Alright, so here's the analysis. I've had niggling suspicions for a while (since Frozen's wagon late D1, actually), but it didn't seem solid enough and I held my tongue, deciding to go after other targets. However, I feel I've pinpointed the mastermind behind the scum team, who's been seen as obv-town and a key factor on multiple bandwagons that only just missed being a lynch.
Here's one of the major things that sets off alarm bells with me.
*snip*
Why did you try to get people to blindly follow Adumb's scum read D1?
The same reason I used AB as bait on D1 to get reads. You don't leave strong players in the shadows. You don't even leave mediocre players in the shadows. You don't take unnecessary risks on D1 and you take the best path possible.
I use AB as bait, wagon forms
AB gets out of wagon
Use AB as a mule to get a wagon started somewhere else; this is win/win. AB wanted to go after FF (one of the people I wanted to know more about), and a lynch would have given me his flip with votes. If FF flips scum, happy day. If FF flips town, who do you think is going to have happily tacked on to the last minute wagon? It was lead by a mod-confirmed townie and encouraged by Town's #1 town read (that's me!) for all of Day 1 repeatedly. You don't think scum would try to jump on that wagon?
OS here basically says that his game plan with both the AB AND the Frozenflame wagons was to go after town's strongest players with arguments of dubious strength and look at who was on the wagon. At this point, Frozenflame and AB are almost certainly town, so thus far he's lead two wagons, one of which was definitely garbage, which we KNOW scum was on.
OS, Red Ryu, Circus, Inferno, and Raziek.
Oh wait, they would.
Plus, if FF dies I wouldn't have to worry about looking into him the next day and could focus on Circus. Fortunately for me, Circus is dead scum and FF is cleared town. Unfortunately for me, the few I had been paying close attention to are all cleared or dead. I wanted to look at FF, and all I can see is a townie. I was planning on looking at Circus, but a last minute lynch took care of that for me.
So, he's noted that FF is definitely townie, Circus the scum was on Frozenflame's wagon, it would be logical to look at other people on that really bad wagon, right? Apparently not!
People I'd like to look into:
2. JTB
11. Raziek
12. Boatchouli (Ryker/Moth)
Person I'm most interested in:
9. Xatres
Of these four, only Raziek was on that wagon, as the L-2 vote less than a day before deadline (when Frozen was looking like he'd be lynched.), and to counteract it he (as well as Xatres) were on the Frozen wagon.
There is no reason to be going after EITHER of them. Boat and JTB are run of the mill in actives, good for either easy bussing credit or guilt free mislynches (depending on their respective alignments.)
We aren't done yet, that was only ONE post.
Who said I thought AB was town? I just didn't plan on enforcing the lynch all the way through; if I did I would have supported it. Didn't mind other people going through with it though. If I make a solid case on someone and then they get lynched, we learn whether they were town or scum. If I make a hollow case that looks good but doesn't have much substance, we get eager supporters piling on that we can sift through later.
Was the case on AB good or faulty? Pick one and stick to it.
And again, I didn't care whether or not AB got lynched. His play was pretty bad and highly suspect, and more than enough to warrant a lynch. It was incredibly easy to manufacture a wagon, yes, but that doesn't mean his alignment was town. SOMEONE was going to get lynched on D1, and how I presented it gave me information. That's not a "BS wagon". That's a wagon made in such a way that you get more information than a simple flip.
This kind of rhetoric is what makes me wary of OS. It looks impressive, but think about it, any solid wagon gets you more info than a simple flip, based on who defended/attacked the deceased.
Makes town unable to read me? I can make town read me however I want. You know this, everyone knows this. I started the game and had all of town saying "OS is obv town". Even Nich, who starts the game off saying "I've got an eye on you OS, I won't let you get me again" and this huge vendetta from Fire Emblem is saying "Doc protect OS". It takes Frozen Flame and myself telling you guys how high you are for trusting someone for being town just because they haven't done something scummy.
The cost of having an excellent scum game is that I give you a LOT more attention, OS. I've been agonizing over your alignment for much of D2, I just haven't posted about it yet. </random comment>
How about looking at it from the other direction.
What has OS given us?
I gave you the AB wagon
I made the FF wagon legitimate
Both of which brought about Circus' death
No. Just no. Yes, it was being on the FF wagon which let me catch Circus, but you can't claim responsibility for that wagon. By the same logic Joseph's brothers saved Egypt by tossing him down a well and selling him into slavery. (For those who are unfamiliar with the Bible story, Joseph eventually became 2nd in command over Egypt and saved it in a time of famine.) You yourself have said that you didn't see the Circus wagon coming.
I've made multiple players in this game post their reads repeatedly, leaving a plain and obvious paper trail
This is null, as scum can also benefit by knowing where people are at (particularly manipulation-heavy players like OS), and get good town points for doing so. (In a related way, J pushed a lot of players for reads and to become active in FFIX mafia.) I'm not saying it's a scum-tell, but I'm not buying it as a town tell.
I'm not hiding and you couldn't get a wagon on me even if you tried.
Xatres, maybe not. Me? It'll be a struggle. But I can at least bring a spotlight, and with a little help I can bring far more.
Anyway, speaking of Xatres, let's move on to OS's case on the person he's most interested in lynching.
Wait a second...
There isn't one. Overswarm has not made a case on Xatres at all. He's been pushing for his claim for no less than FIVE days, according to the above post he really wants Xatres lynched, but there's no actual PUSH to lynch. This is about as close as he gets as to why we should suspect Xatres at all.
[Xatres] Playing careful implies self preservation so... how is that not a viable reason for suspicion?
This sounds good on the surface, and with most people I wouldn't give it a second thought, but OS knows better. Xatres has already claimed at least SOME PR knowledge, isn't it natural he'd want to stay alive if he has a PR? In fact, just this game, Frozenflame's used that kind of "careful" play to his role's advantage. OS has also seen me inactive and "careful" as PR Fire Emblem D1.
In fact, just about all OS has been doing has been pushing for claims much of D2. I mean,
We have two good wagons to analyze from D1, the scummy wagon on Frozen, and the wagon on Circus scum.
Only one person has died and that person was mafia.
OS goes around pushing Tery, Xatres, Boat, and Raziek towards claiming, and never does significant analysis on either wagon? (Aside from a bit to try to convince us Raziek could be scum).
Please tell me why we have half the players claimed in the game at the moment. I mean, what did we learn from the claims of Boat, Raziek, and what more do you think we'll learn from Xatres? Nothing from Boat or Raziek. (Even if they hadn't claimed VT, would that have affected where we'd likely point wagons at?)
If Xatres is town then we can assume he has no more info to volunteer right now, as else the partial claim was a bad idea.
If Xatres is scum then any info we'd wring out of him by claiming is likely false anyway.
Either way, these claims don't help town at all. On the other hand, taking Xatres's claim of a scum role cop at face value, scum definitely benefits since it narrows down who might have a PR.
So, to summarize the points against OS.
1) He's pushed multiple wagons that by his own admission aren't any good on two of the strongest players in this game, both of which are very likely town. The Frozenflame wagon in particular was horrible.
2) He's been after a bunch of claims today with no apparent reasoning, just going "Oh, he might be lynched? Claim." Town hasn't benefitted from these claims at all, while mafia at the least narrows down the PR's (Tery's basically a VT if we don't lynch the slot, no other claims have been noteworthy yet.)
3) We have at least two good wagons from D1 that we can analyze to find scum. Instead, OS (who's been viewed as the number 1 townie for much of this game), is going after a couple in actives, and two people who were on the Circus-scum wagon. He hasn't even pushed any lynches, given the current state of things it's quite possible it would run down to deadline, where mafia can use their consolidated voting and influence to swing lynches a lot more easily. (Tying this in with point 1, he claims that the point behind the AB/Frozen wagon was that if it was a bad case on a townie, we could analyze the bandwagon for scum. Well, AB/Frozen are town, why hasn't he done said analysis?)
4) He's been saying things here and there that cast him in a townie light (or one of his targets in a scummy light) that just don't line up with reality, and deflecting anything he doesn't want to answer. For example, he's taken credit for the Circus wagon despite playing a minor (at best) role on the lynch, and when I pointed out that Xatres-scum going after OS would be suicide, he just brushes me off with no answer of why any scum would do that.
Unvote, Vote: Overswarm
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