Snake
*What is the ratio(95-5 in XYZ's favor?)this matchup, seriously, at high levels of play against someone with legitimate samus will end up at least
70-30 snake. Snake has a pretty solid advantage in the match and samus should expect to win maybe one fourth/fifth of the matches. however, most snakes will not know samus well and it will play for them at about (60-40) samus.
ok before I go further into all of this though let me make one
really important clarification.
It does not matter who you play in this matchup. not nearly as much as how much samus experience they have. I've played quite a few snakes actually and most of the time samus will win this matchup. why? because samus has a very high surprise factor in this matchup that if the other person isn't used to will get hit hard with spams, spikes, and her ledge capabilities.
Overall player skill is not always a good indication of how much you will win this matchup. what is though is how much samus experience the other player has plus their player abilities. I'm not going to lie to you, when you see most snakes in tourney you will win
most of the time. inexperienced snakes (with samus) are the easiest thing to take advantage of. however, when snake knows what he is doing he will **** in this matchup.
*What to watch out for(what tactics does XYZ do that we should avoid)
Utilit/KO moves
one of snake's biggest advantages in this matchup is his ko percentages. and the concept is simple, snake has like a million moves that can ko samus at low onstage percentages, and he can get to those percentage quickly. on the other hand snake is samus' second hardest ko percent in the entire game (behind ddd) and dtilt kos don't start until 150%+. for snake? he can ko samus at about 106% with his utilt (which has frightening range and speed), not to mention if he can pull off his fsmash somewhere. in a three stock match this means samus is already down about 150%. Realize his ko potential and don't play risky.
yes this means you have to be a ***** and spam/play the ledge. this isn't going to be an offensive battle for samus.
Nades/explosives
Nades are one of his more annoying aspects. he can cook them and throw them at you, or if you are being very spammy he can just throw them at you and you'll have to take the time to avoid the timed explosion. which gives him the time to approach (mortar slide maybe) while there is a lapse in your spams. He can also use them to counter your attacks by dropping them and shielding as you attack so it blows up in your face. its very effective.
Also on areas with platforms he can use his c4 to block off areas and have blow up above you. in smashville planting in on the platform gives him a moving c4. be careful when around them, keep in mind where they are, and if you want try to get him to blow them up when you are prepared.
Ledge Game
Speaking of nades, snake is one of the few people that has a very decent time edgeguarding samus. If samus has a great arsenal from here, snake has an equal arsenal at blocking her attacks.
-mortars can be fired from the ledge to off the ledge making samus have to time out her approaches and avoid being vulnerable on the ledge as well as preventing samus from fulljumping out of it.
-well placed mines can stop many of samuses approaches without first neutralizing them. Also its one of the most annoying things ever to shoot a full charged shot from the ledge and have it stop 2 cm from your opponent bc it hit a mine and was neutralized. Speaking of mines, if you see one ledgehop back and super missile. it will take care of it usually.
-mines and grenades near the ledge are also annoying for other reasons: if you try to zair through the ledge/stage samus will be hit by them usually bc her arm (which extends when zairing) will enter the hitbox. neutralize it first with a missile, or wait it out if its a nade. in stages like delfino and pkstadium 1 if you are coming from underneath the stage to attack and get hit this could also mean a spike->death.
-if samus comes up from the ledge with snake can do two things that are pretty devasting. 1. if he has a grenade he can drop it and escape back or shield, causing samus to hit it, take damage, and end up back on the ledge again. or 2. he can shield and grab her. samus has limited options out of his dthrow that he can take advantage of. also if he is near enough to the ledge he also has a cg with his dthrow.
-Snakes a lot of the time will jump and nair as she comes up, it is a four hit combo that ***** damage on her.
-finally, if samus is being extra ledge campy and snake is at a distance he can cook a nade and have it blow up right past the ledge. if you are vulnerable this means stage spike to death.
So the main point is. DONT UNDERESTIMATE his ledgeguarding potential. play smart, and most importantly play patiently. Samus can gain some damage here, but you have to play smart and use a variety of approaches/stalls. if you do samus can have an advantage here.
Damage
Even though snake is a bulky character don't underestimate how fast he can react and build damage. a single nair or utilt or grab/pummel, other seemingly small "combo" can build damage as fast if not faster than samuses combos. its pretty harsh when you just pull off something fancy like uair to fair to upb to see the damage gap just disappear bc snake pull off a simple nair combo or something else.
Avoid playing snake close range. his grab game is better and he can build damage much too quickly. try to keep spacing.
*What stages to ban and CP(give reasons why)
Don't pick battlefield! I know we all love this stage, but the fact is that snake will have an equal if not better time here
his c4s are effective on the platforms and he can punish people on the platforms well with utilts and nades. tempting but try to pick somewhere where samus has a better advantage.
My favorite stages for her are usually Final Destination and Delfino Plaza as counters. Pokemon stadium 1 is ok sometimes too bc it allows her a lot of places to tech and some pretty neat stage tricks. however, while i love up b to ffuair in the mountain part its not smart when snake can nikita or jump above you and drop a c4 in there. the windmill is good though for getting off chargeshots in between as well, and samus can roll through it.
Delfino is very good bc samus does excellent on the ledges, she can take advantage of the water part (with the pillars rising from the water) to spike him, and she can also be tricky and go offstage just a bit in the walkoff parts to mask a charge shot at snake or grab him when he is close by for an instant stock (very punishable though). Final Destination is my favorite though just bc it makes gameplay horizontal, gives you space, and minimizes his platform explosives game. samus can space easy here, the ledges are nice (not bf status but still) and there is plenty of room offstage to work with.
*How does samus win or do well(go into detail on how we beat XYZ)
Off ledge
This is an aspect that i think you can take advantage of most relatively inexp snakes on. they don't realize how much samus kills snake offlevel so they underestimate it. however against higher exp snakes, they will use the cypher to completely avoid offstage battles if they can and land on and within the stage. be prepared for snakes to try to avoid her range. This makes the battle an onstage one, and snake will usually win here. however, it is still a weak point for him. be prepared to attack his cypher if its in your range and expect him to try to avoid you by going over you. spam him at long distances and especially if he has to bomb jump.
Spamming
This is another aspect that looks better than it is. Snakes with good exp will crawl to go under most spams, and shield when necessary, as well as mix up nades at samus to cause lapses in her timing. he can gain ground fast with his slide and dash. however, samus still has a good advantage here and it is best to take advantage of when you are able to. Even if you spam yourself off the ledge to keep spacing that's ok. snake really gets damage in this fight close range. also mixup grabs and fairs into your spams to catch him and give yourself space again.
Spacing
Even though i said it above spacing is key to this matchup. be careful and patient in your approaches, snake can rack damage at close range very fast.
This makes samus looks like she is stalling and being evasive a lot of the time. however this is not the case. you have to take advantage of her advantages at long range and let yourself be pushed off the ledge. also try to force snake off the ledge. playing the middle of the map and closerange is where samus loses this matchup. don't be alarmed if time is running a lot. this is a defensive/slow match honestly and don't let he time sucker you into doing something risky that might end up giving snake a huge lead or ko.
*Overall, what do you feel? Any last bit of info that you might want to include should go in a section of its own or include it on your "how does samus win/do well"
I think that covers it lol so much!