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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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True Blue Warrior

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Just for fun, I took out any clone/deriative characters, leaving only the fully unique characters from each game.

And yeah, Ultimate had only five 100% unique newcomers that weren't cripped from other fighters. Isabelle is listed as one of the six "non-echo fighters" and even she's just as unique as Ken is, as they're both semi-clones.
You forgot to remove Toon Link.
 

7NATOR

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Just for fun, I took out any clone/deriative characters, leaving only the fully unique characters from each game.

And yeah, Ultimate had only five 100% unique newcomers that weren't cripped from other fighters. Isabelle is listed as one of the six "non-echo fighters" and even she's just as unique as Ken is, as they're both semi-clones.
I would also like to Add that this game came with the least amount of New Stages in Base game, with only 4, with only 2 of those 4 being for Newcomers

So Characters from New Franchises like Isaac, Any Rhythm Heaven character, etc was at a Disadvantage on that front too. I think the claim of "They would have been added in Base game" is Very Dubious, especially if we're talking unique Characters.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Remember what I said about goal posts?

This is the stuff that annoys me.
I don’t see how this is moving goalposts.

Unless you’re implying there’s only one way to market a game. I specifically mentioned that they were marketed differently, but marketed picks nonetheless.

They released Min Min with content in ARMS as a game, to drive up interest in the game. I don’t see why that’s such a crazy claim when it’s exactly what they did.

Surely it could have been because of CoViD, but they left fans with months to drum up ideas of what the pick would be, months of social media discussion to...drum up interest.

I really don’t think it’s that crazy of a take.
 
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Shinuto

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What are the chances of Shantae getting in? I'd like to see all the reactions from the various youtubers I watch for Smash content, alot of them hardly ever or never bring her up so to see such an unexpected character from their perspectives would be really interesting, it would change how they themselves view potential picks after her inclusion.
 

GoodGrief741

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Dragon Quest is the grand-daddy of JRPGs and one of Japan's biggest game franchises period. Minecraft is the best-selling video game in the world. Terry brought along an entire game company's own crossover into the fold. The "reception" section of the Wikipedia article for Persona 5 opens by pointing out that it "has been cited as one of the greatest role-playing games of all time" with five citations.

I fail to see how these are any less than some of the objectively biggest picks available.

Edited in follow-up I forgot to mention: Banjo is the only real exception from the DLC 3rd parties so far, but he's formerly a Nintendo character.
Persona 5 is objectively not the biggest RPG game not in Smash, nor is Persona or Megami Tensei as a whole the largest RPG franchise not in Smash. Fatal Fury and King of Fighters are nowhere near the biggest fighting game franchises not in Smash. You've already covered Banjo-Kazooie. Byleth and Min Min are certainly not the biggest first party characters they could have added, both from sales and popularity standpoints. So only two of the 7 characters we've had so far fit that profile of "they're looking for the objectively biggest characters and franchises". Two out of seven isn't the pattern, it's the exception. To pretend otherwise is absurd.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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Remember what I said about goal posts?

This is the stuff that annoys me.
I don't think the realization that being picked for marketing purposes doesn't just apply to characters who were picked before their game even came out counts as moving the goalpost. It was always true, it just didn't occur to people yet.
 

Arcanir

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To be honest, I feel people are too critical of the ARMs tournament promotion. Yes they used Smash as a means to help push the game, but so did other characters like Hero with DQXIS or the Smash 4 newcomers (even DH, remember the VC release being tied to the character?). Capitalizing on a character's presence doesn't automatically make them a shill pick, it just means the company sees value in pushing the game alongside the character. Min Min is little different, and I feel she's only focused on to push a narrative.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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I don't think the realization that being picked for marketing purposes doesn't just apply to characters who were picked before their game even came out counts as moving the goalpost. It was always true, it just didn't occur to people yet.
And yet somehow people still don’t think just anyone can be picked for marketing purposes going by that kind of argument? If Min Min can be a “shill pick”, anyone can.
 

MooMew64

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And yet somehow people still don’t think just anyone can be picked for marketing purposes going by that kind of argument? If Min Min can be a “shill pick”, anyone can.
I mean, technically, Smash itself semi-functions as a giant ad. A really dang good one, but an ad nonetheless.

Nintendo 100% uses Smash as a marketing platform IMO.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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Even if Min Min wasn’t a “shill pick” (I don’t like that term, but I still think it applies to an extent), she still supports the fact that first party picks have largely been mascots/protagonists if they are the first from their series in Smash.

As ARMS has an ensemble cast, Sakurai pointed out that while everybody thought Spring Man would be the pick because of this, “they’re all protagonists!”

The mere mention of this by the man himself indicates that it is considered in character selection. If things continue as suggested, does not being a mascot/protagonist have an impact on this DLC season? I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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And yet somehow people still don’t think just anyone can be picked for marketing purposes going by that kind of argument? If Min Min can be a “shill pick”, anyone can.
Not really no. Yes, every character is technically an advertisement for their series, but their series does have to have something going on that Nintendo would want to promote to get in on that merit. Like, would you seriously argue that someone from Eternal Darkness would be picked for marketing purposes?
 

7NATOR

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What are the chances of Shantae getting in? I'd like to see all the reactions from the various youtubers I watch for Smash content, alot of them hardly ever or never bring her up so to see such an unexpected character from their perspectives would be really interesting, it would change how they themselves view potential picks after her inclusion.
Depends

She's a Requested character that has good amount of Fans on Nintendo Platforms. She has very interesting Design and Mechanics. Their company is Heavily in favor of them being in. Matt is keeping quiet again on Shantae in Smash, as evident by that AMA on Reddit.

Also Unlike Other Indie games/Franchises, Her Franchise actually has multiple games and has been shown to survive as a Franchise and Brand. Most of the Popular Indies at the moment are Usually 1 game only or Expansions released. Touhou is the other popular Exception (There's also FNAF, but I doubt that as Playable to be honest)

I do think she has a good amount of Cons though

-Compared to other Indie Franchises like Undertale, Shovel Knight, Cuphead, her games are more niche when we factor in Sales. I don't even need to factor in Minecraft into this either

-From what Matt said about how Shantae got included as a Spirit, and that Shantae's Spirit I believe is the last one listed in the data, It seems She wasn't initially on Nintendo's Radar until Matt sent them PNGs. Compare this to Shovel Knight who got a whole Assist Trophy

-Shantae Would be hard to make and implement as a character. Shantae currently does not have an Official 3D Model, so Sakurai and the Team would have to make a Whole New Model, and also have to make the other assets like Stages and Background characters from Scratch. Because of her Animal Transformations, This will be more Modeling and Animating than usual, like how They had to model Arsene for Joker, but even more than that becuase there are Multiple Animal Transformations

There's probably more to mention, but that's my gist. I find it a little hard to believe in Playable Shantae because Her Franchise isn't the biggest, and it will take alot of Work to add her in, with needing to Model not only her, but her animal Transformations, along with Animating all of that. In Comparison, Min-Min and Steve's Model were just Copied from their home games. This also doesn't take into account the Balancing and such
 
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True Blue Warrior

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Not really no. Yes, every character is technically an advertisement for their series, but their series does have to have something going on that Nintendo would want to promote to get in on that merit. Like, would you seriously argue that someone from Eternal Darkness would be picked for marketing purposes?
No, because that’s a franchise without a future unlike the likes of Donkey Kong and Kirby who are guaranteed to get new games due to the success of their recent Switch titles. Eternal Darkness is not exactly the best example to use even if a new game were to be announced right now, a “rep” from that game would be as unlikely as ever. Same if we got a new Advance Wars or Golden Sun title (barring Isaac being chosen as a “fan pick”).


Even if Min Min wasn’t a “shill pick” (I don’t like that term, but I still think it applies to an extent), she still supports the fact that first party picks have largely been mascots/protagonists if they are the first from their series in Smash.
That’s if we are talking about new franchises. There is nothing indicating we couldn’t get characters from veteran franchises.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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Oy.

I’m just gonna say this. Is Min Min a pure marketing pick? No. I didn’t say she was. I said she was marketed differently than the other marketing picks.

If you’re gonna tell me that adding a demo, and a 3 month session of getting tons of people talking about ARMS for three months wasn’t a part of a plan to push the game whatsoever, I’m just gonna have to disagree with you.

It’s a unique situation that no other pick would be in. It’s really not that big of a deal and not that crazy of a suggestion. Was Min Min meant purely for pushing ARMS? Probably not. But does ARMS push the Switch first party library as a brand, and offer a great opportunity to push ARMS despite being a 3 year old game? Undeniably yes.

No, because that’s a franchise without a future unlike the likes of Donkey Kong and Kirby who are guaranteed to get new games due to the success of their recent Switch titles. Eternal Darkness is not exactly the best example to use even if a new game were to be announced right now, a “rep” from that game would be as unlikely as ever. Same if we got a new Advance Wars or Golden Sun title (barring Isaac being chosen as a “fan pick”).




That’s if we are talking about new franchises. There is nothing indicating we couldn’t get characters from veteran franchises.
True, but when you look at DLC a picks they have historically gone with mascots/protagonists from their respective game or series. It’d be a deviation from the “norm” so to speak if it were to happen. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen!
 

TheCJBrine

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Technically any character addition can market a game they may want to draw attention to.

Dixie Kong? "Go play some more Tropical Freeze!/New DKC game is coming!"

Waluigi? "Go play Mario Tennis Aces!/New Mario Sports/Kart/Party/whatever game incoming!"

Geno? "Go play Super Mario RPG: Legend of the Seven Stars on the SNES Online or SNES Classic!/New SMRPG remake/sequel!" (the ladder if the rumors are true)

Bandana Dee? "Go play more Kirby Star Allies!/New 3D Kirby game is on its way!" (the ladder if that Kirby Fighters 2 file stuff really does suggest a 3D Kirby game is being worked on)

And I don't think being a mascot/protagonist matters if they want a character from a series like one of these, considering the mascot/protagonist would, of course, already be in, and many of the other characters in their games are very well loved as well.
 
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True Blue Warrior

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Even if Min Min wasn’t a “shill pick” (I don’t like that term, but I still think it applies to an extent), she still supports the fact that first party picks have largely been mascots/protagonists if they are the first from their series in Smash.
That’s if we are talking about new franchises. There is nothing indicating we couldn’t get characters from existing franchises.
Oy.

I’m just gonna say this. Is Min Min a pure marketing pick? No. I didn’t say she was. I said she was marketed differently than the other marketing picks.

If you’re gonna tell me that adding a demo, and a 3 month session of getting tons of people talking about ARMS for three months wasn’t a part of a plan to push the game whatsoever, I’m just gonna have to disagree with you.

It’s a unique situation that no other pick would be in. It’s really not that big of a deal and not that crazy of a suggestion. Was Min Min meant purely for pushing ARMS? Probably not. But does ARMS push the Switch first party library as a brand, and offer a great opportunity to push ARMS despite being a 3 year old game? Undeniably yes.
The problem with a lot of these arguments seem to be under the logic that Min Min’s inclusion had anything to do with promotion rather than the other way around with level of promotion being a thing after Min Min was decided. She didn’t need anything upcoming to be in Smash - the strength of the sales of ARMS was enough since successful franchises inevitably get new games, just like with other Nintendo franchises.
 

Scoliosis Jones

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That’s if we are talking about new franchises. There is nothing indicating we couldn’t get characters from existing franchises.


The problem with a lot of these arguments seem to be under the logic that Min Min’s inclusion had anything to do with promotion rather than the other way around with level of promotion being a thing after Min Min was decided. She didn’t need anything upcoming to be in Smash - the strength of the sales of ARMS was enough since successful franchises inevitably get new games, just like with other Nintendo franchises.
I think there’s a misunderstanding that the acts they did only marketed one or the other. Min Min getting into Smash didn’t necessarily need anything to lead in for marketing. But could ARMS, a successful game with a major player base drop off, use some additional exposure to push as another Switch library game? Absolutely!

Let’s be real with ARMS- it’s commonly forgotten about as the black sheep of the Switch library. It was successful but, again, dropped off. Folks who aren’t we versed in the library may forget about it. But hey! There’s Min Min and a Switch game folks forget exists! Check it out! This is part hyperbole, part things I’ve seen in the Nintendo community.

Min Min advertises Smash advertises ARMS through supplemental things like a demo and exposure on social media with the guessing game. This is precisely why I said it was different from Byleth, but pushing for a similar goal. Pushing the game and the Switch as a brand.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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-Shantae Would be hard to make and implement as a character. Shantae currently does not have an Official 3D Model, so Sakurai and the Team would have to make a Whole New Model, and also have to make the other assets like Stages and Background characters from Scratch. Because of her Animal Transformations, This will be more Modeling and Animating than usual, like how They had to model Arsene for Joker, but even more than that becuase there are Multiple Animal Transformations
Aside from the Animal Transformations thing, I think most of this is par for the course.

No, because that’s a franchise without a future unlike the likes of Donkey Kong and Kirby who are guaranteed to get new games due to the success of their recent Switch titles.
Yeah, but are they getting something that Nintendo would be interested in promoting in this way in the near future? Is what they have now something that Nintendo would be interested in promoting in this way?

For Donkey Kong, probably not. It's just got a port on the Switch and there's no sign of a new game. For Kirby, maybe. It's got a bigger title on the Switch, and there's some evidence to a new game (that isn't a foofy spin-off) being in the works.
 

Slime Master

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Unfortunately, this criteria seems to have been reversed because of Joker; now the first-parties apparently need to prove their worth while the third-parties have more leniency. There's never been a case of both sides being equally possible... unless you count the end of the Smash speculation cycle, obviously.
Sorry, wasn't paying attention and missed this. I think that's true, but I'm not sure how much of that is the pendulum swinging too far the other way, and how much of it is simply that people have a different mindset for DLC, especially with Ult's very specific format for DLC.
 

7NATOR

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Okay I got to ask

If we don't get a Smash reveal at TGA's, but we do get one This Month, How would that change your Predictions for FP8?
 

SharkLord

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What are the chances of Shantae getting in? I'd like to see all the reactions from the various youtubers I watch for Smash content, alot of them hardly ever or never bring her up so to see such an unexpected character from their perspectives would be really interesting, it would change how they themselves view potential picks after her inclusion.
Well, I am the guy who keeps pushing an indie rep. Might as well give my two cents:

In my personal pyramid of indie likelihood, I'd place in the second-highest tier. She's popular in both the indie sphere and the Smash fanbase, especially around the time the Smash Ballot was held. Plus, she has all five games available on the Switch, so there's no shortage of Nintendo connections. Wayforward would love to see her in Smash, but to be honest that goes for pretty much any indie creator so yeah.

The reason I haven't placed her higher is that I don't feel that she has the edge to push her up there. The two I list among the highest tier would be Reimu and Shovel Knight, who I feel are emblematic of indies in their own different ways. Touhou has a combination of immense popularity in Japan (Plus a snaller but still solid following in the West, but I'm not sure exactly how big or small that is), a mountain of fanworks, and a history that most indies could only dream of, and Shovel Knight for becoming an icon of the modern indie boom and showing up in pretty much every game he can squeeze his way into, from Indie Pogo to Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night.

Shantae does have some of that too, but not to the same level. She has a longer history than most indies, but she was stuck as a cult classic until the modern indie boom, so that history doesn't necessarily equate to legacy. She has a decent amount of cameos, but not to Shovel Knight's level (Though in all fairness there aren't many game characters who can out-cameo %$#@ing Shovel Knight). She managed to get into Smash as a Spirit, but Shovel Knight managed to go further and became an Assist Trophy.

Though, now that I've been thinking about her a bit more, I think I may have been overlooking her a little. I still wouldn't place her at the top of my personal indie tier list, but I'd still place her pretty darn high. Heck, I might go as far as to put her in the top three. She doesn't have as much going for her, in my opinion, but she definitely has what it takes.
 

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To be fair, I don’t know that that’s actually what’s happening.

If some folks are taking it as “first parties aren’t good enough” then that may be a misread. In my approach, at the very least, it’s not that first parties can’t be added, it’s more the question of will they?

It’s not unfounded, really. I’m a broken record. DLC picks back to Ryu reflect a focus on “new” things to Smash or Nintendo. First party picks in DLC have either been from a new game (Fire Emblem) or a game that is absent in the playable department and is given a simultaneous push (ARMS). Both of those are similar in goals, even if not exactly the same situation. Not to mention, every pick has been a protagonist from their specific game, coming with clearly differentiated content from anything else in the game. You know Byleth is Fire Emblem, but Three Houses itself differentiates itself from the other content from the same series in the game.

In terms of things being reversed on 3rd parties compared to how things “used to be”...well, consider the situation. The “Nintendo connection” sticking point folks had for quite some time isn’t really all that strong anymore. Folks were literally trying to make Nintendo connections to Cloud (in which Sakurai addressed it specifically) and Persona 5 (a literal PlayStation exclusive game). It’s not as strong as it used to be, if it’s a large part of selection processes anyway.

It should also be noted that support from a series/developer can be jumpstarted by a Smash inclusion. Hypothetically, if Nintendo were interested in getting NieR Automata on Switch, would 2B in Smash not be a great step toward that?

But look at Ultimate for what it is. We have dozens of the most iconic Nintendo characters. Ridley and K.Rool the top biggest (lol) picks of the generation are in. We also have picks like Cloud, Joker, and Banjo in the game. I don’t think it’s that surprising that, outside of the hardcore fanbase, folks want more 3rd parties to cash in with crossovers as opposed to the remaining 1st parties folks focus on.

This probably won’t have the effect it should, based on what folks probably think of my opinions. I appreciate that folks have strong opinions on their most wanted Nintendo characters. But we’re talking supporting characters of series that don’t have the same standing currently as other series.

Would Dixie Kong be a big deal to Nintendo fans? Probably. Would Crash Bandicoot? Probably. Overall? I think Crash has the larger presence in the industry and would be the “bigger” pick holistically because of the crossover power of Mario vs. Sonic vs. Crash and because it’s an inherently new series crossing over.

This doesn’t even include the fact that some folks flat out ignore the strong possibility that highly requested Nintendo characters might not even be in contention. Emphasis on might because I agree that we simply don’t know...we know upgrades can happen based on Min Min, but will it happen again? With Assist Trophies? There’s potential that it does, no doubt. But there’s also the chance that it doesn’t, and that if it does, only one time.

There’s a wider pool of third parties with a wider reach than many first parties have. It doesn’t mean they’re superior to Nintendo picks (which is probably what it seems like I’m saying) it just means that there’s potentially likelihood for the remainder to reflect what we’ve seen in Wii U and now Ultimate, which is 1st party marketing picks and 3rd party protagonists.

Overall I think it’s more of a focus on “new” and themed packs in terms of the Fighter Pass rather than 3rd parties, but I still think we’re in for mostly 3rd parties going forward. I only say that based on what we’ve seen so far.

I’m at a point where I don’t actually care too much about who ends up in the game because I have a massive backlog and have been distracted from Smash as of late. The wait isn’t as painful.

I grew up on Nintendo. I have...way too much Nintendo stuff in my house. I am anything but a Nintendo hater. I simply feel that most of what Nintendo has to offer is largely in the game already, and while other Nintendo series or characters aren’t out of the question, I can see why they would opt for adding 3rd parties over IP or characters that they either are not using actively, or may not have the marketing potential in their eyes.
Yeah, when comparing the base roster characters to all of the DLC fighters which were new to their respective Smash Bros. entries, there's clearly a pattern with how everything's structured.
To the point that, ironically, some of the most popular 1st Party requests have less of an opportunity than not-so-popular 3rd Party requests to join the battle in a Nintendo fighting game at this point.

Base roster picks have proven to be quite flexible, presenting a clear emphasis on including popular and/or iconic Nintendo characters no matter their current status within their respective Nintendo properties. Therefore, there typically isn't as much of a focus on 3rd Party characters in general at the time.

DLC picks on the other hand have proven to be more selective, presenting a defined emphasis on including characters only if they bring something new to the table. 3rd Party characters can pull this off easily, which is probably why they're favored during this time. Granted, Sm4sh's DLC was as unorthodox as it could get, since it began by dishing out characters who were already in Smash before. However, the last few picks (Ryu, Cloud, Corrin, and Bayonetta) satisfied this hidden quota for DLC characters moving forward.

Therefore, I believe that we certainly won't see them pulling Bandana Dee, Waluigi, or Dixie Kong out of a hat for no particular reason at all.
Heck, I don't even think popularity has anything to do with it, at least more than satisfying this particular quota of bringing something new to Smash.
Fire Emblem is pretty lucky since it has a rotating cast with new protagonists for each entry, because this provides a perfect opportunity to pick someone fresh and new from that series for the roster during the DLC period. Min Min had the benefit of being a Nintendo IP which hadn't been properly represented in Smash before the DLC period began. Not to mention that ARMS came out before Ultimate, unlike Splatoon and Sm4sh, so everything worked in the Smash Team's favor. But most importantly, the quota was fulfilled.

The same can't easily be said for those other three characters I mentioned (or certain other 1st Party requests), unless there is something from their own respective franchises of which they themselves could promote. Which might sound easy at first until you look back at how Fire Emblem, a franchise already represented in Smash, brought even more representation into Smash through DLC: It was fresh, it was specific, and the character had a starring role within that specific game.

Let's compare this logic to my most wanted 1st party character (and most wanted in general), Bandana Waddle Dee.

The latest core entry in the Kirby franchise thus far was Kirby Star Allies. Could he use that as a ticket into Smash? Let's see...
Is the game in question fresh? Compared to even Three Houses, not exactly.
Is the game in question specific? Yep, it wouldn't be promotion in the form of a range of games.
Does the character have a starring role? It's debatable, since Kirby was clearly shown as the main protagonist from the start of the game's first cutscene.
Additionally, there is at least one music track from the game which is currently in Ultimate, so there's already representation for the game beyond Spirits.
Therefore, this wouldn't be a good base for Bandana Dee to stand on and thus he wouldn't fulfill the quota.

The solution for characters like Bandana Dee would be to hope that a fresh, new game for their respective franchise comes along during the DLC period, of which they also star in as a main playable character. (Oh yeah, the emphasis on DLC protagonists also convinces me that there won't be any villains in any Fighter Pass, unless they're somehow main playable characters who stack up to the main protagonist, but that's another topic).

Anyway, if anyone wants to dissect any particular point(s) and have a little chat, feel free. Otherwise, I just wanted to place my thoughts on the debate between 1st and 3rd Party character.
 
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Ivander

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Seems like we’re probably at an impasse so let’s talk about our favorite soft drinks.

I’ll go first.

I really like Coke.
Grape and Orange Crush preferably. But I don't mind Pepsi, Coke, Mountain Dew, and some other Orange sodas.
 
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