Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[cashregister9]

Here is how I personally would rank the companies likelihood for pass 2

-Nintendo (Already in and has a good shot at another)
-SEGA
-Capcom
-Arcsys
-Koei
-Activision
-Bamco
-Falcom
-Square Enix/Disney
-Marvelous
-Microsoft
-Level 5
-Ubisosft
-Konami
-Blizzard
-Bethesda

 

[Cosmic77]

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if we got neither a Capcom or Namco character.

I feel like people try too hard to "give turns" to each third-party company. "If Konami, Sega, and SE have all gotten a character in Smash, that means Capcom or Namco is next."

Not saying we won't get a character from either company, but I don't think Nintendo is choosing these characters by passing out fighter slots like they're sharing a bar of chocolate with their friends.

 

[Shroob]

Curse of the last page post.


Oof.

 

[MooMew64]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

• Nintendo
• Capcom
• Bandai-Namco
• Sega
• Blizzard
• Bethesda
• ArcSystem Works
• Level 5
• Ubisoft
• Koei Techmo
• Disney

Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

Nintendo, Capcom, Sega, ArcSystem Works, and Koei Techmo are probably were I'm hedging my bets right now. As for the others...

- Ubisoft is pretty much out of the running in my eyes with the Ubisoft Mii costumes' timing.

- Bamco is in a weird position where if they were gonna get something more, you'd think it would've happened by now (plus the Heihachi costume's placement and timing).

- I don't see Blizzard making it in, personally. Just a gut feeling, plus, I believe there were interviews with them recently that seemingly killed chances.

- Bethesda seems incredibly unlikely given the Doom interview we had last year and the Fallout Mii costume timing.

- Level 5 is kind of in hot water right now, aren't they? Plus, their biggest IPs have been laying pretty dormant, so unfortunately I think they're out.

- I adore Sora but Nintendo ain't talking to the mouse.

 

[Deleted member]

Geno's such a weird character to me, because while I think he's likely just as much as any character, every time I see evidence towards him thrown around, I don't see evidence, I see assumptions.


Cacomallow:


It's fake, but today's post didn't change that, because it's 4chan, anyone can come in and say anything anonymously. The fact that it's a video leak that's been up for almost an entire year now when the Nintendo Copyright bots have attacked videos for less, that's not a good look for ol Caco. You'd think, with how many times it's been uploaded and reuploaded that it'd have been killed, but, no, it hasn't. Some people will say that they won't take it down because it'd be suspicious, but they forget that it's bots, bots don't give a **** about that, and the fact that Cacomallow wasn't killed on sight by the bots the minute it was uploaded is VERY telling.


The missing Mii Costume:


Is not evidence, because we've already seen how sporadic these are. Heihachi got dropped on our heads when no one expected it, and we're still missing others from Smash 4 like Rathalos Armor and Lloyd. A lack of info is not a good enough reason to assume, especially since we know that they're still bringing most, if not all, of the old costumes back. Could Geno be upgraded to a full character? Yes, but he could also become a Premium Costume with his theme, never assume this is a 'hint' unless we get another Square character, they bring back the Chocobo hat, but not him.


Gamespot's 'LEAK':

I'm not even going to spend time on this. The video was filmed in June, and Nintendo pulled out of E3 back in March. People seriously are out here trying to claim that Gamespot had access to Nintendo's E3 plans when they pulled out in early March, and they just happened to leak Geno of all things and nothing else, especially odd since there isn't a single credible insider who knows who the next Fighter is currently, let alone do we even know if we're getting one soon.


Mario Tournament:

This is my own speculation but, if we don't get Geno before this, and we don't hear anything about him coming via a trailer drop during this thing, he's as good as dead to me. With how much they're hyping up this Tournament, you'd figure that they would want ALL the Mario content to be either in the game for it, or to be shown off, but if November comes and goes, and assuming Challenger Pack 7 isn't Geno, and Challenger Pack 8 comes sometime in 2021 and it's not hinted to be him during this time, then he's taken a devastating blow in my eyes.

Quoting this post so more people can see it. It deserves a nice read!!!

 

[SKX31]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

• Nintendo
• Capcom
• Bandai-Namco
• Sega
• Blizzard
• Bethesda
• ArcSystem Works
• Level 5
• Ubisoft
• Koei Techmo
• Disney

Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

One could feasibly add several further companies to that list (Spike Chunsoft, Falcom, Valve, Microsoft, Tencent) my very personal and 100 % opinionated list would be something like this:

1. Nintendo (And I rate the chance of another first party as ca. 25 -30 %)
2. Capcom
3. Koei Tecmo
4. Microsoft
5. SEGA
6. Tencent
7. Square-Enix
8. ASW
9. Activision (- Blizzard, Blizzard would rank just above Bethesda by themselves)
10. Spike Chunsoft
11. Level 5
12. Disney
13. Falcom
14. Bandai-Namco
15. Valve
16. Bethesda

If anyone wants to ask why I consider certain companies to be at their respective positions, feel free to do so.

 

[SharkLord]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

• Nintendo
• Capcom
• Bandai-Namco
• Sega
• Blizzard
• Bethesda
• ArcSystem Works
• Level 5
• Ubisoft
• Koei Techmo
• Disney
• Microsoft
• Sony

Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

EDIT: Forgot Microsoft and Sony. lol

• Nintendo's a given. I'm expecting at least one more first-party, most likely a full 50-50 split.
• Capcom, Bandai-Namco, Koei-Tecmo, and Square Enix have been pretty buddy-buddy with Nintendo as of late, to the point that they're developing major exclusives for them.
• Level-5 and Sega are pretty close to Nintendo, but aren't as active in the Nintendo sphere as the above ones. We could still easily get some reps from them, but they're not as apparent as the above four.
• Ubisoft, ArcSys, and Bethesda already have content, but they aren't really the big heavy-hitters of their candidates. The Miis passed over Rayman and Ezio in favor of the Rabbids and Altair, with the Prince of Persia not even mentioned. ArcSys' famous high-octane fighting games weren't even mentioned, with the bought-out River City getting Spirits instead. Bethesda got the Vault Boy, and with Doomguy seemingly deconfirmed in an interview, the Dragonborn seems to be their frontrunner at the moment.
• Blizzard's a hard maybe, and would most likely be passed over in favor of Crash when we take the entirety of Activision-Blizzard into account.
• Microsoft's weird. They wanted to focus on the XSX, but they also gave Nintendo the second Ori game. They could give us another fighter, but they might not.
• Disney is a big pit of frickery regarding Sora, so I have no idea what to say about them.
• Yeah, we're not getting someone from Sony. No way are they collaborating with another console maker.

 

[Deleted member]

With this whole Cacomallow leak Why did people immediately go to "These 2 hats immediately confirm Geno and Doom guy" IF this was real maybe they would add a Cacodemon hat because it is one of the most iconic Enemies in video games? and they might add a mallow hat because he makes a good hat? cacomallow is hella fake though so there is really no debate.

Around the time Cacomallow surfaced, there was a modder that said modding jiggle physics to hats haven't been done before and are incredibly hard to make or something. They also mentioned the same thing for helmets which was why people jumped to it being true IICR. Next thing you know, a couple of people ended up modding their own versions of those mii hats to prove it's possible to mod jiggle physics and helmets, but a good portion of fans were still not believing it could be fake like when somebody circled a little pixel on a modded Cacodemon hat.

 

[Evil Trapezium]

yes, it's time for everyone's least favorite image leak:

can anyone check if the number of the person claiming to have done it matches up with the original 4chan post a year ago, and/or find the thread this is happening in and see if he says any more?

Anonymous4chanuser525267449 was behind this fake? That explains everything!

 

[MooMew64]

Geno's such a weird character to me, because while I think he's likely just as much as any character, every time I see evidence towards him thrown around, I don't see evidence, I see assumptions.


Cacomallow:


It's fake, but today's post didn't change that, because it's 4chan, anyone can come in and say anything anonymously. The fact that it's a video leak that's been up for almost an entire year now when the Nintendo Copyright bots have attacked videos for less, that's not a good look for ol Caco. You'd think, with how many times it's been uploaded and reuploaded that it'd have been killed, but, no, it hasn't. Some people will say that they won't take it down because it'd be suspicious, but they forget that it's bots, bots don't give a **** about that, and the fact that Cacomallow wasn't killed on sight by the bots the minute it was uploaded is VERY telling.


The missing Mii Costume:


Is not evidence, because we've already seen how sporadic these are. Heihachi got dropped on our heads when no one expected it, and we're still missing others from Smash 4 like Rathalos Armor and Lloyd. A lack of info is not a good enough reason to assume, especially since we know that they're still bringing most, if not all, of the old costumes back. Could Geno be upgraded to a full character? Yes, but he could also become a Premium Costume with his theme, never assume this is a 'hint' unless we get another Square character, they bring back the Chocobo hat, but not him.


Gamespot's 'LEAK':

I'm not even going to spend time on this. The video was filmed in June, and Nintendo pulled out of E3 back in March. People seriously are out here trying to claim that Gamespot had access to Nintendo's E3 plans when they pulled out in early March, and they just happened to leak Geno of all things and nothing else, especially odd since there isn't a single credible insider who knows who the next Fighter is currently, let alone do we even know if we're getting one soon.


Mario Tournament:

This is my own speculation but, if we don't get Geno before this, and we don't hear anything about him coming via a trailer drop during this thing, he's as good as dead to me. With how much they're hyping up this Tournament, you'd figure that they would want ALL the Mario content to be either in the game for it, or to be shown off, but if November comes and goes, and assuming Challenger Pack 7 isn't Geno, and Challenger Pack 8 comes sometime in 2021 and it's not hinted to be him during this time, then he's taken a devastating blow in my eyes.

Pretty much summed up my thoughts on Geno. He's definitely still in the running, but I feel that the evidence people try to use for him is more wishful thinking and, as you said, assumptions being made without any real concrete proof or basis.

Like, I'm not gonna lie, I know that some are trying to say he's likely because there's supposedly a SMRPG remake coming out, but like...Wouldn't that have been a part of the Mario 35th celebrations if that was a thing? Same with Geno himself; If he really was coming, and was CP7, that Mario Direct would've been the perfect time and place to announce it and then date a Sakurai Presents, and yet, not even a brief word about SMRPG. Not even an acknowledgement, from what I remember. To be honest, I feel that the Super Mario 35th stuff hurts him, not helps him.

IDK, I'm not trying to be a fun killer here or be down on Geno, but this is just kind of how I view things with him. If he's coming, the road to getting him will have been very strange.

 

[3BitSaurus]

One could feasibly add several further companies to that list (Spike Chunsoft, Falcom, Valve, Microsoft, Tencent) my very personal and 100 % opinionated list would be something like this:

1. Nintendo (And I rate the chance of another first party as ca. 25 -30 %)
2. Capcom
3. Koei Tecmo
4. Microsoft
5. SEGA
6. Tencent
7. ASW
8. Activision (- Blizzard, Blizzard would rank just above Bethesda by themselves)
9. Spike Chunsoft
10. Level 5
11. Disney
12. Falcom
13. Bandai-Namco
14. Valve
15. Bethesda

If anyone wants to ask why I consider certain companies to be at their respective positions, feel free to do so.

With Sony added to it just because, my list would look like this:

1. Nintendo -> Don't think Min Min will be the sole first party of the Pass, even if we get only 1 more
2. Koei Tecmo -> In a great spot with Nintendo
3. Microsoft -> After Banjo, they're in prime position for a second character, especially with extended Switch support
4. Tencent -> Like it or not, and I know I'm suspicious to talk about this one, but I think it's being slept on hard
5. Capcom -> Has several great candidates left and pretty much sticks their IPs thenever they can.
6. SEGA
7. Bandai Namco -> Will feel inda weird if it doesn't happen, especially considering they help make the game
8. Arc System Works
9. Level-5
10. Activision/Blizzard
11. Disney
12. Konami
13. Nippon Ichi
14. Spike Chunsoft
15. Nihom Falcom
16. Cygames
17. Ubisoft
18. Valve
19. Bethesda
20. Sony -> Would be cool, but... not happening imo
21. SNK -> mostly because Terry came with a lot of content, really

Sorry about the mess, I don't think there's a way to space lines in lists.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

My thoughts are thus:

Spoiler

• Nintendo: While I think the number of choices from this company are pretty limited due to the focus on promotion here, I do think at least one more fighter from them is likely.
• Capcom: Monster Hunter looks like a pretty appealing option to Nintendo right now, so a character from that series seems likelier than most.
• Bandai-Namco: The Tales of series is the only realistic option left iirc, but I do think it is a strong contender. I think the biggest issue here is that the Tales of series isn't really doing much at the moment, though that's probably also a good thing since it means it's less likely to fall prey to rotating cast syndrome.
• Sega: Puyo Puyo and Yakuza are decently strong contenders, though I'd place my bets on Puyo Puyo, as it appeals to an audience that is completely new.
• SquareEnix: I think the company still has a strong contender in Tomb Raider, and some smaller ones in Bravely Default, Chrono Trigger, and The World Ends with You. I think likelihood here depends on how dumb the rights are.
• Blizzard: I don't think we'll see any of the Blizzard side of characters since Tracer is disconfirmed and Warcraft is PC only, but Crash Bandicoot I think is a realistic contender. Syro is...much less so, but Crash I think has a decent shot, with the biggest issue being that his latest title isn't on the Switch.
• Bethesda: Fallout is gone, but The Elder Scrolls and Doom are still contenders imo. I think Skyrim has a pretty good chance of at least getting a Spirit event or something.
• ArcSystem Works: Guilty Gear and BlazBlue aren't the strongest contenders imo, but I don't think they're impossible.
• Level 5: I don't think this company having financial troubles really affects much. If anything, it would just insure that Nintendo would be able to add as much content as they wanted be it from Professor Layton, Yo-Kai Watch, both, or more. Still though, these are pretty small series universally in comparison to what's been added before. I dunno how appealing these options are.
• Ubisoft: The Altaïr (lol), and Rabbids series might be disconfirmed, but Rayman is still a contender. The series does suffer from the same stuff as Level 5's IPs do, though there is a history of including Rayman in some capacity, so there's that.
• Koei Techmo: Dunno about Dead or Alive, but Ninja Gaiden seems like exactly the kind of series they would add in the base game. Not sure if it would be something they'd add as DLC, but if the rumors about a new game are to be believed, we could see Ryu because of it.
• Disney: Kingdom Hearts is certainly popular enough to be included. The question is of whether or not Disney would comply. It's really anyone's guess.
• Microsoft: We could see Steve added, as Minecraft is incredibly popular, or we may see Ori. Ori is more of a long shot though. I also don't think we'll get Master Chief. It would be cool if they could pull it off, but I don't see Microsoft's biggest mascot going to a Nintendo console.
• Sony: lol no. It's a shame too.
• Falcom: What's a Falcom?
• Spike Chunsoft: Daggenrompa seems like a bit of a long shot, but I'd say it's not impossible.
• Valve: Half Life and Portal would be amazing additions, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
• Tencent: I'd say a League of Legends character might be more likely than any of us expect, though it is a pretty big wildcard.
• Konami: Since Bomberman is an Assist Trophy, I don't think Konami has another character that Nintendo would add.

I'd say the most likely companies are Nintendo, then Capcom, Bandai-Namco, Blizzard, Bethesda, Sega, Koei Techmo, Microsoft. After that we have a few wildcards like Spike Chunsoft, Tencent, Disney, SquareEnix, and ArcSystem Works. Level 5, Ubisoft, and Valve are probably as unlikely as you can get without being impossible, and Sony is just no. I think Konami is also a pretty solid no as well.

Also, I can't believe nobody called me out for forgetting SquareEnix on my original post. lol
EDIT: And Konami.
EDIT EDIT: Forgot to finish my thoughts on Blizzard.
EDIT EDIT EDIT: I had planned to not rate Falcom due to a lack of information, but forgot and did it anyway. I have now rectified this.

 

[True Blue Warrior]

I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't get another Capcom character at all.

Watch as we get Chun-Li

 

[SpectreJordan]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

• Nintendo
• Capcom
• Bandai-Namco
• Sega
• Blizzard
• Bethesda
• ArcSystem Works
• Level 5
• Ubisoft
• Koei Techmo
• Disney
• Microsoft
• Sony

Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

EDIT: Forgot Microsoft and Sony. lol

I’d rank their likelihood as:

Nintendo
Capcom
Square
Microsoft
ArcSys = Koei Tecmo
Sega = Activision-Blizzard
Namco
Level 5
Disney
Ubisoft = Bethesda
Sony

I think another Nintendo character is 100% happening.

Capcom & Square have been pretty close to Nintendo lately, while also having tons of beloved characters to choose from.

I think it’d be odd if Nintendo didn’t utilize their newfound partnership with Microsoft to get another superstar for the pass.

Arc Sys & particularly Koei have been pretty supportive of the Switch. Koei’s probably helped with more Switch exclusives than any sole Nintendo developer. I think that loyalty could earn them in a spot in Smash. But I think with how popular ArcSys has become in recent years, they could choose someone from them too.

I don’t think it’s likely that Sega gets a 4th character, but they do have some good choices to pick from. Meanwhile, I think Activision is higher up on the list of new western companies to introduce due to their several huge IPs. But they’re also a notoriously greedy company & could ruin negotiations through said greed.

Namco is really weird. They make the game so you think they’d have more characters already. But they don’t despite fan demand for several of their characters. At this point, I think it’s Namco trying to be humble & not fill the game with their characters. I think we should see someone else from Namco but I guess that’s their call lol

I don’t really see Level 5 getting a character. I feel if we get a smaller Japanese developer then it’d be Koei or Arc Sys.

I think the last 4 are out of the running altogether.

 

[ZeldaPlayer87]

Watch as we get Chun-Li

I wouldn’t be mad at it. Just give us her Alpha outfit too.

 

[Dinoman96]

What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:

• Nintendo
• Capcom
• Bandai-Namco
• Sega
• Blizzard
• Bethesda
• ArcSystem Works
• Level 5
• Ubisoft
• Koei Techmo
• Disney
• Microsoft
• Sony

Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

EDIT: Forgot Microsoft and Sony. lol

What about Activision?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

What about Activision?

Owned by Blizzard.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Owned by Blizzard.

Other way around, it's Activision owns Blizzard.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Other way around, it's Activision owns Blizzard.

Actually, now that you mention it, neither owns the other. A separate company known as Activision-Blizzard owns them both assuming I ever understood the company heirarchy.

 

[SharkLord]

Geno's such a weird character to me, because while I think he's likely just as much as any character, every time I see evidence towards him thrown around, I don't see evidence, I see assumptions.


Cacomallow:


It's fake, but today's post didn't change that, because it's 4chan, anyone can come in and say anything anonymously. The fact that it's a video leak that's been up for almost an entire year now when the Nintendo Copyright bots have attacked videos for less, that's not a good look for ol Caco. You'd think, with how many times it's been uploaded and reuploaded that it'd have been killed, but, no, it hasn't. Some people will say that they won't take it down because it'd be suspicious, but they forget that it's bots, bots don't give a **** about that, and the fact that Cacomallow wasn't killed on sight by the bots the minute it was uploaded is VERY telling.


The missing Mii Costume:


Is not evidence, because we've already seen how sporadic these are. Heihachi got dropped on our heads when no one expected it, and we're still missing others from Smash 4 like Rathalos Armor and Lloyd. A lack of info is not a good enough reason to assume, especially since we know that they're still bringing most, if not all, of the old costumes back. Could Geno be upgraded to a full character? Yes, but he could also become a Premium Costume with his theme, never assume this is a 'hint' unless we get another Square character, they bring back the Chocobo hat, but not him.


Gamespot's 'LEAK':

I'm not even going to spend time on this. The video was filmed in June, and Nintendo pulled out of E3 back in March. People seriously are out here trying to claim that Gamespot had access to Nintendo's E3 plans when they pulled out in early March, and they just happened to leak Geno of all things and nothing else, especially odd since there isn't a single credible insider who knows who the next Fighter is currently, let alone do we even know if we're getting one soon.


Mario Tournament:

This is my own speculation but, if we don't get Geno before this, and we don't hear anything about him coming via a trailer drop during this thing, he's as good as dead to me. With how much they're hyping up this Tournament, you'd figure that they would want ALL the Mario content to be either in the game for it, or to be shown off, but if November comes and goes, and assuming Challenger Pack 7 isn't Geno, and Challenger Pack 8 comes sometime in 2021 and it's not hinted to be him during this time, then he's taken a devastating blow in my eyes.

Yeah, I think that's the reason Geno's so divisive around here. What's brought up as "evidence" for him isn't something clearly in his favor like a new game or whatnot, it's always ambiguous leaks and drawing conclusions. Heck, even if CacoMallow is real, it might not even lead to him at all; It could easily just be Doomguy. Even if it's not Doomguy, it could still just have a Geno costume sitting in the corner. Two costumes isn't enough to constitute an entire wave. Some of his supporters jump on anything that could vaguely relate to Geno, and that's why he's such a controversial subject here on SmashBoards.

 

[SKX31]

• Microsoft's weird. They wanted to focus on the XSX, but they also gave Nintendo the second Ori game. They could give us another fighter, but they might not.

Microsoft's strategy has largely shifted towards the Game Pass. The Series X / S are still going to be their primary consoles, but games played on PC / other devices will essentially serve as a way to get more people to play more Game Pass games - and they hope that at least some Game Pass users will wind up buying Series X / S. It's also a major reason why Game Pass' been rumored to come to the Switch: it'd make sense for Microsoft to expand the service to the Switch if given the opportunity. Again, rumored, nothing's been confirmed.

Zhuge wrote a twitter thread about it here,

Microsoft's strategy is kinda similar to Nintendo's stated objective with the IP Expansion. Use the movies, theme parks etc. partly as a way to entice more people to play Nintendo consoles:

Nintendo continues to communicate its IP Expansion philosophy

The Nintendo Switch platform currently accounts for 94% of Nintendo's revenue

Nintendo wants to grow merchandise, Theme Parks, Mobile and Visual Content beyond 6%. Utilising value of Nintendo IP across entertainment pic.twitter.com/zuxO0G6SG8

— Daniel Ahmad (@ZhugeEX) September 16, 2020

My thoughts are thus:

Spoiler

• Nintendo: While I think the number of choices from this company are pretty limited due to the focus on promotion here, I do think at least one more fighter from them is likely.
• Capcom: Monster Hunter looks like a pretty appealing option to Nintendo right now, so a character from that series seems likelier than most.
• Bandai-Namco: The Tales of series is the only realistic option left iirc, but I do think it is a strong contender. I think the biggest issue here is that the Tales of series isn't really doing much at the moment, though that's probably also a good thing since it means it's less likely to fall prey to rotating cast syndrome.
• Sega: Puyo Puyo and Yakuza are decently strong contenders, though I'd place my bets on Puyo Puyo, as it appeals to an audience that is completely new.
• SquareEnix: I think the company still has a strong contender in Tomb Raider, and some smaller ones in Bravely Default, Chrono Trigger, and The World Ends with You. I think likelihood here depends on how dumb the rights are.
• Blizzard: I don't think we'll see any of the Blizzard side of characters since Tracer is disconfirmed and Warcraft is PC only.
• Bethesda: Fallout is gone, but The Elder Scrolls and Doom are still contenders imo. I think Skyrim has a pretty good chance of at least getting a Spirit event or something.
• ArcSystem Works: Guilty Gear and BlazBlue aren't the strongest contenders imo, but I don't think they're impossible.
• Level 5: I don't think this company having financial troubles really affects much. If anything, it would just insure that Nintendo would be able to add as much content as they wanted be it from Professor Layton, Yo-Kai Watch, both, or more. Still though, these are pretty small series universally in comparison to what's been added before. I dunno how appealing these options are.
• Ubisoft: The Altaïr (lol), and Rabbids series might be disconfirmed, but Rayman is still a contender. The series does suffer from the same stuff as Level 5's IPs do, though there is a history of including Rayman in some capacity, so there's that.
• Koei Techmo: Dunno about Dead or Alive, but Ninja Gaiden seems like exactly the kind of series they would add in the base game. Not sure if it would be something they'd add as DLC, but if the rumors about a new game are to be believed, we could see Ryu because of it.
• Disney: Kingdom Hearts is certainly popular enough to be included. The question is of whether or not Disney would comply. It's really anyone's guess.
• Microsoft: We could see Steve added, as Minecraft is incredibly popular, or we may see Ori. Ori is more of a long shot though. I also don't think we'll get Master Chief. It would be cool if they could pull it off, but I don't see Microsoft's biggest mascot going to a Nintendo console.
• Sony: lol no. It's a shame too.
• Falcom: What's a Falcom?
• Spike Chunsoft: Daggenrompa seems like a bit of a long shot, but I'd say it's not impossible.
• Valve: Half Life and Portal would be amazing additions, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
• Tencent: I'd say a League of Legends character might be more likely than any of us expect, though it is a pretty big wildcard.
• Konami: Since Bomberman is an Assist Trophy, I don't think Konami has another character that Nintendo would add.

I'd say the most likely companies are Nintendo, then Capcom, Bandai-Namco, Blizzard, Bethesda, Sega, Koei Techmo, Microsoft. After that we have a few wildcards like Spike Chunsoft, Tencent, Disney, SquareEnix, and ArcSystem Works. Level 5, Ubisoft, Falcom, and Valve are probably as unlikely as you can get without being impossible, and Sony is just no. I think Konami is also a pretty solid no as well.

Also, I can't believe nobody called me out for forgetting SquareEnix on my original post. lol
EDIT: And Konami.

Hey, I also forgot that S-E and Konami were present. Konami's far down the ranks for me too, since Konami doesn't have a clear cut favorite that's viable. One could argue Bill Rizer / Lance Bean... but they've had it generally rough recently outside of a mobile game that's exclusive to a couple regions.

(I find it really interesting that a certain Japanese marathon speculator considered Crash, Tracer and CoD when discussing A-B, but not Spyro.)

And yeah, besides agreeing with GoodGrief741 : It's Activision (and CEO Bobby Kotick) who initiated the merger back in 2008:

Kotick met Mike Morhaime, the creative genius behind Warcraft, to talk over the proposed merger. Morhaime described the far reaches of the Warcraft empire. He told Kotick how the average player spends 11 hours a week playing. In China, where rampant copying has eaten away at the profits of any Western media company trying to enter the market, customers at 160,000 Internet cafes spent $150 million last year on Warcraft time by the minute, protecting the revenue from easy piracy.

Kotick's reluctance began to fade. What if he could sell Activision's other games to China the way Blizzard did, putting Guitar Hero into all those Internet cafes and charging by the minute?

Activision's statement is archived here (emphasis mine):

Under the terms of the agreement, Vivendi Games will be merged with a wholly owned subsidiary of Activision. In the merger, shares of Vivendi Games will be converted into 295.3 million new shares of Activision common stock. Based on the transaction price of $27.50 per share of Activision common stock, this implies a value of approximately $8.1 billion for Vivendi Games. Concurrently with the merger, Vivendi will purchase 62.9 million newly issued shares of Activision common stock at a price of $27.50 per share – a premium of 31% to Activision’s average closing price over the past 20 trading days – for a total of $1.7 billion in cash. As a result of these transactions, Vivendi will own an approximate 52% ownership stake in Activision Blizzard on a fully diluted basis.

Within five business days after closing the transaction, Activision Blizzard will launch a $4 billion all-cash tender offer to purchase up to 146.5 million Activision Blizzard common shares at $27.50 per share. The tender offer will be funded by Activision Blizzard’s cash on hand at closing, including the $1.7 billion in cash received from the Vivendi share purchase. In addition, Vivendi has agreed to acquire from Activision Blizzard additional newly issued shares for up to an additional $700 million of Activision common stock at $27.50 per share, the proceeds of which would also be used to fund the tender offer. Any remaining funds required to complete the tender offer will be borrowed by Activision Blizzard from Vivendi or third-party lenders. If the tender offer is fully subscribed, Vivendi will own an approximate 68% ownership stake in Activision Blizzard on a fully diluted basis.

Thusly, Activision effectively has control over Activision and additional Vivendi properties (it's through Vivendi that Activision got Crash and Spyro). Blizzard largely operates as its own entity (and I believe it still has 48 %, the situation's kinda strange), although IIRC recently Activision and Kotick have been putting some pressure on Blizzard.

 

[Karen6969]

Geno's such a weird character to me, because while I think he's likely just as much as any character, every time I see evidence towards him thrown around, I don't see evidence, I see assumptions.


Cacomallow:


It's fake, but today's post didn't change that, because it's 4chan, anyone can come in and say anything anonymously. The fact that it's a video leak that's been up for almost an entire year now when the Nintendo Copyright bots have attacked videos for less, that's not a good look for ol Caco. You'd think, with how many times it's been uploaded and reuploaded that it'd have been killed, but, no, it hasn't. Some people will say that they won't take it down because it'd be suspicious, but they forget that it's bots, bots don't give a **** about that, and the fact that Cacomallow wasn't killed on sight by the bots the minute it was uploaded is VERY telling.


The missing Mii Costume:


Is not evidence, because we've already seen how sporadic these are. Heihachi got dropped on our heads when no one expected it, and we're still missing others from Smash 4 like Rathalos Armor and Lloyd. A lack of info is not a good enough reason to assume, especially since we know that they're still bringing most, if not all, of the old costumes back. Could Geno be upgraded to a full character? Yes, but he could also become a Premium Costume with his theme, never assume this is a 'hint' unless we get another Square character, they bring back the Chocobo hat, but not him.


Gamespot's 'LEAK':

I'm not even going to spend time on this. The video was filmed in June, and Nintendo pulled out of E3 back in March. People seriously are out here trying to claim that Gamespot had access to Nintendo's E3 plans when they pulled out in early March, and they just happened to leak Geno of all things and nothing else, especially odd since there isn't a single credible insider who knows who the next Fighter is currently, let alone do we even know if we're getting one soon.


Mario Tournament:

This is my own speculation but, if we don't get Geno before this, and we don't hear anything about him coming via a trailer drop during this thing, he's as good as dead to me. With how much they're hyping up this Tournament, you'd figure that they would want ALL the Mario content to be either in the game for it, or to be shown off, but if November comes and goes, and assuming Challenger Pack 7 isn't Geno, and Challenger Pack 8 comes sometime in 2021 and it's not hinted to be him during this time, then he's taken a devastating blow in my eyes.

Don’t forget the “hints” that people reference, regarding Jeff Grubb and Imran tweeting about Geno on July 19th right before that mini direct... this one is always hilarious to me because Grubb replied to his own tweet basically telling everyone to stfu because he was joking, and Imran’s tweet was also a reply to Grubb’s original tweet and didn’t even mention Geno. He said “Super Mario RPG Mario in smash would be a dream headline”. How that is interpreted as anything beyond a joke, let alone a direct hint at Geno is beyond me. It is cool to see them tweet things about SMRPG, but interpreting their tweets as Geno hints really seems desperate to me.

 

[Deleted member]

So, yesterday I was arguing with Redditors.

Any Smash news?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

(I find it really interesting that a certain Japanese marathon speculator considered Crash, Tracer and CoD when discussing A-B, but not Spyro.)

From what I've heard, it's because the Spyro games were pretty much unplayable in Japan due to galactically stupid regional differences, and they didn't even bother localizing the Spyro Reignited Trilogy because Japan hated it so much.

 

[Shroob]

From what I've heard, it's because the Spyro games were pretty much unplayable in Japan due to galactically stupid regional differences, and they didn't even bother localizing the Spyro Reignited Trilogy because Japan hated it so much.

Pretty much.


Crash actually stuck a landing in Japan.


The Japanese Spyro games are.....bad.... to put it simply, like, REAL bad.

 

[Rie Sonomura]

From what I've heard, it's because the Spyro games were pretty much unplayable in Japan due to galactically stupid regional differences, and they didn't even bother localizing the Spyro Reignited Trilogy because Japan hated it so much.

fun fact it was actually fresh off the heels of the Porygon controversy, they thought too much happening in a still PoV would cause seizures so instead... they thought giving the game a Resident Evil camera would fix it

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

fun fact it was actually fresh off the heels of the Porygon controversy, they thought too much happening in a still PoV would cause seizures so instead... they thought giving the game a Resident Evil camera would fix it

Oh god.

Tree Tops with a fixed camera.

I've never cringed so hard in my life.

 

[Karen6969]

Pretty much summed up my thoughts on Geno. He's definitely still in the running, but I feel that the evidence people try to use for him is more wishful thinking and, as you said, assumptions being made without any real concrete proof or basis.

Like, I'm not gonna lie, I know that some are trying to say he's likely because there's supposedly a SMRPG remake coming out, but like...Wouldn't that have been a part of the Mario 35th celebrations if that was a thing? Same with Geno himself; If he really was coming, and was CP7, that Mario Direct would've been the perfect time and place to announce it and then date a Sakurai Presents, and yet, not even a brief word about SMRPG. Not even an acknowledgement, from what I remember. To be honest, I feel that the Super Mario 35th stuff hurts him, not helps him.

IDK, I'm not trying to be a fun killer here or be down on Geno, but this is just kind of how I view things with him. If he's coming, the road to getting him will have been very strange.

This is pretty much how I feel too. I’m indifferent to Geno and would actually be quite happy if he got in due to him bringing along SMRPG music and maybe a Bowser’s keep/castle stage. I do dislike Geno speculation though, mainly because it feels like Geno speculation begins with the assumption that he’s in followed by working backwards from there. Of course you can find “hints” for him getting in if you’re 100% convinced he’s coming. The best example of this in the real world is watching/listening to true crime. People tend to become convinced that someone is guilty, and then they find tons of circumstantial evidence surrounding the person.

the point is that no matter what character it is, you can always find something that points to them being in if that is what you want to find

 

[SKX31]

From what I've heard, it's because the Spyro games were pretty much unplayable in Japan due to galactically stupid regional differences, and they didn't even bother localizing the Spyro Reignited Trilogy because Japan hated it so much.

fun fact it was actually fresh off the heels of the Porygon controversy, they thought too much happening in a still PoV would cause seizures so instead... they thought giving the game a Resident Evil camera would fix it

And yeah Cutting Room Floor seemingly confirms it with video footage:

• Spyro is overall far slower, his walking speed receiving a notable decrease, and his charge velocity being roughly on par with his walking speed in international releases. This change was also present in the sequel's Japanese version. Strangely, a Director's Cut of the Japanese release included a bonus feature if one completed the game at 120%, which would restore Spyro's speed to its international variation after holding down L1 & R1 on the file select screen. A little notice informing the player about this feature also exists.
• The camera is zoomed out considerably when compared to the US and European versions of the game, keeping a fixed perspective as opposed to following Spyro directly. In addition to this, the camera fades in and out when Spyro walks into a whirlwind, when he falls down a hole the camera isn't directed towards, and when he enters a level, replacing the "U-turn" animation which pertains to the last action. However, the camera in the "Flight" levels remains identical to the other versions.
• The triangle button is used to re-center the camera, when it's done you can use it to have a closer point of view (just like the international versions). Also, there's no "Active" nor "Passive" camera option.

• Multicolored signposts are scattered very liberally throughout the game, providing textual "hints" if flamed, something which is actually used as a placeholder for unfinished dragon cutscenes in early versions of the game (minus the signposts). However, their frequency, combined with how easily they can be inadvertently activated, renders them as more of an annoyance than anything else.
• You can't jump while charging (the jump was really small in other releases so it's not much of a loss...).

Seems like those changes really did harm the game's chanches there.

 

[Cutie Gwen]

fun fact it was actually fresh off the heels of the Porygon controversy, they thought too much happening in a still PoV would cause seizures so instead... they thought giving the game a Resident Evil camera would fix it

I thought they hacked away at the framerate to drastically slow the game down out of fear for motion sickness due to Japan not being used to the game's speed.

Which is... kinda ironic considering how the remakes went overboard on motion blur

 

[Rie Sonomura]

I thought they hacked away at the framerate to drastically slow the game down out of fear for motion sickness due to Japan not being used to the game's speed.

Which is... kinda ironic considering how the remakes went overboard on motion blur

well you get my point, Japanese marketers thought fast moving things not good, ended up making things worse

 

[Evil Trapezium]

21. SNK -> mostly because Terry came with a lot of content, really

Bold of you to assume that Simea from Crystalis won't come out of nowhere and take us by surprise.

 

[GoodGrief741]

Actually, now that you mention it, neither owns the other. A separate company known as Activision-Blizzard owns them both assuming I ever understood the company heirarchy.

Technically, the company that's now Activision-Blizzard came to be as the result of a merger between Activision and Vivendi, who owned Blizzard, therefore the original Activision owns both Blizzard and Activision Publishing (yeah, there were two companies called Activision even before the merger, companies are weird).

 

[SharkLord]

And yeah Cutting Room Floor seemingly confirms it with video footage:





Seems like those changes really did harm the game's chanches there.

Yeezus. I thought it was just a general lack of popularity in Japan, like Doom or Halo. I didn't know they actively butchered the game for the Japanese release.

 

[dezeray112]

Here is how I personally would rank the companies likelihood for pass 2

-Nintendo (Already in and has a good shot at another)
-SEGA
-Capcom
-Arcsys
-Koei
-Activision
-Bamco
-Falcom
-Square Enix/Disney
-Marvelous
-Microsoft
-Level 5
-Ubisosft
-Konami
-Blizzard
-Bethesda

I think Nintendo is more or less guaranteed spots within the second season pass. Realistically, I believe that Capcom, Bandai Namco and Koei Tecmo are the most likely third party companies to have a spot in my opinion.

 

[MooMew64]

More first parties seem like a pretty safe bet. As for who, that's tough to say outside of rehashed Pokemon discussions or looking back to Rex. I would say Ring Fit Adventure was a likely addition, but that unfortunately was Spirited away, so outside of a few options, there's not that many immediate stand outs. I think a Nintendo newcomer will probably be the one that will really catch us off guard in the end.

This is all, of course, ignoring the inevitability that is Gooigi.

 

[SharkLord]

More first parties seem like a pretty safe bet. As for who, that's tough to say outside of rehashed Pokemon discussions or looking back to Rex. I would say Ring Fit Adventure was a likely addition, but that unfortunately was Spirited away, so outside of a few options, there's not that many immediate stand outs. I think a Nintendo newcomer will probably be the one that will really catch us off guard in the end.

This is all, of course, ignoring the inevitability that is Gooigi.

I won't stop pushing Isaac as a Banjo-esque underdog pick who gets in through fan support, but it's probably pointless to say that he's likely, seeing as underdogs, by definition, have the odds stacked against them.

 

[PacificFun]

I wonder if Nintendo and Sakurai had any interest in using Tomb Raider at one point.

 

[cosmicB]

Geno's such a weird character to me, because while I think he's likely just as much as any character, every time I see evidence towards him thrown around, I don't see evidence, I see assumptions.


Cacomallow:


It's fake, but today's post didn't change that, because it's 4chan, anyone can come in and say anything anonymously. The fact that it's a video leak that's been up for almost an entire year now when the Nintendo Copyright bots have attacked videos for less, that's not a good look for ol Caco. You'd think, with how many times it's been uploaded and reuploaded that it'd have been killed, but, no, it hasn't. Some people will say that they won't take it down because it'd be suspicious, but they forget that it's bots, bots don't give a **** about that, and the fact that Cacomallow wasn't killed on sight by the bots the minute it was uploaded is VERY telling.


The missing Mii Costume:


Is not evidence, because we've already seen how sporadic these are. Heihachi got dropped on our heads when no one expected it, and we're still missing others from Smash 4 like Rathalos Armor and Lloyd. A lack of info is not a good enough reason to assume, especially since we know that they're still bringing most, if not all, of the old costumes back. Could Geno be upgraded to a full character? Yes, but he could also become a Premium Costume with his theme, never assume this is a 'hint' unless we get another Square character, they bring back the Chocobo hat, but not him.


Gamespot's 'LEAK':

I'm not even going to spend time on this. The video was filmed in June, and Nintendo pulled out of E3 back in March. People seriously are out here trying to claim that Gamespot had access to Nintendo's E3 plans when they pulled out in early March, and they just happened to leak Geno of all things and nothing else, especially odd since there isn't a single credible insider who knows who the next Fighter is currently, let alone do we even know if we're getting one soon.


Mario Tournament:

This is my own speculation but, if we don't get Geno before this, and we don't hear anything about him coming via a trailer drop during this thing, he's as good as dead to me. With how much they're hyping up this Tournament, you'd figure that they would want ALL the Mario content to be either in the game for it, or to be shown off, but if November comes and goes, and assuming Challenger Pack 7 isn't Geno, and Challenger Pack 8 comes sometime in 2021 and it's not hinted to be him during this time, then he's taken a devastating blow in my eyes.

Doesn't the Gamestop leak get a little more credible after finding out Nintendo is allegedly 5 months behind based on the 3D collection and Mario 35 supposed to having their reveal and release in April? That puts the kill switch for Geno at November. Also there's the "insiders" teasing Geno the day before the July 20 direct that was allegedly going to have the reveal of 7 before plans apparently get switched around (if they're to be believed). And then there's other "evidence" like the Legacy XP takedown and other such things.

This is just me playing devil's advocate by the way. I don't have faith in any of this meaning anything, but I'd like to see more arguments against it. I've also had the Geno thread blocked for over a month now, so I have no idea what the discourse is in there or if any more circumstantial evidence has shown itself.

 

[Shroob]

Doesn't the Gamestop leak get a little more credible after finding out Nintendo is allegedly 5 months behind based on the 3D collection and Mario 35 supposed to having their reveal and release in April? That puts the kill switch for Geno at November. Also there's the "insiders" teasing Geno the day before the July 20 direct that was allegedly going to have the reveal of 7 before plans apparently get switched around (if they're to be believed). And then there's other "evidence" like the Legacy XP takedown and other such things.

This is just me playing devil's advocate by the way. I don't have faith in any of this meaning anything, but I'd like to see more arguments against it. I've also had the Geno thread blocked for over a month now, so I have no idea what the discourse is in there or if any more circumstantial evidence has shown itself.

I think the question is why would Gamespot have E3 news when Nintendo officially pulled out in like, the first week of March.


As for the Insiders, Imran teased Min Min only a day before she dropped, and others on ResetEra said they only got their press kit info like, a day/a few hours before she came out. Even Shinobi's Banjo leak was only a couple days before she dropped. I find it very, VERY hard to believe that they've been sitting on Geno all this time and NO ONE's slipped up or been seeking extreme clout.



And as for the Legacy XP thing... people always point to Geno, and always seem to ignore that the game has SEVEN/EIGHT characters not in Brawl but they ARE in Ultimate, not including Geno:


Dr.Mario
Young Link
OoT Ganondorf(A bit of a stretch on this one)
Pichu
Mewtwo
Roy
Lucina


and, I dunno.....


****ing Ridley?



But no, it's 100% Geno and not these 7(8) characters that are big selling points for Ultimate, between EVERYONE IS HERE and "****ING RIDLEY".