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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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Animegamingnerd

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What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:
  • Nintendo
  • Capcom
  • Bandai-Namco
  • Sega
  • Blizzard
  • Bethesda
  • ArcSystem Works
  • Level 5
  • Ubisoft
  • Koei Techmo
  • Disney
  • Microsoft
  • Sony
Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

EDIT: Forgot Microsoft and Sony. lol
Nintendo: Very high, I think we will get at least two more. In fact I have go on record stating that I think Rex is the most likely candidate for FP7 considering Min Min was FP6 and Sakurai's comments on why Xenoblade 2 and ARMS didn't have a rep when the game launched.

Capcom: Decently high, mainly for Monster Hunter as Nintendo will treat Rise one of their biggest games for 2021 even moreso then they did Dragon Quest 11.

Bandai-Namco: Hard to say, even though they are the developer behind Ultimate and Smash 4, they seem to lack the interest in anything much representation in the game and the most likely one in my eyes ended up being a Mii costume again.

Sega: Not really feeling confident in a new Sega rep right now, it just feels unlikely to me.

Blizzard: Nah I don't see either Activision nor Blizzard getting, in fact I wouldn't be shock if this pass is entirely Japanese characters again.

ArcSystem Works: Yeah I can see it happening, they manage to get a spirit event in Smash, they have several games on Switch (even though Strive seems to be skipping the system)

Level 5: A Yokai Watch rep is probably the only one I can see coming from them, but even that franchise is a massive decline in Japan coming from its massive popularity on the 3DS in Japan.

Koei Tecmo: Nintendo might as well buy them due to how many exclusives they make for the system, in facts strange a Koei Tecmo character isn't in Smash.

Disney: -100%

Microsoft: Not really especially Banjo or any character after didn't really come anything MS related like Mii costumes (and before you mention Cuphead, Studio MDR owns the full IP rights to the franchise)

Sony: Somehow lower odds then Disney and they were at negative 100% for crying out loud.
 

SharkLord

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But that Mallow hat alone is probably higher-poly than the entire Steve mii costume you just showed me, that's the point I'm making here. Point me towards a mii hat mod that's as high-poly and quality as the Mallow hat.
What I'm more curious about is if anyone can even be bothered to make a hat of that quality. I don't know if there's anyone with the skill AND the passion to make a hat of that quality, much less for the sole purpose of disproving some random 4chan "leak."
 

Shroob

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But that Mallow hat alone is probably higher-poly than the entire Steve mii costume you just showed me, that's the point I'm making here. Point me towards a mii hat mod that's as high-poly and quality as the Mallow hat.
Gonna be straight ya, there aren't any.


But I don't believe Cacomallow in the slightest regardless. To me, the only thing that matters was the proof that it was 100% doable, which people did.
 
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MintPepsi

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Gonna be straight ya, there aren't any.


But I don't believe Cacomallow in the slightest regardless. To me, the only thing that matters was the proof that it was 100% doable, which people did.
If there aren't any then cacomallow is still possible in my eyes. Mii hat mods are 100% doable but that doesn't mean a mii hat mod on the level of cacomallow is doable. Until one happens then I'm going to stay neutral on cacomallow, not putting all my stock into thinking it's real but not completely disregarding it.
I get why you don't believe cacomallow whatsoever though, the amount of time that has passed with neither of those costumes surfacing is definitely strange and points more towards it being fake.
 

Shroob

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Outside of beating a dead horse


This week's going to be interesting. Monday and Tuesday are holidays in Japan, so that gives us Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We have confirmed BotW HW stuff on Saturday, and TGS happens then as well.



Will Nintendo keep up their streak of info drops? As it stands right now, the only big things they have left to talk about seem to be Crown Tundra and Smash, assuming they don't decide to suddenly start talking about the Pikmin 3 remake.
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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I don't understand how people fine CacoMallow plausible. If it were real, that means that the dev team had almost 7 entire waves of Mii Costumes done before Terry's release at the very least. Even if you assume they could make them that fast, why on Earth would they quick burn sets of costumes that they wont need for an entire year or more?
 
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Calamitas

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Bet the guy who faked Cacomellow would be laughing his ass off if he knew that people still argued whether or not it was legit about a year after it first dropped.

Outside of beating a dead horse

This week's going to be interesting. Monday and Tuesday are holidays in Japan, so that gives us Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. We have confirmed BotW HW stuff on Saturday, and TGS happens then as well.

Will Nintendo keep up their streak of info drops? As it stands right now, the only big things they have left to talk about seem to be Crown Tundra and Smash, assuming they don't decide to suddenly start talking about the Pikmin 3 remake.
God, it keeps throwing me off that elsewhere in the world, the new week apparently starts with Sunday instead of Monday. . .
 

Animegamingnerd

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Gonna be straight ya, there aren't any.


But I don't believe Cacomallow in the slightest regardless. To me, the only thing that matters was the proof that it was 100% doable, which people did.
Its been so longer since Cacomallow first surface to the point, we are just a matter of weeks of it being 1 year old meaning that roughly the same gap of time between that video being released and now then there was when that video first released and the release of Ultimate.

It was posted before Terry, Byleth, and Min Min were released and just weeks after Banjo released. Nintendo never filed any copyright takes on any video showing it.

I still can't believe some insists its real, much like you basically said at this point there is no evidence in my eyes for it being real. It was in fact likely made by someone who is very talented and knows how to mod Ultimate better then most Ultimate modders, that just wanted to **** with the Doom and Super Mario RPG fandoms.
 

Animegamingnerd

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Bet the guy who faked Cacomellow would be laughing his ass off if he knew that people still argued whether or not it was legit about a year after it first dropped.



God, it keeps throwing me off that elsewhere in the world, the new week apparently starts with Sunday instead of Monday. . .
This is probably why no one has come forward in claiming they made it, otherwise the joke would instantly die.
 

GoodGrief741

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Show me someone who gives Cacomallow the benefit of the doubt and doesn't support Geno and/or Doomguy. That's the only scenario where I can imagine a worthwhile conversation could be had about such an obviously clear-cut topic. Otherwise, I can't say I'm surprised that people keep parading it about. Disappointed, maybe, but not surprised.
 

ZephyrZ

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Just because I think it's premature to call it dead, that doesn't mean I think Cacomallow is real is real.
I believed the leak could have been real but now that a year has passed, I'm on team fake at point.
I know at this point its mostly just semantics but how long do we have to wait for it to stop being "premature"? Until all of Fighter Pass 2 is revealed?
 

PSIGuy

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"Nintendo would never make content and sit on it for months!" we say, as Nintendo spends the rest of the year announcing things they intended for a March/April reveal.
If we don't know when a Mii Costume is made and when it's finally added we can't say whether it's a realistic timeframe for content or not. They might have all the Mii Costumes already made for all we know - they're far simpler than fighters, they already have the licenses and can be worked on at any time.
 

7NATOR

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What do you guys think of the chances of each companies's chances of getting a fighter? Iirc, the contestants (when excluding indie companies) are:
  • Nintendo
  • Capcom
  • Bandai-Namco
  • Sega
  • Blizzard
  • Bethesda
  • ArcSystem Works
  • Level 5
  • Ubisoft
  • Koei Techmo
  • Disney
  • Microsoft
  • Sony
Child companies's IPs are also up for consideration via their parent company...Hopefully I didn't list any child companies given that convention. Let me know if I forgot a reasonable contender that is not a child of any of these companies.

EDIT: Forgot Microsoft and Sony. lol
Nintendo: Already got a Fighter, so 100%. For another one, Good chance

Capcom: Monster Hunter costumes have to come back. Dante probably will be represented in some way as well. whether as Fighters remains to be seen

Namco: Maybe, Maybe not. Lloyd has to come back, otherwise who Knows

Sega: Maybe, Maybe Not. Arle's Absence is weird though, and perhaps other characters

Konami (I'll add it here): Maybe, Maybe not. The Goemon costume being added could have been because Simon and Richter were base game newcomers. if we get another New costume though (and same goes for any other represented company) Chances massively drop

Bilzzard: Probably not. Seem to be no Overwatch confirmed

Bethasda: Very surprised if they got in. Vault boy Costume might soft deconfirm

Arc System Works: Probably not. Could see it happening, but I'm not counting on it. Sol and Ragna being represented seems likley, but whether as fighters is the question

Level-5: Will Definitely get content in Some Form, but whether it's a fighter remains to be seen.

Ubisoft: Still surprised if character got in, due to Mii Costumes

Koei-Tecmo: Ryu has to show up at some point, whether as a Fighter remains to be seen.

Disney: No

Microsoft: Banjo having no Costumes come with him either is a Good sign of more Microsoft content, or a Bad sign if Nintendo wasn't willing to even get Mii's of RARE characters, never mind bigger Microsoft properties like Steve? and Chief

Sony: They did go to that Smash Tournament thing in the Spa, but probably no fighter, and perhaps nothing at all as well.

I don't understand how people fine CacoMallow plausible. If it were real, that means that the dev team had almost 7 entire waves of Mii Costumes done before Terry's release at the very least. Even if you assume they could make them that fast, why on Earth would they quick burn sets of costumes that they wont need for an entire year or more?
The only thing I could think of is that if there's a Separate team for Mii Costumes (which seems plausible), they might have been working real hard on all the waves regardless of Character progress and such

even thing that poses other problems. Mii costumes I believe take longer than some might expect, especially new ones. I Believe Sans took like 6 Months. Obviously Sans is a Full Model and Mallow and Cacodemon are just hats, but i do think there still need to be time to model and such, along with the other Mii costumes, I can't see them already being done Mallow and Cacodemon, when there are other costumes that is more viable to work on at the time, if those costumes come with Specific character that's set to release soon

FP2 was finalized in November, which is the month Cacomallow came out. I assume Release order was also being decided as well. I can't see them being done with the Costumes in Cacomallow in FP2 if Doomguy and Geno are meant to be in. even then, I would think they would have Cacodemon release with Vault boy Mii costume. It's just weird all around, and I don't think it's real

----------------------------------------------

On the Topic of Legacy XP, I just think that takedown was weird because they took it down in a period where it wasn't at it's peak. Legacy XP was at it's peak in May of 2018, which is right before Ultimate got revealed at E3, with Ridley, and Ridley was in that mod. Plus when Legaxy XP got taken down, i Believe 2 months later Project + Got alot of hype and that mod was not taken down,

I guess also Papagenos said someone came to him with info about evidence for Geno and Waluigi, and other characters that Papagenos says to be unlikely. It's heavily speculated it had to do with Legacy XP being tookdown, and the other characters being Metal Sonic and Shadow

As someone who's most Wanted i Shadow, while I would love to use Legacy XP as evidence for him, I'm not sure. I mean, same with Waluigi, there are Ultimate Mods of those Two (though they are just Skins), but they aren't taken down. Waluigi is also in brawl minus, though would say that mod is smaller. I personally thought if that mod was for one of the characters, it would be Geno, since at this point Geno hasn't had a Real 3D Model, so if Geno gets in as Premium Costume or Playable character, it would be a first. yes
 

epicmartin7

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Show me someone who gives Cacomallow the benefit of the doubt and doesn't support Geno and/or Doomguy. That's the only scenario where I can imagine a worthwhile conversation could be had about such an obviously clear-cut topic. Otherwise, I can't say I'm surprised that people keep parading it about. Disappointed, maybe, but not surprised.
I don't support Geno nor Doomguy...Doomdude...Doomslayer...whatchamacallthem and I got to say... the mii costumes do look really great. Still think it's pretty much fake tho :V
 

Captain Shwampy

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"Nintendo would never make content and sit on it for months!" we say, as Nintendo spends the rest of the year announcing things they intended for a March/April reveal.
If we don't know when a Mii Costume is made and when it's finally added we can't say whether it's a realistic timeframe for content or not. They might have all the Mii Costumes already made for all we know - they're far simpler than fighters, they already have the licenses and can be worked on at any time.
Mario odyssey went gold like almost a year before its release

They tend to plan out release dates like that

Not that i believe the Cacomallow leak
 

Cosmic77

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Random dude on internet: "Yeah, it was me guys. I made the CacoMallow leak."

Geno Smash fanbase: "OK BUT DO WE KNOW IF HE WAS LYING HE MIGHT NOT HAVE DONE IT BECAUSE LOOK AT THOSE DETAILS NO WAY IT'S FAKE PLUS IT LINES UP WITH WHAT I HEARD FROM OTHER RELIABLE SOURCES WHO SAID THEY HEARD GENO WAS IN SMASH WHICH MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THE COSTUME IS STILL MISSING AND..."

Oy vey. I swear, if I had the power to kill any leak...
 

SMAASH! Puppy

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One thing to consider: If we're assuming that Nintendo just made all of the costumes in a matter of months, then it would also be reasonable to assume most, if not all of them were done before Joker released. If that's the case, it would be reasonable to assume that all of the Mii Costumes were negotiated at the same time as the fighters. In fact, it might be a reasonable assumption anyway. If that is true, then if one makes the assumption that anything added before the second pass was decided is fair game, then it should follow that even the newer first pass DLC costumes are still fair game, as they were decided about a year in advance; they just released much later since they're connected to fighter releases.
 

Shroob

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Random dude on internet: "Yeah, it was me guys. I made the CacoMallow leak."

Geno Smash fanbase: "OK BUT DO WE KNOW IF HE WAS LYING HE MIGHT NOT HAVE DONE IT BECAUSE LOOK AT THOSE DETAILS NO WAY IT'S FAKE PLUS IT LINES UP WITH WHAT I HEARD FROM OTHER RELIABLE SOURCES WHO SAID THEY HEARD GENO WAS IN SMASH WHICH MAKES SENSE BECAUSE THE COSTUME IS STILL MISSING AND..."

Oy vey. I swear, if I had the power to kill any leak...
All it takes

Is a spark


To cause a fire
 

Michael the Spikester

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Papagenos talks about how Monster Hunter could have been planned for the Base game and also notes how the Daisy skirt glitch fits Monster Hunter.
 
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NotGenerico

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This strikes me as interesting as this is a very different answer than what Suda usually gives when asked about Smash. He's usually honest with saying that Travis isn't in the game. I wonder what changed.
 
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Strong-Arm

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Papagenos talks about how Monster Hunter could have been planned for the Base game and also notes how the Daisy skirt glitch fits Monster Hunter.
I really cant take anything papagenos says seriously honestly and idk why anyone does. Hes a fun speculation guy but hes never been right about anything so I dont think anything he says holds any meaning at all
 

7NATOR

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This strikes me as interesting as this is a very different answer than what Suda usually gives when asked about Smash. He's usually honest with saying that Travis isn't in the game. I wonder what changed.
Travis is probably in the game this time...

Now whether this is as a Playable character, Mii costume, or Spirit remains to be seen.
 

Hydreigonfan01

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AFAIK, the latest we could get back to a Mii Costume being designed before being released was through this.

This article was posted on March 2019, while the Byleth presentation was pre-recorded in December 2019. About 10 months. We've now been hitting nearly 11 months since Cacomallow. Even if you use this article's timeframe, claiming Cacomallow is real is legitimately grasping for straws.
 
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"I know Cacomellow has been proven fake many times, but what if it happens...?"
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SMAASH! Puppy

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This strikes me as interesting as this is a very different answer than what Suda usually gives when asked about Smash. He's usually honest with saying that Travis isn't in the game. I wonder what changed.
Has he given an honest answer after around fall of last year? If so it means nothing, if not, then it could mean that No More Heroes is getting something.

EDIT: If it's a Spirit Event, we'll see it much later, if it's a Mii Costume or a Fighter, it would probably be with the next Fighter, or the one after that.
 
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N3ON

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This strikes me as interesting as this is a very different answer than what Suda usually gives when asked about Smash. He's usually honest with saying that Travis isn't in the game. I wonder what changed.

Seems like I've messed up the Twitter link. I'm not sure how to fix it, but it's this one: https://twitter.com/TravisSSBU/status/1307424241923624960
I'd agree, that is an auspicious sign for Travis. Considering historically Suda tries to rally support for him even when the topic isn't Smash, him being mum when it actually is is conspicuously uncharacteristic.

Of course, Travis could also just wind up a spirit or a Mii costume - but this does strike me that he'll be in there in some capacity.
 

YeppersPeppers

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This strikes me as interesting as this is a very different answer than what Suda usually gives when asked about Smash. He's usually honest with saying that Travis isn't in the game. I wonder what changed.
SUDA always seemed to be quick to say Travis wasn't going to be DLC during the era of the first Fighters Pass, both when asked and even unprompted, so this is definitely an interesting change in answer.
 

Captain Shwampy

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Wasnt a SNK guy asked about terry in smash during FP1 and he basically said "I hope mr sakurai makes it happen" or something like that
 
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Strong-Arm

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I think trying to "guess" whos gonna get in at this point is hard to say but right now if I had to go on gut feelings Id say the characters I have the most faith in terms of actually making it in are like

a pokemon(most likely cinderace), axel stone, Travis(most likely as a sword costume tho), Freddy(As a brawler costume), a capcom character(phoenix wright, amateratsu, or dante seem to have the best chances to me), a soul calibur or tales character, crash, and honestly thats all i can think of in terms of chars who i think realistically have a chance atm. I dont think doomguy has a chance anymore even if i do want him

ofc thats all just goin on gut feeling so i dont expect to be right but last pass i guessed hero, banjo, byleth, and terry so maybe ill get lucky with my guesses again
 

SneakyLink

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Wasnt a SNK guy asked about terry in smash during FP1 and he basically said "I hope mr sakurai makes it happen" or something like that
I don't remember exactly but I think they said SNK should have a playable dog character if they get a Smash slot or something?

There's a playable dog in a SNK game?
 
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