Last time I played infern I didn't play Marf and he did in fact beat me. Maybe on the stage he has other options that local Marfs don't use and he'll give me more of a hard time. However, I have a real hard time seeing him able to do anything at all to avoid the countered up-b. It doesn't matter how well he spaces it. Either he doesn't up-b and falls to his death (in which case you should have plenty of time to DS to the ledge after the counter ends) or he does up-b and gets countered and you DS to the ledge, then if he's not to far away to try again you drop and repeat.
It's possible to whiff the counter, Ike's hitbox is pretty large and has good priority so you have to have consistent timing. I've FINALLY learned to do a quickhog with Marth so it's much easier than trying to Counter. Once you GET the counter off it's not an issue for me at ALL since Ike's recovery sucks but the problem is ACTUALLY getting it because Aether comes out pretty fast and reaches out slightly farther than the sword to the ledge.
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Wait until you play in tourney...I used to score tippers left and right too XD; In tourney it's more difficult, it seems.
Well don't miss, silly. Marth can juggle like mad with his upair if people don't airdodge - and if they do they're vulnerable right afterward. It's so great. My favorite place to use the dsmash ATM is to punish an airdodge that ends right above the ground. Punishing sidesteps is also a great place to use it. In either situation it's a guaranteed hit if you time it properly, and if they have enough damage and it's fresh it's a guaranteed KO.
UAir is great, I agree...I like FSmash for my airdodge endings though but that may be because I like the move in general since 9000 other Marths use it + the first time I saw juggle trap and actually recognized that it was a juggle trap I saw it ended w/ tipper FSmash. DSmash would be pretty good though, but since it lags for 58 frames on the front end of the smash and 43 off the second hit with 4 frame difference from FSmash the tradeoff for me is obvious. I should probably be going 50% FSmash/50% DSmash.
Of COURSE anything is a guaranteed KO at high enough damage >___>; but how often are you going to juggle trap the opponent in a situation where they're at killing %s? For me that's rather difficult since they bounce really high above BF platforms and I don't really like to juggle too far above the ground, though I could use the platforms to my advantage more for the juggle...
From what I can tell the safest approach is an empty SH, spaced properly to allow you to tipper fair. If your opponent just stands there you fair, if he does anything else you can punish. Your approach should basically be a punishment for your opponent's response. This often means a lot of DB. Yes, if you hit a shield you're in trouble - so don't hit a shield with the DB. If he shields either stay in tipper fair range or grab or wait for the shield to end (drop shield, jump out of shield, sidestep, roll) and punish with DB.
OPPONENT:
Stands there - they're ***** for free. Marth is good at beating this which is why ppl MOVE against Marth.
Uses an attack -> hopefully it's a 1- or 2- frame jab, because otherwise they're gone
Tornadoes -> Dammit. DI inwards a bit then UpB
Spotdodges - can be beaten if they're NOT DDD in most situations.
Run away - if they have pretty good running speeds this works quite well.
Does a standing aerial - depends on whether they outrange you or trade or get owned.
Does a cross up aerial - you've committed to a standing aerial range, this is clearly the best option seeing as how they can beat out your aerial potentially but more importantly get away from the tipper range
Sits in shield - not a bad option...but Marth can DTilt frame trap the shield, grab, DB or just walk away a bit -> FSmash and other things
Jumps twice - Juggle trap
Rolls Away - you should be fast enough to DB
Rolls Towards - Marth can't beat this if the opponent has a good roll since they can buffer the shield...but in most cases DB works
Dash Attack - works if you have a good DA
So right here we have good options like running away, dash attack, shielding to cover any options and using Brawl's 0-shieldstun policy and jumping OOS while running like a pro. Crossup works well too. Spacing just OUTSIDE tipper fair in my experience covers the running away option like a charm because you have more room to react to any sort of dumb stuff they might pull, though spacing at tipper range allows you to reset the position faster. The cross up option also then becomes more annoying to space for them seeing as they have less margin for error.
When I'm playing someone who is playing conservatively, I end up using MORE DB then any other move. By playing conservatively they keep themselves from being within range (with time to be hit by) a KOing move, and honestly the DB seems to be the most used non-KOing move. Unless by "conservatively" you mean they plank the edge or something, which is a whole different ordeal.
Even IF you can't get a DB for a refresh, if you can land almost any of his other moves properly one of them is fresh for a KO anyways. Lately I've been RARing tippered bairs for KOs if all else fails me. If nothing else they're not tippers and they refresh whatever other move I'd find easier to land.
By conservatively I mean using shield more, being more tricky with their footsies/spacing more (running away, floating out of ranges, etc.) Marth has to be really patient if he wants the kill...DB will tack damage onto them and make them more nervous but I start using it less than say...DTilt, or grab. I have no trouble with getting the kill moves to kill, it's getting them to land that's the problem. Against certain characters it's rather difficult to get them to the ledge or in a juggle when they start playing evasively and using a lot of shield...but Shieldbreaker'ing those people is rather easy. RAR tipper BAir is ridiculously unsafe on block.
This game's shield is BROKEN. It comes out on frame 1, and chances are they will be shielding a LOT. Shield degeneration is faster but shield drop and shield drop punishments are FAST, and with Marth you can't really afford as much damage as say...GW on the horizontal scale and Snake on the vertical scale.
If they shield the DB is still a great option. In fact I think it's safer then grabs. Your opponent can't stay in the shield forever. When he drops it or sidesteps or jumps or rolls - you can DB. It takes, what, 4 frames to come out? There's nothing they can do. With a grab you have to get relatively close to your opponent (negating Marth's advantage over nearly everyone), and grabbing a shield leaves the possibility of a sidestep. Unlike Melee a dropped shield has almost no lag - attacking out of a shield with something like a pika dsmash is an option. I'd prefer to keep my distance. Don't get me wrong, I use Marth's grab quite a bit - probably more then I should - it's just the DB seems a lot safer.
Spacing at DB Tip means they can DI out at most percents
Therefore you space closer to Marth with DB.
Unless they have a pathetic grab range, you shield hit one, the Marth you're playing gets grabbed. In Marth dittos or vs. MK the option is also to UpB OOS.
I say that I use grabs and dtilts more but it's like...70% dtilts 30% grabs. Grab priority is broken in this game...so long as you have P4 slot you're A-OKay on the pressing Z close to them thing. If they spotdodge or roll then you're booped but that's why you mixup Grab, DTilt, SB and DB, works like a charm.
The best opponent I've played with my Marth mains MK. The matchup isn't as easy as some other but being above the opponent in a punishable position hasn't been a huge issue thus far. If he tries to shuttleloop you from below you have plenty of time to counter. If he tries to bait the counter be patient and fall comfortably to the ground :D The biggest problems for me when above seem to be rapid MK uairs - not sure how to deal with it yet. Anything else while still well above the ground, fastfall an airdodge. If he's just below you on the ground, counter seems like a viable option. I've countered quite a number of MK fsmashes (which hit above him).
Shuttle Loop from DIRECTLY below is not smart, I don't believe I've encountered an MK yet that uses this.
MK can get you in the air real easy with hit 3 of ftilt, his fantastic grab punishments, Tornado, Dsmash...
Also if he tries to bait the counter fall comfortably to the ground...LOL they'll just grab you instead, there is no comfort above MK.
Rapid UAirs you just have to take the damage and just...try and get away XD Fastfalling airdodges doesn't work w/ anybody vs. Marth, why would it work vs. MK? >__> MK is a speedier, shorter version of Marth with a slightly different set of tools.
I know my Marth is still very new and inexperienced, but that's the way I see it right now. Maybe your perspective will change when you learn to space consistently, or maybe I'm a huge nub and have yet to learn why the things I've mentioned are wrong.
"Spacing consistently" implies that spacing is all there is to killing w/ Marth.