not as exciting as Ultimate’s, but it’s good for what it is.

And finally, the dread word Smash fans don’t like to hear… CLONES. First of all, veteran echoes.
:ultdaisy:, alongside either :ultlucina: OR:ultdarksamus:.

In terms of new echoes, here’s a list.
  • Octoling (Splatoon), for :ultinkling:
  • Nia (Xenoblade Chronicles), for Mio
  • Funky Kong (Donkey Kong), for :ultdk:
Yeah, this selection might not be much, but it’s at least fresh. It’s just how I could squeeze my top picks for Smash 6 into a roster smaller than Ultimate’s.
I mostly agree with this, but I would make 1 change: :ultpokemontrainer:

I highly doubt Pokémon Trainer will get cut for space, as they're a core pillar of Pokémon's representation next to Pikachu, which means that were stuck playing around Squirtle & Ivysaur as well. With this lineup, I think the best cuts to make room would be Robin and Mewtwo/Incineroar. Robin because Lucina is here to rep Awakening, and Mewtwo/Incineroar because they're Pokémon.

There are a couple other things like the fact that I don't think we'll ever lose Lucario, Ness, Fox, or Captain Falcon, but those are just nitpicks since the focus is on the selections themselves.

...Crap I forgot about Miis. If they have to be included (and I suspect they will be) they'll kinda screw things up because too many of these characters are important adds. I think the only doable sacrifices here are Little Mac, Rosalina & Luma/Bowser Jr., and Kazuya.

EDIT: I also found it mildly amusing that you got away with cutting King K. Rool scott free.
 
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Þe 1 → Way

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I feel like there being two Links makes more sense than a lot of other clones like Doc Mario since they are actually distinct individuals who've gone on separate adventures, like a revolving door cast based around the same 4 characters.

In terms of gameplay, I think Toon Link is just the more unique counterpart visually and gameplay wise between him and Young Link. Since next game is probably doing moveset redesigns, there's a solid opportunity to let both Links off into new territory, allowing their existing differences to make them play in ways the other can't, while still clearly sharing similar attacks.
 

Dukefire

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I mostly agree with this, but I would make 1 change: :ultpokemontrainer:

I highly doubt Pokémon Trainer will get cut for space, as they're a core pillar of Pokémon's representation next to Pikachu, which means that were stuck playing around Squirtle & Ivysaur as well. With this lineup, I think the best cuts to make room would be Robin and Mewtwo/Incineroar. Robin because Lucina is here to rep Awakening, and Mewtwo/Incineroar because they're Pokémon.

There are a couple other things like the fact that I don't think we'll ever lose Lucario, Ness, Fox, or Captain Falcon, but those are just nitpicks since the focus is on the selections themselves.

...Crap I forgot about Miis. If they have to be included (and I suspect they will be) they'll kinda screw things up because too many of these characters are important adds. I think the only doable sacrifices here are Little Mac, Rosalina & Luma/Bowser Jr., and Kazuya.

EDIT: I also found it mildly amusing that you got away with cutting King K. Rool scott free.
Little Mac makes sense since Punch Out hasn't seen another title since the Wii.
Kazuya might stay if Bandai continues to assist development.
Rosalina & Luma: that's iffy since she has been appearing in almost all mario games since Super Mario Galaxy's release.
Bowser Jr. & the Koopalings: Possible
 

Gorgonzales

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I like Toon Link as a concept but I really wish he had SOMETHING that was more unique.

Giving him the Deku Leaf after up special and Skull Hammer for like side special or something would instantly make him more distinct and fun to play. And that's just two moves, I think it's totally doable without draining resources from other characters.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Little Mac makes sense since Punch Out hasn't seen another title since the Wii.
Kazuya might stay if Bandai continues to assist development.
Rosalina & Luma: that's iffy since she has been appearing in almost all mario games since Super Mario Galaxy's release.
Bowser Jr. & the Koopalings: Possible
This is a very specific hypothetical, so in this line of logic, these cuts are what make the most sense in comparison to like, Bowser, Ness, or Pit. Actually, you probably could cut Pit in this scenario, but I think doing so would favor seniority too much.

Also Rosalina & Luma has only appeared in spin-offs since Super Mario 3D World, so if we're going off appearances, they don't really have any that the devs would even look to since they heavily prioritize mainline appearances. In that sense, Bowser Jr. kinda blows them out of the water. Things change when you take into acount female representation and unique moveset concepts into account (which I'm sure Sakurai does), but as far as relevance goes, Bowser Jr. wins handily.
 
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