Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

[Rie Sonomura]

Are you guys talking about this?

Hmmm... there’s too much differences in the Smash version to consider it a lazy photo edit of Min Min’s ARMS victory screen, plus the details of her outfit line up if she were to strike the pose facing the opposite direction

I agree that the font does look strangely off, but it could be due to the camera angle

I’m kinda 55-45 on this. Could go either way but seems just a BIT more likely to be real than fake, font appearance notwithstanding

 

[Michael the Spikester]

Hmmm... there’s too much differences in the Smash version to consider it a lazy photo edit of Min M ARMS victory screen, plus the details of her outfit line up if she were to strike the pose facing the opposite direction

I agree that the font does look strangely off, but it could be due to the camera angle

I’m kinda 55-45 on this. Could go either way but seems just a BIT more likely to be real than fake, font appearance notwithstanding

COME ON MINMIN!

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I saw this yesterday & its 99.99% probably just a coincidence, but there seems to be a pattern going on.

First Column: Nintendo character that isn’t super hype, but not hated either (Once Plant came out that is)

Second Column: Internet breaking/“THEY’RE IN?!” Character

Third Column: Series that started on the NES

Fourth Column: Rare character

Fifth Column: This just seems like a free space so far lmao

Sixth Column: Nintendo shill pick

Like I said, it’s probably just a coincidence but it’s fun to see how it’s lined up like that so far.

The fifth column is what ultimately makes me think it’s a coincidence though; I can’t really see anything similar between Isabelle & Terry besides them being cool characters that didn’t make the fanbase explode one way or another.

So...

Master Chief, Excitebiker, Conker, Arthur, and Cinderace confirmed?

 

[SpectreJordan]

I'd keep an eye on Rex. Like it or not, after getting a Three Houses and ARMS character as DLC, a Xenoblade Chronicles 2 character seems more than a little likely to me. While I wouldn't call him super likely, I don't see why people act like it became completely irrelevant considering it's released after ARMS.

I would like Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure to get playable characters but I don't think they're happening.

I’ve been saying this for a while. It seems to be like Nintendo wants Xenoblade to become one of their core franchises. Another Xenoblade character in Smash will definitely help that goal.

I’m not 100% sold on Rex, since I think they could do someone from XBC1 to promote the remake. But I still think Rex has a good chance too.

 

[zumaddy]

Are you guys talking about this?

Oh thanks, that's what was being referenced. I'm not too convinced honestly, she looks a bit strange and the text looks off. Doesn't look fake right off the back though. Not getting my hopes up yet for the Ramen Bomber unless I see her myself :D

Man, speaking of that video I really don't want a SWSH DLC Pokemon because I find them all pretty unappealing design wise (except for the Legendary bird forms). Would rather have Toxtricity or Zacian

 

[Trevenant]

Enter the Gungeon Spirit event confirmed.

Much like yesterday though what would it's moveset be?

pac

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Are you guys talking about this?

About the Min-Min one specifically, I think it's a modified version of her ARMS model but I could be wrong.

 

[SpectreJordan]

So...

Master Chief, Excitebiker, Conker, Arthur, and Cinderace confirmed?

I’d say something along the lines of:

Master Chief/Crash/Sora/Doom Slayer, Ryu Hayabusa, Rash/Conker, ??? & Rex/Pokemon.

I definitely think Hayabusa is up next for the NES era pick, whether it’s the third character or not lol

 

[Trevenant]

Hmmm... there’s too much differences in the Smash version to consider it a lazy photo edit of Min Min’s ARMS victory screen, plus the details of her outfit line up if she were to strike the pose facing the opposite direction

I agree that the font does look strangely off, but it could be due to the camera angle

I’m kinda 55-45 on this. Could go either way but seems just a BIT more likely to be real than fake, font appearance notwithstanding

The m at the start of the name still looks as thin, despite the camera perspective favouring that certain angle. I honestly don't know why people are taking this seriously whether it be bias or what have you.

 

[Phoenixio]

I believe that Byleth was always planned but I also believe that the pass had a designated 1st party slot because the when the whole pass is bought it's at a one pack discount. They needed one without royalties to make economic sense.

That's not how royalties and pricing work though... Nintendo would probably cut its own profits a bit, not the royalties. And even in a pack consisting only of third parties, there's plenty of room to cut on the price. Royalties are not 90% of the price, after all, probably the other way around actually and closer to 10%. Plus it's probably part of the arrangement: X% on sales from individual DLC, Y% for those who purchase the bundle.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

It's too (conveniently) washed out to really tell anything about the model. The letters, however, are way too thin and spread out. Calling it right now, this is fake. You won't be able to convince me otherwise even if Min Min is the fighter.

EDIT: Seeing the side by side comparison, Min Min's shorts are now more skin tight, and her shoes are more blocky. Suuuuper fake.

 

[OnyanRings]

Are you guys talking about this?

Well, we all know the Min Min leak is fake since the ARMS rep is obviously going to be Lola Pop

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Rex/Pokemon.

Cutie Gwen notwithstanding, I don't think Rex would generate much hate.

 

[TheCJBrine]

Are you guys talking about this?

Eh, seems fake. Her foot looks like it’s been twisted around too far (either that or it’s a weird angle and they made her shoe tips flat for some reason), and idk about her name’s font but it does kinda look like the first “MIN” was typed out in one go at a certain size and the other “MIN” another size, just a drop shadow being applied.

edit: yeah nevermind he compared the font to an ingame screenshot of Little Mac’s victory and it’s definitely fake.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

They could always just add onto it.

ARMS is going to be getting more spirits despite there being 5 already in the base game (and maybe some ARMS themed mii costumes too. I think half of the FP Vol 1 picks came with a mii costume from their game, or series, so ARMS getting like Biff as a head costume isn't that farfetched)

We don't have spirits of Dormarch, Brigid, and Pandoria like with do with Pyra & Mythra, and Poppi (who's just her alpha form). Not to mention Malos, Jin, Amalthus, an Ardainian Soldier, and the prequel characters from Torna the Golden Country as potential spirits. And I really doubt 3 songs from a game with 105 going by the official soundtrack is gonna make Sakurai shut down the idea of Rex joining Smash if Nintendo suggested him.

That's not my point though. No, base game content no longer precludes content from getting in as DLC, but there's still additional points to be made about the intentional design choices made on an individual case-by-case basis as we have to with all content. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 got put in an interesting position in which its main character was the lead Mii Costume for the entire first season of DLC in Smash Ultimate. I called him the biggest single disconfirm at the time I saw that because he was put in a position where he was included as DLC, just not as an actual fighter and stuck behind a more expensive pass. That still makes me suspect of his potential inclusion since it seemingly puts him in a weird position. Sure, there's no longer a need to incentivize purchasing the original Fighter's Pass, so maybe that does help him, but it could also just as easily end up hurting him in the long run if Nintendo is happy with where things are at.

As I said before, Shulk ironically is back to being the best advertising rep for Xenoblade in Smash and they don't have to invest a dime to achieve that reality, and we don't know if Rex will continue forward as a particularly important character in Xenoblade. ARMS by comparison did not have any playable representation as a franchise, so it initially makes more sense to invest back into it if they intend to continue the brand moving forward. Again, that doesn't preclude Rex's inclusion, but it also puts in an additionally awkward situation. Sure, Rex has become a bit of a fan favorite in recent times, and that certainly helps him as well, but I'm just looking at his situation across the board.

I feel like people focus far too much on the "Sakurai wouldn't shoot down an idea because content is in the base game" part of defenses of certain characters and concepts. The existence of the content in its base game or DLC state is much less important than why that content was implemented in the way it initially was and if anything has changed since that initial point in time that content was chosen. An issue like "bad timing" can no longer be an issue once you start talking additional inclusions post the decision making period for example, but other factors are less likely to be resolved so easily.

 

[Trevenant]

Compare the M in Macs name and then Min Mins and just the overall spacing etc and then tell me it's fake.

 

[Perkilator]

Compare the M in Macs name and then Min Mins and just the overall spacing etc and then tell me it's fake.

MmmmmmYEP, it's fake.

 

[Guybrush20X6]

Cutie Gwen notwithstanding, I don't think Rex would generate much hate.

Have you forgotten the seven page arguments that would spawn every time someone mention Pyra's name?

 

[slrigeigdew]

Compare the M in Macs name and then Min Mins and just the overall spacing etc and then tell me it's fake.

Wow Min Min looks amazing!

Spoiler

It's still fake

 

[dezeray112]

Compare the M in Macs name and then Min Mins and just the overall spacing etc and then tell me it's fake.

The M on Mac is much more bolder than Min Min's text. I'm leaning on fake as well although we'll wait and see if Min-Min is the ARMS fighter or not soon enough.

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

Have you forgotten the seven page arguments that would spawn every time someone mention Pyra's name?

And guess who started them? lol

 

[Speed Weed]

alright, so i have a potential pass 2 i made here. keep in mind that i don't think this will be our actual lineup, but i do think it's a plausible one at the very least

1. ARMS: We already know this one, it could be Springo, it could be Min Min, it could be Max Brass, hell, it could even be Helix for all we know.

2. Phoenix Wright (Decently-sized third-party): I honestly feel people undersell Wright too much in favor of Dante. I think they're more even than people claim. Capcom makes sense for a new rep and Ace Attorney I think would be a good candidate for the Dragon Quest or Banjo of this pass: they may not be a super huge character who gets everyone crapping their pants (well at least not outside of Japan in DQ's case or hardcore Smash circles in Banjo's case), but they're still very much a big and notable addition that would make a lot of people happy.

3. Crash (The Big One): I'm thinkin' he'd be the Joker of this pass: the big hype selling point that makes everyone go nuts. As a result, they'd also be able to sell this pass with "Hey look, Crash Bandicoot is in this, go buy it!" Again, he's this pass' big one. The icon. I also think we'd get the biggest character in the first half because that's just how you do marketing. Other potential characters for this spot include Master Chief, Lara Croft and Dragonborn.

4. Sakura Shinguji (Same criteria as Wright): Sakura I feel is a sleeper pick, cause Sakura Wars is surprisingly huge in Japan, even edging out Sega's actual mascot, Sonic. Now, if it were up to me, I'd probably pick Axel, but putting my bias aside, i think Sakura edges him out by a bit. Also, sure, Bayonnaise and Society Man are a thing, but we haven't really had a "true" second Sega rep yet. As in, a character that Sega actually created. Arle, Kiryu or Phantasy Star could also happen I guess.

5. Xenoblade: Let's be real: there is NO WAY ARMS is the only first-party we're getting. And Xenoblade is a very real possibility. Now, I think it could be Elma, Rex (gwen pls don't kill me) or even Fiora. Either way, I got a gut feeling about Xeno. Had the spirit event not happened, I probably would have given this spot to Ring Fit instead.

6. Lloyd Irving (Same as Wright and Sakura): I actually had a hard time deciding on the last one, as i felt the previous 5 had already more or less covered all bases. Basically, if Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest planted the seeds for JRPGs, Tales helped them grow. I guess Yuri could also happen, but I'm feeling Lloyd. Also, the great thing about Lloyd is that he'd go well at any point in the pass. He wouldn't be a disappointing finisher, but he's not so big that it'd make more marketing sense to stick him at the beginning.

i know this pass might feel a little too standard, but i honestly feel it'd be a good one, and it adhers to the smash team's approach of going for multiple audiences. so, what do y'all think?

 

[Michael the Spikester]

snip

Its got Phoenix Wright and Crash. I'd be satisfied.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

Something to think about with Rex: When we got Chrom (as an echo, mind you) he was a main protagonist of an older Fire Emblem title. Three Houses was in development at the time and the latest game was...Shadow of Valentia?

More or less, I don't know that Rex can be written off just yet. There's one bit of precedent to look back at that could support him getting in despite not being the latest protagonist.

 

[Mushroomguy12]

View attachment 273827

I saw this yesterday & its 99.99% probably just a coincidence, but there seems to be a pattern going on.

First Column: Nintendo character that isn’t super hype, but not hated either (Once Plant came out that is)

Second Column: Internet breaking/“THEY’RE IN?!” Character

Third Column: Series that started on the NES

Fourth Column: Rare character

Fifth Column: This just seems like a free space so far lmao

Sixth Column: Nintendo shill pick

Like I said, it’s probably just a coincidence but it’s fun to see how it’s lined up like that so far.

The fifth column is what ultimately makes me think it’s a coincidence though; I can’t really see anything similar between Isabelle & Terry besides them being cool characters that didn’t make the fanbase explode one way or another.

I know who the Rare character will be!

 

[Will]

Are you guys talking about this?

Should I? Is there good reason to?

 

[XorahnGaia]

Something to think about with Rex: When we got Chrom (as an echo, mind you) he was a main protagonist of an older Fire Emblem title. Three Houses was in development at the time and the latest game was...Shadow of Valentia?

More or less, I don't know that Rex can be written off just yet. There's one bit of precedent to look back at that could support him getting in despite not being the latest protagonist.

SoV came out in 2017. Ultimate project plan was finalized (with the exception of Incineroar) at the end of 2015. So the latest title was Fates (in Japan).

 

[SNEKeater]

About Astral Chain, I'd really love to see Akira in Smash. It's curious because, while I liked and enjoyed the game a lot, I don't think that the game is super incredible or something like that. I believe that a sequel would have a lot of potential, because Astral Chain has a lot of cool ideas, and some of these ideas could and should be refined.
But when it comes to Smash, I just think that Akira Howard could be an incredible pick, mainly in terms of moveset and playstyle, but also the music, the stage and aesthetic the game could bring to Smash. In that sense, Astral Chain would be really unique in Smash in almost every aspect. For me Akira would be one of the most exciting first party options for Smash.

Not that I think Astral Chain has any chance for DLC. Maybe if we have another pass, but that's really unlikely in my opinion.

 

[Dinoman96]

Something to think about with Rex: When we got Chrom (as an echo, mind you) he was a main protagonist of an older Fire Emblem title. Three Houses was in development at the time and the latest game was...Shadow of Valentia?

More or less, I don't know that Rex can be written off just yet. There's one bit of precedent to look back at that could support him getting in despite not being the latest protagonist.

Chrom will never be a good example because quite literally the only reason he's playable is just because they could make him a glorified alt costume of Roy, just without the hilt sweetspot and with Ike's up B.

All in all, it's just a consolation prize for him missing his one brief window of opportunity back in Smash 4, same thing with Dark Samus. So unless you're saying Rex could end up as an echo of Shulk....

 

[PeridotGX]

so i'm cobbling together a potential pass 2, and i wanted y'all's help with something:

what other first-parties, including assists and spirits, do you people think could happen, whether it's because of promotion, fan demand, or sinply presence in current nintendo

I still think it's suspicious there wasn't a PMD spirit event. I think we're getting a PMD rep, be it Grovyle, Gengar, Gardevoir, or whoever.

 

[Professor Pumpkaboo]

Dont matter who thr arms character is, 7 isnt gonna be anyone I want anyway

 

[Guynamednelson]

All in all, it's just a consolation prize for him missing his one brief window of opportunity back in Smash 4, same thing with Dark Samus

Considering K. Rool isn't an echo, it's more like Dark Samus wasn't as demanded as Ridley and Sakurai didn't want to move on from the idea that Chrom couldn't be unique.

 

[Cosmic77]

If Smash speculation was as simple of a science as some think it is, we probably would've predicted most of the DLC by now.

Will Rex get in Smash? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, I'm not writing him off just because he doesn't match what we've gotten so far. A lot of people wrote ARMS off for this exact reason, and despite the weird announcement in March, it managed to contradict a lot of the rules and guidelines people were using to predict who would be F6.

 

[zumaddy]

I'm biased, but I'm fairly confident Xeno-SOMETHING is going be in, whether that's KOS-MOS, an XB1 rep, Elma or Rex (yes I know Xenosaga and Xenoblade is different). No X music in particular strikes me as odd.

Speaking of Chrom... I once had a DLC related dream about him haha. Sakurai was in a presentation in an all-white room and announced he was going to show off the next FP character, and it was Chrom... but unique and with a new model. Sakurai said he always wanted to make a unique Chrom so he did for DLC, but they didn't have time to make a trailer so his reveal was him just beating up Jigglypuff in-game for a few minutes??

 

[Rie Sonomura]

Hmm...

In acknowledgement and out of respect to current events, we have decided to postpone this weekend's regional activity of the Super #SmashBrosUltimate Online Open May 2020 tournament. We will provide information on a new time for this event soon. pic.twitter.com/WegvOExsne

— Nintendo Versus (@NintendoVS) June 5, 2020

The Splatoon 2 tournament will likely be postponed too

 

[Cutie Gwen]

View attachment 273827

I saw this yesterday & its 99.99% probably just a coincidence, but there seems to be a pattern going on.

First Column: Nintendo character that isn’t super hype, but not hated either (Once Plant came out that is)

Second Column: Internet breaking/“THEY’RE IN?!” Character

Third Column: Series that started on the NES

Fourth Column: Rare character

Fifth Column: This just seems like a free space so far lmao

Sixth Column: Nintendo shill pick

Like I said, it’s probably just a coincidence but it’s fun to see how it’s lined up like that so far.

The fifth column is what ultimately makes me think it’s a coincidence though; I can’t really see anything similar between Isabelle & Terry besides them being cool characters that didn’t make the fanbase explode one way or another.

Love how the character Sakurai confirmed was a major request gets written off as 'generally accepted' and how easily one of Japan's biggest requests is just 'E3'



Also it's cute how I've been mentioned like 5 times when people talk about The Gaming Icon of Sin, y'all love me

 

[SpectreJordan]

Love how the character Sakurai confirmed was a major request gets written off as 'generally accepted' and how easily one of Japan's biggest requests is just 'E3'



Also it's cute how I've been mentioned like 5 times when people talk about The Gaming Icon of Sin, y'all love me

Which characters are you talking about?

 

[SMAASH! Puppy]

I still think it's suspicious there wasn't a PMD spirit event. I think we're getting a PMD rep, be it Grovyle, Gengar, Gardevoir, or whoever.

Nintendo: The next character will be from Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX!
Speculation community: *sweats in trying to sift through 16 different protagonists, Alakazam, Gengar, Absol, Ninetales, and Groudon*

Which characters are you talking about?

Joker, Hero, and Rex & Pyra/Mythra.

 

[EricTheGamerman]

If Smash speculation was as simple of a science as some think it is, we probably would've predicted most of the DLC by now.

Will Rex get in Smash? Maybe, maybe not. Regardless, I'm not writing him off just because he doesn't match what we've gotten so far. A lot of people wrote ARMS off for this exact reason, and despite the weird announcement in March, it managed to contradict a lot of the rules and guidelines people were using to predict who would be F6.

What you're describing is literally the work of any science though. You develop theories from the evidence at hand and attempt to practically test those theories with the knowledge that you may be wrong and a willingness to accept that. You also traditionally have confidence in your theories based on the evidence and the conclusions you've arrived at. If you're wrong, you're wrong and move on and redevelop theories and ideas around why the initial one was incorrect. Obviously Smash Speculation doesn't inherently give you any control over testing of the theories and you're only working from a limited set of information that has to be pieced together from interviews, character releases, etc. But I mean, that's just kind of what you do in the act of speculation.

Sure it's not an exact science, but it's also not this mystical ideology that some Smash circles seem to claim it is either and there's a fair amount of predictions that can be made based upon evidence such as precedence and looking at how it benefits Nintendo. Because at the core of every single Smash character is the ideology that it advances Nintendo's goals in some way. Sure, that's a fundamentally broad category, but then you can distill it down further into additional ideas about how the roster is chosen and for what purposes, and what may fit and what may not.

 

[Scoliosis Jones]

SoV came out in 2017. Ultimate project plan was finalized (with the exception of Incineroar) at the end of 2015. So the latest title was Fates (in Japan).

Thank you for the correction! While it wasn't SoV, it still suits the argument then that Chrom still was not the latest protagonist.

Chrom will never be a good example because quite literally the only reason he's playable is just because they could make him a glorified alt costume of Roy, just without the hilt sweetspot and with Ike's up B.

All in all, it's just a consolation prize for him missing his one brief window of opportunity back in Smash 4, same thing with Dark Samus. So unless you're saying Rex could end up as an echo of Shulk....

Not in the slightest. I did make a point to point out Chrom is an echo, so clearly he has unique aspects leading to his conclusion.

My point was that Chrom was added despite the fact that he wasn't the "latest protagonist". There was fan demand and the obvious circumstances that made his inclusion feel natural, and the odds of Rex being an Echo fighter are nil. But the comparison being made was more about being an "outdated" protagonist.

You are correct though. While that might compare, the situation aside from that is different.