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Official Newcomer/DLC Speculation Discussion

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ZelDan

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yeah there were plenty of people that were thinking Three Houses could get a character.

Most just didn't expect to actually get it during the first fighter's pass.
 

SpectreJordan

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Does anyone know what the popular picks in Japan are rn? I haven’t really seen anything about that in a while. It’d be interesting to see.
 

Digital Hazard

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To be fair, there was a subset of people that found 3 Houses' lack of spirit event to be really suspect, myself included.


Just, there were two main points against it.


1# "It could get one later/X game hasn't had one yet so it means nothing"


and the loudest was of course


2# "Do you REALLY think Nintendo would end on a 1st party when the rest of the pass was 3rd?"


To be blunt, I was cackling like a madman when Byleth was revealed because I felt super vindicated.
yeah there were plenty of people that were thinking Three Houses could get a character.

Most just didn't expect to actually get it during the first fighter's pass.
I think the situation is summed up better by TV Tropes here:
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/UnexpectedCharacter/SuperSmashBros

"Byleth is another "interesting case" character. While a Fire Emblem: Three Houses character was most certainly expected at some point, most just didn't expect Byleth to show up in the first Fighters Pass, assuming he/she would instead show up in the next one. This is mainly due to several things, such as Sakurai stating that he wanted to give new game worlds a chance in the spotlight, as well as several shocking new third-party characters making the roster despite Nintendo themselves picking out the characters, and Rex and Spring Man being Demoted to Extra because of their recency. (Though it should be noted, respectively, that Sakurai never stated that he meant all-new video game franchises, that Nintendo still picks who can be DLC while Sakurai determines if they can be made into a fighter, and Rex and Spring Man were only late for the base game whereas Byleth was barely able to make the first round of DLC.) What makes it an unexpected character is that, as Sakurai points out, his staff worked on it as secretly as possible to the point where even the staff at Nintendo didn't know about it. It was a surprise within the company as well."
 

Garteam

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Admittedly, Dante is a pretty strange choice if you wanted someone specifically from the Vs. series. He's only been in two (three if you count MvC3 and UMvC3 separately) Vs. games. Admittedly, he's pretty popular in those games, but he's nonexistant for most of the series' history.

IMO, if you wanted a dedicated Vs. rep, Akuma seems to be your man. He's a playable character in all entries but Marvel Super Heroes, MvC1 (where Ryu can take on his moveset, so he's still technically playable), MvCI. His inclusion in X-Men: COTA as a secret character is essentially the primary reason we eventually saw Marvel and Capcom characters crossover in X-Men vs. Street Fighter and later MvC.

Alternatively, if you really wanted someone who screams "MAHVEL NOW", Wolverine is another option. He's been in every Capcom-made Marvel fighter except MvCI and he's usually the face of Marvel's half of the roster (with X-Men vs. Street Fighter and MvCI being the exception). However, there's the obvious caveat that he's not a game character, so he's got a snowball's chance in hell in getting in Smash.
 
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Scoliosis Jones

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Yeah, there were plenty of folks who were keeping an eye out for Three Houses considering the Spirit event never happened. There were...quite a few really.

As I’ve said, while I assumed we’d get another 3rd party, I did more or less say at one point or another that Three Houses was absolutely a contender for a spot if a first party game was coming.

Kinda weird, but it seems like some folks care more about people “being wrong” about characters getting into the wacky wahoo fighting game than actually playing the wacky wahoo fighting game. Don’t be like that, lads.

Lastly, I will totally, 100%, positively, absolutely, accept and love the addition of Rex from XC2 should he get in through Fighter Pass 2. Would totally love it.
 
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EricTheGamerman

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It still surprises me how much people took Sakurai's comments on Rex to mean that Ultimate couldn't get a newer character. Sakurai was just referring to base game at that point because that's when that content for Spring Man and Rex were showing up on launch day. The DLC was already well under way by then, and they had just not chosen to prioritize an ARMS rep or a Xenoblade rep at that point in time. They could have very easily chosen either for Fighter's Pass Volume 1 just as Byleth did eventually end up #5 in the pass, but that just wasn't their focus.

I'll admit I was someone who didn't put much stock in the idea of an 8th Fire Emblem fighter just because I figured the backlash to Corrin and the pretty solid treatment the series seemed to get in base game Ultimate would lead to us not seeing any more Fire Emblem content. I entertained the possibility somewhat because it was suspicious that we weren't getting any Three Houses Spirits and Fire Emblem Heroes had been nothing but a huge success for Nintendo since Fates' release, but I figured Nintendo and Sakurai would be happy with the 7 and Chrom being added. In retrospect, Nintendo's continued investment in Fire Emblem should have been a bigger red flag to me. Fire Emblem Warriors and Heroes showed just how much Nintendo wanted to build up the brand and since Awakening the series has done very well despite its more inherently niche gameplay and sales pitch. It was one of the more legitimate Nintendo franchise success stories that had been 6 years in the making when Byleth was presumably chosen in 2018.

I think ARMS and XC2 just kind of got put in a situation where Nintendo was looking to watch and evaluate them as franchises. ARMS was a brand new IP when Sakurai developed Spring Man, and after ARMS sort of didn't go many places as a title beyond or really take off as a brand the same way Splatoon did (which it never was going to, but it didn't see any massive enduring success), I think there's a good chance Nintendo wanted to hold off on developing the brand further for the time being. XC2 is a little bit weirder, but I think it comes down to the fact Shulk was seemingly pretty lucky to get into Smash 4 based on Sakurai's own words, and Shulk could also advertise the Xenoblade brand by already being in the game.

Now we've seen what happened with ARMS as Nintendo clearly re-evaluated and decided to invest once again (which does seem rather contrary to how they've handled ARMS entirely over the past couple years post end of support), so we'll have to see what XC2's situation looks like. Shulk ironically does a damn fine job advertising when his critically acclaimed remake and Definitive Edition just released and Xenoblade is already in Smash. That doesn't exclude it from getting more content, but I can see a reality in which ARMS gets chosen for the upgrade and XC2 doesn't. At the same time, it would be odd given the general push for Xenoblade and continued success of the series to not see another expansion in Smash before all is said and done. Rex & Pyra/Mythra felt like a natural set of characters to come back to post Fighter's Pass 1, but I do wonder with how differently Xenoblade seems to have been handled already (XC2 songs and Spirits in base game and a Rex Mii Fighter as a FP1 Fighter Bonus still strikes me as a more definitive way to shut him down than most) if that'll be the case.
 

Cutie Gwen

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Admittedly, Dante is a pretty strange choice if you wanted someone specifically from the Vs. series. He's only been in two (three if you count MvC3 and UMvC3 separately) Vs. games. Admittedly, he's pretty popular in those games, but he's nonexistant for most of the series' history.

IMO, if you wanted a dedicated Vs. rep, Akuma seems to be your man. He's a playable character in all entries but Marvel Super Heroes, MvC1 (where Ryu can take on his moveset, so he's still technically playable), MvCI. His inclusion in X-Men: COTA as a secret character is essentially the primary reason we eventually saw Marvel and Capcom characters crossover in X-Men vs. Street Fighter and later MvC.

Alternatively, if you really wanted someone who screams "MAHVEL NOW", Wolverine is another option. He's been in every Capcom-made Marvel fighter except MvCI and he's usually the face of Marvel's half of the roster (with X-Men vs. Street Fighter and MvCI being the exception). However, there's the obvious caveat that he's not a game character, so he's got a snowball's chance in hell in getting in Smash.
This is a very strange way to say the OC made for the VS games that's been in every single game, Morrigan Aensland. Still waiting on Darkstalkers not being dead Ono



Also if Rex gets in I'll simply pretend he doesn't actually exist and that V2's just 5 bucks more for some reason
 

Cosmic77

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yeah there were plenty of people that were thinking Three Houses could get a character.

Most just didn't expect to actually get it during the first fighter's pass.
People weren't expecting any first-party character to get in the first pass, which is why Byleth was a breath of fresh air in that regard.

Seems like both Sakurai and Nintendo agree that a good DLC pass relies heavily on variety. First and third-party, new and old characters, regional preferences: these are the things they're looking at. That's why I don't understand why people always want to look for special themes or patterns for these passes. If anything, Sakurai would make it his goal to stay away from a potential theme.
 

Guybrush20X6

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I believe that Byleth was always planned but I also believe that the pass had a designated 1st party slot because the when the whole pass is bought it's at a one pack discount. They needed one without royalties to make economic sense.
 

Swamp Sensei

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I believe that Byleth was always planned but I also believe that the pass had a designated 1st party slot because the when the whole pass is bought it's at a one pack discount. They needed one without royalties to make economic sense.
That's actually a very good point.

Hmm....
 

The_Naraotor

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I'm still not sure as to why a league of legends potential Dante as a guest means that Dante is in Super Smash Bros Ultimate too ? Can someone enlight me ?

Also does the ARMS picture leaked as been debunked or not ?
 

Wyoming

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I'm still not sure as to why a league of legends potential Dante as a guest means that Dante is in Super Smash Bros Ultimate too ? Can someone enlight me ?

Also does the ARMS picture leaked as been debunked or not ?
It's the smash speculation scene in a nutshell.

Everything. Relates. To. Smash.
 

Dinoman96

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I think with Byleth, they just wanted to have a character from a game released after Ultimate. I believe that's why Corrin was added in Smash 4 too.

Both ARMS and Xenoblade 2 were already on the market by the time they were planning Ultimate's first (and at the time, only) batch of DLC in 2018, so naturally they set their sights on Three Houses, which wouldn't release until after the base game in 2019.
 
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ROBnWatch

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Byleth was simply an easy/obvious choice for a first party DLC character. Three Houses had seen massive success and Byleth could not only represent the 3 paths with the 3 weapon choices, but also possibly promote the DLC for Three Houses. The cost of all this, of course, was another FE rep and the backlash that ensued.

I was initially disappointed as well. In my opinion, FE has a bloated roster. But, in the same respect, I was at least happy to see a first party character whom I recognized (most of my wanted characters are first party). Follow that up with the ARMS rep and I feel like FP2 will be more diverse/balanced in terms of first vs third party representation. So at least that came out of it.

Finally, Rex and Pyra/Mythra absolutely still have a chance. FP1 was decided soon after the base game if not before the base game’s launch, which automatically disqualified them. Since FP2 had begun its planning stages, I’m sure they’ve discussed the inclusion of Rex and Pyra/Mythra again. Whether or not they were chosen remains to be seen.
 

Dinoman96

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Byleth was simply an easy/obvious choice for a first party DLC character. Three Houses had seen massive success and Byleth could not only represent the 3 paths with the 3 weapon choices, but also possibly promote the DLC for Three Houses.
To be honest, I don't think Three Houses being a massive success really had much to do with it considering that Byleth was planned to be in long before 3H even saw release.

But obviously a new character from a long running and proven franchise was a safer bet for DLC than say, a totally new and unproven IP, like Ring Fit Adventure or Astral Chain. Of course both of those games turned out successful, especially RFA, but it would of been awkward to have them be DLC had their debut games outright bombed, Wonderful 101 style.
 
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Vintage Creep

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Is there any rumor regarding a possible Direct coming soon? I expect one next week with the character and new Nintendo stuff
 

The_Naraotor

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Is there any rumor regarding a possible Direct coming soon? I expect one next week with the character and new Nintendo stuff
I heard nothing, Nintendo is kind of like very silent in their promotionnal stuff lately. Thet bomb drop their stuff out of nowhere reccently.

To be honest, I don't think Three Houses being a massive success really had much to do with it considering that Byleth was planned to be in long before 3H even saw release.

But obviously a new character from a long running and proven franchise was a safer bet for DLC than say, a totally new and unproven IP, like Ring Fit Adventure or Astral Chain. Of course both of those games turned out successful, especially RFA, but it would of been awkward to have them be DLC had their debut games outright bombed, Wonderful 101 style.
To be fair for Astral Chain like I'd say previously on this topic, Akira Howard would make for an awesome character. His/her moveset would be bonkers. And on the department of dual character we would have a Badass one compared to Duck Hunt Duo, Banjo-Kazooie and the Ice Climbers.

My wish is to have in Super Smash Bros Ultimate these characters

Deathborn
Sylux
Impa
Akira Howard
Doomguy/Slayer
Lara Croft
Rayman

And I think that's it tho I think I need to think of one more character I'd want especially a female character for having more variety.
 

EricTheGamerman

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Is there any rumor regarding a possible Direct coming soon? I expect one next week with the character and new Nintendo stuff
There's no indication that Nintendo intends to host any proper Directs for the foreseeable future. They've come to rely entirely on Twitter announcements in a post COVID-19 lock-down world and tons of reliable insiders have echoed the sentiment that we should not expect formal Directs for some time, and maybe even shouldn't really expect that many brand new game announcements in the first place. Couple that with the ongoing protests in the US that Nintendo is also showing solidarity with and responding to with active measures of support, and there's a good chance we may get ultimately very little news out of June period. E3 originally being next week basically has no bearing on the current situation given how much is changed and what the timing of everything means.

The ARMS fighter will likely still be revealed and released by the end of June given's Nintendo decision to commit to that in March of this year, but there's always a chance they could be pushed back due to current events as well. And I honestly don't really expect much announcement wise from Nintendo until they're absolutely certain that the titles are ready for public unveiling and that they aren't unveiling anything in an insensitive manner due to the wider protests emerging not only in the US, but globally.
 

SKX31

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I'm still not sure as to why a league of legends potential Dante as a guest means that Dante is in Super Smash Bros Ultimate too ? Can someone enlight me ?

Also does the ARMS picture leaked as been debunked or not ?
Wouldn't mean much neccessarily. Amaterasu's in Dota 2 as a courier (ferries items bought from shops to the player character - starts off grounded, can be upgraded to flying). And several SNK characters - including Iori - are skins in (the aptly named) Mobile Legends. Neither of these examples have anything to do with Smash.

It could be an interesting development still, even if it has nothing to do with Smash. Might be tied to LoL's plans to go console / mobile.

To be honest, I don't think Three Houses being a massive success really had much to do with it considering that Byleth was planned to be in long before 3H even saw release.

But obviously a new character from a long running and proven franchise was a safer bet for DLC than say, a totally new and unproven IP, like Ring Fit Adventure or Astral Chain. Of course both of those games turned out successful, especially RFA, but it would of been awkward to have them be DLC had their debut games outright bombed, Wonderful 101 style.
In this case it's worth pointing out that ARMS sold in the neighborhood of 2 million - but didn't have the long shelf life. Nintendo might've looked at this and concluded that "ARMS has potential, it just needs more solid support and interest a la Splatoon. A Smash character can help with that".
 
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EricTheGamerman

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To be honest, I don't think Three Houses being a massive success really had much to do with it considering that Byleth was planned to be in long before 3H even saw release.

But obviously a new character from a long running and proven franchise was a safer bet for DLC than say, a totally new and unproven IP, like Ring Fit Adventure or Astral Chain. Of course both of those games turned out successful, especially RFA, but it would of been awkward to have them be DLC had their debut games outright bombed, Wonderful 101 style.
Those two are the only reasons I desperately hope Nintendo decides to do either additional fighters or a Volume 3. Astral Chain missing the boat seems like such a shame when it's clearly become a successful title that Nintendo and Platinum will build on, and Ring Fit honestly seems like its easily one of the Switch's generation defining new IPs that manages to successfully achieve a proper exercise peripheral base concept with a solid game underneath that Nintendo has seemingly been working towards for years.
 

Phoenixio

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but it would of been awkward to have them be DLC had their debut games outright bombed, Wonderful 101 style.
But isn't the main failure of Wonderful 101 mostly related to the fact that the WiiU flopped as well? You can't make games as successfully if fewer people have the console to play it. I'm curious to see how the remake does now that it'll be within the grasp of ~50 million people, instead of just ~13 million for the WiiU.
 

Guybrush20X6

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Unless the changing clocks have thrown me off, it'll be 9am in Japan in 6 hours. I don't expect anything to be announced on a Friday but it's worth checking in for.
 

EricTheGamerman

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But isn't the main failure of Wonderful 101 mostly related to the fact that the WiiU flopped as well? You can't make games as successfully if fewer people have the console to play it. I'm curious to see how the remake does now that it'll be within the grasp of ~50 million people, instead of just ~13 million for the WiiU.
The Wonderful 101 released in 2013 when Nintendo was still trying to push the Wii U and did atrociously even by the Wii U standards. Platinum Games joked about how poorly it did, and even for the sometimes niche Platinum Games releases that tend to struggle to turn profits of any sizable caliber, the game was still more niche and divisive than most of those other efforts and probably led to one of Platinum's biggest bombs of their career. Sure, they released a lot of junk to pay the bills such as The Legend of Korra and that TMNT game, plus the rushed Star Fox game, but this was a pet project they got to fully commit to that just didn't even make a dent.
 

Dinoman96

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There's other examples like Codename S.T.E.A.M. Imagine if Sakurai had caught wind of that game's development back in 2012 and included Henry Flaming in Smash 4...only for CS to come out and completely bomb and have no future ahead of it. It'd be beyond awkward.

At least something like F-Zero was still a prosperous franchise back when Smash 64 was in development.
 

Phoenixio

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This discussion about successes led me to check the list of Switch best-selling games. It contains only titles with more than 1 million sold units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_Nintendo_Switch_video_games

It's not too surprising that most of the games on that list are first parties strongly associated with Mario, but the second half of the list gets quite interesting. There are titles like Ring Fit Adventure, Octopath Traveler, Arms, Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle, that all did extremely well, but have yet to be represented in Smash. Xenoblade Chronicles 2 is up there too, but a full million underneath Fire Emblem Three Houses.

And then Astral Chain above the million, but it had limited amounts of copies on the shelves, due to the surprise success of the game? Platinum stated they were quite impressed that the sales went way above their estimates, so I wonder how that affects physical copy production.

Notice also that the only indie game that made it in the list is Enter the Gungeon. It's also surprising, considering how long it has been available on PC beforehand. It's a great game though, I highly suggest it.
 

Staarih

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Unless the changing clocks have thrown me off, it'll be 9am in Japan in 6 hours. I don't expect anything to be announced on a Friday but it's worth checking in for.
Isn’t it something like 10pm in Japan now? And even then, in the morning it’ll be Saturday over there, we never get announcements during the weekend. Next week is a new chance.

And yeah, weren’t there mumblings about a Nintendo Direct not happening in June? All I’m expecting are random announcement here and there.
 

zumaddy

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What was the Arms image leak? I'm out of the loop.

Also IIRC a lot of pretty reputable insiders like Jeff Grubb and NateDrake have said not to expect an E3-eqsue direct this month.
BTW It's 10pm in Japan, as it's 11pm in Australia and we're an hour ahead.
 
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Rie Sonomura

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What was the Arms image leak? I'm out of the loop.

Also IIRC a lot of pretty reputable insiders like Jeff Grubb and NateDrake have said not to expect an E3-eqsue direct this month.
BTW It's 10pm in Japan, as it's 11pm in Australia and we're an hour ahead.
There was an ARMS image leak??
 

SKX31

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The Wonderful 101 released in 2013 when Nintendo was still trying to push the Wii U and did atrociously even by the Wii U standards. Platinum Games joked about how poorly it did, and even for the sometimes niche Platinum Games releases that tend to struggle to turn profits of any sizable caliber, the game was still more niche and divisive than most of those other efforts and probably led to one of Platinum's biggest bombs of their career. Sure, they released a lot of junk to pay the bills such as The Legend of Korra and that TMNT game, plus the rushed Star Fox game, but this was a pet project they got to fully commit to that just didn't even make a dent.
Still though, Platinum did self-publish the remaster on the Switch, PS4 and Steam. There's at least some internal interest in the game - even if it bombed originally. Sure, the KickStarter was used partly to judge how much interest there was externally in the game. But the important part's that Platinum were willing to develop and publish a port / remaster of a game that didn't do well originally.

(The plans to remaster Wonderful 101 and self-publish it predate the investment Platinum got from Tencent.)
 

TheCJBrine

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I believe that Byleth was always planned but I also believe that the pass had a designated 1st party slot because the when the whole pass is bought it's at a one pack discount. They needed one without royalties to make economic sense.
The discount is actually 1 or 2 bucks off buying each separately, so you’d still be partly paying for pack 5, but that still makes sense I guess.
 

Speed Weed

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so i'm cobbling together a potential pass 2, and i wanted y'all's help with something:

what other first-parties, including assists and spirits, do you people think could happen, whether it's because of promotion, fan demand, or sinply presence in current nintendo
 

Perkilator

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so i'm cobbling together a potential pass 2, and i wanted y'all's help with something:

what other first-parties, including assists and spirits, do you people think could happen, whether it's because of promotion, fan demand, or sinply presence in current nintendo
-Euden
-Gen 8 Rep (that's NOT from the Expansion Pass)
-Captain Toad
-Mike Jones

Yeah, that's it.
 

Rie Sonomura

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so i'm cobbling together a potential pass 2, and i wanted y'all's help with something:

what other first-parties, including assists and spirits, do you people think could happen, whether it's because of promotion, fan demand, or sinply presence in current nintendo
Elma and Octoling, the latter being a presence in current Nintendo and the former being a tie in promotion (Xeno X DE? Xeno X 2?)

cant think of any non-Spirits for that, you already got Byleth and literally every other first party choice I can think of is a Spirit
 

SpectreJordan

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I saw this yesterday & its 99.99% probably just a coincidence, but there seems to be a pattern going on.

First Column: Nintendo character that isn’t super hype, but not hated either (Once Plant came out that is)

Second Column: Internet breaking/“THEY’RE IN?!” Character

Third Column: Series that started on the NES

Fourth Column: Rare character

Fifth Column: This just seems like a free space so far lmao

Sixth Column: Nintendo shill pick

Like I said, it’s probably just a coincidence but it’s fun to see how it’s lined up like that so far.

The fifth column is what ultimately makes me think it’s a coincidence though; I can’t really see anything similar between Isabelle & Terry besides them being cool characters that didn’t make the fanbase explode one way or another.
 

Kotor

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but I do wonder with how differently Xenoblade seems to have been handled already (XC2 songs and Spirits in base game and a Rex Mii Fighter as a FP1 Fighter Bonus still strikes me as a more definitive way to shut him down than most) if that'll be the case.
They could always just add onto it.

ARMS is going to be getting more spirits despite there being 5 already in the base game (and maybe some ARMS themed mii costumes too. I think half of the FP Vol 1 picks came with a mii costume from their game, or series, so ARMS getting like Biff as a head costume isn't that farfetched)

We don't have spirits of Dormarch, Brigid, and Pandoria like with do with Pyra & Mythra, and Poppi (who's just her alpha form). Not to mention Malos, Jin, Amalthus, an Ardainian Soldier, and the prequel characters from Torna the Golden Country as potential spirits. And I really doubt 3 songs from a game with 105 going by the official soundtrack is gonna make Sakurai shut down the idea of Rex joining Smash if Nintendo suggested him.
 

osby

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so i'm cobbling together a potential pass 2, and i wanted y'all's help with something:

what other first-parties, including assists and spirits, do you people think could happen, whether it's because of promotion, fan demand, or sinply presence in current nintendo
I'd keep an eye on Rex. Like it or not, after getting a Three Houses and ARMS character as DLC, a Xenoblade Chronicles 2 character seems more than a little likely to me. While I wouldn't call him super likely, I don't see why people act like it became completely irrelevant considering it's released after ARMS.

I would like Astral Chain and Ring Fit Adventure to get playable characters but I don't think they're happening.
 
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